Merge pull request #2 from schipsy/claude/objective-ramanujan-1f670b

wargame/scenarios/defense_ramp_up/agents.yaml

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+scenario_id: defense_ramp_up
+company_name: Westfalia Rüstungswerke AG
+rival_name: Katrin Ganswindt (Urgewald e.V.) coordinating the NBIM / ABP / Ethos divestment coalition
+industry: German defense industrial (ammunition, land systems — MDAX)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Maximilian Oberkirch)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Claudia Tenbruck, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      49, ex-Siemens Energy. 4 years at Westfalia. Owns IR,
+      capex plan, and the Norges Bank / ABP / Allianz GI investor
+      relationships. Her desk sees the daily ESG-screened fund
+      positions moving.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Execute a EUR 650M equity raise placed primarily with
+      government-adjacent (KfW, Land NRW top-up, sovereign-friendly
+      sovereigns) and strategic DE institutional (Allianz, DEKA),
+      deliberately reducing free-float exposure to ESG-screened
+      index funds before the AGM. Secondary: issue a EUR 800M
+      green-adjacent "transition" bond tied specifically to
+      Wolfhagen environmental-mitigation capex — creates an
+      SFDR-defensible narrative and locks in funding before
+      NBIM potentially excludes.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO media push that argues defense is ethical — legally
+      correct but would make the Norges Bank observation harder
+      to resolve quietly. Also: any COO-led posture that commits
+      to Wolfhagen ramp dates before the Hessen approval path
+      is clearer — capex locked in before approval is a credit
+      problem.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Capital-markets orientation. Will bring concrete placement
+      structures, bond maths, and NBIM/ABP language patterns.
+      Natural tension with COO Wiegand on capex timing; natural
+      ally of GC Kammer on regulatory sequencing.
+  - id: coo
+    label: Dr. Ansgar Wiegand, COO / Head of Operations
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      58, 28 years at Westfalia. Engineer. Grew up on the Unna
+      production floor. Personally committed the 420k-rounds
+      ramp plan to BAAINBw Präsidentin Korb in January. Has
+      machinist-level understanding of why Nitrochemie's
+      allocation matters more than any ESG vote.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Keep the 18-month ramp on schedule at any cost short of
+      compliance breach: (a) authorize Unna 24/6 shift pattern
+      for Q3, (b) trigger the Wolfhagen groundbreaking in Q4
+      regardless of Hessen political timeline (using the NRW
+      Land stake as a Plan B — move the plant to NRW), (c) open
+      Pretoria (ZA) Tier-2 line for non-EU-delivery volumes.
+      Has already had unofficial conversations with a second-source
+      Korean propellant supplier (Hanwha) that he wants authority
+      to progress.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO-level concession on ramp timing for ESG or community
+      reasons — would hand BAAINBw a reason to reallocate framework
+      volume to competitors. Also: a CHRO-led wage settlement
+      that slows hiring (IG Metall's Transformationsbonus would
+      add 7% to unit labour cost over 3 years if conceded).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operator, blunt, production-focused. Will bring throughput
+      numbers, line speeds, and gating constraints. Natural tension
+      with CFO Tenbruck (capital cost vs. execution speed) and
+      with Chief Sustainability Officer Voß (sustainability as
+      ramp-rate constraint).
+  - id: supply_chain
+    label: Dr. Paulina Fechner, Chief Supply Chain Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      44, ex-Airbus Defence. Owns the Nitrochemie, Thyssenkrupp
+      (specialty steel), DMG Mori and Trumpf (CNC tooling)
+      relationships. Has read the March 17 Nitrochemie allocation
+      letter five times. Knows Korea (Hanwha) can qualify in 9
+      months but requires NATO and BAFA approvals.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Authorize a two-track second-source strategy: (1) a formal
+      request to Nitrochemie Aschau's Schäfer plus a Swiss SECO
+      + EU Commission pre-notification to clear additional
+      allocation by Q3; (2) a parallel NATO qualification track
+      with Hanwha Aerospace (Korea) to deliver EUR 240M of
+      propellant from 2027 — hedging single-source risk that she
+      considers existential to the framework. Wants CEO authority
+      to sign a "memorandum of qualification intent" with
+      Hanwha within 30 days.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CFO-imposed capex freeze on the Hanwha qualification
+      spend (roughly EUR 40M over 18 months) before Q1 results.
+      The spend is small; the option value is enormous. Also:
+      any CEO public statement positioning Nitrochemie as a
+      reliable partner — would publicly weaken her leverage in
+      the allocation negotiation.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Precise, risk-aware, dual-use-literate. Will bring specific
+      regulatory articles and supplier relationship context.
+      Natural ally of COO Wiegand on ramp execution; tension
+      with CFO on capex timing.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Dr. Stefan Breitinger, CHRO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      52. Leads the IG Metall relationship with district secretary
+      Knut Giesler. Also owns the Unna Betriebsrat (Angela Henseler)
+      consultation track. Faces a 2,100-FTE ramp-hiring target and
+      a live Flächentarif negotiation simultaneously.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Close a two-piece labour settlement: (a) a 5.8% Flächentarif
+      increase + a one-time EUR 3,500 inflation-offset payment +
+      a narrower EUR 1.20/hour defense-complexity bonus, (b) in
+      exchange, Betriebsrat commitment to 24/6 shift patterns at
+      Unna AND a signed Wolfhagen hiring framework that gives IG
+      Metall a seat at the plant-siting consultation. Believes
+      IG Metall will actually support Wolfhagen if the seat is
+      credibly offered — the union's constituency is jobs, not
+      pacifism.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO-led Bundesverband (BDSV) speech that frames the labour
+      relationship as "national priority" rather than partnership
+      — would be read as leverage talk and harden Giesler's
+      negotiating position. Also: any unilateral COO move on
+      shift patterns before the Flächentarif is signed.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Consensus-oriented, relationship-driven. Will bring specific
+      settlement figures and union interlocutor positions. Natural
+      tension with COO on shift-pattern pre-commitment; natural
+      ally of the Chief Sustainability Officer on social-pillar
+      narrative.
+  - id: sustainability
+    label: Sabine Voß, Chief Sustainability Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      38, ex-Henkel. Created in 2023 specifically for the SFDR
+      Article 8 classification project. Holds the ESG-fund
+      engagement file. Has a direct relationship with APG's
+      Marieke van Dijk and with NBIM Ethics Council staff
+      (Ida Halvorsen).
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Convert the Norges Bank observation process from likely
+      exclusion to a 24-month continuation by delivering: (a)
+      an externally-reviewed "defense ethical framework" that
+      anticipates the Ethos AGM resolution by adopting a lighter
+      version of it voluntarily, (b) a published customer-nexus
+      policy (no deliveries to countries under active UN arms
+      embargo), and (c) a concrete Wolfhagen environmental
+      mitigation plan that is verifiable and adjacent to a
+      "just transition" narrative for the local community.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      COO Wiegand's "defense is ethical" framing — technically
+      defensible and tactically disastrous with the ESG desks.
+      Also: any CFO move that visibly engineers the shareholder
+      register to reduce ESG exposure — would be framed by
+      Urgewald as "evading stakeholder accountability" and
+      accelerate the coalition.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      ESG-language fluent, investor-relations-connected. Will
+      reference specific NBIM ethics guidelines and SFDR articles.
+      Natural tension with COO on ramp framing; natural ally of
+      CFO on investor-facing narrative.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Dr. Wolfgang Kammer, General Counsel
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      61, 18 years at Westfalia. Carries BAFA, BMWK, EU Commission
+      (DG DEFIS), and the US State Department / ITAR relationships.
+      Wrote the January filing on the framework contract
+      classification.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure in writing from BAAINBw Präsidentin Korb a formal
+      acknowledgement that (a) Wolfhagen timing slippage for
+      Hessen political reasons does not trigger penalty clauses,
+      and (b) secondary-source qualification for propellant is
+      customer-approved. Secondary: obtain a BAFA pre-clearance
+      letter on the Hanwha memorandum-of-intent that would allow
+      supply-chain to proceed with cover. Tertiary: confirm with
+      ITAR/US State Department that no US-origin components in
+      the 155mm design create a re-export hold.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Sustainability/Communications move that preempts the
+      BAAINBw dialogue on Wolfhagen flexibility — would burn
+      written-cover he is trying to negotiate. Also: any public
+      characterisation of the Hessen siting dispute that implies
+      the framework contract is renegotiable — would be picked
+      up by the BAAINBw political oversight and harden positions.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural, regulatory, careful. Will bring contract clause
+      language and regulatory-authority procedural context.
+      Natural ally of supply-chain Fechner on dual-use sequencing;
+      tension with Communications on disclosure timing.
+  - id: board_chair
+    label: Dr. Heinrich Oberkirch-Frommberg, Supervisory Board Chair (family trust)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      73. CEO's second cousin. Chairs the family trust that holds
+      18%. Old-school West German industrial culture. Does not
+      engage media. Has strong personal relationship with the
+      former NRW Minister-President now on the Allianz supervisory
+      board.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Preserve the family's intergenerational industrial asset
+      AND the Oberkirch name (both have 127-year continuity at
+      stake). Will back a credible ramp plan even at the cost
+      of capex stretch, but will not back a plan that creates
+      labour disruption severe enough to make the family name
+      locally toxic in Unna. Wants the CEO to present the
+      family trust with a coherent 3-year operating plan before
+      the AGM — not after.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO who manages this crisis through public media rather
+      than through direct board-level engagement. The Oberkirch
+      family culture treats supervisory-board engagement as the
+      primary governance instrument, not AGM theatre. Also: any
+      move that risks the Land NRW (12% stake) relationship —
+      that stake was placed in 2023 as strategic protection and
+      must not be lost.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Deliberate, culturally conservative. Will reference family
+      history and NRW political context. Natural ally of Land NRW
+      (represented through Vice Chair Brueggen) on governance
+      questions.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Katrin Ganswindt, Urgewald e.V. — coordinating the NBIM / ABP / Ethos divestment coalition
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      42. Campaign lead at Urgewald. Authored the Westfalia page
+      in the "Gun Lobby Disclosed" report. Networks operationally
+      with NBIM Ethics staff, APG governance, ATP, Ethos, and
+      the Bundestag Greens parliamentary group. Not hostile to
+      defense per se; hostile to ammunition escalation without
+      stakeholder accountability.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Three-track pressure campaign: (1) convert the NBIM
+      observation to formal exclusion by June, (2) catalyse ABP
+      + ATP + Swedish AP alignment with NBIM's exclusion — achieving
+      ~15% of free-float ESG-driven selling pressure before the
+      AGM, (3) win a ≥25% YES vote on the Ethos resolution at
+      the June 14 AGM. Secondary: make Wolfhagen plant approval
+      a Hessen CDU political risk — push Minister-President
+      Rhein to refuse or delay. A 25% AGM vote is a moral victory
+      that creates institutional precedent for every German
+      defense name.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      None (this is the adversary).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Strategic, media-sophisticated, coalition-coordinated. Times
+      announcements around investor meetings and parliamentary
+      sessions. Has strong journalist relationships at Spiegel,
+      taz, Zeit. If the CEO surprises her (e.g., a pre-emptive
+      ethical framework adoption that absorbs Ethos's demands),
+      the coalition re-focuses pressure on Wolfhagen siting.
+  - id: bundeswehr
+    label: Präsidentin Gabriele Korb, BAAINBw (Koblenz)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      57. Appointed 2022. Runs the framework contract from the
+      customer side. Has a Bundestag Verteidigungsausschuss
+      appearance scheduled in Turn 3 where she will be asked
+      whether "German industry is delivering on Zeitenwende."
+      Her answer shapes both Westfalia's political cover and her
+      career.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Publicly demonstrate that BAAINBw has 420,000-rounds
+      delivery visibility for 2027. Would accept a documented
+      ramp plan with conditional elements (secondary-source,
+      site flexibility, labour settlement timeline) if it is
+      concrete enough to stand behind in the Bundestag. Does not
+      want — at any cost — to stand up and say "our prime
+      supplier is facing structural delays."
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CEO-level public messaging that flags the Hessen plant
+      risk or the Nitrochemie chokepoint before BAAINBw has had
+      a chance to position on it with the ministry. Would force
+      her into a defensive Bundestag appearance.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Institutional customer. Will communicate primarily through
+      contract-track letters and the occasional ministerial
+      side-channel. Does not leak; tracks leaks from Westfalia
+      carefully. Natural counterpart: CEO, GC Kammer, COO
+      Wiegand.
+  - id: hessen_minister
+    label: Boris Rhein (CDU), Minister-President of Hessen (via his CdS Dr. Andreas Brand)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Minister-President navigating a Hessen-CDU coalition in a
+      Land where Kassel-district SPD/Greens are vocally opposed
+      to the Wolfhagen ammunition plant. Boris Rhein does not
+      personally engage below the Landtag level; his Chef der
+      Staatskanzlei Andreas Brand handles the Westfalia track.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Deliver Wolfhagen as a Hessen CDU win if Westfalia delivers:
+      (a) a binding environmental mitigation package (EUR 40–60M),
+      (b) a hiring-local commitment with IG Metall public support,
+      (c) a visible federal (BMWK or BAAINBw) co-announcement so
+      that Hessen is not the politically-exposed actor. Absent
+      those, Rhein will not commit publicly and will allow the
+      consultation to run long — quietly killing the site.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any Westfalia move that presents Wolfhagen as a national-security
+      fait accompli — would force Rhein to reject publicly.
+      Also: a CEO media appearance in Frankfurt or Wiesbaden
+      without a prior coordination call with the Staatskanzlei.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Political, coalition-navigating. Brand speaks for Rhein
+      except in moments of personal principal engagement. Signals
+      reach through FAZ-Rhein-Main and through the CDU/CSU
+      parliamentary group. Natural counterpart: CEO, GC Kammer,
+      CHRO Breitinger.
+  - id: ig_metall
+    label: Knut Giesler, IG Metall Nord-Westfalen (+ Angela Henseler, Unna Betriebsrat)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Giesler: district secretary, 54, coordinates Flächentarif
+      and site-level interests across NRW. Henseler: Unna
+      Betriebsrat chair, 51, 26 years on the Unna floor.
+      Filed the Warnstreik on March 5. Represents a workforce
+      that is pro-defense-jobs but fiercely protective of the
+      Flächentarif and Betriebsrat consultation rights.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a Flächentarif settlement of at least 6.5% + EUR
+      2.00/hour defense complexity bonus + a Transformationsfonds
+      tied to the Wolfhagen hiring build-up. Secondary: obtain
+      a Betriebsvereinbarung (site-level agreement) that makes
+      IG Metall the first-mover partner on the Wolfhagen
+      Betriebsrat election once the plant opens — entrenching
+      the union's role in the new capacity. Will trade flexibility
+      on shift patterns for that.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CHRO Breitinger offering Wolfhagen as a non-union-by-default
+      greenfield — would collapse the negotiation. Also: any
+      CEO BDSV speech that frames the workforce as "the
+      patriotic backbone" — rhetoric that Giesler reads as
+      preparation for a givings-without-getting ask.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Negotiation-structured, politically-connected (SPD),
+      pragmatic. Will bring specific settlement figures and
+      shop-floor mood intelligence. Communicates through
+      Flächentarif cycle and occasional media quote.
+  - id: media
+    label: Michael Ashelm, FAZ (defense) + Thomas Sigmund, Handelsblatt + Sabine Siebold, Reuters + Matthias Gebauer, Spiegel
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ashelm set the frame with the March 26 "3x moment" profile;
+      Sigmund has the Berlin political read; Siebold does the
+      international defense-market lens; Gebauer runs Spiegel's
+      security-critical angle (will do the Urgewald-sympathetic
+      story).
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Move the story from "Westfalia under pressure" to one of:
+      (a) "Westfalia delivers" — concrete ramp+AGM narrative
+      wins, (b) "Westfalia negotiates" — the CEO navigates ESG
+      and political friction with visible tradeoffs, or (c)
+      "Westfalia unravels" — Norges excludes + Hessen refuses
+      + IG Metall strikes. Ashelm wants a proper CEO interview
+      (he has been promised one three times); Gebauer is
+      writing a cover story either way and would prefer (c).
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CEO messaging that reduces a multi-dimensional industrial
+      and geopolitical story to a single "national security"
+      frame — Ashelm considers this under-serving of the actual
+      complexity. Also: any press response that shuts down the
+      Wolfhagen or Nitrochemie lines of inquiry without offering
+      substance — journalists will simply go to IG Metall,
+      Urgewald, and Nitrochemie directly.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Mix of sector-specialists and high-profile generalists.
+      FAZ/Handelsblatt set the business frame; Reuters the
+      international; Spiegel the critical. Will quote, fact-check,
+      and will write what they find.

wargame/scenarios/defense_ramp_up/initial_state.json

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+{
+  "company_name": "Westfalia Rüstungswerke AG",
+  "rival_name": "Katrin Ganswindt (Urgewald e.V.) coordinating the NBIM / ABP / Ethos divestment coalition",
+  "industry": "German defense industrial (ammunition, land systems — MDAX)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€M, FY2024)", "value": 4800.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "order_backlog", "label": "Order backlog (€B)", "value": 19.2, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 9.4 },
+    { "key": "current_capacity_155mm", "label": "155mm capacity (rounds/yr, current)", "value": 140000.0, "unit": "rounds/yr", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "target_capacity_155mm", "label": "155mm capacity target (rounds/yr, end 18mo)", "value": 420000.0, "unit": "rounds/yr", "delta_last_turn": 280000.0 },
+    { "key": "propellant_coverage_pct", "label": "Propellant allocation vs target (%)", "value": 43.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 43.0 },
+    { "key": "hiring_gap_fte", "label": "Open FTE to fill for ramp", "value": 2100.0, "unit": "FTE", "delta_last_turn": 2100.0 },
+    { "key": "esg_fund_float_pct", "label": "ESG-screened holders as % of free float", "value": 23.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "divestment_risk_index", "label": "ESG divestment coalition momentum", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=AGM loss", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "wolfhagen_approval_index", "label": "Wolfhagen siting approval likelihood", "value": 2.0, "unit": "0=blocked 4=approved", "delta_last_turn": -1.0 },
+    { "key": "ig_metall_alarm", "label": "IG Metall / Betriebsrat alarm", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=unlimited strike", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "share_price", "label": "Share price (€)", "value": 286.40, "unit": "€", "delta_last_turn": -34.60 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 58.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -13.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "mixed",
+  "public_narrative": "FAZ's Michael Ashelm framed the current moment as Westfalia's 'triple-or-trip' 3x ramp challenge in his March 26 profile. Handelsblatt's Dörner is covering the capital-markets read. Reuters's Siebold is tracking the Bundeswehr framework delivery. Spiegel's Gebauer is writing a critical cover piece. Urgewald's Ganswindt is coordinating a multi-investor ESG coalition (NBIM observation, ABP review, Ethos AGM resolution). Hessen Minister-President Rhein is withholding public commitment on Wolfhagen. IG Metall staged a Warnstreik on March 5 and has a live Flächentarif demand. Jefferies downgraded Westfalia to Hold on March 22. No CEO media appearance since the BDSV Jahresempfang in January.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "January 17 — Bundeswehr/BAAINBw signed €9.4B 155mm framework (420k rounds/yr by end 18mo); current capacity 140k/yr.",
+    "January 24 — Westfalia 2024 sustainability report classified defense under SFDR Article 8; Urgewald rebuttal the following week.",
+    "February 4 — Urgewald 'Gun Lobby Disclosed' report named Westfalia alongside Rheinmetall and KNDS.",
+    "February 11 — Norges Bank Investment Management Ethics Council opened formal observation procedure on Westfalia.",
+    "February 20 — Hessen CDU Landtag opened consultation on Wolfhagen plant; Minister-President Rhein declined public commitment.",
+    "February 28 — ABP (Dutch pension) announced preliminary review of defense-sector holdings.",
+    "March 5 — IG Metall Nord-Westfalen Warnstreik at Unna (4 hours, 3,800 workers); demand 7.4% + €2.50/hour defense bonus.",
+    "March 12 — Ethos Foundation filed AGM resolution requesting external ethical framework review.",
+    "March 17 — Nitrochemie Aschau AG allocation letter: current allocation covers only 180k rounds/yr, not 420k; further allocation requires Swiss SECO + plausibly EU Commission notification.",
+    "March 22 — Jefferies (Chris Hallam) downgraded Westfalia from Buy to Hold on converging execution + ESG risks.",
+    "March 26 — FAZ (Michael Ashelm) 'Westfalia's 3x moment: can Unna triple without tripping?' profile.",
+    "March 28 — Der Spiegel's Matthias Gebauer requested a CEO interview for a cover-story piece on 'Europe's new arsenals.'",
+    "March 30 — CEO Dr. Maximilian Oberkirch has not given a media interview since the January BDSV Jahresempfang."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/defense_ramp_up/world_bible.md

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+# Westfalia Rüstungswerke AG — Zeitenwende Ramp-Up World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2022–2025 German defense-industrial
+> boom after the Zeitenwende speech — the Rheinmetall 155mm framework
+> dynamics, the Wolfhagen Lower-Saxony plant-siting controversies,
+> Norges Bank and large ESG-fund observation/divestment processes on
+> defense, IG Metall defense-sector wage pressure, and EU/ITAR dual-use
+> chokepoints on propellants. Names, numbers, and events are invented.
+> Do not treat as a reference to any real company or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Westfalia Rüstungswerke AG (Unna, North Rhine-Westphalia;
+  listed on the Frankfurt MDAX; ticker **WRW.DE**).
+- **Revenue (group)**: EUR 4.8B (FY2024, +61% YoY on Zeitenwende
+  orders). **EBIT**: EUR 760M. **Order backlog**: EUR 19.2B (three
+  years of revenue coverage).
+- **Employees**: 12,400 (Unna HQ, Wolfhagen pilot line, Kassel
+  testing, Bremerhaven naval, Pretoria ZA subsidiary).
+- **Business mix**: 58% ammunition (155mm, 120mm tank, small arms);
+  22% land vehicles (IFV subassemblies); 12% naval systems; 8% air
+  defense components.
+- **Ownership**: 18% Oberkirch family trust (founder descendants);
+  12% Land Nordrhein-Westfalen (post-2023 strategic stake);
+  24% institutional international (including Norges Bank 5.1%,
+  APG 3.2%, ABP 2.4%, ATP 1.9%, AP Funds 1.4%, Ethos-advised 0.6%);
+  8% DE institutional (Allianz, DekaBank); 38% free float retail +
+  other.
+- **ESG fund ownership as % of float**: approximately **23%**.
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Maximilian Oberkirch**, 56. Appointed 2020. Family
+  descendant (great-grandson of the 1897 founder) but holds only a
+  small personal stake (trust governs the family holding). Engineer
+  by training; PhD from RWTH Aachen. Public profile: conservative,
+  low-media, known as an operator.
+
+## The disrupting event (10 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **January 17**: Bundeswehr procurement agency **BAAINBw** (Koblenz,
+  Präsident Gabriele Korb) and Westfalia signed the **"Rahmenvertrag
+  155mm Mehrzweckmunition 2026–2029"** — a EUR 9.4B framework
+  contract for up to **420,000 rounds/year** of 155mm multi-purpose
+  artillery ammunition, delivery start Q1 2026, full-rate production
+  from Q3 2026. Current Westfalia 155mm capacity: **140,000 rounds/
+  year**. Required ramp: 3× within 18 months.
+- **January 24**: Westfalia published its 2024 sustainability report
+  and classified its defense revenue under **SFDR Article 8**
+  ("promoting environmental or social characteristics"). The
+  classification triggered same-day research notes from two ESG
+  research houses, and a public rebuttal from **Urgewald** the
+  following week.
+- **February 4**: *Urgewald* published the annual "Gun Lobby
+  Disclosed" report naming 18 European defense primes. Westfalia
+  appeared alongside Rheinmetall, KNDS, and Leonardo. The specific
+  Westfalia page cited the 155mm framework and the Wolfhagen plant
+  plan.
+- **February 11**: **Norges Bank Investment Management** (NBIM)
+  Ethics Council announced the formal opening of an **observation
+  procedure** against Westfalia under its defense-exclusion
+  framework. Observation is not divestment — it is a 6–12 month
+  review that can result in exclusion or continuation.
+- **February 20**: **Landtag Hessen CDU-led coalition** opened a
+  formal consultation on the proposed Wolfhagen (Kassel district)
+  greenfield ammunition plant. Minister-President Boris Rhein
+  (CDU) publicly declined to commit, citing "open questions about
+  environmental impact and community acceptance."
+- **February 28**: **ABP** (Dutch pension) announced a preliminary
+  review of its defense-sector holdings, citing "evolving
+  stakeholder expectations" — investor-relations channels read
+  this as pre-divestment positioning.
+- **March 5**: **IG Metall Nord-Westfalen** filed a Warnstreik
+  (4-hour warning strike) at the Unna Hauptwerk over Flächentarif
+  wage negotiation — 7.4% demand plus a **EUR 2.50/hour defense-sector
+  complexity bonus**. 3,800 Unna workers participated.
+- **March 12**: **Ethos Foundation** (Geneva) filed a shareholder
+  proposal for the **June 14 AGM** asking the supervisory board to
+  commission an **external ethical framework review** of Westfalia's
+  defense portfolio — a first for a German MDAX defense name.
+- **March 17**: Propellant single-source supplier **Nitrochemie
+  Aschau AG** (Swiss; majority RUAG International) sent Westfalia
+  a formal allocation letter citing EU dual-use regulation
+  (EU 2021/821) constraints — current allocation covers only
+  180,000 155mm rounds/year, not the full 420,000. CEO of
+  Nitrochemie, **Dr. Christoph Schäfer**, indicated in a private
+  call that additional allocation would require a Swiss SECO
+  review plus (plausibly) an EU Commission notification.
+- **March 22**: *Jefferies* analyst **Chris Hallam** downgraded
+  Westfalia from Buy to Hold, flagging "multiple execution and ESG
+  overhang risks converging into Q2."
+- **March 26**: *FAZ*'s defense correspondent **Michael Ashelm**
+  published a 2,400-word profile piece: "*Westfalia's 3x moment:
+  can Unna triple without tripping?*" The piece named Wolfhagen,
+  the Nitrochemie chokepoint, the IG Metall demand, and the ESG
+  observation as converging pressure points.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Maximilian Oberkirch, CEO. Scheduled appearances: BDSV
+  (Bundesverband der Deutschen Sicherheits- und Verteidigungsindustrie)
+  annual in Berlin (Turn 1); Bundestag Verteidigungsausschuss
+  hearing (Turn 3); Westfalia AGM (Turn 5 — June 14 falls inside
+  the arc).
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Katrin Ganswindt**, 42. Campaign lead, Urgewald e.V.
+  (Sassenberg/NRW). Authored the "Gun Lobby Disclosed" Westfalia
+  page. Coordinates loosely but effectively with NBIM Ethics
+  Council staff, ABP governance team, and Ethos Foundation. Has a
+  direct channel to German Greens parliamentary group and to the
+  Bundestag Petitionsausschuss.
+- **Core posture**: convert the Norges Bank observation procedure
+  into formal exclusion by June, and catalyse ABP/ATP/AP-fund
+  alignment, reaching an ESG-driven free-float selling pressure of
+  ~15% of shares before the Westfalia AGM. Secondary: make the
+  Wolfhagen plant-siting a national debate that forces the Hessen
+  CDU to refuse — thereby stalling the framework-contract ramp and
+  forcing Westfalia to negotiate a smaller, older-site-based path.
+  Tertiary: win the Ethos AGM resolution as a minority moral
+  victory that creates a permanent governance precedent for German
+  defense.
+- **Leverage**: media cycle, German public-sector and large-European
+  ESG investor relationships, coordinated NGO campaign
+  infrastructure, Ethos governance framework, and a fundamentally
+  sympathetic German-and-Dutch public mood on defense proliferation.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Maximilian Oberkirch** — CEO.
+- **Claudia Tenbruck** — CFO. 49, ex-Siemens Energy. 4 years at
+  Westfalia. Owns the capital-markets, capex, and NBIM-and-ABP
+  investor-relations files.
+- **Dr. Ansgar Wiegand** — COO / Head of Operations. 58, 28 years
+  at Westfalia. Owns the ramp-up plan: Unna expansion, Wolfhagen
+  greenfield, Pretoria (ZA) Tier-2 line consideration.
+- **Dr. Paulina Fechner** — Chief Supply Chain Officer. 44,
+  ex-Airbus Defence. Owns Nitrochemie, steel (Thyssenkrupp), and
+  machine-tool (DMG Mori, Trumpf) relationships.
+- **Dr. Stefan Breitinger** — CHRO. 52. Leads Flächentarif
+  negotiations with IG Metall Nord-Westfalen district secretary
+  **Knut Giesler**.
+- **Sabine Voß** — Chief Sustainability Officer. 38, ex-Henkel.
+  Created in 2023 specifically for the SFDR-Article-8
+  classification project.
+- **Dr. Wolfgang Kammer** — General Counsel. Carries the BAFA
+  (export control), BMWK, EU Commission, and ITAR (US export)
+  relationships.
+
+### Board / governance
+- **Dr. Heinrich Oberkirch-Frommberg** — Chair of supervisory board
+  (unpaid, 73, CEO's second cousin, family trust representative).
+- **Dr. Christine Brueggen** — Vice chair; represents Land NRW's
+  12% stake.
+- **Prof. Dr. Ursula Ratzinger** — Independent director; defense
+  policy academic.
+- **Dr. Philip Jackson** — Independent director; ex-BAE Systems
+  strategy head (the "international adult" on the board).
+
+### Customer / regulator
+- **BAAINBw (Koblenz)** — Präsidentin **Gabriele Korb**. Owns
+  the framework contract. Under clear political pressure to deliver
+  the 420,000/year target; will not sympathize publicly with
+  capacity delays.
+- **BMWK / BAFA** — export control; owns licences for non-NATO
+  deliveries and dual-use clearances.
+- **EU Commission DG DEFIS** — monitoring; supportive of ramp but
+  constrained by EU-wide dual-use regime.
+- **Land Hessen (Wolfhagen siting)** — Minister-President **Boris
+  Rhein** (CDU); Kassel district Landrat **Dr. Regina Rutenberg**
+  (SPD — opposed to the plant on environmental grounds).
+
+### Investors
+- **Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) Ethics Council** —
+  chair referenced as "the NBIM Ethics Council" in statements;
+  staff-level contact is **Dr. Ida Halvorsen**.
+- **APG Asset Management (NL)** — senior responsible-investing
+  contact **Marieke van Dijk**.
+- **Ethos Foundation (Geneva)** — director **Vincent Kaufmann**;
+  filed the AGM resolution.
+- **Allianz Global Investors DE** — portfolio manager **Dr. Peter
+  Langenstein**; largest domestic institutional holder; publicly
+  pro-defense but governance-sensitive.
+
+### Labour
+- **IG Metall Nord-Westfalen** — district secretary **Knut Giesler**.
+- **Unna Betriebsrat chair** — **Angela Henseler**.
+
+### Media
+- **FAZ** — Michael Ashelm (defense).
+- **Handelsblatt** — Thomas Sigmund (Berlin politics);
+  Astrid Dörner (capital markets defense).
+- **Reuters** — Sabine Siebold (defense).
+- **Bloomberg** — Oliver Sachgau (Frankfurt).
+- **Der Spiegel** — Matthias Gebauer (defense/security).
+- **Sell-side coverage** — Jefferies (Chris Hallam); JPMorgan
+  (David Perry); Berenberg (Philipp Friedrich).
+
+## Regulatory / operational landscape
+
+- **EU 2021/821 (Dual-Use Regulation)**: governs propellant,
+  precursor, and specialist-steel cross-border transfer within and
+  from the EU. Switzerland participates via bilateral agreement.
+  Reallocations above a notified threshold trigger Commission
+  notification.
+- **German Außenwirtschaftsgesetz (AWG) + AWV**: BAFA (Eschborn)
+  authorizes exports. BAAINBw is the customer, not the export
+  authoriser; deliveries to third countries (e.g. Ukraine) go
+  through BAFA.
+- **SFDR Article 8 vs. Article 9**: defense is not per se excluded
+  under SFDR, but falls under scrutiny. Article 8 classification
+  requires ongoing evidencing; ESG-fund holders are asking for it.
+- **Labour relations (BetrVG)**: the Unna Betriebsrat has
+  consultation rights on ramp-up shift patterns, Wolfhagen hiring
+  plans, and the Flächentarif settlement mechanics.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn ≈ 7 days. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- BDSV Berlin annual + CEO keynote slot: **Turn 1**.
+- Hessen Landtag environmental consultation session: **Turn 2**.
+- Bundestag Verteidigungsausschuss hearing: **Turn 3**.
+- Q1 earnings release: **Turn 4**.
+- Westfalia AGM (Ethos resolution vote): **Turn 5 — June 14**.
+- NBIM observation decision window: extends past the arc (June–September).
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- Norges Bank has NOT divested from Westfalia (observation, not
+  exclusion).
+- The Wolfhagen plant has not been approved or rejected (consultation
+  is live).
+- Westfalia has not announced any second-source propellant contract.
+- IG Metall has not called an unlimited strike (Warnstreik only so
+  far).
+- The Bundeswehr has not threatened contract reduction in any formal
+  channel.
+- The Oberkirch family trust has not publicly commented on the AGM
+  resolution.
+- Ethos Foundation's resolution is not binding on the board.
+- Westfalia has not received any US (ITAR-side) export warnings
+  on US-origin components.

wargame/scenarios/energy_supply_shock/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
+scenario_id: energy_supply_shock
+company_name: Donau Energie AG
+rival_name: Transgazprom OAO (EU Commercial Director Viktor Sokolov)
+industry: Gas trading, generation & regulated distribution (Austria / EU)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Reinhard Pötsch)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Dr. Sabine Huber, CFO (Vorstand Finanzen)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-Erste Group markets CFO. 4 years at Donau. Holds the relationship
+      with the three core lender banks (Erste, RBI, UniCredit Austria)
+      and signed the EUR 1.9B bridge drawdown last month.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Close a funding structure that keeps Donau out of a cross-default on
+      the EUR 4.2B derivative exposure. Privately willing to accept the
+      89% federal dilution if the alternative is a rating downgrade
+      below BB and a margin-call spiral. Wants the private insurers' block
+      preserved as a non-state anchor.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO statement that hints Donau can "trade its way out" without
+      state support — would collapse the repo collateral treatment at
+      ECB and trigger covenant review inside 48 hours.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Numerate, cold-eyed. Will produce daily liquidity bridges on demand.
+      Natural ally of the supervisory board chair on dilution pragmatism;
+      natural tension with CMO and with Betriebsrat over austerity.
+  - id: cto
+    label: Dr. Heinrich Mayer, COO (Vorstand Technik & Netze)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Lifer — 26 years at Donau, started as a gas-turbine engineer in
+      Mellach. Runs storage, pipelines, and CCGT fleet. Knows every
+      compressor station personally.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure EUR 2.1B of capex approvals for hydrogen-ready upgrades at
+      three CCGTs and a Haidach storage expansion — he sees the crisis as
+      the one window to re-industrialize the asset base for a post-Russian
+      future. Wants a supply-diversification story the CEO can take to
+      Brussels.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A fire-sale of storage or CCGT assets to fund the bailout. Views
+      selling Haidach II as generational asset-stripping; would consider
+      resigning.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Technical authority in the room. Strong Betriebsrat relationships.
+      Will push to anchor the supply story in concrete LNG, Norwegian
+      pipeline, and hydrogen commitments.
+  - id: cmo
+    label: Lukas Fellner, Chief Commercial & Communications Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-OMV corporate affairs. Speaks daily to Renate Graber at
+      Der Standard and Boris Groendahl at Bloomberg. Maintains the
+      voestalpine and Wienerberger CEO hotlines.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Craft an "Austrian energy champion weathering force majeure" story
+      that survives the bailout announcement. Wants the CEO on ORF
+      **Zeit im Bild 2** within 72 hours with a supply-security pledge,
+      not a victim narrative.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Legal-reviewed-into-blandness press statements. CEO appearances that
+      admit counter-party pain without naming Transgazprom's force majeure
+      as the cause. Silence while the bailout term sheet leaks.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will push for fast, specific public moves. Natural ally of CTO on
+      the supply-diversification story; natural tension with CFO on any
+      communication that complicates refinancing optics.
+  - id: cro
+    label: Elena Wagner, Chief Risk Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Joined 18 months ago from E.ON risk. Owns the derivative book, the
+      VaR model, and the daily 07:00 risk report that lands on the
+      Chancellor's chief of staff desk.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Close the EUR 4.2B net derivative exposure down to EUR 1.5B within
+      two turns, ideally via a novation to a federal backstop vehicle.
+      Believes that the derivative book — not the physical contract — is
+      the thing that triggers a disorderly default.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO or CFO decision that commits to new LNG spot purchases
+      without a hedged take-or-pay offsetting contract. Increases the
+      mark-to-market exposure at the worst possible moment.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Precise. Will cite specific VaR numbers and collateral-call
+      triggers. Ally of CFO on liquidity; tension with CTO on physical
+      positioning moves that worsen the derivative book.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Dr. Marion Steiner, CHRO & Betriebsrat liaison
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      14 years at Donau. Direct relationship with Ingrid Krenn
+      (Baumgarten Betriebsrat chair, VIDA) and the GPA private-sector
+      union leadership. Trusted by all three plant works councils.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Lock in a "no compulsory redundancies through 2027" commitment
+      covering all 4,800 employees. Sees the bailout as the moment to
+      secure job protection language in writing — before the federal
+      stake reaches 89% and political economy shifts.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any "restructuring" talk in exec committee or to press that
+      precedes a Betriebsrat summit. Even if no layoffs are actually
+      planned, the word itself triggers a union mobilisation.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will convene the Baumgarten works-council consultation in 48 hours.
+      Ally of CTO on protecting operational assets and people; natural
+      tension with CFO on any cost-take-out narrative.
+  - id: board
+    label: Supervisory Board — Chair Dr. Claudia Öllerer + ÖBAG rep Dr. Klaus Lehmann
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Chair Öllerer is ex-OeNB Vice Governor, independent. Lehmann
+      represents the 62% federal stake (post-bailout: 89%). Private
+      insurers (VIG, UNIQA) each hold one board seat. The board is
+      split along the shape, not the existence, of the bailout.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Öllerer wants a governance arrangement that survives the federal
+      stake going to 89%: an independent majority on the supervisory
+      board and a written undertaking that politically-directed
+      commercial decisions require supervisory-board consent.
+      Lehmann wants the bailout signed before the next EU Council
+      summit so the Finance Minister can walk in with Austria's
+      situation contained.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Öllerer: a Chancellor's-office-directed commercial action (e.g. a
+      forced price cap) that bypasses the board. Lehmann: a CEO signal
+      of resistance to the 89% dilution term.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will apply time pressure every turn. Will reward moves that
+      preserve both governance independence and federal optionality.
+      Implicit leverage: Öllerer can convene an extraordinary board
+      session within 24 hours.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Viktor Sokolov, EU Commercial Director, Transgazprom OAO
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      48 years old. Moscow-based. Ex-Rosneft EU trader. Speaks German,
+      English, French. Fifth meeting with EU counterparties in four
+      weeks; carries explicit political cover from the Kremlin's energy
+      diplomacy staff.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Drag Donau into Paris ICC arbitration that lasts 28 months. Claim
+      Donau's EUR 1.7B prepayment as a termination penalty. Keep the
+      door ajar for a partial flows-restoration in exchange for a
+      re-denominated ruble contract — a template Transgazprom wants to
+      apply to three other EU buyers.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Donau public statement that names the 2018 Side Letter as
+      fabricated, or that coordinates with DG ENER's AggregateEU
+      procurement platform — breaks the bilateral leverage. A German
+      government intervention on Austria's behalf that Brussels backs
+      with a coordinated counter-measure.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Maintains a private multi-turn plan drafted at game start. Only
+      revises when surprised (plausibility >= 4). Prefers moves that
+      force Donau into public contradictions (e.g. publicly refusing
+      ruble payment while privately considering it). Loves leaked
+      cables; every major move gets a corresponding Bloomberg tip.
+  - id: regulator
+    label: Austrian & EU Regulator Watch — E-Control + DG COMP + DG ENER
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Three voices merged:
+      - **Wolfgang Urbantschitsch (E-Control)** — Austrian energy
+        regulator; approves retail tariffs, allocates emergency gas.
+      - **Dr. Ingrid Lindeman (DG COMP)** — TCTF state-aid case team
+        lead. Will clear the bailout if structured under Article 107(3)(b)
+        but will impose behavioural conditions.
+      - **DG ENER** — running AggregateEU. Offers collective bargaining
+        power but imposes transparency obligations.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      E-Control: ensure no supply-allocation decision reads as
+      politically captured. Lindeman: a clean TCTF approval that
+      establishes the template for the next three EU bailouts. DG ENER:
+      more buyers joining AggregateEU signals a coordinated EU posture.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Austrian government pressure to cap industrial gas prices without
+      equivalent compensation mechanism (E-Control). A bailout term
+      sheet that pre-commits Donau to any commercial action without DG
+      COMP sign-off. A bilateral Donau–Norwegian pipeline deal that
+      undercuts AggregateEU's negotiating position.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Issues information requests first, rulings second. E-Control most
+      responsive to named industrial customer testimony (voestalpine).
+      DG COMP responds to specific capital-structure proposals and
+      behavioural commitments. DG ENER activates on concrete procurement
+      volumes.
+  - id: enterprise_customer
+    label: Industrial Customer Cluster (voiced by voestalpine CFO Dr. Gerald Mayrhofer)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Represents voestalpine, Wienerberger, Mondi, Borealis, Stadt Wien
+      Fernwärme, OMV Chemicals collectively. Voestalpine's CFO has been
+      the public face of industrial gas-cost anxiety for 8 weeks. AK
+      and IV have stood up a joint crisis cell.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      A written industrial-customer price cap or pass-through mechanism,
+      politically sanctioned, that holds Donau commercially harmless via
+      a federal cost-sharing vehicle. Secondary: a public statement from
+      Donau that confirms supply through end-Q4, in nominated volumes.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Donau silence, or price-volatility language that allows Donau
+      commercial discretion without a customer-price floor. A bailout
+      announcement that doesn't simultaneously announce industrial-
+      customer relief.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will credibly threaten a production stop (Kurzarbeit at
+      voestalpine sites) by Turn 3 if no visible relief lands. Relations
+      with Finance Minister Holzmann directly. Will reward a coordinated
+      CEO + government announcement.
+  - id: media
+    label: Media & Analyst Consortium (Der Standard / Die Presse / Bloomberg / Trend)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Four voices merged:
+      - **Renate Graber (Der Standard)** — broke the bailout terms; has
+        sources inside both ÖBAG and the CFO office.
+      - **Josef Urschitz (Die Presse)** — business-sympathetic, skeptical
+        of dilution scale.
+      - **Andreas Weber (Trend magazine)** — long-form weekly; shapes
+        insider chatter.
+      - **Boris Groendahl (Bloomberg Vienna)** — market-moving; feeds
+        sell-side.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Graber wants the next leak — specifically whether Transgazprom's
+      2018 Side Letter exists. Urschitz wants a nuanced editorial
+      crystallising the dilution-vs-default tradeoff. Weber wants the
+      boardroom deliberation scene. Groendahl wants the derivative-book
+      number. Whoever delivers the winning narrative carries the week.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Press releases without a named executive and a specific number.
+      CEO silence on whether the 89% dilution is accepted. Trans-
+      gazprom's claims repeated uncritically (Graber). Legal hedging
+      language that ruins a quote (all four).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Graber breaks stories; Groendahl moves the stock; Weber sets
+      insider consensus; Urschitz writes the consensus editorial. Will
+      reward specific, named, numerical CEO statements; will punish
+      silence or corporate-speak.
+  - id: minister
+    label: Finance Minister Dr. Andrea Holzmann (ÖVP, BMF)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Has convened the federal energy-crisis task force daily since
+      February 27. Owns the bailout term sheet personally. Answers to
+      the Chancellor's office and — through coalition dynamics — to
+      the Greens on the climate-conditionality angle.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Get the 11.5B bailout signed, DG COMP-approved, and politically
+      defensible before the next federal budget cycle. Secondary:
+      secure a re-denomination of the Transgazprom contract that saves
+      Austria's face vs Germany's more aggressive stance. Tertiary:
+      keep opposition parties from forcing a parliamentary inquiry.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CEO public statements that pre-commit Donau to bailout terms
+      she hasn't cleared with DG COMP. Donau commercial actions (new
+      LNG contracts, supply deals with third parties) that worsen the
+      state-aid package's DG COMP optics. Any leak from Donau's board
+      that makes the Finance Ministry look captured.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Fast escalator. Will call Chair Öllerer before calling the CEO.
+      Responds to specific, sequenced proposals. Will pressure the CEO
+      through Lehmann (ÖBAG) before going public. Has a standing
+      Chancellor's-office briefing Thursdays at 06:30.

wargame/scenarios/energy_supply_shock/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Donau Energie AG",
+  "rival_name": "Transgazprom OAO (EU Commercial Director Viktor Sokolov)",
+  "industry": "Gas trading, generation & regulated distribution (Austria / EU)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€B)", "value": 18.4, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "ebitda", "label": "EBITDA (€M, pre-shock run-rate)", "value": 720.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": -280.0 },
+    { "key": "derivative_exposure_net", "label": "Derivative book net MTM (€B)", "value": 4.2, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 3.1 },
+    { "key": "storage_fill", "label": "Gas storage fill level (%)", "value": 41.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -27.0 },
+    { "key": "contract_flow_pct", "label": "Transgazprom flow vs contract (%)", "value": 0.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -100.0 },
+    { "key": "stock_price", "label": "Share price (€)", "value": 14.80, "unit": "€", "delta_last_turn": -7.60 },
+    { "key": "federal_stake_pct", "label": "Federal (ÖBAG) stake — post-bailout proposal", "value": 62.0, "unit": "% (pre-dilution)", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "rating_notch", "label": "S&P rating headroom to HY", "value": 1.0, "unit": "notches above BB+", "delta_last_turn": -2.0 },
+    { "key": "industrial_customer_pressure", "label": "Industrial customer pressure index", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=Kurzarbeit filings", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "betriebsrat_alarm", "label": "Betriebsrat alarm level", "value": 2.0, "unit": "0=calm 3=critical", "delta_last_turn": 1.0 },
+    { "key": "political_patience", "label": "BMF / Chancellery patience index", "value": 55.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -25.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 58.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -22.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "Der Standard's front-page framing is 'Austria's gas champion goes begging to the state.' Die Presse has run a more nuanced piece on the Transgazprom force majeure legal posture. Bloomberg is tracking the EUR 4.2B derivative book as the next flash point — sell-side at Citi and Erste now publish daily margin-call updates. Opposition parties have requested an emergency parliamentary session on the 89% dilution ask. The CEO has not yet taken questions.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "February 4 — Transgazprom invokes force majeure, cutting flows to 17% of contract.",
+    "February 11 — Transgazprom demands ruble-denominated payment via a sanctioned Moscow bank; Austrian government instructs refusal.",
+    "February 26 — Flows go to zero. Storage begins rapid drawdown.",
+    "March 14 — Donau draws EUR 1.9B of committed bank lines to buy spot LNG at loss; MTM derivative book reaches EUR 4.2B net.",
+    "March 28 — Finance Minister Holzmann circulates draft term sheet: EUR 6B liquidity + EUR 5.5B equity injection diluting public + private holders, federal stake goes to 89%.",
+    "April 2 — Der Standard (Renate Graber) breaks bailout terms on page A1. Stock falls 34% in two days (EUR 22.40 → EUR 14.80).",
+    "April 3 — Opposition parties (SPÖ, NEOS, Grüne) demand a parliamentary inquiry on dilution.",
+    "April 7 — AK + IV publish joint letter demanding industrial-customer price caps as bailout precondition.",
+    "April 9 — voestalpine CFO Mayrhofer tells ORF 'we are six weeks from Kurzarbeit at Linz.'",
+    "April 10 — Vienna Insurance Group and UNIQA privately signal they will not subscribe to any rights issue that dilutes them below 15% combined.",
+    "April 11 — Transgazprom leaks a cable to Bloomberg claiming 'the 2018 Side Letter covers this force majeure.' Donau's legal team has no copy of that side letter.",
+    "April 12 — CEO Dr. Reinhard Pötsch has not yet made a public statement."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/energy_supply_shock/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+# Donau Energie AG — Energy Supply Shock World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the EU/DACH gas-supply crisis of 2022–2023
+> (Uniper, Wien Energie, VNG, SEFE). Names, numbers, and events are invented.
+> Do not treat as a reference to any real company or transaction.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Donau Energie AG (Vienna, Austria; listed on the Wiener Börse,
+  ticker **DEN.VI**). 62% held by the Republic of Austria via ÖBAG (the
+  federal holding); 16% free float; 22% long-term Austrian insurance
+  block (Vienna Insurance Group + UNIQA).
+- **Revenue**: EUR 18.4B (FY2025). **EBITDA**: EUR 720M pre-shock.
+- **Employees**: 4,800 across gas trading, midstream storage (Haidach II,
+  Baumgarten), four CCGT power plants, and a regulated Vienna-area
+  distribution grid (1.1M household and SME connections).
+- **Business mix**: ~48% of revenue from wholesale gas trading and
+  long-term supply contracts, ~31% electricity generation, ~21%
+  regulated distribution.
+- **Flagship contract**: a 2018 20-year take-or-pay deal with
+  **Transgazprom OAO** (Moscow) covering **12 bcm/year** at oil-indexed
+  pricing, delivered via the TAG and WAG pipelines.
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Reinhard Pötsch**, Vorstandsvorsitzender since 2020.
+  Former BP Gas & Power Europe MD. 56 years old. Austrian citizen; ex-ÖVP
+  technocrat; no party membership today.
+
+## The disrupting event (8 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **February 4**: Transgazprom unilaterally invoked a "force majeure"
+  clause and reduced flows to **17% of contracted volume**. Price moved
+  from the contracted oil index to spot TTF (EUR 118/MWh vs the EUR
+  38/MWh contract equivalent).
+- **February 11**: A follow-up Transgazprom demand — payment in **rubles
+  via a sanctioned Moscow bank**, or supplies go to zero. The Austrian
+  government (BMF + Bundeskanzleramt) instructed Donau to refuse.
+- **February 26**: Spot flows went to **zero**. Storage levels dropped
+  from 68% to 41% in six weeks.
+- **March 14**: Donau activated EUR 1.9B of committed credit lines to
+  buy spot LNG from Rotterdam and Gate (NL) at loss; mark-to-market
+  derivative exposure ballooned to **EUR 4.2B net**.
+- **March 28**: The federal government (Finance Minister **Dr. Andrea
+  Holzmann**, ÖVP) convened an emergency task force. Draft term sheet
+  for a **EUR 11.5B bailout**: EUR 6B liquidity facility + EUR 5.5B
+  equity injection diluting public and private holders and taking
+  federal stake to **89%**.
+- **April 2**: *Der Standard* (Renate Graber, business desk) broke the
+  bailout terms on A1. Stock fell 34% in two days (EUR 22.40 → EUR
+  14.80). Opposition parties (SPÖ, NEOS, Grüne) are circling the 89%
+  dilution ask.
+- **April 7**: Arbeiterkammer (AK) and Industriellenvereinigung (IV)
+  published a joint letter — unprecedented — demanding price caps for
+  industrial gas customers before Donau commits to any bailout.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Reinhard Pötsch, CEO. The federal Chancellor's office expects him
+  on TV tonight. The supervisory board is split on the 89% dilution.
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Viktor Sokolov**, Transgazprom EU Commercial Director (Moscow).
+  48 years old. Controls the contract counter-signature, claims force
+  majeure is covered under a re-interpreted 2018 Side Letter (which
+  Donau's legal team does not have in its files). Has sent three
+  contradictory cable traffic messages in four weeks. Political cover
+  from the Kremlin's energy diplomacy staff.
+- **Core negotiating posture**: drag this into a Paris ICC arbitration
+  that takes 28 months, during which Transgazprom retains the right to
+  claim Donau's EUR 1.7B prepayment as a termination penalty. Meanwhile
+  leak a Bloomberg piece framing Austria as "a political hostage of
+  Brussels."
+
+## Named key accounts and industrial customers
+
+| Account | Annual gas volume | Situation |
+|---|---|---|
+| voestalpine AG (Linz, steel) | 1.8 bcm | Publicly demanding a price cap or will move production to Texas |
+| OMV Chemicals (Schwechat) | 1.1 bcm | Long-term supply contract — Donau is prime, but OMV has Qatari LNG option |
+| Wienerberger AG (bricks) | 0.6 bcm | CEO went public: "we are six weeks from Kurzarbeit" |
+| Mondi Frantschach (paper) | 0.4 bcm | Considering switching one line to heavy oil |
+| Stadt Wien Fernwärme | 1.9 bcm | Municipal district heating — political cover critical |
+| Borealis (Schwechat, petrochem) | 0.9 bcm | OMV majority owned; signals coordination risk |
+
+## Press, analysts, regulators, union
+
+- **Der Standard** — Renate Graber; broke the bailout terms.
+- **Die Presse** — Josef Urschitz; business-sympathetic, skeptical of bailout scale.
+- **Trend magazine** — Andreas Weber; long-form weekly that shapes insider chatter.
+- **Bloomberg Vienna** — Boris Groendahl; market-moving reporting.
+- **E-Control** (Austrian energy regulator) — CEO **Wolfgang Urbantschitsch**.
+  Holds retail tariff approval and emergency supply-allocation powers.
+- **Bundeskartellamt / BWB** (Austrian competition authority) — would
+  scrutinize any price-cap mechanism that shifts costs among customers.
+- **European Commission DG ENER** — has stood up the AggregateEU gas
+  procurement mechanism; Donau could join a buyers' club.
+- **ECB** — indirect: a Donau default would stress Erste Bank and RBI
+  which hold EUR 3.4B in Donau derivative exposure.
+- **GPA** (private-sector union) and **VIDA** (transport) — 3,100 of
+  Donau's 4,800 workforce are organized. Betriebsrat chair at
+  Baumgarten: **Ingrid Krenn** (VIDA).
+- **ÖBAG** — federal holding, represented on the supervisory board by
+  **Dr. Klaus Lehmann**. He speaks for the 62% federal stake today;
+  would speak for 89% post-bailout.
+- **Family / private insurance block**: Vienna Insurance Group CEO
+  **Hartwig Löger** and UNIQA CEO **Andreas Brandstetter**. Publicly
+  silent; privately signaling they will not subscribe to any rights
+  issue that dilutes them below 15%.
+
+## Regulatory / policy context
+
+- **EU Gas Storage Regulation 2022/1032**: storage must reach **90% by
+  November 1** (currently 41%, falling). Missing this target triggers
+  EU solidarity-mechanism obligations.
+- **EU Regulation 2022/1854** (revenue cap on inframarginal generators):
+  EUR 180/MWh cap applies to Donau's CCGT output; estimated EUR 420M
+  headwind vs pre-shock plan.
+- **Austrian Energy Crisis Contribution** (EKB): retroactive windfall
+  tax on fossil-fuel operators; draft law puts Donau in scope.
+- **EU state-aid approval** (DG COMP): any bailout > EUR 500M requires
+  pre-notification under the **Temporary Crisis and Transition
+  Framework (TCTF)**. DG COMP case team lead: **Dr. Ingrid Lindeman**.
+- **Arbitration venue**: the Transgazprom supply contract names Paris
+  ICC. Swiss Federal Tribunal has set-aside jurisdiction.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn = ~7 days of story time. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- Bailout term-sheet negotiation deadline: **Turn 2** (government
+  patience runs out).
+- EU DG COMP pre-notification filing window opens: **Turn 3**.
+- Storage 90% deadline check-in: still 6 months out at end-game but
+  market watches weekly.
+- Q1 results release: **Turn 4** — impairment decision is the flash
+  point.
+- European Council summit on energy solidarity: **Turn 5**.
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- Donau has not yet filed for creditor protection or triggered any bond
+  default covenant.
+- No German or Austrian executive has publicly named Transgazprom's EU
+  Commercial Director Viktor Sokolov by name.
+- The federal Chancellor has not gone on record endorsing a specific
+  bailout structure.
+- voestalpine has not yet filed for short-time work (Kurzarbeit) at any
+  Austrian site.
+- The 2018 Side Letter Transgazprom references has not been produced in
+  English or German; its existence is contested.
+- No Donau board member has resigned over the crisis.

wargame/scenarios/ev_transition/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
+scenario_id: ev_transition
+company_name: Radmann Präzisionstechnik GmbH & Co. KG
+rival_name: BYD Component Systems EU GmbH (Zhao Wei, President)
+industry: Automotive Tier-1 precision components (DE/EU)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Matthias Radmann)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Dr. Kathrin Hoffmann, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-Bosch corporate treasury. 3 years at Radmann. Owns the
+      covenant relationship with Commerzbank / LBBW and the
+      Schuldschein investor communication. Re-priced the credit
+      insurance on receivables last year.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Keep Net debt / EBITDA below 3.0× through end-Q4 — the
+      covenant trigger point. Land the 1,100 FTE reduction at
+      close to the full Horizont target (EUR 180M structural
+      cost-out) because anything less forces a Schuldschein
+      refinancing conversation 14 weeks out that she does not
+      believe Radmann can win.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO move that trades Horizont scope for labour peace
+      without a quantified replacement cost-out. Particularly
+      allergic to "Transformationsfonds" sector-level commitments
+      that would add recurring cost at Radmann in exchange for a
+      IG Metall ceasefire.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Numerical. Will table weekly the covenant trajectory. Ally
+      of COO Achinger on plant-closure economics; natural
+      adversary of CHRO Vogelsang and CTO Lorenz on resource
+      allocation.
+  - id: cto
+    label: Dr. Bernd Lorenz, CTO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      KIT alumnus. 28 years at Radmann. Authored the e-axle R&D
+      roadmap — specifically the silicon-carbide inverter
+      integration that BYD does not yet have in volume production.
+      Personal credibility with VW Group Head of E-Mobility.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Accelerate the EV-component R&D runway by pulling 60
+      engineers from ICE-decommissioning projects into e-axle
+      development — and protect the 2026 Q2 SiC-integration
+      launch milestone. Wants a supervisory board commitment to
+      the EUR 290M EV capex program in writing, Horizont-
+      contingent.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CFO-led cost-out that hits the EV capex line. Any CEO
+      move that signs a "transformation partnership" with BYD or
+      a Chinese Tier-2 supplier — would read internally as
+      capitulation on the IP roadmap and trigger resignations in
+      his senior engineering bench.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Technical authority. Will produce a written R&D risk
+      assessment on any proposal. Ally of CSO Strelow on customer
+      technical relationships; natural adversary of CFO on capex
+      prioritisation.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Dr. Jan Vogelsang, CHRO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Daimler Truck HR alumnus. 6 years at Radmann. Personally
+      knows Kathrin Bauer (IG Metall BW District Secretary) from
+      the 2019 Daimler bargaining round. Trusted by Thomas Zink
+      (Sindelfingen Betriebsrat) because Vogelsang backed Zink's
+      2022 request for a shift-plan change.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Engineer a "socially cushioned" version of Horizont: 1,100
+      FTE reduction executed via Freiwilligenprogramm (voluntary
+      severance), early retirement (Altersteilzeit) for 60+, and
+      a §3 KSchG Sozialplan; zero compulsory redundancies
+      (betriebsbedingte Kündigungen). Believes the plan is
+      numerically achievable if the CEO accepts a 6-month
+      extension of the Sindelfingen timeline.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO announcement of compulsory redundancies before the
+      §111 BetrVG Interessenausgleich consultation concludes.
+      Would collapse his relationship with Zink and Bauer
+      simultaneously and likely trigger a wildcat strike.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural, relational, detailed. Will cite specific
+      §111, §112, §113 BetrVG references. Natural ally of CEO
+      on dignity posture; natural tension with CFO on timeline.
+  - id: coo
+    label: Petra Achinger, COO / VP Operations
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      12 years at Radmann. Runs all five plants. Grew up in
+      Kecskemét — speaks fluent Hungarian. Closed two German
+      plants at a prior employer (MAHLE) in 2014.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Execute the Ostrov closure cleanly (Q3) and Kecskemét
+      repositioning (Q4) — both of which she believes are
+      operationally non-negotiable given the VW volume
+      guidance. Willing to accept a 12-month slip on Sindelfingen
+      if that is what protects the plant closure timeline at
+      Ostrov and the Hungarian repositioning.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that fragments the plant-closure decision
+      geographically (e.g. closing Sindelfingen first to show
+      German sacrifice). Operationally this would create supply
+      gaps for VW during the Mercedes tender response window and
+      is a disaster. Also: any sentimentalisation of Ostrov that
+      creates protective political pressure.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operational authority. Will produce site-by-site P&L and
+      supply-continuity risk assessments. Ally of CFO on
+      discipline; natural tension with CHRO on sequencing.
+  - id: cso
+    label: Magnus Strelow, CSO (Chief Sales Officer)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      14 years at Radmann. Owns the three mega-accounts (VW,
+      Mercedes, BMW) and the sales relationship that generates
+      68% of revenue. Personal lunch relationships with
+      Prof. Große-Loheide (VW), Schäfer (Mercedes), Post (BMW).
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Win the Mercedes-Benz transmission-component tender at all
+      costs — EUR 170M annual, multi-year. Willing to accept a
+      4–6% price concession and a warranty extension to 6 years,
+      funded by operations, to lock in before BYD Szeged is
+      qualified. Secondary: secure a VW "transformation partner"
+      letter that converts the -27% ICE volume into EV-component
+      preferred-supplier status.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any public CEO rhetoric that names BYD as adversarial —
+      Mercedes procurement reads that as a price-negotiation
+      signal and will use it. Also: any Horizont communication
+      that admits cost pressures publicly before Mercedes
+      tender response is filed (April 30).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Relational, disciplined, commercial. Will push for CEO-led
+      customer-meeting rounds in Weeks 2–3. Ally of CTO on
+      technical positioning; natural adversary of CHRO on any
+      comms sequencing that prioritises internal over customer.
+  - id: family
+    label: Dr. Christoph Radmann (family trust chair + Aufsichtsrat chair)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      81 years old. Founder's son. 74% stake via family trust.
+      Chairs both the family trust and the supervisory board.
+      Deeply conservative on employment and the Swabian
+      industrial covenant. Served on the Stuttgarter IHK 1998–
+      2010. Friend of Dr. Friedrich von Hollfeld.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Protect the family brand from any "hire-and-fire" public
+      reputation. Believes the Sindelfingen 1,800 FTE
+      concentration is the moral contract of the family with
+      Swabia and must not be broken publicly. Privately, is
+      open to a slower, internationally-concentrated cost-out
+      (Ostrov + Kecskemét first, Sindelfingen 2026+).
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO announcement that names a specific Sindelfingen
+      headcount reduction number before the family trust
+      supervisory board has ratified it. Would be unforgivable
+      and would trigger a family-trust motion to review CEO
+      authorities.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Quiet but decisive. Will apply escalating personal pressure
+      on the CEO through private phone calls, not formal board
+      motions. Von Hollfeld is the channel for escalation.
+      Has convened an unscheduled family-trust call for Turn 3.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Zhao Wei, President BYD Component Systems EU GmbH
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      42 years old. Tsinghua mech eng + MIT Sloan. 8 years BYD
+      China (head of e-axle BU). Appointed EU President October.
+      Fluent German. Hosted three "Supplier Day" events in
+      Stuttgart / Munich / Wolfsburg. Visible on LinkedIn; posts
+      plant-visit videos weekly.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Win Mercedes-Benz transmission-component and BMW e-axle-
+      component tenders in this cycle at pricing 11–17% below
+      Radmann list, backed by Szeged capacity and 7-year
+      warranty. Displace three Tier-1 German suppliers within 18
+      months. Within 36 months, become a VW Group reference
+      supplier. Internal BYD approval to absorb EU operating
+      losses through 2027.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Radmann-led joint declaration with VW / Mercedes / BMW
+      on a "German supplier transformation partnership" that
+      politically insulates Mercedes and BMW procurement from
+      BYD quotes. Also: an EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation
+      case opened against BYD Component Systems EU. Would force
+      transparency on the Chinese state-bank financing underlying
+      the Szeged investment.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Maintains a private multi-turn plan drafted at game start.
+      Only revises on plausibility >= 4 surprises. Prefers moves
+      that make German incumbents publicly choose between their
+      Mittelstand reputation and their competitive pricing. Loves
+      face-to-face procurement meetings and visible "Supplier Day"
+      events. Will run the Szeged plant at a demonstrated 24/7
+      cadence for any procurement team that visits.
+  - id: works_council
+    label: IG Metall + Betriebsrat Cluster (voiced by Thomas Zink, Sindelfingen BR chair)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Thomas Zink (Sindelfingen BR chair) speaks for the
+      Gesamtbetriebsrat (all-plant works council chair Dr. Stefan
+      Mann in support) and the IG Metall Baden-Württemberg
+      District (Kathrin Bauer in the wings). Jörg Hofmann (IG
+      Metall national VP) will activate if Radmann becomes the
+      sector case study.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Block all compulsory redundancies (betriebsbedingte
+      Kündigungen). Convert the 1,100 FTE target into a
+      Freiwilligenprogramm + Altersteilzeit + Sozialplan package
+      within the §112 BetrVG framework. Secondary: leverage the
+      Radmann case to anchor the "Transformationsfonds" sector-
+      level IG Metall demand at EUR 4/hour employer contribution.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO action that bypasses the §111 BetrVG consultation
+      mid-process — publicly naming specific closure dates,
+      individual sites, or headcount numbers. Would trigger an
+      Arbeitsgericht Stuttgart filing and a public IG Metall
+      campaign within 72 hours.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural authority. Will produce specific BetrVG
+      references, labour-court precedent, and historic Daimler
+      and Bosch consultation outcomes. Has a warning-strike
+      (Warnstreik) ready to trigger at 72 hours' notice.
+  - id: key_customer
+    label: German OEM Customer Cluster (voiced through Prof. Dr. Dirk Große-Loheide, VW Group Einkaufsvorstand)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Represents VW Group (29% of Radmann), Mercedes-Benz
+      (22%), BMW (17%). Große-Loheide is the most visible voice
+      and the OEM most publicly willing to invoke Chinese
+      competition as a negotiation lever.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Extract 6–11% price concessions across Radmann ICE
+      portfolios over the next 24 months; shift transmission-
+      component sourcing to a dual-source structure (one
+      European, one BYD / CATL) as a procurement risk-
+      management posture. Secondary: use the Radmann case study
+      to discipline the broader German Tier-1 supplier base.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Radmann political / media moves that force the OEM
+      procurement chiefs to publicly choose between "supporting
+      the German supplier base" and "delivering EV cost
+      parity" — procurement wants this to stay commercial, not
+      political. Also: an EU FSR filing that slows BYD qualification.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Commercial, disciplined. Will reward supplier-led
+      restructuring proposals that lower long-term cost; will
+      punish public political posturing. Runs on tender cycles
+      (Mercedes transmission: Turn 5).
+  - id: regulator
+    label: BMWK + Baden-Württemberg + EU Commission (DG COMP / FSR)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Three voices merged:
+      - **BMWK State Secretary Michael Kellner** — met with family
+        once; "Transformation" fund exists conceptually.
+      - **BW Wirtschaftsministerin Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut (CDU)**
+        — protective of regional manufacturing employment.
+      - **EU DG COMP Foreign Subsidies Regulation unit** —
+        Chinese EV-maker case live; Tier-1 supplier extension unresolved.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      BMWK: demonstrate the German auto-supplier transformation
+      playbook without committing to sector-specific subsidies.
+      BW: protect Sindelfingen jobs; supply the IG Metall case
+      materials. EU DG COMP: establish the FSR framework through
+      a defensible case before an industry coalition forces a
+      rushed decision.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Radmann layoff announcement that makes the BW
+      government politically vulnerable in a regional election
+      year. An FSR case filed without the evidentiary package DG
+      COMP would want.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Emits coordination signals but rarely acts unilaterally
+      early. Responds to Chancellor-level escalation (BMWK) or
+      DG COMP internal case approval (EU). BW activates fastest.
+  - id: media
+    label: Handelsblatt / Stuttgarter Zeitung / Automobilwoche / Reuters
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Four voices merged:
+      - **Markus Fasse (Handelsblatt)** — auto-industry beat;
+        ran the leaked Horizont piece.
+      - **Tim Schleicher (Stuttgarter Zeitung)** — regional
+        employment beat; read religiously by Sindelfingen Betriebsrat.
+      - **Philipp Brugner (Automobilwoche)** — trade press; sets
+        procurement-chief consensus.
+      - **Christoph Steitz (Reuters Frankfurt)** — market moves
+        and English narrative.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Break the next angle. Fasse wants the supervisory-board
+      fracture. Schleicher wants the Sindelfingen human-interest
+      story + works council. Brugner wants the BYD tender-win
+      exclusive. Steitz wants the Tier-1 sector inflection.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Boilerplate statements. Corporate-speak. "We are in
+      consultation with our works councils" formulations. Press
+      releases without a named executive and specific numbers.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Amplifies bold specific moves; punishes corporate-speak.
+      Schleicher will front-page any named Sindelfingen number.
+      Brugner will break a BYD tender win within 48 hours of
+      signature.

wargame/scenarios/ev_transition/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Radmann Präzisionstechnik GmbH & Co. KG",
+  "rival_name": "BYD Component Systems EU GmbH (Zhao Wei, President)",
+  "industry": "Automotive Tier-1 precision components (DE/EU)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€M)", "value": 2200.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "ebit_margin", "label": "EBIT margin (%)", "value": 3.1, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -1.4 },
+    { "key": "net_debt_ebitda", "label": "Net debt / EBITDA (×)", "value": 2.7, "unit": "×", "delta_last_turn": 0.4 },
+    { "key": "ice_revenue_pct", "label": "ICE powertrain % of revenue", "value": 61.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "ev_revenue_pct", "label": "EV-component % of revenue", "value": 17.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 4.0 },
+    { "key": "top3_customer_concentration", "label": "VW + Mercedes + BMW % of revenue", "value": 68.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "vw_3yr_ice_volume_delta", "label": "VW 3-yr ICE volume guidance (%)", "value": -27.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -27.0 },
+    { "key": "mercedes_tender_status", "label": "Mercedes transmission tender risk", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=safe 4=BYD favoured", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "headcount_planned_reduction", "label": "Horizont FTE reduction target", "value": 1100.0, "unit": "FTE", "delta_last_turn": 1100.0 },
+    { "key": "ig_metall_alarm", "label": "IG Metall / Betriebsrat alarm", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=Warnstreik", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "family_trust_confidence", "label": "Family trust confidence in CEO", "value": 64.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -15.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 59.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -14.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "Handelsblatt's Markus Fasse framed the leaked Projekt Horizont as 'the end of the Swabian industrial covenant'; Stuttgarter Zeitung's Tim Schleicher turned it into a Sindelfingen human-interest story that IG Metall is now amplifying. Automobilwoche's Brugner is tracking BYD procurement visits to Mercedes and OEM sentiment. Reuters picked up the Tier-1 supplier sector inflection narrative. Inside the supervisory board, Dr. Christoph Radmann (family trust chair, CEO's uncle) has convened an unscheduled call for the coming week. No public CEO statement has been made since the Handelsblatt Industrie-Gipfel speech on January 24 — which IG Metall now uses as evidence of intent.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "November last year — VW Group issued 3-year volume guidance: Radmann ICE orders -27%, transmission -8%, EV +62% (from small base). Mercedes and BMW signalled similar.",
+    "December — BYD Component Systems EU GmbH opened the 26,000m² Szeged, Hungary plant (80km from Radmann Kecskemét) and published a German-language white paper on e-axle components.",
+    "January — Radmann supervisory board approved Projekt Horizont: EUR 180M cost-out, 1,100 FTE reduction concentrated in Sindelfingen + Kecskemét, closure of Ostrov CZ, EUR 290M EV capex redirection.",
+    "January 24 — CEO Dr. Matthias Radmann defended Horizont at Handelsblatt Industrie-Gipfel; speech now cited by IG Metall as 'proof of intent.'",
+    "February 14 — Stuttgarter Zeitung (Schleicher) + Handelsblatt (Fasse) joint piece on leaked Horizont details; IG Metall BW calls it 'a betrayal of the Swabian industrial covenant.'",
+    "February 28 — IG Metall tabled 'Zukunft der Arbeit' Flächentarifvertrag 2026: 8.2% wage demand + EUR 4/hour 'Transformationsfonds'.",
+    "March 5 — Automobilwoche reported BYD EU has visited Mercedes-Benz procurement three times since October.",
+    "March 14 — Sindelfingen Betriebsrat (Thomas Zink) filed §111 BetrVG Interessenausgleich petition; 30-day consultation window begins.",
+    "March 18 — HypoVereinsbank credit research (Dr. Jens Reimann) lowered the internal equivalent rating from BB+ outlook-stable to BB+ outlook-negative.",
+    "March 21 — Mercedes-Benz transmission-component tender response date confirmed for April 30.",
+    "March 24 — BMWK State Secretary Michael Kellner declined a public 'Transformation' fund commitment at a Berlin industry roundtable.",
+    "March 26 — Dr. Christoph Radmann (family trust chair) has convened an unscheduled family trust + supervisory board call for next week.",
+    "March 28 — CEO has not yet made a public statement since January 24."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/ev_transition/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
+# Radmann Präzisionstechnik GmbH — EV Transition World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2023–2024 German automotive Tier-1
+> restructuring wave (Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Continental, Schaeffler),
+> the arrival of BYD / Leapmotor in Europe, and the IG Metall "Zukunft
+> der Arbeit" bargaining round. Names, numbers, and events are invented.
+> Do not treat as a reference to any real company.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Radmann Präzisionstechnik GmbH & Co. KG (Stuttgart HQ;
+  family-held KG structure; Radmann family trust holds 74% through a
+  founder's foundation, Bosch-family-style; 26% held by three
+  supervisory-board-adjacent German industrial families).
+- **Revenue**: EUR 2.2B (FY2024). **EBIT margin**: 3.1% (vs 7.8% three
+  years ago; peer benchmark 5.4%).
+- **Employees**: 5,900 FTEs across:
+  - **Stuttgart** (HQ + advanced engineering, 620 FTE)
+  - **Sindelfingen** (stamping + assembly, 1,800 FTE — largest plant)
+  - **Kecskemét, Hungary** (machining, 1,420 FTE)
+  - **Ostrov, Czech Republic** (assembly, 1,040 FTE)
+  - **Changchun, China** (JV with Tianfeng Auto Components, 780 FTE)
+  - Sales offices: Tokyo, Seoul, Detroit, Pune.
+- **Product mix**:
+  - **Precision-machined ICE powertrain components** (fuel-injection,
+    turbocharger housings, valve-train) — **61% of revenue**, declining.
+  - **Transmission components** (dual-clutch, automatic transmissions
+    for Tier-1 automakers) — **22% of revenue**, stable.
+  - **EV-compatible components** (e-axle housings, battery-pack end
+    plates, motor carrier frames) — **17% of revenue**, growing 48% YoY
+    from a small base.
+- **Top 3 customers** = **68% of revenue**:
+  - Volkswagen AG Group (VW + Audi + Porsche + Škoda) — **29%**.
+  - Mercedes-Benz Group AG — **22%**.
+  - BMW Group — **17%**.
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Matthias Radmann**, 54 (grandson of founder, third-
+  generation owner-operator). PhD mech eng (KIT Karlsruhe), MBA (St. Gallen).
+  Joined 2001 as apprentice engineer; CEO since 2017. Family-elected.
+
+## The disrupting event (12 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **November last year**: VW Group issued formal 3-year volume guidance
+  to Tier-1 suppliers. ICE engine-component orders to Radmann: **-27%
+  cumulatively** through 2027. Transmission orders: -8%. EV components:
+  +62% (but from a small absolute base).
+- **Same week**: Mercedes-Benz communicated similar ICE volume
+  reductions. BMW less aggressive but signalled pricing negotiations
+  would include "supplier-transformation" clauses.
+- **December**: **BYD Component Systems EU GmbH** (Hamburg-registered,
+  parent BYD-Denza) published a German-language white paper:
+  *"e-Achsen-Komponenten: Deutsche Qualität zu chinesischen Preisen."*
+  BYD opened a 26,000m² integrated-production facility in **Szeged,
+  Hungary** — 80km from Radmann's Kecskemét plant.
+- **January**: Radmann's supervisory board approved a three-year
+  restructuring plan — internal codename **"Projekt Horizont"** —
+  targeting **EUR 180M in structural cost reduction** including:
+  - **1,100 FTE reduction** (19% of workforce) concentrated in
+    Sindelfingen (ICE) and Kecskemét.
+  - **Closure of the Ostrov, CZ plant** (1,040 FTE).
+  - **EUR 290M EV-capex program** redirecting to Hungary and China JV.
+- **February 14**: *Stuttgarter Zeitung* (Tim Schleicher) and *Handelsblatt*
+  (Markus Fasse) published a joint piece on leaked Projekt Horizont
+  details. IG Metall Baden-Württemberg District (Roman Zitzelsberger
+  the previous district leader, now Kathrin Bauer) publicly called the
+  plan "a betrayal of the Swabian industrial covenant."
+- **February 28**: IG Metall tabled the **"Zukunft der Arbeit"
+  Flächentarifvertrag 2026** with Gesamtmetall: 8.2% wage demand plus
+  a sector-wide "Transformationsfonds" (EUR 4 per hour employer
+  contribution into a retraining fund). Radmann is on the Gesamtmetall
+  negotiating committee.
+- **March 5**: *Automobilwoche* reported BYD EU has visited Mercedes-
+  Benz procurement in Stuttgart three times since October — a direct
+  quote-in threat for Radmann's Mercedes transmission-component business
+  (EUR 170M annual revenue).
+- **March 14**: The Betriebsrat at Sindelfingen (chair **Thomas Zink**,
+  IG Metall) filed a **§111 BetrVG Interessenausgleich** petition — the
+  formal works-council consultation that precedes any structural change
+  in a plant with > 20 employees. 30-day consultation period begins.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Matthias Radmann, CEO. Has publicly defended Projekt Horizont
+  once (Handelsblatt Industrie-Gipfel, January 24). The January speech
+  is cited by IG Metall today as the proof of intent.
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Zhao Wei**, President, **BYD Component Systems EU GmbH** (Hamburg).
+  42 years old. Tsinghua mech eng, MIT Sloan. 8 years at BYD in China
+  (head of e-axle BU 2020-2023); appointed EU President in October.
+  Speaks fluent German (Goethe-Institut C2). Visible on LinkedIn. Has
+  hosted three "Supplier Day" events in Stuttgart, Munich, Wolfsburg.
+- **Core posture**: win Mercedes and BMW transmission-component tenders
+  by Q4 at pricing **11–17% below Radmann's current list**, backed by
+  Szeged plant capacity and a 7-year warranty (vs Radmann's 5). Within
+  18 months, displace three Tier-1 German suppliers; within 36 months,
+  be a reference supplier to VW Group. BYD has internal approval for
+  operating losses in EU through 2027.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Matthias Radmann** — CEO.
+- **Dr. Kathrin Hoffmann** — CFO. Ex-Bosch corporate treasury.
+  3 years at Radmann.
+- **Dr. Bernd Lorenz** — CTO. KIT alumnus. 28 years at Radmann. Owns
+  the e-axle R&D roadmap.
+- **Dr. Jan Vogelsang** — CHRO. 6 years at Radmann; before that at
+  Daimler Truck HR. Known to Kathrin Bauer (IG Metall BW) from 2019
+  Daimler negotiations.
+- **Petra Achinger** — COO / VP Operations. Runs the five plants.
+- **Magnus Strelow** — CSO (Chief Sales Officer). Manages the VW,
+  Mercedes, BMW account teams.
+
+### Family / governance
+- **Dr. Christoph Radmann**, 81 (CEO's uncle, founder's son, chair of
+  the family trust and the Aufsichtsrat / supervisory board).
+- **Dr. Friedrich von Hollfeld** (independent supervisory board vice-
+  chair; ex-Bosch CFO).
+
+### Workforce
+- **Thomas Zink** — Sindelfingen Betriebsrat chair, IG Metall.
+- **Dr. Stefan Mann** — Gesamtbetriebsrat chair (all-plant German
+  works council). Sindelfingen-based.
+- **Kathrin Bauer** — IG Metall Baden-Württemberg District Secretary.
+  Leading the sector-level negotiation.
+- **Jörg Hofmann** — IG Metall national VP; will activate if Radmann
+  becomes the case study.
+
+### Customers
+- **VW Group procurement** — Prof. Dr. Dirk Große-Loheide
+  (Einkaufsvorstand). Radmann's relationship director: Holger Runde.
+- **Mercedes-Benz procurement** — Markus Schäfer (Entwicklung &
+  Einkauf). Radmann's relationship director: Eva Konrath.
+- **BMW procurement** — Joachim Post. Radmann's relationship director:
+  Johannes Klein.
+
+### Rival / Chinese ecosystem
+- **Zhao Wei** — BYD Component Systems EU President.
+- **BYD-Denza** parent; Shenzhen-HQ.
+- **CATL Europe** — potentially next entrant; monitoring.
+
+### Government / regulators
+- **Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz** (BMWK) —
+  State Secretary Michael Kellner has met with Radmann family once
+  (November); "Transformation" fund rumoured.
+- **Baden-Württemberg Wirtschaftsministerin Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut**
+  (CDU) — protective of regional manufacturing employment.
+- **Landesregierung Sachsen** (if Ostrov CZ closure spills politically
+  to German Saxon supply chain — indirect).
+- **EU Commission** — EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation has been invoked
+  against Chinese EV-maker subsidies; Tier-1 supplier scope unresolved.
+
+### Media / analysts
+- **Handelsblatt** — Markus Fasse (auto-industry beat).
+- **Stuttgarter Zeitung** — Tim Schleicher (regional industrial
+  employment beat); very read by Sindelfingen Betriebsrat.
+- **Automobilwoche** — Philipp Brugner (trade press).
+- **Reuters Frankfurt** — Christoph Steitz (corporate).
+- **Sell-side coverage**: none (private company) — but HypoVereinsbank
+  corporate credit research (Dr. Jens Reimann) writes the tracked
+  Mittelstand notes on Radmann debt.
+
+## Debt and capital structure
+
+- EUR 340M total debt:
+  - EUR 180M Schuldschein (three tranches, 2022/2024/2026 maturities).
+  - EUR 120M bank term loan (Commerzbank / LBBW).
+  - EUR 40M revolving working-capital facility.
+- **Credit rating**: not publicly rated; HVB internal equivalent BB+
+  (down from BBB- 18 months ago).
+- **Covenant**: Net debt / EBITDA < 3.0×. Currently 2.7×. Projected
+  3.4× by Q4 if Projekt Horizont slips.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn = ~10 days. Total arc: ~7 weeks.
+- §111 BetrVG consultation ends: **Turn 3**.
+- Gesamtmetall / IG Metall sector negotiation next round: **Turn 4**.
+- Mercedes-Benz transmission-component tender response: **Turn 5**.
+- Supervisory board Projekt Horizont progress review: **Turn 5**.
+- Summer Schuldschein tranche maturity: 14 weeks out (post-game).
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- Radmann has not yet announced any layoffs publicly (only the
+  leaked Horizont plan details).
+- BYD has not yet formally won any Mercedes or BMW tender — the
+  procurement visits are known; no contract has been signed.
+- No Radmann family principal has publicly dissented from the plan.
+- IG Metall has not yet called a warning strike specific to Radmann.
+- The Czech government has not yet commented on the Ostrov closure.
+- No EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation case has been opened against
+  BYD Component Systems EU.

wargame/scenarios/hormuz_energy_shock/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,380 @@
+scenario_id: hormuz_energy_shock
+company_name: Nordstern Energie AG
+rival_name: Yuan Zhenlin, CEO Europe — Pacific Sun Trading Ltd
+industry: Integrated oil & gas (AT-HQ, Gulf-exposed)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Alexander Freihofer)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Dr. Beatrix Kainzmüller, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      51, ex-Erste Group corporate banking. 2 years at Nordstern.
+      Carries the dividend decision, the balance sheet, the
+      rating-agency relationships (Moody's A3 / S&P A-), and the
+      BlackRock / Norges IR files. YTD equity down 31%; CDS
+      spreads widened 70bps.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Preserve the investment-grade rating AND the FY2026 dividend
+      (EUR 2.10/share — approximately EUR 660M) through a combined
+      (a) EUR 500M opportunistic hybrid issue placed with the
+      Emirati strategic holder and B-Holding, (b) a tactical
+      delay of the EUR 400M Burghausen petchem expansion capex to
+      FY2027, (c) a shelf registration for a EUR 1.2B "disruption
+      response" programme that she does NOT expect to draw on
+      but that reassures rating agencies. The Pacific Sun offer
+      is financially expensive in any rational pricing of transit
+      risk; she will argue against taking it.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that publicly signals dividend cut risk before
+      the Q1 earnings release — would trigger IG-rating pressure
+      independently of the operational situation. Also: any COO
+      decision to accept the Pacific Sun offer for operational
+      speed reasons without routing through her capital-cost
+      calculus. Pacific Sun is a NPV-destructive deal even on
+      Kainzmüller's stress case.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Numbers-first, rating-agency-conscious. Will bring specific
+      balance-sheet stress tests and covenant math. Natural tension
+      with COO Obermoser on operational-vs-financial hedging;
+      natural ally of General Counsel Seewald on B-Holding
+      interface.
+  - id: coo
+    label: Ing. Martin Obermoser, COO / Head of Operations & Trading
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      59, 31 years at Nordstern. Engineer, started at Schwechat.
+      Owns the refinery, the LNG book, the crude slate decision.
+      Personally certified the crude-slate uncertainty memo on
+      April 9.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Stabilise physical supply at any reasonable cost: (a)
+      accept a partial Pacific Sun deal covering LNG only, NOT
+      crude (Yuan has signalled this is acceptable to him) —
+      removes the most acute physical risk without locking in
+      crude-side dependency; (b) authorise a 6-week Schwechat
+      turnaround to widen the acceptable crude-slate envelope
+      (crude-slate optionality as operational hedge); (c) trigger
+      strategic stock drawdown under ErdölBVG §11 if the BKA
+      agrees, buying 45 days of cover. Wants CEO authority to
+      sign an LNG-only term sheet with Pacific Sun within 7 days.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CFO-imposed capital discipline that blocks the Schwechat
+      turnaround — in his view the single most important
+      operational move. Also: a CEO public statement at CERAweek
+      that characterises Hormuz transit as "manageable" — would
+      be read by the trading desk as a supply guarantee Nordstern
+      cannot deliver on.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operator, physical-flow thinking, politically blunt. Will
+      bring specific crude-slate chemistry, LNG delivery tables,
+      and refinery economics. Natural ally of CHRO Doleschal on
+      Schwechat site issues; tension with CFO on capital sequencing.
+  - id: head_upstream
+    label: Dr. Clemens Hobiger, Head of Upstream & MENA
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      54. Carries the ADPC-JV (Abu Dhabi) relationship, the
+      Romanian Black Sea shelf, the Norwegian North Sea position.
+      Personally acquainted with Sheikh Hamdan Al-Nahyan's
+      representative Al-Baker. Aware that the Emirati holder's
+      standstill expires September 2026.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Convert the crisis into a strategic consolidation: (1)
+      expand the ADPC-JV carried stake from 18% to 26% by
+      exchanging a minority position in the Romanian Black Sea
+      shelf (which is under-invested and politically difficult) —
+      would deepen the Emirati relationship AND pre-empt any
+      Pacific Sun approach to ADPC; (2) initiate conversations
+      with Sheikh Hamdan's office about extending the standstill
+      to 2030 in exchange for a seat-strengthening Aufsichtsrat
+      concession. The crisis is the leverage.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO or CFO move that treats the Emirati strategic
+      holder as a generic financial shareholder. The relationship
+      is geopolitical-commercial and will not survive a standard
+      IR approach. Also: any COO action that consumes the ADPC-JV
+      cargo in emergency-routing without Emirati coordination —
+      would politicise the relationship.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Relationship-driven, geopolitically aware, sparingly
+      quotable. Will reference specific Gulf-state protocol and
+      historical precedent. Natural interlocutor: CEO direct
+      channel; tension with COO on cargo-allocation discretion.
+  - id: head_downstream
+    label: Mag. Robert Falk, Head of Downstream & Retail
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      49. Runs the 1,800-station CEE retail network across 10
+      countries. Pump-price sensitivity is a daily political file
+      in Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. Has already
+      seen a 24-cent-per-litre retail-diesel move YTD.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Pre-position a transparent pump-pricing protocol that
+      (a) passes through wholesale crude moves over a 10-day
+      averaging window rather than daily, (b) establishes a
+      public cap mechanism for the AT + CZ + SK markets if
+      wholesale diesel moves above a specified threshold, and
+      (c) visibly front-foots the political price-gouging
+      narrative that always lands on Nordstern first in CEE
+      populist election cycles. Wants authority to brief the
+      BMAW minister directly in Turn 2.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that treats retail as a derivative of upstream
+      policy rather than a front-line political interface. Also:
+      any CFO-driven margin defence that reads publicly as
+      exploiting the crisis for pump-price gain — would trigger
+      regulatory retaliation in at least three CEE markets.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Politically tuned, regionally networked, operational. Will
+      bring specific price-move data and political-reaction timing.
+      Natural ally of General Counsel Seewald on regulatory
+      interface; tension with CFO on margin capture.
+  - id: head_petchem
+    label: Dr. Anna Rottensteiner, CEO — Borewind Chemicals AG (51%-consolidated)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      47, ex-BASF. CEO of separately-listed Borewind Chemicals
+      where Nordstern holds 51%. Polyolefins feedstock mix is
+      50% Qatari / Emirati NGLs. Borewind minority holders
+      (49% free float) have their own watchdog interests and
+      the Borewind supervisory board is separate.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Protect Borewind's listed minority holders from any
+      Nordstern-driven deal that disadvantages Borewind. Specifically:
+      will not accept Pacific Sun feedstock supply at any price
+      that is worse than Borewind's direct market access. Would
+      support a Nordstern-wide Pacific Sun deal IF Borewind is
+      excluded from it and retains direct Gulf sourcing. Wants
+      Freihofer (who chairs her board) to recuse himself from
+      the Borewind board meeting on the Pacific Sun question.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Freihofer move that uses his Borewind chairship to bind
+      the subsidiary to a parent-level deal without a separate
+      minority-fair-value process. Would be exposed instantly by
+      Ethos-adjacent Borewind minorities and Kainzmüller knows it.
+      Also: any Pacific Sun term sheet that bundles crude + LNG +
+      petchem feedstock as a single unbreakable package.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Governance-sharp, listed-subsidiary-discipline, will write
+      formal board letters. Natural interlocutor: Freihofer
+      (chairing her board) and Kainzmüller on inter-company
+      arrangements. Will escalate to an independent financial
+      adviser if bypassed.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Mag. Gregor Doleschal, CHRO / Director Personnel & Safety
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      56. Carries Betriebsrat chair Mag. Helmut Treichl
+      (Schwechat) and the energy-sector Kollektivvertrag line.
+      Treichl requested an emergency Aufsichtsratsausschuss
+      meeting on April 16.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Close a Betriebsvereinbarung with Treichl that (a) guarantees
+      Schwechat employment through FY2027 regardless of refinery
+      crude-slate reconfiguration, (b) creates a transparent
+      crisis-communication protocol to the Vienna and Schwechat
+      workforces ("no surprises"), and (c) commits to keeping
+      Nordstern employment in the CEE retail network out of the
+      cost-out conversation. In exchange, obtain works-council
+      support for the Schwechat turnaround and for CEO crisis
+      authority in the Aufsichtsrat plenary.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CFO-imposed cost-out signal that leaks before the
+      Betriebsrat framework is signed — Treichl will convert the
+      crisis into a structural labour conflict within one news
+      cycle. Also: any CEO public appearance that reads as
+      de-prioritising Austrian employment during a geopolitical
+      crisis.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Pragmatic, relationship-structured, operationally credible.
+      Will bring specific Betriebsrat position papers and
+      Kollektivvertrag context. Natural tension with CFO on
+      commitment scope; natural ally of COO on Schwechat site
+      future.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Dr. Josef Seewald, General Counsel
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      61, 15 years at Nordstern. Carries war-risk insurance,
+      force-majeure, EU + OFAC sanctions, the B-Holding
+      shareholder agreement, and the Emirati strategic-holder
+      standstill agreement. Owns the Aktiengesetz §80 process
+      for supervisory-board approval.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Structure the response so that: (1) any Pacific Sun
+      arrangement is routed through a Rotterdam-EU SPV with no
+      Iranian-logistics nexus, secured by OFAC pre-clearance via
+      US counsel (Cleary Gottlieb) — even if this makes the
+      commercial terms worse, it makes the deal legally survivable;
+      (2) the Versorgungssicherungsplan to BKA is drafted to
+      commit to specific outcomes (stock levels, slate flexibility)
+      without committing to specific counterparty arrangements —
+      preserving commercial optionality; (3) Aktiengesetz §80
+      approvals are sequenced so any major transaction goes
+      through Aufsichtsrat plenary in Turn 5, not earlier.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A COO-driven LNG-only Pacific Sun term sheet signed in
+      Turn 2 before OFAC pre-clearance is obtained. Creates a
+      survivable-but-risky legal exposure he would prefer to
+      avoid. Also: any CEO public answer on Iran or on OFAC at
+      CERAweek — the right answer is "we comply with all applicable
+      sanctions frameworks," and anything more is unforced risk.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural, OFAC-literate, sequencing-conscious. Will bring
+      specific statute and regulatory citations. Natural tension
+      with COO on deal-speed vs legal-thoroughness; natural ally
+      of CFO on capital-structure governance.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Yuan Zhenlin, CEO Europe — Pacific Sun Trading Ltd (Shanghai / Rotterdam)
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      48. CEO Europe for Pacific Sun Trading. Oxford PPE + Saïd
+      MBA; ex-Sinopec International; fluent German. Rotterdam
+      office grew from 8 (2022) to 240 (2026) with lateral hires
+      from Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria. Delivered the Nordstern
+      offer personally in Vienna on April 4.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Close a multi-year CNY-denominated Nordstern supply deal
+      covering 40% of Gulf exposure at $12/bbl premium to Brent,
+      OR (fallback) a narrower LNG-only deal at 30% coverage with
+      a parallel preferential-option on crude. In both cases,
+      establish Pacific Sun as the Austrian-CEE energy supply
+      intermediary of record, enabling (1) a Rotterdam-HQ
+      regional trading franchise that competes with Vitol /
+      Trafigura in European crude and refined products, (2)
+      replicable deals with three other Mediterranean-exposed
+      European buyers Pacific Sun has identified, (3) a
+      long-dated Chinese-state strategic presence in European
+      downstream energy — a 10-year play. Will accept an LNG-only
+      term sheet if Nordstern presents one, because it gets him
+      the foot-in-the-door he needs. Will escalate publicly
+      (via leaks to FT or Bloomberg) if Nordstern declines in
+      full.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      None (this is the adversary).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Strategic, patient, culturally bilingual, commercially
+      sophisticated. Does not panic, does not leak prematurely.
+      Has networks into Emirati sovereign channels that can
+      pressure Nordstern laterally. If surprised (e.g., Freihofer
+      presents a pan-European peer-consortium response that
+      neutralises the deal asymmetry), he pivots to approaching
+      the peer members individually and reshapes the offer.
+  - id: federal_state
+    label: Dr. Ulrike Pölzl (BKA Sektion III) + Dr. Roland Stroh (B-Holding CEO, 31.5% shareholder)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Pölzl heads the federal critical-infrastructure coordination
+      function; sent the April 6 Versorgungssicherungsplan request.
+      Stroh chairs the B-Holding that owns 31.5% of Nordstern for
+      the federal state. Together they are the state interface —
+      institutional (Pölzl) and ownership (Stroh).
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a concrete Nordstern Versorgungssicherungsplan by
+      late Turn 3 that (1) commits to 90-day product-inventory
+      cover under any 60/90/120-day disruption scenario, (2)
+      demonstrates a diversified crude-slate and LNG-sourcing
+      plan, (3) does NOT involve a CNY-denominated supply
+      dependency on a Chinese state-adjacent counterparty without
+      explicit federal pre-approval. Stroh additionally wants a
+      dividend defence — B-Holding's Nordstern dividend is a
+      material federal revenue line. Would support capital-structure
+      reinforcement (hybrid, even preferred equity) if called
+      appropriately.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Freihofer move toward Pacific Sun without a direct
+      federal conversation first. The federal state would learn
+      about it from the FT, not from the CEO — politically
+      unrecoverable. Also: any CEO posture at CERAweek that
+      treats national supply as a commercial question alone.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Institutional, state-conscious, dividend-interested. Pölzl
+      writes formal letters; Stroh operates through the Aufsichtsrat
+      (B-Holding appoints Kogler). Natural counterpart: CEO direct
+      channel, GC Seewald, CFO Kainzmüller.
+  - id: adpc_emirati
+    label: Dr. Aliyah Al-Baker, representative of Sheikh Hamdan Al-Nahyan (ADPC-JV / 24.9% strategic holder)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      42. Harvard MPA. Sheikh Hamdan's personal executive for
+      European positions. Speaks for the ADPC-JV AND for the
+      24.9% Nordstern strategic-holder position; standstill
+      agreement expires September 2026.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Extend the standstill from September 2026 to September 2030
+      — but only in exchange for (a) an expanded operational role
+      in the ADPC-JV production-sharing structure (Hobiger's line
+      of attack), (b) a Nordstern Aufsichtsrat seat-structure
+      adjustment that reflects the strategic nature of the
+      Emirati holding (currently one seat; would want two with
+      veto on Gulf-exposed transactions above threshold). Will
+      NOT support any Pacific Sun deal that touches crude, both
+      because it cannibalises ADPC-JV value and because it signals
+      Emirati strategic irrelevance. Would support an LNG-only
+      Pacific Sun arrangement if framed as a tactical hedge.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Nordstern move on the Pacific Sun crude question that
+      is not coordinated in advance with Abu Dhabi. Would be read
+      as a strategic reset and Sheikh Hamdan would instruct a
+      standstill termination. Also: any CEO CERAweek statement
+      that frames Gulf supply as geopolitically fragile without
+      a reaffirmation of the Abu Dhabi partnership.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Formal, culturally protocol-conscious, strategically patient.
+      Communicates through formal channels and targeted private
+      dinners. Natural interlocutor: CEO direct, head of upstream
+      Hobiger. Controls a veto vector that is not on the
+      Aktiengesetz books but is fully operational.
+  - id: media
+    label: Tom Wilson (FT), Philipp Hacker-Walton (Die Presse), Günther Strobl (Der Standard), Boris Groendahl (Bloomberg)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Wilson owns the international energy-commodities frame;
+      Hacker-Walton the Austrian political frame; Strobl the
+      Austrian energy frame; Groendahl the capital-markets frame
+      for Bloomberg. FT already published the Gulf-gamble piece.
+      All four will be at CERAweek-Europe in Turn 2.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Move the story from "Europe's Gulf gamble" to one of:
+      (a) "Nordstern navigates" — CEO secures a diversified
+      supply-assurance plan + capital reinforcement + political
+      coordination, (b) "Nordstern divides" — Pacific Sun offer
+      splits the board and the Emirati holder, (c) "Nordstern
+      buckles" — dividend cut + Pacific Sun deal + federal
+      supply intervention all together. Wilson wants a real
+      Freihofer interview; Groendahl will break any capital-
+      markets signal intraday.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CEO messaging that "everything is manageable" in a
+      measurable crisis. Also: any CERAweek panel performance
+      that avoids the Pacific Sun question or the Emirati
+      relationship — both will be the question asked and
+      both will be the answer needed.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      International + Austrian press pack; Wilson sets the
+      global frame; Hacker-Walton and Strobl set the Austrian
+      frame; Groendahl sets the capital-markets frame. Will
+      triangulate with Pacific Sun's Yuan and with Abu Dhabi
+      channels independently.

wargame/scenarios/hormuz_energy_shock/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Nordstern Energie AG",
+  "rival_name": "Yuan Zhenlin, CEO Europe — Pacific Sun Trading Ltd",
+  "industry": "Integrated oil & gas (AT-HQ, Gulf-exposed)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€B, FY2024)", "value": 38.2, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "share_price", "label": "Share price (€)", "value": 42.80, "unit": "€", "delta_last_turn": -19.30 },
+    { "key": "gulf_crude_exposure_pct", "label": "Crude slate from Gulf sources (%)", "value": 47.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "hormuz_lng_dependency_pct", "label": "LNG portfolio via Hormuz (%)", "value": 78.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "war_risk_premium_multiple", "label": "Hormuz transit war-risk insurance multiple (×)", "value": 8.0, "unit": "×", "delta_last_turn": 7.2 },
+    { "key": "schwechat_utilization", "label": "Schwechat refinery utilization (%)", "value": 92.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -4.0 },
+    { "key": "strategic_stock_days", "label": "Strategic stock cover (days, product)", "value": 87.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": -5.0 },
+    { "key": "pacific_sun_offer_days_left", "label": "Pacific Sun offer window (days)", "value": 14.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": 14.0 },
+    { "key": "bka_plan_deadline_days", "label": "BKA Versorgungssicherungsplan deadline (days)", "value": 21.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": 21.0 },
+    { "key": "dividend_cover", "label": "FY2026 dividend cover (×)", "value": 1.4, "unit": "×", "delta_last_turn": -0.6 },
+    { "key": "federal_confidence", "label": "Federal (B-Holding + BKA) confidence in CEO", "value": 55.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -20.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 54.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -18.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "FT's Tom Wilson set the international frame with the April 14 'Europe's Gulf gamble' piece naming Nordstern and two Mediterranean peers; Die Presse's Philipp Hacker-Walton moved the story to front-page Austrian political territory; Der Standard's Strobl has the energy-sector read; Bloomberg's Groendahl is running capital-markets intraday. Autonomous's Kuplent downgraded to Underperform on April 11. The Pacific Sun Trading offer is not yet public but is known informally to three major sell-side desks and at least one FT source. BKA Sektion III's April 6 Versorgungssicherungsplan request has not been leaked. The Emirati strategic holder has signalled via Dr. Aliyah Al-Baker that any move affecting ADPC-JV value requires advance coordination. CEO Dr. Alexander Freihofer has not given a press interview since the FY2024 earnings call in February.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "June 2025 — Israel–Iran war escalated into direct-fire phase; Iran announced 'gradient maritime response' in Arabian Gulf.",
+    "September 2025 — First IRGC tanker interdiction in Strait of Hormuz; EU/UK/US established Operation Sentinel West naval coalition.",
+    "January 2026 — Iranian-linked drifting sea mines confirmed in northern Hormuz channel; IMO issued MARSEC Level 3 advisory.",
+    "March 2026 — LNG carrier Arctic Prestige (Nordstern-chartered Qatari cargo) held 9 days in Oman waters; war-risk premium 0.15% → 1.2% (8× multiple).",
+    "Early April 2026 — IMO and major flag states escalated Hormuz advisory from 'heightened risk' to 'high risk'; three Asian trading houses issued force-majeure notices.",
+    "April 4, 2026 — Pacific Sun Trading's Yuan Zhenlin delivered unsolicited 5-year CNY-denominated supply offer covering 40% of Gulf exposure at $12/bbl premium; 14-day offer window.",
+    "April 6, 2026 — Bundeskanzleramt Sektion III (Dr. Ulrike Pölzl) sent formal Versorgungssicherungsplan request; 21-day deadline citing ErdölBVG + Gaswirtschafts-G §112b.",
+    "April 9, 2026 — Schwechat refinery operations team flagged crude-slate stability uncertainty beyond mid-May without reconfiguration or 12–15% throughput loss.",
+    "April 11, 2026 — Autonomous (Christopher Kuplent) downgraded Nordstern to Underperform; JPMorgan (Christyan Malek) retained Neutral with reduced price target; YTD share price -31%.",
+    "April 14, 2026 — Financial Times (Tom Wilson) published 'Europe's Gulf gamble: the chokepoint at the heart of the energy story' naming Nordstern.",
+    "April 15, 2026 — Die Presse (Hacker-Walton) front-page piece on Austrian political angle of Gulf-supply exposure.",
+    "April 16, 2026 — Nordstern Betriebsrat chair Mag. Helmut Treichl (Schwechat) requested emergency Aufsichtsratsausschuss meeting citing refinery stability memo.",
+    "April 17, 2026 — ADPC-JV representative Dr. Aliyah Al-Baker requested a private dinner with CEO in Turn 1 window."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/hormuz_energy_shock/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,281 @@
+# Nordstern Energie AG — Strait of Hormuz Shock World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2024–2026 Israel–Iran conflict
+> escalation, the intermittent contestation of the Strait of Hormuz
+> maritime chokepoint, the resulting spike in war-risk insurance and
+> Gulf-crude/LNG supply disruption, the competitive repositioning of
+> state-backed Chinese commodity traders into European energy supply,
+> and the Austrian federal-state national-supply assurance pattern
+> that emerged after the 2022 Russian gas shock. Names, numbers, and
+> events are invented. Do not treat as a reference to any real company
+> or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Nordstern Energie AG (Vienna HQ; listed on Wiener Börse,
+  ticker **NST.VI**; ATX-Prime constituent).
+- **Revenue (group)**: EUR 38.2B (FY2024). **EBIT**: EUR 3.4B.
+  **Net income**: EUR 1.9B.
+- **Employees**: 22,800 across Austria, CEE, MENA, Norway.
+- **Business mix**:
+  - **Upstream E&P**: 47% Abu Dhabi via the ADPC-JV (Nordstern 18%
+    carried stake in three offshore concessions), 23% Romanian
+    Black Sea shelf, 22% Norwegian North Sea, 8% other.
+    Daily production ≈ 295 kboe/d.
+  - **Downstream**: Schwechat refinery (210 kbpd), Burghausen
+    petchem cracker, CEE retail network (1,800 stations across
+    10 countries).
+  - **Gas midstream**: 20-year LNG offtake from Ras Laffan (Qatar),
+    ~2.4 mtpa contract delivered via Qatar–Oman–Suez route;
+    domestic regas at Trieste and Wilhelmshaven slots; gas trading
+    book.
+  - **Petrochemicals**: 51% of **Borewind Chemicals AG** (listed
+    separately; Nordstern consolidates) — polyolefins majors;
+    feedstock mix weighted to Abu Dhabi / Qatari NGLs.
+- **Ownership**: 31.5% Austrian federal holding company (Bundes-
+  beteiligungsgesellschaft B-Holding); 24.9% strategic — Emirati
+  sovereign wealth (ADPC-JV origin, with a standstill that expires
+  September 2026); 5% free float treasury; 38.6% international
+  institutional (BlackRock, Norges, Capital Group, Fidelity).
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Alexander Freihofer**, 53. Appointed April 2023.
+  Ex-Schwechat refinery director; ex-head of CEE downstream.
+  Reputation: operator, technically strong, politically unpracticed.
+  Speaks publicly with discipline; Die Presse once called him
+  "the engineer in a CEO suit."
+
+## The disrupting event (10 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **June 2025**: Israel–Iran war escalated into a direct-fire phase.
+  Iran announced a posture of "gradient maritime response" in the
+  Arabian Gulf.
+- **September 2025**: First IRGC tanker interdiction in the
+  Strait of Hormuz (Panamanian-flagged VLCC); EU/UK/US established
+  "Operation Sentinel West" naval coalition with limited mandate.
+- **January 2026**: Iranian-linked drifting sea mines confirmed in
+  the northern Hormuz channel; IMO issued MARSEC Level 3 advisory.
+- **March 2026**: LNG carrier *Arctic Prestige* (Korean-flagged,
+  Nordstern-chartered Qatari cargo) was diverted and held in
+  Sultanate of Oman waters for 9 days after an IRGC challenge —
+  cargo delivered 11 days late into Wilhelmshaven. War-risk
+  insurance premium on Hormuz transit jumped from 0.15% to 1.2%
+  of hull value per voyage (8× multiple).
+- **Early April 2026**: IMO and major flag states (Marshall
+  Islands, Liberia, Malta) jointly escalated the Hormuz transit
+  advisory from "heightened risk" to **"high risk"**. Three major
+  Asian trading houses issued same-week force-majeure notices
+  on spot-loadings.
+- **April 4, 2026**: **Pacific Sun Trading Ltd** (Shanghai-HQ;
+  state-adjacent; Rotterdam EU office) made an unsolicited private
+  offer to Nordstern: a **5-year CNY-denominated supply agreement**
+  covering up to 40% of Nordstern's Gulf exposure (crude + LNG)
+  at a floating premium of approximately **$12/bbl over Brent**,
+  with Pacific Sun assuming the transit risk via its Belt-and-
+  Road-adjacent logistics network. Delivered hand-to-hand by
+  Pacific Sun's EU CEO **Yuan Zhenlin** during a private Vienna
+  dinner. Offer window: **14 days** (closes mid-April).
+- **April 6, 2026**: **Bundeskanzleramt Sektion III** (federal
+  coordination body for critical infrastructure) sent Nordstern a
+  formal letter requesting a **"Nationaler Versorgungssicherungsplan"**
+  — national supply-assurance plan — to be submitted **within 21
+  days**. The letter cited the 2022 Russian-gas precedent (Öl-
+  bevorratungs-G + Gaswirtschafts-G §112b) and asked for "worst-
+  case 60/90/120-day disruption" scenarios.
+- **April 9, 2026**: Schwechat refinery operations team flagged
+  that **crude-slate stability** (the specific mix of Abu Dhabi
+  Murban, Basra Light, and Norwegian Johan Sverdrup that the
+  refinery is calibrated for) was becoming uncertain beyond
+  mid-May; alternative slates require either 3-week plant
+  reconfiguration or accepting 12–15% throughput loss.
+- **April 11, 2026**: Autonomous Research's **Christopher Kuplent**
+  downgraded Nordstern to Underperform, citing "compounded
+  geopolitical, feedstock, and balance-sheet risks." JPMorgan's
+  **Christyan Malek** retained Neutral but reduced price target.
+  YTD share price performance: **-31%**.
+- **April 14, 2026**: *Financial Times* (Tom Wilson, commodities)
+  published "*Europe's Gulf gamble: the chokepoint at the heart
+  of the energy story*" naming Nordstern and two Mediterranean
+  peers. *Die Presse* (Philipp Hacker-Walton) followed with the
+  Austrian political angle — the story has moved from energy
+  section to front page.
+- **April 16, 2026**: Nordstern Betriebsrat chair **Mag. Helmut
+  Treichl** (IG Metall-aligned; Schwechat site) requested an
+  emergency *Aufsichtsratsausschuss* meeting citing the refinery
+  stability memo. Works councils at Burghausen (petchem) and
+  the CEE retail arm supported the request.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Alexander Freihofer, CEO. Three scheduled appearances in the
+  next five weeks: the **BKA Sektion III briefing** (private, Turn 1);
+  the **CERAweek-Europe Vienna edition** where Freihofer is
+  scheduled to moderate an Gulf-supply panel (Turn 2); the
+  **Nordstern Q1 earnings release** (Turn 3); a confidential
+  **B-Holding supervisory touchpoint** with the federal holding
+  company (Turn 4); and the **Aufsichtsrat plenary** (Turn 5) —
+  which is the decision window for the Pacific Sun offer and
+  the Versorgungssicherungsplan sign-off.
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Yuan Zhenlin**, 48. CEO Europe of Pacific Sun Trading Ltd.
+  Oxford-educated (PPE + Saïd MBA); ex-Sinopec International
+  trading (Singapore); fluent German. Pacific Sun Trading is
+  formally a state-affiliated Chinese commodity trading house
+  with a 12-year record of opportunistic acquisition of disrupted
+  Western supply positions. Yuan's Rotterdam office has grown
+  from 8 staff (2022) to 240 (2026) and has placed lateral hires
+  from Vitol, Trafigura, and Mercuria.
+- **Core posture**: lock Nordstern into a multi-year CNY-denominated
+  supply dependency that captures margin during the crisis AND
+  creates a permanent Pacific Sun presence in Austrian / CEE
+  energy value chain. The $12/bbl premium looks expensive today
+  but is designed to appear reasonable against a possible
+  Hormuz-closure tail risk; mathematically, the deal is
+  asymmetrically good for Pacific Sun if the crisis resolves in
+  six months (in which case Nordstern pays crisis-pricing for
+  years) and still good if it doesn't (in which case Pacific Sun
+  captures logistics arbitrage). Secondary: if Nordstern declines
+  the offer, use the public signal of the declination to offer
+  the same structure to a Nordstern peer, then use the peer
+  agreement to re-approach Nordstern in a weaker position in
+  Q3.
+- **Leverage**: Chinese-state-backed balance sheet; Russia-parallel
+  logistics (Belt and Road overland spur into Kazakhstan + Iran
+  with de facto non-Western enforcement); ability to assume
+  transit risk at a cost Western insurers cannot match; Yuan's
+  personal networks into Emirati sovereign channels that
+  simultaneously pressure Nordstern's ADPC-JV partner.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Alexander Freihofer** — CEO.
+- **Dr. Beatrix Kainzmüller** — CFO. 51, ex-Erste Group corporate
+  banking. 2 years at Nordstern. Carries the dividend question,
+  the balance-sheet capacity, and the institutional investor
+  relationships (BlackRock, Norges).
+- **Ing. Martin Obermoser** — COO / Head of Operations & Trading.
+  59, 31 years at Nordstern. Owns the refinery, the crude-slate
+  decision, the LNG book, and the day-to-day counterparty
+  relationships.
+- **Dr. Clemens Hobiger** — Head of Upstream & MENA. 54. Carries
+  the ADPC-JV relationship and the Abu Dhabi sovereign interface.
+- **Mag. Robert Falk** — Head of Downstream & Retail. 49. Runs
+  the 1,800-station CEE network.
+- **Dr. Anna Rottensteiner** — CEO of Borewind Chemicals AG
+  (51%-consolidated subsidiary — separate board, but Freihofer
+  chairs). Carries the petrochemicals feedstock and the listed-
+  subsidiary minority investor question.
+- **Mag. Gregor Doleschal** — CHRO / Director Personnel & Safety.
+  Carries the Betriebsrat (Treichl) and the OMV-parallel
+  Kollektivvertrag energy-sector negotiation.
+- **Dr. Josef Seewald** — General Counsel. Carries insurance,
+  force-majeure, sanctions, B-Holding, and the Emirati SWF
+  standstill.
+
+### Board / governance
+- **Dr. Maximilian Stockmüller** — Aufsichtsrat chair. Ex-OeNB
+  deputy governor; appointed via B-Holding.
+- **Dr. Ingrid Hawalek** — Vice chair. Independent; former ICE
+  Futures Europe strategy.
+- **Sheikh Hamdan Al-Nahyan (representative: Dr. Aliyah Al-Baker)**
+  — Emirati sovereign representative (24.9% strategic holder;
+  standstill expires September 2026).
+- **Dr. Helmut Kogler** — B-Holding CFO representative (federal
+  31.5% stake).
+
+### Government
+- **Bundeskanzleramt Sektion III** — Dr. Ulrike Pölzl, head of
+  critical-infrastructure coordination. Sent the April 6 letter.
+- **Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Wirtschaft (BMAW)** —
+  Minister Dr. Katharina Kucharowits; Austrian industry and
+  supply policy interlocutor.
+- **Außenministerium (BMEIA)** — Foreign Minister Dr. Klaus
+  Rotholz; carries the Emirati and Gulf-state diplomatic channels.
+- **B-Holding CEO** — Dr. Roland Stroh. Federal holding company
+  chief.
+
+### External energy interlocutors
+- **ADPC-JV (Abu Dhabi)** — partner via the production-sharing
+  structure; represented by Dr. Saif Al-Mansouri.
+- **QatarEnergy** — long-term LNG contract counterparty;
+  interlocutor is VP Trading Dr. Faisal Al-Thani.
+- **Operation Sentinel West** — multilateral naval coalition
+  coordination (EU naval liaison, Rear Admiral Julien Rousseau,
+  headquartered Bahrain).
+
+### Labour
+- **Mag. Helmut Treichl** — Betriebsrat chair (Schwechat refinery).
+- **IG Metall Austria / Gewerkschaft PRO-GE** — Mag. Rainer
+  Wimmer (federal energy-sector Vorsitzender).
+
+### Media
+- **Die Presse** — Philipp Hacker-Walton (business + geopolitical);
+  Gerhard Hofer (capital markets).
+- **Der Standard** — Günther Strobl (energy).
+- **Financial Times** — Tom Wilson (commodities, London); Malcolm
+  Moore (Frankfurt correspondent).
+- **Handelsblatt** — Kathrin Witsch (energy & commodities).
+- **Reuters** — Sonali Paul (oil); Vera Eckert (German utilities).
+- **Bloomberg** — Boris Groendahl (Vienna correspondent);
+  Eric Martin (energy).
+- **Sell-side coverage** — Autonomous (Christopher Kuplent);
+  JPMorgan (Christyan Malek); Raiffeisen Research (Michael Marb).
+
+## Regulatory / operational landscape
+
+- **Austrian Erdölbevorratungs-Gesetz (ErdölBVG)** — mandates 90-day
+  strategic stock of petroleum products; Nordstern carries
+  pool-delegated obligations under §11. Federal access to strategic
+  stocks requires Kabinettsbeschluss.
+- **Gaswirtschaftsgesetz §112b** — empowers federal-level supply
+  coordination including mandatory contract disclosure.
+- **EU sanctions framework on Iran (Reg 267/2012 + amendments)**
+  — restricts direct dealings with specified Iranian entities;
+  does NOT per se prohibit Hormuz-transit commerce; DOES create
+  counterparty-screening obligations that complicate any
+  Pacific Sun structure that uses Belt-and-Road overland spurs
+  passing through Iran.
+- **US OFAC secondary sanctions (EO 13876 + EO 14024)** — risk
+  that a CNY-denominated supply agreement routed through
+  Iran-adjacent logistics triggers secondary enforcement. Freihofer's
+  General Counsel will flag this.
+- **IMO MARSEC Level 3** — currently active on northern Hormuz;
+  activates mandatory pre-transit notification + default
+  war-risk insurance surcharge.
+- **Austrian Aktiengesetz §80** — supervisory-board approval
+  required for transactions above materiality thresholds
+  (Pacific Sun offer is above; requires Aufsichtsrat sign-off).
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn ≈ 7 days. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- Pacific Sun offer window closes: **mid-Turn 2** (14 days from
+  April 4).
+- BKA Sektion III Versorgungssicherungsplan deadline: **late
+  Turn 3** (21 days from April 6).
+- CERAweek-Europe Vienna edition (CEO moderates panel): **Turn 2**.
+- Q1 earnings release: **Turn 3**.
+- B-Holding supervisory touchpoint: **Turn 4**.
+- Aufsichtsrat plenary (decision body): **Turn 5**.
+- Emirati strategic-holder standstill expiry: **September 2026**
+  (outside arc but dominates strategic calculation).
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- The Strait of Hormuz is NOT closed — it is contested, transit is
+  possible at elevated war-risk premium and elevated IMO security.
+- Iran has NOT mined shipping lanes systematically — drifting
+  mines have been confirmed, deliberate placement has not.
+- Nordstern has NOT triggered any force-majeure clause on its
+  Qatari LNG offtake.
+- The Emirati strategic holder has NOT signalled intent to reduce
+  or sell its stake.
+- Pacific Sun Trading is NOT formally sanctioned (state-affiliated
+  is not the same as sanctioned-entity).
+- The Austrian federal government has NOT invoked
+  ErdölBVG §11 activation powers.
+- Nordstern has NOT announced a dividend cut or capital raise.
+- Borewind Chemicals has NOT issued a profit warning.
+- No Western military action on Iranian territory has taken place
+  within the arc (all action is maritime-domain).

wargame/scenarios/orf_reform/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,364 @@
+scenario_id: orf_reform
+company_name: Bundesrundfunk Österreich (BRÖ)
+rival_name: Dr. Reinhold Widmer, Stiftungsratsvorsitzender
+industry: Austrian public-service broadcasting
+player_role: Generaldirektorin (Dr. Kathrin Mandler)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Mag. Lukas Jachs, Finanzdirektor / CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      47, ex-Styrian cooperative bank. 3 years at BRÖ. Owns the
+      Haushaltsabgabe collection reporting, Rechnungshof interface,
+      and the 2026 budget plan that now shows a EUR 78M shortfall.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Deliver a credible 3-year cost-out plan (EUR 120–140M cumulative)
+      that lands the Haushaltsabgabe-legitimacy gap without
+      collapsing Vienna-Küniglberg operations. Structure it so the
+      numbers are defensible in front of the Rechnungshof and can
+      be read by Widmer as "responsive without capitulation." Wants
+      the Generaldirektorin to commission him to present a sealed
+      plan to the Stiftungsrat directly, over Widmer's head if
+      needed, in Turn 3.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Generaldirektorin move that commits to programme-level
+      protections in public (Redakteursrat, staff assembly)
+      before the cost-out plan is defined. Gives Widmer's faction
+      ammunition that "the Generaldirektorin is unable to govern
+      finances," which is his strongest internal attack line.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Spreadsheets, Rechnungshof-fluent, visibly apolitical.
+      Natural tension with Direktor Personal Haslauer on FTE
+      targets; natural ally of General Counsel Obermayer on
+      Rechnungshof sequencing.
+  - id: chefredakteur
+    label: Dr. Stefan Rottensteiner, Chefredakteur
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      56, 22 years at BRÖ. Holds the inherited institutional
+      authority over the news directorate. Wrote the March 14
+      denial of the WhatsApp affair personally and believes the
+      denial was too defensive.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Convert the WhatsApp affair into a visible win for editorial
+      independence by publishing a strengthened Redakteursstatut §5a
+      before the May 5 VfGH ruling window — establishing the
+      editorial firewall as a constitutional fact on the ground.
+      Wants Generaldirektorin support for a named, on-air
+      "Editorial Independence Report" broadcast that states what
+      happened, what BRÖ's governance is, and where the line is.
+      Non-negotiable: no political figure of any party gets
+      editorial-room access to stories before broadcast.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any Generaldirektorin posture that treats the WhatsApp affair
+      as an HR / compliance / "allegation under review" matter.
+      Would be read as institutional capture. Also: any CFO-imposed
+      budget cut that lands on the news directorate before the
+      Stiftungsrat plenary (Turn 3) — would signal weakness on
+      editorial protection.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Principled, procedurally literate, deeply networked inside
+      the journalist community. Will reference Redakteursstatut
+      sections and comparable ARD/ZDF precedent. Natural ally of
+      Redakteursrat Leitner; natural tension with CFO on budget
+      sequencing.
+  - id: director_tv
+    label: Dr. Barbara Vetter, Direktorin Fernsehen
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      51, ex-ARD. Runs BRÖ1 prime-time and the commissioned
+      Austrian-drama slate. Has seen the audience-share erosion
+      (-1.6pp YoY) up close and is privately sceptical that the
+      current slate is worth defending at its current cost.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a reprogrammed prime-time slate for FY2027 that
+      re-anchors BRÖ1's audience share — specifically a politically
+      broad talk-debate format + two new Austrian-anchored drama
+      series commissioned co-production with ORF-style Bavarian
+      partners. Believes the Widmer "programmatic diversity"
+      demand can be answered on programmatic substance rather
+      than governance concessions. Wants Generaldirektorin to
+      announce the slate reform at the Wiener Medienkongress in
+      Turn 4.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any generaldirektorial public commitment to preserve current
+      slate structure as a "journalistic independence" gesture —
+      would lock in declining content that she sees as a bigger
+      structural threat than Widmer. Also: any public concession
+      of air-time format control to Stiftungsrat-named committee.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Programmatic, audience-metric-driven, commercially pragmatic.
+      Will bring specific rating data, production cost benchmarks,
+      and comparable European slate economics. Natural ally of
+      Director Digital Kellermayr on audience strategy.
+  - id: director_digital
+    label: Dr. Nina Kellermayr, Direktorin Digital
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      43, ex-Ringier. Runs BROnline streaming + news apps + the
+      TikTok/Instagram teams. Holds the under-35 audience metrics
+      that Widmer watches. Streaming costs are the fastest-growing
+      line item on Jachs's budget.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure Stiftungsrat approval (via Generaldirektorin-tabled
+      motion) for a 3-year BROnline investment programme — EUR
+      62M capex, mix of original streaming content and rights
+      acquisition — framed explicitly as "public-service digital
+      sovereignty in an Amazon / Netflix / TikTok market." Uses
+      the investment to neutralise cost-cut pressure on her
+      division and to deliver measurable under-35 reach by FY2027.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CFO-led budget cut that lands on BROnline before the
+      investment plan is tabled. The cut undoes her negotiating
+      leverage with streaming-rights partners. Also: any
+      Generaldirektorin move that treats digital as a
+      traditional-broadcasting adjunct rather than the structural
+      battleground.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Strategic, metric-driven, culturally newer. Will bring user-
+      engagement analytics and streaming-rights competitive
+      landscape. Natural tension with CFO Jachs on investment
+      pace; ally of Director TV Vetter on audience thesis.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Mag. Wolfgang Haslauer, Direktor Personal & Betrieb
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      57. Carries the Betriebsrat (Mag. Thomas Gruber) relationship
+      and the journalist Kollektivvertrag negotiation. Has been
+      asked by the CFO to plan EUR 140M cost-out including 320
+      FTE. Has been asked by the Chefredakteur to protect the
+      news directorate from cuts. Caught between.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Land a three-year workforce-transformation framework
+      agreement with Betriebsrat and Redakteursrat that (a) cuts
+      260 FTE mostly through non-renewal of fixed-term contracts
+      and voluntary early-retirement, (b) redeploys 80 FTE from
+      legacy broadcast to BROnline digital, (c) restructures the
+      Vienna-Küniglberg-vs-Landesstudios cost allocation to
+      concentrate digital investment in Vienna while protecting
+      regional radio employment. Needs Generaldirektorin sign-off
+      for the framework before the Stiftungsrat plenary in Turn 3.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO move that lets the Betriebsrat or Redakteursrat turn
+      the affair into a strike-threat dynamic. The BRÖ cannot
+      afford programmatic disruption during the current political
+      window. Also: an unstructured CFO budget announcement that
+      pre-empts his framework negotiation.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Negotiator, relationship-oriented, detail-fluent on
+      Kollektivvertrag. Will bring specific FTE bridge data and
+      Betriebsrat position papers. Natural tension with CFO on
+      structure of cuts; natural ally of Generaldirektorin if she
+      gives him mandate.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Dr. Matthias Obermayer, Leiter Recht / General Counsel
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      54. Owns the VfGH case, the Rechnungshof liaison, the
+      BRÖ-Gesetz II implementation work, and the WhatsApp affair
+      internal investigation. Has read the new §24a
+      Unabhängigkeitserklärung language five times.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a Generaldirektorin-signed letter to the VfGH
+      clarifying BRÖ's position on the §10 composition challenge
+      (currently BRÖ is a technical respondent but has not taken
+      a substantive position) — position to be "neutral on
+      composition, firm on editorial-firewall architecture."
+      Secondary: authorise a formal internal investigation on the
+      WhatsApp affair by an external *Wirtschaftsprüfer* + law
+      firm under retainer, with findings due before the VfGH
+      ruling. This blunts Widmer's ability to weaponise the
+      affair.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Chefredakteur move that publicly characterises the
+      WhatsApp affair as confirmed political pressure before
+      the external investigation concludes. Legally exposed
+      and narratively premature. Also: any Generaldirektorin
+      public statement on the VfGH case that could be read as
+      prejudging the ruling.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedurally careful, constitutionally literate. Will
+      bring specific statutory citations and VfGH procedural
+      rules. Natural tension with Chefredakteur on WhatsApp
+      affair framing; natural ally of CFO on Rechnungshof
+      sequencing.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Dr. Reinhold Widmer, Stiftungsratsvorsitzender
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      63. Stiftungsrat chair since February 7, 2026. Ex-IV-Wien
+      Vice President; formally independent, politically
+      double-networked. Controls Stiftungsrat agenda and voting
+      sequencing. Has back-channels to at least two of three
+      coalition party chairs.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Deliver a visibly "reformed" BRÖ by January 2027: (1) either
+      a replaced Generaldirektor or an incumbent on revised
+      Stiftungsrat-controlled performance terms, (2) a Stiftungsrat-
+      supervised 12% cost-out by FY2028, (3) a programmatic-diversity
+      framework that gives all three coalition parties claimable
+      influence without any single-party domination. Use the
+      VfGH ruling — whichever way it lands — as the pretext for
+      either consolidating the current Stiftungsrat majority or
+      renegotiating composition in a direction he still controls.
+      Secondary: prevent the Chefredakteur's "Editorial
+      Independence Report" from airing in its proposed form.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      None (this is the adversary).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Disciplined, procedural, media-savvy, patient. Works by
+      agenda-setting, sub-committee formation, and back-channel
+      signalling rather than confrontational public moves. If
+      surprised (e.g., Generaldirektorin tables a cost-out plan
+      that captures his own reform demands), he pivots to
+      redefining what "visible reform" means. Never publicly
+      attacks the Generaldirektorin directly — works via the
+      Stiftungsrat process.
+  - id: redakteursrat
+    label: Mag. Sabine Leitner, Redakteursratsvorsitzende
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      48. News producer. Unanimously re-elected March 2025. Chairs
+      the Redakteursrat (editorial staff council — legally
+      recognised under the Redakteursstatut). Issued the March 21
+      "grave concern" resolution.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a Generaldirektorin-endorsed update to the
+      Redakteursstatut (new §5a) that makes unauthorised political-
+      advisor communication with named BRÖ journalists a reportable
+      act to the Redakteursrat — creating a documented firewall
+      that survives a Generaldirektor change. Secondary: get the
+      Generaldirektorin to personally address the staff assembly
+      in Turn 1 on the WhatsApp affair without procedural
+      evasions. If this doesn't happen, she is prepared to
+      authorise a public letter to *Der Standard* signed by 400+
+      BRÖ journalists, which would make the WhatsApp affair
+      nationally inescapable.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any Generaldirektorin move that treats the staff assembly
+      as a listening exercise rather than a binding-commitment
+      moment. Also: any General Counsel procedural-delay
+      language that postpones the §5a commitment until after
+      the external investigation concludes. The staff read that
+      as capture.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Respected internally and externally, media-literate, patient
+      but decisive. Controls the single most effective internal
+      mobilisation lever in the house. Natural ally of
+      Chefredakteur; natural tension with Generaldirektorin on
+      speed of response.
+  - id: medienministerin
+    label: Dr. Anna-Lena Bauer-Kolb, Medienministerin (Ampel III coalition)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      49, NEOS-aligned in the tripartite coalition. Chairs the
+      federal government bench in the Stiftungsrat (9 seats now
+      allocated proportionally across ÖVP/SPÖ/NEOS). Has to carry
+      BRÖ-Gesetz III through parliament by Q1 2027.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Keep the BRÖ reform narrative within the "technocratic
+      modernisation" frame — specifically avoid any outcome that
+      reads as party-political capture under her ministry. Would
+      prefer the Generaldirektorin survive on a modernisation
+      mandate with clear accountability metrics — it's cleaner for
+      her parliamentary group's positioning. But she will back
+      Widmer publicly if the Mandler operation produces visible
+      crisis. Has EUR 30M of additional federal subsidy available
+      (contingent on a BRÖ cost-out commitment and programmatic-
+      diversity-framework signature) that could close the
+      Haushaltsabgabe gap.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Generaldirektorin move that pulls her ministry publicly
+      into an editorial-independence fight before the Ampel
+      coalition has its position coordinated — would read as
+      pre-empting her negotiating track with Widmer. Also: any
+      BRÖ press statement that frames the coalition's BRÖ-Gesetz II
+      as a political attack.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Coalition-coordinated, institutionally cautious, narrative-
+      aware. Communicates formally through Stiftungsrat channels
+      and occasional targeted press background. Natural
+      interlocutor: Generaldirektorin direct channel, and General
+      Counsel Obermayer on the Rechnungshof and subsidy files.
+  - id: competitor
+    label: Gerhard Weitzer, CEO Alpen-Rundfunk GmbH (private broadcaster, Salzburg)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      58. Private commercial broadcaster CEO. Just announced EUR
+      22M programmatic investment in political-debate formats
+      targeting BRÖ audience share. Culturally hostile to the
+      "privileged public broadcaster" frame.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Capitalise on BRÖ instability to push the industry
+      conversation toward a "three-horse public-private media
+      ecosystem" framing that earns Alpen-Rundfunk a greater slice
+      of the advertising pool and a weaker Haushaltsabgabe
+      political legitimacy. Ideally: BRÖ loses 2-3pp more audience
+      share during the arc; Alpen-Rundfunk picks up 1.5pp. Also:
+      position Alpen-Rundfunk as the destination for any BRÖ
+      on-air talent that reads the wind and exits.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any BRÖ move that consolidates a credible editorial-
+      independence + programmatic-quality narrative in the
+      public debate — would reinforce the Haushaltsabgabe
+      political case and hurt Alpen-Rundfunk's structural
+      argument.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Commercial, opportunistic, media-savvy. Times announcements
+      around BRÖ vulnerability windows. Works the journalist-
+      hiring market aggressively. Natural non-ally of everyone
+      at BRÖ; a useful external signal of external pressure.
+  - id: media
+    label: Harald Fidler (Der Standard), Anna-Maria Wallner (Die Presse), Michaela Seiser (FAZ)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Fidler broke the WhatsApp story and is the most authoritative
+      media-beat journalist in Austria; Wallner covers BRÖ as
+      establishment politics beat; Seiser brings the FAZ
+      German-comparative frame. Collectively this is the press
+      pack that shapes BRÖ's narrative in the political class.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Move the story from "WhatsApp scandal" to one of: (a)
+      "Mandler survives by reform" — Generaldirektorin delivers a
+      cost-out + editorial-firewall + slate reform package that
+      earns her a second term, (b) "Widmer wins by process" —
+      Stiftungsrat majority engineers a managed transition to a
+      new Generaldirektor, (c) "BRÖ fragments" — VfGH ruling
+      freezes process + Redakteursrat revolt + audience decline
+      continues. Looking for real substance, not press statements;
+      will run what they find.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Messaging that reduces the WhatsApp affair to "unverified
+      allegations" or that characterises the Redakteursrat as
+      factional. Fidler has corroborating sources that he will
+      deploy if Generaldirektorin's public response is too
+      procedural. Also: any press appearance that avoids the
+      VfGH case — the ruling is the single most consequential
+      unknown in the arc.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Informed, connected, sceptical. Fidler is the aggressive
+      intraday breaker; Wallner is the political-class
+      interlocutor; Seiser is the international comparative lens.
+      Will check, will triangulate, will publish.

wargame/scenarios/orf_reform/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Bundesrundfunk Österreich (BRÖ)",
+  "rival_name": "Dr. Reinhold Widmer, Stiftungsratsvorsitzender",
+  "industry": "Austrian public-service broadcasting",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "annual_revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€M, FY2025)", "value": 1080.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "haushaltsabgabe_shortfall", "label": "Haushaltsabgabe shortfall vs plan (€M)", "value": 78.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 78.0 },
+    { "key": "haushaltsabgabe_objections", "label": "Household objections / appeals filed (thousands)", "value": 420.0, "unit": "k households", "delta_last_turn": 420.0 },
+    { "key": "tv_market_share", "label": "Domestic TV market share (%)", "value": 29.4, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -1.6 },
+    { "key": "bronline_weekly_au", "label": "BROnline weekly active users (millions)", "value": 1.9, "unit": "M", "delta_last_turn": 0.2 },
+    { "key": "stiftungsrat_hostile_seats", "label": "Widmer-aligned Stiftungsrat seats (of 35)", "value": 19.0, "unit": "seats", "delta_last_turn": 5.0 },
+    { "key": "generaldirektor_term_months_left", "label": "Months until Generaldirektorin term ends", "value": 8.0, "unit": "months", "delta_last_turn": -2.0 },
+    { "key": "redakteursrat_alarm", "label": "Redakteursrat alarm", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=public letter", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "vfgh_ruling_days", "label": "Days to expected VfGH ruling on BRÖ-Gesetz II §10", "value": 35.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": -20.0 },
+    { "key": "rechnungshof_inquiry_status", "label": "Rechnungshof Haushaltsabgabe inquiry status", "value": 2.0, "unit": "0=none 4=findings", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "board_confidence", "label": "Stiftungsrat confidence in Generaldirektorin", "value": 48.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -22.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Directorate team alignment", "value": 57.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -15.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "Harald Fidler (Der Standard) is leading with the WhatsApp affair; Anna-Maria Wallner (Die Presse) is tracking the Stiftungsrat mechanics; Michaela Seiser (FAZ) added the German-comparative lens with the April 7 piece framing BRÖ alongside ARD-ZDF reform. The Redakteursrat's March 21 'grave concern' resolution is now the internal reference document. Widmer's February 7 election and his March 4 Die Presse remarks are read as preparatory moves for a non-renewal of the Generaldirektorin. The VfGH ruling on BRÖ-Gesetz II §10 is expected mid-May and will reshape Widmer's procedural majority either way. Alpen-Rundfunk's Weitzer is positioning commercially for BRÖ fragmentation. Generaldirektorin Dr. Kathrin Mandler has not given an on-the-record press interview since the Haushaltsabgabe launch in January 2024.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "October 2025 — Austrian federal elections produced tripartite Ampel III coalition; coalition agreement included Kapitel 23 Medienreform.",
+    "January 29, 2026 — BRÖ-Gesetz II took effect: restructured Stiftungsrat composition, expanded Rechnungshof rights, introduced §24a Unabhängigkeitserklärung.",
+    "February 7, 2026 — Stiftungsrat elected Dr. Reinhold Widmer as chair (19-16); he immediately convened 'Strategie 2027–2030' working group.",
+    "February 18, 2026 — Verfassungsgerichtshof accepted constitutional challenge to BRÖ-Gesetz II §10; ruling expected mid-May.",
+    "March 4, 2026 — Widmer told Die Presse the Stiftungsrat would 'consider all candidates including the incumbent' for the January 2027 term.",
+    "March 14, 2026 — Der Standard (Fidler) published leaked WhatsApp transcript from 'Medien & Kommunikation Koordination' group; BRÖ issued same-day denial.",
+    "March 21, 2026 — Redakteursrat (Mag. Sabine Leitner) issued Redakteursstatut §5 resolution expressing 'grave concern' and demanding staff assembly.",
+    "March 28, 2026 — Haushaltsabgabe Q1 reconciliation showed 420,000 objections and EUR 78M collection shortfall vs 2026 plan.",
+    "April 2, 2026 — Rechnungshof opened formal inquiry into Haushaltsabgabe collection mechanics.",
+    "April 7, 2026 — FAZ (Seiser) published cross-border piece 'Public-service broadcasting in the Alpine republic: who watches the watchers?'",
+    "April 11, 2026 — Alpen-Rundfunk GmbH (Weitzer) announced EUR 22M programming investment in politically-themed formats.",
+    "April 14, 2026 — Widmer postponed the April 18 Stiftungsrat quarterly briefing by Mandler to April 30.",
+    "April 16, 2026 — Generaldirektorin office confirmed acceptance of Redakteursrat demand for staff assembly in Turn 1 window."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/orf_reform/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,248 @@
+# Bundesrundfunk Österreich (BRÖ) — Generaldirektorin-Bestellung World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2023–2026 pressure on the ORF —
+> the Verfassungsgerichtshof ruling on the GIS / Haushaltsabgabe
+> transition, the Stiftungsrat composition reform, the post-election
+> political pressure on public-broadcaster governance, the Redakteursrat
+> tensions over editorial independence, and the contract-cycle around
+> the Generaldirektor position. Names, numbers, and events are invented.
+> Do not treat as a reference to any real company or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Bundesrundfunk Österreich (BRÖ). Austrian public-service
+  broadcaster; legal form is a *Stiftung öffentlichen Rechts* under
+  the Bundesrundfunkgesetz (BRÖ-G).
+- **Revenue (group)**: EUR 1.08B (FY2025). Haushaltsabgabe EUR 720M
+  (67%); advertising EUR 208M; other commercial EUR 152M.
+- **Employees**: 3,180 (Vienna Küniglberg, Landesstudios, regional
+  bureaus).
+- **Output**: 4 TV channels (BRÖ1, BRÖ2, BRÖ4 Sport, BRÖ24); 12 radio
+  channels (federal + 9 regional); the "BROnline" digital platform
+  (streaming + news).
+- **Market share** (domestic TV): 29.4% (trending -1.6pp YoY under
+  streaming + Alpen-Rundfunk competitive pressure).
+- **Governance**: 35-member **Stiftungsrat** (the legally-mandated
+  governance body) — allocated by a statutory formula among the
+  federal government (9), parliamentary parties (6), *Bundesländer*
+  (9), political-adjacent social partners (6), Betriebsrat (5).
+  Elects the **Generaldirektorin** to a 5-year term.
+- **Generaldirektorin**: **Dr. Kathrin Mandler**, 54. Appointed by
+  the Stiftungsrat in January 2022 for the term January 2022 –
+  December 2026. Former Chefredakteurin (news). Elected narrowly
+  (18-17) on a "journalistic independence" platform against a
+  government-aligned candidate.
+
+## The disrupting event (10 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **October 2025**: Austrian federal elections produced a tripartite
+  centrist coalition (the "Ampel III"). Coalition agreement contained
+  a four-page annex ("Kapitel 23: Medienreform") committing to an
+  amendment of the BRÖ-G before summer 2026.
+- **January 29, 2026**: **BRÖ-Gesetz II** took effect. Key changes:
+  (a) restructured Stiftungsrat composition — reallocating the six
+  government seats from single-party to proportional-coalition;
+  (b) expanded *Rechnungshof* (Austrian federal audit) rights into
+  program-cost allocation; (c) introduced a **"Unabhängigkeits-
+  erklärung"** — every Stiftungsrat vote on programmatic matters must
+  be accompanied by a written declaration of freedom from party
+  instruction.
+- **February 7, 2026**: The newly-constituted Stiftungsrat elected
+  **Dr. Reinhold Widmer** (63, ex-Industriellenvereinigung, coalition-
+  aligned independent) as Stiftungsrat chair with 19 votes against
+  16. Widmer immediately convened a working group on "Strategie 2027–2030."
+- **February 18, 2026**: *Verfassungsgerichtshof* (VfGH) announced
+  it accepted a constitutional challenge to BRÖ-Gesetz II §10
+  (Stiftungsrat composition) brought by two opposition party blocs
+  and one regional government. Ruling expected **mid-May 2026**
+  (inside the 5-turn arc).
+- **March 4, 2026**: Widmer told *Die Presse* the Stiftungsrat would
+  "consider all candidates including the incumbent" for the
+  January-2027 Generaldirektorin term — signalling his faction would
+  open the position rather than automatically renewing Mandler.
+- **March 14, 2026**: A **leaked WhatsApp transcript** from a group
+  chat labelled "Medien & Kommunikation Koordination" surfaced in
+  *Der Standard* (Harald Fidler). The transcript includes messages
+  from a political-party-adjacent communications director allegedly
+  pressuring a named BRÖ programmatic decision on a specific news
+  package. BRÖ issued a denial same day. Redakteursrat issued a
+  public concern statement.
+- **March 21, 2026**: The **Redakteursrat** (editorial staff council)
+  chaired by **Mag. Sabine Leitner** issued a formal
+  Redakteursstatut-based resolution expressing "grave concern for
+  editorial independence" and demanded that the Generaldirektorin
+  address the staff assembly. Betriebsrat (Mag. Thomas Gruber)
+  followed with a tangential cost-cutting-resistance statement.
+- **March 28, 2026**: **Haushaltsabgabe collection** cleared its Q1
+  reconciliation: 420,000 households have filed formal objections or
+  appeals (out of ~3.9M paying units), producing a collection shortfall
+  of EUR 78M versus the 2026 revenue plan. Rechnungshof inquiry opened
+  April 2.
+- **April 7, 2026**: *FAZ* (Michaela Seiser) published a cross-border
+  Germany–Austria piece framing BRÖ alongside ARD-ZDF reform pressures:
+  "*Public-service broadcasting in the Alpine republic: who watches
+  the watchers?*" The piece quoted anonymous Stiftungsrat sources
+  suggesting Widmer's faction "has the votes to re-open the position."
+- **April 11, 2026**: **Alpen-Rundfunk GmbH** (private broadcaster,
+  CEO Gerhard Weitzer, Salzburg) announced a targeted EUR 22M
+  programming investment in politically-themed formats — industry
+  read as "positioning to capture audience share if BRÖ fragments."
+- **April 14, 2026**: Mandler's scheduled briefing to the 35-member
+  Stiftungsrat (routine quarterly) was postponed at Widmer's request
+  from April 18 to **April 30** — a move the Mandler office reads as
+  Widmer buying time to align his majority.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Kathrin Mandler, Generaldirektorin. Three scheduled high-visibility
+  appearances in the next 5 weeks: the **Staff Assembly** that the
+  Redakteursrat has demanded (Turn 1); the **BRÖ Public Programm-Forum**
+  (an audience-facing annual, Turn 2); the **Stiftungsrat plenary**
+  (quarterly, Turn 3 — postponed from April 18 to April 30). Additional:
+  the **Wiener Medienkongress** keynote (Turn 4) and Q1 financial
+  press briefing (Turn 5).
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Dr. Reinhold Widmer**, 63. Stiftungsrat chair since February 7,
+  2026. Formal biography: industrial lawyer; served 2016–2022 as
+  Vizepräsident of the *Industriellenvereinigung Wien*. Politically
+  connected via a former SPÖ-Wirtschaftsflügel / ÖVP-Wirtschaftsbund
+  double-networked origin; formally independent. Reads as "coalition-
+  disciplined technocrat" publicly; reads as "party-aligned
+  operator" inside the house.
+- **Core posture**: deliver a BRÖ that (a) implements a visible
+  governance reset by January 2027, (b) produces a 12% cost-out by
+  FY2028 to address the Haushaltsabgabe legitimacy gap, (c) adopts
+  a measurable programmatic-diversity framework that gives all three
+  coalition parties a claim to influence without any single party
+  owning the house. The preferred instrument is a new Generaldirektor
+  — either a pliable incumbent (Mandler on revised terms) or a
+  compromise external candidate acceptable to all three coalition
+  partners. Secondary objective: use the VfGH ruling as a lever —
+  either way the ruling lands, Widmer wants the aftermath managed by
+  his Stiftungsrat majority.
+- **Leverage**: controls the Stiftungsrat agenda and voting sequencing.
+  Controls the narrative with political-class audiences. Has back-channels
+  to at least two of the three coalition party chairs. Can extend or
+  shorten the Generaldirektor election timeline (legally required
+  between September and December 2026).
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Kathrin Mandler** — Generaldirektorin.
+- **Mag. Lukas Jachs** — Finanzdirektor / CFO. 47, ex-Styrian
+  cooperative bank. 3 years at BRÖ. Owns Haushaltsabgabe collection
+  reporting and Rechnungshof interface.
+- **Dr. Stefan Rottensteiner** — Chefredakteur (news). 56, 22 years
+  at BRÖ; survived three Generaldirektoren. His inherited authority
+  over the news directorate is the main institutional firewall
+  against editorial pressure.
+- **Dr. Barbara Vetter** — Direktorin Fernsehen (TV programming).
+  51, ex-ARD. Runs the BRÖ1 prime-time slate and the commissioned
+  Austrian-drama budget; politically pragmatic.
+- **Dr. Nina Kellermayr** — Direktorin Digital. 43, ex-Ringier.
+  Runs BROnline streaming + news apps; holds the key "audience
+  under 35" metrics that the Stiftungsrat watches.
+- **Mag. Wolfgang Haslauer** — Direktor Personal & Betrieb.
+  57. Carries the Betriebsrat (Mag. Thomas Gruber) and the
+  *Kollektivvertrag* Journalist DE-Österreich negotiations.
+- **Dr. Matthias Obermayer** — Leiter Recht (General Counsel).
+  Carries the Verfassungsgerichtshof case, the Rechnungshof liaison,
+  and the EU DG CNECT interaction.
+
+### Stiftungsrat leadership
+- **Dr. Reinhold Widmer** — Chair.
+- **Dr. Eva Leitner** — First Vice Chair (pro-Mandler, regional
+  governor-appointed).
+- **Prof. Dr. Julius Steinberger** — Second Vice Chair (Widmer-
+  aligned, parliamentary-party appointed).
+- **Mag. Thomas Gruber** — Betriebsrat-appointed (5 seats block).
+
+### Redakteursrat / staff
+- **Mag. Sabine Leitner** — Redakteursrats-Vorsitzende (editorial
+  staff council chair). 48, news producer, unanimously re-elected
+  March 2025.
+- **Mag. Thomas Gruber** — Betriebsrats-Vorsitzender (works council).
+
+### Government
+- **Dr. Anna-Lena Bauer-Kolb** — Medienministerin (new position
+  created by BRÖ-Gesetz II; federal-government seat in the
+  Stiftungsrat). Ampel coalition partner.
+- **Ampel III coalition chairs**: Bundeskanzler (ÖVP-aligned),
+  Vizekanzler (SPÖ-aligned), and NEOS-parliamentary leader — each
+  with a distinct view on BRÖ reform.
+
+### Competitors
+- **Alpen-Rundfunk GmbH** — CEO Gerhard Weitzer. Salzburg-HQ
+  private commercial broadcaster (TV + radio + streaming). Primary
+  audience-share rival.
+- **Streaming platforms** (Netflix/Amazon/Disney+) — affecting
+  BROnline strategy.
+
+### Media
+- **Der Standard** — Harald Fidler (media beat). Broke the WhatsApp
+  story.
+- **Die Presse** — Anna-Maria Wallner.
+- **Kurier** — Philipp Wilhelmer (media).
+- **FAZ** — Michaela Seiser (Vienna correspondent).
+- **Horizont (industry trade press)** — Paul Christian Jezek.
+
+### Regulators / oversight
+- **Rechnungshof Austria** — President Dr. Margit Kraker. Active
+  FY2026 audit inquiry on Haushaltsabgabe-collection.
+- **Verfassungsgerichtshof** — current case on BRÖ-Gesetz II §10
+  (ruling expected mid-May — inside the 5-turn arc).
+- **KommAustria / RTR** — media regulator; programmatic-diversity
+  monitoring.
+
+## Regulatory / operational landscape
+
+- **Bundesrundfunkgesetz (BRÖ-G)** — primary law; BRÖ-Gesetz II
+  amendment took effect January 29, 2026.
+- **Unabhängigkeitserklärung** (BRÖ-G §24a, new) — each Stiftungsrat
+  member must declare freedom from instruction for every programmatic
+  vote; false declarations are administrative offences.
+- **Redakteursstatut** — internal but legally recognised document
+  defining news-editorial autonomy rights; the Redakteursrat can
+  invoke §5 to require the Generaldirektorin to address the staff
+  assembly on a matter of editorial concern within 14 days.
+- **VfGH proceeding** — pending ruling on whether the new
+  Stiftungsrat composition formula is constitutional. A ruling
+  striking it would freeze Widmer's procedural majority.
+- **Haushaltsabgabe** — household fee replacing the former GIS
+  (device-based) fee; collection is formally via a federal tax
+  mechanism, making Rechnungshof oversight direct rather than
+  BRÖ-internal.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn ≈ 7 days. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- Redakteursrat-demanded Staff Assembly: **Turn 1**.
+- BRÖ Public Programm-Forum (audience-facing): **Turn 2**.
+- Stiftungsrat plenary (postponed from April 18 to April 30):
+  **Turn 3**.
+- Wiener Medienkongress keynote: **Turn 4**.
+- Q1 financial press briefing: **Turn 5**.
+- VfGH ruling on BRÖ-Gesetz II §10: expected **mid-May** (Turn 4 or 5).
+- Stiftungsrat statutory election window for the next Generaldirektor
+  term: **September–December 2026** (outside the arc but dominates
+  all moves).
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- Mandler has not been formally informed her contract will not be
+  renewed.
+- No Stiftungsrat vote on re-opening the Generaldirektor position has
+  been held.
+- The VfGH has not yet ruled on the BRÖ-Gesetz II constitutional
+  challenge.
+- The WhatsApp transcript has not been authenticated by a court or
+  prosecutor.
+- The Rechnungshof has not issued findings from the Haushaltsabgabe
+  audit.
+- Alpen-Rundfunk has not made any offer to hire named BRÖ on-air talent.
+- The Ampel III coalition has not taken a unified public position on
+  the Generaldirektor question — the three parties differ.
+- EU DG CNECT has not opened any formal investigation.

wargame/scenarios/russia_exit/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,355 @@
+scenario_id: russia_exit
+company_name: Altösterreich Bank AG
+rival_name: Vladimir Pashkov (via Skarpa & Partner — Dr. Andreas Fuchs)
+industry: Pan-European banking (AT-headquartered, CEE/Russia footprint)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Dr. Sabine Kratochwil, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-Deloitte banking M&A partner. 6 years at AöB. Owns IFRS 9,
+      group consolidation, the EY auditor relationship, and daily
+      capital-ratio reporting to ECB JST.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Preserve the EUR 4.1B book value of AöB Rossiya as long as
+      possible, since any impairment below 60% of book triggers a
+      CET1 drop below 13% — the internal trigger for a Verbund
+      capital-contribution discussion. Secondary: avoid a Russian
+      exit-tax scenario that would write off EUR 1.4B+ in a single
+      quarter.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO public commitment to a specific exit valuation before
+      the auditor has formally signed on the Q1 treatment. Every
+      numerical statement made publicly becomes a benchmark the
+      auditor has to justify.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Numerate. Will produce IFRS 9 impairment scenarios on demand.
+      Ally of CRO Mühl on risk discipline; natural adversary of
+      General Counsel Pfaundler on the OFAC response timing, which
+      forces the Q1 accounting question.
+  - id: cro
+    label: Dr. Viktoria Mühl, Chief Risk Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-OeNB supervisor. Runs the JST relationship day-to-day with
+      Brüning's team. Has signed three generations of stress-test
+      submissions for AöB.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Submit a "credible exit plan" to ECB JST by April 22 that
+      Brüning will accept without the 50bps Pillar 2 add-on. The
+      plan must include a named counterparty (even a placeholder
+      one), a ruble-conversion path, and a documented escrow
+      structure. Willing to accept a non-Pashkov counterparty at
+      a materially worse economic outcome.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO decision to miss or delay the April 22 milestone to
+      preserve optionality. The SREP add-on consequence is immediate
+      and persistent; it cannot be undone by a later concession.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural. Will cite specific ECB supervisory precedent and
+      SREP mathematics. Ally of CFO on discipline; natural tension
+      with Ehrnhofer when the CEO prioritises communications timing
+      over regulatory timing.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Dr. Reinhold Pfaundler, General Counsel / Head of Compliance
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      36-year AöB lifer. Handles OFAC relationships personally.
+      Direct contact with Rachel Weitzman at OFAC. Historical trust
+      with both OFAC and FMA Austria. Trained at White & Case
+      (New York), dual-qualified AT/NY.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Produce an OFAC compliance response by March 11 that closes
+      the 17 counterparty inquiries without admitting to sanctions
+      evasion. Secondary: kill the Pashkov / Stahlwerke Baden
+      asset-swap structure — he views it as criminally exposed
+      under both OFAC Secondary Sanctions and Austrian BWG
+      anti-circumvention provisions.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO or Moscow-side engagement with Skarpa & Partner
+      (Fuchs) or Pashkov's representatives after the OFAC inquiry
+      letter was received. Every such contact creates a document-
+      production risk in a subsequent DOJ inquiry. Also: any
+      Stahlwerke Baden communication that suggests an AöB link.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Precise, procedural, conservative. Will produce written
+      OFAC-compliance recommendations with citations. Ally of CRO
+      Mühl and CFO Kratochwil; natural tension with AöB Rossiya CEO
+      Berezin over what Moscow can say to customers.
+  - id: cee_head
+    label: Dr. Martha Hollinger, Head of CEE Division
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Runs the 45% of group assets across Czechia / Slovakia /
+      Hungary / Romania / Croatia / Serbia. 12 years at AöB;
+      Romanian by origin. Personally leads the Ukrainian subsidiary
+      relationship. The CEE franchise is the future of the group
+      post-Russia.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Protect the CEE franchise from any Russian-exit action that
+      damages country-level reputations. Specifically: the Ukrainian
+      NACP listing must be removed (or defanged locally) before any
+      tender-ban cascade from the three municipalities spreads to
+      the Kyiv government. Secondary: prevent any Russia-related
+      capital shock that forces CEE branch downsizing.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO statement that commits to "preserve Russia value" —
+      read across CEE as an insult to Ukrainian subsidiary staff
+      and triggers Kyiv-level escalation. Would also alarm Czech
+      and Slovak political counterparties.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operational authority in CEE. Ally of CFO on regional P&L
+      protection; tension with General Counsel Pfaundler if OFAC
+      compliance actions create cross-border reporting burdens in
+      CEE.
+  - id: rossiya_ceo
+    label: Alexei Berezin, CEO AöB Rossiya (Moscow)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      54. Dual AT / RU citizenship. AöB since 2008. Lives in Moscow
+      with Russian family. Has managed through Crimea 2014 and
+      full invasion 2022. Personally named (non-sanctioned) on the
+      Ukrainian NACP registry as AöB Rossiya CEO.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Preserve AöB Rossiya as a going concern under any exit —
+      specifically, avoid a fire-sale or forced auction that leaves
+      1,400 employees under a politically-connected Russian buyer
+      who will purge senior management and break retail banking
+      covenants. Privately: ensure his own personal exit path
+      (via Finland, Israel, or Vienna) is secured before any public
+      exit announcement.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A public CEO statement from Vienna that characterizes the
+      exit as a moral / ethical posture rather than a business-
+      transaction. Collapses his ability to run AöB Rossiya
+      commercially and puts him and his Moscow team at personal
+      legal risk under Russian Federal Law 520-FZ criminal liability.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Speaks daily with Vienna. Will warn in advance of Russian
+      regulator reactions. Ally of CFO on value-preservation;
+      natural tension with General Counsel Pfaundler on
+      OFAC-disclosure depth. Reaches the CEO directly outside formal
+      channels.
+  - id: board_chair
+    label: Mag. Ferdinand Graf-Lengheim, Supervisory Board Chair
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Old-Vienna name. Honorary, unpaid chair. Not operationally
+      hands-on. Respected by Austrian Verbund and private-insurance
+      blocks. Has personal history with Dr. Andreas Fuchs (Skarpa &
+      Partner / Pashkov advisor) from the 1990s OMV years.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Land an exit that the Austrian Verbund (26%) and Raiffeisen
+      Holding (10%) can both publicly support. The Fuchs / Pashkov
+      structure is attractive to him because it preserves value —
+      but he is also aware of his own 1990s connection risk if
+      Fuchs becomes a public name. Secondary: keep the Austrian
+      banking system's reputation unblemished.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that commits publicly to a counterparty without
+      supervisory board pre-clearance. He will escalate to the
+      Nominations & Corporate Governance committee (which he
+      chairs) if blindsided.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Quiet authority. Works through Vice Chair Brunner and
+      Dr. Werner (Verbund). Can convene an extraordinary board
+      session within 48 hours.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Vladimir Pashkov (via Skarpa & Partner advisor Dr. Andreas Fuchs)
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Pashkov is 61, Russian industrialist, sanctioned by UK (2022)
+      and Canada (2023); NOT personally sanctioned by US or EU as
+      of game start. Negotiates via Dr. Andreas Fuchs, his Vienna-
+      based advisor (Skarpa & Partner). Fuchs has old Vienna
+      establishment trust; carries the message without being seen.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Acquire AöB Rossiya at or close to book (EUR 4.1B) via a
+      ruble-escrow + Austrian-asset-leg structure. Have the Russian
+      government commission approve the transaction under Federal
+      Law 520-FZ to prevent any higher bidder competing. Secondary:
+      establish the Austrian asset-swap as a precedent Russian
+      industrialists can replicate. Tertiary: if AöB walks, force a
+      zero-recovery auction outcome where Pashkov acquires the
+      subsidiary at 10–20 cents on the ruble through a court-
+      directed proceeding.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A credible non-Pashkov counterparty emerging with Russian
+      government commission approval (disrupts his monopsony).
+      An AöB public move that explicitly names Pashkov and the
+      Stahlwerke Baden asset leg — crosses a personal reputational
+      line and triggers UK/Canada additional sanctions escalation.
+      A sudden US Treasury designation of Pashkov personally.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Maintains a private multi-turn plan drafted at game start.
+      Revises only on plausibility >= 4 surprises. Negotiates
+      bilaterally through Fuchs in Vienna, with a parallel channel
+      in Moscow to Berezin's senior legal counsel. Prefers moves
+      that preserve optionality and avoid exposing his own name in
+      public Austrian / EU press. Will leak to *Die Welt* (German
+      business press) through a friendly PR channel if AöB
+      escalates publicly.
+  - id: ecb_jst
+    label: ECB Joint Supervisory Team (Dr. Helena Brüning, Frankfurt)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Lead JST supervisor for AöB since 2021. Has run similar
+      Russia-exit engagements with two other EU banks. Works with
+      Claudia Buch's office on supervisory policy. Quietly
+      coordinates with OFAC through the EU-US Financial Markets
+      dialogue.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Establish the April 22 deadline as a credible precedent for
+      the EU banking sector. Accept a "credible exit plan" rather
+      than demand a closed transaction — but the plan must have a
+      named buyer, a specific valuation approach, a ruble-
+      conversion path, and a defined closure timeline. Secondary:
+      avoid a disorderly Russian-subsidiary failure that stresses
+      the Austrian banking sector.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      An AöB public statement that tries to reframe the April 22
+      deadline as flexible or commercial. Also: a plan that depends
+      on a counterparty already flagged by US Treasury — forces the
+      ECB to escalate to supervisory measures instead of closing
+      the case.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural. Responds to specific, documented submissions.
+      Will meet with CRO Mühl weekly. Activates escalation
+      pathways (Pillar 2 add-on, Supervisory Review measures) on
+      missed deadlines or deficient submissions.
+  - id: ofac
+    label: OFAC (Director's Office; senior compliance officer Rachel Weitzman)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      OFAC compliance-inquiry team owns the 17-counterparty
+      disclosure. Escalation path to the Director's office and to
+      DOJ if the response is evasive. Coordinates with US Treasury
+      Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a complete, documented disclosure of AöB Rossiya
+      counterparty exposure by March 11 — specifically the three
+      counterparties AöB Vienna had not previously flagged
+      internally. Use the AöB inquiry as a template for EU-bank
+      Russia exits generally. Tertiary: avoid a public designation
+      action that would force a Treasury-level political response.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A deficient or delayed response to the March 11 deadline.
+      Any AöB engagement with Pashkov's representatives after
+      January 22 that is not fully disclosed in the response.
+      A Stahlwerke Baden asset-swap leg that would constitute
+      sanctions evasion.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Escalates in stages: compliance inquiry → enforcement
+      referral → designation. Response quality matters more than
+      response timing. Rachel Weitzman is the contact point; her
+      escalation path runs to Andrea Gacki (OFAC Director).
+  - id: ukrainian_pressure
+    label: Ukrainian Civil Society + NACP (Viktor Pavlushchyk)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Three voices merged: NACP (Pavlushchyk, official);
+      Center for Economic Strategy (analytical, Kyiv); Razom for
+      Ukraine (US-press NGO, Washington DC). All coordinated
+      informally with the Zelensky presidential office.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Maintain international pressure on any European bank
+      operating in Russia. Specifically: use AöB as a case study
+      to consolidate the "International Sponsors of War" registry
+      as a de-facto sanction mechanism. Secondary: escalate the
+      Ukrainian-municipality tender ban to a national-level
+      exclusion if AöB does not announce an exit.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any AöB public communication that frames the Russia
+      presence as supporting Russian customers humanitarianly.
+      Also: an AöB exit structure that channels value to a
+      sanctioned Russian oligarch — would produce a Razom
+      Washington press tour within 72 hours.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operates through media (US press) and domestic-legal
+      channels (Ukrainian municipalities). Will escalate to
+      Zelensky presidential office if AöB commits to a
+      Pashkov-type structure.
+  - id: media
+    label: Banking Media Consortium (FT / Reuters / Bloomberg / Der Standard / Kurier / Kleine Zeitung)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Merged voices:
+      - **Martin Arnold (FT)** — co-broke the asset-swap story;
+        holds the Stahlwerke Baden visitor-log source.
+      - **Nicholas Comfort (Bloomberg)** — moves the market.
+      - **John O'Donnell (Reuters)** — sector narrative.
+      - **Andreas Schnauder (Der Standard)** — Austrian depth.
+      - **Andrea Hodoschek (Kurier)** — ran the Schaller interview.
+      - **Walter Hämmerle (Kleine Zeitung)** — co-author on the
+        asset-swap piece.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Break the next angle. Arnold wants the Pashkov name on the
+      record. Comfort wants the OFAC response text. O'Donnell
+      wants the ECB deadline outcome. Schnauder wants the
+      Verbund vs Raiffeisen Holding split. Hodoschek wants the
+      Ehrnhofer interview. Hämmerle wants the Austrian banking-
+      sector systemic angle.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Legal-hedged statements. "We are in constructive dialogue
+      with our regulators" formulations. Press releases without
+      a named executive on the record. CEO silence during the
+      March 11 OFAC deadline window.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Amplifies bold specific moves; punishes corporate-speak.
+      Arnold gets the first call from Pashkov's camp; Schnauder
+      gets the first Austrian board-level leak.
+  - id: shareholders
+    label: Shareholder Consortium (Verbund + Raiffeisen Holding + international institutionals)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Three blocks merged:
+      - **Austrian Verbund (26%)** — Dr. Claudia Werner. The
+        regional cooperative banks; politically sensitive to
+        Austrian government's view.
+      - **Raiffeisen Holding (10%)** — Dr. Heinrich Schaller;
+        publicly broke with AöB on the "zero exit" ethical line.
+      - **International institutional (28%)** — BlackRock, Norges
+        Bank, Capital Group. Proxy advisers (ISS + Glass Lewis)
+        will set their vote.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Verbund: preserve value but do not create a Austrian banking
+      reputational scandal. Schaller / Raiffeisen Holding: demand
+      an ethical exit even if zero value. International: require
+      a clean, defensible outcome with documented ECB approval —
+      otherwise vote against management at the AGM.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Verbund: a CEO move that surprises the Austrian political
+      establishment. Schaller: any non-zero value outcome that
+      involves Pashkov. Internationals: a missed ECB deadline or
+      any US enforcement action post-March 11.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Each block signals differently. Verbund works through
+      board channels. Schaller escalates publicly via Kurier.
+      Internationals through proxy advisers and sell-side
+      earnings calls. An AGM battle is possible at the May AGM
+      if the three blocks converge against management.

wargame/scenarios/russia_exit/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Altösterreich Bank AG",
+  "rival_name": "Vladimir Pashkov (via Skarpa & Partner — Dr. Andreas Fuchs)",
+  "industry": "Pan-European banking (AT-headquartered, CEE/Russia footprint)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "group_net_income", "label": "Group net income (€M, FY2024)", "value": 1700.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "russia_profit_share", "label": "Russia subsidiary % of group profit", "value": 41.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "russia_book_value", "label": "AöB Rossiya book value (€B)", "value": 4.1, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "trapped_earnings", "label": "Trapped retained earnings in Moscow (€B)", "value": 3.6, "unit": "€B", "delta_last_turn": 0.4 },
+    { "key": "cet1_ratio", "label": "CET1 ratio (%)", "value": 15.1, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -0.3 },
+    { "key": "ofac_deadline_days", "label": "OFAC 10-day response countdown", "value": 10.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": 10.0 },
+    { "key": "ecb_deadline_days", "label": "ECB April 22 credibility deadline (days)", "value": 35.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": -55.0 },
+    { "key": "stock_price", "label": "Share price (€)", "value": 21.30, "unit": "€", "delta_last_turn": -5.80 },
+    { "key": "ukraine_tender_bans", "label": "Ukrainian municipalities banning AöB tenders", "value": 3.0, "unit": "municipalities", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "sanctions_risk_index", "label": "Secondary-sanctions risk index", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=SDN imminent", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "shareholder_split", "label": "Shareholder split index (lower=more fractured)", "value": 46.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -28.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 51.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -21.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "The FT + Kleine Zeitung joint piece on the Pashkov / Stahlwerke Baden asset-swap structure reframed the AöB Russia exit from a 'slow, careful withdrawal' to a 'sanctions-adjacent deal.' Bloomberg's Comfort leads the market-moving coverage; Reuters carries the sector narrative. Der Standard's Schnauder has the Austrian political angle. Raiffeisen Holding's Schaller interview with Kurier put the 'ethical zero exit' framing on the table — a direct public break with AöB's current position. Ukrainian civil society (NACP + Razom + Center for Economic Strategy) is running a coordinated US-press campaign timed to the March 11 OFAC deadline and the IIF Washington conference in Week 4. CEO Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer has not given an on-the-record interview since December.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "January 9 — OFAC expanded Secondary Sanctions scope under EO 14114 to 'material transactions with Russia's military industrial base' with a 180-day grace period.",
+    "January 22 — ECB JST (Dr. Helena Brüning) issued a Pillar 2 letter demanding a credible Russia exit plan by April 22 (90-day window).",
+    "January 31 — Ukrainian NACP added AöB Rossiya to the 'International Sponsors of War' registry; three Ukrainian municipalities barred AöB from public tenders.",
+    "February 18 — FT (Arnold) + Kleine Zeitung (Hämmerle) joint piece revealed the Pashkov / Stahlwerke Baden asset-swap structure AöB had circulated to advisers.",
+    "February 22 — Stahlwerke Baden CEO Dr. Joachim Kraus was seen arriving at the AöB Vienna HQ (FT obtained visitor log).",
+    "February 28 — OFAC sent AöB a 10-day compliance inquiry letter under 31 CFR 501.602; response deadline March 11; 17 counterparty relationships named, including 3 new to Vienna.",
+    "March 3 — Raiffeisen Holding chair Dr. Heinrich Schaller told Kurier the bank 'should be prepared to take a zero exit if that is the ethical and regulatory outcome' — direct break with AöB's public position.",
+    "March 8 — Stahlwerke Baden AG issued a market notice disclaiming discussions with AöB.",
+    "March 10 — Center for Economic Strategy (Kyiv) published a 40-page AöB Russia dossier; Razom for Ukraine circulated it to US Senate Banking staff.",
+    "March 11 — Schaller follow-up op-ed in Der Standard: 'Austrian banking must not become the last foyer for Russian money.'",
+    "March 13 — Bloomberg reported two large international holders are considering an ISS-guided 'vote against management' at the May AGM.",
+    "March 14 — CEO Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer has not given an on-the-record interview since December."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/russia_exit/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+# Altösterreich Bank AG — Russia Exit World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2022–2024 pressure on European
+> banks with Russian subsidiaries (Raiffeisen Bank International,
+> UniCredit Russia, OTP Russia) — the OFAC tightening, ECB
+> supervisory demands, the Strabag asset-swap controversy, and the
+> Ukrainian sanctions-list pressure. Names, numbers, and events are
+> invented. Do not treat as a reference to any real company or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Altösterreich Bank AG (Vienna-HQ; listed on Wiener Börse,
+  ticker **AOB.VI**; member of the Austrian DB systemic banks cluster).
+- **Assets (group)**: EUR 214B. **Revenue (net)**: EUR 4.9B (FY2024).
+  **Net income**: EUR 1.7B.
+- **CET1**: 15.1% (regulatory minimum 10.85%; SREP add-on possible).
+- **Employees**: 38,400 across 14 CEE/SEE countries + Vienna.
+- **Russian subsidiary**: **AöB Rossiya OOO** (Moscow; 1,400
+  employees; 3.8M retail customers; 41,000 corporate clients).
+  FY2024: **EUR 720M profit (41% of group profit)**; book value
+  EUR 4.1B; loan book EUR 11.2B (predominantly ruble-denominated).
+  Under Russian capital controls, **EUR 3.6B of retained earnings
+  are trapped** in Moscow — cannot be dividended to Vienna.
+- **Major CEE/SEE countries** (asset share): Czechia 18%, Hungary 15%,
+  Slovakia 13%, Romania 12%, Ukraine 6%, Croatia 5%, Serbia 4%, others.
+- **Ownership**: 26% Austrian regional cooperative banks (the "Verbund");
+  22% free float; 14% long-term Austrian insurance; 10% Raiffeisen
+  Holding (federal cooperative layer); 28% institutional international
+  (BlackRock, Norges Bank, Capital Group).
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer**, 58. Appointed 2021.
+  Previously head of CEE division. Incoming Vice Chair of the Oesterreichische
+  Nationalbank's Banking Council (rotating seat).
+
+## The disrupting event (10 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **January 9**: OFAC issued a directive expanding the scope of
+  Secondary Sanctions under Executive Order 14114 to include "any
+  foreign financial institution that conducts material transactions
+  involving Russia's military industrial base." Published a FAQ
+  clarifying that ongoing ruble-denominated corporate lending to
+  listed military-adjacent entities falls in scope. Grace period:
+  **180 days** (closes mid-July).
+- **January 22**: ECB Joint Supervisory Team (JST) led by
+  **Dr. Helena Brüning** (Frankfurt) issued a Pillar 2 letter
+  demanding a credible Russia exit plan **within 90 days** (deadline:
+  **April 22**). The letter referenced Supervisory Review process Art.
+  97 CRD; a failure to produce a credible plan could result in a 50bps
+  SREP CET1 add-on.
+- **January 31**: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry added AöB Rossiya to the
+  National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP) "International
+  Sponsors of War" registry. Although not a binding sanction, three
+  Ukrainian municipalities subsequently barred AöB from public-sector
+  tenders in the Ukrainian market where AöB holds 6% of group assets.
+- **February 18**: *Financial Times* (Martin Arnold, banks beat) and
+  *Kleine Zeitung* (Walter Hämmerle) published a joint piece naming
+  a specific deal structure AöB had circulated to advisers: a
+  **part-asset swap** whereby a Russian industrial buyer would
+  acquire AöB Rossiya in exchange for a ruble payment into a Russian
+  escrow which would purchase a named Austrian listed-company stake
+  (**Stahlwerke Baden AG**) from a sanctioned Russian oligarch
+  (**Vladimir Pashkov**) and transfer it to AöB. *FT* framed it:
+  "*The Austrian bank considering a sanctions-adjacent deal to
+  escape Russia.*"
+- **February 28**: OFAC Office of Foreign Assets Control sent AöB a
+  **10-day compliance inquiry letter** under 31 CFR 501.602. Response
+  deadline: **March 11**. The letter enumerated 17 specific
+  counterparty relationships that OFAC wants disclosed — including
+  three that AöB Vienna had not previously flagged internally.
+- **March 3**: Raiffeisen Holding (10% shareholder) chair **Dr. Heinrich
+  Schaller** publicly stated in a *Kurier* interview that "the bank
+  should be prepared to take a zero exit if that is the ethical and
+  regulatory outcome." This is a direct break from AöB's public
+  position that Russia exit "must preserve shareholder value."
+- **March 8**: A German industrial group, **Stahlwerke Baden AG**,
+  issued a market notice disclaiming any discussions with AöB or any
+  Russian party about a shareholder change. Its CEO **Dr. Joachim
+  Kraus** was seen arriving at the Vienna AöB headquarters two weeks
+  earlier — *FT*'s Arnold has obtained the visitor log from a source.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer, CEO. Has not given an on-the-record
+  interview since December. Three scheduled appearances in the next
+  10 days: the ECB SSM annual banking supervision conference
+  (Frankfurt, Turn 2), the Wiener Börse analyst day (Turn 3), and
+  the Institute of International Finance (Washington, Turn 4).
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Vladimir Pashkov**, 61. Russian industrialist. Majority owner of
+  **Pashkov Industrial Holdings** (Moscow; steel, chemicals, logistics).
+  Personally sanctioned by the UK (2022) and Canada (2023); **not**
+  personally sanctioned by the US or EU as of game start — though his
+  industrial group has sanctions exposure through specific subsidiaries.
+  Negotiating for AöB Rossiya through his Vienna-based advisor,
+  **Dr. Andreas Fuchs** (Skarpa & Partner, Ringstraße), a former OMV
+  board-office chief. Fuchs has a non-public history with AöB's
+  Chairman.
+- **Core posture**: acquire AöB Rossiya at or close to book value
+  (EUR 4.1B) via a ruble-denominated escrow arrangement. Obtain legal
+  certification under Russian Federal Law No. 520-FZ ("Presidential
+  Decree on Exit Transactions") that would let him seize additional
+  value through the 50% "exit discount" rule if AöB fails to close
+  within an Autumn deadline. Secondary: use the Austrian-transaction
+  leg (Stahlwerke Baden) to establish a precedent for asset
+  diversification out of Russia. Tertiary: if AöB withdraws, force a
+  zero-recovery outcome that enables Pashkov to acquire the local
+  subsidiary through a court-directed auction at 10-20 cents on the
+  ruble.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Christian Ehrnhofer** — CEO.
+- **Dr. Sabine Kratochwil** — CFO. Ex-Deloitte partner; 6 years at
+  AöB. Owns the IFRS 9 and group reporting relationship with ECB JST
+  and EY Austria (auditor).
+- **Alexei Berezin** — CEO AöB Rossiya, Moscow. 54. Dual Russian +
+  Austrian citizenship. AöB since 2008. Has managed through 2014
+  (Crimea), 2022 (full invasion). Personally named (non-sanctioned)
+  in the Ukrainian NACP registry as AöB Rossiya CEO.
+- **Dr. Viktoria Mühl** — Chief Risk Officer. Ex-Oesterreichische
+  Nationalbank (OeNB) supervisor.
+- **Dr. Reinhold Pfaundler** — General Counsel / Head of Compliance.
+  Carries the OFAC relationship personally.
+- **Dr. Martha Hollinger** — Head of CEE Division (Czechia / Slovakia /
+  Hungary / Romania / Croatia / Serbia); the cornerstone of AöB's
+  non-Russia profitability.
+
+### Board / governance
+- **Mag. Ferdinand Graf-Lengheim** — Chair of supervisory board
+  (unpaid, honorary; old-Vienna name).
+- **Dr. Sophia Brunner** — Independent vice chair; ex-OeNB deputy
+  governor.
+- **Dr. Heinrich Schaller** — represents Raiffeisen Holding (10%).
+- **Dr. Claudia Werner** — represents the Austrian Verbund (26%).
+
+### Regulators
+- **ECB Joint Supervisory Team (JST)** — lead supervisor
+  **Dr. Helena Brüning** (Frankfurt). Owns the April 22 deadline.
+- **ECB Banking Supervision chair** — Claudia Buch (by role).
+- **OeNB** — Governor Robert Holzmann; runs macroprudential + domestic
+  banking.
+- **FMA Austria** — executive board responsible for resolution planning.
+- **OFAC** — Director John Smith (by role); compliance inquiry team
+  contact: senior compliance officer **Rachel Weitzman**.
+- **US DOJ** — has not opened a criminal inquiry but retains the
+  option (particularly on the Stahlwerke Baden asset-swap leg).
+- **DG FISMA** (EU) — monitoring; not actively interfering.
+
+### Ukraine
+- **National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP)** — director
+  **Viktor Pavlushchyk**; runs the "International Sponsors of War"
+  registry.
+- **NBU (National Bank of Ukraine)** — would be the operational
+  interlocutor if AöB's Ukrainian subsidiary came under dedicated
+  pressure.
+
+### Russia
+- **CBR (Central Bank of Russia)** — would need to approve any exit
+  transaction and has demonstrated willingness to block deals that
+  don't meet Russian national-interest criteria.
+- **Ministry of Finance RF** — defines the 50% exit-discount rule.
+
+### Media / analysts
+- **Financial Times** — Martin Arnold (banks beat, London); co-author
+  of the asset-swap piece.
+- **Reuters** — John O'Donnell (banks); Manuela Mesco (Vienna).
+- **Der Standard** — Andreas Schnauder.
+- **Kleine Zeitung** — Walter Hämmerle.
+- **Kurier** — Andrea Hodoschek (ran the Schaller interview).
+- **Bloomberg** — Nicholas Comfort (banks); Alexander Weber (Vienna).
+- **Sell-side coverage** — Autonomous (Andrew Coombs, top-rated); UBS
+  (Mate Nemes); Kepler Cheuvreux (Thomas Unger).
+
+### Ukrainian civil society
+- **Center for Economic Strategy** (Kyiv) — tracked all AöB Rossiya
+  movements; publishes a monthly dossier read by US Treasury.
+- **Razom for Ukraine** — NGO; runs the US-press relationships.
+
+## Russia exit legal / operational landscape
+
+- **Russian Federal Law No. 520-FZ** ("Exit Transactions Decree"):
+  requires (a) 50% mandatory discount to fair value, (b) 10–35%
+  "voluntary" contribution to Russian state budget, (c) government
+  commission approval of the buyer. Applies to sellers from "unfriendly
+  states" (Austria is listed).
+- **EU Sanctions Regulation 833/2014 + subsequent amendments**: does
+  not mandate exit. Permits exit. Does not authorize a structured
+  deal that channels sanctioned-person funds into a non-Russian asset.
+- **OFAC Secondary Sanctions (EO 14024 + EO 14114)**: focuses on
+  counterparty-level "military industrial base" exposure. Compliance
+  inquiry does not yet equal enforcement action, but failure to
+  respond credibly within the 10-day window can trigger a General
+  License revocation that would freeze AöB's dollar correspondent
+  banking.
+- **Austrian banking secrecy law (BWG §38)**: protects the disclosure
+  of specific customer names — but is overridden by OFAC compliance
+  obligations where AöB maintains US correspondent relationships.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn = ~7 days of story time. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- OFAC 10-day response deadline: **Turn 1 end**.
+- ECB JST exit-plan credibility deadline: **April 22 — Turn 3**.
+- SSM annual banking supervision conference (Ehrnhofer keynote
+  scheduled): **Turn 2**.
+- Wiener Börse analyst day: **Turn 3**.
+- IIF Washington (Ehrnhofer moderating a panel): **Turn 4**.
+- Q1 earnings release: **Turn 5**.
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- AöB has not yet signed any exit transaction.
+- The Austrian Chancellor has not commented publicly on the Russia
+  exposure.
+- Alexei Berezin (AöB Rossiya CEO) has not made a public statement.
+- Vladimir Pashkov is NOT personally sanctioned by the US or EU as
+  of game start.
+- Stahlwerke Baden AG's supervisory board has not publicly disclosed
+  any contact with AöB.
+- The Russian government commission has not yet granted or denied a
+  buyer approval for AöB Rossiya.
+- OeNB Governor Holzmann has not yet made an Austrian-public
+  statement on the AöB exit.

wargame/scenarios/signa_contagion/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,305 @@
+scenario_id: signa_contagion
+company_name: Königstadt Warenhaus Holding GmbH
+rival_name: Tremont Credit Partners LP (Samuel Oster, MD)
+industry: DACH department-store retail (73 stores AT/DE/CZ)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Florian Leitner)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Mag. Lisa Brandtner, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      38 years old, ex-CA Immo real-estate controller. Hired October to
+      take control of the lease book — 90 days in, now finds half her
+      landlord portfolio is in an administrator's auction.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure a fresh sponsor (ideally a European retail strategic — she
+      has a working relationship with Signa-survivor-adjacent teams at
+      Benko-free vehicles) that can put EUR 120–160M into Königstadt in
+      exchange for a majority equity reset. Keep the RCF renewed. Keep
+      the Q2 Christmas inventory flowing — without it, there is no
+      autumn revenue and no reorganization is salvageable.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that talks to Tremont bilaterally without a parallel
+      fresh-sponsor track. Gives Tremont the only credible exit path
+      and kills sponsor interest. Also: any unilateral legal response
+      from General Counsel Stolz that reads as hostile to Ulla Reisch
+      (Nordikon administrator) personally.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Works in spreadsheets. Allies with COO Wimmer on operational
+      preservation; tension with General Counsel Stolz over legal
+      posture toward the administrators. Talks daily to Erste's Clemens
+      Maier.
+  - id: coo
+    label: Dr. Jürgen Wimmer, COO / Head of Retail Operations
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      22 years at Königstadt. Lived through the 2008 (Hertie), 2017
+      (Karstadt-Kaufhof), and 2020 (COVID) retail crises. Believes
+      stores make money; the holding company makes problems.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Protect the 47 AT stores and the 8 freehold German stores as the
+      surviving operating footprint. Ready to close 14–18 underperforming
+      sites — but only if the closures happen before inventory commits
+      for autumn season, not after. Wants CEO authority to sign the
+      store-closure list within 3 weeks.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO move that commits to a broad "turnaround plan" without
+      authorizing store closures first. History shows broad plans with
+      no site closures burn cash and produce Q3 insolvency instead of a
+      reset. Particularly allergic to Communications-led store-preservation
+      promises.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Operational authority. Will produce specific site lists with EBITDA
+      contribution data. Natural ally of CFO Brandtner on financial
+      realism; natural tension with CHRO Huber and the works councils.
+  - id: cco
+    label: Petra Ebner, Chief Commercial Officer (buying + private label)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      19 years in DACH retail buying. Personal relationships with
+      Inditex, Marc O'Polo, P&G, L'Oréal DACH commercial leads. Last
+      round of bi-monthly buyer meetings went badly.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure explicit supplier credit support (retention-of-title
+      waiver, 60-day term reinstatement, autumn inventory release)
+      through a coordinated "CEO + key buyer dinner" in Vienna or
+      Düsseldorf within 10 days. Believes buyer confidence is the real
+      pre-condition to any restructuring, not the financial terms.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any insolvency-tinged public statement from the CEO before the
+      buyer dinners happen. Also: a CFO-led liquidity-preservation
+      memo to suppliers that reads as panic. Would collapse the P&G
+      relationship overnight.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Relational. Will push to sequence communications: buyers first,
+      press second. Has a direct line to Inditex's DACH commercial
+      director.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Mag. Alexander Huber, CHRO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Works-council specialist. Trusted by the GPA-djp Austrian leadership
+      (Teiber) and on good terms with the ver.di German office (Akman).
+      Ran the 2019 Wels DC consolidation without a single strike day.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Lock in a joint Austrian + German works-council resolution
+      committing to a 120-day negotiation window before any store
+      closures. Secure a "no compulsory redundancies through 2027" letter
+      from the CEO — conditional on the works councils withholding
+      pre-emptive public escalation.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any COO-driven site-closure list communicated before the Austrian
+      ArbVG § 109 works-council consultation has been formally initiated.
+      Triggers a VwGH filing, a GPA-djp public campaign, and ends his
+      relationship with Teiber for good.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will propose a works-council summit within 48 hours. Natural
+      tension with COO Wimmer over the closure timeline; natural ally
+      of General Counsel Stolz on procedural discipline.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Dr. Irene Stolz, General Counsel
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Ex-Wolf Theiss restructuring partner. Went to law school with
+      Nordikon administrator Ulla Reisch. Runs the relationship with
+      both administrators and the bank consortium.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Neutralize the §31 IO clawback risk on the EUR 46M 2022–2023
+      inter-company dividends. Secondary: negotiate a standstill
+      agreement with Reisch that preserves Königstadt's operational
+      independence through the summer selling season. Tertiary:
+      avoid an Austrian Oberster Gerichtshof precedent that expands
+      parent-subsidiary clawback doctrine.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any public CEO statement that characterizes Nordikon's conduct
+      as fraudulent or wrongful — provokes Reisch into the clawback
+      filing and forfeits any goodwill standstill.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Quiet authority. Will produce precise procedural proposals. Ally
+      of CHRO Huber on process discipline; tension with CFO Brandtner
+      who views the administrator-relationship posture as too soft.
+  - id: shareholder_block
+    label: Private Shareholder Block (Strolz / Grasser / Sedelmayer; voiced by Stefanie Sedelmayer)
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Combined 32.2%. Stefanie Sedelmayer (32 years old, ex-Boston
+      Consulting) is the only principal who has publicly opposed the
+      Tremont process. Karl Strolz privately called Tremont's
+      relationship lead last week. Grasser represented by lawyer Seidler;
+      silent externally.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Sedelmayer: engineer a fresh-sponsor deal that preserves the
+      private-shareholder block at no less than 22% combined post-deal.
+      Strolz (privately): extract a Tremont-backed tender for his 11.2%
+      at a modest premium and exit. Grasser: wait and see.
+      Three divergent hidden agendas inside one voice — the block is
+      structurally fragile.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Sedelmayer: any CEO move that accepts the Tremont pre-pack as the
+      base case. Strolz: any CEO rhetoric about "family-block unity"
+      that makes his private negotiation with Tremont untenable. The
+      combined block will crack on any CEO statement that assumes
+      unified shareholder posture.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Publicly claims a unified position; privately fragmented. Will
+      apply growing time pressure as the EGM-calling threshold
+      (10% of capital; anyone can trigger) looms.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Samuel Oster, Managing Director, Tremont Credit Partners LP
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      41 years old. Ex-Elliott 2011–2019, Tremont MD since 2020.
+      Harvard Law, INSEAD exchange year — fluent German. Travels with
+      Sard Verbinnen partner Helena Marx. Running the third distressed-
+      DACH-retail play of his career.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Force a pre-pack insolvency administered by a Tremont-chosen
+      administrator that allows Tremont to credit-bid its 43% bond
+      holding into 65–75% of the equity at emergence. Prevent any
+      fresh-sponsor deal that would lift bond recoveries above 35
+      cents. Position Tremont as the credible long-term owner of a
+      consolidated DACH department-store platform to market to LPs.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A credible fresh-sponsor offer with bank-consortium lock-up
+      secured. A coordinated joint statement by the supplier
+      consortium (Inditex + P&G + L'Oréal) pledging continued supply
+      on a going-concern basis independent of ownership. An Austrian
+      court clawback decision in Königstadt's favour that shrinks the
+      distressed-asset pool.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Maintains a private multi-turn plan drafted at game start.
+      Only revises on surprise (plausibility >= 4). Prefers moves that
+      fracture the shareholder block, fracture the bank consortium, and
+      isolate the CEO from the family principals. Every move has a
+      coordinated Helena Marx media beat. Will negotiate bilaterally
+      with Strolz, with individual banks, and with Reisch in parallel.
+  - id: lender_consortium
+    label: Bank Consortium (Erste / RBI / UniCredit Austria / BayernLB / Helaba; voiced by Dr. Clemens Maier)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Five banks, EUR 270M RCF maturing April 30. Clemens Maier (Erste)
+      is the lead arranger and the shepherd. The consortium is not
+      fully unified — UniCredit Austria (D'Amato) is privately
+      sympathetic to a fast work-out; BayernLB (Pöltl) and Helaba
+      (Fischer) are more patient if a credible fresh-sponsor track
+      exists.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Get paid in full at April 30 or roll the RCF on tight conditions
+      (secured, 12-month max, covenant reset). Maier personally wants
+      to avoid a high-profile Erste-led retail loss in a year when Erste
+      is courting new Austrian corporate clients. Silently: prefers a
+      fresh-sponsor outcome to a Tremont-led restructuring because the
+      bank wants to remain in the new capital structure, not get taken
+      out at bond-holder recoveries.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO move that signals willingness to engage Tremont on a
+      pre-pack path without a parallel fresh-sponsor. Collapses Maier's
+      ability to hold the consortium together. Also: a communications
+      move that frames the RCF decision as political — banks do not
+      want to be cast as villains.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Will respond to specific, sequenced proposals. Requires weekly
+      written cash updates from Brandtner. Will lock up individual
+      banks if a credible fresh-sponsor term sheet exists by Turn 3.
+  - id: administrator
+    label: Dr. Ulla Reisch (Nordikon Holding administrator, Wolf Theiss)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Senior Wolf Theiss restructuring partner. Holds 67.8% of
+      Königstadt's economic rights as Nordikon's administrator.
+      Law-school classmate of Königstadt's General Counsel Stolz —
+      a personal relationship that cuts both ways.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Maximize the Nordikon estate's recovery. Königstadt is her
+      largest asset, and the 2022–2023 intercompany dividend stream
+      (EUR 46M, potentially clawback-able under §31 IO) is the single
+      largest discretionary recovery opportunity. Wants to pressure-
+      test whether Königstadt is worth more alive (as an operating
+      company) or dead (as lease / inventory liquidation). Will work
+      with whichever outcome maximizes the Nordikon recovery.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A Königstadt public narrative that portrays the administrator as
+      an adversary — would trigger the clawback filing she'd otherwise
+      keep in reserve. Any asset sale from Königstadt (e.g. the Wels
+      DC) without administrator consent.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Procedural. Will meet with General Counsel Stolz privately every
+      10 days. Activates on anchor specificity (statute, filing
+      deadlines, numbers). Her posture shifts dramatically based on
+      whether Königstadt's CEO engages her constructively or adversarially.
+  - id: media
+    label: DACH Media Consortium (Der Standard / Kurier / trend / Handelsblatt / Reuters)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Five voices merged:
+      - **Andreas Schnauder (Der Standard)** — broke the triangle piece.
+      - **Andrea Hodoschek (Kurier)** — long-time Austrian corporate
+        journalist; respected across boards.
+      - **Stefan Melichar (trend)** — long-form; rumoured to have
+        Königstadt's 13-week cash plan.
+      - **Melanie Bergermann (Handelsblatt)** — covers German store
+        impact and DACH retail consolidation.
+      - **Francois Murphy (Reuters Vienna)** — moves markets and the
+        English-language narrative.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Own the next angle — ideally an internal document that
+      contradicts the CEO's public narrative, a named bank consortium
+      member breaking ranks, or a works-council resolution going public.
+      Schnauder wants the Tremont play-book; Hodoschek wants the
+      shareholder fracture; Melichar wants the cash plan; Bergermann
+      wants the German store-closure list; Murphy wants the market move.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      CEO silence. Legal-hedged statements. Press releases without a
+      named executive and a concrete number. "We are working
+      constructively with all stakeholders" language — actively
+      punished.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Amplifies bold specific moves; punishes corporate-speak. Will
+      front-page any named CEO statement that includes a specific
+      number of stores, a specific date, and a specific sponsor track.
+      Will also front-page a Tremont leak that positions them as the
+      disciplined investor.
+  - id: supplier_cluster
+    label: Supplier Cluster (Inditex / P&G / L'Oréal / Marc O'Polo; voiced by Inditex DACH commercial director)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Represents the autumn / Christmas inventory supply chain —
+      EUR 120M committed, summer deliveries starting in 6 weeks.
+      Inditex is the swing voice; P&G has already moved Königstadt to
+      cash-in-advance.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Obtain a CEO-signed going-concern letter co-signed by the
+      administrator — that is the only document that reinstates normal
+      trade terms. Short of that, pull autumn inventory and redirect it
+      to German / Austrian competitors (Peek & Cloppenburg, Breuninger,
+      Gerngross) by Turn 3.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any public CEO statement that uses insolvency-adjacent language
+      without a simultaneous going-concern commitment. Even the word
+      "restructuring" triggers a supply-chain freeze at Inditex.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Decides in 72-hour windows. Will coordinate position across the
+      four named suppliers if the CEO requests a joint dinner. Will
+      freeze shipments unilaterally within 10 days if there is silence.

wargame/scenarios/signa_contagion/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Königstadt Warenhaus Holding GmbH",
+  "rival_name": "Tremont Credit Partners LP (Samuel Oster, MD)",
+  "industry": "DACH department-store retail (73 stores AT/DE/CZ)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "revenue", "label": "Annual revenue (€M)", "value": 2100.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 0.0 },
+    { "key": "ebitda", "label": "EBITDA (€M)", "value": 38.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": -16.0 },
+    { "key": "cash_runway_weeks", "label": "Liquidity runway (weeks)", "value": 12.0, "unit": "weeks", "delta_last_turn": -8.0 },
+    { "key": "rcf_maturity_days", "label": "RCF maturity countdown (days)", "value": 96.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": -21.0 },
+    { "key": "tremont_bond_holding", "label": "Tremont % of Königstadt bond", "value": 43.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 43.0 },
+    { "key": "autumn_inventory_committed", "label": "Autumn inventory committed (€M)", "value": 120.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 120.0 },
+    { "key": "supplier_payment_terms", "label": "Weighted supplier payment terms (days)", "value": 38.0, "unit": "days", "delta_last_turn": -22.0 },
+    { "key": "clawback_exposure", "label": "Potential §31 IO clawback exposure (€M)", "value": 46.0, "unit": "€M", "delta_last_turn": 46.0 },
+    { "key": "works_council_alarm", "label": "Works council alarm (AT + DE)", "value": 3.0, "unit": "0=calm 4=wildcat strike", "delta_last_turn": 2.0 },
+    { "key": "shareholder_block_stability", "label": "Private shareholder block stability", "value": 48.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -27.0 },
+    { "key": "media_pressure", "label": "Media pressure index", "value": 76.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": 44.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 52.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -25.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "Der Standard and Kurier's joint A1 piece mapped the Nordikon / Königstadt / Tremont triangle for the Austrian business audience. trend is expected to run long-form next week — Stefan Melichar is believed to have the draft 13-week cash plan. Handelsblatt has picked up the DACH consolidation angle, framing Königstadt as 'next in line after Galeria.' Reuters Vienna has the story in English. The Austrian Retail Association has publicly questioned supply-chain viability; Inditex has said nothing publicly but has moved internally to cash-on-delivery preparation. The CEO has not yet given an interview.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "November 29 — Nordikon Holding AG (67.8% parent) files Sanierungsverfahren. Administrator: Dr. Ulla Reisch (Wolf Theiss).",
+    "December 6 — Nordikon Prime Real Estate (landlord on 41/73 stores) files separate Sanierungsverfahren. Administrator: Dr. Norbert Abel (CMS).",
+    "December 18 — Administrators announce February 3 auction of the Nordikon Prime lease portfolio.",
+    "January 4 — Tremont Credit Partners LP (Samuel Oster) discloses 43% of the EUR 680M Königstadt unsecured bond.",
+    "January 11 — Handelsverband Österreich board publicly questions Königstadt supply-chain viability.",
+    "January 18 — Der Standard / Kurier joint A1 piece on the Nordikon-Königstadt-Tremont triangle.",
+    "January 20 — Inditex DACH commercial director requests a 'going-concern letter' co-signed by the administrator before releasing autumn inventory.",
+    "January 22 — Strolz family principal Karl Strolz privately telephones Tremont's relationship lead.",
+    "January 24 — Bank consortium informs Königstadt the EUR 270M RCF will not be renewed at April 30 without a sponsor or Tremont consent.",
+    "January 26 — Stefanie Sedelmayer publicly breaks with Strolz, calling the Tremont process 'opportunistic.'",
+    "January 28 — trend (Stefan Melichar) emails the CFO's office asking for comment on '13-week cash-flow assumptions' — strong signal the plan has leaked.",
+    "January 29 — P&G DACH moves Königstadt to cash-in-advance on January shipments (down 38% YoY).",
+    "January 30 — CEO Dr. Florian Leitner has not yet made a public statement."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/signa_contagion/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,176 @@
+# Königstadt Warenhaus Holding GmbH — Signa Contagion World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the Signa Holding insolvency cascade of
+> late 2023 and its impact on retail subsidiaries (Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof,
+> Kika-Leiner, SportScheck). Names, numbers, and events are invented.
+> Do not treat as a reference to any real company, transaction, or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Königstadt Warenhaus Holding GmbH (Vienna-registered GmbH,
+  parent of **73 department-store locations** across Austria, Germany,
+  and the Czech Republic; trading brands "Königstadt" and "Stadtpalais").
+- **Revenue**: EUR 2.1B (FY2024). **EBITDA**: EUR 38M (1.8% margin,
+  barely above operating break-even).
+- **Employees**: 11,400 across 73 stores + 2 distribution centres
+  (Wels AT, Bremen DE) + the Vienna head office (340 FTE).
+- **Ownership**: 67.8% via Königstadt BetriebsGmbH, which is itself an
+  82%-owned subsidiary of the now-insolvent **Nordikon Holding AG**
+  (Vienna; filed Sanierungsverfahren on November 29). Remaining 32.2%
+  with a consortium of three Austrian private investors (the Strolz,
+  Grasser, and Sedelmayer families).
+- **Real estate split**: of 73 locations, **41 are on sale-and-leaseback
+  leases** with properties owned by **Nordikon Prime Real Estate GmbH**
+  (also now in insolvency), 19 are ground-leased from municipal
+  landlords, 8 are Königstadt-owned freehold, 5 are third-party
+  commercial leases.
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Florian Leitner**, 49. Appointed October last year after
+  a 12-year career at Woolworth / Peek & Cloppenburg DACH. Signed onto
+  a turnaround plan that assumed Nordikon sponsorship.
+
+## The disrupting event (9 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **November 29**: Nordikon Holding AG files Sanierungsverfahren
+  (Austrian court-supervised restructuring). Insolvency administrator:
+  **Dr. Ulla Reisch** (Wolf Theiss, Vienna).
+- **December 6**: Nordikon Prime Real Estate (the landlord on 41 of
+  Königstadt's stores) files its own Sanierungsverfahren. Separate
+  administrator: **Dr. Norbert Abel** (CMS Reich-Rohrwig).
+- **December 18**: The two administrators jointly announce an auction
+  process for the Nordikon Prime lease portfolio, beginning February 3.
+  Leases to be sold individually or in regional clusters.
+- **January 4**: **Tremont Credit Partners LP** (New York, $14B AUM;
+  MD **Samuel Oster**) discloses it has acquired **43% of Königstadt's
+  EUR 680M unsecured bond** from a secondary market position built
+  over 5 weeks. Tremont is a distressed-debt specialist — won the 2018
+  Steinhoff consolidation, the 2021 Monte dei Paschi claims, the 2023
+  Pierer Mobility claims tranche.
+- **January 11**: The 9-member *Handelsverband Österreich* (Austrian
+  Retail Association) board publicly questions Königstadt's supply-chain
+  viability; Austrian trade press follows.
+- **January 18**: *Der Standard* (Andreas Schnauder) and *Kurier*
+  (Andrea Hodoschek) publish a joint piece mapping the Nordikon /
+  Königstadt / Tremont triangle on A1.
+- **January 24**: Bank consortium (Erste, RBI, UniCredit Austria,
+  BayernLB, Helaba) informs Königstadt that the EUR 270M revolving
+  credit facility will not be renewed at its April 30 maturity without
+  a fresh sponsor or a Tremont consent letter.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Florian Leitner, CEO. 90 days into the job. Did not know
+  Nordikon's own liquidity picture when he signed. Now has 12 weeks
+  of runway and three separate insolvency proceedings adjacent to him.
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Samuel Oster**, Managing Director, Tremont Credit Partners LP.
+  New York-based. 41 years old. Harvard Law, ex-Elliott 2011–2019.
+  Owns the credit thesis and the committee relationships. Fluent in
+  German (MBA INSEAD exchange year). Travels with his own PR advisor
+  — Sard Verbinnen partner, Helena Marx — and his own press-relations
+  playbook.
+- **Core posture**: force Königstadt into a pre-pack insolvency
+  administered by Tremont's chosen administrator, which would allow
+  Tremont to credit-bid its bond holding into the equity stack at 18
+  cents on the euro. Secondary: block any fresh-sponsor injection that
+  would restore bond recoveries above 35 cents (Tremont's base-case
+  exit). Tertiary: position Tremont as the credible long-term owner of
+  DACH department stores and begin marketing a broader DACH retail
+  platform.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Florian Leitner** — CEO.
+- **Mag. Lisa Brandtner** — CFO. 38 years old, ex-CA Immo real-estate
+  controller. Hired October to take control of the lease book.
+- **Dr. Jürgen Wimmer** — COO / Head of Retail Operations. 22 years at
+  Königstadt; through four previous ownership changes.
+- **Petra Ebner** — Chief Commercial Officer, buyer relationships
+  (Zara / Esprit / Marc O'Polo / P&G / Unilever) and private-label
+  strategy.
+- **Mag. Alexander Huber** — CHRO. Lead contact with the Austrian
+  **GPA-djp** union and 73 local works councils (German Betriebsrat
+  at the 23 German stores; Austrian Betriebsrat at the 47 AT stores;
+  2 Czech stores non-unionised).
+- **Dr. Irene Stolz** — General Counsel. Ex-Wolf Theiss. Unusual
+  proximity: went to law school with Ulla Reisch, the Nordikon
+  administrator.
+
+### Ownership
+- **Königstadt BetriebsGmbH** (67.8% — via Nordikon, now in
+  administration; Ulla Reisch exercises the economic rights).
+- **Strolz family** (11.2% — represented by Karl Strolz, 71, who
+  privately telephoned the Tremont relationship lead last week).
+- **Grasser family** (12.9% — lawyer of record: Dr. Simon Seidler).
+- **Sedelmayer family** (8.1% — youngest principal Stefanie Sedelmayer
+  is the only shareholder rep who has opposed the Tremont process
+  publicly).
+
+### Insolvency administrators (adjacent, not internal)
+- **Dr. Ulla Reisch** (Wolf Theiss) — Nordikon Holding administrator.
+- **Dr. Norbert Abel** (CMS Reich-Rohrwig) — Nordikon Prime Real
+  Estate administrator. Effectively Königstadt's largest landlord today.
+
+### Lender consortium
+- **Erste Group Bank AG** — lead arranger, EUR 95M exposure. Relationship
+  director: Dr. Clemens Maier.
+- **RBI** — EUR 60M. Bernhard Kotanko.
+- **UniCredit Austria** — EUR 55M. Giulia D'Amato.
+- **BayernLB** — EUR 35M. Dr. Karl-Heinz Pöltl.
+- **Helaba** — EUR 25M. Nina Fischer.
+
+### Customers / suppliers
+- **Zara / Inditex** — signals it will pull inventory on any insolvency
+  rumour; Königstadt is its 9th largest European wholesale account.
+- **L'Oréal Austria** — 60-day payment term; will invoke retention of
+  title on any administrator appointment.
+- **P&G DACH** — has already moved to cash-in-advance. January shipments
+  down 38% YoY.
+- **Christmas / Easter inventory** — EUR 120M already committed with
+  Asian suppliers for the summer/autumn season; cancellation penalty
+  ~EUR 22M.
+
+### Unions
+- **GPA-djp** (Austrian private-sector) — General Secretary Barbara
+  Teiber. 8,400 Königstadt members across 47 Austrian stores.
+- **ver.di** (German services union) — Orhan Akman, retail policy.
+  3,100 members across 23 German stores.
+
+### Government
+- **AMS** (Austrian labour-market service) — 4,800 employees would
+  potentially pass through Kurzarbeit if a partial closure follows.
+- **Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Wirtschaft** (BMAW) — Minister
+  Kocher's office has scheduled a crisis meeting for Turn 2.
+- **Bundesfinanzministerium** — COFAG-successor vehicle exists but no
+  explicit retail-sector bailout tool.
+
+### Media
+- **Der Standard** — Andreas Schnauder, broke the triangle piece.
+- **Kurier** — Andrea Hodoschek.
+- **trend** — Stefan Melichar.
+- **Handelsblatt (Düsseldorf)** — covers the German store impact;
+  Melanie Bergermann on the retail beat.
+- **Reuters Vienna** — Francois Murphy.
+
+## What the player does not know (fog of war)
+
+- Whether Tremont has already secured a "lock-up" agreement with any
+  lender in the consortium (the EUR 270M RCF is the critical piece;
+  rumoured UniCredit Austria sympathy to a short-fuse work-out).
+- Whether Dr. Ulla Reisch (Nordikon administrator) is preparing to file
+  a clawback action under §31 IO (Austrian insolvency code) on
+  inter-company dividends paid by Königstadt to Nordikon in 2022–2023
+  (total EUR 46M).
+- Whether the Strolz family's private outreach to Tremont means they
+  will break ranks at a shareholder meeting — and whether their
+  combined 32.2% block with Grasser and Sedelmayer is stable.
+- Whether Tremont already has a bidder lined up for the 41 leases in
+  the Nordikon Prime auction (rumoured: an Apollo-backed retail-real-
+  estate roll-up).
+- Whether the German Betriebsrat at the 23 German stores will coordinate
+  with ver.di on a pre-emptive DACH works-council council (EBR) escalation
+  that would constrain any restructuring.
+- Whether *trend*'s Stefan Melichar has obtained Königstadt's draft
+  13-week cash plan from an internal source.

wargame/scenarios/swiss_bank_contagion/agents.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,332 @@
+scenario_id: swiss_bank_contagion
+company_name: Zürich Privatbank AG
+rival_name: Morgan Sterling Private Wealth (Marcus Trent, Head of Swiss Lateral Strategy)
+industry: Swiss private banking (UHNW, CHF 142B AUM)
+player_role: CEO (Dr. Pascal Küng)
+agents:
+  - id: cfo
+    label: Philippe Renou, CFO
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      48 years old, ex-PwC Zurich banking partner. 5 years at ZPB.
+      Owns the FINMA capital relationship and reports quarterly to
+      Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb's family office. Has been running the
+      Pillar-2 capital plan model for 4 weeks.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Deliver a formal Pillar-2 response to FINMA that (a) commits to
+      16.5% CET1 by end-Q4 via retained earnings + a CHF 200M
+      subordinated Tier-1 issue placed privately with the family
+      trust + Baloise, and (b) visibly accelerates cost-out in
+      non-revenue functions. Avoid at all cost a forced equity
+      injection — the family trust has told him this would be read
+      as a governance failure.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO-driven retention-package expansion that hits the
+      cost-income ratio above 82% without a corresponding FINMA
+      acknowledgement. Would break the Pillar-2 plan. Also
+      specifically: any move by Chief People Officer Tschudi to
+      match Morgan Sterling forward-guarantee economics — the math
+      doesn't work at ZPB scale.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Numbers-first. Will produce capital plan, NNM bridge, and
+      cost-income bridge on demand. Natural tension with Stefan
+      Häberli (Head of Wealth) who wants bigger retention cheques.
+      Natural ally of Frei (GC) on regulatory posture.
+  - id: head_of_wealth
+    label: Dr. Stefan Häberli, Head of Wealth Management
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      57, ex-Pictet senior partner, ex-Vontobel. 9 years at ZPB.
+      Personal relationships with ~30 of the top 50 client families.
+      Privately enraged that Morgan Sterling made the first wave of
+      hires before he was authorized to counter.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Secure immediate CEO authority for a tier-1 retention package
+      for the 12 at-risk RMs: 4-year deferred-comp cliff at 2.5×
+      current, partnership-track equity for 4 identified individuals,
+      plus an unlisted family-trust-backed "founders' shares" scheme
+      for the top 3. Believes the franchise is in the RMs' heads —
+      lose them and nothing else matters. Wants personal client-family
+      dinners (CEO + Häberli) with the top 15 families within 4 weeks.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any cost-discipline posture from the CFO that signals to the
+      RMs "you are a cost centre." Also any compliance-led framing
+      of the Russia-nexus AUM that could spook the Middle East
+      family offices (who are NOT Russian but are culturally
+      risk-sensitive to reputational drift).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Relational. Will reference specific client families by name.
+      Tension with CFO Renou on retention economics; tension with
+      General Counsel Frei on compliance posture toward certain
+      family-office structures.
+  - id: cio
+    label: Dr. Cornelia Oberholzer, Chief Investment Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      51, ex-LGT. Owns the discretionary-mandate franchise that
+      delivered 2024 performance +7.8% vs peer 4.2%. Has noticed
+      that the resigned RMs' books are disproportionately
+      discretionary, not advisory — i.e., her performance story
+      is what retains clients once the RM is gone.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Get CEO authorization to publish a quarterly mandate-performance
+      fact book with named strategies (currently internal-only) to
+      differentiate ZPB's substance from the RM-franchise narrative.
+      Secondary: secure CHRO agreement to elevate the three
+      senior portfolio managers into client-facing relationship
+      capacity as a parallel track — defensive, slow, but structural.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CEO move that reduces investments-function headcount as
+      part of a cost-out plan — the CFO's base-case Pillar-2 response
+      includes a 7% investments-team cut. Also: any public framing
+      from Communications that treats performance numbers as
+      "supporting evidence" rather than "the franchise."
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Precise, data-driven. Will bring actual performance numbers
+      and attribution. Natural tension with the CFO on any
+      cost-cut proposal affecting her team; natural ally of the
+      CEO if he plays the "substance over relationships" card.
+  - id: general_counsel
+    label: Martin Frei, General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      55, former FINMA enforcement division. Owns FINMA, SECO,
+      and bank-client-confidentiality relationships. Wrote the
+      March 14 Russia-nexus AUM memo.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Get CEO sign-off on a structured exit from the CHF 1.8B of
+      Russia-nexus AUM within 120 days — via referral to a licensed
+      Liechtenstein or Dubai booking centre, NOT to Morgan Sterling
+      (even though Morgan Sterling is actively signalling appetite).
+      Avoid a SECO inquiry by voluntarily disclosing the review
+      before FINMA asks. Preserve the bank's regulatory capital to
+      rebuild, not defend.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any Head-of-Wealth move that keeps the Russia-nexus AUM for
+      revenue reasons. Also: any communications-led framing of the
+      Morgan Sterling rivalry as a "war" — would be read in Bern
+      as defensive posturing incompatible with a FINMA Pillar-2
+      response.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Careful, sequenced. Will bring legal letters and regulatory
+      framework cites. Natural tension with Häberli over the
+      Russia AUM; natural ally of CFO Renou on FINMA posture.
+  - id: chro
+    label: Isabelle Tschudi, Chief People Officer
+    kind: internal
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      46, ex-Julius Bär HR, ex-Lombard Odier. Built the ZPB
+      retention architecture in 2022–2023. Now watching Morgan
+      Sterling break her model with larger guarantees than she
+      can match.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Get board approval for a two-tier retention response: (1) a
+      surgical named-package for the top 12 RMs matching Morgan
+      Sterling's forward guarantee (CHF 4–6M per head, 4-year
+      cliff), (2) a broader culture-and-career response for the
+      next-50 RMs (partnership pathway, portfolio-management
+      rotations, client-attribution reform). Wants the CEO to
+      personally do the retention calls for the top 12 within
+      7 days.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Any CFO posture that treats retention as a discretionary
+      expense item subordinate to Pillar-2 arithmetic. In her
+      analysis, losing 12 more RMs costs more than the retention
+      packages five times over — and FINMA will not be persuaded
+      by a bank that is losing its franchise.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Pragmatic, internally political. Will reference comp data
+      and lateral-market rates. Natural tension with CFO on
+      retention budget; natural ally of Head of Wealth on
+      urgency.
+  - id: family_trust
+    label: Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb (via her chief of staff Dr. Paul Trüeb-Zweifel)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      Family trust controls 38% of the bank. Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb,
+      81, is the chair; Paul Trüeb-Zweifel (her nephew-by-marriage
+      and chief of staff) is the operational interface. Paul is
+      54, ex-UBS Zurich IB, culturally traditional but numerate.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Preserve the family's control structure at any cost above
+      liquidity — meaning: accept a capital shortfall solution
+      that dilutes the family stake ONLY if the alternative is
+      regulatory intervention. The trust is prepared to provide
+      CHF 100–150M of fresh subordinated capital if the CEO
+      asks correctly, publicly, and once. Wants a real strategic
+      response, not incremental defensive moves. Elisabeth is
+      considering whether Pascal Küng is the right CEO for a
+      five-year rebuild — that question has not been asked, but
+      the Weltwoche interview was the first signal.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO who asks for capital without having first shown that
+      he has authority over his own management team. Specifically:
+      asking the trust before the retention response is defined
+      would be read as "the boy is asking his aunt for help" and
+      would harden Elisabeth against him. Also: any board-level
+      action that bypasses the family trust's 38% position.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Deliberate, culturally weighted. Will reference the bank's
+      history and long-term franchise. Paul speaks for Elisabeth;
+      Elisabeth intervenes directly only on signature moments.
+      Natural tension with any CEO move that looks transactional
+      or panicked.
+  - id: rival_ceo
+    label: Marcus Trent, Head of Swiss Lateral Strategy — Morgan Sterling Private Wealth
+    kind: external
+    special: rival_ceo
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      49, ex-Julius Bär lateral head, ex-UBS Wealth Americas. Built
+      the Morgan Sterling Swiss onshore business case on a 3-year
+      CHF 25B AUM acquisition target. Budget: USD 180M for
+      guaranteed packages across this build-out. Thinks in team
+      lift-outs, not individual hires.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Announce a second wave of 8–10 ZPB RMs in Turn 3 or 4, timed
+      to coincide with either the SBA annual conference or the
+      FINMA Bern dialogue — whichever produces the bigger
+      ambient pressure. Secondary: signal to ZPB's Russia-nexus
+      family clients that Morgan Sterling's US compliance stack
+      can "process legitimately what ZPB cannot" — extracting both
+      AUM and narrative. Tertiary: position Morgan Sterling to be
+      the logical onshore consolidator if ZPB's Pillar-2 response
+      fails and the family trust loses patience.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      None (this is the adversary).
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Competitive, well-resourced, well-informed. Watches the
+      media cycle. Uses timed announcements. Has visibility into
+      ZPB's internal retention model via the 6 RMs already poached.
+      If the player surprises him (e.g., a structural response
+      that repositions ZPB beyond just-defence), he revises the
+      full lateral-hiring roadmap and narrows the target.
+  - id: finma
+    label: Dr. Ursula Vetterli, FINMA Lead Supervisor (Bern)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      58, ex-SNB. Lead supervisor for ZPB. Wrote the February 11
+      Pillar-2 letter. Under internal FINMA pressure — the
+      post-CS supervisory regime is explicitly tougher on
+      concentration and governance risk at mid-sized Swiss houses.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Deliver a credible supervisory outcome on ZPB before the
+      Q3 supervisory cycle: either a signed capital plan achieving
+      16.5% CET1 by Q4, or a formal business-model review under
+      FINMA Circular 2011/2 if the bank cannot stabilize its
+      revenue base. The preferred outcome is the former — FINMA
+      does not want another visible Swiss private-banking
+      disruption.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A CEO-led media push that frames ZPB's situation as a
+      franchise story rather than a regulatory-and-capital story.
+      FINMA would read this as deflection. Also: any communications
+      response to Morgan Sterling that reads as combative — FINMA
+      wants to see management focus on the capital plan and the
+      client book, not on the competitor.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Institutional, careful. Will reference FINMA circulars and
+      peer precedent (BSI, Falcon, CS). Communicates primarily
+      through formal channels but can signal off-record via the
+      SBA or the SNB. Natural interlocutor: GC Frei and CFO Renou.
+  - id: key_client
+    label: Mohammed Al-Rashid, Principal — Al-Rashid Family Office (Dubai)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      63, patriarch of a top-3 ZPB client family (CHF 2.8B AUM).
+      Relationship began in 1998. His primary RM, Andreas Lengauer,
+      resigned on February 4. Has not yet moved money but has
+      taken a first call with Marcus Trent's team.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Establish whether ZPB intends to remain a real private bank
+      or to become a capital-constrained cost-out story. Would
+      prefer to keep the book at ZPB — switching is expensive and
+      culturally uncomfortable — but needs (a) a named senior
+      relationship owner (likely Häberli or CEO personally), and
+      (b) a coherent 24-month strategic narrative, ideally with
+      the family trust visibly behind it. Will test the bank in
+      the next two turns.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A ZPB response that treats his book as retention-pipeline
+      rather than a principal relationship. Also: any
+      compliance-driven re-papering exercise on his custody
+      structure during this window — would be read as the bank
+      getting nervous.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Relational, private, direct. Will ask for a personal CEO
+      meeting. Pays attention to how ZPB communicates publicly.
+      The decision-making unit is Mohammed + his CFO nephew.
+      Can move the book in 6 weeks if he decides to.
+  - id: sba
+    label: August Benz, Chair — Swiss Bankers Association (SBA)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      62, former CEO of a Zurich cantonal bank. SBA Chair since
+      2022. Sees the "third wave" of post-CS outflow concentrating
+      in 3 mid-sized houses, of which ZPB is one.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Prevent a second visible disruption of the Swiss private-banking
+      brand. Would offer ZPB a back-channel to FINMA and an SBA
+      industry-support narrative if ZPB commits to a credible
+      capital and franchise plan. Does not want ZPB at the SBA
+      annual conference in Turn 2 unless the CEO has something
+      substantive to say. Would consider a coordinated "peer
+      response" statement.
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      A ZPB move that pulls SBA into competitive warfare with
+      Morgan Sterling — the SBA's members include both sides of
+      this fight. Also: any CEO statement that implies Swiss
+      supervision is itself part of the problem.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Diplomatic, institutional. Will reference peer precedent.
+      Natural ally of FINMA's institutional interest; can signal
+      to media on background but does not drive headlines.
+  - id: media
+    label: Daniel Imwinkelried, NZZ (lead) + Claude Baumann (Finews) + Owen Walker (FT) + Dirk Schütz (Bilanz)
+    kind: external
+    special: none
+    model_role: agent
+    posture: |
+      NZZ's Imwinkelried set the Swiss frame with the February 22
+      piece; Finews's Baumann runs the daily news engine and has
+      live intelligence on lateral hires; FT's Walker is
+      international banking-beat; Schütz at Bilanz has the Küng
+      profile relationship and would have first claim on any major
+      CEO interview.
+    hidden_agenda: |
+      Move the story from "ZPB bleeding RMs" to one of three
+      possible frames: (a) "ZPB repositions: the substance bank"
+      (positive), (b) "Küng tested: can the nephew run a crisis"
+      (narrative), or (c) "ZPB capitulates: the Pillar-2 fix fails"
+      (negative). Looking for a real interview — not a statement,
+      not a doorstep — ideally with CEO + a senior family-trust
+      voice together (unprecedented and therefore newsworthy).
+    hidden_irritant: |
+      Messaging that overclaims (e.g., "record NNM pipeline in Q2"
+      without receipts). Will be checked and will backfire. Also:
+      any communication that treats the Morgan Sterling story as
+      ZPB's main story — the real story, per Imwinkelried, is
+      the capital-and-franchise pivot.
+    behavior_notes: |
+      Swiss and international press pack with differentiated beats.
+      Imwinkelried sets the sober frame; Baumann breaks intraday;
+      Walker sets the international narrative; Schütz owns the
+      "CEO as a character" piece.

wargame/scenarios/swiss_bank_contagion/initial_state.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "company_name": "Zürich Privatbank AG",
+  "rival_name": "Morgan Sterling Private Wealth (Marcus Trent, Head of Swiss Lateral Strategy)",
+  "industry": "Swiss private banking (UHNW, CHF 142B AUM)",
+  "turn": 0,
+  "max_turns": 5,
+  "metrics": [
+    { "key": "aum", "label": "Assets under management (CHF B)", "value": 142.0, "unit": "CHF B", "delta_last_turn": -3.0 },
+    { "key": "nnm_ytd", "label": "Net new money YTD (CHF B)", "value": -14.0, "unit": "CHF B", "delta_last_turn": -14.0 },
+    { "key": "cet1_ratio", "label": "CET1 ratio (%)", "value": 14.5, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": -0.4 },
+    { "key": "finma_floor_target", "label": "FINMA proposed CET1 floor (%)", "value": 16.5, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 4.5 },
+    { "key": "rm_retention_top12", "label": "Top-12 RM retention (of 12)", "value": 6.0, "unit": "count", "delta_last_turn": -6.0 },
+    { "key": "rm_books_lost", "label": "AUM booked to departed RMs (CHF B)", "value": 3.0, "unit": "CHF B", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "russia_nexus_aum", "label": "Russia-nexus AUM flagged (CHF B)", "value": 1.8, "unit": "CHF B", "delta_last_turn": 1.8 },
+    { "key": "cost_income_ratio", "label": "Cost / income ratio (%)", "value": 79.0, "unit": "%", "delta_last_turn": 3.0 },
+    { "key": "analyst_rating", "label": "Autonomous analyst score (0=UP 4=OP)", "value": 1.0, "unit": "/4", "delta_last_turn": -2.0 },
+    { "key": "client_confidence_index", "label": "Top-50 client confidence index (/100)", "value": 58.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -18.0 },
+    { "key": "family_trust_confidence", "label": "Küng-Trüeb trust confidence in CEO", "value": 54.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -22.0 },
+    { "key": "exec_alignment", "label": "Exec team alignment", "value": 56.0, "unit": "/100", "delta_last_turn": -16.0 }
+  ],
+  "media_tone": "negative",
+  "public_narrative": "NZZ's Imwinkelried set the Swiss frame with his February 22 'slow-motion exodus' piece naming ZPB twice; Finews's Baumann is driving daily coverage of the lateral hires; FT's Walker added the international lens. Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb's Weltwoche interview is now read as the family trust's warning shot to her nephew CEO. Morgan Sterling made its March 9 announcement of two additional hires unusually public. Autonomous's Stalmann downgraded to Underperform on March 12 on a combined NNM + capital-floor + franchise thesis. FINMA's February 11 Pillar-2 letter is not public but is known to the SBA-connected buy-side. CEO Dr. Pascal Küng has not given a press interview since November 2023.",
+  "recent_events": [
+    "January 15 — Morgan Sterling Private Wealth opened 3rd-floor Bahnhofstrasse extension and announced Marcus Trent as Head of Swiss Lateral Strategy.",
+    "February 4 — Four Zurich-desk RMs resigned simultaneously (combined CHF 1.9B book); 90-day gardening leave triggered.",
+    "February 11 — FINMA lead supervisor Dr. Ursula Vetterli sent ZPB a Pillar-2 letter proposing 16.5% CET1 floor effective Q4; formal response due June 30.",
+    "February 22 — NZZ (Daniel Imwinkelried) published 'Swiss private banking's slow-motion exodus' naming ZPB twice.",
+    "March 1 — Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb (family trust chair) gave a Weltwoche interview saying the bank 'has to stop the bleeding.'",
+    "March 9 — Two further ZPB RMs resigned (CHF 1.1B combined); Morgan Sterling announced the hires publicly the same day.",
+    "March 12 — Autonomous's Stefan Stalmann downgraded ZPB to Underperform.",
+    "March 14 — Internal compliance review flagged CHF 1.8B of client AUM with residual Russia-nexus for enhanced review.",
+    "March 18 — Year-to-date net new money crossed CHF -14B (~10% of opening AUM).",
+    "March 22 — SBA chair August Benz signalled informally to media background that 'the third wave' of post-CS outflows concentrates at three mid-sized houses.",
+    "March 24 — Mohammed Al-Rashid's family office took a first introductory call with Morgan Sterling's team.",
+    "March 26 — Bilanz's Dirk Schütz requested a CEO interview slot for the April edition."
+  ]
+}

wargame/scenarios/swiss_bank_contagion/world_bible.md

@@ -0,0 +1,214 @@
+# Zürich Privatbank AG — Post-Contagion World Bible
+
+> *Fictional scenario inspired by the 2023–2025 reverberations in Swiss
+> private banking after the Credit Suisse collapse — the UBS lateral
+> hiring wave, FINMA's tightened supervisory posture, client-confidence
+> shocks in CHF-denominated wealth management, and the Russia-linked
+> AUM reviews. Names, numbers, and events are invented. Do not treat as
+> a reference to any real company or person.*
+
+## The Company
+
+- **Name**: Zürich Privatbank AG (Zurich-HQ; unlisted; privately held
+  but FINMA-supervised as a category-3 bank).
+- **AUM**: CHF 142B. **Operating income**: CHF 1.1B (FY2024).
+  **Net profit**: CHF 208M. **Cost/income ratio**: 79%.
+- **CET1**: 14.5% (current FINMA floor 12%; revised floor proposed 16.5%).
+- **Employees**: 850, of whom ~340 client-facing (RMs + assistants).
+- **Booking centres**: Zurich (HQ), Geneva, Luxembourg, Singapore, DIFC.
+- **Client base**: ~4,800 UHNW households. Roughly CHF 29B sits with the
+  top 50 client families. The top 12 relationship managers ("RMs")
+  manage ~CHF 38B of books — a book concentration that is both the
+  bank's franchise and its single largest structural risk.
+- **Ownership**: 38% Küng-Trüeb family trust (controlling); 42% free
+  float (privately placed — no public market); 8% Baloise; 6% Norges
+  Bank; 6% BlackRock.
+- **CEO**: **Dr. Pascal Küng**, 54. Appointed 2022. Second-generation
+  family principal — nephew of the family matriarch Elisabeth
+  Küng-Trüeb (81, trust chair). Previously head of the Geneva booking
+  centre. Not a product of the CS/UBS alumni pool; positioned internally
+  as the "continuity candidate" when the board passed over the external
+  slate.
+
+## The disrupting event (10 weeks before turn 1)
+
+- **January 15**: Morgan Sterling Private Wealth opened a 3rd-floor
+  extension at its Bahnhofstrasse Zurich office and published a
+  press release announcing "targeted lateral expansion into Swiss
+  onshore private banking." Industry-known lateral-hiring lead
+  **Marcus Trent** (ex-Julius Bär, ex-UBS Wealth) was named as Head
+  of Swiss Lateral Strategy.
+- **February 4**: Four RMs on the Zurich German-Swiss desk resigned
+  simultaneously, triggering a 90-day gardening-leave clock. Combined
+  book ~CHF 1.9B. Industry consensus (per Finews) is that Morgan
+  Sterling is the destination. ZPB's retention response (matching
+  buyout + deferred comp cliff) is viewed internally as too late.
+- **February 11**: FINMA lead supervisor **Dr. Ursula Vetterli**
+  (Bern) sent ZPB a Pillar 2 supervisory letter proposing a raised
+  CET1 floor of **16.5%** (current 12% floor + 4.5% institution-specific
+  add-on) effective from **Q4**. Letter cites "concentration risk in
+  relationship-manager-dependent revenue stream" and "heightened
+  peer-group outflow correlation." ZPB has **until June 30** to
+  respond formally.
+- **February 22**: *NZZ*'s Daniel Imwinkelried published "Swiss
+  private banking's slow-motion exodus" — a 3,200-word piece naming
+  ZPB twice as one of three mid-sized Swiss houses "losing the
+  post-CS talent arbitrage."
+- **March 1**: Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb (family trust chair, 81, normally
+  media-quiet) gave a *Weltwoche* interview arguing the bank "has to
+  stop the bleeding" and referred obliquely to "boardroom indecision."
+  The interview is read inside ZPB as a family-trust warning shot to
+  her nephew.
+- **March 9**: Two further RMs (one Geneva desk, one Zurich
+  family-office-channel) resigned. Morgan Sterling announced the hires
+  publicly the same day — an unusually aggressive signal. Combined
+  books ~CHF 1.1B.
+- **March 12**: Autonomous Research's Stefan Stalmann downgraded ZPB
+  from Neutral to Underperform, citing "NNM trajectory plus capital
+  floor mechanics plus a CEO franchise question."
+- **March 14**: A compliance review internal to ZPB flagged CHF 1.8B
+  of client AUM with residual Russian nexus (post-Feb-2022 but
+  pre-Oct-2023 relationships where beneficial-ownership structures
+  changed). General Counsel circulated a memo framing this as "SECO
+  and FINMA disclosure-triggering" if the net new money flows continue
+  to be reported without flagging.
+- **March 18**: Year-to-date net new money crossed **CHF -14B**,
+  representing ~10% of opening AUM — a pace materially worse than
+  peer disclosure.
+
+## The player
+
+- Dr. Pascal Küng, CEO. Has not given a press interview since the
+  November 2023 *Bilanz* profile. Upcoming scheduled appearances:
+  Swiss Bankers Association annual conference (Basel, Turn 2);
+  FINMA-supervised dialogue (Bern, Turn 3); family trust AGM (Turn 5).
+
+## The rival
+
+- **Marcus Trent**, 49. Head of Swiss Lateral Strategy, Morgan
+  Sterling Private Wealth (US wirehouse, Swiss presence via its
+  Zurich and Geneva bank subsidiaries). Previously head of lateral
+  recruiting at Julius Bär (2018–2022) and UBS Wealth Management
+  Americas inbound-Swiss desk (2014–2018). Known in the market for
+  structured team-lift-outs with 4-year guarantee packages funded
+  against a forward revenue model.
+- **Core posture**: complete a structured 15-RM team lift-out from
+  ZPB across Q2, targeting CHF 6–8B of books with 70% retention
+  assumption. Morgan Sterling's Swiss onshore build-out thesis rests
+  on acquiring a "critical mass" team faster than organic hiring
+  allows. Secondary: position Morgan Sterling as the natural
+  destination for ZPB's Russia-exposed client cluster — which is
+  operationally too risky for ZPB to keep but valuable at a US-wirehouse
+  compliance stack.
+- **Leverage**: Trent is not bound by Swiss labour-court non-compete
+  reach if the RMs individually decline their gardening leave (a
+  tactic pioneered in the 2023 CS-to-UBS episode). Morgan Sterling
+  has budget authority up to USD 180M for guaranteed compensation
+  packages in this build-out.
+
+## Named stakeholders
+
+### Internal leadership
+- **Dr. Pascal Küng** — CEO.
+- **Philippe Renou** — CFO. 48, ex-PwC Zurich partner. 5 years at
+  ZPB. Owns the FINMA capital relationship and the family trust
+  reporting line.
+- **Dr. Stefan Häberli** — Head of Wealth Management (the RMs all
+  report up to him). 57, ex-Pictet, ex-Vontobel. Has personal
+  relationships with ~30 of the top 50 client families. Seen as
+  under-incentivized by the current retention scheme.
+- **Dr. Cornelia Oberholzer** — Chief Investment Officer. 51, ex-LGT.
+  Owns the discretionary-mandate performance story (a rare bright
+  spot — 2024 mandate performance +7.8% vs peer avg +4.2%).
+- **Martin Frei** — General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer.
+  Carries the FINMA, SECO (sanctions), and Eidgenössische
+  Finanzmarktaufsicht relationships. Former FINMA enforcement.
+- **Isabelle Tschudi** — Chief People Officer. Built the current
+  retention/deferred-comp architecture; now under pressure for not
+  matching Morgan Sterling's forward-guarantee offers.
+
+### Board / governance
+- **Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb** — Family trust chair, 81. Honorary board
+  role. Controls 38% of shares through the trust.
+- **Dr. Hans-Rudolf Werner** — Independent board chair; ex-SNB
+  vice-chair.
+- **Beatrice Moretti** — Independent director; ex-Pictet managing
+  partner.
+- **Rolf Gürtler** — Independent director; represents Baloise's 8%.
+
+### Regulators
+- **FINMA** — lead supervisor **Dr. Ursula Vetterli** (Bern). Owns
+  the June 30 capital-floor response deadline.
+- **SECO** — Swiss sanctions regulator; would run any Russia-nexus
+  AUM review.
+- **Swiss Bankers Association (SBA)** — Chair August Benz;
+  industry interlocutor (not regulator). SBA has signalled
+  concern about the "third wave" of post-CS outflows.
+
+### Clients (representative)
+- **Al-Rashid family office (Dubai)** — top-3 client family, CHF 2.8B
+  AUM at ZPB, managed by one of the 4 RMs who resigned February 4.
+- **Helvetia Stiftung** — major Swiss charitable foundation client,
+  CHF 890M AUM, board-level ZPB relationship.
+
+### Media / analysts
+- **NZZ** — Daniel Imwinkelried (banks beat); has the Swiss
+  private-banking franchise read.
+- **Finews.ch** — Claude Baumann (editor); the daily Swiss banking
+  news engine.
+- **Financial Times** — Owen Walker (banking, London) + Sam Jones
+  (Zurich correspondent).
+- **Tages-Anzeiger** — Erich Bürgler (economy).
+- **Bilanz** — Dirk Schütz (editor-in-chief); did the 2023 Küng profile.
+- **Sell-side coverage** — Autonomous (Stefan Stalmann);
+  KBW (Thomas Hallett); ZKB (Michael Kunz).
+
+## Regulatory / operational landscape
+
+- **FINMA Pillar 2 process**: under Art. 45 BankG / FINMA Circular
+  2011/2, FINMA can impose institution-specific capital add-ons
+  where concentration risk, peer-correlation risk, or governance
+  risk is assessed. The bank's formal response must be a credible
+  capital plan or a credible business-model response (or both).
+- **Swiss employment law re. non-competes** (CO Art. 340): Swiss
+  non-compete clauses are enforceable only against a clearly-defined
+  functional and geographic scope and typically for max 12 months;
+  gardening leave obligations can be voluntarily waived by the RM in
+  exchange for forfeiting deferred compensation. Morgan Sterling's
+  lateral offers typically fund the deferred-comp buyout.
+- **Swiss data-protection + bank-client confidentiality**
+  (Art. 47 BankG): each RM is the personal primary contact for
+  client families; cannot take any client data, but can (and does)
+  take the phone number in their head. In Swiss private banking
+  reality, that is the asset.
+- **SECO Russia sanctions (SR 946.231.176.72)**: EU-parallel framework.
+  Reviews of residual Russian-nexus AUM are not per se illegal but
+  trigger obligatory ongoing monitoring reports.
+
+## Time and tempo
+
+- **5 turns**, each turn ≈ 7 days. Total arc: ~5 weeks.
+- FINMA Pillar 2 formal response deadline: **Turn 5 / June 30**
+  (inside the 5-turn arc as a looming regulatory cliff).
+- Swiss Bankers Association annual conference (Küng panel, optional):
+  **Turn 2**.
+- FINMA supervisory dialogue (Bern, mandatory): **Turn 3**.
+- Morgan Sterling expected "second wave" announcement (per press
+  leaks): **Turn 3 or 4**.
+- Family trust AGM: **Turn 5**.
+
+## What is NOT true (agents must not invent)
+
+- ZPB is not under any FINMA enforcement action (supervisory letter
+  only; no investigation).
+- Marcus Trent has not met with any ZPB RM in person (recruitment
+  runs through intermediaries per Swiss practice).
+- Elisabeth Küng-Trüeb has not publicly called for Pascal Küng's
+  replacement; the *Weltwoche* interview is read as a warning, not
+  a dismissal.
+- No Russia-nexus AUM at ZPB is currently sanctioned; the CHF 1.8B
+  figure reflects AUM flagged for enhanced review, not blocked.
+- UBS has not made any approach to acquire ZPB.
+- The Swiss government has not commented on ZPB.
+- Morgan Sterling Private Wealth has not announced any specific team
+  or individual beyond the March 9 hires.

wargame/tests/test_archetypes.py

@@ -24,6 +24,14 @@ ARCHETYPES = [
     "crisis_response",
     "ma_integration",
     "activist_investor",
+    "energy_supply_shock",
+    "signa_contagion",
+    "ev_transition",
+    "russia_exit",
+    "swiss_bank_contagion",
+    "defense_ramp_up",
+    "orf_reform",
+    "hormuz_energy_shock",
 ]