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| {"races": ["2019_German_Grand_Prix", "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix", "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix", "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix", "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix", "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix", "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix", "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix", "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix", "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix", "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix", "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix"], "messages_pooled": 2042, "stress_vs_pace": {"n": 1155, "excluded_non_racing_laps": 286, "pooled_r": 0.0258, "per_driver": [{"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 9, "r": -0.8343}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|LEC", "n": 9, "r": 0.7949}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 9, "r": 0.7816}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 11, "r": 0.6764}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "r": 0.6731}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 9, "r": -0.5778}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 9, "r": -0.5372}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 11, "r": -0.5039}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|STR", "n": 9, "r": -0.4275}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 15, "r": 0.4213}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 8, "r": 0.409}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 8, "r": 0.3844}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 8, "r": 0.3581}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 16, "r": -0.3331}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|LEC", "n": 10, "r": 0.3248}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 9, "r": -0.3237}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "r": -0.3079}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 10, "r": 0.2753}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 9, "r": -0.2721}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 12, "r": -0.2345}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|ZHO", "n": 9, "r": -0.2239}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 9, "r": 0.2229}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 10, "r": 0.1887}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 19, "r": 0.1787}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 23, "r": 0.1643}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 14, "r": -0.1617}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 8, "r": 0.1452}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 10, "r": 0.1426}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 13, "r": -0.1382}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|BOT", "n": 9, "r": -0.1371}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 15, "r": 0.1338}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|LAW", "n": 8, "r": -0.1236}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|SAR", "n": 10, "r": 0.1182}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 16, "r": -0.1166}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 8, "r": 0.0963}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|ALB", "n": 9, "r": -0.0919}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|PIA", "n": 18, "r": 0.0864}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|ALB", "n": 8, "r": -0.083}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "r": -0.0741}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 13, "r": -0.0301}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 14, "r": 0.0269}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 15, "r": 0.012}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 9, "r": 0.0078}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 9, "r": -0.0021}], "tercile": {"drivers": [{"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 11, "calm_mean_delta_s": 4.055, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 15.371, "gap_s": 11.316}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|OCO", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.333, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 11.054, "gap_s": 9.721}, {"driver": "2019_German_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -4.048, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 2.269, "gap_s": 6.317}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 19, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.703, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 8.065, "gap_s": 4.362}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 4.539, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 8.81, "gap_s": 4.271}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.146, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 3.053, "gap_s": 3.2}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.794, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.633, "gap_s": 2.428}, {"driver": "2019_German_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.649, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.456, "gap_s": 2.105}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.45, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.555, "gap_s": 2.005}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|ALB", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.139, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.861, "gap_s": 2.0}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.787, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.923, "gap_s": 1.711}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 2.79, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 4.472, "gap_s": 1.681}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.083, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.492, "gap_s": 1.575}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.041, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.569, "gap_s": 1.528}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.371, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.124, "gap_s": 1.495}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.077, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.16, "gap_s": 1.236}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.164, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.842, "gap_s": 1.005}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 10, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.77, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.132, "gap_s": 0.902}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 15, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.18, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.717, "gap_s": 0.897}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|LEC", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.064, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.729, "gap_s": 0.794}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.048, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.806, "gap_s": 0.758}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.421, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.307, "gap_s": 0.728}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|OCO", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.372, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.094, "gap_s": 0.722}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 10, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.804, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.091, "gap_s": 0.713}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.536, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.165, "gap_s": 0.701}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|SAR", "n": 10, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.074, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.711, "gap_s": 0.636}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.393, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.204, "gap_s": 0.597}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 15, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.538, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.053, "gap_s": 0.591}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.433, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.962, "gap_s": 0.529}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|LEC", "n": 10, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.556, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.143, "gap_s": 0.413}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 10, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.299, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.102, "gap_s": 0.401}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.359, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.007, "gap_s": 0.367}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 15, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.193, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.541, "gap_s": 0.348}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 13, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.597, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.427, "gap_s": 0.17}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.587, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.754, "gap_s": 0.167}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.228, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.386, "gap_s": 0.158}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 14, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.179, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.327, "gap_s": 0.148}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.157, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.087, "gap_s": 0.071}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|ALB", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.278, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.332, "gap_s": 0.054}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.386, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.393, "gap_s": 0.007}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 13, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.393, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.393, "gap_s": 0.001}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 14, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.242, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.262, "gap_s": -0.02}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.225, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.201, "gap_s": -0.024}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.236, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.173, "gap_s": -0.064}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.519, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.667, "gap_s": -0.148}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -1.574, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.736, "gap_s": -0.162}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.407, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.241, "gap_s": -0.166}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.053, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.145, "gap_s": -0.198}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|BOT", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.919, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.128, "gap_s": -0.209}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|PIA", "n": 18, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.496, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.272, "gap_s": -0.224}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 12, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.434, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.17, "gap_s": -0.264}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|ZHO", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.175, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.093, "gap_s": -0.268}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.39, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.084, "gap_s": -0.306}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.071, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.439, "gap_s": -0.368}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|RUS", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.429, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.013, "gap_s": -0.442}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|NOR", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.58, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.047, "gap_s": -0.533}, {"driver": "2023_Mexico_City_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.374, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.168, "gap_s": -0.542}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.003, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.432, "gap_s": -0.57}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.119, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.557, "gap_s": -0.676}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 16, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.516, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.162, "gap_s": -0.679}, {"driver": "2023_Italian_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.292, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.615, "gap_s": -0.907}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|OCO", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.502, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.491, "gap_s": -0.993}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.356, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.707, "gap_s": -1.063}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|HAM", "n": 16, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.082, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.891, "gap_s": -1.191}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|VER", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": -0.188, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.458, "gap_s": -1.27}, {"driver": "2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix|ALB", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 12.582, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 11.298, "gap_s": -1.285}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 23, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.596, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 2.274, "gap_s": -1.322}, {"driver": "2023_Japanese_Grand_Prix|GAS", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.827, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.566, "gap_s": -1.393}, {"driver": "2023_Miami_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.304, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.223, "gap_s": -1.527}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.442, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.16, "gap_s": -1.601}, {"driver": "2023_Spanish_Grand_Prix|LEC", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 0.756, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.856, "gap_s": -2.612}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.806, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.921, "gap_s": -2.727}, {"driver": "2021_Abu_Dhabi_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.743, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.962, "gap_s": -2.781}, {"driver": "2023_United_States_Grand_Prix|STR", "n": 7, "calm_mean_delta_s": 1.837, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.384, "gap_s": -3.221}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|STR", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.738, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -0.706, "gap_s": -4.445}, {"driver": "2023_Qatar_Grand_Prix|LAW", "n": 8, "calm_mean_delta_s": 5.315, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.662, "gap_s": -4.653}, {"driver": "2020_Turkish_Grand_Prix|SAI", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 3.811, "stressed_mean_delta_s": -1.647, "gap_s": -5.458}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|ALO", "n": 9, "calm_mean_delta_s": 9.836, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 4.215, "gap_s": -5.62}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|PER", "n": 6, "calm_mean_delta_s": 10.459, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 1.987, "gap_s": -8.472}, {"driver": "2023_Monaco_Grand_Prix|HUL", "n": 11, "calm_mean_delta_s": 13.987, "stressed_mean_delta_s": 0.726, "gap_s": -13.261}], "mean_gap_s": -0.035, "drivers_slower_when_stressed": 41, "drivers_total": 80, "sign_test_p": 0.9111}}, "lag": {"by_lag": {"lag_0": {"n": 886, "r": 0.0094, "p": 0.7799}, "lag_1": {"n": 114, "r": -0.0021, "p": 0.9823}, "lag_2": {"n": 105, "r": 0.165, "p": 0.0926}, "lag_3": {"n": 99, "r": -0.0545, "p": 0.5921}}, "min_n_for_consideration": 30, "bonferroni_alpha": 0.0125, "underpowered_lags": [], "best_lag": "lag_2", "best_r": 0.165, "best_p": 0.0926, "predictive": false, "caveat": "4 lags are tested and the largest |r| is reported, which is a multiple comparison, so significance is judged at p < 0.0125 (Bonferroni). Lags below n=30 are excluded from selection. A negative r means higher stress preceded faster laps - the opposite of the hypothesis - and never counts as predictive."}, "verdict": "No pooled linear relationship between stress and lap-time loss (r=0.0258). Within drivers, the most-stressed calls sit -0.04s off the calmest ones, with 41/80 drivers slower when stressed - no better than chance (sign test p=0.9111). Stress does not appear to lead pace loss in this corpus.", "caveat": "Driver histories are namespaced per race, so no comparison spans two races. Lap-time delta is measured against each driver's own median within that race. The era confound noted in _corpus_finding.json applies here too."} |