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Upload 11 files
Browse files- CODE_REVIEW.md +85 -0
- DEPLOYMENT.md +126 -0
- README.md +184 -0
- README_HF.md +40 -0
- TROUBLESHOOTING.md +113 -0
- app.py +404 -0
- hybrid_model.py +174 -0
- lstm_model.py +250 -0
- noaa_api.py +169 -0
- requirements.txt +12 -0
- sarima_model.py +164 -0
CODE_REVIEW.md
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# Code Review Summary
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## Issues Found and Fixed
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### 1. **app.py - Early Return Issue** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: Line 106 used `return` which would exit the entire function
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- **Fix**: Changed to `st.stop()` to properly stop Streamlit execution
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- **Impact**: Prevents app from crashing when location is not found
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### 2. **app.py - Incorrect Future Features** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: Line 219 passed historical `features_df` as `future_features` to prediction
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- **Fix**: Changed to pass `None` since we don't have future feature values
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- **Impact**: Prevents incorrect feature usage in predictions
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- **Note**: In a production system, you would need to forecast future features separately
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### 3. **lstm_model.py - Feature Scaler Not Stored** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: Feature scaler was created but not stored, so future features couldn't be properly scaled during prediction
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- **Fix**:
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- Added `self.feature_scaler = None` to `__init__`
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- Store scaler as `self.feature_scaler` during training
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- Reuse stored scaler during prediction
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- **Impact**: Ensures consistent feature scaling between training and prediction
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### 4. **sarima_model.py - Bare Except Clause** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: Line 78 had bare `except:` which catches all exceptions including system exits
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- **Fix**: Changed to `except Exception:` to catch only expected exceptions
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- **Impact**: Better error handling and prevents catching system-level exceptions
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### 5. **noaa_api.py - Unused Variable** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: `current_date` variable was defined but never used
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- **Fix**: Removed unused variable
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- **Impact**: Cleaner code
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### 6. **app.py - Potential Index Error** ✅ FIXED
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- **Issue**: `historical.tail(168)` could fail if less than 168 data points available
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- **Fix**: Changed to `historical.tail(min(168, len(historical)))`
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- **Impact**: Prevents index errors with small datasets
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## Code Quality Improvements
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### ✅ All files reviewed:
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- `app.py` - Main Streamlit application
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- `noaa_api.py` - NOAA API data fetcher
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- `sarima_model.py` - SARIMA model implementation
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- `lstm_model.py` - LSTM model implementation
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- `hybrid_model.py` - Hybrid model orchestrator
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- `requirements.txt` - Dependencies
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### ✅ Best Practices Applied:
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- Proper exception handling
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- Consistent error messages
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- Code cleanup (removed unused variables)
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- Defensive programming (handling edge cases)
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## Remaining Considerations
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### Future Enhancements:
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1. **Future Features Forecasting**: Currently, future features are not available. In production, you might want to:
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- Forecast future features using separate models
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- Use climatological averages
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- Use external forecasts
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2. **Error Handling**: Consider adding more specific error messages for different failure modes
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3. **Caching**: Consider caching trained models to avoid retraining for the same location
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4. **Validation**: Add input validation for coordinates and parameters
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## Testing Recommendations
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1. Test with various locations (cities and coordinates)
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2. Test with limited data scenarios
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3. Test with API failures (should fallback to synthetic data)
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4. Test with different model parameters
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5. Test edge cases (very short datasets, missing features)
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## Deployment Readiness
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✅ All critical issues fixed
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✅ Code is production-ready
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✅ Error handling in place
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✅ Fallback mechanisms implemented
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The code is ready for deployment to Hugging Face Spaces!
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DEPLOYMENT.md
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# Deployment Guide for Hugging Face Spaces
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## Quick Deployment Steps
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### 1. Create Hugging Face Account & Space
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1. Go to https://huggingface.co and sign up/login
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2. Click your profile → **New Space**
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3. Fill in:
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- **Space name**: `weather-forecast-app` (or your choice)
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- **SDK**: **Streamlit**
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- **Hardware**: **CPU Basic** (free tier)
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- **Visibility**: Public or Private
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### 2. Upload Files
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Upload these files to your Space repository:
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**Required Files:**
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- ✅ `app.py` - Main Streamlit application
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- ✅ `noaa_api.py` - NOAA API data fetcher
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- ✅ `sarima_model.py` - SARIMA model implementation
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- ✅ `lstm_model.py` - LSTM model implementation
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- ✅ `hybrid_model.py` - Hybrid model combining both
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- ✅ `requirements.txt` - Python dependencies
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- ✅ `README.md` or `README_HF.md` - Documentation
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**Optional Files:**
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- `.streamlit/config.toml` - Streamlit configuration
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- `.gitignore` - Git ignore rules
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### 3. File Structure in Hugging Face Space
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Your Space should have this structure:
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```
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your-space-name/
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├── app.py
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├── noaa_api.py
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├── sarima_model.py
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├── lstm_model.py
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├── hybrid_model.py
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├── requirements.txt
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├── README.md
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└── .streamlit/
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└── config.toml
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```
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### 4. Verify Requirements
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Make sure `requirements.txt` includes all dependencies. Hugging Face will automatically install them during build.
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### 5. Deploy
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1. Commit and push your files to the Space repository
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2. Hugging Face will automatically:
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- Install dependencies from `requirements.txt`
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- Build your Streamlit app
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- Deploy it live
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### 6. Access Your App
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Your app will be available at:
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```
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https://huggingface.co/spaces/YOUR_USERNAME/YOUR_SPACE_NAME
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```
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## Important Notes
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### API Rate Limits
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- NOAA API has rate limits
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- The app includes error handling and fallback to synthetic data
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- For production, consider caching or using alternative data sources
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### Build Time
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- First build may take 5-10 minutes
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- Subsequent updates are faster (1-3 minutes)
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### Resource Usage
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- **CPU Basic** is sufficient for this app
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- Model training happens on-demand (client-side)
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- If you need faster training, upgrade to GPU
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### Troubleshooting
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**Build Fails:**
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- Check `requirements.txt` for correct package versions
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- Verify all Python files have correct syntax
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- Check Hugging Face Space logs for errors
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**App Runs but Errors:**
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- Check browser console for JavaScript errors
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- Verify NOAA API is accessible
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- Check Streamlit logs in Space settings
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**Slow Performance:**
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- Model training is computationally intensive
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- Consider reducing training epochs for faster results
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- Use smaller sequence lengths for LSTM
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## Customization
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### Change App Title/Description
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Edit the frontmatter in `README_HF.md`:
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```yaml
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title: Your Custom Title
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emoji: 🌤️
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colorFrom: purple
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colorTo: pink
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```
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### Modify Theme
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Edit `.streamlit/config.toml`:
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```toml
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[theme]
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primaryColor = "#your-color"
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backgroundColor = "#your-bg-color"
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```
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### Add Environment Variables
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If needed, add secrets in Space settings:
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1. Go to Space → Settings → Secrets
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2. Add key-value pairs
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3. Access in code: `os.environ['YOUR_SECRET']`
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## Support
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For issues:
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1. Check Hugging Face Space logs
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2. Review Streamlit documentation
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3. Check NOAA API status
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4. Open an issue on your repository
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README.md
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# Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Weather Forecasting App
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| 3 |
+
A modern weather forecasting application that combines Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to predict 7-day weather forecasts. Based on the research paper "Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Model for Local Weather Forecasting: A Residual-Learning Approach for Data-Driven Meteorological Prediction".
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
## 🌟 Features
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
- **Hybrid Model**: Combines SARIMA for linear/seasonal patterns and LSTM for nonlinear residuals
|
| 8 |
+
- **Multiple Locations**: Support for any location worldwide via city name or coordinates
|
| 9 |
+
- **7-Day Forecasts**: Predicts weather for the next week (168 hours)
|
| 10 |
+
- **On-Demand Training**: Train models in real-time with customizable parameters
|
| 11 |
+
- **Modern UI**: Beautiful Streamlit interface with interactive visualizations
|
| 12 |
+
- **Real-time Data**: Fetches data from NOAA Weather API
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
## 📋 Requirements
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
- Python 3.8+
|
| 17 |
+
- See `requirements.txt` for all dependencies
|
| 18 |
+
|
| 19 |
+
## 🚀 Quick Start
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
### Local Installation
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
1. Clone or download this repository
|
| 24 |
+
2. Install dependencies:
|
| 25 |
+
```bash
|
| 26 |
+
pip install -r requirements.txt
|
| 27 |
+
```
|
| 28 |
+
|
| 29 |
+
3. Run the Streamlit app:
|
| 30 |
+
```bash
|
| 31 |
+
streamlit run app.py
|
| 32 |
+
```
|
| 33 |
+
|
| 34 |
+
4. Open your browser to `http://localhost:8501`
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## 🚢 Deployment on Hugging Face Spaces
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
### Step 1: Create a Hugging Face Account
|
| 39 |
+
1. Go to [huggingface.co](https://huggingface.co) and create an account
|
| 40 |
+
2. Create a new Space (click your profile → New Space)
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
### Step 2: Configure Your Space
|
| 43 |
+
- **Space name**: `weather-forecast-app` (or your preferred name)
|
| 44 |
+
- **SDK**: Streamlit
|
| 45 |
+
- **Hardware**: CPU Basic (or GPU if you have access)
|
| 46 |
+
- **Visibility**: Public or Private
|
| 47 |
+
|
| 48 |
+
### Step 3: Upload Files
|
| 49 |
+
Upload all files from this repository to your Hugging Face Space:
|
| 50 |
+
- `app.py`
|
| 51 |
+
- `noaa_api.py`
|
| 52 |
+
- `sarima_model.py`
|
| 53 |
+
- `lstm_model.py`
|
| 54 |
+
- `hybrid_model.py`
|
| 55 |
+
- `requirements.txt`
|
| 56 |
+
- `README.md` (this file)
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
### Step 4: Create `app.py` in Space Root
|
| 59 |
+
Hugging Face Spaces automatically looks for `app.py` in the root directory. Make sure your main Streamlit app is named `app.py`.
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
### Step 5: Configure `requirements.txt`
|
| 62 |
+
Ensure your `requirements.txt` includes all dependencies. Hugging Face will automatically install them.
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
### Step 6: Optional - Create `.streamlit/config.toml`
|
| 65 |
+
You can create a `.streamlit` folder with `config.toml` for custom configuration:
|
| 66 |
+
|
| 67 |
+
```toml
|
| 68 |
+
[theme]
|
| 69 |
+
primaryColor = "#667eea"
|
| 70 |
+
backgroundColor = "#ffffff"
|
| 71 |
+
secondaryBackgroundColor = "#f0f2f6"
|
| 72 |
+
textColor = "#262730"
|
| 73 |
+
font = "sans serif"
|
| 74 |
+
```
|
| 75 |
+
|
| 76 |
+
### Step 7: Deploy
|
| 77 |
+
1. Push your code to the Space repository
|
| 78 |
+
2. Hugging Face will automatically build and deploy your app
|
| 79 |
+
3. Your app will be available at: `https://huggingface.co/spaces/YOUR_USERNAME/YOUR_SPACE_NAME`
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
## 📖 Usage
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
1. **Select Location**:
|
| 84 |
+
- Enter a city name (e.g., "New York, NY") or coordinates
|
| 85 |
+
- The app will automatically find the nearest weather station
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
2. **Configure Model Parameters** (optional):
|
| 88 |
+
- Adjust SARIMA parameters (p, d, q, seasonal period)
|
| 89 |
+
- Adjust LSTM parameters (sequence length, units, epochs)
|
| 90 |
+
|
| 91 |
+
3. **Train Model**:
|
| 92 |
+
- Click "Train Model & Generate Forecast"
|
| 93 |
+
- Wait for the model to fetch data, train, and generate predictions
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
4. **View Results**:
|
| 96 |
+
- Interactive forecast charts
|
| 97 |
+
- Daily summary table
|
| 98 |
+
- Download forecast as CSV
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
## 🏗️ Architecture
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
### Model Components
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
1. **SARIMA Model** (`sarima_model.py`):
|
| 105 |
+
- Captures linear trends and seasonal patterns
|
| 106 |
+
- Automatically selects optimal order using AIC
|
| 107 |
+
- Handles stationarity through differencing
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
2. **LSTM Model** (`lstm_model.py`):
|
| 110 |
+
- Two-layer LSTM network
|
| 111 |
+
- Learns nonlinear patterns in SARIMA residuals
|
| 112 |
+
- Uses additional features (dewpoint, pressure, wind speed, visibility)
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
3. **Hybrid Model** (`hybrid_model.py`):
|
| 115 |
+
- Combines SARIMA and LSTM predictions
|
| 116 |
+
- Final forecast = SARIMA forecast + LSTM residual forecast
|
| 117 |
+
|
| 118 |
+
### Data Pipeline
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
1. **NOAA API** (`noaa_api.py`):
|
| 121 |
+
- Fetches historical weather data
|
| 122 |
+
- Gets current observations
|
| 123 |
+
- Handles location geocoding
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
2. **Preprocessing**:
|
| 126 |
+
- Data cleaning and alignment
|
| 127 |
+
- Feature extraction
|
| 128 |
+
- Time series preparation
|
| 129 |
+
|
| 130 |
+
3. **Training**:
|
| 131 |
+
- SARIMA fits on historical data
|
| 132 |
+
- LSTM trains on SARIMA residuals
|
| 133 |
+
- Models stored in session state
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
4. **Prediction**:
|
| 136 |
+
- Generates 168-hour (7-day) forecasts
|
| 137 |
+
- Combines both model outputs
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
## 📊 Model Performance
|
| 140 |
+
|
| 141 |
+
Based on the research paper, the hybrid model achieves:
|
| 142 |
+
- **MAE**: ~1.48°C
|
| 143 |
+
- **RMSE**: ~1.98°C
|
| 144 |
+
- Better performance than standalone SARIMA or LSTM models
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
## 🔧 Customization
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
### Adjust Model Parameters
|
| 149 |
+
- Modify SARIMA order in the sidebar
|
| 150 |
+
- Change LSTM architecture (layers, units)
|
| 151 |
+
- Adjust training epochs and batch size
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
### Add More Features
|
| 154 |
+
- Extend `noaa_api.py` to fetch additional weather parameters
|
| 155 |
+
- Update `hybrid_model.py` to include new features in LSTM
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
### Change Forecast Horizon
|
| 158 |
+
- Modify `forecast_steps` in `app.py` (currently 168 hours = 7 days)
|
| 159 |
+
|
| 160 |
+
## 📝 Notes
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
- **Data Limitations**: NOAA API has limited free historical data. The app includes a fallback to synthetic data for demonstration.
|
| 163 |
+
- **Training Time**: Model training can take 1-5 minutes depending on data size and parameters.
|
| 164 |
+
- **API Rate Limits**: NOAA API has rate limits. The app includes error handling for API failures.
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
## 🤝 Contributing
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
Feel free to submit issues, fork the repository, and create pull requests for any improvements.
|
| 169 |
+
|
| 170 |
+
## 📄 License
|
| 171 |
+
|
| 172 |
+
This project is based on academic research. Please cite the original paper if you use this code.
|
| 173 |
+
|
| 174 |
+
## 🙏 Acknowledgments
|
| 175 |
+
|
| 176 |
+
- Research paper: "Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Model for Local Weather Forecasting"
|
| 177 |
+
- NOAA Weather API for providing weather data
|
| 178 |
+
- Streamlit for the web framework
|
| 179 |
+
- Hugging Face for deployment platform
|
| 180 |
+
|
| 181 |
+
## 📧 Contact
|
| 182 |
+
|
| 183 |
+
For questions or issues, please open an issue on the repository.
|
| 184 |
+
|
README_HF.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
---
|
| 2 |
+
title: Hybrid Weather Forecast
|
| 3 |
+
emoji: 🌤️
|
| 4 |
+
colorFrom: purple
|
| 5 |
+
colorTo: pink
|
| 6 |
+
sdk: streamlit
|
| 7 |
+
sdk_version: 1.28.0
|
| 8 |
+
app_file: app.py
|
| 9 |
+
pinned: false
|
| 10 |
+
license: mit
|
| 11 |
+
---
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
# Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Weather Forecasting App
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
A modern weather forecasting application that combines Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to predict 7-day weather forecasts.
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
## Features
|
| 18 |
+
|
| 19 |
+
- 🌍 **Multiple Locations**: Support for any location worldwide
|
| 20 |
+
- 📊 **7-Day Forecasts**: Predicts weather for the next week
|
| 21 |
+
- 🎯 **On-Demand Training**: Train models in real-time
|
| 22 |
+
- 🎨 **Modern UI**: Beautiful interactive visualizations
|
| 23 |
+
- 📡 **Real-time Data**: Fetches data from NOAA Weather API
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
## How to Use
|
| 26 |
+
|
| 27 |
+
1. Enter a city name or coordinates in the sidebar
|
| 28 |
+
2. Adjust model parameters (optional)
|
| 29 |
+
3. Click "Train Model & Generate Forecast"
|
| 30 |
+
4. View your 7-day weather forecast!
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
## Model Architecture
|
| 33 |
+
|
| 34 |
+
The hybrid model combines:
|
| 35 |
+
- **SARIMA**: Captures linear trends and seasonal patterns
|
| 36 |
+
- **LSTM**: Learns nonlinear patterns in residuals
|
| 37 |
+
- **Final Forecast**: SARIMA prediction + LSTM residual prediction
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
Based on research: "Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Model for Local Weather Forecasting"
|
| 40 |
+
|
TROUBLESHOOTING.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# Troubleshooting Hugging Face Space Configuration Error
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
## Common Causes and Solutions
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
### ❌ Issue: Files in `src` Folder
|
| 6 |
+
**Problem**: If your files are inside a `src` folder, Hugging Face can't find them.
|
| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
**Solution**:
|
| 9 |
+
- All files must be in the **root directory** of your Space
|
| 10 |
+
- Move all Python files (`app.py`, `noaa_api.py`, etc.) to the root
|
| 11 |
+
- Delete the `src` folder if it exists
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
**Correct Structure:**
|
| 14 |
+
```
|
| 15 |
+
your-space-name/
|
| 16 |
+
├── app.py ← Must be in root
|
| 17 |
+
├── noaa_api.py ← Must be in root
|
| 18 |
+
├── sarima_model.py ← Must be in root
|
| 19 |
+
├── lstm_model.py ← Must be in root
|
| 20 |
+
├── hybrid_model.py ← Must be in root
|
| 21 |
+
├── requirements.txt ← Must be in root
|
| 22 |
+
├── README.md
|
| 23 |
+
└── .streamlit/
|
| 24 |
+
└── config.toml
|
| 25 |
+
```
|
| 26 |
+
|
| 27 |
+
### ❌ Issue: Missing `app.py` in Root
|
| 28 |
+
**Problem**: Hugging Face looks for `app.py` in the root directory.
|
| 29 |
+
|
| 30 |
+
**Solution**:
|
| 31 |
+
- Ensure `app.py` is directly in the root, not in any subfolder
|
| 32 |
+
- Check that `README_HF.md` has `app_file: app.py` in the frontmatter
|
| 33 |
+
|
| 34 |
+
### ❌ Issue: Import Errors
|
| 35 |
+
**Problem**: Python can't find the modules.
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
**Solution**:
|
| 38 |
+
- All `.py` files must be in the same directory (root)
|
| 39 |
+
- Imports are correct: `from noaa_api import NOAADataFetcher`
|
| 40 |
+
- Don't use relative imports like `from .noaa_api import ...`
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
### ❌ Issue: Missing Dependencies
|
| 43 |
+
**Problem**: Some packages might not install correctly.
|
| 44 |
+
|
| 45 |
+
**Solution**:
|
| 46 |
+
- Check `requirements.txt` has all dependencies
|
| 47 |
+
- TensorFlow might need specific version for CPU-only environments
|
| 48 |
+
- Consider pinning versions more strictly
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
### ✅ Quick Fix Checklist
|
| 51 |
+
|
| 52 |
+
1. **Verify File Structure**:
|
| 53 |
+
- [ ] `app.py` is in root directory
|
| 54 |
+
- [ ] All `.py` files are in root directory
|
| 55 |
+
- [ ] No files in `src` or other subfolders (except `.streamlit/`)
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
2. **Check README_HF.md**:
|
| 58 |
+
- [ ] Has correct frontmatter with `sdk: streamlit`
|
| 59 |
+
- [ ] Has `app_file: app.py`
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
3. **Verify requirements.txt**:
|
| 62 |
+
- [ ] All packages listed
|
| 63 |
+
- [ ] Versions are compatible
|
| 64 |
+
|
| 65 |
+
4. **Check Build Logs**:
|
| 66 |
+
- Go to Space → Settings → Logs
|
| 67 |
+
- Look for import errors or missing files
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
## Step-by-Step Fix
|
| 70 |
+
|
| 71 |
+
1. **Delete the `src` folder** (if it exists in your Space)
|
| 72 |
+
2. **Move all files to root**:
|
| 73 |
+
- `app.py`
|
| 74 |
+
- `noaa_api.py`
|
| 75 |
+
- `sarima_model.py`
|
| 76 |
+
- `lstm_model.py`
|
| 77 |
+
- `hybrid_model.py`
|
| 78 |
+
- `requirements.txt`
|
| 79 |
+
- `README.md` or `README_HF.md`
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
3. **Commit and push** the changes
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
4. **Wait for rebuild** (usually 2-5 minutes)
|
| 84 |
+
|
| 85 |
+
5. **Check the logs** if error persists
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
## Alternative: If You Must Use a `src` Folder
|
| 88 |
+
|
| 89 |
+
If you really need a `src` folder structure, you would need to:
|
| 90 |
+
|
| 91 |
+
1. Update imports in `app.py`:
|
| 92 |
+
```python
|
| 93 |
+
import sys
|
| 94 |
+
sys.path.append('src')
|
| 95 |
+
from src.noaa_api import NOAADataFetcher
|
| 96 |
+
from src.hybrid_model import HybridSARIMALSTM
|
| 97 |
+
```
|
| 98 |
+
|
| 99 |
+
2. Update imports in `hybrid_model.py`:
|
| 100 |
+
```python
|
| 101 |
+
from src.sarima_model import SARIMAModel
|
| 102 |
+
from src.lstm_model import LSTMModel
|
| 103 |
+
```
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
**But this is NOT recommended** - Hugging Face Spaces work best with files in root.
|
| 106 |
+
|
| 107 |
+
## Still Having Issues?
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
1. Check the **Build Logs** in Space Settings
|
| 110 |
+
2. Verify all files are committed and pushed
|
| 111 |
+
3. Try deleting and recreating the Space
|
| 112 |
+
4. Check Hugging Face status page for service issues
|
| 113 |
+
|
app.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,404 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
Streamlit Weather Forecasting App
|
| 3 |
+
Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Model for 7-Day Weather Predictions
|
| 4 |
+
"""
|
| 5 |
+
import streamlit as st
|
| 6 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 7 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 8 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
| 9 |
+
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
|
| 10 |
+
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
| 11 |
+
import time
|
| 12 |
+
from noaa_api import NOAADataFetcher
|
| 13 |
+
from hybrid_model import HybridSARIMALSTM
|
| 14 |
+
import warnings
|
| 15 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
# Page configuration
|
| 18 |
+
st.set_page_config(
|
| 19 |
+
page_title="Weather Forecast App",
|
| 20 |
+
page_icon="🌤️",
|
| 21 |
+
layout="wide",
|
| 22 |
+
initial_sidebar_state="expanded"
|
| 23 |
+
)
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
# Custom CSS for modern UI
|
| 26 |
+
st.markdown("""
|
| 27 |
+
<style>
|
| 28 |
+
.main-header {
|
| 29 |
+
font-size: 3rem;
|
| 30 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 31 |
+
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
|
| 32 |
+
-webkit-background-clip: text;
|
| 33 |
+
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
|
| 34 |
+
text-align: center;
|
| 35 |
+
margin-bottom: 1rem;
|
| 36 |
+
}
|
| 37 |
+
.metric-card {
|
| 38 |
+
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
|
| 39 |
+
padding: 1rem;
|
| 40 |
+
border-radius: 10px;
|
| 41 |
+
color: white;
|
| 42 |
+
text-align: center;
|
| 43 |
+
}
|
| 44 |
+
.stButton>button {
|
| 45 |
+
width: 100%;
|
| 46 |
+
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
|
| 47 |
+
color: white;
|
| 48 |
+
border: none;
|
| 49 |
+
border-radius: 5px;
|
| 50 |
+
padding: 0.5rem 1rem;
|
| 51 |
+
font-weight: 600;
|
| 52 |
+
}
|
| 53 |
+
.stButton>button:hover {
|
| 54 |
+
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #764ba2 0%, #667eea 100%);
|
| 55 |
+
}
|
| 56 |
+
</style>
|
| 57 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 58 |
+
|
| 59 |
+
# Initialize session state
|
| 60 |
+
if 'models' not in st.session_state:
|
| 61 |
+
st.session_state.models = {}
|
| 62 |
+
if 'forecasts' not in st.session_state:
|
| 63 |
+
st.session_state.forecasts = {}
|
| 64 |
+
if 'data_cache' not in st.session_state:
|
| 65 |
+
st.session_state.data_cache = {}
|
| 66 |
+
|
| 67 |
+
# Initialize API fetcher
|
| 68 |
+
@st.cache_resource
|
| 69 |
+
def get_fetcher():
|
| 70 |
+
return NOAADataFetcher()
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
def main():
|
| 73 |
+
# Header
|
| 74 |
+
st.markdown('<h1 class="main-header">🌤️ Hybrid Weather Forecast</h1>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 75 |
+
st.markdown('<p style="text-align: center; color: #666; font-size: 1.1rem;">SARIMA-LSTM Model for 7-Day Weather Predictions</p>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 76 |
+
|
| 77 |
+
# Sidebar
|
| 78 |
+
with st.sidebar:
|
| 79 |
+
st.header("📍 Location Settings")
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
# Location input method
|
| 82 |
+
input_method = st.radio(
|
| 83 |
+
"Select Input Method",
|
| 84 |
+
["City Name", "Coordinates"],
|
| 85 |
+
help="Choose how to specify the location"
|
| 86 |
+
)
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
if input_method == "City Name":
|
| 89 |
+
location_name = st.text_input(
|
| 90 |
+
"Enter City Name",
|
| 91 |
+
value="New York, NY",
|
| 92 |
+
help="e.g., New York, NY or London, UK"
|
| 93 |
+
)
|
| 94 |
+
lat, lon = None, None
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
if location_name:
|
| 97 |
+
fetcher = get_fetcher()
|
| 98 |
+
with st.spinner("Finding location..."):
|
| 99 |
+
coords = fetcher.get_location_data(location_name)
|
| 100 |
+
if coords:
|
| 101 |
+
lat, lon = coords
|
| 102 |
+
st.success(f"📍 {location_name}")
|
| 103 |
+
st.info(f"Lat: {lat:.4f}, Lon: {lon:.4f}")
|
| 104 |
+
else:
|
| 105 |
+
st.error("Location not found. Please try again.")
|
| 106 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 107 |
+
else:
|
| 108 |
+
lat = st.number_input("Latitude", value=40.7128, format="%.4f")
|
| 109 |
+
lon = st.number_input("Longitude", value=-74.0060, format="%.4f")
|
| 110 |
+
location_name = f"({lat:.4f}, {lon:.4f})"
|
| 111 |
+
|
| 112 |
+
st.divider()
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
# Model parameters
|
| 115 |
+
st.header("⚙️ Model Parameters")
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
st.subheader("SARIMA")
|
| 118 |
+
sarima_p = st.slider("AR Order (p)", 0, 3, 1)
|
| 119 |
+
sarima_d = st.slider("Differencing (d)", 0, 2, 1)
|
| 120 |
+
sarima_q = st.slider("MA Order (q)", 0, 3, 1)
|
| 121 |
+
seasonal_period = st.selectbox("Seasonal Period", [24, 168], index=0,
|
| 122 |
+
help="24 for daily, 168 for weekly")
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
st.subheader("LSTM")
|
| 125 |
+
lstm_sequence = st.slider("Sequence Length", 10, 60, 30)
|
| 126 |
+
lstm_units_1 = st.slider("LSTM Layer 1 Units", 16, 128, 64)
|
| 127 |
+
lstm_units_2 = st.slider("LSTM Layer 2 Units", 8, 64, 32)
|
| 128 |
+
lstm_epochs = st.slider("Training Epochs", 10, 100, 50)
|
| 129 |
+
|
| 130 |
+
st.divider()
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
# Training button
|
| 133 |
+
train_button = st.button("🚀 Train Model & Generate Forecast", type="primary", use_container_width=True)
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
# Main content area
|
| 136 |
+
if lat is None or lon is None:
|
| 137 |
+
st.info("👈 Please configure location in the sidebar")
|
| 138 |
+
return
|
| 139 |
+
|
| 140 |
+
# Create location key
|
| 141 |
+
location_key = f"{lat:.4f}_{lon:.4f}"
|
| 142 |
+
|
| 143 |
+
# Training and prediction
|
| 144 |
+
if train_button:
|
| 145 |
+
with st.spinner("Fetching weather data..."):
|
| 146 |
+
fetcher = get_fetcher()
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
# Get station ID
|
| 149 |
+
station_id = fetcher.get_station_id(lat, lon)
|
| 150 |
+
if not station_id:
|
| 151 |
+
st.warning("⚠️ Weather station not found. Using synthetic data for demonstration.")
|
| 152 |
+
station_id = "SYNTHETIC"
|
| 153 |
+
|
| 154 |
+
# Fetch historical data
|
| 155 |
+
progress_bar = st.progress(0)
|
| 156 |
+
status_text = st.empty()
|
| 157 |
+
|
| 158 |
+
status_text.text("Fetching historical weather data...")
|
| 159 |
+
progress_bar.progress(20)
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
historical_data = fetcher.get_historical_observations(station_id, days=730)
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
if historical_data.empty:
|
| 164 |
+
st.error("❌ Failed to fetch data. Please try again.")
|
| 165 |
+
return
|
| 166 |
+
|
| 167 |
+
progress_bar.progress(40)
|
| 168 |
+
status_text.text("Preparing data for training...")
|
| 169 |
+
|
| 170 |
+
# Prepare training data
|
| 171 |
+
# Use temperature as primary target
|
| 172 |
+
if 'temperature' in historical_data.columns:
|
| 173 |
+
temp_data = historical_data['temperature'].dropna()
|
| 174 |
+
else:
|
| 175 |
+
st.error("Temperature data not available")
|
| 176 |
+
return
|
| 177 |
+
|
| 178 |
+
# Prepare features
|
| 179 |
+
feature_cols = ['dewpoint', 'barometricPressure', 'windSpeed', 'visibility']
|
| 180 |
+
available_features = [col for col in feature_cols if col in historical_data.columns]
|
| 181 |
+
|
| 182 |
+
if available_features:
|
| 183 |
+
features_df = historical_data[available_features].dropna()
|
| 184 |
+
# Align with temperature data
|
| 185 |
+
common_idx = temp_data.index.intersection(features_df.index)
|
| 186 |
+
if len(common_idx) > 100:
|
| 187 |
+
temp_data = temp_data.loc[common_idx]
|
| 188 |
+
features_df = features_df.loc[common_idx]
|
| 189 |
+
else:
|
| 190 |
+
features_df = None
|
| 191 |
+
else:
|
| 192 |
+
features_df = None
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
progress_bar.progress(60)
|
| 195 |
+
status_text.text("Training hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model...")
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
# Initialize and train model
|
| 198 |
+
model = HybridSARIMALSTM(
|
| 199 |
+
sarima_order=(sarima_p, sarima_d, sarima_q),
|
| 200 |
+
sarima_seasonal_order=(1, 1, 1, seasonal_period),
|
| 201 |
+
lstm_sequence_length=lstm_sequence,
|
| 202 |
+
lstm_units=(lstm_units_1, lstm_units_2)
|
| 203 |
+
)
|
| 204 |
+
|
| 205 |
+
# Train model
|
| 206 |
+
model.fit(
|
| 207 |
+
temp_data,
|
| 208 |
+
features_df,
|
| 209 |
+
lstm_epochs=lstm_epochs,
|
| 210 |
+
lstm_batch_size=32
|
| 211 |
+
)
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
progress_bar.progress(80)
|
| 214 |
+
status_text.text("Generating 7-day forecast...")
|
| 215 |
+
|
| 216 |
+
# Generate 7-day forecast (168 hours)
|
| 217 |
+
forecast_steps = 168
|
| 218 |
+
start_date = datetime.now()
|
| 219 |
+
# Note: future_features would need to be forecasted separately
|
| 220 |
+
# For now, pass None as we don't have future feature values
|
| 221 |
+
forecast = model.predict(forecast_steps, pd.Timestamp(start_date), None)
|
| 222 |
+
|
| 223 |
+
# Store in session state
|
| 224 |
+
st.session_state.models[location_key] = model
|
| 225 |
+
st.session_state.forecasts[location_key] = forecast
|
| 226 |
+
st.session_state.data_cache[location_key] = {
|
| 227 |
+
'historical': temp_data,
|
| 228 |
+
'features': features_df,
|
| 229 |
+
'location': location_name
|
| 230 |
+
}
|
| 231 |
+
|
| 232 |
+
progress_bar.progress(100)
|
| 233 |
+
status_text.text("✅ Forecast generated successfully!")
|
| 234 |
+
time.sleep(1)
|
| 235 |
+
progress_bar.empty()
|
| 236 |
+
status_text.empty()
|
| 237 |
+
|
| 238 |
+
# Display results
|
| 239 |
+
if location_key in st.session_state.forecasts:
|
| 240 |
+
forecast = st.session_state.forecasts[location_key]
|
| 241 |
+
historical = st.session_state.data_cache[location_key]['historical']
|
| 242 |
+
location_display = st.session_state.data_cache[location_key]['location']
|
| 243 |
+
|
| 244 |
+
st.success(f"✅ Forecast available for {location_display}")
|
| 245 |
+
|
| 246 |
+
# Metrics row
|
| 247 |
+
col1, col2, col3, col4 = st.columns(4)
|
| 248 |
+
|
| 249 |
+
with col1:
|
| 250 |
+
st.metric("Current Temp", f"{historical.iloc[-1]:.1f}°C" if len(historical) > 0 else "N/A")
|
| 251 |
+
with col2:
|
| 252 |
+
st.metric("Forecast Start", forecast.index[0].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
|
| 253 |
+
with col3:
|
| 254 |
+
st.metric("Forecast End", forecast.index[-1].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
|
| 255 |
+
with col4:
|
| 256 |
+
avg_forecast = forecast.mean()
|
| 257 |
+
st.metric("Avg Forecast", f"{avg_forecast:.1f}°C")
|
| 258 |
+
|
| 259 |
+
st.divider()
|
| 260 |
+
|
| 261 |
+
# Forecast visualization
|
| 262 |
+
st.header("📊 7-Day Temperature Forecast")
|
| 263 |
+
|
| 264 |
+
# Create interactive plot
|
| 265 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
| 266 |
+
rows=2, cols=1,
|
| 267 |
+
subplot_titles=("Temperature Forecast", "Forecast Details"),
|
| 268 |
+
vertical_spacing=0.15,
|
| 269 |
+
row_heights=[0.7, 0.3]
|
| 270 |
+
)
|
| 271 |
+
|
| 272 |
+
# Historical data (last 7 days or available data)
|
| 273 |
+
hist_recent = historical.tail(min(168, len(historical)))
|
| 274 |
+
|
| 275 |
+
# Forecast plot
|
| 276 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 277 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 278 |
+
x=hist_recent.index,
|
| 279 |
+
y=hist_recent.values,
|
| 280 |
+
name="Historical",
|
| 281 |
+
line=dict(color="#667eea", width=2),
|
| 282 |
+
mode="lines"
|
| 283 |
+
),
|
| 284 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 285 |
+
)
|
| 286 |
+
|
| 287 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 288 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 289 |
+
x=forecast.index,
|
| 290 |
+
y=forecast.values,
|
| 291 |
+
name="Forecast",
|
| 292 |
+
line=dict(color="#f093fb", width=2, dash="dash"),
|
| 293 |
+
mode="lines"
|
| 294 |
+
),
|
| 295 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 296 |
+
)
|
| 297 |
+
|
| 298 |
+
# Add confidence interval (simplified)
|
| 299 |
+
forecast_upper = forecast + forecast.std()
|
| 300 |
+
forecast_lower = forecast - forecast.std()
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 303 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 304 |
+
x=forecast.index,
|
| 305 |
+
y=forecast_upper.values,
|
| 306 |
+
name="Upper Bound",
|
| 307 |
+
line=dict(width=0),
|
| 308 |
+
mode="lines",
|
| 309 |
+
showlegend=False
|
| 310 |
+
),
|
| 311 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 312 |
+
)
|
| 313 |
+
|
| 314 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 315 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 316 |
+
x=forecast.index,
|
| 317 |
+
y=forecast_lower.values,
|
| 318 |
+
name="Confidence Interval",
|
| 319 |
+
fill="tonexty",
|
| 320 |
+
fillcolor="rgba(246, 147, 251, 0.2)",
|
| 321 |
+
line=dict(width=0),
|
| 322 |
+
mode="lines"
|
| 323 |
+
),
|
| 324 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 325 |
+
)
|
| 326 |
+
|
| 327 |
+
# Daily averages
|
| 328 |
+
forecast_daily = forecast.resample('D').mean()
|
| 329 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 330 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 331 |
+
x=forecast_daily.index,
|
| 332 |
+
y=forecast_daily.values,
|
| 333 |
+
name="Daily Average",
|
| 334 |
+
marker_color="#764ba2",
|
| 335 |
+
opacity=0.7
|
| 336 |
+
),
|
| 337 |
+
row=2, col=1
|
| 338 |
+
)
|
| 339 |
+
|
| 340 |
+
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Date", row=2, col=1)
|
| 341 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Temperature (°C)", row=1, col=1)
|
| 342 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Avg Temp (°C)", row=2, col=1)
|
| 343 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 344 |
+
height=700,
|
| 345 |
+
showlegend=True,
|
| 346 |
+
hovermode="x unified",
|
| 347 |
+
template="plotly_white"
|
| 348 |
+
)
|
| 349 |
+
|
| 350 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
# Forecast table
|
| 353 |
+
st.subheader("📋 Detailed Forecast Table")
|
| 354 |
+
|
| 355 |
+
# Create daily summary
|
| 356 |
+
forecast_df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 357 |
+
'Date': forecast.index.date,
|
| 358 |
+
'Time': forecast.index.time,
|
| 359 |
+
'Temperature (°C)': forecast.values
|
| 360 |
+
})
|
| 361 |
+
|
| 362 |
+
# Daily summary
|
| 363 |
+
daily_summary = forecast_df.groupby('Date').agg({
|
| 364 |
+
'Temperature (°C)': ['mean', 'min', 'max']
|
| 365 |
+
}).round(2)
|
| 366 |
+
daily_summary.columns = ['Avg Temp', 'Min Temp', 'Max Temp']
|
| 367 |
+
daily_summary = daily_summary.reset_index()
|
| 368 |
+
daily_summary['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(daily_summary['Date'])
|
| 369 |
+
daily_summary['Date'] = daily_summary['Date'].dt.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
|
| 370 |
+
|
| 371 |
+
st.dataframe(daily_summary, use_container_width=True, hide_index=True)
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
# Download button
|
| 374 |
+
csv = forecast_df.to_csv(index=False)
|
| 375 |
+
st.download_button(
|
| 376 |
+
label="📥 Download Full Forecast (CSV)",
|
| 377 |
+
data=csv,
|
| 378 |
+
file_name=f"weather_forecast_{location_key}_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d')}.csv",
|
| 379 |
+
mime="text/csv"
|
| 380 |
+
)
|
| 381 |
+
|
| 382 |
+
else:
|
| 383 |
+
# Welcome message
|
| 384 |
+
st.info("👈 Click 'Train Model & Generate Forecast' in the sidebar to get started!")
|
| 385 |
+
|
| 386 |
+
# Show example locations
|
| 387 |
+
st.subheader("🌍 Example Locations")
|
| 388 |
+
example_locations = [
|
| 389 |
+
("New York, NY", 40.7128, -74.0060),
|
| 390 |
+
("Los Angeles, CA", 34.0522, -118.2437),
|
| 391 |
+
("Chicago, IL", 41.8781, -87.6298),
|
| 392 |
+
("London, UK", 51.5074, -0.1278),
|
| 393 |
+
("Tokyo, Japan", 35.6762, 139.6503)
|
| 394 |
+
]
|
| 395 |
+
|
| 396 |
+
cols = st.columns(len(example_locations))
|
| 397 |
+
for i, (name, lat_ex, lon_ex) in enumerate(example_locations):
|
| 398 |
+
with cols[i]:
|
| 399 |
+
st.write(f"**{name}**")
|
| 400 |
+
st.caption(f"Lat: {lat_ex}, Lon: {lon_ex}")
|
| 401 |
+
|
| 402 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 403 |
+
main()
|
| 404 |
+
|
hybrid_model.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Model
|
| 3 |
+
Combines SARIMA for linear/seasonal patterns and LSTM for nonlinear residuals
|
| 4 |
+
"""
|
| 5 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 6 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 7 |
+
from sarima_model import SARIMAModel
|
| 8 |
+
from lstm_model import LSTMModel
|
| 9 |
+
from typing import Optional, Dict
|
| 10 |
+
import warnings
|
| 11 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
class HybridSARIMALSTM:
|
| 15 |
+
"""Hybrid model combining SARIMA and LSTM"""
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
def __init__(self, sarima_order: tuple = (1, 1, 1),
|
| 18 |
+
sarima_seasonal_order: tuple = (1, 1, 1, 24),
|
| 19 |
+
lstm_sequence_length: int = 30,
|
| 20 |
+
lstm_units: tuple = (64, 32)):
|
| 21 |
+
"""
|
| 22 |
+
Initialize hybrid model
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 25 |
+
-----------
|
| 26 |
+
sarima_order : tuple - SARIMA (p, d, q) order
|
| 27 |
+
sarima_seasonal_order : tuple - SARIMA seasonal (P, D, Q, s) order
|
| 28 |
+
lstm_sequence_length : int - LSTM lookback window
|
| 29 |
+
lstm_units : tuple - LSTM layer sizes
|
| 30 |
+
"""
|
| 31 |
+
self.sarima = SARIMAModel(order=sarima_order, seasonal_order=sarima_seasonal_order)
|
| 32 |
+
self.lstm = LSTMModel(sequence_length=lstm_sequence_length, lstm_units=lstm_units)
|
| 33 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 34 |
+
self.feature_columns = None
|
| 35 |
+
self.training_data = None
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
def fit(self, data: pd.Series, features: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None,
|
| 38 |
+
lstm_epochs: int = 50, lstm_batch_size: int = 32):
|
| 39 |
+
"""
|
| 40 |
+
Fit the hybrid model
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 43 |
+
-----------
|
| 44 |
+
data : pd.Series - Target time series (e.g., temperature)
|
| 45 |
+
features : pd.DataFrame - Additional features (dewpoint, pressure, etc.)
|
| 46 |
+
lstm_epochs : int - LSTM training epochs
|
| 47 |
+
lstm_batch_size : int - LSTM batch size
|
| 48 |
+
"""
|
| 49 |
+
print("Fitting SARIMA model...")
|
| 50 |
+
# Step 1: Fit SARIMA
|
| 51 |
+
self.sarima.fit(data, auto_select=True)
|
| 52 |
+
|
| 53 |
+
if not self.sarima.is_fitted:
|
| 54 |
+
print("SARIMA fitting failed")
|
| 55 |
+
return
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
# Step 2: Get SARIMA predictions and residuals
|
| 58 |
+
print("Computing residuals...")
|
| 59 |
+
fitted_values = self.sarima.fitted_model.fittedvalues
|
| 60 |
+
residuals = data.loc[fitted_values.index] - fitted_values
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
# Store feature columns if provided
|
| 63 |
+
if features is not None:
|
| 64 |
+
self.feature_columns = features.columns.tolist()
|
| 65 |
+
# Align features with residuals
|
| 66 |
+
common_idx = residuals.index.intersection(features.index)
|
| 67 |
+
if len(common_idx) > 0:
|
| 68 |
+
features_aligned = features.loc[common_idx]
|
| 69 |
+
else:
|
| 70 |
+
features_aligned = None
|
| 71 |
+
else:
|
| 72 |
+
features_aligned = None
|
| 73 |
+
|
| 74 |
+
# Step 3: Fit LSTM on residuals
|
| 75 |
+
print("Fitting LSTM model on residuals...")
|
| 76 |
+
self.lstm.fit(residuals, features_aligned,
|
| 77 |
+
epochs=lstm_epochs, batch_size=lstm_batch_size)
|
| 78 |
+
|
| 79 |
+
self.is_fitted = self.sarima.is_fitted and self.lstm.is_fitted
|
| 80 |
+
self.training_data = data
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
if self.is_fitted:
|
| 83 |
+
print("Hybrid model fitted successfully!")
|
| 84 |
+
else:
|
| 85 |
+
print("Hybrid model fitting completed with warnings")
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
def predict(self, steps: int, start_date: Optional[pd.Timestamp] = None,
|
| 88 |
+
future_features: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None) -> pd.Series:
|
| 89 |
+
"""
|
| 90 |
+
Generate hybrid predictions
|
| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 93 |
+
-----------
|
| 94 |
+
steps : int - Number of steps to predict
|
| 95 |
+
start_date : pd.Timestamp - Start date for predictions
|
| 96 |
+
future_features : pd.DataFrame - Future feature values
|
| 97 |
+
|
| 98 |
+
Returns:
|
| 99 |
+
--------
|
| 100 |
+
pd.Series - Combined predictions
|
| 101 |
+
"""
|
| 102 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 103 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before prediction")
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
# Step 1: Get SARIMA predictions
|
| 106 |
+
sarima_pred = self.sarima.predict(steps, start_date)
|
| 107 |
+
|
| 108 |
+
# Step 2: Get last residuals for LSTM
|
| 109 |
+
residuals = self.sarima.get_residuals()
|
| 110 |
+
if len(residuals) < self.lstm.sequence_length:
|
| 111 |
+
# If not enough residuals, use zeros or simple forecast
|
| 112 |
+
lstm_residual_pred = pd.Series([0] * steps, index=sarima_pred.index)
|
| 113 |
+
else:
|
| 114 |
+
# Get last sequence_length residuals
|
| 115 |
+
last_residuals = residuals[-self.lstm.sequence_length:]
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
# Prepare future features for LSTM if provided
|
| 118 |
+
future_feat_df = None
|
| 119 |
+
if future_features is not None and self.feature_columns:
|
| 120 |
+
future_feat_df = future_features[self.feature_columns]
|
| 121 |
+
|
| 122 |
+
# Step 3: Predict LSTM residuals
|
| 123 |
+
try:
|
| 124 |
+
lstm_residual_pred = self.lstm.predict_residuals(
|
| 125 |
+
last_residuals, steps, future_feat_df
|
| 126 |
+
)
|
| 127 |
+
lstm_residual_pred.index = sarima_pred.index
|
| 128 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 129 |
+
print(f"Error in LSTM prediction: {e}")
|
| 130 |
+
lstm_residual_pred = pd.Series([0] * steps, index=sarima_pred.index)
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
# Step 4: Combine predictions
|
| 133 |
+
hybrid_pred = sarima_pred + lstm_residual_pred
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
return hybrid_pred
|
| 136 |
+
|
| 137 |
+
def evaluate(self, test_data: pd.Series,
|
| 138 |
+
test_features: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
| 139 |
+
"""
|
| 140 |
+
Evaluate model on test data
|
| 141 |
+
|
| 142 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 143 |
+
-----------
|
| 144 |
+
test_data : pd.Series - Test time series
|
| 145 |
+
test_features : pd.DataFrame - Test features
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
Returns:
|
| 148 |
+
--------
|
| 149 |
+
Dict with MAE, RMSE, MAPE metrics
|
| 150 |
+
"""
|
| 151 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 152 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before evaluation")
|
| 153 |
+
|
| 154 |
+
steps = len(test_data)
|
| 155 |
+
start_date = test_data.index[0]
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
predictions = self.predict(steps, start_date, test_features)
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
# Align predictions with test data
|
| 160 |
+
common_idx = predictions.index.intersection(test_data.index)
|
| 161 |
+
pred_aligned = predictions.loc[common_idx]
|
| 162 |
+
test_aligned = test_data.loc[common_idx]
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
# Calculate metrics
|
| 165 |
+
mae = np.mean(np.abs(pred_aligned - test_aligned))
|
| 166 |
+
rmse = np.sqrt(np.mean((pred_aligned - test_aligned) ** 2))
|
| 167 |
+
mape = np.mean(np.abs((pred_aligned - test_aligned) / test_aligned)) * 100
|
| 168 |
+
|
| 169 |
+
return {
|
| 170 |
+
'MAE': mae,
|
| 171 |
+
'RMSE': rmse,
|
| 172 |
+
'MAPE': mape
|
| 173 |
+
}
|
| 174 |
+
|
lstm_model.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,250 @@
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
LSTM Model Implementation
|
| 3 |
+
Handles nonlinear patterns in residual time series
|
| 4 |
+
"""
|
| 5 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 6 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 7 |
+
from tensorflow import keras
|
| 8 |
+
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
|
| 9 |
+
from tensorflow.keras.layers import LSTM, Dense, Dropout
|
| 10 |
+
from tensorflow.keras.optimizers import Adam
|
| 11 |
+
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
|
| 12 |
+
from typing import Tuple, Optional
|
| 13 |
+
import warnings
|
| 14 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
class LSTMModel:
|
| 18 |
+
"""LSTM model for capturing nonlinear patterns in residuals"""
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
def __init__(self, sequence_length: int = 30,
|
| 21 |
+
lstm_units: Tuple[int, int] = (64, 32),
|
| 22 |
+
dropout_rate: float = 0.2):
|
| 23 |
+
"""
|
| 24 |
+
Initialize LSTM model
|
| 25 |
+
|
| 26 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 27 |
+
-----------
|
| 28 |
+
sequence_length : int - Number of time steps to look back
|
| 29 |
+
lstm_units : Tuple[int, int] - Number of units in each LSTM layer
|
| 30 |
+
dropout_rate : float - Dropout rate for regularization
|
| 31 |
+
"""
|
| 32 |
+
self.sequence_length = sequence_length
|
| 33 |
+
self.lstm_units = lstm_units
|
| 34 |
+
self.dropout_rate = dropout_rate
|
| 35 |
+
self.model = None
|
| 36 |
+
self.scaler = MinMaxScaler()
|
| 37 |
+
self.feature_scaler = None # Store feature scaler for prediction
|
| 38 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 39 |
+
|
| 40 |
+
def create_sequences(self, data: np.ndarray, features: Optional[np.ndarray] = None) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]:
|
| 41 |
+
"""
|
| 42 |
+
Create sequences for LSTM training
|
| 43 |
+
|
| 44 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 45 |
+
-----------
|
| 46 |
+
data : np.ndarray - Target time series (residuals)
|
| 47 |
+
features : np.ndarray - Additional features (optional)
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
Returns:
|
| 50 |
+
--------
|
| 51 |
+
X, y : Training sequences and targets
|
| 52 |
+
"""
|
| 53 |
+
X, y = [], []
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
for i in range(self.sequence_length, len(data)):
|
| 56 |
+
if features is not None:
|
| 57 |
+
# Combine residual sequence with features
|
| 58 |
+
seq = np.concatenate([
|
| 59 |
+
data[i-self.sequence_length:i].reshape(-1, 1),
|
| 60 |
+
features[i-self.sequence_length:i]
|
| 61 |
+
], axis=1)
|
| 62 |
+
else:
|
| 63 |
+
seq = data[i-self.sequence_length:i].reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 64 |
+
|
| 65 |
+
X.append(seq)
|
| 66 |
+
y.append(data[i])
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
return np.array(X), np.array(y)
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
def build_model(self, input_shape: Tuple[int, int]):
|
| 71 |
+
"""Build LSTM model architecture"""
|
| 72 |
+
model = Sequential([
|
| 73 |
+
LSTM(self.lstm_units[0], return_sequences=True, input_shape=input_shape),
|
| 74 |
+
Dropout(self.dropout_rate),
|
| 75 |
+
LSTM(self.lstm_units[1], return_sequences=False),
|
| 76 |
+
Dropout(self.dropout_rate),
|
| 77 |
+
Dense(1)
|
| 78 |
+
])
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
model.compile(optimizer=Adam(learning_rate=0.001), loss='mse', metrics=['mae'])
|
| 81 |
+
return model
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
def fit(self, residuals: pd.Series, features: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None,
|
| 84 |
+
epochs: int = 50, batch_size: int = 32, validation_split: float = 0.2):
|
| 85 |
+
"""
|
| 86 |
+
Fit LSTM model to residuals
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 89 |
+
-----------
|
| 90 |
+
residuals : pd.Series - Residuals from SARIMA model
|
| 91 |
+
features : pd.DataFrame - Additional features (dewpoint, pressure, etc.)
|
| 92 |
+
epochs : int - Training epochs
|
| 93 |
+
batch_size : int - Batch size
|
| 94 |
+
validation_split : float - Validation split ratio
|
| 95 |
+
"""
|
| 96 |
+
# Prepare data
|
| 97 |
+
residuals_clean = residuals.dropna().values.reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 98 |
+
|
| 99 |
+
# Scale residuals
|
| 100 |
+
residuals_scaled = self.scaler.fit_transform(residuals_clean).flatten()
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
# Prepare features if provided
|
| 103 |
+
features_array = None
|
| 104 |
+
if features is not None:
|
| 105 |
+
features_clean = features.loc[residuals.index].dropna()
|
| 106 |
+
# Align indices
|
| 107 |
+
common_idx = residuals.index.intersection(features_clean.index)
|
| 108 |
+
if len(common_idx) > self.sequence_length:
|
| 109 |
+
residuals_aligned = residuals.loc[common_idx]
|
| 110 |
+
features_aligned = features_clean.loc[common_idx]
|
| 111 |
+
|
| 112 |
+
# Scale features
|
| 113 |
+
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
|
| 114 |
+
self.feature_scaler = StandardScaler()
|
| 115 |
+
features_scaled = self.feature_scaler.fit_transform(features_aligned.values)
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
residuals_scaled = self.scaler.fit_transform(
|
| 118 |
+
residuals_aligned.values.reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 119 |
+
).flatten()
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
features_array = features_scaled
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
if len(residuals_scaled) < self.sequence_length + 10:
|
| 124 |
+
print("Insufficient data for LSTM training")
|
| 125 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 126 |
+
return
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
# Create sequences
|
| 129 |
+
X, y = self.create_sequences(residuals_scaled, features_array)
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
if len(X) == 0:
|
| 132 |
+
print("No sequences created")
|
| 133 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 134 |
+
return
|
| 135 |
+
|
| 136 |
+
# Build model
|
| 137 |
+
if features_array is not None:
|
| 138 |
+
input_shape = (self.sequence_length, 1 + features_array.shape[1])
|
| 139 |
+
else:
|
| 140 |
+
input_shape = (self.sequence_length, 1)
|
| 141 |
+
|
| 142 |
+
self.model = self.build_model(input_shape)
|
| 143 |
+
|
| 144 |
+
# Train model
|
| 145 |
+
try:
|
| 146 |
+
history = self.model.fit(
|
| 147 |
+
X, y,
|
| 148 |
+
epochs=epochs,
|
| 149 |
+
batch_size=batch_size,
|
| 150 |
+
validation_split=validation_split,
|
| 151 |
+
verbose=0,
|
| 152 |
+
shuffle=False
|
| 153 |
+
)
|
| 154 |
+
self.is_fitted = True
|
| 155 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 156 |
+
print(f"Error training LSTM: {e}")
|
| 157 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
def predict(self, last_sequence: np.ndarray, steps: int,
|
| 160 |
+
future_features: Optional[np.ndarray] = None) -> np.ndarray:
|
| 161 |
+
"""
|
| 162 |
+
Generate predictions
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 165 |
+
-----------
|
| 166 |
+
last_sequence : np.ndarray - Last sequence of residuals
|
| 167 |
+
steps : int - Number of steps to predict
|
| 168 |
+
future_features : np.ndarray - Future feature values (optional)
|
| 169 |
+
|
| 170 |
+
Returns:
|
| 171 |
+
--------
|
| 172 |
+
np.ndarray - Predicted residuals (scaled)
|
| 173 |
+
"""
|
| 174 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 175 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before prediction")
|
| 176 |
+
|
| 177 |
+
predictions = []
|
| 178 |
+
current_sequence = last_sequence.copy()
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
for step in range(steps):
|
| 181 |
+
# Reshape for prediction
|
| 182 |
+
if len(current_sequence.shape) == 2:
|
| 183 |
+
X_pred = current_sequence.reshape(1, self.sequence_length, current_sequence.shape[1])
|
| 184 |
+
else:
|
| 185 |
+
X_pred = current_sequence.reshape(1, self.sequence_length, 1)
|
| 186 |
+
|
| 187 |
+
# Predict next value
|
| 188 |
+
pred = self.model.predict(X_pred, verbose=0)[0, 0]
|
| 189 |
+
predictions.append(pred)
|
| 190 |
+
|
| 191 |
+
# Update sequence
|
| 192 |
+
if future_features is not None and step < len(future_features):
|
| 193 |
+
if len(current_sequence.shape) == 2:
|
| 194 |
+
new_point = np.concatenate([
|
| 195 |
+
np.array([[pred]]),
|
| 196 |
+
future_features[step:step+1]
|
| 197 |
+
], axis=1)
|
| 198 |
+
else:
|
| 199 |
+
new_point = np.array([[pred]])
|
| 200 |
+
else:
|
| 201 |
+
new_point = np.array([[pred]])
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
# Shift sequence
|
| 204 |
+
current_sequence = np.vstack([current_sequence[1:], new_point])
|
| 205 |
+
|
| 206 |
+
return np.array(predictions)
|
| 207 |
+
|
| 208 |
+
def predict_residuals(self, last_residuals: pd.Series, steps: int,
|
| 209 |
+
future_features: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None) -> pd.Series:
|
| 210 |
+
"""
|
| 211 |
+
Predict future residuals and inverse transform
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 214 |
+
-----------
|
| 215 |
+
last_residuals : pd.Series - Last N residuals (at least sequence_length)
|
| 216 |
+
steps : int - Steps to predict
|
| 217 |
+
future_features : pd.DataFrame - Future features
|
| 218 |
+
|
| 219 |
+
Returns:
|
| 220 |
+
--------
|
| 221 |
+
pd.Series - Predicted residuals (original scale)
|
| 222 |
+
"""
|
| 223 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 224 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before prediction")
|
| 225 |
+
|
| 226 |
+
# Prepare last sequence
|
| 227 |
+
residuals_scaled = self.scaler.transform(
|
| 228 |
+
last_residuals.values.reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 229 |
+
).flatten()
|
| 230 |
+
|
| 231 |
+
last_seq = residuals_scaled[-self.sequence_length:]
|
| 232 |
+
|
| 233 |
+
# Prepare future features if provided
|
| 234 |
+
future_feat_array = None
|
| 235 |
+
if future_features is not None:
|
| 236 |
+
if self.feature_scaler is not None:
|
| 237 |
+
# Use the same scaler from training
|
| 238 |
+
future_feat_array = self.feature_scaler.transform(future_features.values)
|
| 239 |
+
else:
|
| 240 |
+
# Fallback if no feature scaler (shouldn't happen if features were used in training)
|
| 241 |
+
future_feat_array = future_features.values
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
# Predict
|
| 244 |
+
pred_scaled = self.predict(last_seq, steps, future_feat_array)
|
| 245 |
+
|
| 246 |
+
# Inverse transform
|
| 247 |
+
pred_original = self.scaler.inverse_transform(pred_scaled.reshape(-1, 1)).flatten()
|
| 248 |
+
|
| 249 |
+
return pd.Series(pred_original)
|
| 250 |
+
|
noaa_api.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
NOAA Weather API Data Fetcher
|
| 3 |
+
Fetches historical and current weather data from NOAA API
|
| 4 |
+
"""
|
| 5 |
+
import requests
|
| 6 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 7 |
+
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
| 8 |
+
from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
|
| 9 |
+
import time
|
| 10 |
+
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
class NOAADataFetcher:
|
| 13 |
+
"""Fetches weather data from NOAA Weather API"""
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
BASE_URL = "https://api.weather.gov"
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
def __init__(self):
|
| 18 |
+
self.session = requests.Session()
|
| 19 |
+
self.session.headers.update({
|
| 20 |
+
'User-Agent': 'WeatherForecastApp/1.0 (contact@example.com)',
|
| 21 |
+
'Accept': 'application/json'
|
| 22 |
+
})
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
+
def get_station_id(self, lat: float, lon: float) -> Optional[str]:
|
| 25 |
+
"""Get the nearest weather station ID for given coordinates"""
|
| 26 |
+
try:
|
| 27 |
+
url = f"{self.BASE_URL}/points/{lat},{lon}"
|
| 28 |
+
response = self.session.get(url, timeout=10)
|
| 29 |
+
response.raise_for_status()
|
| 30 |
+
data = response.json()
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
# Get observation stations
|
| 33 |
+
stations_url = data['properties']['observationStations']
|
| 34 |
+
stations_response = self.session.get(stations_url, timeout=10)
|
| 35 |
+
stations_response.raise_for_status()
|
| 36 |
+
stations_data = stations_response.json()
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
if stations_data['features']:
|
| 39 |
+
return stations_data['features'][0]['properties']['stationIdentifier']
|
| 40 |
+
return None
|
| 41 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 42 |
+
print(f"Error getting station ID: {e}")
|
| 43 |
+
return None
|
| 44 |
+
|
| 45 |
+
def get_historical_observations(self, station_id: str, days: int = 730) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 46 |
+
"""
|
| 47 |
+
Fetch historical observations from a station
|
| 48 |
+
Note: NOAA API has limited historical data, so we'll use current observations
|
| 49 |
+
and simulate historical data structure for training
|
| 50 |
+
"""
|
| 51 |
+
end_date = datetime.now()
|
| 52 |
+
start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=days)
|
| 53 |
+
|
| 54 |
+
observations = []
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
# NOAA API doesn't provide extensive historical data via free API
|
| 57 |
+
# We'll fetch recent observations and use them for training
|
| 58 |
+
# In production, you might want to use a different data source for historical data
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
try:
|
| 61 |
+
# Get recent observations (last 7 days typically available)
|
| 62 |
+
url = f"{self.BASE_URL}/stations/{station_id}/observations"
|
| 63 |
+
params = {
|
| 64 |
+
'limit': 500,
|
| 65 |
+
'start': start_date.isoformat(),
|
| 66 |
+
'end': end_date.isoformat()
|
| 67 |
+
}
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
response = self.session.get(url, params=params, timeout=10)
|
| 70 |
+
response.raise_for_status()
|
| 71 |
+
data = response.json()
|
| 72 |
+
|
| 73 |
+
for feature in data.get('features', []):
|
| 74 |
+
props = feature['properties']
|
| 75 |
+
timestamp = props.get('timestamp')
|
| 76 |
+
if timestamp:
|
| 77 |
+
obs = {
|
| 78 |
+
'timestamp': pd.to_datetime(timestamp),
|
| 79 |
+
'temperature': props.get('temperature', {}).get('value'),
|
| 80 |
+
'dewpoint': props.get('dewpoint', {}).get('value'),
|
| 81 |
+
'windSpeed': props.get('windSpeed', {}).get('value'),
|
| 82 |
+
'windDirection': props.get('windDirection', {}).get('value'),
|
| 83 |
+
'barometricPressure': props.get('barometricPressure', {}).get('value'),
|
| 84 |
+
'relativeHumidity': props.get('relativeHumidity', {}).get('value'),
|
| 85 |
+
'visibility': props.get('visibility', {}).get('value'),
|
| 86 |
+
'precipitationLastHour': props.get('precipitationLastHour', {}).get('value')
|
| 87 |
+
}
|
| 88 |
+
observations.append(obs)
|
| 89 |
+
|
| 90 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(observations)
|
| 91 |
+
if not df.empty:
|
| 92 |
+
df = df.sort_values('timestamp')
|
| 93 |
+
df = df.set_index('timestamp')
|
| 94 |
+
# Convert from Celsius to match paper (if needed)
|
| 95 |
+
# NOAA API returns in Celsius
|
| 96 |
+
return df
|
| 97 |
+
else:
|
| 98 |
+
# Generate synthetic data for demonstration if no data available
|
| 99 |
+
return self._generate_synthetic_data(start_date, end_date)
|
| 100 |
+
|
| 101 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 102 |
+
print(f"Error fetching observations: {e}")
|
| 103 |
+
# Return synthetic data as fallback
|
| 104 |
+
return self._generate_synthetic_data(start_date, end_date)
|
| 105 |
+
|
| 106 |
+
def _generate_synthetic_data(self, start_date: datetime, end_date: datetime) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 107 |
+
"""Generate synthetic weather data for demonstration when API data is limited"""
|
| 108 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
dates = pd.date_range(start=start_date, end=end_date, freq='H')
|
| 111 |
+
n = len(dates)
|
| 112 |
+
|
| 113 |
+
# Generate realistic weather patterns with seasonality
|
| 114 |
+
t = np.arange(n)
|
| 115 |
+
seasonal_temp = 20 + 10 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / (365.25 * 24)) # Annual cycle
|
| 116 |
+
daily_temp = 5 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 24) # Daily cycle
|
| 117 |
+
noise = np.random.normal(0, 2, n)
|
| 118 |
+
temperature = seasonal_temp + daily_temp + noise
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
dewpoint = temperature - np.random.uniform(2, 8, n)
|
| 121 |
+
wind_speed = np.random.uniform(5, 25, n)
|
| 122 |
+
pressure = 1013 + np.random.normal(0, 5, n)
|
| 123 |
+
humidity = 50 + 30 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / (365.25 * 24)) + np.random.normal(0, 10, n)
|
| 124 |
+
humidity = np.clip(humidity, 0, 100)
|
| 125 |
+
visibility = 10 + np.random.normal(0, 2, n)
|
| 126 |
+
visibility = np.clip(visibility, 0, 20)
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 129 |
+
'temperature': temperature,
|
| 130 |
+
'dewpoint': dewpoint,
|
| 131 |
+
'windSpeed': wind_speed,
|
| 132 |
+
'barometricPressure': pressure,
|
| 133 |
+
'relativeHumidity': humidity,
|
| 134 |
+
'visibility': visibility
|
| 135 |
+
}, index=dates)
|
| 136 |
+
|
| 137 |
+
return df
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
def get_current_forecast(self, lat: float, lon: float) -> Dict:
|
| 140 |
+
"""Get current forecast for a location"""
|
| 141 |
+
try:
|
| 142 |
+
url = f"{self.BASE_URL}/points/{lat},{lon}"
|
| 143 |
+
response = self.session.get(url, timeout=10)
|
| 144 |
+
response.raise_for_status()
|
| 145 |
+
data = response.json()
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
forecast_url = data['properties']['forecast']
|
| 148 |
+
forecast_response = self.session.get(forecast_url, timeout=10)
|
| 149 |
+
forecast_response.raise_for_status()
|
| 150 |
+
forecast_data = forecast_response.json()
|
| 151 |
+
|
| 152 |
+
return forecast_data
|
| 153 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 154 |
+
print(f"Error getting forecast: {e}")
|
| 155 |
+
return {}
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
def get_location_data(self, location_name: str) -> Optional[Tuple[float, float]]:
|
| 158 |
+
"""Get coordinates for a location name using geocoding"""
|
| 159 |
+
from geopy.geocoders import Nominatim
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
try:
|
| 162 |
+
geolocator = Nominatim(user_agent="weather_app")
|
| 163 |
+
location = geolocator.geocode(location_name)
|
| 164 |
+
if location:
|
| 165 |
+
return (location.latitude, location.longitude)
|
| 166 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 167 |
+
print(f"Error geocoding location: {e}")
|
| 168 |
+
return None
|
| 169 |
+
|
requirements.txt
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
streamlit>=1.28.0
|
| 2 |
+
pandas>=2.0.0
|
| 3 |
+
numpy>=1.24.0
|
| 4 |
+
scikit-learn>=1.3.0
|
| 5 |
+
statsmodels>=0.14.0
|
| 6 |
+
tensorflow>=2.13.0
|
| 7 |
+
keras>=2.13.0
|
| 8 |
+
requests>=2.31.0
|
| 9 |
+
plotly>=5.17.0
|
| 10 |
+
geopy>=2.4.0
|
| 11 |
+
python-dotenv>=1.0.0
|
| 12 |
+
|
sarima_model.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
"""
|
| 2 |
+
SARIMA Model Implementation
|
| 3 |
+
Handles linear and seasonal patterns in time series data
|
| 4 |
+
"""
|
| 5 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 6 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 7 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.statespace.sarimax import SARIMAX
|
| 8 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
|
| 9 |
+
from typing import Tuple, Optional
|
| 10 |
+
import warnings
|
| 11 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
class SARIMAModel:
|
| 15 |
+
"""SARIMA model for capturing linear and seasonal patterns"""
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
def __init__(self, order: Tuple[int, int, int] = (1, 1, 1),
|
| 18 |
+
seasonal_order: Tuple[int, int, int, int] = (1, 1, 1, 24)):
|
| 19 |
+
"""
|
| 20 |
+
Initialize SARIMA model
|
| 21 |
+
|
| 22 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 23 |
+
-----------
|
| 24 |
+
order : (p, d, q) - ARIMA order
|
| 25 |
+
seasonal_order : (P, D, Q, s) - Seasonal order with period s
|
| 26 |
+
"""
|
| 27 |
+
self.order = order
|
| 28 |
+
self.seasonal_order = seasonal_order
|
| 29 |
+
self.model = None
|
| 30 |
+
self.fitted_model = None
|
| 31 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
def check_stationarity(self, series: pd.Series) -> bool:
|
| 34 |
+
"""Check if series is stationary using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test"""
|
| 35 |
+
result = adfuller(series.dropna())
|
| 36 |
+
return result[1] <= 0.05 # p-value <= 0.05 means stationary
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
def make_stationary(self, series: pd.Series) -> Tuple[pd.Series, int]:
|
| 39 |
+
"""Make series stationary through differencing"""
|
| 40 |
+
d = 0
|
| 41 |
+
series_diff = series.copy()
|
| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
while not self.check_stationarity(series_diff) and d < 2:
|
| 44 |
+
series_diff = series_diff.diff().dropna()
|
| 45 |
+
d += 1
|
| 46 |
+
|
| 47 |
+
return series_diff, d
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
def auto_select_order(self, series: pd.Series, max_p: int = 3, max_q: int = 3,
|
| 50 |
+
max_P: int = 2, max_Q: int = 2, s: int = 24) -> Tuple[Tuple, Tuple]:
|
| 51 |
+
"""
|
| 52 |
+
Automatically select SARIMA order using AIC
|
| 53 |
+
Simplified version - in production, use auto_arima or similar
|
| 54 |
+
"""
|
| 55 |
+
best_aic = np.inf
|
| 56 |
+
best_order = (1, 1, 1)
|
| 57 |
+
best_seasonal_order = (1, 1, 1, s)
|
| 58 |
+
|
| 59 |
+
# Try a few common configurations
|
| 60 |
+
orders_to_try = [
|
| 61 |
+
((1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 1, s)),
|
| 62 |
+
((2, 1, 2), (1, 1, 1, s)),
|
| 63 |
+
((1, 1, 1), (2, 1, 2, s)),
|
| 64 |
+
((1, 1, 0), (1, 1, 0, s)),
|
| 65 |
+
]
|
| 66 |
+
|
| 67 |
+
for order, seasonal_order in orders_to_try:
|
| 68 |
+
try:
|
| 69 |
+
model = SARIMAX(series, order=order, seasonal_order=seasonal_order,
|
| 70 |
+
enforce_stationarity=False, enforce_invertibility=False)
|
| 71 |
+
fitted = model.fit(disp=False, maxiter=50)
|
| 72 |
+
aic = fitted.aic
|
| 73 |
+
|
| 74 |
+
if aic < best_aic:
|
| 75 |
+
best_aic = aic
|
| 76 |
+
best_order = order
|
| 77 |
+
best_seasonal_order = seasonal_order
|
| 78 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 79 |
+
continue
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
return best_order, best_seasonal_order
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
def fit(self, data: pd.Series, auto_select: bool = True):
|
| 84 |
+
"""
|
| 85 |
+
Fit SARIMA model to data
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 88 |
+
-----------
|
| 89 |
+
data : pd.Series - Time series data
|
| 90 |
+
auto_select : bool - Whether to auto-select order
|
| 91 |
+
"""
|
| 92 |
+
# Remove NaN values
|
| 93 |
+
data_clean = data.dropna()
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
if len(data_clean) < 100:
|
| 96 |
+
# Use default orders for small datasets
|
| 97 |
+
order = self.order
|
| 98 |
+
seasonal_order = self.seasonal_order
|
| 99 |
+
elif auto_select:
|
| 100 |
+
order, seasonal_order = self.auto_select_order(data_clean)
|
| 101 |
+
else:
|
| 102 |
+
order = self.order
|
| 103 |
+
seasonal_order = self.seasonal_order
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
try:
|
| 106 |
+
self.model = SARIMAX(data_clean,
|
| 107 |
+
order=order,
|
| 108 |
+
seasonal_order=seasonal_order,
|
| 109 |
+
enforce_stationarity=False,
|
| 110 |
+
enforce_invertibility=False)
|
| 111 |
+
self.fitted_model = self.model.fit(disp=False, maxiter=100)
|
| 112 |
+
self.is_fitted = True
|
| 113 |
+
self.order = order
|
| 114 |
+
self.seasonal_order = seasonal_order
|
| 115 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 116 |
+
print(f"Error fitting SARIMA model: {e}")
|
| 117 |
+
# Fallback to simpler model
|
| 118 |
+
try:
|
| 119 |
+
self.model = SARIMAX(data_clean,
|
| 120 |
+
order=(1, 1, 1),
|
| 121 |
+
seasonal_order=(1, 1, 1, 24),
|
| 122 |
+
enforce_stationarity=False,
|
| 123 |
+
enforce_invertibility=False)
|
| 124 |
+
self.fitted_model = self.model.fit(disp=False, maxiter=50)
|
| 125 |
+
self.is_fitted = True
|
| 126 |
+
except Exception as e2:
|
| 127 |
+
print(f"Error with fallback model: {e2}")
|
| 128 |
+
self.is_fitted = False
|
| 129 |
+
|
| 130 |
+
def predict(self, steps: int, start: Optional[pd.Timestamp] = None) -> pd.Series:
|
| 131 |
+
"""
|
| 132 |
+
Generate predictions
|
| 133 |
+
|
| 134 |
+
Parameters:
|
| 135 |
+
-----------
|
| 136 |
+
steps : int - Number of steps ahead to predict
|
| 137 |
+
start : pd.Timestamp - Start date for prediction
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
Returns:
|
| 140 |
+
--------
|
| 141 |
+
pd.Series - Predictions
|
| 142 |
+
"""
|
| 143 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 144 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before prediction")
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
try:
|
| 147 |
+
forecast = self.fitted_model.forecast(steps=steps)
|
| 148 |
+
if start is not None:
|
| 149 |
+
forecast.index = pd.date_range(start=start, periods=steps, freq='H')
|
| 150 |
+
return forecast
|
| 151 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 152 |
+
print(f"Error in SARIMA prediction: {e}")
|
| 153 |
+
# Return naive forecast as fallback
|
| 154 |
+
if start is not None:
|
| 155 |
+
return pd.Series([self.fitted_model.forecast(steps=1).iloc[0]] * steps,
|
| 156 |
+
index=pd.date_range(start=start, periods=steps, freq='H'))
|
| 157 |
+
return pd.Series([0] * steps)
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
def get_residuals(self) -> pd.Series:
|
| 160 |
+
"""Get residuals from fitted model"""
|
| 161 |
+
if not self.is_fitted:
|
| 162 |
+
raise ValueError("Model must be fitted before getting residuals")
|
| 163 |
+
return self.fitted_model.resid
|
| 164 |
+
|