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| <html lang="en"> | |
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| <title>The Dose-Window Hypothesis — order, calibration, and externalised knowledge in small language models</title> | |
| <meta name="author" content="Chad St Thomas"> | |
| <meta name="description" content="A proposed and partially tested hypothesis on training order, quantisation calibration, and external knowledge in small language models — with every number from frozen instruments and paired controls."> | |
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| <div class="page"> | |
| <header class="top"> | |
| <p class="eyebrow">Preprint · a hypothesis with measured corollaries</p> | |
| <h1>The Dose-Window Hypothesis</h1> | |
| <p class="subtitle">Order, calibration, and externalised knowledge in small | |
| language models — a hypothesis with measured corollaries</p> | |
| <p class="author">Chad St Thomas <span class="affil">· CuriousGene / Tablinum</span></p> | |
| <p class="byline"> | |
| <span><b>Substrate:</b> Qwen3-0.6B · LFM2.5-1.2B · Qwen3.5-2B · Nanbeige-4.2-3B · LFM2.5-8B-A1B</span> | |
| <span><b>Compute:</b> one 6 GB laptop GPU</span> | |
| </p> | |
| </header> | |
| <div class="abstract"> | |
| <span class="lbl">Abstract</span> | |
| <p>This paper proposes and partially tests the <b>Dose-Window | |
| Hypothesis</b>: for a model of size <em>N</em> and a behaviour <em>B</em>, | |
| there is an interval <code>[W_install, W_harm]</code> in effective training | |
| exposure — examples × epochs, measured against the model's existing format | |
| lock — below which <em>B</em> does not install, and above which it saturates | |
| into template memorisation and erodes complementary behaviours, nearest | |
| neighbours first. The hypothesis emerged from an eight-week program training | |
| small language models (0.3B–8B) to investigate — answer from evidence, | |
| challenge false premises, abstain when evidence is absent, cite what each | |
| claim rests on — on a single 6 GB laptop GPU, with every score produced by | |
| frozen, deterministic instruments and paired controls.</p> | |
| <p>Four measured corollaries support it and stand independently of it. | |
| <b>(1) Order beats ingredients:</b> the same category data cost 0.081 mixed | |
| into a base mixture and gained 0.016 as an isolated pulse followed by a | |
| format re-lock, at identical compute. <b>(2) The quantisation floor is | |
| calibration, not bits:</b> two 2-bit builds of one model, identical in file | |
| size and bit width, scored 0.014 and 0.708. <b>(3) Knowledge divides | |
| cleanly:</b> a static, runtime-editable fact table supplies the content half | |
| — lifting premise correction 4–5× at zero training, with a single 8B | |
| reaching 0.959 on the bench and 0.90 on a blind holdout — while the polarity | |
| half remains the model's job and fails below roughly 2B regardless of what | |
| the table supplies. <b>(4) Interfaces leak:</b> giving the model a retrieval | |
| tool scored 0.510–0.633 against 0.939 for retrieving before inference, | |
| through three separable failure modes.</p> | |
| <p>The hypothesis is stated with its untested predictions; section 7 | |
| gives the applications at scale and the open agenda, and section 9 states | |
| what remains unestablished. The evaluation harness and CLI are released as | |
| open source.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">1</span>Measurement infrastructure</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">Every score in this paper comes from a frozen instrument with a | |
| deterministic grader and a paired control. This section defines what that | |
| means, how answers are graded, and how the reported numbers are bounded.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:pipeline--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 250" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="0.0" y="26.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1E3A8A" text-anchor="start">I · INSTRUMENT</text><rect x="0.0" y="40.0" width="236.0" height="158.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="6"/><rect x="14.0" y="56.0" width="208.0" height="36.0" fill="#FFFFFF" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="4"/><text x="24.0" y="71.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">frozen test set</text><text x="24.0" y="84.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">written and sealed</text><rect x="14.0" y="104.0" width="208.0" height="36.0" fill="#FFFFFF" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="4"/><text x="24.0" y="119.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">deterministic grader</text><text x="24.0" y="132.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">match · tail · entailment</text><rect x="14.0" y="152.0" width="208.0" height="36.0" fill="#FFFFFF" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="4"/><text x="24.0" y="167.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">oracle + shortcut check</text><text x="24.0" y="180.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">trivial baseline < 0.90</text><text x="262.0" y="26.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1E3A8A" text-anchor="start">II · TRAINING</text><rect x="262.0" y="40.0" width="236.0" 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fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">engram table</text><text x="548.0" y="84.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">facts + provenance, no training</text><rect x="538.0" y="104.0" width="208.0" height="36.0" fill="#FFFFFF" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="4"/><text x="548.0" y="119.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">substrate</text><text x="548.0" y="132.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">accept / reject / abstain</text><rect x="538.0" y="152.0" width="208.0" height="36.0" fill="#FFFFFF" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="4"/><text x="548.0" y="167.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">rung</text><text x="548.0" y="180.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">scored at every quant level</text><line x1="246.0" y1="119.0" x2="258.0" y2="119.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.4"/><path d="M 258 119.0 l -5 -3.5 l 0 7 z" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="0" fill="#1F2933" stroke-linejoin="round"/><line x1="508.0" y1="119.0" x2="520.0" y2="119.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.4"/><path d="M 520 119.0 l -5 -3.5 l 0 7 z" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="0" fill="#1F2933" stroke-linejoin="round"/><path d="M 642 206 L 642 224 L 118 224 L 118 206" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="1" fill="none" stroke-dasharray="4 3" stroke-linejoin="round"/><path d="M 118 206 l -3.5 6 l 7 0 z" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="0" fill="#64748B" stroke-linejoin="round"/><text x="380.0" y="238.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle" font-style="italic">every measured failure becomes a new frozen item</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:pipeline--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 1.</b> The three phases of the method. Instruments are | |
| frozen before any training run. Deployment failures are fed back as new | |
| instrument items, closing the loop.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <h3>1.1 What an instrument is</h3> | |
| <p>A question set with a deterministic grader, written and sealed before any | |
| training run and never trained on. Four disciplines apply: the file, its | |
| generator, and its build seed are committed together and never rebuilt in | |
| place; training corpora are checked for shared gold values against every frozen | |
| set; every item's gold target grades against itself at 1.0 by construction; and | |
| compared conditions share item identities exactly, so the comparison is | |
| paired.</p> | |
| <div class="box"> | |
| <span class="lbl">Standing guard</span> | |
| <p><code>shortcut_check</code> runs on every new premise or entailment set | |
| before it is trusted. It fits simple baselines — length ratio, lexical | |
| overlap, answer position — and fails the set if any exceeds 0.90. Backfilled | |
| across eight frozen instruments, the values were 0.783–0.867.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <h3>1.2 Controls and contamination</h3> | |
| <p>Every condition reported in this paper is paired with its control on | |
| identical items — an uplift without its baseline is not a result. Training | |
| corpora are re-graded for instrument overlap before every run, and the office | |
| evaluation instruments are deliberately <em>not</em> published, because a | |
| published evaluation set becomes a training set.</p> | |
| <h3>1.3 The grader</h3> | |
| <p>The production grader is strictly additive across three stages: exact and | |
| substring gold-value matching under a rejection lexicon, with unit | |
| normalisation; the same test applied to a tail window of the raw answer; and an | |
| NLI entailment check with the gold fact as premise and the answer as hypothesis, | |
| requiring <code>P(entail) ≥ 0.80</code>. Calibration: 0.991 entailment on a tight | |
| paraphrase, 0.715 on a vague one, correctly declined. Tests pin the bar at | |
| exactly 0.8.</p> | |
| <h3>1.4 Statistical treatment</h3> | |
| <p>For independent bounded scores, simultaneous two-sided intervals for each of | |
| <code>m</code> axis means use Hoeffding's inequality with a union bound:</p> | |
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| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-3d" transform="translate(62.675781 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmex10-71" transform="translate(157.919922 135) scale(0.999609)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-6c" transform="translate(270.373047 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-6f" transform="translate(289.75293 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-67" transform="translate(324.75293 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-28" transform="translate(359.75293 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-32" transform="translate(386.925781 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-6d" transform="translate(421.925781 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-3d" transform="translate(483.380859 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-ae" transform="translate(518.380859 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-29" transform="translate(563.12207 55.25) scale(0.7)"/> | |
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| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-43" transform="translate(836.125 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-49" transform="translate(908.341797 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-3d" transform="translate(961.984375 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-5b" transform="translate(1057.228516 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-6d" transform="translate(1084.914062 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-61" transform="translate(1168.214844 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-78" transform="translate(1218.214844 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-28" transform="translate(1270.900391 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-30" transform="translate(1309.71875 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-3b" transform="translate(1359.71875 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-b9" transform="translate(1415.342285 1.445312)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-78" transform="translate(1404.962891 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmsy10-a1" transform="translate(1479.601562 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-72" transform="translate(1574.845703 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-29" transform="translate(1619.962891 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-3b" transform="translate(1658.78125 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-6d" transform="translate(1728.412521 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-69" transform="translate(1811.713303 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-6e" transform="translate(1839.39885 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-28" transform="translate(1894.916428 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-31" transform="translate(1933.734787 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-3b" transform="translate(1983.734787 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-b9" transform="translate(2039.358322 1.445312)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-78" transform="translate(2028.978928 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-2b" transform="translate(2103.6176 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmmi10-72" transform="translate(2198.86174 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-29" transform="translate(2243.978928 0.273438)"/> | |
| <use xlink:href="#Cmr10-5d" transform="translate(2282.797287 0.273438)"/> | |
| <path d="M 257.873047 132.5 | |
| L 257.873047 138.75 | |
| L 615.294922 138.75 | |
| L 615.294922 132.5 | |
| L 257.873047 132.5 | |
| z | |
| "/> | |
| <path d="M 270.373047 12.75 | |
| L 270.373047 19 | |
| L 590.294922 19 | |
| L 590.294922 12.75 | |
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| </g> | |
| </g> | |
| </g> | |
| </svg> | |
| </span> | |
| <!--/EQ:hoeffding--> | |
| <span class="eqnum">(1)</span> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>At <code>α = 0.05</code>, all four intervals jointly cover their population | |
| means with probability ≥ 0.95. Dependence between axes is permitted; independence | |
| of sampled questions is required. This is a conservative finite-sample bound, not | |
| a power calculation — with a perfect mean it needs ≥ 254 items per axis for the | |
| lower endpoint to reach 0.90. For paired comparisons on identical items, | |
| <code>D_i = candidate_i − baseline_i</code> in [−1, 1], and the radius doubles | |
| because the range width doubles.</p> | |
| <p>Two further constraints on inference were measured. Identical | |
| <code>prompt_sha256</code> produced only 3 of 30 byte-identical answers across | |
| server restarts, giving a ≈2-item noise band on n = 30 across server lifetimes; | |
| within-server comparisons are robust, absolute values are ±0.07. And scores are | |
| compared within a backend only, because kernel numerics can flip an argmax at the | |
| margin — cross-backend cells agree within ≤2 items, so curves are read | |
| within-sweep.</p> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">2</span>The dose window</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">The order in which a behaviour is trained matters more than the | |
| data used to train it. Installing one behaviour by mixing its data into the base | |
| mixture cost score twice; applying the same data as an isolated pulse followed by | |
| a format re-lock produced the program's best result.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:dose--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 330" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="149.1" y="54.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">too little</text><text x="343.2" y="54.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="middle">the window</text><text x="612.4" y="54.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">too much</text><rect x="224.2" y="64.0" width="237.9" height="186.0" fill="#0F766E" opacity="0.08"/><line x1="224.2" y1="64.0" x2="224.2" y2="250.0" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="1.1" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/><line x1="462.1" y1="64.0" x2="462.1" y2="250.0" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="1.1" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/><line x1="74.0" y1="250.0" x2="700.0" y2="250.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="74.0" y1="64.0" x2="74.0" y2="250.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="70.0" y1="250.0" x2="74.0" y2="250.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="66.0" y="254.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.00</text><line x1="70.0" y1="203.5" x2="74.0" y2="203.5" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="66.0" y="207.5" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.25</text><line x1="70.0" y1="157.0" x2="74.0" y2="157.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="66.0" y="161.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.50</text><line x1="70.0" y1="110.5" x2="74.0" y2="110.5" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="66.0" y="114.5" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.75</text><line x1="70.0" y1="64.0" x2="74.0" y2="64.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="66.0" y="68.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">1.00</text><text x="66.0" y="54.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">score</text><text x="700.0" y="268.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">effective exposure (examples × epochs)</text><text x="218.2" y="244.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="600" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="end">W_install</text><text x="468.1" y="244.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="600" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="start">W_harm</text><path d="M 74.0 220.2 L 136.6 205.4 L 224.2 164.4 L 311.9 136.5 L 387.0 119.8 L 462.1 112.4 L 537.2 110.5 L 612.4 114.2 L 700.0 119.8" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="2.2" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><path d="M 74.0 78.9 L 174.2 80.7 L 261.8 84.5 L 349.4 93.8 L 424.6 108.6 L 499.7 145.8 L 574.8 181.2 L 649.9 201.6 L 700.0 209.1" stroke="#BE123C" stroke-width="2.2" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><text x="261.8" y="194.2" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="middle">target behaviour installs</text><text x="562.3" y="194.2" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="600" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">protected axes eroded</text><circle cx="130.3" cy="100.5" r="4.0" fill="#64748B" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="130.3" y="90.5" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">v18 0.804</text><circle cx="336.9" cy="107.2" r="4.0" fill="#64748B" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><circle cx="437.1" cy="115.5" r="4.0" fill="#64748B" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="74.0" y="288.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start" font-style="italic">mixing the behaviour data into the base mix:</text><text x="74.0" y="304.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">v19 0.768 v20 0.723</text><circle cx="524.7" cy="97.5" r="5.5" fill="#1E3A8A" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.6"/><text x="543.5" y="93.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1E3A8A" text-anchor="start">v21 0.820</text><text x="543.5" y="108.6" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#1E3A8A" text-anchor="start">pulse, then re-lock</text><path d="M 524.7 112.4 L 524.7 101.2" stroke="#1E3A8A" stroke-width="1.4" fill="none" stroke-dasharray="3 3" stroke-linejoin="round"/></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:dose--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 2.</b> The dose window. Below <code>W_install</code> the | |
| target behaviour does not install; above <code>W_harm</code> it saturates into | |
| template memorisation and erodes the protected axes, nearest neighbours first. | |
| Measured arms are placed by their construction.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <h3>2.1 The experiment</h3> | |
| <div class="tblwrap"> | |
| <table> | |
| <caption><b>Table 1.</b> Same data, same compute class, same base. The only | |
| variable is order and replay structure.</caption> | |
| <thead><tr><th>arm</th><th>construction</th><th class="num">overall</th><th class="num">Δ baseline</th></tr></thead> | |
| <tbody> | |
| <tr><td>v18</td><td>format-locked baseline</td><td class="num">0.804</td><td class="num">—</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>v19</td><td>34% SQuAD-v2 + premise, mixed into the main mix</td><td class="num">0.768</td><td class="num">−0.036</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>v20</td><td>12% abstain-only, mixed into the main mix</td><td class="num">0.723</td><td class="num">−0.081</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td><b>v21</b></td><td><b>same category data, staged pulse → format re-lock</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.820</b></td><td class="num"><b>+0.016</b></td></tr> | |
| </tbody> | |
| </table> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="box"> | |
| <span class="lbl">Dose-window hypothesis</span> | |
| <p>For a model of size <em>N</em> and behaviour <em>B</em>, there exists an | |
| interval <code>[W_install, W_harm]</code> in effective exposure — examples × | |
| epochs, measured against the model's existing format lock — such that below | |
| <code>W_install</code> the behaviour does not install, and above | |
| <code>W_harm</code> it saturates into template memorisation and erodes | |
| complementary behaviours, nearest neighbours first.</p> | |
| <p style="margin-top:10px"><b>Status of its predictions.</b> | |
| P1, windows widen with scale: supported at one size pair (0.6B → | |
| 1.2B, same recipe), untested beyond. P2, damage is dose-driven rather | |
| than data-driven: supported (v19/v20 vs v21; swapped-order control | |
| collapsed to 0.497). P3, recovery asymmetry between formats and | |
| behaviours: confirmed (Table 2). The mechanism — gradient-level | |
| interference between category batches — is unmeasured; the | |
| correlation structure in Figure 3b is descriptive only. The | |
| hypothesis is therefore a hypothesis: two confirmed predictions, one | |
| partially confirmed, mechanism open.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <h3>2.2 Recovery asymmetry</h3> | |
| <p>A deliberately over-dosed abstention pulse (300 steps, ≈7 epochs over 343 | |
| examples) produced a clean damage map. One epoch-equivalent of re-locking then | |
| repaired the structural damage while the newly installed behaviour survived:</p> | |
| <div class="tblwrap"> | |
| <table> | |
| <caption><b>Table 2.</b> Damage and repair. Formats install deep and leave last; | |
| behavioural skills are fragile during installation and durable once | |
| super-saturated.</caption> | |
| <thead><tr><th>axis</th><th class="num">before</th><th class="num">after over-dose</th><th class="num">after re-lock</th></tr></thead> | |
| <tbody> | |
| <tr><td>grounding</td><td class="num">0.887</td><td class="num">0.025</td><td class="num">0.863</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>premise</td><td class="num">0.733</td><td class="num">0.533</td><td class="num">—</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>abstention</td><td class="num">0.633</td><td class="num">0.567</td><td class="num"><b>0.833</b></td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>provenance</td><td class="num">0.980</td><td class="num">0.940</td><td class="num">held</td></tr> | |
| </tbody> | |
| </table> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>Grounding was erased and restored almost completely <em>while the newly | |
| installed abstention behaviour survived</em>. At 1.2B the same recipe held | |
| abstention at 1.000 and grounding at 0.975 simultaneously — a combination no | |
| 0.6B arm reached. <b>The window widens with scale.</b></p> | |
| <h3>2.3 The per-epoch damage ledger</h3> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:ledger--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 250" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="0.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(a) sub-score damage per epoch</text><text x="0.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">0.2-epoch pulse, 0.6B · normalised weights feed the loss</text><text x="108.0" y="63.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">abstention</text><rect x="118.0" y="48.0" width="214.0" height="22.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="118.0" y="48.0" width="214.0" height="22.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="344.0" y="63.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">2.50</text><text x="390.0" y="63.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">d̃ 0.458</text><text x="108.0" y="105.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">grounding</text><rect x="118.0" y="90.0" width="214.0" height="22.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="118.0" y="90.0" width="90.7" height="22.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="344.0" y="105.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">1.06</text><text x="390.0" y="105.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">d̃ 0.194</text><text x="108.0" y="147.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">premise</text><rect x="118.0" y="132.0" width="214.0" height="22.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="118.0" y="132.0" width="85.6" height="22.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="344.0" y="147.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">1.00</text><text x="390.0" y="147.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">d̃ 0.183</text><text x="108.0" y="189.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">provenance</text><rect x="118.0" y="174.0" width="214.0" height="22.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="118.0" y="174.0" width="77.0" height="22.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="344.0" y="189.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">0.90</text><text x="390.0" y="189.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">d̃ 0.165</text><text x="118.0" y="224.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">total 5.46 / epoch</text><text x="470.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(b) interference structure</text><text x="470.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">Spearman over 8 runs · descriptive, not causal</text><text x="470.0" y="62.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">premise ↔ abstention</text><rect x="588.0" y="70.0" width="81.0" height="16.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="676.0" y="82.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">+0.88</text><text x="470.0" y="114.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">grounding ↔ provenance</text><rect x="588.0" y="122.0" width="49.7" height="16.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="644.7" y="134.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">+0.54</text><text x="470.0" y="166.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">provenance ↔ overall</text><rect x="531.9" y="174.0" width="56.1" height="16.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="524.9" y="186.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="end">-0.61</text><line x1="588.0" y1="54.0" x2="588.0" y2="214.0" stroke="#CBD5E1" stroke-width="1"/><text x="588.0" y="48.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">0</text><text x="470.0" y="230.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start" font-style="italic">negative = the axis moves against overall score</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:ledger--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 3.</b> (a) Sub-score damage per epoch, measured on a | |
| 0.2-epoch pulse at 0.6B, with the normalised weights the objective uses. | |
| (b) Interference structure across eight sequentially selected runs — | |
| descriptive, not causal.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <h3>2.4 The objective: damage-aware OPD</h3> | |
| <p>Inherited from MiniCPM5: specialist teachers, a reverse-KL teacher signal used | |
| as a per-token advantage, and distillation prompt reuse. That pipeline has no | |
| notion of cross-behaviour interference during consolidation. This program | |
| measured exactly that interference; DA-OPD is the synthesis.</p> | |
| <p>The sampled token advantage, unbiased at the behaviour policy:</p> | |
| <div class="eqblock"> | |
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| <!--/EQ:advantage--> | |
| <span class="eqnum">(2)</span> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>The consolidation loss:</p> | |
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| <!-- $\mathcal{L}(\theta) = -\,\mathbb{E}_{\tau \sim \pi_\theta}\left[ \mathrm{mean}_{t \in \tau_a}\, \rho_t \cdot \mathrm{sg}(A_t) \right] + \beta \sum_c \tilde{d}_c\, \mathbb{E}_{\tau \sim \mathcal{D}_c}\left[ \mathrm{KL}(\pi_{\mathrm{ref}} \,\|\, \pi_\theta) \right]$ --> | |
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| <span class="eqnum">(3)</span> | |
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| <p>where the importance ratio is</p> | |
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| <!--/EQ:ratio--> | |
| <span class="eqnum">(4)</span> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>The first term is the unmodified on-policy distillation objective. The second | |
| term is the addition: while a teacher's domain is being consolidated, every | |
| protected category pays an anchor-KL penalty to a frozen reference, weighted by | |
| how expensive that category is to damage. The reference is the common SFT | |
| initialisation, with <code>β = 0.25</code> as the prior. Setting | |
| <code>β = 0</code> recovers vanilla OPD and is the control arm.</p> | |
| <p>The measured comparison: <code>β = 0.25</code> anchored beat | |
| <code>β = 0</code> control in <b>3 of 3 student seeds</b> on overall and every | |
| protected axis at equal transfer (0.816 vs 0.791). Premise preservation failed in | |
| all six arm-seeds, and the <code>β = 0.5</code> screen fired STOP per its frozen | |
| rule because the β response is non-monotone.</p> | |
| <h3>2.5 Dose allocation as a linear program</h3> | |
| <p>Teacher routing is solved before any run rather than tuned after it:</p> | |
| <div class="eqblock"> | |
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| <!-- $\max_{k}\; \sum_c \left( g_c - \sum_{c' \neq c} D_{c \to c'} \right) k_c , \qquad 0 \leq k_c \leq \hat{W}_{\mathrm{harm},c}, \;\; \sum_c k_c \leq K$ --> | |
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| </span> | |
| <!--/EQ:alloc--> | |
| <span class="eqnum">(5)</span> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>where <code>g_c</code> is own-category installation gain per epoch, | |
| <code>D_{c→c'}</code> is the expected sub-score change in <code>c'</code> per | |
| epoch of category-<code>c</code> exposure, <code>Ŵ_harm,c</code> is the measured | |
| harm threshold, and <code>K</code> is the total update budget. Unmeasured rows | |
| default to the mean measured damage and are flagged. The output — per-teacher | |
| budgets and predicted per-category deltas — is falsifiable against the run's | |
| actual deltas.</p> | |
| <h3>2.6 Recipes are per-substrate</h3> | |
| <p>Three measured points on the same recipe family: at 0.6B the recipe trains | |
| behaviours up and MMLU rose 3.7 points; at 1.2B the same recipe preserves the | |
| cost but damages MMLU monotonically with dose (42.34 → 40.72); at Qwen3.5-2B the | |
| recipe <em>regressed</em> against a strong base across every variant measured | |
| (−0.08 overall, −5.22 MMLU). The dilution law is measured, not inferred. Recipe | |
| choice is an experimental variable per substrate, not a transferred | |
| constant.</p> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">3</span>Compression: calibration, not bits</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">Two 2-bit builds of one model, identical in file size and bit | |
| width, scored 0.014 and 0.708. The variable was not how far the model was | |
| compressed but what the compressor was told to protect.</p> | |
| <h3>3.1 The estimand</h3> | |
| <p>The quantisation gap of a lineage at a rung is</p> | |
| <div class="eqblock"> | |
| <!--EQ:gap--> | |
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| <cc:Work> | |
| <dc:type rdf:resource="http://purl.org/dc/dcmitype/StillImage"/> | |
| <dc:date>2026-10-14T10:55:36.835189</dc:date> | |
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| </g> | |
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| </g> | |
| </svg> | |
| </span> | |
| <!--/EQ:gap--> | |
| <span class="eqnum">(6)</span> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>measured at identical evaluation, protocol, seed, and decode settings. | |
| Matched-quant deltas only: <code>candidate_rung − base_rung</code> is reportable; | |
| <code>candidate_rung − base_bf16</code> is never reported as a delta. Each rung | |
| is a frozen estimand with its own lock entry.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:parity--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 300" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="0.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(a) dense / looped 3B · 2.6 GB</text><text x="0.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">score by rung; calibrated Q2 matches Q4 at 73% of the size</text><line x1="60.0" y1="236.0" x2="380.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="60.0" y1="44.0" x2="60.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="56.0" y1="236.0" x2="60.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="52.0" y="240.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.0</text><line x1="56.0" y1="140.0" x2="60.0" y2="140.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="52.0" y="144.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.5</text><line x1="56.0" y1="44.0" x2="60.0" y2="44.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="52.0" y="48.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">1.0</text><text x="52.0" y="36.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">v3</text><text x="220.0" y="268.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">artifact size (GB)</text><line x1="60.0" y1="97.4" x2="380.0" y2="97.4" stroke="#B45309" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/><text x="64.0" y="89.4" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#B45309" text-anchor="start">Q4 = 0.722</text><circle cx="345.7" cy="97.4" r="5.5" fill="#0F766E" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><circle cx="199.4" cy="100.1" r="5.5" fill="#0F766E" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><circle cx="87.4" cy="222.8" r="5.5" fill="#BE123C" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><circle cx="199.4" cy="233.3" r="5.5" fill="#BE123C" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="345.7" y="83.4" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">Q4_K_M</text><text x="199.4" y="86.1" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="middle">Q2 + imatrix 0.708</text><text x="199.4" y="221.3" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">Q2 naive 0.014</text><text x="87.4" y="200.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">IQ1_M 0.069</text><text x="220.0" y="284.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">same bits, same size: ≈50× apart</text><text x="220.0" y="298.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle" font-style="italic">the variable is the calibration corpus</text><text x="440.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(b) MoE 7.9B / 1.3B active</text><text x="440.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">2-bit retention where the dense substrate collapsed</text><line x1="484.0" y1="236.0" x2="740.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="484.0" y1="44.0" x2="484.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="480.0" y1="236.0" x2="484.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="476.0" y="240.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.0</text><line x1="480.0" y1="140.0" x2="484.0" y2="140.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="476.0" y="144.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.5</text><line x1="480.0" y1="44.0" x2="484.0" y2="44.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="476.0" y="48.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">1.0</text><path d="M 532.0 73.4 L 616.0 83.9 L 700.0 86.6" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="1.8" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><circle cx="532.0" cy="73.4" r="5.5" fill="#0F766E" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="532.0" y="61.4" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.847</text><text x="532.0" y="252.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">Q4_K_M</text><circle cx="616.0" cy="83.9" r="5.5" fill="#0F766E" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="616.0" y="71.9" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.792</text><text x="616.0" y="252.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">IQ2_M</text><circle cx="700.0" cy="86.6" r="5.5" fill="#0F766E" stroke="#FFFFFF" stroke-width="1.4"/><text x="700.0" y="74.6" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.778</text><text x="700.0" y="252.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">Q2_K</text><text x="712.0" y="104.6" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="end">93% of Q4</text><line x1="484.0" y1="222.8" x2="740.0" y2="222.8" stroke="#BE123C" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/><text x="490.0" y="214.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="start">dense at Q2 / IQ1: 0.014 – 0.069</text><text x="612.0" y="284.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle" font-style="italic">expert redundancy is the quantisation armour</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:parity--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 4.</b> (a) The parity column on one dense/looped | |
| substrate. Calibrated Q2 sits within noise of Q4 at 73% of the file size; | |
| naive Q2 collapses; IQ1 destroys the polarity capability itself. (b) An MoE | |
| retains 92–93% of its Q4 score at 2 bits, where the dense substrate | |
| collapsed.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <h3>3.2 The 50× swing, and the mechanism</h3> | |
| <div class="tblwrap"> | |
| <table> | |
| <caption><b>Table 3.</b> One substrate, four rungs, greedy decode, paired | |
| controls. The two Q2 builds are identical in size and bit width.</caption> | |
| <thead><tr><th>rung</th><th class="num">size</th><th class="num">engram v3</th><th class="num">control v3</th><th class="num">uplift</th></tr></thead> | |
| <tbody> | |
| <tr><td>Q4_K_M</td><td class="num">2.40 GB</td><td class="num">0.722</td><td class="num">0.056</td><td class="num">13×</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td><b>Q2_K, imatrix-calibrated</b></td><td class="num"><b>1.76 GB</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.708</b></td><td class="num">0.111</td><td class="num">6.4×</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td><b>Q2_K, naive</b></td><td class="num"><b>1.76 GB</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.014</b></td><td class="num">0.000</td><td class="num">collapsed</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>IQ1_M, imatrix-calibrated</td><td class="num">1.27 GB</td><td class="num">0.069</td><td class="num">0.014</td><td class="num">5× on a collapsed base</td></tr> | |
| </tbody> | |
| </table> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>The mechanism is standard tooling, not an invention here. | |
| <code>llama-imatrix</code> runs a calibration corpus through the model and | |
| accumulates, per weight, an importance estimate derived from the expected squared | |
| activation flowing through it — the diagonal of an empirical Hessian/Fisher-type | |
| quantity. <code>llama-quantize --imatrix</code> then allocates bit precision by | |
| that importance: weights the calibration data exercises heavily keep resolution, | |
| weights it rarely touches are squeezed harder.</p> | |
| <p><b>The contribution is the calibration corpus choice.</b> The imatrix was | |
| built from this program's own corpora. A generic calibration set does not know | |
| which weights a given domain depends on. The consequence is practical: if a rung | |
| collapses, the first variable to fix is <em>what you calibrated against</em>, | |
| not the rung.</p> | |
| <h3>3.3 The parity ladder, and the IQ1 verdict</h3> | |
| <p>The deployable artifact is a matched pair <code>(rung, table)</code>, and the | |
| product claim is a curve: composite score stays flat as weights shrink, with the | |
| table growing slightly to compensate. Pre-registered gates: at every rung there | |
| exists a table size scoring within 0.05 of the top-rung reference, and a larger | |
| table never hurts.</p> | |
| <p><code>IQ1_M</code>, calibrated from our own corpora, was measured on both | |
| architecture classes: dense <b>0.069</b>, MoE <b>0.097</b>. Both collapsed. The | |
| compression destroys the <em>polarity</em> capability itself, and the division of | |
| labour in §4 says the table cannot replace the model's reject half. IQ1 + engram | |
| parity with an uncompressed base fails on both classes; <b>the ladder floor is | |
| calibrated 2-bit</b>.</p> | |
| <h3>3.4 MoE quantisation armour</h3> | |
| <p>A 7.9B/A1.3B mixture-of-experts held 92–93% of its Q4 score at 2 bits, where | |
| the dense looped substrate measured 0.014–0.069. Expert redundancy functions as | |
| quantisation armour. This is one measured cell on one instrument, not a general | |
| claim about MoE architectures.</p> | |
| <h3>3.5 Tables are quantisation-immune</h3> | |
| <p>On one trained 1.2B substrate the same fact table scored <b>0.767 at F16 and | |
| 0.767 at Q4_K_M — bit-for-bit identical</b> — and retained 70% of its uplift at | |
| Q2_K (0.533, against a 0.383 floor) at one fifth the file size. Facts in a table | |
| survive compression; facts in the weights do not.</p> | |
| <div class="box bad"> | |
| <span class="lbl">Published numbers are not admissible references</span> | |
| <p>A model advertised at ~84–85 MMLU scored <b>48.2</b> on this harness. The | |
| gap is protocol, not model: 0-shot letter-loglikelihood here against 5-shot | |
| generative on the full set, an offset of roughly 36 points that cannot be | |
| modelled away. Vendor benchmark numbers are inadmissible as base references on | |
| this harness; base-only runs of our own are the references, and a | |
| generation-based public bench is the cleaner external anchor.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">4</span>The engram: division of labour</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">An engram here is a static, runtime-editable fact table — a few | |
| hundred to a few thousand rows, each with source provenance — whose retrieved | |
| hits are injected into the prompt. No architecture change, no training. The task | |
| splits cleanly into a half only the model can supply and a half a table supplies | |
| better than training can.</p> | |
| <h3>4.1 The decomposition</h3> | |
| <p>Fine-grained grading separates three outcomes on reject-polarity items: | |
| <em>corrected</em> (rejected the premise and stated the true fact), | |
| <em>affirmed</em> (accepted a false premise), and <em>rejected without | |
| content</em> (rejected but could not state the fact). All arms share the same six | |
| retrieval misses, so the residual decomposes cleanly.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:division--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 258" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="190.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">outcome on 60 reject-polarity items, hard bench</text><text x="190.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">every arm shares the same six retrieval misses</text><text x="178.0" y="65.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">Qwen3-0.6B dense</text><rect x="190.0" y="46.0" width="46.7" height="26.0" fill="#0F766E" opacity="0.92"/><text x="213.3" y="64.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">7</text><rect x="236.7" y="46.0" width="20.0" height="26.0" 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y="110.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">6</text><rect x="416.7" y="92.0" width="173.3" height="26.0" fill="#BE123C" opacity="0.92"/><text x="503.3" y="110.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">26</text><text x="602.0" y="110.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="start">polarity</text><text x="178.0" y="157.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">Qwen3.5-2B dense</text><rect x="190.0" y="138.0" width="306.7" height="26.0" fill="#0F766E" opacity="0.92"/><text x="343.3" y="156.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">46</text><rect x="496.7" y="138.0" width="80.0" height="26.0" fill="#B45309" opacity="0.92"/><text x="536.7" y="156.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">12</text><rect x="576.7" y="138.0" width="13.3" height="26.0" fill="#BE123C" opacity="0.92"/><text x="602.0" y="156.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">content</text><text x="178.0" y="203.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">Nanbeige 3B looped</text><rect x="190.0" y="184.0" width="286.7" height="26.0" fill="#0F766E" opacity="0.92"/><text x="333.3" y="202.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">43</text><rect x="476.7" y="184.0" width="73.3" height="26.0" fill="#B45309" opacity="0.92"/><text x="513.3" y="202.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">11</text><rect x="550.0" y="184.0" width="40.0" height="26.0" fill="#BE123C" opacity="0.92"/><text x="570.0" y="202.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="700" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">6</text><text x="602.0" y="202.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">content</text><rect x="190.0" y="246.0" width="11.0" height="11.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.92"/><text x="207.0" y="256.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">corrected</text><rect x="292.1" y="246.0" width="11.0" height="11.0" fill="#B45309" rx="2" opacity="0.92"/><text x="309.1" y="256.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">rejected, no content</text><rect x="454.1" y="246.0" width="11.0" height="11.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="2" opacity="0.92"/><text x="471.1" y="256.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">affirmed a false premise</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:division--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 5.</b> Outcome decomposition on 60 reject-polarity | |
| items. The failure mode is not one thing: below roughly 2B, models affirm false | |
| premises even when the true fact is supplied, and no amount of additional | |
| facts repairs that.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <p><b>Polarity is the model's job.</b> Accept or reject. At 0.6B, 50 of 60 | |
| reject items failed this way. Below roughly 2B the model affirms a false premise | |
| even when handed the true fact — a judgement limit, not a knowledge limit.</p> | |
| <p><b>Content is the table's job.</b> What the true fact <em>is</em>. Supply it | |
| and content failures nearly vanish; at 1.2B the model restates an injected fact | |
| 89% of the time when it rejects.</p> | |
| <h3>4.2 Uplift, and why its shape matters</h3> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:uplift--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 268" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="0.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(a) paired uplift across the model ladder</text><text x="0.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">engram ÷ paired control, hard bench</text><line x1="56.0" y1="196.0" x2="350.0" y2="196.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="56.0" y1="46.0" x2="56.0" y2="196.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><rect x="67.8" y="165.2" width="25.5" height="30.8" fill="#64748B" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="80.5" y="159.2" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">3.7×</text><text x="80.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">0.6B</text><rect x="116.8" y="54.3" width="25.5" height="141.7" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="129.5" y="48.3" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">17×</text><text x="129.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">1.2B</text><rect x="165.8" y="136.8" width="25.5" height="59.2" fill="#64748B" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="178.5" y="130.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">7.1×</text><text x="178.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">2B</text><rect x="214.8" y="87.7" width="25.5" height="108.3" fill="#64748B" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="227.5" y="81.7" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">13×</text><text x="227.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">loop</text><rect x="263.8" y="153.5" width="25.5" height="42.5" fill="#64748B" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="276.5" y="147.5" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">5.1×</text><text x="276.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">Ling</text><rect x="312.8" y="156.8" width="25.5" height="39.2" fill="#64748B" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="325.5" y="150.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">4.7×</text><text x="325.5" y="211.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">8B</text><text x="46.0" y="38.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">×</text><line x1="52.0" y1="154.3" x2="56.0" y2="154.3" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="48.0" y="158.3" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">5</text><line x1="52.0" y1="112.7" x2="56.0" y2="112.7" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="48.0" y="116.7" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">10</text><line x1="52.0" y1="71.0" x2="56.0" y2="71.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="48.0" y="75.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">15</text><text x="203.0" y="230.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">input model size</text><text x="350.0" y="50.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="600" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="end">peaks mid-ladder, then declines</text><text x="400.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(b) engram-size scaling by architecture class</text><text x="400.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">hard bench, engram condition</text><line x1="440.0" y1="196.0" x2="664.0" y2="196.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="440.0" y1="46.0" x2="440.0" y2="196.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="436.0" y1="150.3" x2="440.0" y2="150.3" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="432.0" y="154.3" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.4</text><line x1="436.0" y1="113.7" x2="440.0" y2="113.7" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="432.0" y="117.7" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.6</text><line x1="436.0" y1="77.1" x2="440.0" y2="77.1" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="432.0" y="81.1" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.8</text><text x="440.0" y="211.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">310</text><text x="552.0" y="211.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">1K</text><text x="664.0" y="211.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">3K</text><text x="552.0" y="230.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">facts in the table</text><path d="M 440.0 55.7 L 552.0 53.1 L 664.0 53.1" stroke="#1E3A8A" stroke-width="1.8" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><circle cx="440.0" cy="55.7" r="3.6" fill="#1E3A8A"/><circle cx="552.0" cy="53.1" r="3.6" fill="#1E3A8A"/><circle cx="664.0" cy="53.1" r="3.6" fill="#1E3A8A"/><path d="M 440.0 65.9 L 552.0 58.3 L 664.0 58.3" stroke="#6D28D9" stroke-width="1.8" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><circle cx="440.0" cy="65.9" r="3.6" fill="#6D28D9"/><circle cx="552.0" cy="58.3" r="3.6" fill="#6D28D9"/><circle cx="664.0" cy="58.3" r="3.6" fill="#6D28D9"/><path d="M 440.0 78.6 L 552.0 73.6 L 664.0 71.1" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="1.8" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><circle cx="440.0" cy="78.6" r="3.6" fill="#0F766E"/><circle cx="552.0" cy="73.6" r="3.6" fill="#0F766E"/><circle cx="664.0" cy="71.1" r="3.6" fill="#0F766E"/><path d="M 440.0 86.2 L 552.0 86.2 L 664.0 86.2" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="1.8" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round"/><circle cx="440.0" cy="86.2" r="3.6" fill="#64748B"/><circle cx="552.0" cy="86.2" r="3.6" fill="#64748B"/><circle cx="664.0" cy="86.2" r="3.6" fill="#64748B"/><line x1="672.0" y1="53.0" x2="686.0" y2="53.0" stroke="#1E3A8A" stroke-width="1.8"/><text x="691.0" y="56.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="600" fill="#1E3A8A" text-anchor="start">8B-A1B</text><line x1="672.0" y1="73.0" x2="686.0" y2="73.0" stroke="#6D28D9" stroke-width="1.8"/><text x="691.0" y="76.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="600" fill="#6D28D9" text-anchor="start">Ling</text><line x1="672.0" y1="93.0" x2="686.0" y2="93.0" stroke="#0F766E" stroke-width="1.8"/><text x="691.0" y="96.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="600" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">2B dense</text><line x1="672.0" y1="113.0" x2="686.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="1.8"/><text x="691.0" y="116.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="600" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">loop 3B</text><text x="440.0" y="38.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">v3</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:uplift--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 6.</b> (a) Paired uplift across the model ladder peaks | |
| where a model has enough judgement to use a fact and not enough knowledge to | |
| already contain it, then declines as the control floor rises. (b) Engram-size | |
| scaling separates by architecture class: both MoEs saturate near 1,000 facts | |
| while the dense 2B is still rising and the 0.6B is flat.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <p>Uplift is defined as the ratio of the engram condition to its paired control. | |
| The first true paired table in the program's history: 3.7× at 0.6B, <b>17× at | |
| 1.2B</b>, 7.1× at 2B, 13× on the looped substrate at Q4, 5.1× and 4.7× on the two | |
| MoEs.</p> | |
| <p><b>Uplift is non-monotone.</b> It peaks mid-ladder and declines at the top as | |
| the control floor rises. The declining tail is the first measured support for the | |
| prediction that a substrate carrying knowledge natively has less headroom.</p> | |
| <p>A related result: a gate that decides <em>whether</em> to supply the fact was | |
| falsified on both scales. Always-inject beats gated-inject, because injected | |
| facts help true-premise items too, and withholding costs more than the gate's | |
| reject decision adds.</p> | |
| <h3>4.3 Saturation arrives near a thousand facts</h3> | |
| <p>Growing a table from 310 to 3,000 facts bought +0.02 to +0.04 — a real gain, | |
| not a step change. Gate reads: within-class consistency passed (both MoEs trend | |
| identically), between-class difference passed (MoE saturates at 1,000, dense-2B | |
| still rising, 0.6B flat), and the capacity signature is supported but shallow. | |
| Anti-cheat guard: table growth uses generator-grown, provenance-recorded facts | |
| only, never bench-derived; golds stay frozen and hit@1 is re-measured at every | |
| size.</p> | |
| <h3>4.4 Table quality beats table volume</h3> | |
| <p>Twenty items were authored from the frozen table's corpus facts — its actual | |
| distribution, disjoint from the bench's end-user topics — and committed | |
| <b>before any retrieval probing at all</b>.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:holdout--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 268" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="0.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(a) blind holdout: the first table was overfitted</text><text x="0.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">offline probe · both tables include the holdout gold rows</text><line x1="56.0" y1="194.0" x2="400.0" y2="194.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="56.0" y1="48.0" x2="56.0" y2="194.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1.2"/><line x1="52.0" y1="121.0" x2="56.0" y2="121.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="48.0" y="125.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">0.5</text><line x1="52.0" y1="48.0" x2="56.0" y2="48.0" stroke="#1F2933" stroke-width="1"/><text x="48.0" y="52.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="end">1.0</text><rect x="83.5" y="65.8" width="51.6" height="128.2" fill="#BE123C" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="109.3" y="60.8" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.88</text><rect x="148.9" y="50.9" width="51.6" height="143.1" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="174.7" y="45.9" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.98</text><text x="142.0" y="210.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">bench</text><text x="142.0" y="222.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">hit@1</text><rect x="255.5" y="113.7" width="51.6" height="80.3" fill="#BE123C" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="281.3" y="108.7" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.55</text><rect x="320.9" y="69.9" width="51.6" height="124.1" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="346.7" y="64.9" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="middle">0.85</text><text x="314.0" y="210.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">holdout</text><text x="314.0" y="222.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">hit@1</text><rect x="56.0" y="240.0" width="10.0" height="10.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="71.0" y="249.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">frozen (28,425)</text><rect x="172.0" y="240.0" width="10.0" height="10.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="2" opacity="0.9"/><text x="187.0" y="249.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">challenger (2,445)</text><text x="440.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">(b) volume against performance</text><text x="440.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">2,445 facts is 8.6% of 28,405</text><text x="440.0" y="58.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">hand-curated · 28,405 facts</text><rect x="440.0" y="66.0" width="290.0" height="24.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="3" opacity="0.9"/><text x="440.0" y="106.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="start">hit@1 0.55</text><text x="440.0" y="146.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">mechanical hygiene · 2,445 facts</text><rect x="440.0" y="154.0" width="25.0" height="24.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.9"/><text x="473.0" y="172.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">hit@1 0.85</text><text x="440.0" y="206.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">≈ 8.6% of the volume</text><text x="440.0" y="224.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">+0.30 holdout hit@1</text><text x="440.0" y="240.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">+0.40 holdout v3</text><text x="440.0" y="258.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start" font-style="italic">every residual miss traced to same-topic near-duplicates</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:holdout--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 7.</b> The blind holdout exposed the first table as | |
| overfitted to its bench. Offline retrieval probe; both tables include | |
| the holdout gold rows, so the comparison is like-for-like. A mechanically | |
| filtered table at 8.6% of the volume outperformed it on both benches.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <div class="tblwrap"> | |
| <table> | |
| <caption><b>Table 4.</b> Retrieval quality, offline probe. Both tables include | |
| the twenty holdout gold rows, so the comparison is like-for-like; hit@1 / | |
| hit@3.</caption> | |
| <thead><tr><th>table</th><th class="num">bench</th><th class="num">holdout</th></tr></thead> | |
| <tbody> | |
| <tr><td>frozen, hand-curated (28,425 rows)</td><td class="num">0.878 / 0.959</td><td class="num">0.550 / 0.750</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td><b>challenger, mechanical (2,445 rows)</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.980 / 1.000</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.850 / 0.900</b></td></tr> | |
| </tbody> | |
| </table> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>Without the holdout rows merged, the frozen table's holdout retrieval | |
| collapsed further — hit@1 <b>0.30</b>, v3 0.50 — so the probe above flatters | |
| it. Every residual miss on the large table traced to same-topic | |
| near-duplicates that the mechanical hygiene pass never admits. Volume was the | |
| disease.</p> | |
| <p>Final gates on the challenger, single 8B-A1B, pool 50, top-k 1, no keyword | |
| tiebreak: bench <b>0.959</b> at the strict stage-1 grader (0.980 on grader | |
| v2), blind holdout <b>0.900</b> (18/20, on-hit conversion 17/17). The 0.9 gate | |
| passes on a single model, on both the original bench and the blind | |
| holdout.</p> | |
| <h3>4.5 Retrieval geometry</h3> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:retrieval--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 218" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><text x="196.0" y="12.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">retrieval hit@1 at 18K facts</text><text x="196.0" y="27.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">three-leg retrieval, measured cumulatively</text><text x="182.0" y="67.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">keyword overlap</text><rect x="196.0" y="48.0" width="372.0" height="26.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="196.0" y="48.0" width="182.3" height="26.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="580.0" y="67.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">0.490</text><text x="182.0" y="115.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">+ bge-small embeddings</text><rect x="196.0" y="96.0" width="372.0" height="26.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="196.0" y="96.0" width="280.9" height="26.0" fill="#B45309" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="580.0" y="115.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">0.755</text><text x="634.0" y="115.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#B45309" text-anchor="start">+0.265</text><text x="182.0" y="163.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="end">+ cross-encoder re-rank</text><rect x="196.0" y="144.0" width="372.0" height="26.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="3"/><rect x="196.0" y="144.0" width="334.1" height="26.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="3" opacity="0.92"/><text x="580.0" y="163.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">0.898</text><text x="634.0" y="163.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="11" font-weight="700" fill="#0F766E" text-anchor="start">+0.143</text><text x="196.0" y="200.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start" font-style="italic">Embeddings fix conversational collisions; exact-token re-ranking fixes the numeral-differing</text><text x="196.0" y="214.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start" font-style="italic">distractors embeddings cannot separate. A hybrid, not a swap.</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:retrieval--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 8.</b> The retrieval ladder at 18K facts. Dense | |
| embeddings fix the conversational-collision problem that kills keyword search | |
| above roughly a thousand facts; exact-token re-ranking fixes the | |
| numeral-differing distractors embeddings cannot separate.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <p>Conflict-aware distillation is the named next lever: two facts, same | |
| topic, different numbers — keep the document-pinned one.</p> | |
| <h3>4.6 Cross-vertical transfer</h3> | |
| <p>The formula was run on three verticals, reported on one basis | |
| (stage-1 / grader v2): M365 0.959 / 0.980, SQL Server 0.878 / 0.878, | |
| PowerShell 0.781 / 0.829. On PowerShell the <b>model leg transferred | |
| unchanged</b> — on-hit conversion 0.96–1.00, replicating the M365 result | |
| including on affirm items — while the retrieval leg was bound by table quality | |
| (0.585 hit@1 against M365's 0.898). The gap on a new vertical is a table-quality | |
| problem, not a method problem.</p> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">5</span>Interface: where the knowledge enters</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">Giving the model a retrieval tool made it worse than retrieving | |
| before inference — at both scales measured, through three separable failure | |
| modes.</p> | |
| <figure> | |
| <div class="figbox"><!--FIG:leaks--> | |
| <svg viewBox="0 0 760 226" width="100%" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="display:block"><rect x="0.0" y="44.0" width="158.0" height="96.0" fill="#0F766E" rx="6" opacity="0.93"/><text x="79.0" y="86.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="22" font-weight="800" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">1.000</text><text x="79.0" y="108.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="600" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle">pre-injection</text><text x="79.0" y="124.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#FFFFFF" text-anchor="middle" opacity="0.85">on-hit conversion</text><text x="190.0" y="50.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">1 · initiation</text><text x="190.0" y="66.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">does the model ask?</text><rect x="190.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="5"/><rect x="190.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="5" opacity="0.1"/><text x="269.0" y="112.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="21" font-weight="800" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">0.367</text><text x="269.0" y="129.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">8B, unprompted</text><line x1="352.0" y1="109.0" x2="372.0" y2="109.0" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="1.2"/><path d="M 372 109 l -5 -3 l 0 6 z" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="0" fill="#64748B" stroke-linejoin="round"/><text x="380.0" y="50.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">2 · query quality</text><text x="380.0" y="66.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">does the query find it?</text><rect x="380.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="5"/><rect x="380.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="5" opacity="0.1"/><text x="459.0" y="112.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="21" font-weight="800" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">0.490</text><text x="459.0" y="129.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">keyword hit@1</text><line x1="542.0" y1="109.0" x2="562.0" y2="109.0" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="1.2"/><path d="M 562 109 l -5 -3 l 0 6 z" stroke="#64748B" stroke-width="0" fill="#64748B" stroke-linejoin="round"/><text x="570.0" y="50.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11.5" font-weight="700" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">3 · round trip</text><text x="570.0" y="66.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="start">does it convert?</text><rect x="570.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#F8FAFC" stroke="#E2E8F0" stroke-width="1" rx="5"/><rect x="570.0" y="78.0" width="158.0" height="62.0" fill="#BE123C" rx="5" opacity="0.1"/><text x="649.0" y="112.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="21" font-weight="800" fill="#BE123C" text-anchor="middle">0.722</text><text x="649.0" y="129.0" font-family="'JetBrains Mono', ui-monospace, Consolas, monospace" font-size="9.5" font-weight="normal" fill="#64748B" text-anchor="middle">on-call conversion</text><text x="0.0" y="172.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">Three leaks, measured separately and compounding. Pre-injection risks none of them.</text><text x="0.0" y="190.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">At 350M the constraint is stage 3, not stage 1: the tool is called on 96–98% of items and the</text><text x="0.0" y="208.0" font-family="Inter, system-ui, 'Segoe UI', sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="normal" fill="#1F2933" text-anchor="start">model still affirms the false premise when handed the correct fact.</text></svg> | |
| <!--/FIG:leaks--></div> | |
| <figcaption><b>Figure 9.</b> The three leaks. Pre-injection risks none of | |
| them: by the time the model sees the question, the fact is already in | |
| context.</figcaption> | |
| </figure> | |
| <div class="tblwrap"> | |
| <table> | |
| <caption><b>Table 5.</b> Same questions, same grader, same model — all four | |
| arms on one basis.</caption> | |
| <thead><tr><th>arm</th><th class="num">tool-call rate</th><th class="num">on-call conversion</th><th class="num">v3, 8B</th><th class="num">v3, 350M</th></tr></thead> | |
| <tbody> | |
| <tr><td><b>pre-injection</b></td><td class="num">n/a</td><td class="num">1.000 on-hit</td><td class="num"><b>0.939</b></td><td class="num"><b>0.327</b></td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>tool available, model chooses</td><td class="num">36.7%</td><td class="num">0.722</td><td class="num">0.510</td><td class="num">0.265</td></tr> | |
| <tr><td>tool call, model writes the query</td><td class="num">98.0%</td><td class="num">0.625</td><td class="num">0.633</td><td class="num">0.061</td></tr> | |
| </tbody> | |
| </table> | |
| </div> | |
| <p>The three leaks are independent and they compound. <b>Initiation</b>: with the | |
| tool merely available, the 8B calls it on barely a third of items and answers | |
| blind the rest of the way. <b>Query quality</b>: with explicit framing the call | |
| rate reaches 98%, but the model's keyword queries hit the right fact only ~49% of | |
| the time. <b>Round-trip conversion</b>: even when the perfect fact is returned, | |
| conversion through the tool result is 0.722 against 1.000 for pre-injection.</p> | |
| <div class="box bad"> | |
| <span class="lbl">The product reading</span> | |
| <p>An MCP surface does not make a small model competent. At 350M the tool is | |
| called on 96–98% of items and conversion is still 0.27 with the perfect fact | |
| handed back — the misses are <em>affirmed</em>. The binding constraint at that | |
| scale is conversion, not access. For a bounded product scope, pre-injection is | |
| strictly better; tool-calling remains interesting only for open-ended retrieval | |
| the engram cannot anticipate.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <h3>The arithmetic wall</h3> | |
| <p>One-shot multi-row spreadsheet aggregation failed at every scale measured, | |
| including 1.2B with harness arithmetic supplied — asserting 102,000 against | |
| 15,834.36. Scale bought document quality, not the composition skill. The product | |
| answer is a deterministic harness that evaluates formulas against a harvested cell | |
| grid and prints exact totals regardless of model state. The measured boundary in | |
| the trained 350M: three rows 1.000, seven rows 0.167.</p> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">6</span>The artifact</h2> | |
| <p>The deployable object is not a model. It is a triple: a <b>table</b> carrying | |
| the facts with per-row provenance, editable and versioned without retraining and | |
| bit-identical at every rung; a <b>substrate</b> carrying the judgement — accept, | |
| reject, abstain, cite — large enough for the polarity half; and a <b>rung</b>, a | |
| measured choice with a measured cliff, printed on the card next to the win.</p> | |
| <p>Config rules are per-vertical because retrieval geometry is: topic-diverse | |
| corpora want a wide candidate pool with top-1 and no tiebreak; narrow corpora | |
| want a narrow pool with top-3, and measured <em>worse</em> at the wider setting. | |
| The optimisation question changes accordingly — not <em>how small can the model | |
| be</em>, but <em>which half of the problem am I fixing</em>.</p> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">7</span>At scale, and where to go next</h2> | |
| <p class="lead">The measurements above were taken at 0.3B–8B on one 6 GB GPU. | |
| This section separates what they <em>predict</em> at scale from what remains | |
| open, and names the experiments the hypothesis most needs. Everything here is | |
| intended as open-source knowledge: the harness is released so each item can be | |
| run, checked, or falsified by someone else.</p> | |
| <h3>7.1 What the dose window predicts for large-model practice</h3> | |
| <p>If windows widen with scale — and P1 is confirmed at only one size pair — | |
| two consequences follow for fine-tuning at scale. First, targeted behavioural | |
| patching should become relatively cheaper as models grow: a pulse-then-re-lock | |
| curriculum sized against a damage ledger, rather than category data mixed into | |
| the base mixture. Second, multi-teacher consolidation should weight anchor | |
| replay by measured per-category damage — the DA-OPD anchor term, equation (3) — | |
| rather than uniformly. Both are extrapolations from the measured interval, not | |
| results.</p> | |
| <h3>7.2 What the calibration result changes at serving scale</h3> | |
| <p>Build the importance matrix from deployment-domain text, not a generic | |
| corpus, and ship quantisation rungs as measured pairs with their table. The | |
| measured rungs: calibrated 2-bit at parity with Q4 at 73% of the size on one | |
| dense substrate, and 92–93% retention at 2 bits on one MoE. If the MoE result | |
| holds across the class, 2-bit MoE serving is roughly a further 40% memory | |
| reduction at near-parity — the cheapest untested capacity lever in this | |
| paper.</p> | |
| <h3>7.3 What the division of labour changes about knowledge management</h3> | |
| <p>Perishable knowledge belongs in tables, not weights: per-vertical tables of | |
| roughly a thousand facts with per-row provenance, refreshed without retraining. | |
| The self-populating pipeline — search, distill a cited fact, answer — measured | |
| 0.800 against a 0.000 control on post-cutoff questions, at n = 5: a | |
| demonstration, not a result. Private enterprise knowledge is the axis on which | |
| external tables <em>compose with</em> rather than compete against large | |
| n-gram-table architectures: those tables freeze at pretraining; | |
| runtime-editable tables with provenance are structurally absent from | |
| them.</p> | |
| <h3>7.4 An open agenda</h3> | |
| <p>The experiments this hypothesis most needs, in the order a small team can | |
| run them:</p> | |
| <ol> | |
| <li><b>Scale test.</b> The same pulse / re-lock pair at 7B–14B: two arms | |
| decide whether <code>W_harm</code> keeps widening.</li> | |
| <li><b>Mechanism test.</b> Gradient cosine similarity between category | |
| batches during the pulse — the causal test the correlation matrix in | |
| Figure 3b cannot substitute for.</li> | |
| <li><b>Public replication.</b> The calibration finding on a | |
| generation-based public bench, with the imatrix corpora published.</li> | |
| <li><b>Conflict-aware distillation.</b> The named residual: two facts, same | |
| topic, different numbers — keep the document-pinned one.</li> | |
| <li><b>Multi-seed the headline cells</b> and report paired intervals; | |
| several single-run cells here are point estimates.</li> | |
| <li><b>Instrument mirrors.</b> Publish public versions of the frozen | |
| instruments — fresh items, same generators — so results are reproducible | |
| without contaminating the private sets.</li> | |
| </ol> | |
| <div class="box good"> | |
| <span class="lbl">Open source</span> | |
| <p>The evaluation harness, corpus builders, retrieval pipeline, and | |
| command-line tooling described here are released as open source at | |
| <a href="https://github.com/chadstthomas-svg/cowork-cli" | |
| >github.com/chadstthomas-svg/cowork-cli</a>, together with the | |
| frozen-instrument generators. Licenses: code Apache-2.0; catalog sources | |
| CC-BY-4.0; NLI grader MIT; training corpus under the Tablinum Dataset | |
| License v1.0. Every number recomputes from a committed run record — the | |
| intent is that you can check, and falsify.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">8</span>Method rules this program adopted</h2> | |
| <ol> | |
| <li><b>Freeze instruments before training.</b> A published evaluation set | |
| becomes a training set.</li> | |
| <li><b>Run a shortcut check on every new instrument.</b> A trivial baseline | |
| above 0.90 means the instrument measures the shortcut.</li> | |
| <li><b>Pair every condition with a control.</b> An uplift without a baseline is | |
| not a result.</li> | |
| <li><b>Report per-polarity.</b> Reject and affirm are never blended.</li> | |
| <li><b>Structure-true testing.</b> No pattern crosses an architecture class | |
| without its own cell; a cross-structure pattern may reflect the corpus rather | |
| than the architecture.</li> | |
| <li><b>A custom grader is a hypothesis until probed.</b> Grade the grader.</li> | |
| <li><b>Read the generations, not the exit codes.</b></li> | |
| <li><b>Smoke gates check speed, not just completion.</b> A gate that passed at | |
| 150 s/step implied a 47-hour run.</li> | |
| <li><b>Within-server comparisons are robust; absolute values across server | |
| restarts are not.</b> Ship the comparison, annotate the absolute.</li> | |
| <li><b>State the failure mode next to the win.</b></li> | |
| </ol> | |
| </section> | |
| <!-- ================================================================= --> | |
| <section> | |
| <h2><span class="n">9</span>What remains unestablished</h2> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><b>Production-scale quality assurance.</b> Whether a ≥2B substrate with a | |
| fixed table clears 0.9 on genuinely real-world questions is predicted, not | |
| measured. The deciding cell has not run.</li> | |
| <li><b>Below calibrated 2-bit.</b> The cliff is measured on two architecture | |
| classes; whether some class has cheaper redundancy is untested.</li> | |
| <li><b>Domain generality.</b> One successful transfer on the model leg is a | |
| data point. The method's behaviour on a domain with different retrieval | |
| geometry is unknown.</li> | |
| <li><b>Conflict.</b> The named residual — two facts, same topic, different | |
| numbers — has no measured solution. Conflict-aware distillation is a | |
| proposal.</li> | |
| <li><b>Cross-lineage anchoring.</b> Same-initialisation self-anchoring is | |
| measured; anchoring a student to a different lineage's checkpoint is not.</li> | |
| <li><b>The causal reading of the interference matrix.</b> The correlation | |
| structure in Figure 3b is descriptive across eight sequentially selected runs. | |
| Gradient-level measurement is the named test and has not been run.</li> | |
| </ul> | |
| </section> | |
| <footer> | |
| <p><span class="mark">TABLINUM</span></p> | |
| <p>Every number here recomputes from a committed run record. Instruments are | |
| frozen; controls are paired. Code and harness are open source; this paper | |
| is intended to be reused, extended, and falsified.</p> | |
| </footer> | |
| </div> | |
| </body> | |
| </html> | |