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* performance heatmap (Simpson's paradox surface), paired transition matrix,
* significance CI plot, feature parity ranked deltas. */
import Box from '@mui/material/Box';
import Chip from '@mui/material/Chip';
import Tooltip from '@mui/material/Tooltip';
import Typography from '@mui/material/Typography';
import {
BORDER,
DeltaBar,
Explainer,
KV,
PsiBadge,
SectionCard,
StatusPill,
tableSx,
} from './common';
// ------------------------------------------------ stage 3: distribution shift
export function ShiftView({ data }: { data: any }) {
if (data.volume_ok === false) {
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard title="Distribution shift">
<Typography variant="body2" sx={{ color: '#ffb74d' }}>
Too little data to assess shift: PSI estimates are upward-biased at
this volume, so shift can be neither confirmed nor excluded. This
is itself a finding — record it and proceed with the unknown
acknowledged.
</Typography>
</SectionCard>
</>
);
}
const renderRows = (rows: any[]) => (
<Box component="table" sx={tableSx}>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Dimension</th>
<th>PSI (practical effect)</th>
<th>JS div</th>
<th>Test</th>
<th>p-value (see caveat)</th>
<th>Means (off → sh)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{rows.map((r: any) => (
<tr key={r.dimension}>
<td style={{ fontWeight: 600 }}>{r.dimension}</td>
<td><PsiBadge psi={r.psi} /></td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{r.js.toFixed(3)}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{r.test}={r.stat.toFixed(2)}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', color: r.p_value < 0.05 ? '#ffb74d' : '#8a949e' }}>
{r.p_value < 0.001 ? '<0.001' : r.p_value.toFixed(3)}
</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontSize: 11 }}>
{r.offline_mean !== undefined
? `${r.offline_mean.toFixed(1)} → ${r.shadow_mean.toFixed(1)}`
: '—'}
</td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
);
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard title="Population mix (segment dimensions)">
{renderRows(data.segments)}
</SectionCard>
<SectionCard title="Feature distributions" subtitle="An isolated large shift in ONE feature while segment mixes stay stable points at a pipeline artifact, not a population change — cross-check with Feature Parity (stage 7).">
{renderRows(data.features)}
</SectionCard>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#ffb74d' }}>
⚠ {data.caveat}
</Typography>
</>
);
}
// ------------------------------------------ stage 4: conditional performance
function heatColor(v: number, cap = 12): string {
const t = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, v / cap));
if (t >= 0) {
const a = Math.round(40 + t * 150);
return `rgba(102, 187, 106, ${a / 255})`;
}
const a = Math.round(40 + -t * 170);
return `rgba(239, 83, 80, ${a / 255})`;
}
export function ConditionalHeatmapView({ data }: { data: any }) {
const rows: any[] = data.rows;
const scenes = Array.from(new Set(rows.map((r) => r.scene))).sort();
const times = Array.from(new Set(rows.map((r) => r.time_of_day))).sort();
const cell = (scene: string, tod: string) => rows.find((r) => r.scene === scene && r.time_of_day === tod);
const grid = (which: 'offline_delta_pp' | 'shadow_delta_pp', title: string) => (
<Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 800, color: '#aab4be', display: 'block', mb: 0.5 }}>
{title}
</Typography>
<Box component="table" sx={{ borderCollapse: 'collapse' }}>
<thead>
<tr>
<th />
{times.map((t) => (
<Box component="th" key={t} sx={{ fontSize: 11, color: '#8a949e', px: 1, pb: 0.5 }}>{t}</Box>
))}
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{scenes.map((s) => (
<tr key={s}>
<Box component="td" sx={{ fontSize: 11, color: '#8a949e', pr: 1, textAlign: 'right' }}>{s}</Box>
{times.map((t) => {
const c = cell(s, t);
const v = c ? c[which] : 0;
return (
<td key={t}>
<Tooltip
arrow
title={c ? `${s}/${t}: offline ${c.offline_delta_pp.toFixed(1)}pp · shadow ${c.shadow_delta_pp.toFixed(1)}pp · n=${c.shadow_n} · ${c.interpretation}` : ''}
>
<Box
sx={{
width: 86,
height: 40,
m: 0.25,
borderRadius: 1,
display: 'flex',
alignItems: 'center',
justifyContent: 'center',
bgcolor: heatColor(v),
border: c?.interpretation === 'sign_flip' ? '2px dashed #ffb74d' : `1px solid ${BORDER}`,
fontFamily: 'monospace',
fontSize: 12,
fontWeight: 700,
}}
>
{v >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{v.toFixed(1)}
</Box>
</Tooltip>
</td>
);
})}
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
</Box>
);
const agg = data.aggregate;
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard
title="Segment performance heatmap (B − A, pp)"
subtitle="Dashed amber border = sign flip between environments. If per-segment colors AGREE while the aggregates disagree, the mix — not the model — flipped the sign (Simpson's paradox)."
>
<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 5, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
{grid('offline_delta_pp', `OFFLINE (aggregate ${agg.offline_delta_pp >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${agg.offline_delta_pp.toFixed(1)}pp)`)}
{grid('shadow_delta_pp', `SHADOW (aggregate ${agg.shadow_delta_pp >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${agg.shadow_delta_pp.toFixed(1)}pp)`)}
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e', display: 'block', mt: 1 }}>
Within-segment sign consistency: {(agg.sign_consistency * 100).toFixed(0)}% of scored volume.
</Typography>
</SectionCard>
<SectionCard title="Segment detail">
<Box component="table" sx={tableSx}>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Segment</th><th>Offline Δ</th><th>Shadow Δ</th><th>Vol (off/sh)</th><th>Shift ×</th><th>Interpretation</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{rows.map((r) => (
<tr key={r.segment}>
<td style={{ fontWeight: 600 }}>{r.segment}</td>
<td><DeltaBar value={r.offline_delta_pp} max={18} width={100} /></td>
<td><DeltaBar value={r.shadow_delta_pp} max={18} width={100} /></td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontSize: 11 }}>{r.offline_n}/{r.shadow_n}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{r.shift_ratio.toFixed(2)}</td>
<td>
<Chip size="small" label={r.interpretation} sx={{
height: 18, fontSize: 10,
bgcolor: r.interpretation === 'sign_flip' ? '#ffb74d22' : '#232a31',
color: r.interpretation === 'sign_flip' ? '#ffb74d' : '#aab4be',
}} />
</td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
</SectionCard>
</>
);
}
// ------------------------------------------------ stage 5: paired comparison
function TransitionMatrix({ m, title }: { m: any; title: string }) {
const cellSx = (bg: string, color: string) => ({
width: 130, height: 62, borderRadius: 1, m: 0.25, p: 1,
bgcolor: bg, border: `1px solid ${BORDER}`,
display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', justifyContent: 'center', color,
});
return (
<Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 800, color: '#aab4be' }}>{title} (n={m.n.toLocaleString()})</Typography>
<Box sx={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: 'auto auto auto', alignItems: 'center', mt: 0.5 }}>
<Box />
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ textAlign: 'center', color: '#8a949e' }}>B correct</Typography>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ textAlign: 'center', color: '#8a949e' }}>B incorrect</Typography>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e', pr: 0.5 }}>A correct</Typography>
<Box sx={cellSx('#20302144', '#a5d6a7')}>
<Typography variant="caption">both correct</Typography>
<Typography sx={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontWeight: 800 }}>{m.both_correct.toLocaleString()}</Typography>
</Box>
<Box sx={cellSx('#ef535022', '#ef9a9a')}>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>REGRESSIONS ↓</Typography>
<Typography sx={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontWeight: 800 }}>{m.regressions.toLocaleString()}</Typography>
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e', pr: 0.5 }}>A incorrect</Typography>
<Box sx={cellSx('#66bb6a22', '#a5d6a7')}>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>improvements ↑</Typography>
<Typography sx={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontWeight: 800 }}>{m.improvements.toLocaleString()}</Typography>
</Box>
<Box sx={cellSx('#232a3155', '#90a4ae')}>
<Typography variant="caption">both wrong</Typography>
<Typography sx={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontWeight: 800 }}>{m.both_wrong.toLocaleString()}</Typography>
</Box>
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e' }}>net {m.net_pp >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{m.net_pp.toFixed(1)}pp</Typography>
</Box>
);
}
export function PairedTransitionView({ data }: { data: any }) {
const drill = (rows: any[], label: string) => (
<SectionCard title={`Transitions by ${label}`}>
<Box component="table" sx={tableSx}>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>{label}</th><th>Regressions (A✓→B✗)</th><th>Improvements (A✗→B✓)</th>
{rows[0]?.lift !== undefined ? <th>Unit share</th> : null}
{rows[0]?.lift !== undefined ? <th>Regression lift</th> : null}
<th>Net</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{rows.map((r) => (
<tr key={r.segment}>
<td style={{ fontWeight: 600, fontFamily: r.segment.startsWith('[') ? 'monospace' : undefined }}>{r.segment}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', color: '#ef9a9a' }}>{r.regressions}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', color: '#a5d6a7' }}>{r.improvements}</td>
{r.lift !== undefined ? <td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{(r.unit_share * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td> : null}
{r.lift !== undefined ? (
<td>
<Chip size="small" label={`${r.lift.toFixed(1)}×`} sx={{
height: 18, fontSize: 10, fontWeight: 700,
bgcolor: r.lift >= 1.5 ? '#ef535022' : '#232a31',
color: r.lift >= 1.5 ? '#ef5350' : '#aab4be',
}} />
</td>
) : null}
<td><DeltaBar value={r.net_pp} max={15} width={90} /></td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
</SectionCard>
);
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard title="Error-transition matrix — same units, both models">
<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 6, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
<TransitionMatrix m={data.shadow} title="SHADOW (scored sample)" />
<TransitionMatrix m={data.offline} title="OFFLINE (eval set)" />
</Box>
</SectionCard>
{drill(data.by_band, `serving-confidence band (${data.conf_col})`)}
{drill(data.by_segment, 'segment')}
{drill(data.by_class, 'object class')}
</>
);
}
// ---------------------------------------------------- stage 6: significance
function CiPlot({ res, marginPp }: { res: any; marginPp: number }) {
// Scale: pp values mapped onto an SVG x-axis.
const w = 560; const h = 90;
const lo = Math.min(res.ci_low * 100, -marginPp) - 1.2;
const hi = Math.max(res.ci_high * 100, marginPp) + 1.2;
const x = (v: number) => ((v - lo) / (hi - lo)) * (w - 40) + 20;
const y = 38;
return (
<svg width={w} height={h}>
{/* practical-regression zone */}
<rect x={20} y={y - 16} width={x(-marginPp) - 20} height={32} fill="#ef5350" opacity={0.10} />
<line x1={x(-marginPp)} y1={y - 22} x2={x(-marginPp)} y2={y + 22} stroke="#ef5350" strokeDasharray="4 3" />
<text x={x(-marginPp)} y={y - 26} fill="#ef9a9a" fontSize={10} textAnchor="middle">
−{marginPp.toFixed(1)}pp practical margin
</text>
<line x1={x(0)} y1={y - 22} x2={x(0)} y2={y + 22} stroke="#5c666f" />
<text x={x(0)} y={y + 34} fill="#8a949e" fontSize={10} textAnchor="middle">0</text>
{/* CI */}
<line x1={x(res.ci_low * 100)} y1={y} x2={x(res.ci_high * 100)} y2={y} stroke="#4fc3f7" strokeWidth={4} strokeLinecap="round" />
<circle cx={x(res.delta * 100)} cy={y} r={5.5} fill="#4fc3f7" />
<text x={x(res.delta * 100)} y={y + 20} fill="#4fc3f7" fontSize={11} textAnchor="middle" fontFamily="monospace">
{res.delta * 100 >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{(res.delta * 100).toFixed(2)}pp
</text>
<text x={x(res.ci_low * 100)} y={y - 10} fill="#8a949e" fontSize={10} textAnchor="middle" fontFamily="monospace">
{(res.ci_low * 100).toFixed(2)}
</text>
<text x={x(res.ci_high * 100)} y={y - 10} fill="#8a949e" fontSize={10} textAnchor="middle" fontFamily="monospace">
{(res.ci_high * 100).toFixed(2)}
</text>
</svg>
);
}
const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, { label: string; color: string }> = {
significant_regression: { label: 'SIGNIFICANT REGRESSION', color: '#ef5350' },
no_significant_difference: { label: 'NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE', color: '#66bb6a' },
insufficient_evidence: { label: 'INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE', color: '#ffb74d' },
};
export function SignificanceView({ data }: { data: any }) {
const o = OUTCOME_LABEL[data.outcome];
const sp = data.shadow_paired;
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard
title="Paired shadow delta vs practical-significance margin"
action={<Chip size="small" label={o.label} sx={{ fontWeight: 800, bgcolor: `${o.color}22`, color: o.color, border: `1px solid ${o.color}66` }} />}
>
<CiPlot res={sp} marginPp={data.practical_margin_pp} />
<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 4, flexWrap: 'wrap', mt: 1 }}>
<KV k="Units / clusters" v={`${sp.n.toLocaleString()} / ${sp.n_clusters.toLocaleString()}`} />
<KV k="ICC (paired diffs)" v={sp.icc.toFixed(3)} />
<KV k="Design effect" v={sp.design_effect.toFixed(2)} />
<KV k="Effective n" v={sp.effective_n.toLocaleString()} />
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e', display: 'block', mt: 0.5 }}>
Engine: {data.engine} — {data.engine_note}
</Typography>
</SectionCard>
{data.seqeval ? (
<SectionCard title="Anytime-valid complement (sensorflow.seqeval)">
<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 4, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
<KV k="Sequential decision" v={<StatusPill status={data.seqeval.decision === 'REGRESSION' ? 'MISMATCH' : data.seqeval.decision === 'PASS' ? 'PASS' : 'UNKNOWN'} />} />
<KV k="Confidence sequence" v={`[${(data.seqeval.delta_ci[0] * 100).toFixed(2)}, ${(data.seqeval.delta_ci[1] * 100).toFixed(2)}]pp`} />
<KV k="e-value (regression)" v={data.seqeval.e_regression} />
<KV k="P(regression | data)" v={data.seqeval.bayes_p_regression ?? '—'} />
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#8a949e' }}>{data.seqeval.note}</Typography>
</SectionCard>
) : null}
<SectionCard title="Per-model accuracy (Wilson 95% CI)">
<Box component="table" sx={tableSx}>
<thead>
<tr><th>Measurement</th><th>Rate</th><th>95% CI</th><th>n</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{Object.entries(data.wilson as Record<string, any>).map(([k, v]) => (
<tr key={k}>
<td style={{ fontWeight: 600 }}>{k.replace('_', ' · model ')}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{(v.rate * 100).toFixed(2)}%</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>[{(v.ci_low * 100).toFixed(2)}, {(v.ci_high * 100).toFixed(2)}]</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{v.n.toLocaleString()}</td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
</SectionCard>
</>
);
}
// --------------------------------------------------- stage 7: feature parity
export function FeatureParityView({ data }: { data: any }) {
const maxSmd = Math.max(...data.rows.map((r: any) => r.within_segment_smd), 1);
return (
<>
<Explainer text={data.explainer} />
<SectionCard
title="Feature parity — ranked by within-segment SMD"
subtitle="Within-segment standardized mean difference controls for population mix: a value that still differs INSIDE matched segments is a pipeline difference, not a world change."
>
<Box component="table" sx={tableSx}>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Feature</th><th>Within-segment SMD</th><th>Raw SMD</th>
<th>Mean (off → sh)</th><th>Median ratio</th><th>Missing (off / sh)</th><th>Verdict</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{data.rows.map((r: any) => (
<tr key={r.feature} style={r.skew_flag ? { background: '#ef535011' } : undefined}>
<td style={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>{r.feature}</td>
<td>
<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75 }}>
<Box sx={{ width: 130, height: 9, bgcolor: '#0d1116', borderRadius: 1, border: `1px solid ${BORDER}` }}>
<Box sx={{
width: `${Math.min(100, (r.within_segment_smd / maxSmd) * 100)}%`,
height: '100%',
bgcolor: r.skew_flag ? '#ef5350' : '#4fc3f7',
borderRadius: 1,
}} />
</Box>
<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{r.within_segment_smd.toFixed(2)}</Typography>
</Box>
</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{r.smd.toFixed(2)}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontSize: 11 }}>{r.offline_mean.toFixed(1)} → {r.shadow_mean.toFixed(1)}</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontWeight: r.skew_flag ? 800 : 400, color: r.skew_flag ? '#ef5350' : undefined }}>
×{r.median_ratio.toFixed(2)}
</td>
<td style={{ fontFamily: 'monospace', fontSize: 11 }}>
{(r.offline_missing * 100).toFixed(1)}% / {(r.shadow_missing * 100).toFixed(1)}%
</td>
<td><StatusPill status={r.skew_flag ? 'MISMATCH' : 'PASS'} /></td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</Box>
</SectionCard>
</>
);
}
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