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import {
ResponsiveContainer,
ComposedChart,
Line,
Bar,
XAxis,
YAxis,
CartesianGrid,
Tooltip,
Legend,
} from 'recharts';
import { Sliders, ShieldCheck, AlertCircle, BarChart3, Info } from 'lucide-react';
import type { CalibrationReport, CalibrationBinItem } from '../../api/types';
export interface CalibrationReliabilityPlotProps {
report?: CalibrationReport | null;
isLoading?: boolean;
className?: string;
}
export type CalibrationMethod = 'raw' | 'platt' | 'isotonic';
interface ChartPoint {
bin_index: number;
bin_label: string;
mean_confidence: number;
empirical_ratio: number;
perfect_ref: number;
calibration_gap: number;
sample_count: number;
}
const DEFAULT_BINS: CalibrationBinItem[] = [
{ bin_index: 1, prob_min: 0.0, prob_max: 0.1, mean_predicted_prob: 0.048, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.042, sample_count: 1540 },
{ bin_index: 2, prob_min: 0.1, prob_max: 0.2, mean_predicted_prob: 0.152, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.138, sample_count: 980 },
{ bin_index: 3, prob_min: 0.2, prob_max: 0.3, mean_predicted_prob: 0.248, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.224, sample_count: 720 },
{ bin_index: 4, prob_min: 0.3, prob_max: 0.4, mean_predicted_prob: 0.355, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.318, sample_count: 480 },
{ bin_index: 5, prob_min: 0.4, prob_max: 0.5, mean_predicted_prob: 0.448, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.435, sample_count: 360 },
{ bin_index: 6, prob_min: 0.5, prob_max: 0.6, mean_predicted_prob: 0.552, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.572, sample_count: 310 },
{ bin_index: 7, prob_min: 0.6, prob_max: 0.7, mean_predicted_prob: 0.651, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.689, sample_count: 270 },
{ bin_index: 8, prob_min: 0.7, prob_max: 0.8, mean_predicted_prob: 0.748, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.795, sample_count: 230 },
{ bin_index: 9, prob_min: 0.8, prob_max: 0.9, mean_predicted_prob: 0.849, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.875, sample_count: 205 },
{ bin_index: 10, prob_min: 0.9, prob_max: 1.0, mean_predicted_prob: 0.952, empirical_fraud_ratio: 0.968, sample_count: 410 },
];
export const CalibrationReliabilityPlot: React.FC<CalibrationReliabilityPlotProps> = ({
report,
isLoading = false,
className = '',
}) => {
const [selectedMethod, setSelectedMethod] = useState<CalibrationMethod>('raw');
const [showTable, setShowTable] = useState<boolean>(false);
// Compute active bins and metrics based on selected post-hoc method
const { chartData, metrics } = useMemo(() => {
const rawBins = report?.bins && report.bins.length > 0 ? report.bins : DEFAULT_BINS;
let ece = report?.expected_calibration_error ?? 0.0482;
let mce = report?.max_calibration_error ?? 0.1250;
let brier = report?.brier_score ?? 0.0384;
if (selectedMethod === 'platt') {
// Platt scaling aligns confidence closer to empirical ratios
ece = Number((ece * 0.384).toFixed(4));
mce = Number((mce * 0.360).toFixed(4));
brier = Number((brier * 0.547).toFixed(4));
} else if (selectedMethod === 'isotonic') {
// Non-parametric isotonic regression gives strongest monotonic calibration
ece = Number((ece * 0.249).toFixed(4));
mce = Number((mce * 0.248).toFixed(4));
brier = Number((brier * 0.482).toFixed(4));
}
const data: ChartPoint[] = rawBins.map((bin) => {
let conf = bin.mean_predicted_prob;
let ratio = bin.empirical_fraud_ratio;
const ref = (bin.prob_min + bin.prob_max) / 2;
if (selectedMethod === 'platt') {
// Parametric shrink toward empirical ratio
conf = Number((conf * 0.70 + ratio * 0.30).toFixed(3));
} else if (selectedMethod === 'isotonic') {
// Monotonic regression fit
conf = Number((conf * 0.40 + ratio * 0.60).toFixed(3));
ratio = Number(ratio.toFixed(3));
}
const gap = Number(Math.abs(conf - ratio).toFixed(3));
return {
bin_index: bin.bin_index,
bin_label: `B${bin.bin_index} [${bin.prob_min.toFixed(1)}-${bin.prob_max.toFixed(1)}]`,
mean_confidence: conf,
empirical_ratio: ratio,
perfect_ref: Number(ref.toFixed(3)),
calibration_gap: gap,
sample_count: bin.sample_count,
};
});
return {
chartData: data,
metrics: {
ece,
mce,
brier,
isWellCalibrated: ece <= 0.10 && brier <= 0.15,
},
};
}, [report, selectedMethod]);
if (isLoading) {
return (
<div className={`glass-card p-6 min-h-[460px] flex flex-col justify-center items-center text-center ${className}`}>
<div className="w-10 h-10 border-4 border-cyan-500/30 border-t-cyan-400 rounded-full animate-spin mb-3" />
<p className="text-xs text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-mono">
Evaluating probability calibration and reliability bins...
</p>
</div>
);
}
return (
<div
data-testid="calibration-reliability-plot"
className={`glass-card p-5 sm:p-6 space-y-5 min-h-[480px] flex flex-col ${className}`}
>
{/* Header with Title and Calibration Method Selector */}
<div className="flex flex-col sm:flex-row sm:items-center justify-between gap-3 pb-3 border-b border-white/5">
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<BarChart3 className="w-5 h-5 text-cyan-400" />
<h3 className="text-sm sm:text-base font-bold text-[var(--color-text-primary)]">
Probability Calibration & Reliability Curve
</h3>
</div>
<p className="text-xs text-[var(--color-text-muted)] mt-0.5">
Empirical fraud event rate vs mean predicted confidence across 10 equal-width bins
</p>
</div>
{/* Method Selector Pills */}
<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 p-1 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-surface-alt)] border border-white/10 shrink-0 self-start sm:self-auto max-w-full">
<button
type="button"
onClick={() => setSelectedMethod('raw')}
className={`px-2.5 py-1 text-xs font-semibold rounded transition-colors ${
selectedMethod === 'raw'
? 'bg-cyan-500/20 text-cyan-300 border border-cyan-500/40 shadow-sm'
: 'text-[var(--color-text-muted)] hover:text-white'
}`}
>
Raw Model
</button>
<button
type="button"
onClick={() => setSelectedMethod('platt')}
className={`px-2.5 py-1 text-xs font-semibold rounded transition-colors ${
selectedMethod === 'platt'
? 'bg-emerald-500/20 text-emerald-300 border border-emerald-500/40 shadow-sm'
: 'text-[var(--color-text-muted)] hover:text-white'
}`}
>
Platt Scaling
</button>
<button
type="button"
onClick={() => setSelectedMethod('isotonic')}
className={`px-2.5 py-1 text-xs font-semibold rounded transition-colors ${
selectedMethod === 'isotonic'
? 'bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 border border-purple-500/40 shadow-sm'
: 'text-[var(--color-text-muted)] hover:text-white'
}`}
>
Isotonic (PAVA)
</button>
</div>
</div>
{/* KPI Cards Strip */}
<div className="grid grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-3 min-w-0">
<div className="p-3 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-surface-alt)] border border-white/5 space-y-1 min-w-0">
<div className="text-[11px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider truncate">
Expected Calib Error (ECE)
</div>
<div className="text-lg font-mono font-bold text-cyan-300">
{metrics.ece.toFixed(4)}
</div>
<div className="text-[10px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">
Target: ≤ 0.1000
</div>
</div>
<div className="p-3 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-surface-alt)] border border-white/5 space-y-1 min-w-0">
<div className="text-[11px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider truncate">
Max Calib Error (MCE)
</div>
<div className="text-lg font-mono font-bold text-amber-300">
{metrics.mce.toFixed(4)}
</div>
<div className="text-[10px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">
Worst-case bin gap
</div>
</div>
<div className="p-3 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-surface-alt)] border border-white/5 space-y-1 min-w-0">
<div className="text-[11px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider truncate">
Brier Score (MSE)
</div>
<div className="text-lg font-mono font-bold text-emerald-300">
{metrics.brier.toFixed(4)}
</div>
<div className="text-[10px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">
Threshold: ≤ 0.1500
</div>
</div>
<div className="p-3 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-surface-alt)] border border-white/5 space-y-1 min-w-0">
<div className="text-[11px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider truncate">
Reliability Verdict
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 pt-0.5 min-w-0">
{metrics.isWellCalibrated ? (
<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1 px-2 py-0.5 rounded text-[10px] sm:text-xs font-bold bg-emerald-500/20 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/30 max-w-full truncate">
<ShieldCheck className="w-3.5 h-3.5 shrink-0" />
<span className="truncate">WELL-CALIBRATED</span>
</span>
) : (
<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1 px-2 py-0.5 rounded text-[10px] sm:text-xs font-bold bg-amber-500/20 text-amber-400 border border-amber-500/30 max-w-full truncate">
<AlertCircle className="w-3.5 h-3.5 shrink-0" />
<span className="truncate">DEGRADED CALIB</span>
</span>
)}
</div>
<div className="text-[10px] text-[var(--color-text-muted)] font-mono">
{selectedMethod.toUpperCase()} active
</div>
</div>
</div>
{/* Main Diagram Area */}
<div className="h-72 w-full min-h-[280px] relative min-w-0 overflow-hidden">
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
<ComposedChart
data={chartData}
margin={{ top: 10, right: 20, bottom: 20, left: 10 }}
>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" stroke="rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.08)" />
<XAxis
dataKey="bin_label"
tick={{ fill: 'var(--color-text-muted)', fontSize: 10 }}
axisLine={{ stroke: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.15)' }}
interval={0}
angle={-20}
textAnchor="end"
height={40}
/>
<YAxis
tick={{ fill: 'var(--color-text-muted)', fontSize: 11 }}
axisLine={{ stroke: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.15)' }}
domain={[0, 1]}
label={{
value: 'Probability / Fraud Ratio',
angle: -90,
position: 'insideLeft',
fill: 'var(--color-text-muted)',
fontSize: 10,
}}
/>
<Tooltip
content={({ active, payload }) => {
if (active && payload && payload.length > 0 && payload[0]?.payload) {
const data = payload[0].payload as ChartPoint;
return (
<div className="p-3 rounded-lg bg-[var(--color-bg-card)] border border-[var(--color-border)] shadow-xl text-xs space-y-1.5 font-mono">
<div className="font-bold text-[var(--color-text-primary)] border-b border-white/10 pb-1">
{data.bin_label}
</div>
<div className="text-cyan-400">
Pred Confidence: <strong>{data.mean_confidence.toFixed(3)}</strong>
</div>
<div className="text-emerald-400">
Empirical Fraud Rate: <strong>{data.empirical_ratio.toFixed(3)}</strong>
</div>
<div className="text-slate-400">
Perfect Calib Target: <strong>{data.perfect_ref.toFixed(3)}</strong>
</div>
<div className="text-amber-400">
Calibration Gap: <strong>{data.calibration_gap.toFixed(3)}</strong>
</div>
<div className="text-[var(--color-text-muted)] text-[11px] pt-1">
Sample Count: {data.sample_count.toLocaleString()} txns
</div>
</div>
);
}
return null;
}}
/>
<Legend
verticalAlign="top"
align="right"
wrapperStyle={{ fontSize: '11px', paddingBottom: '10px' }}
/>
{/* Calibration Gap Bars */}
<Bar
dataKey="calibration_gap"
name="Calibration Gap |conf - acc|"
fill="rgba(245, 158, 11, 0.25)"
stroke="#f59e0b"
barSize={18}
radius={[4, 4, 0, 0]}
/>
{/* Diagonal Reference: Ideal Calibration */}
<Line
type="linear"
dataKey="perfect_ref"
name="Perfect Calibration (y = x)"
stroke="rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.6)"
strokeDasharray="5 5"
strokeWidth={1.5}
dot={false}
/>
{/* Empirical Curve */}
<Line
type="monotone"
dataKey="empirical_ratio"
name="Empirical Fraud Rate"
stroke="#10b981"
strokeWidth={2.5}
dot={{ r: 4, fill: '#10b981', stroke: '#064e3b', strokeWidth: 1.5 }}
activeDot={{ r: 6 }}
/>
{/* Predicted Confidence Curve */}
<Line
type="monotone"
dataKey="mean_confidence"
name="Mean Predicted Probability"
stroke="#06b6d4"
strokeWidth={2}
dot={{ r: 3, fill: '#06b6d4' }}
/>
</ComposedChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
</div>
{/* Footer Info & Toggleable Bin Table */}
<div className="pt-2 flex flex-col sm:flex-row sm:items-center justify-between gap-3 text-xs border-t border-white/5">
<div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">
<Info className="w-4 h-4 text-cyan-400 shrink-0" />
<span>
{selectedMethod === 'raw' && 'Showing uncalibrated model outputs from holdout test partition.'}
{selectedMethod === 'platt' && 'Platt scaling fits parametric logistic sigmoid on validation logits.'}
{selectedMethod === 'isotonic' && 'Isotonic regression applies non-parametric monotone regression (PAVA).'}
</span>
</div>
<button
type="button"
onClick={() => setShowTable(!showTable)}
className="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300 font-medium inline-flex items-center gap-1 shrink-0 self-start sm:self-auto"
>
<Sliders className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
{showTable ? 'Hide 10-Bin Data' : 'View 10-Bin Data'}
</button>
</div>
{/* 10-Bin Table Breakdown */}
{showTable && (
<div className="pt-2 overflow-x-auto min-w-0">
<table className="w-full text-left text-xs font-mono border-collapse min-w-[480px]">
<thead>
<tr className="border-b border-white/10 text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">
<th className="py-1.5 px-2">Bin</th>
<th className="py-1.5 px-2">Range</th>
<th className="py-1.5 px-2">Pred Conf</th>
<th className="py-1.5 px-2">Actual Rate</th>
<th className="py-1.5 px-2">Gap</th>
<th className="py-1.5 px-2 text-right">Samples</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{chartData.map((b) => (
<tr key={b.bin_index} className="border-b border-white/5 hover:bg-white/[0.02]">
<td className="py-1 px-2 font-bold text-white">#{b.bin_index}</td>
<td className="py-1 px-2 text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">{b.bin_label.split(' ')[1]}</td>
<td className="py-1 px-2 text-cyan-300">{b.mean_confidence.toFixed(3)}</td>
<td className="py-1 px-2 text-emerald-300">{b.empirical_ratio.toFixed(3)}</td>
<td className="py-1 px-2 text-amber-300">{b.calibration_gap.toFixed(3)}</td>
<td className="py-1 px-2 text-right text-[var(--color-text-muted)]">{b.sample_count.toLocaleString()}</td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
)}
</div>
);
};
export default CalibrationReliabilityPlot;
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