| { |
| "description": "HES models of the shock experiment (E1), replication 0, trained on simulated daily exports of scenario S1, 2010-01-01 to 2019-12-31. Forecasts are for that simulated series.", |
| "paper": "https://thanatchon36.github.io/lockdowns-as-partial-holidays/paper/", |
| "code": "https://github.com/thanatchon36/lockdowns-as-partial-holidays", |
| "dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/lockdowns-as-partial-holidays", |
| "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.24036954", |
| "seed": 0, |
| "scenario": "S1", |
| "train_start": "2010-01-01", |
| "train_end": "2019-12-31", |
| "true_beta_D": -0.7985076962177716, |
| "true_beta_P": -0.2231435513142097, |
| "target": "daily models: log daily exports; monthly models: log average daily exports in the month", |
| "versions": { |
| "prophet": "1.5.0", |
| "lightgbm": "4.7.0", |
| "statsmodels": "0.15.0", |
| "numpy": "2.5.4", |
| "pandas": "3.1.1" |
| }, |
| "models": { |
| "Prophet-D HE": { |
| "kind": "prophet", |
| "file": "prophet_daily_he.json", |
| "regressors": [ |
| "xD", |
| "xP" |
| ], |
| "coef": { |
| "xD": -0.7998731051685039, |
| "xP": -0.21685976937293583 |
| }, |
| "smear": 1.007833304501541 |
| }, |
| "Prophet-M HE": { |
| "kind": "prophet", |
| "file": "prophet_monthly_he.json", |
| "regressors": [ |
| "MxD", |
| "MxP", |
| "WK" |
| ], |
| "coef": { |
| "MxD": -0.6125574883966287, |
| "MxP": -0.2188978962390142, |
| "WK": -0.5309428971851337 |
| }, |
| "smear": 1.000984511397581 |
| }, |
| "Prophet-M HE+AC": { |
| "kind": "correction", |
| "of": "Prophet-M HE", |
| "beta_D": -0.8799999999999999, |
| "beta_P": -0.23999999999999977 |
| }, |
| "SARIMAX HE": { |
| "kind": "sarimax", |
| "file": "sarimax_he.json", |
| "regressors": [ |
| "MxD", |
| "MxP", |
| "WK" |
| ], |
| "coef": { |
| "MxD": -0.7524975449208551, |
| "MxP": -0.2558355442838506, |
| "WK": -0.5099850937908507 |
| }, |
| "smear": 1.0012134417661014, |
| "first_forecast_month": "2020-01" |
| }, |
| "LightGBM-D HE": { |
| "kind": "lightgbm", |
| "file": "lightgbm_daily_he.txt", |
| "features": [ |
| "dow", |
| "doy", |
| "xD", |
| "xP" |
| ], |
| "trend": [ |
| 0.014458772332339529, |
| 6.270988132709264 |
| ], |
| "smear": 1.0076154234429453 |
| }, |
| "LightGBM-M HE": { |
| "kind": "lightgbm", |
| "file": "lightgbm_monthly_he.txt", |
| "features": [ |
| "month", |
| "MxD", |
| "MxP", |
| "WK" |
| ], |
| "trend": [ |
| 0.01466551523052972, |
| 6.312449602330975 |
| ], |
| "smear": 1.0014729941195222 |
| } |
| }, |
| "max_rel_diff_to_paper_run": { |
| "LightGBM-D HE": 7.19268064199258e-15, |
| "LightGBM-M HE": 2.753593668741965e-15, |
| "Prophet-D HE": 0.0012294419769895552, |
| "Prophet-M HE": 0.0017426922672111808, |
| "Prophet-M HE+AC": 0.005367919714673242, |
| "SARIMAX HE": 0.014258936700534174 |
| } |
| } |
