Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
Commit ·
4bc9676
1
Parent(s): b5528c9
phase 74: alpha-1.4 re-tune - wiener weight basin floor .20 (CV 1476.0); other dials orthogonal
Browse files- EXPERIMENTS.md +23 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -3674,3 +3674,26 @@ Phase 73 postscript - dose-response complete: alpha 1.4 -> 1498.3
|
|
| 3674 |
(+47.7). Clear minimum at 1.4; monotone rise beyond. NO second public
|
| 3675 |
A/B per the stopping rule. FINAL: select 62e9d91 (1480.85); fallback
|
| 3676 |
4c93883 (1575.31).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3674 |
(+47.7). Clear minimum at 1.4; monotone rise beyond. NO second public
|
| 3675 |
A/B per the stopping rule. FINAL: select 62e9d91 (1480.85); fallback
|
| 3676 |
4c93883 (1575.31).
|
| 3677 |
+
|
| 3678 |
+
## Phase 74 - Re-tune at alpha 1.4 (user-directed): dials orthogonal EXCEPT the wiener weight - basin floor .20 (CV 1476.0, -22.3, 2.0sig)
|
| 3679 |
+
|
| 3680 |
+
22+10 arms paired vs the alpha-1.4 reference (1498.3), parity exact in
|
| 3681 |
+
all drivers, count-flat (swaps 2.95-2.98):
|
| 3682 |
+
- Alpha fine grid: 1.4 is a SHARP minimum (1.3 +36; 1.35 +2.7 wash;
|
| 3683 |
+
1.45 +22.9 at 1W/21L; 1.5 +47.6 at 3W/29L; 1.6/1.8/2.0 monotone up).
|
| 3684 |
+
Public-confirmed operating point = the exact CV bowl bottom.
|
| 3685 |
+
- Packing (tw x sd) at 1.4: flat (< +4.6) - independent of alpha.
|
| 3686 |
+
- Hyperparams (logbag C/bags, gapHGB l2/leaf) at 1.4: all within +-4.3.
|
| 3687 |
+
- ORDER WEIGHTS SHIFT: at alpha 1.0 the .50/.30/.20 mix was a sharp
|
| 3688 |
+
optimum (phase 72: all jitters +23..+50); at alpha 1.4 the wiener->gap
|
| 3689 |
+
direction is a coherent basin: .25/.25 -13.9 (p.013), .23/.27 -3.7
|
| 3690 |
+
(p.042), floor at wiener .20 - .50/.20/.30 = 1476.0 (-22.3, 2.0sig,
|
| 3691 |
+
p.013) and .55/.20/.25 = 1475.2 (-23.1, 1.6sig, 26W/8L p.004) - then
|
| 3692 |
+
rising (.15/.35 -8.0, .10/.40 +6.2). Mechanism: the wiener barrier
|
| 3693 |
+
distance ranks imminent deaths well but discriminates poorly in the
|
| 3694 |
+
deeper 15-19/scen band that alpha 1.4 buys; the gapHGB is stronger
|
| 3695 |
+
there. The dial's CV optimum is OPERATING-POINT-DEPENDENT.
|
| 3696 |
+
Winner's-curse haircut (best of ~30 arms at this alpha): true effect
|
| 3697 |
+
likely -12..-18. NOT shipped as of this entry: the selection stands on
|
| 3698 |
+
the publicly MEASURED 62e9d91 (1480.85); re-selecting an unmeasured
|
| 3699 |
+
re-weight is a user-level risk decision (no public triggers remain).
|