Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
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4bc9676
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phase 74: alpha-1.4 re-tune - wiener weight basin floor .20 (CV 1476.0); other dials orthogonal

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  1. EXPERIMENTS.md +23 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md CHANGED
@@ -3674,3 +3674,26 @@ Phase 73 postscript - dose-response complete: alpha 1.4 -> 1498.3
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  (+47.7). Clear minimum at 1.4; monotone rise beyond. NO second public
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  A/B per the stopping rule. FINAL: select 62e9d91 (1480.85); fallback
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  4c93883 (1575.31).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  (+47.7). Clear minimum at 1.4; monotone rise beyond. NO second public
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  A/B per the stopping rule. FINAL: select 62e9d91 (1480.85); fallback
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  4c93883 (1575.31).
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+
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+ ## Phase 74 - Re-tune at alpha 1.4 (user-directed): dials orthogonal EXCEPT the wiener weight - basin floor .20 (CV 1476.0, -22.3, 2.0sig)
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+
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+ 22+10 arms paired vs the alpha-1.4 reference (1498.3), parity exact in
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+ all drivers, count-flat (swaps 2.95-2.98):
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+ - Alpha fine grid: 1.4 is a SHARP minimum (1.3 +36; 1.35 +2.7 wash;
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+ 1.45 +22.9 at 1W/21L; 1.5 +47.6 at 3W/29L; 1.6/1.8/2.0 monotone up).
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+ Public-confirmed operating point = the exact CV bowl bottom.
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+ - Packing (tw x sd) at 1.4: flat (< +4.6) - independent of alpha.
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+ - Hyperparams (logbag C/bags, gapHGB l2/leaf) at 1.4: all within +-4.3.
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+ - ORDER WEIGHTS SHIFT: at alpha 1.0 the .50/.30/.20 mix was a sharp
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+ optimum (phase 72: all jitters +23..+50); at alpha 1.4 the wiener->gap
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+ direction is a coherent basin: .25/.25 -13.9 (p.013), .23/.27 -3.7
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+ (p.042), floor at wiener .20 - .50/.20/.30 = 1476.0 (-22.3, 2.0sig,
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+ p.013) and .55/.20/.25 = 1475.2 (-23.1, 1.6sig, 26W/8L p.004) - then
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+ rising (.15/.35 -8.0, .10/.40 +6.2). Mechanism: the wiener barrier
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+ distance ranks imminent deaths well but discriminates poorly in the
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+ deeper 15-19/scen band that alpha 1.4 buys; the gapHGB is stronger
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+ there. The dial's CV optimum is OPERATING-POINT-DEPENDENT.
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+ Winner's-curse haircut (best of ~30 arms at this alpha): true effect
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+ likely -12..-18. NOT shipped as of this entry: the selection stands on
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+ the publicly MEASURED 62e9d91 (1480.85); re-selecting an unmeasured
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+ re-weight is a user-level risk decision (no public triggers remain).