Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
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ead8fbc
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Parent(s): 435304e
phase 75: public refutes order re-weight (+15.1); selection stays 62e9d91; head reverted
Browse files- EXPERIMENTS.md +19 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md
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@@ -3697,3 +3697,22 @@ Winner's-curse haircut (best of ~30 arms at this alpha): true effect
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likely -12..-18. NOT shipped as of this entry: the selection stands on
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the publicly MEASURED 62e9d91 (1480.85); re-selecting an unmeasured
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re-weight is a user-level risk decision (no public triggers remain).
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| 3697 |
likely -12..-18. NOT shipped as of this entry: the selection stands on
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the publicly MEASURED 62e9d91 (1480.85); re-selecting an unmeasured
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re-weight is a user-level risk decision (no public triggers remain).
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## Phase 75 - PUBLIC REFUTES the order re-weight: 1495.92 (+15.1) - FINAL selection stays 62e9d91 (1480.85); head reverted
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User-triggered read of 354fd2d (.50/.20/.30): 1495.92 vs 62e9d91's
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1480.85 (+15.08). Counts flat as designed (752 vs 747 swaps); the loss
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is spread evenly: late +5.00 (4030 vs 4006 late-days), early +3.67,
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ops +6.39. CV said -22.3 (2.0sig, basin-confirmed, p.004/.013 floor
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arms); public says +15.1 - a SIGN FLIP in the bgkf's home channel
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(ordering). Post-mortem read: best-of-~30 winner's curse plus a real
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fleet effect - the wiener barrier-distance source earns MORE weight on
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held-out fleets than building-OOF folds suggest (its physics transfers;
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the gapHGB's depth-2 splits are more fold-idiosyncratic). Cost of the
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experiment: zero (selection rule pre-locked, portal unchanged).
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LEDGER OF THE NIGHT'S A/Bs: packing CV-win refuted (+7.8), warmup gate
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refuted (+19.6), alpha 1.4 CONVERTED (-94.5, amplified 2.2x), order
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re-weight refuted (+15.1). The bgkf prices the count/appetite channel
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and long-standing ordering STACKS, but individual 2sig dial moves in
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any channel are coin flips publicly - only public A/Bs adjudicate.
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FINAL: selection 62e9d91 (public 1480.85); head reverted to its config.
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