Commit History
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Phase 40: port the research loop's CV discipline + ship in-fleet pooling
Thibaut Forest +1: Claude Opus 5 (1M context)CV protocols move out of /tmp into batteryswap_example/cv.py, with the champion config itself promoted from /tmp/all48.py into cv.CHAMPION: all48 full-fleet walk-forward, three-regime scorecard static the deployment gate - one foreign-fleet fit, no refits, 11s a seed, ORDERING questions only (this construction manufactures a sum(p42) undercount; phase 26 believed it and public went 1661 -> 2189) screen offline model screen grouped by BATTERY, never by scenario/row models_cv.rank_stats now runs inside walk_forward, so dev/panel/test also report rec12/rec20, operating-point recall+precision, the count actually bought, and the median rank of missed deaths beside the cost. Base reproduces 1661.7 / 2379.7 / 1679.2 / 604.8 byte-exact - the additions are diagnostic only. What the new metrics show: the panel's missed deaths sit at median rank 57, 45 ranks past the cut. That is the closed appetite axis as a measurement rather than an argument. screen s…c7d5d98
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Adaptive runtime submission: per-scenario refits, bagging, stronger routing
Thibaut Forest +1: Claude Opus 5 (1M context)Uses the 30-minute runtime budget instead of a static pickle: - submit.py: refits the model at every scenario origin on the target split's own history pooled with packaged train features, with labels self-masked to windows closed before each origin (assertion-enforced; never reads future eol_times). Time-budget + mid-split deadline guards fall back to the static pickle per split. - logbag model: 15-fold bagged logistic (dev 2126 -> 2074, test 1440 -> 1398) - stronger routing search: merge moves + restarts, and within-day visits now sorted by building/room (the evaluator pays repeated building changes for interleaved rows) - tau_projected feature: master-curve inversion minus staleness, targeting devices that go dark and keep discharging (test 1476 -> 1439) - synthetic training origins every 4 days back to Feb-2025 (2.7x positives) Walk-forward: dev 2074, test 1398, honest all-48 train metric 2202 with mobility+limits at 242 vs current leaderboard leader's 280. Runtime: 2…fc9c286