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logs/probepos_logs/repro_armc.log
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[2026-09-01 13:25:08] scoring s=4 cache=yarn -> probe_arm_c_repro/reach.csv
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variant nll se score sig? notes
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p0 13.3633 0.1909 0.1335 no
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p0.25 10.5884 0.1582 1.6998 YES
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p0.5 11.6092 0.2228 1.1236 YES
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p0.75 6.5995 0.2618 3.9515 YES
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p1 11.8282 0.1906 1.0000 YES
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floor(p1)=11.8282 absent=13.5998 null=13.3837 denom=1.7716 nats
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FLAG p0.25: below the floor by more than 2 s.e. -- distant needle beating adjacency is suspicious; inspect (not an auto-fail).
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FLAG p0.75: below the floor by more than 2 s.e. -- distant needle beating adjacency is suspicious; inspect (not an auto-fail).
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wrote probe_arm_c_repro/reach.csv
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[2026-09-01 13:25:08] SWEEP DONE -> probe_arm_c_repro/reach.csv (CSVs in probe_arm_c_repro/csv, markers in probe_arm_c_repro/state)
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