RLCR-QA (48-step probe)

Qwen3-8B belief scorer. Initialized from an Acc+Brier run (RLCR-D), then trained 48 GRPO steps on evidence-wrapped QA statements.

The model writes <think>, <analysis>, and <belief>. The belief is P(the wrapped statement is true).

Reward: 0.5 format + 0.5 Brier + 0.5 derived accuracy. This export is the 48-step checkpoint. A further 48 steps did not improve the QA evaluation.

On 149 held-out QA items with frozen retrieved evidence: AUROC 74.74, accuracy 73.15, Brier 18.62, ECE 8.26.

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