code/offload/dspark/probabilistic/pp3/COST.md

STOP: measured primitives do not qualify an exposed production win

All values below are labelled. No live request, Spark access, pair work or production-K2 full-model replay occurred. Frozen PP2 inputs were read with git show from e1befc9, never refitted. Cost model and machine-readable result preserve unknown costs as null.

MEASURED on x86host's solo bc62df2a at225W, required miniconda CPython3.13, Torch2.12.1/cu130 and Triton3.7.1; graph-replayed primitive timings:

Batch	Depth4 top32 median/p95 ms	Depth5 top32 median/p95 ms	Depth5 torch argmax median ms
B1	.143155/.143258	.155443/.155546	.130970
B2	.141926/.142029	.177357/.177459	.133325
B3	.150221/.150323	.187699/.187786	.133318
B4	.166912/.167110	.208589/.208691	.134144

These time already-conditioned synthetic logits, not Markov evaluation, the current production fused selector, K2 backbone, real TP2 exchange or eager sampled serving. B1 incremental selector cost versus this torch microbenchmark is .024474ms; B4 is .074445ms. Neither grants replacement credit against the production selector. The producer uses two launches/position and misses the absolute .05ms/round goal at every measured shape. Its prototype model hook still runs the original greedy selector and materializes extra Markov logits; there is no whole-K2 or exposed-pair timing for that path.

MEASURED B1depth5, full target vocabulary129280, actual prepared standard rejection kernels on the same solo: full q-aware verifier p95 .014029ms versus point-mass verifier .013005ms; sparse1280-byte D2H .003859ms, H2D .004307ms; dense-q zero+scatter .004506ms. These exclude target model/processor time, CPU validation, slot index-copy and GB10 differences. Five toy-law tests pass at family alpha1e-5; the numerical test is not a hardware timing transfer proof.

ESTIMATED framing: B1depth5 is1416B/reply including app header, sparse payload, semantic header/mask and CRC; B4 is5412B. At the previously measured40Gb/s link negotiation, B1 serialization is .0002832ms, or .0005664ms charging two serial copies at40Gb/s. This is shape arithmetic, not a network-latency measurement.

Adding the full producer, full q-aware verifier, two transfer proxies, dense expansion and two wire copies gives .182813ms in known B1 proxies. This charges full verifier cost rather than only its delta, gives no greedy credit and does not assign a value to missing work. Summing p95 operations is a conditional cost model, not a measured p95 of a pipeline or a statistical upper bound. Unknowns include extra Markov work, eager launches, full vocabulary peer staging, CPU CRC/q/proxy work, target slot copies/TP synchronization, GB10 work, quantizer differences from PP2 and future sampled-policy occupancy.

PP2's pooled nominal top32/.7 fixed5 expectation rises from3.091813 to3.305514 retained tokens/round; paired delta interval .175370–.254434. With its archived 48.08ms fixed5 policy price (not an observed matched mean), the pooled lower interval allows2.727129ms total added cost. After known proxies,2.544316ms remains for unknowns. Family lower-interval remaining budgets are2.320812 and 2.369660ms; the16–32K proxy is tighter at1.365677ms. PP2 used float64 normalized q, whereas this implementation samples emitted dyadic24 q; its acceptance is not newly replay-qualified. There is no150K acceptance capture.

For the requested B1 short/32K/150K view, the following are ESTIMATED sensitivities, not forecasts. Each transplants the relevant fixed5 replay's relative token-count gain onto a different historical adaptive W8 time/acceptance population. The32K row uses the16–32K proxy;150K additionally extrapolates pooled anchors no longer than47K. Changing the unknown-cost assumption changes the answer substantially. No actual expected live rate is reported.

B1 context	Historical adaptive tok/s	Conditional tok/s with unknown extra0ms	With extra1ms	With extra3ms
Short	53.56	58.01 (+8.32%)	56.52 (+5.52%)	53.74 (+.34%)
32K proxy	62.64	65.31 (+4.25%)	63.71 (+1.71%)	60.74 (−3.03%)
150K extrapolation	55.23	58.78 (+6.42%)	57.34 (+3.82%)	54.66 (−1.03%)

The0ms column illustrates omitted costs; it is not the decision model. Actual net rate and150K acceptance remain null. The current prototype fails the single-launch/absolute timing objectives and lacks real K2/pair/GB10/lifecycle qualification. Preserve production; finish those gates before the separately pre-registered 69-minute coordinator window.