| # generator_v17 — boundary-aligned forecast-task ablation |
| |
| This candidate forks `generator_v12` and preserves its deterministic |
| single-stream prefetch path, fixed 4096-point rows, and established stochastic |
| families. Its decisive change is a new `forecast_tasks` family occupying 45% of |
| the final corpus and 60% of the clean early curriculum. |
|
|
| ## Forecast-task compiler |
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|
| Each forecast-task row is a continuous composition of: |
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| - deterministic quota-sampled periods from 7, 15, 24, 48, 60, 96, 144, 240, |
| and 288; |
| - slowly varying seasonal amplitude and phase templates; |
| - smooth global trends and predictable local slope corrections; |
| - persistent AR residuals with slowly varying, context-visible volatility; |
| - sparse precursor → 64-step event → recovery episodes whose boundaries are |
| exact multiples of 32. |
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|
| The 32-point alignment matches Toto2's patch size, while the 64-step episodes |
| match Cascade's two-patch evaluation horizon. Event sign, approximate magnitude, |
| and volatility are visible during the preceding context; this teaches |
| conditional forecasts rather than independent surprise corruption. |
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| Period quotas use a 70% revealed-pool-frequency and 30% uniform blend. Counts |
| are allocated exactly inside each generated family block and then shuffled by |
| the generator's seeded RNG. |
|
|
| ## Curriculum and corruption |
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|
| The forecast-task family starts at 60% with `forecast_task_hardness = 0.15`, then |
| blends to a 45% share at full difficulty. Existing families retain the remaining |
| 55% as a regression guardrail. |
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|
| Compared with v12, final independent corruption is materially reduced: |
|
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| - shock-row rate: 0.40 → 0.08; |
| - irregular-hold row rate: 0.25 → 0.08; |
| - irregular hold probability: 0.01–0.10 → 0.005–0.04; |
| - censor rate: 0.08 → 0.04; |
| - regular-hold rate: 0.08 → 0.04; |
| - TSMixup: 0.03 → 0.01. |
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| Positive and count observation links remain, at slightly lower rates, because |
| they model domains rather than independent corruption. |
|
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| ## Determinism and throughput |
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| `generation_workers` remains 1. The new family consumes only the existing |
| `numpy.random.Generator` stream, uses vectorized NumPy operations plus the |
| existing SciPy AR filter, and introduces no new dependencies or unseeded state. |
|
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| ## Verification |
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|
| ```bash |
| cd /root/cascade |
| cascade verify /root/generator_v17 |
| ``` |
|
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| For a direct generation benchmark, instantiate both generators with the same |
| seed, drain the same row count, and compare points per second. This benchmark |
| tests generation only; it does not launch a heat evaluation. |
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|
