| --- |
| license: other |
| license_name: mixed-base-model-licenses |
| license_link: https://github.com/TW3-Partners-OS/TW3-Cast |
| tags: |
| - time-series |
| - forecasting |
| - gift-eval |
| --- |
| |
| # TW3Cast — expert checkpoints and replication pack |
|
|
| Expert checkpoints of **TW3Cast**, a frozen per-configuration router of lightly fine-tuned |
| time-series foundation models evaluated on GIFT-Eval (no agent, no LLM at inference, no |
| test-data leakage in any component). |
|
|
| ## Expert checkpoints |
|
|
| One entry per expert id of the routing table: `<Exx>.pt` (state_dict), `<Exx>/` |
| (save_pretrained or PEFT adapter directory), or `<Exx>__<config>.npy` (verified forecast |
| quantiles, for the one expert whose weights were not retained). Each expert's architecture |
| family (`c2` = Chronos-2, `tirex` = TiRex, `toto` = Toto 2.5B LoRA) is given by `experts.json` |
| in the code repository. |
|
|
| ## Replication pack |
|
|
| - `served/<config>.npy` — the served forecast quantiles of every one of the 97 configurations, |
| shape `(n_windows, 9, horizon)`: the exact arrays behind the submission, tournament-mode |
| configurations included. Evaluating them with the official harness reproduces every metric |
| of the submitted score file. |
| - `submission/all_results.csv` — the submitted score file (97 configurations x 12 metrics). |
| - `decisions/tournament_decisions.csv` — for each tournament-served configuration, the member |
| selected on the train-side backtest and the number of per-window gate switches. |
|
|
| Replicate any line with one command (see the code repository): |
|
|
| ```bash |
| python replicate.py --config "m4_weekly/W/short" # or --all |
| ``` |
|
|
| Code, routing table and pinned base-model revisions: |
| **https://github.com/TW3-Partners-OS/TW3-Cast** |
|
|
| Base models remain under their original licenses (Amazon Chronos-2, NX-AI TiRex, Datadog |
| Toto, Google TimesFM). |
|
|
