Buckets:
| # AIDE analytic baselines — official test split (n=609, variant=protocol) | |
| Protocol: driver rule `first`, grid `floor` ([0, 4, 9, 14, 19, 24, 29, 34, 39, 44]), HM = top 60 clips by mean displacement over 4 future transitions (threshold 72.05 px), PCK threshold t·max(W,H) (96 px @0.05). 95% CIs = clip-level bootstrap (10000 resamples). Δ vs ZV = paired per-clip difference (negative = better). | |
| Generated 2026-09-12T03:48:48Z by aide/eval/baselines_analytic.py; all numbers come from eval/harness.py output (metrics_test.json of each run). | |
| | run | All-MPJPE | d-nMPJPE | HM-MPJPE | HM d-nMPJPE | PCK@0.05 | PCK@0.10 | h=1 | h=5 | HM h=5 | Δ vs ZV (All) | Δ vs ZV (HM) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | zero_velocity | 52.93 [48.88, 57.25] | 2.403 | 139.23 [116.93, 167.68] | 6.320 | 85.95 | 93.61 | 36.96 | 63.74 | 178.67 | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00] | +0.00 [+0.00, +0.00] | | |
| | const_vel_a1.0 | 163.50 [143.17, 188.16] | 7.422 | 342.29 [261.38, 473.58] | 15.538 | 70.18 | 82.36 | 67.24 | 256.92 | 538.12 | +110.57 [+91.37, +134.35] | +203.06 [+127.60, +333.05] | | |
| | const_vel_a0.5 | 102.26 [91.33, 115.12] | 4.642 | 228.63 [183.07, 295.19] | 10.379 | 77.85 | 87.54 | 49.60 | 151.55 | 341.17 | +49.33 [+39.94, +60.91] | +89.41 [+53.17, +151.68] | | |
| | const_vel_a0.25 | 74.35 [67.70, 81.80] | 3.375 | 177.42 [147.36, 216.12] | 8.054 | 81.84 | 90.35 | 42.19 | 102.37 | 249.84 | +21.42 [+16.89, +27.06] | +38.19 [+21.35, +67.16] | | |
| | anti_velocity_0.1 | 52.53 [48.46, 56.84] | 2.384 | 138.55 [116.22, 167.04] | 6.289 | 85.83 | 93.73 | 37.00 | 63.02 | 177.22 | -0.40 [-0.82, +0.13] | -0.68 [-1.67, +0.63] | | |
| | mean_obs | 55.94 [51.00, 61.55] | 2.539 | 140.07 [116.80, 168.65] | 6.358 | 84.49 | 93.26 | 46.68 | 62.38 | 163.87 | +3.01 [-0.10, +7.04] | +0.84 [-6.28, +8.69] | | |
| | per_part_copy | 52.69 [48.61, 57.04] | 2.392 | 138.57 [116.20, 166.93] | 6.290 | 85.86 | 93.69 | 38.11 | 62.49 | 174.83 | -0.24 [-0.92, +0.62] | -0.66 [-2.35, +1.10] | | |
| | zv_shrink_val | 51.54 [47.46, 55.97] | 2.340 | 134.36 [111.80, 162.87] | 6.099 | 85.88 | 93.91 | 38.37 | 60.54 | 167.45 | -1.39 [-2.66, +0.26] | -4.86 [-7.67, -1.95] | | |
| | mean_pose_shrink_a0.1 | 54.41 [50.54, 58.57] | 2.470 | 135.66 [113.26, 164.22] | 6.158 | 86.27 | 93.92 | 40.04 | 64.22 | 173.03 | +1.48 [+0.96, +2.03] | -3.57 [-4.80, -2.41] | | |
| | mean_pose_shrink_a0.2 | 59.31 [55.63, 63.35] | 2.692 | 134.17 [111.59, 162.95] | 6.090 | 84.92 | 94.08 | 46.85 | 67.91 | 168.88 | +6.38 [+5.26, +7.57] | -5.06 [-7.44, -2.73] | | |
| | mean_pose_shrink_a0.3 | 65.78 [62.16, 69.71] | 2.986 | 134.09 [111.22, 162.97] | 6.087 | 82.07 | 93.85 | 55.13 | 73.20 | 166.00 | +12.85 [+11.14, +14.68] | -5.14 [-8.70, -1.62] | | |
| | zv_shrink_h_val | 51.21 [47.14, 55.63] | 2.325 | 132.34 [109.76, 160.95] | 6.007 | 86.13 | 93.91 | 36.65 | 60.89 | 163.95 | -1.72 [-3.06, +0.02] | -6.89 [-10.11, -3.59] | | |
| Published (Driver-WM Table 1, typed from the paper into protocol.PAPER): | |
| | source | All-MPJPE | d-nMPJPE | HM-MPJPE | HM d-nMPJPE | PCK@0.05 | HM h=5 | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | paper zero-velocity | 52.89 | 2.4 | 139.19 | 6.32 | 85.95 | – | | |
| | paper Driver-WM | 71.47 | 3.24 | 138.03 | 6.27 | 71.66 | 155.82 | | |
| | paper static pooling (best HM) | – | – | 134.56 | 6.11 | – | – | | |
| Roadmap B0 rows: `mean_pose_shrink_a{0.1,0.2,0.3}` shrink the last observed pose towards the TRAIN-split mean pose (protocol frame 4, per joint; a fixed a priori); `zv_shrink_h_val` uses α_h = a·h/5 towards the observed mean with a fitted on val All. Trade-off table and Pareto figure: `tradeoff_all_vs_hm.md`, `pareto_all_vs_hm.png`. | |
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