Buckets:
| # K-v2 programme — CockpitWM-K improvement, pre-registered 2026-09-14 (protocol C23) — val n = 405 (selection), test n = 609 (one evaluation per run), paired per-clip bootstrap (10000) | |
| Generated 20260914T234626Z by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` from pred_{val,test}.npz / metrics_{val,test}.json / run json / `aide/results/kv2/*.json` only (locked protocol: driver `first`, grid `floor`, val HM top 40 (threshold 83.33 px, NEVER a ranking statistic), test HM top 60 (threshold 72.05 px), PCK @ 96 px; every run selected on val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights only, test evaluated once by the harness). Δ = paired per-clip difference (negative = better for errors, positive = better for PCK), CI = clip-bootstrap percentile interval. **Verdict rule (as `arch_attribution.md`): BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and |Δ| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE.** Confirmatory cells need all 5 seeds; otherwise "pending". | |
| ## 0. Pre-registration (verbatim decisions row) and timestamp check | |
| - S0 UTC: **2026-09-14T22:51:07Z**; earliest programme run `t_start_utc`: **2026-09-14T23:08:22Z** (21 programme runs finished of 188 possible names); runs started at or before S0: none. | |
| > | 2026-09-14 | **K-v2 programme — S0 pre-registration (CockpitWM-K improvement; new model file `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py`, `--model cwm3d_v2`; approved plan `<local-notes>/plans/elegant-dazzling-stallman.md` Part A; row written at S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z BEFORE any K-v2 / MB-grid run; the same UTC is in `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt` and protocol C23).** **Honesty clause**: the K-v2 design (hierarchical part trunk kept; joint tokens + 2 spatial blocks + attention pooling; lean shared read-out; onset-hazard head gating the anchor mixture) was motivated by the TEST diagnostics of `arch_attribution.md` §3.2 (K vs MotionBERT-kp: right hand +0.71, body +0.28, h=2–4 +0.2–0.3, HM h=3/4 +2.4/+2.0) → therefore ALL K-v2 configuration choices are fixed on VAL only, and MotionBERT-kp (MB) receives the same val selection budget (S3, 10 val points each). **Locked protocol unchanged**: val-only selection on All-MPJPE of the EMA weights; the official test split is evaluated exactly once per run by the existing harness (append-only `results.csv`); no flip TTA; ensembles only as separately labelled rows; Stage-A recipe verbatim (`--lr 3e-4 --wd 0.05 --warmup 10 --epochs 200 --bs 32 --ema 0.999 --clip 1.0 --patience 40 --aug-window 1 --noise-px 2.0 --joint-drop 0.1 --translate 20 --scale 0.05 --flip-p 0`; K loss defaults euc + 0.1 NLL + 0.05 bone + 0.01 jerk; tensor-output models add `--loss euc`); paired per-clip clip-bootstrap 10,000 resamples seed 0 (`aide/eval/metrics.paired_diff`); verdict rule of `arch_attribution.md`: BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4/5) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and \|Δ\| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE. Every decision below is computed mechanically by `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py` from `pred_val.npz` + `harness.load_split("val")` (+ `metrics.hm_mask` on val) and written as UTC-stamped json in `aide/results/kv2/` (`s1_decision.json`, `s1b_<cfg>_decision.json`, `s3_decision.json`, `pretrain_check_<cfg>.json`); downstream runs may start only after the corresponding json exists. **S1 val screen (seed 42, n = 405)**: 9 configs vs the existing `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2` (val All 55.367): `cwm3d_v2_s42_v2` (full), `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2` (`--no-v2-spatial`), `_khead` (`--no-lean-head`, K's per-part read-out), `_nohaz` (`--no-hazard`), `_hazaux` (`--haz-mod 0`: hazard BCE on, gating off), `_plain` (`--no-physics --w-nll 0`), `_q060` / `_q090` (`--haz-quantile 0.60 / 0.90`), `_lam03` (`--haz-weight 0.3`); statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All (config − K); **SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px** (≈ 1.4 val seed-sd); at most 2 survivors (ranked by mean Δ; candidates within 0.10 px of each other are ties → the one with FEWER components wins, components = enabled optional modules of {spatial blocks, lean head, hazard BCE, hazard gating, physics+NLL} — full / q060 / q090 / lam03 = 5, nospatial / khead / hazaux / plain = 4, nohaz = 3; remaining ties by name); **HM guard (never a selection statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 px AND its CI excludes 0**. The 40-clip val HM subset is never used for ranking (level CI width ≈ 37 px vs 8.3 for val All; seed sd 0.93 vs 0.21; val HM threshold 83.3 px ≠ test 72.05 px). Test numbers of S1 runs are produced once by the trainer as usual and are RECORDED, never used for any decision. **S1b**: each survivor at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE to seeds 456 / 789 / 1011 iff Δ val(123) < 0 AND the two-seed mean ≤ −0.25 px; otherwise stop and report "val-killed at seed 123". **S2 (5 seeds 42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), without and with BATON trunk-only init**: K-v2's tokenizer / trunk tensors differ from K's → own pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (`pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --seed 123`: same corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, bs 256, 6 epochs, held-out-route selection, `--zeroshot 0` = no zero-shot test evaluation) UNLESS `kv2_gate.py pretrain-check <cfg>` (dry `train_kp.load_init_ckpt(parts="trunk")` of the survivor model on CPU against `aide/results/runs/cwm3d_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123/ckpt_best.pt`) reports n_skipped_shape = 0 AND zero missing TRUNK_PREFIXES tensors, in which case K's checkpoint is reused; fine-tunes `cwm3d_v2_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2` (`--init-parts trunk`); K's own +pre arm is completed to 5 seeds with `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` (recipe and init of the existing s42/123/456 runs verbatim). **S3 MB fairness arm**: (i) same-budget val grid at seed 42: `motionbert_kp_{d192, L4, lr1e-4, lr1e-3, wd0.01, wd0.1, do0.1, d192_L4, d192_L4_do0.1}_s42_v2` (`--model motionbert_kp[_d192][_L4]` name-encoded width / depth, `--lr`, `--wd`, `--dropout` flags; `--loss euc`) + the existing default `motionbert_kp_s42_v2` = 10 val points = S1's 10; **MB-best = argmin val All** (ties within 0.10 px → fewer parameters); if MB-best ≠ default it is run at the 5 seeds; (ii) MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds: `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` are run UNCONDITIONALLY (completing the attribution table); if MB-best changes lr / wd / dropout only, the existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint is reused (`motionbert_kp_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`); if MB-best changes d or L, a new pretraining `motionbert_kp_<tag>_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (same corpus / schedule) precedes 5 fine-tunes. **K-v2(best)** = the S2 survivor with the lowest mean VAL All over its finished seeds (ties 0.10 → fewer components); with one survivor it is that one. **PRIMARY (two co-primary endpoints, test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state, beats rule above)**: P1 = K-v2(best) − MB-best (no pretraining); P2 = K-v2(best)+pre − MB-best+pre. **ADOPTION**: A1 = K-v2(best) − `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2` BEATS on All over 5 seeds → K-v2 becomes the main-table CockpitWM-K row (K's row itself unchanged), otherwise K-v2 is an ablation row; A2 = K-v2(best)+pre − K+pre (`cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`) BEATS → the "+ BATON trunk" row. **SECONDARY (descriptive with CIs, never an adoption basis)**: d-n, HM, PCK@0.05, HM h=5, per-part, per-horizon, AUC of the hazard probability haz_P against HM membership. **Paper-wording consequence table** (mirrors the 2026-09-14 attribution row): P1 ∧ P2 BEATS → an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged); P1 BEATS ∧ ¬P2 → "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises", attribution sentence kept; ¬P1 ∧ P2 → "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk", attribution sentence kept; neither → wording unchanged verbatim, K-v2 = ablation family + `gen_tables.py` NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE is reported as is. **Multiplicity**: ≤ 9 (S1) + 18 (S2) + 2 (K+pre seeds) + 9 (S3 i) + 4 (MB-best seeds) + 7 (S3 ii) ≈ 49 new single test evaluations, each required by the protocol, none used for selection; confirmatory claims are exactly P1, P2, A1, A2. **Already published numbers untouched**; all results only in the new table `aide/results/tables/kv2_program.md` (+ .json) written by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` (reads only pred_{val,test}.npz, metrics_{val,test}.json, run json; append-only; machine-readable line `**ADOPTION A1: ADOPTED\|NOT ADOPTED**`). **Execution**: `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` lanes A (S1 → gate s1), B (S3 i → gate s3 → MB-best seeds / +pre), C (`motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`), D (pretrain-check → v2 pretraining if needed → S1b → gate s1b → seeds ± pre); every launch passes the project gate (free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, `pgrep -fc "python.*(train_cwm3\|train_kp\|pretrain)"` < 4, OMP/MKL 4; `setsid nohup bash`; a run whose run json exists is never re-run; pids in `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`); `--no-lock --max-minutes 45`, `--notes "kv2_program;<stage>;cfg=<cfg>"`; `--refs zvshrink=zv_shrink_val,simlpe=simlpe_kp_s<k or 42>_v2,kp=cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2,mb=motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2` (+ `seedinit=<model>_s<k>_v2` for +pre runs; refs are evaluation-only). Lanes A / D start only after `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py` exists and `pytest -q aide/tests/test_cwm3d_v2.py` passes. Honest expectation (recorded): HM likely improves, All likely still ties MB; every result enters the table regardless. | plan Part A §A.2–A.4; `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`, `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py`, `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh`, `aide/tests/test_kv2.py`, `aide/models/motionbert_kp.py::build` (name variants), `aide/docs/protocol.md` C23, `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt`; motivation `aide/results/tables/arch_attribution.md` §3.2 | Every K-v2 / MB-grid run json must have `t_start_utc` later than 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z (checked by `report_kv2_program.py` §0); gate json must predate the downstream launches; "S1 outcome" and final "K-v2 outcome" rows + C23 outcome follow; paper text changes only after the outcome, per the consequence table | | |
| ## 1. S1 val screen (seed 42; statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All vs `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2`; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px; ≤ 2 survivors, ties 0.10 → fewer components; HM guard KILL iff Δ val HM > +3.0 with CI excl. 0 — the val HM column is SECONDARY) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s1_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:45:48Z (complete = True). Rule: paired per-clip Δ val All (config − cwm3d_kp_s42_v2), n = 405, 10000 clip-bootstrap seed 0; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ -0.3 px; ≤ 2 survivors ranked by mean Δ, ties within 0.1 px -> fewer components (full/q060/q090/lam03 = 5, nospatial/khead/hazaux/plain = 4, nohaz = 3); HM guard (never a ranking statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 AND CI excl. 0. | |
| | cfg | run | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All [CI] | Δ val HM [CI] (secondary) | guard | S1 status | test All (recorded, not used) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | K (baseline) | cwm3d_kp_s42_v2 | — | 5771449 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) / 0.6 | 55.367 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 48.767 | | |
| | full | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | (full) | 2736282 | 75 / 116 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.25 | 55.170 | -0.197 [-0.798,+0.387] | +0.60 [-2.54,+3.45] | ok | KILL | 48.696 | | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | --no-v2-spatial | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 1.69 | 54.788 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.64 [-4.19,+1.99] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.267 | | |
| | khead | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | --no-lean-head | 5091964 | 52 / 93 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.75 | 55.482 | +0.115 [-0.442,+0.662] | +1.06 [-1.16,+3.09] | ok | KILL | 48.642 | | |
| | nohaz | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | --no-hazard | 2702199 | 106 / 147 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.71 | 55.325 | -0.042 [-0.873,+0.723] | +2.94 [-0.38,+6.86] | ok | KILL | 48.648 | | |
| | hazaux | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | --haz-mod 0 | 2736267 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.51 | 55.140 | -0.227 [-0.888,+0.393] | +2.41 [+0.04,+4.95] | ok | KILL | 48.592 | | |
| | plain | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | --no-physics --w-nll 0 | 2736282 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.69 | 55.218 | -0.149 [-0.722,+0.397] | +1.73 [-0.72,+4.18] | ok | KILL | 48.728 | | |
| | q060 | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.60 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.32 | 55.320 | -0.047 [-0.674,+0.606] | +3.26 [+0.21,+7.50] | KILL | KILL | 48.704 | | |
| | q090 | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.90 | 2736282 | 71 / 112 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.19 | 55.128 | -0.239 [-0.774,+0.291] | +1.33 [-1.27,+4.02] | ok | KILL | 48.380 | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | --haz-weight 0.3 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.51 | 55.019 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | +1.92 [-0.73,+5.20] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.512 | | |
| **S1 survivors (decision): nospatial, lam03.** | |
| ### 1.1 S1b (survivors at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE iff Δ val(123) < 0 and 2-seed mean ≤ −0.25) | |
| | cfg | seed-123 run | val All | Δ val All s42 [CI] | Δ val All s123 [CI] | 2-seed mean | decision | source | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | pending | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | pending | pending | PENDING | live | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | pending | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | pending | pending | PENDING | live | | |
| **S1b: continuing to 5 seeds: none yet.** | |
| ## 2. S2 — 5 seeds (42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), TEST (one evaluation per run), K-v2 survivors without / with BATON trunk-only init | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123`: not run / not finished; pretrain-check: —. | |
| _(no K-v2 config has reached S2 yet)_ | |
| ## 3. S3 — MotionBERT-kp fairness arm (same val budget: 9 new grid points + existing default = 10; MB-best = argmin val All, ties 0.10 → fewer params) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s3_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:08:40Z (complete = False). Rule: MB-best = argmin val All over the 10 grid points (9 new + existing default); ties within 0.1 px -> fewer parameters. | |
| | cfg | run | model | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All vs default [CI] | test All (recorded, not used) | S3 | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | (default) | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.6 | 55.550 | +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] | 48.279 | **MB-best** | | |
| | d192 | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192 | (default) | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | L4 | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_L4 | (default) | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | lr1e-4 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-4 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | lr1e-3 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-3 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | wd0.01 | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.01 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | wd0.1 | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.1 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | do0.1 | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --dropout 0.1 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | d192_L4 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | (default) | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| | d192_L4_do0.1 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | --dropout 0.1 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| **MB-best = default** (provisional — S3 incomplete or no decision json; model motionbert_kp, flags []; changes d/L: False → existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint reused). | |
| ### 3.1 MB-best and MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds; K + pre completion (test levels) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.6 | 55.550 | 48.28 [44.53, 52.37] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.377] | 130.34 [108.20, 158.53] | 87.17 [86.04, 88.28] | 163.95 [119.85, 223.86] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.94 | 54.528 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 128.03 [105.81, 156.47] | 87.46 [86.37, 88.54] | 159.20 [115.09, 219.85] | | |
| | 42 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 5771449 | 31 / 72 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.48 | 55.003 | 47.98 [44.28, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.010, 2.363] | 128.43 [106.25, 157.11] | 87.21 [86.10, 88.30] | 159.35 [115.56, 219.46] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_s123_v2 | 813088 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.36 | 55.627 | 48.38 [44.65, 52.46] | 2.196 [2.027, 2.381] | 129.16 [106.70, 157.58] | 87.14 [86.02, 88.27] | 162.59 [118.87, 222.08] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 38 / 79 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.16 | 54.720 | 47.53 [43.87, 51.55] | 2.158 [1.992, 2.340] | 126.11 [103.96, 154.69] | 87.40 [86.32, 88.46] | 156.47 [113.00, 215.99] | | |
| | 123 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 5771449 | 33 / 74 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.88 | 54.828 | 48.04 [44.33, 52.11] | 2.181 [2.012, 2.365] | 129.13 [106.80, 157.67] | 87.20 [86.07, 88.32] | 160.11 [116.11, 220.04] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_s456_v2 | 813088 | 90 / 131 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.17 | 55.166 | 48.48 [44.74, 52.58] | 2.201 [2.031, 2.387] | 130.23 [107.78, 158.89] | 87.14 [86.00, 88.25] | 162.24 [116.93, 223.50] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.68 | 54.797 | 47.91 [44.22, 51.93] | 2.175 [2.008, 2.357] | 127.59 [105.28, 156.14] | 87.39 [86.28, 88.47] | 158.92 [114.76, 219.74] | | |
| | 456 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 5771449 | 36 / 77 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.91 | 54.670 | 48.01 [44.31, 52.12] | 2.179 [2.011, 2.366] | 128.51 [106.16, 157.20] | 87.16 [86.02, 88.27] | 159.02 [115.09, 219.40] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_s789_v2 | 813088 | 77 / 118 / early_stop(patience=40) | 6.14 | 55.134 | 48.46 [44.71, 52.57] | 2.200 [2.030, 2.386] | 130.66 [108.19, 159.30] | 87.27 [86.16, 88.36] | 163.04 [118.30, 223.77] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.45 | 54.882 | 47.55 [43.88, 51.56] | 2.159 [1.992, 2.341] | 127.71 [105.39, 156.61] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.48] | 159.11 [114.88, 219.30] | | |
| | 789 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 5771449 | 35 / 76 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.22 | 54.590 | 48.12 [44.44, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.017, 2.370] | 129.32 [107.17, 157.78] | 87.06 [85.94, 88.18] | 161.39 [117.32, 221.77] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.69 | 55.506 | 48.68 [44.92, 52.82] | 2.210 [2.039, 2.398] | 131.49 [108.92, 160.13] | 86.97 [85.81, 88.12] | 166.22 [121.36, 227.01] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 47 / 88 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.98 | 54.868 | 47.85 [44.16, 51.87] | 2.172 [2.005, 2.355] | 129.47 [107.17, 157.92] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.49] | 160.75 [116.16, 221.59] | | |
| | 1011 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 5771449 | 34 / 75 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.14 | 54.609 | 48.11 [44.40, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.016, 2.370] | 128.73 [106.48, 157.39] | 87.03 [85.91, 88.16] | 159.72 [115.63, 220.35] | | |
| #### Δ = MB-best[default]+pre − MB-best[default], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.74 | 47.53 | 47.91 | 47.55 | 47.85 | 48.28 | 48.38 | 48.48 | 48.46 | 48.68 | -0.54 [-1.04,-0.05] | -0.85 [-1.32,-0.37] | -0.57 [-1.17,-0.00] | -0.90 [-1.35,-0.46] | -0.83 [-1.43,-0.26] | -0.74 ± 0.17 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.167 | 2.158 | 2.175 | 2.159 | 2.172 | 2.192 | 2.196 | 2.201 | 2.200 | 2.210 | -0.024 [-0.047,-0.002] | -0.039 [-0.060,-0.017] | -0.026 [-0.053,-0.000] | -0.041 [-0.061,-0.021] | -0.038 [-0.065,-0.012] | -0.034 ± 0.008 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.03 | 126.11 | 127.59 | 127.71 | 129.47 | 130.34 | 129.16 | 130.23 | 130.66 | 131.49 | -2.31 [-4.57,-0.07] | -3.06 [-5.14,-1.09] | -2.64 [-4.65,-0.62] | -2.95 [-4.97,-1.00] | -2.02 [-4.53,+0.34] | -2.60 ± 0.43 | BEATS | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.46 | 87.40 | 87.39 | 87.40 | 87.40 | 87.17 | 87.14 | 87.14 | 87.27 | 86.97 | +0.29 [+0.03,+0.56] | +0.26 [-0.02,+0.54] | +0.25 [-0.09,+0.60] | +0.13 [-0.08,+0.34] | +0.43 [+0.07,+0.82] | +0.27 ± 0.11 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.20 | 156.47 | 158.92 | 159.11 | 160.75 | 163.95 | 162.59 | 162.24 | 163.04 | 166.22 | -4.75 [-8.82,-0.70] | -6.12 [-10.44,-2.09] | -3.32 [-7.53,+0.84] | -3.94 [-7.78,-0.05] | -5.47 [-10.09,-1.44] | -4.72 ± 1.13 | BEATS | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − K, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.79 [-1.29,-0.30] | -0.62 [-1.17,-0.11] | -0.45 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.43 [-0.88,+0.03] | -0.46 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.55 ± 0.15 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.036 [-0.059,-0.014] | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.005] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.019 [-0.040,+0.001] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.025 ± 0.007 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -4.06 [-6.57,-1.74] | -1.92 [-4.14,+0.22] | -2.86 [-5.09,-0.73] | -2.41 [-4.43,-0.48] | -2.49 [-4.79,-0.27] | -2.75 ± 0.81 | BEATS | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.20 [-0.05,+0.45] | +0.22 [-0.07,+0.52] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.06 [-0.16,+0.28] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.11 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.85 [-8.95,-1.00] | -3.25 [-6.97,+0.55] | -3.53 [-7.22,+0.08] | -1.65 [-5.11,+1.98] | -3.98 [-8.22,+0.07] | -3.45 ± 1.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K − MB-best[default], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | 48.28 | 48.38 | 48.48 | 48.46 | 48.68 | +0.49 [-0.06,+1.05] | +0.28 [-0.15,+0.75] | -0.02 [-0.58,+0.49] | +0.09 [-0.36,+0.53] | -0.10 [-0.55,+0.32] | +0.15 ± 0.24 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | 2.192 | 2.196 | 2.201 | 2.200 | 2.210 | +0.022 [-0.003,+0.048] | +0.013 [-0.007,+0.034] | -0.001 [-0.026,+0.022] | +0.004 [-0.016,+0.024] | -0.005 [-0.025,+0.015] | +0.007 ± 0.011 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | 130.34 | 129.16 | 130.23 | 130.66 | 131.49 | +2.15 [-0.84,+5.26] | +1.89 [+0.02,+3.82] | +1.14 [-1.06,+3.41] | +1.07 [-1.32,+3.50] | -0.27 [-2.17,+1.62] | +1.19 ± 0.94 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | 87.17 | 87.14 | 87.14 | 87.27 | 86.97 | -0.16 [-0.43,+0.11] | -0.16 [-0.45,+0.11] | -0.01 [-0.32,+0.33] | -0.27 [-0.53,-0.02] | +0.03 [-0.21,+0.29] | -0.11 ± 0.12 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | 163.95 | 162.59 | 162.24 | 163.04 | 166.22 | +0.24 [-5.20,+5.53] | +0.77 [-2.56,+4.05] | +0.30 [-4.32,+4.79] | -0.00 [-4.68,+4.17] | -2.51 [-6.02,+0.77] | -0.24 ± 1.30 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − MB-best[default]+pre, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 47.74 | 47.53 | 47.91 | 47.55 | 47.85 | +0.24 [-0.19,+0.68] | +0.51 [+0.05,+0.98] | +0.10 [-0.38,+0.61] | +0.56 [+0.09,+1.07] | +0.27 [-0.31,+0.86] | +0.33 ± 0.19 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.167 | 2.158 | 2.175 | 2.159 | 2.172 | +0.011 [-0.009,+0.031] | +0.023 [+0.002,+0.045] | +0.004 [-0.017,+0.028] | +0.026 [+0.004,+0.048] | +0.012 [-0.014,+0.039] | +0.015 ± 0.009 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 128.03 | 126.11 | 127.59 | 127.71 | 129.47 | +0.40 [-2.08,+2.97] | +3.02 [+0.64,+5.72] | +0.91 [-1.54,+3.59] | +1.61 [-0.58,+3.89] | -0.74 [-3.90,+2.55] | +1.04 ± 1.40 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.46 | 87.40 | 87.39 | 87.40 | 87.40 | -0.25 [-0.49,-0.02] | -0.20 [-0.47,+0.07] | -0.23 [-0.53,+0.05] | -0.34 [-0.63,-0.06] | -0.37 [-0.71,-0.05] | -0.28 ± 0.07 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 159.20 | 156.47 | 158.92 | 159.11 | 160.75 | +0.15 [-4.30,+4.39] | +3.64 [-0.80,+8.36] | +0.09 [-5.04,+4.98] | +2.28 [-2.04,+6.39] | -1.03 [-6.37,+3.96] | +1.03 ± 1.89 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| ## 4. Primary endpoints and adoption (test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state; BEATS rule, 4/5) | |
| - K-v2(best) = **pending** (lowest mean VAL All over finished seeds among S1b-continued survivors; ties 0.10 → fewer components): no continued survivor with finished seeds. | |
| | endpoint | n seeds | Δ All per seed [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | secondary (HM / PCK@0.05 / HM h=5 / d-n verdicts) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | P1 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | P2 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | A1 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | A2 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| ### 4.1 Paper-wording consequence table (pre-registered; the realised row is marked) | |
| | case | wording consequence | realised | | |
| |---|---|---| | |
| | P1 ∧ P2 | an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged) | pending | | |
| | P1 ∧ ¬P2 | "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises"; attribution sentence kept | pending | | |
| | ¬P1 ∧ P2 | "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk"; attribution sentence kept | pending | | |
| | neither | wording unchanged verbatim; K-v2 = ablation family + gen_tables.py NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE reported as is | pending | | |
| **ADOPTION A1: NOT ADOPTED** (pending — no K-v2(best) yet; NOT ADOPTED is the conservative default until 5 seeds are final) | |
| **ADOPTION A2: NOT ADOPTED** (pending — no K-v2(best) yet) | |
| - Consequence-table row: **pending (P1 / P2 not final)**. Any WORSE verdict above is reported as is. | |
| ## 5. GPU minutes of the programme's new runs (from run json; the GPU was shared with a DMS feature-extraction job and other lanes, so minutes are wall-clock upper bounds) | |
| | run | GPU min | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.14 | | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.22 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | 4.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | 4.75 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 5.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | 5.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 1.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | 3.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | 4.32 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | 4.19 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | 2.25 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | 4.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 3.98 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 3.45 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | 5.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | 6.14 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.89 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | 2.75 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | 3.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | 3.15 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | 2.83 | | |
| | **total (21 runs)** | **78.2** | | |
| ## 6. Provenance | |
| - Inputs: `pred_val.npz` / `pred_test.npz` / `metrics_val.json` / `metrics_test.json` / `run_<name>_<utc>.json` under `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/runs`; gate decisions `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/kv2`: s1_decision.json, s1_decision_20260914T234548Z.json, s3_decision.json, s3_decision_20260914T230840Z.json; pre-registration row from `/home/USER/cwm3/docs/decisions.md` (S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z). | |
| - Comparison runs `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2`, `motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2`, `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2` are the EXISTING runs (never retrained); every programme run is a new run dir. | |
| - Selection: val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights inside the trainer; S1 / S1b / S3 decisions from pred_val.npz only (`aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`); one test evaluation per run by the harness; no test number was used for any decision. | |
| - Launcher `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` (gate: free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, < 4 trainers, OMP/MKL 4; finished runs skipped); pids `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`. | |
| - Pending runs referenced above: 11. | |
| - Trainer code hashes (`code_sha256` of each finished programme run's run json; distinct values = code changed between launches, e.g. the train_kp.py:630 guard fix of 2026-09-14T23:11:53Z, behaviour-neutral for dict-output models — see `aide/results/kv2/NOTES.md`): `e313c0ff89746293` (10 runs: motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2); `8caba4a8efccd311` (8 runs: cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2); `22306515fd4a42a0` (2 runs: cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2); `652c4ba49ba937f2` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_s42_v2). | |
| --- | |
| <!-- appended regeneration 20260914T234723Z --> | |
| # K-v2 programme — CockpitWM-K improvement, pre-registered 2026-09-14 (protocol C23) — val n = 405 (selection), test n = 609 (one evaluation per run), paired per-clip bootstrap (10000) | |
| Generated 20260914T234723Z by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` from pred_{val,test}.npz / metrics_{val,test}.json / run json / `aide/results/kv2/*.json` only (locked protocol: driver `first`, grid `floor`, val HM top 40 (threshold 83.33 px, NEVER a ranking statistic), test HM top 60 (threshold 72.05 px), PCK @ 96 px; every run selected on val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights only, test evaluated once by the harness). Δ = paired per-clip difference (negative = better for errors, positive = better for PCK), CI = clip-bootstrap percentile interval. **Verdict rule (as `arch_attribution.md`): BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and |Δ| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE.** Confirmatory cells need all 5 seeds; otherwise "pending". | |
| ## 0. Pre-registration (verbatim decisions row) and timestamp check | |
| - S0 UTC: **2026-09-14T22:51:07Z**; earliest programme run `t_start_utc`: **2026-09-14T23:08:22Z** (21 programme runs finished of 188 possible names); runs started at or before S0: none. | |
| > | 2026-09-14 | **K-v2 programme — S0 pre-registration (CockpitWM-K improvement; new model file `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py`, `--model cwm3d_v2`; approved plan `<local-notes>/plans/elegant-dazzling-stallman.md` Part A; row written at S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z BEFORE any K-v2 / MB-grid run; the same UTC is in `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt` and protocol C23).** **Honesty clause**: the K-v2 design (hierarchical part trunk kept; joint tokens + 2 spatial blocks + attention pooling; lean shared read-out; onset-hazard head gating the anchor mixture) was motivated by the TEST diagnostics of `arch_attribution.md` §3.2 (K vs MotionBERT-kp: right hand +0.71, body +0.28, h=2–4 +0.2–0.3, HM h=3/4 +2.4/+2.0) → therefore ALL K-v2 configuration choices are fixed on VAL only, and MotionBERT-kp (MB) receives the same val selection budget (S3, 10 val points each). **Locked protocol unchanged**: val-only selection on All-MPJPE of the EMA weights; the official test split is evaluated exactly once per run by the existing harness (append-only `results.csv`); no flip TTA; ensembles only as separately labelled rows; Stage-A recipe verbatim (`--lr 3e-4 --wd 0.05 --warmup 10 --epochs 200 --bs 32 --ema 0.999 --clip 1.0 --patience 40 --aug-window 1 --noise-px 2.0 --joint-drop 0.1 --translate 20 --scale 0.05 --flip-p 0`; K loss defaults euc + 0.1 NLL + 0.05 bone + 0.01 jerk; tensor-output models add `--loss euc`); paired per-clip clip-bootstrap 10,000 resamples seed 0 (`aide/eval/metrics.paired_diff`); verdict rule of `arch_attribution.md`: BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4/5) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and \|Δ\| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE. Every decision below is computed mechanically by `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py` from `pred_val.npz` + `harness.load_split("val")` (+ `metrics.hm_mask` on val) and written as UTC-stamped json in `aide/results/kv2/` (`s1_decision.json`, `s1b_<cfg>_decision.json`, `s3_decision.json`, `pretrain_check_<cfg>.json`); downstream runs may start only after the corresponding json exists. **S1 val screen (seed 42, n = 405)**: 9 configs vs the existing `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2` (val All 55.367): `cwm3d_v2_s42_v2` (full), `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2` (`--no-v2-spatial`), `_khead` (`--no-lean-head`, K's per-part read-out), `_nohaz` (`--no-hazard`), `_hazaux` (`--haz-mod 0`: hazard BCE on, gating off), `_plain` (`--no-physics --w-nll 0`), `_q060` / `_q090` (`--haz-quantile 0.60 / 0.90`), `_lam03` (`--haz-weight 0.3`); statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All (config − K); **SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px** (≈ 1.4 val seed-sd); at most 2 survivors (ranked by mean Δ; candidates within 0.10 px of each other are ties → the one with FEWER components wins, components = enabled optional modules of {spatial blocks, lean head, hazard BCE, hazard gating, physics+NLL} — full / q060 / q090 / lam03 = 5, nospatial / khead / hazaux / plain = 4, nohaz = 3; remaining ties by name); **HM guard (never a selection statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 px AND its CI excludes 0**. The 40-clip val HM subset is never used for ranking (level CI width ≈ 37 px vs 8.3 for val All; seed sd 0.93 vs 0.21; val HM threshold 83.3 px ≠ test 72.05 px). Test numbers of S1 runs are produced once by the trainer as usual and are RECORDED, never used for any decision. **S1b**: each survivor at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE to seeds 456 / 789 / 1011 iff Δ val(123) < 0 AND the two-seed mean ≤ −0.25 px; otherwise stop and report "val-killed at seed 123". **S2 (5 seeds 42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), without and with BATON trunk-only init**: K-v2's tokenizer / trunk tensors differ from K's → own pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (`pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --seed 123`: same corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, bs 256, 6 epochs, held-out-route selection, `--zeroshot 0` = no zero-shot test evaluation) UNLESS `kv2_gate.py pretrain-check <cfg>` (dry `train_kp.load_init_ckpt(parts="trunk")` of the survivor model on CPU against `aide/results/runs/cwm3d_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123/ckpt_best.pt`) reports n_skipped_shape = 0 AND zero missing TRUNK_PREFIXES tensors, in which case K's checkpoint is reused; fine-tunes `cwm3d_v2_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2` (`--init-parts trunk`); K's own +pre arm is completed to 5 seeds with `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` (recipe and init of the existing s42/123/456 runs verbatim). **S3 MB fairness arm**: (i) same-budget val grid at seed 42: `motionbert_kp_{d192, L4, lr1e-4, lr1e-3, wd0.01, wd0.1, do0.1, d192_L4, d192_L4_do0.1}_s42_v2` (`--model motionbert_kp[_d192][_L4]` name-encoded width / depth, `--lr`, `--wd`, `--dropout` flags; `--loss euc`) + the existing default `motionbert_kp_s42_v2` = 10 val points = S1's 10; **MB-best = argmin val All** (ties within 0.10 px → fewer parameters); if MB-best ≠ default it is run at the 5 seeds; (ii) MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds: `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` are run UNCONDITIONALLY (completing the attribution table); if MB-best changes lr / wd / dropout only, the existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint is reused (`motionbert_kp_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`); if MB-best changes d or L, a new pretraining `motionbert_kp_<tag>_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (same corpus / schedule) precedes 5 fine-tunes. **K-v2(best)** = the S2 survivor with the lowest mean VAL All over its finished seeds (ties 0.10 → fewer components); with one survivor it is that one. **PRIMARY (two co-primary endpoints, test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state, beats rule above)**: P1 = K-v2(best) − MB-best (no pretraining); P2 = K-v2(best)+pre − MB-best+pre. **ADOPTION**: A1 = K-v2(best) − `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2` BEATS on All over 5 seeds → K-v2 becomes the main-table CockpitWM-K row (K's row itself unchanged), otherwise K-v2 is an ablation row; A2 = K-v2(best)+pre − K+pre (`cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`) BEATS → the "+ BATON trunk" row. **SECONDARY (descriptive with CIs, never an adoption basis)**: d-n, HM, PCK@0.05, HM h=5, per-part, per-horizon, AUC of the hazard probability haz_P against HM membership. **Paper-wording consequence table** (mirrors the 2026-09-14 attribution row): P1 ∧ P2 BEATS → an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged); P1 BEATS ∧ ¬P2 → "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises", attribution sentence kept; ¬P1 ∧ P2 → "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk", attribution sentence kept; neither → wording unchanged verbatim, K-v2 = ablation family + `gen_tables.py` NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE is reported as is. **Multiplicity**: ≤ 9 (S1) + 18 (S2) + 2 (K+pre seeds) + 9 (S3 i) + 4 (MB-best seeds) + 7 (S3 ii) ≈ 49 new single test evaluations, each required by the protocol, none used for selection; confirmatory claims are exactly P1, P2, A1, A2. **Already published numbers untouched**; all results only in the new table `aide/results/tables/kv2_program.md` (+ .json) written by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` (reads only pred_{val,test}.npz, metrics_{val,test}.json, run json; append-only; machine-readable line `**ADOPTION A1: ADOPTED\|NOT ADOPTED**`). **Execution**: `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` lanes A (S1 → gate s1), B (S3 i → gate s3 → MB-best seeds / +pre), C (`motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`), D (pretrain-check → v2 pretraining if needed → S1b → gate s1b → seeds ± pre); every launch passes the project gate (free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, `pgrep -fc "python.*(train_cwm3\|train_kp\|pretrain)"` < 4, OMP/MKL 4; `setsid nohup bash`; a run whose run json exists is never re-run; pids in `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`); `--no-lock --max-minutes 45`, `--notes "kv2_program;<stage>;cfg=<cfg>"`; `--refs zvshrink=zv_shrink_val,simlpe=simlpe_kp_s<k or 42>_v2,kp=cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2,mb=motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2` (+ `seedinit=<model>_s<k>_v2` for +pre runs; refs are evaluation-only). Lanes A / D start only after `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py` exists and `pytest -q aide/tests/test_cwm3d_v2.py` passes. Honest expectation (recorded): HM likely improves, All likely still ties MB; every result enters the table regardless. | plan Part A §A.2–A.4; `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`, `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py`, `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh`, `aide/tests/test_kv2.py`, `aide/models/motionbert_kp.py::build` (name variants), `aide/docs/protocol.md` C23, `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt`; motivation `aide/results/tables/arch_attribution.md` §3.2 | Every K-v2 / MB-grid run json must have `t_start_utc` later than 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z (checked by `report_kv2_program.py` §0); gate json must predate the downstream launches; "S1 outcome" and final "K-v2 outcome" rows + C23 outcome follow; paper text changes only after the outcome, per the consequence table | | |
| ## 1. S1 val screen (seed 42; statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All vs `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2`; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px; ≤ 2 survivors, ties 0.10 → fewer components; HM guard KILL iff Δ val HM > +3.0 with CI excl. 0 — the val HM column is SECONDARY) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s1_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:45:48Z (complete = True). Rule: paired per-clip Δ val All (config − cwm3d_kp_s42_v2), n = 405, 10000 clip-bootstrap seed 0; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ -0.3 px; ≤ 2 survivors ranked by mean Δ, ties within 0.1 px -> fewer components (full/q060/q090/lam03 = 5, nospatial/khead/hazaux/plain = 4, nohaz = 3); HM guard (never a ranking statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 AND CI excl. 0. | |
| | cfg | run | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All [CI] | Δ val HM [CI] (secondary) | guard | S1 status | test All (recorded, not used) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | K (baseline) | cwm3d_kp_s42_v2 | — | 5771449 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) / 0.6 | 55.367 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 48.767 | | |
| | full | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | (full) | 2736282 | 75 / 116 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.25 | 55.170 | -0.197 [-0.798,+0.387] | +0.60 [-2.54,+3.45] | ok | KILL | 48.696 | | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | --no-v2-spatial | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 1.69 | 54.788 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.64 [-4.19,+1.99] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.267 | | |
| | khead | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | --no-lean-head | 5091964 | 52 / 93 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.75 | 55.482 | +0.115 [-0.442,+0.662] | +1.06 [-1.16,+3.09] | ok | KILL | 48.642 | | |
| | nohaz | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | --no-hazard | 2702199 | 106 / 147 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.71 | 55.325 | -0.042 [-0.873,+0.723] | +2.94 [-0.38,+6.86] | ok | KILL | 48.648 | | |
| | hazaux | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | --haz-mod 0 | 2736267 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.51 | 55.140 | -0.227 [-0.888,+0.393] | +2.41 [+0.04,+4.95] | ok | KILL | 48.592 | | |
| | plain | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | --no-physics --w-nll 0 | 2736282 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.69 | 55.218 | -0.149 [-0.722,+0.397] | +1.73 [-0.72,+4.18] | ok | KILL | 48.728 | | |
| | q060 | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.60 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.32 | 55.320 | -0.047 [-0.674,+0.606] | +3.26 [+0.21,+7.50] | KILL | KILL | 48.704 | | |
| | q090 | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.90 | 2736282 | 71 / 112 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.19 | 55.128 | -0.239 [-0.774,+0.291] | +1.33 [-1.27,+4.02] | ok | KILL | 48.380 | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | --haz-weight 0.3 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.51 | 55.019 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | +1.92 [-0.73,+5.20] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.512 | | |
| **S1 survivors (decision): nospatial, lam03.** | |
| ### 1.1 S1b (survivors at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE iff Δ val(123) < 0 and 2-seed mean ≤ −0.25) | |
| | cfg | seed-123 run | val All | Δ val All s42 [CI] | Δ val All s123 [CI] | 2-seed mean | decision | source | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | pending | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | pending | pending | PENDING | live | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | pending | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | pending | pending | PENDING | live | | |
| **S1b: continuing to 5 seeds: none yet.** | |
| ## 2. S2 — 5 seeds (42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), TEST (one evaluation per run), K-v2 survivors without / with BATON trunk-only init | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123`: not run / not finished; pretrain-check: —. | |
| _(no K-v2 config has reached S2 yet)_ | |
| ## 3. S3 — MotionBERT-kp fairness arm (same val budget: 9 new grid points + existing default = 10; MB-best = argmin val All, ties 0.10 → fewer params) | |
| - Decision source: no complete `s3_decision.json` yet — LIVE recomputation (not a decision). Rule: MB-best = argmin val All over the 10 grid points (9 new + existing default); ties within 0.1 px -> fewer parameters. | |
| | cfg | run | model | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All vs default [CI] | test All (recorded, not used) | S3 | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | (default) | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.6 | 55.550 | +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] | 48.279 | | | |
| | d192 | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192 | (default) | 1809440 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 6.14 | 55.559 | +0.009 [-0.573,+0.575] | 48.595 | | | |
| | L4 | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_L4 | (default) | 1077664 | 82 / 123 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.71 | 55.433 | -0.117 [-0.572,+0.313] | 48.488 | | | |
| | lr1e-4 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-4 | 813088 | 79 / 120 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.18 | 55.310 | -0.240 [-0.773,+0.247] | 48.493 | | | |
| | lr1e-3 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-3 | 813088 | 60 / 101 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.75 | 55.281 | -0.269 [-0.732,+0.131] | 48.394 | | | |
| | wd0.01 | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.01 | 813088 | 73 / 114 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.15 | 55.366 | -0.184 [-0.659,+0.199] | 48.342 | | | |
| | wd0.1 | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.1 | 813088 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.83 | 55.603 | +0.053 [-0.324,+0.440] | 48.424 | | | |
| | do0.1 | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --dropout 0.1 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.89 | 55.215 | -0.335 [-0.888,+0.129] | 48.389 | **MB-best** | | |
| | d192_L4 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | (default) | 2402912 | 67 / 108 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.18 | 55.399 | -0.151 [-0.632,+0.325] | 48.418 | | | |
| | d192_L4_do0.1 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | --dropout 0.1 | — | pending | pending | pending | — | PENDING | | |
| **MB-best = do0.1** (provisional — S3 incomplete or no decision json; model motionbert_kp, flags ['--dropout', '0.1']; changes d/L: False → existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint reused). | |
| ### 3.1 MB-best and MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds; K + pre completion (test levels) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.6 | 55.550 | 48.28 [44.53, 52.37] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.377] | 130.34 [108.20, 158.53] | 87.17 [86.04, 88.28] | 163.95 [119.85, 223.86] | | |
| | 42 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.94 | 54.528 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 128.03 [105.81, 156.47] | 87.46 [86.37, 88.54] | 159.20 [115.09, 219.85] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.89 | 55.215 | 48.39 [44.59, 52.49] | 2.197 [2.024, 2.383] | 130.48 [107.84, 158.95] | 87.26 [86.15, 88.36] | 163.78 [118.78, 224.72] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 42 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 5771449 | 31 / 72 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.48 | 55.003 | 47.98 [44.28, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.010, 2.363] | 128.43 [106.25, 157.11] | 87.21 [86.10, 88.30] | 159.35 [115.56, 219.46] | | |
| | 123 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s123_v2 | 813088 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.36 | 55.627 | 48.38 [44.65, 52.46] | 2.196 [2.027, 2.381] | 129.16 [106.70, 157.58] | 87.14 [86.02, 88.27] | 162.59 [118.87, 222.08] | | |
| | 123 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 38 / 79 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.16 | 54.720 | 47.53 [43.87, 51.55] | 2.158 [1.992, 2.340] | 126.11 [103.96, 154.69] | 87.40 [86.32, 88.46] | 156.47 [113.00, 215.99] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 123 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 123 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 5771449 | 33 / 74 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.88 | 54.828 | 48.04 [44.33, 52.11] | 2.181 [2.012, 2.365] | 129.13 [106.80, 157.67] | 87.20 [86.07, 88.32] | 160.11 [116.11, 220.04] | | |
| | 456 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s456_v2 | 813088 | 90 / 131 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.17 | 55.166 | 48.48 [44.74, 52.58] | 2.201 [2.031, 2.387] | 130.23 [107.78, 158.89] | 87.14 [86.00, 88.25] | 162.24 [116.93, 223.50] | | |
| | 456 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.68 | 54.797 | 47.91 [44.22, 51.93] | 2.175 [2.008, 2.357] | 127.59 [105.28, 156.14] | 87.39 [86.28, 88.47] | 158.92 [114.76, 219.74] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 5771449 | 36 / 77 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.91 | 54.670 | 48.01 [44.31, 52.12] | 2.179 [2.011, 2.366] | 128.51 [106.16, 157.20] | 87.16 [86.02, 88.27] | 159.02 [115.09, 219.40] | | |
| | 789 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s789_v2 | 813088 | 77 / 118 / early_stop(patience=40) | 6.14 | 55.134 | 48.46 [44.71, 52.57] | 2.200 [2.030, 2.386] | 130.66 [108.19, 159.30] | 87.27 [86.16, 88.36] | 163.04 [118.30, 223.77] | | |
| | 789 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.45 | 54.882 | 47.55 [43.88, 51.56] | 2.159 [1.992, 2.341] | 127.71 [105.39, 156.61] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.48] | 159.11 [114.88, 219.30] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 5771449 | 35 / 76 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.22 | 54.590 | 48.12 [44.44, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.017, 2.370] | 129.32 [107.17, 157.78] | 87.06 [85.94, 88.18] | 161.39 [117.32, 221.77] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.69 | 55.506 | 48.68 [44.92, 52.82] | 2.210 [2.039, 2.398] | 131.49 [108.92, 160.13] | 86.97 [85.81, 88.12] | 166.22 [121.36, 227.01] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 47 / 88 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.98 | 54.868 | 47.85 [44.16, 51.87] | 2.172 [2.005, 2.355] | 129.47 [107.17, 157.92] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.49] | 160.75 [116.16, 221.59] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 5771449 | 34 / 75 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.14 | 54.609 | 48.11 [44.40, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.016, 2.370] | 128.73 [106.48, 157.39] | 87.03 [85.91, 88.16] | 159.72 [115.63, 220.35] | | |
| #### Δ = MB-best[do0.1]+pre − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 0) | |
| _(pending)_ | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − K, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.79 [-1.29,-0.30] | -0.62 [-1.17,-0.11] | -0.45 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.43 [-0.88,+0.03] | -0.46 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.55 ± 0.15 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.036 [-0.059,-0.014] | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.005] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.019 [-0.040,+0.001] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.025 ± 0.007 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -4.06 [-6.57,-1.74] | -1.92 [-4.14,+0.22] | -2.86 [-5.09,-0.73] | -2.41 [-4.43,-0.48] | -2.49 [-4.79,-0.27] | -2.75 ± 0.81 | BEATS | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.20 [-0.05,+0.45] | +0.22 [-0.07,+0.52] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.06 [-0.16,+0.28] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.11 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.85 [-8.95,-1.00] | -3.25 [-6.97,+0.55] | -3.53 [-7.22,+0.08] | -1.65 [-5.11,+1.98] | -3.98 [-8.22,+0.07] | -3.45 ± 1.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 1) | |
| | cell | A s42 | B s42 | Δ s42 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.77 | 48.39 | +0.38 [-0.21,+0.96] | +0.38 ± nan | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.214 | 2.197 | +0.017 [-0.010,+0.044] | +0.017 ± nan | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 132.49 | 130.48 | +2.01 [-0.71,+4.80] | +2.01 ± nan | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 87.26 | -0.25 [-0.54,+0.01] | -0.25 ± nan | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 164.19 | 163.78 | +0.41 [-4.94,+5.58] | +0.41 ± nan | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (descriptive; n = 0) | |
| _(pending)_ | |
| ## 4. Primary endpoints and adoption (test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state; BEATS rule, 4/5) | |
| - K-v2(best) = **pending** (lowest mean VAL All over finished seeds among S1b-continued survivors; ties 0.10 → fewer components): no continued survivor with finished seeds. | |
| | endpoint | n seeds | Δ All per seed [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | secondary (HM / PCK@0.05 / HM h=5 / d-n verdicts) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | P1 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | P2 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | A1 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| | A2 | 0 | pending (no K-v2(best) yet) | — | PENDING | — | | |
| ### 4.1 Paper-wording consequence table (pre-registered; the realised row is marked) | |
| | case | wording consequence | realised | | |
| |---|---|---| | |
| | P1 ∧ P2 | an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged) | pending | | |
| | P1 ∧ ¬P2 | "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises"; attribution sentence kept | pending | | |
| | ¬P1 ∧ P2 | "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk"; attribution sentence kept | pending | | |
| | neither | wording unchanged verbatim; K-v2 = ablation family + gen_tables.py NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE reported as is | pending | | |
| **ADOPTION A1: NOT ADOPTED** (pending — no K-v2(best) yet; NOT ADOPTED is the conservative default until 5 seeds are final) | |
| **ADOPTION A2: NOT ADOPTED** (pending — no K-v2(best) yet) | |
| - Consequence-table row: **pending (P1 / P2 not final)**. Any WORSE verdict above is reported as is. | |
| ## 5. GPU minutes of the programme's new runs (from run json; the GPU was shared with a DMS feature-extraction job and other lanes, so minutes are wall-clock upper bounds) | |
| | run | GPU min | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.14 | | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.22 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | 4.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | 4.75 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 5.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | 5.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 1.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | 3.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | 4.32 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | 4.19 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | 2.25 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | 4.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 3.98 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 3.45 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | 5.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | 6.14 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.89 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | 2.75 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | 3.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | 3.15 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | 2.83 | | |
| | **total (21 runs)** | **78.2** | | |
| ## 6. Provenance | |
| - Inputs: `pred_val.npz` / `pred_test.npz` / `metrics_val.json` / `metrics_test.json` / `run_<name>_<utc>.json` under `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/runs`; gate decisions `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/kv2`: s1_decision.json, s1_decision_20260914T234548Z.json, s3_decision.json, s3_decision_20260914T230840Z.json; pre-registration row from `/home/USER/cwm3/docs/decisions.md` (S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z). | |
| - Comparison runs `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2`, `motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2`, `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2` are the EXISTING runs (never retrained); every programme run is a new run dir. | |
| - Selection: val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights inside the trainer; S1 / S1b / S3 decisions from pred_val.npz only (`aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`); one test evaluation per run by the harness; no test number was used for any decision. | |
| - Launcher `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` (gate: free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, < 4 trainers, OMP/MKL 4; finished runs skipped); pids `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`. | |
| - Pending runs referenced above: 3. This block is append-only; earlier blocks are never edited. | |
| - Trainer code hashes (`code_sha256` of each finished programme run's run json; distinct values = code changed between launches, e.g. the train_kp.py:630 guard fix of 2026-09-14T23:11:53Z, behaviour-neutral for dict-output models — see `aide/results/kv2/NOTES.md`): `e313c0ff89746293` (10 runs: motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2); `8caba4a8efccd311` (8 runs: cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2); `22306515fd4a42a0` (2 runs: cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2); `652c4ba49ba937f2` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_s42_v2). | |
| --- | |
| <!-- appended regeneration 20260915T012920Z --> | |
| # K-v2 programme — CockpitWM-K improvement, pre-registered 2026-09-14 (protocol C23) — val n = 405 (selection), test n = 609 (one evaluation per run), paired per-clip bootstrap (10000) | |
| Generated 20260915T012920Z by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` from pred_{val,test}.npz / metrics_{val,test}.json / run json / `aide/results/kv2/*.json` only (locked protocol: driver `first`, grid `floor`, val HM top 40 (threshold 83.33 px, NEVER a ranking statistic), test HM top 60 (threshold 72.05 px), PCK @ 96 px; every run selected on val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights only, test evaluated once by the harness). Δ = paired per-clip difference (negative = better for errors, positive = better for PCK), CI = clip-bootstrap percentile interval. **Verdict rule (as `arch_attribution.md`): BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and |Δ| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE.** Confirmatory cells need all 5 seeds; otherwise "pending". | |
| ## 0. Pre-registration (verbatim decisions row) and timestamp check | |
| - S0 UTC: **2026-09-14T22:51:07Z**; earliest programme run `t_start_utc`: **2026-09-14T23:08:22Z** (42 programme runs finished of 189 possible names); runs started at or before S0: none. | |
| > | 2026-09-14 | **K-v2 programme — S0 pre-registration (CockpitWM-K improvement; new model file `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py`, `--model cwm3d_v2`; approved plan `<local-notes>/plans/elegant-dazzling-stallman.md` Part A; row written at S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z BEFORE any K-v2 / MB-grid run; the same UTC is in `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt` and protocol C23).** **Honesty clause**: the K-v2 design (hierarchical part trunk kept; joint tokens + 2 spatial blocks + attention pooling; lean shared read-out; onset-hazard head gating the anchor mixture) was motivated by the TEST diagnostics of `arch_attribution.md` §3.2 (K vs MotionBERT-kp: right hand +0.71, body +0.28, h=2–4 +0.2–0.3, HM h=3/4 +2.4/+2.0) → therefore ALL K-v2 configuration choices are fixed on VAL only, and MotionBERT-kp (MB) receives the same val selection budget (S3, 10 val points each). **Locked protocol unchanged**: val-only selection on All-MPJPE of the EMA weights; the official test split is evaluated exactly once per run by the existing harness (append-only `results.csv`); no flip TTA; ensembles only as separately labelled rows; Stage-A recipe verbatim (`--lr 3e-4 --wd 0.05 --warmup 10 --epochs 200 --bs 32 --ema 0.999 --clip 1.0 --patience 40 --aug-window 1 --noise-px 2.0 --joint-drop 0.1 --translate 20 --scale 0.05 --flip-p 0`; K loss defaults euc + 0.1 NLL + 0.05 bone + 0.01 jerk; tensor-output models add `--loss euc`); paired per-clip clip-bootstrap 10,000 resamples seed 0 (`aide/eval/metrics.paired_diff`); verdict rule of `arch_attribution.md`: BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4/5) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and \|Δ\| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE. Every decision below is computed mechanically by `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py` from `pred_val.npz` + `harness.load_split("val")` (+ `metrics.hm_mask` on val) and written as UTC-stamped json in `aide/results/kv2/` (`s1_decision.json`, `s1b_<cfg>_decision.json`, `s3_decision.json`, `pretrain_check_<cfg>.json`); downstream runs may start only after the corresponding json exists. **S1 val screen (seed 42, n = 405)**: 9 configs vs the existing `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2` (val All 55.367): `cwm3d_v2_s42_v2` (full), `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2` (`--no-v2-spatial`), `_khead` (`--no-lean-head`, K's per-part read-out), `_nohaz` (`--no-hazard`), `_hazaux` (`--haz-mod 0`: hazard BCE on, gating off), `_plain` (`--no-physics --w-nll 0`), `_q060` / `_q090` (`--haz-quantile 0.60 / 0.90`), `_lam03` (`--haz-weight 0.3`); statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All (config − K); **SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px** (≈ 1.4 val seed-sd); at most 2 survivors (ranked by mean Δ; candidates within 0.10 px of each other are ties → the one with FEWER components wins, components = enabled optional modules of {spatial blocks, lean head, hazard BCE, hazard gating, physics+NLL} — full / q060 / q090 / lam03 = 5, nospatial / khead / hazaux / plain = 4, nohaz = 3; remaining ties by name); **HM guard (never a selection statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 px AND its CI excludes 0**. The 40-clip val HM subset is never used for ranking (level CI width ≈ 37 px vs 8.3 for val All; seed sd 0.93 vs 0.21; val HM threshold 83.3 px ≠ test 72.05 px). Test numbers of S1 runs are produced once by the trainer as usual and are RECORDED, never used for any decision. **S1b**: each survivor at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE to seeds 456 / 789 / 1011 iff Δ val(123) < 0 AND the two-seed mean ≤ −0.25 px; otherwise stop and report "val-killed at seed 123". **S2 (5 seeds 42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), without and with BATON trunk-only init**: K-v2's tokenizer / trunk tensors differ from K's → own pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (`pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --seed 123`: same corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, bs 256, 6 epochs, held-out-route selection, `--zeroshot 0` = no zero-shot test evaluation) UNLESS `kv2_gate.py pretrain-check <cfg>` (dry `train_kp.load_init_ckpt(parts="trunk")` of the survivor model on CPU against `aide/results/runs/cwm3d_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123/ckpt_best.pt`) reports n_skipped_shape = 0 AND zero missing TRUNK_PREFIXES tensors, in which case K's checkpoint is reused; fine-tunes `cwm3d_v2_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2` (`--init-parts trunk`); K's own +pre arm is completed to 5 seeds with `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` (recipe and init of the existing s42/123/456 runs verbatim). **S3 MB fairness arm**: (i) same-budget val grid at seed 42: `motionbert_kp_{d192, L4, lr1e-4, lr1e-3, wd0.01, wd0.1, do0.1, d192_L4, d192_L4_do0.1}_s42_v2` (`--model motionbert_kp[_d192][_L4]` name-encoded width / depth, `--lr`, `--wd`, `--dropout` flags; `--loss euc`) + the existing default `motionbert_kp_s42_v2` = 10 val points = S1's 10; **MB-best = argmin val All** (ties within 0.10 px → fewer parameters); if MB-best ≠ default it is run at the 5 seeds; (ii) MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds: `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` are run UNCONDITIONALLY (completing the attribution table); if MB-best changes lr / wd / dropout only, the existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint is reused (`motionbert_kp_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`); if MB-best changes d or L, a new pretraining `motionbert_kp_<tag>_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (same corpus / schedule) precedes 5 fine-tunes. **K-v2(best)** = the S2 survivor with the lowest mean VAL All over its finished seeds (ties 0.10 → fewer components); with one survivor it is that one. **PRIMARY (two co-primary endpoints, test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state, beats rule above)**: P1 = K-v2(best) − MB-best (no pretraining); P2 = K-v2(best)+pre − MB-best+pre. **ADOPTION**: A1 = K-v2(best) − `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2` BEATS on All over 5 seeds → K-v2 becomes the main-table CockpitWM-K row (K's row itself unchanged), otherwise K-v2 is an ablation row; A2 = K-v2(best)+pre − K+pre (`cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`) BEATS → the "+ BATON trunk" row. **SECONDARY (descriptive with CIs, never an adoption basis)**: d-n, HM, PCK@0.05, HM h=5, per-part, per-horizon, AUC of the hazard probability haz_P against HM membership. **Paper-wording consequence table** (mirrors the 2026-09-14 attribution row): P1 ∧ P2 BEATS → an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged); P1 BEATS ∧ ¬P2 → "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises", attribution sentence kept; ¬P1 ∧ P2 → "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk", attribution sentence kept; neither → wording unchanged verbatim, K-v2 = ablation family + `gen_tables.py` NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE is reported as is. **Multiplicity**: ≤ 9 (S1) + 18 (S2) + 2 (K+pre seeds) + 9 (S3 i) + 4 (MB-best seeds) + 7 (S3 ii) ≈ 49 new single test evaluations, each required by the protocol, none used for selection; confirmatory claims are exactly P1, P2, A1, A2. **Already published numbers untouched**; all results only in the new table `aide/results/tables/kv2_program.md` (+ .json) written by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` (reads only pred_{val,test}.npz, metrics_{val,test}.json, run json; append-only; machine-readable line `**ADOPTION A1: ADOPTED\|NOT ADOPTED**`). **Execution**: `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` lanes A (S1 → gate s1), B (S3 i → gate s3 → MB-best seeds / +pre), C (`motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`), D (pretrain-check → v2 pretraining if needed → S1b → gate s1b → seeds ± pre); every launch passes the project gate (free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, `pgrep -fc "python.*(train_cwm3\|train_kp\|pretrain)"` < 4, OMP/MKL 4; `setsid nohup bash`; a run whose run json exists is never re-run; pids in `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`); `--no-lock --max-minutes 45`, `--notes "kv2_program;<stage>;cfg=<cfg>"`; `--refs zvshrink=zv_shrink_val,simlpe=simlpe_kp_s<k or 42>_v2,kp=cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2,mb=motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2` (+ `seedinit=<model>_s<k>_v2` for +pre runs; refs are evaluation-only). Lanes A / D start only after `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py` exists and `pytest -q aide/tests/test_cwm3d_v2.py` passes. Honest expectation (recorded): HM likely improves, All likely still ties MB; every result enters the table regardless. | plan Part A §A.2–A.4; `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`, `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py`, `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh`, `aide/tests/test_kv2.py`, `aide/models/motionbert_kp.py::build` (name variants), `aide/docs/protocol.md` C23, `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt`; motivation `aide/results/tables/arch_attribution.md` §3.2 | Every K-v2 / MB-grid run json must have `t_start_utc` later than 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z (checked by `report_kv2_program.py` §0); gate json must predate the downstream launches; "S1 outcome" and final "K-v2 outcome" rows + C23 outcome follow; paper text changes only after the outcome, per the consequence table | | |
| ## 1. S1 val screen (seed 42; statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All vs `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2`; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px; ≤ 2 survivors, ties 0.10 → fewer components; HM guard KILL iff Δ val HM > +3.0 with CI excl. 0 — the val HM column is SECONDARY) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s1_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:45:48Z (complete = True). Rule: paired per-clip Δ val All (config − cwm3d_kp_s42_v2), n = 405, 10000 clip-bootstrap seed 0; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ -0.3 px; ≤ 2 survivors ranked by mean Δ, ties within 0.1 px -> fewer components (full/q060/q090/lam03 = 5, nospatial/khead/hazaux/plain = 4, nohaz = 3); HM guard (never a ranking statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 AND CI excl. 0. | |
| | cfg | run | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All [CI] | Δ val HM [CI] (secondary) | guard | S1 status | test All (recorded, not used) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | K (baseline) | cwm3d_kp_s42_v2 | — | 5771449 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) / 0.6 | 55.367 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 48.767 | | |
| | full | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | (full) | 2736282 | 75 / 116 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.25 | 55.170 | -0.197 [-0.798,+0.387] | +0.60 [-2.54,+3.45] | ok | KILL | 48.696 | | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | --no-v2-spatial | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 1.69 | 54.788 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.64 [-4.19,+1.99] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.267 | | |
| | khead | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | --no-lean-head | 5091964 | 52 / 93 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.75 | 55.482 | +0.115 [-0.442,+0.662] | +1.06 [-1.16,+3.09] | ok | KILL | 48.642 | | |
| | nohaz | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | --no-hazard | 2702199 | 106 / 147 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.71 | 55.325 | -0.042 [-0.873,+0.723] | +2.94 [-0.38,+6.86] | ok | KILL | 48.648 | | |
| | hazaux | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | --haz-mod 0 | 2736267 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.51 | 55.140 | -0.227 [-0.888,+0.393] | +2.41 [+0.04,+4.95] | ok | KILL | 48.592 | | |
| | plain | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | --no-physics --w-nll 0 | 2736282 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.69 | 55.218 | -0.149 [-0.722,+0.397] | +1.73 [-0.72,+4.18] | ok | KILL | 48.728 | | |
| | q060 | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.60 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.32 | 55.320 | -0.047 [-0.674,+0.606] | +3.26 [+0.21,+7.50] | KILL | KILL | 48.704 | | |
| | q090 | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.90 | 2736282 | 71 / 112 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.19 | 55.128 | -0.239 [-0.774,+0.291] | +1.33 [-1.27,+4.02] | ok | KILL | 48.380 | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | --haz-weight 0.3 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.51 | 55.019 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | +1.92 [-0.73,+5.20] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.512 | | |
| **S1 survivors (decision): nospatial, lam03.** | |
| ### 1.1 S1b (survivors at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE iff Δ val(123) < 0 and 2-seed mean ≤ −0.25) | |
| | cfg | seed-123 run | val All | Δ val All s42 [CI] | Δ val All s123 [CI] | 2-seed mean | decision | source | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 54.801 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.566 [-1.121,-0.038] | -0.573 | CONTINUE | decision json 2026-09-15T00:00:38Z | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 55.297 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | -0.070 [-0.678,+0.534] | -0.209 | KILLED | decision json 2026-09-15T00:00:39Z | | |
| **S1b: continuing to 5 seeds: nospatial.** | |
| ## 2. S2 — 5 seeds (42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), TEST (one evaluation per run), K-v2 survivors without / with BATON trunk-only init | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (architecture-matched trunk for lam03): not run / not finished. | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (architecture-matched trunk for nospatial): finished (6 epochs, best epoch 5, held-out All 27.18, 10.72 GPU-min, corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, command `aide/train/pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --no-v2-spatial --seed 123 --name cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123 --zeroshot 0`). | |
| - pretrain-check `nospatial`: vs K checkpoint → NEED_V2_PRETRAIN (loaded 47 / 54 trunk tensors, shape-skipped 0, missing 7); vs own pretraining → trunk_complete = True (loaded 54 / 54, shape-skipped 0, missing 0). | |
| - pretrain-check `lam03`: vs K checkpoint → no json (loaded — / — trunk tensors, shape-skipped —, missing —); vs own pretraining → no json. | |
| ### 2.1 `nospatial` (--no-v2-spatial) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.69 | 54.788 | 48.27 [44.54, 52.40] | 2.191 [2.022, 2.379] | 128.74 [106.37, 157.12] | 87.10 [85.94, 88.24] | 159.70 [116.06, 218.87] | | |
| | 42 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.21 | 54.689 | 47.98 [44.26, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.009, 2.363] | 128.58 [106.36, 156.90] | 87.20 [86.08, 88.32] | 159.20 [115.08, 219.21] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 2666906 | 84 / 125 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.71 | 54.801 | 48.53 [44.75, 52.63] | 2.203 [2.031, 2.389] | 129.11 [106.68, 157.62] | 86.95 [85.78, 88.12] | 161.40 [117.80, 220.27] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 2666906 | 42 / 83 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.09 | 54.321 | 47.95 [44.22, 52.05] | 2.177 [2.007, 2.363] | 129.25 [106.85, 157.68] | 87.29 [86.15, 88.40] | 160.85 [116.52, 221.12] | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2 | 2666906 | 91 / 132 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.67 | 55.150 | 48.53 [44.76, 52.59] | 2.203 [2.032, 2.388] | 129.92 [107.92, 158.13] | 87.01 [85.86, 88.16] | 160.73 [117.34, 219.34] | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.12 | 54.352 | 48.04 [44.34, 52.10] | 2.181 [2.013, 2.365] | 128.45 [106.26, 156.89] | 87.09 [85.95, 88.21] | 159.24 [115.23, 219.46] | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2 | 2666906 | 80 / 121 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.65 | 55.048 | 48.44 [44.65, 52.56] | 2.199 [2.027, 2.386] | 130.96 [108.49, 159.39] | 86.96 [85.82, 88.10] | 161.72 [117.96, 220.66] | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 2666906 | 40 / 81 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.08 | 54.710 | 47.81 [44.12, 51.85] | 2.170 [2.003, 2.354] | 128.48 [106.16, 157.11] | 87.25 [86.14, 88.36] | 159.53 [115.32, 219.61] | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2 | 2666906 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.58 | 54.744 | 48.30 [44.53, 52.43] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.380] | 131.03 [108.45, 159.36] | 87.09 [85.94, 88.23] | 164.10 [120.54, 222.22] | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.12 | 54.559 | 48.10 [44.37, 52.18] | 2.183 [2.014, 2.369] | 129.87 [107.84, 158.26] | 87.28 [86.16, 88.39] | 161.58 [118.12, 220.56] | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − K, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.27 | 48.53 | 48.53 | 48.44 | 48.30 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.50 [-1.00,-0.01] | -0.13 [-0.69,+0.33] | +0.07 [-0.42,+0.59] | -0.10 [-0.44,+0.24] | -0.28 [-0.60,+0.05] | -0.19 ± 0.21 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.191 | 2.203 | 2.203 | 2.199 | 2.192 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.023 [-0.045,-0.001] | -0.006 [-0.031,+0.015] | +0.003 [-0.019,+0.027] | -0.005 [-0.020,+0.011] | -0.013 [-0.027,+0.002] | -0.009 ± 0.010 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.74 | 129.11 | 129.92 | 130.96 | 131.03 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -3.75 [-5.86,-1.76] | -1.94 [-3.80,-0.25] | -1.45 [-3.86,+0.83] | -0.77 [-2.46,+1.04] | -0.19 [-2.01,+1.73] | -1.62 ± 1.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.10 | 86.95 | 87.01 | 86.96 | 87.09 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.10 [-0.17,+0.36] | -0.04 [-0.34,+0.28] | -0.11 [-0.42,+0.16] | -0.04 [-0.26,+0.17] | +0.09 [-0.10,+0.29] | -0.00 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.70 | 161.40 | 160.73 | 161.72 | 164.10 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.49 [-9.02,-0.43] | -1.96 [-4.68,+0.59] | -1.82 [-6.12,+2.26] | -1.33 [-4.21,+1.76] | +0.39 [-2.73,+3.48] | -1.84 ± 1.75 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.64 | 70.83 | 70.85 | 70.96 | 70.73 | 71.39 | 71.29 | 71.02 | 71.05 | 71.03 | -0.75 [-1.33,-0.20] | -0.45 [-1.15,+0.14] | -0.18 [-0.74,+0.48] | -0.09 [-0.57,+0.39] | -0.30 [-0.78,+0.17] | -0.35 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.58 | 25.80 | 25.58 | 25.75 | 25.76 | 25.64 | 25.86 | 25.57 | 25.62 | 25.75 | -0.07 [-0.60,+0.46] | -0.06 [-0.60,+0.47] | +0.01 [-0.55,+0.59] | +0.14 [-0.28,+0.58] | +0.01 [-0.37,+0.39] | +0.01 ± 0.08 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All lhand | 64.79 | 65.01 | 65.17 | 64.71 | 64.37 | 65.67 | 65.11 | 65.03 | 65.05 | 65.30 | -0.89 [-2.10,+0.31] | -0.10 [-1.17,+0.93] | +0.14 [-0.88,+1.21] | -0.34 [-1.20,+0.51] | -0.93 [-1.84,-0.06] | -0.42 ± 0.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.51 | 78.01 | 78.57 | 77.77 | 77.40 | 78.72 | 78.03 | 78.09 | 78.41 | 77.94 | -1.22 [-2.47,+0.02] | -0.02 [-1.20,+1.11] | +0.48 [-0.86,+1.86] | -0.65 [-1.58,+0.31] | -0.54 [-1.30,+0.23] | -0.39 ± 0.65 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.88 | 34.80 | 34.89 | 34.86 | 34.77 | 35.08 | 35.03 | 35.07 | 35.00 | 35.14 | -0.20 [-0.82,+0.48] | -0.24 [-0.81,+0.21] | -0.18 [-0.57,+0.20] | -0.15 [-0.54,+0.27] | -0.37 [-0.88,+0.04] | -0.23 ± 0.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.18 | 44.31 | 44.52 | 44.47 | 44.25 | 44.84 | 44.66 | 44.50 | 44.55 | 44.60 | -0.66 [-1.44,+0.01] | -0.35 [-0.97,+0.16] | +0.02 [-0.48,+0.53] | -0.09 [-0.52,+0.34] | -0.36 [-0.71,-0.00] | -0.29 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.58 | 51.88 | 51.93 | 51.77 | 51.55 | 52.24 | 52.04 | 51.87 | 51.93 | 51.85 | -0.66 [-1.39,+0.01] | -0.16 [-0.81,+0.44] | +0.06 [-0.62,+0.79] | -0.16 [-0.65,+0.32] | -0.30 [-0.76,+0.17] | -0.24 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.26 | 53.69 | 53.54 | 53.55 | 53.40 | 53.91 | 53.76 | 53.50 | 53.68 | 53.60 | -0.65 [-1.36,+0.02] | -0.07 [-0.73,+0.55] | +0.04 [-0.70,+0.83] | -0.13 [-0.64,+0.39] | -0.20 [-0.65,+0.26] | -0.20 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.43 | 57.96 | 57.79 | 57.58 | 57.50 | 57.77 | 57.81 | 57.38 | 57.55 | 57.67 | -0.34 [-1.05,+0.33] | +0.15 [-0.46,+0.75] | +0.41 [-0.37,+1.28] | +0.02 [-0.51,+0.52] | -0.17 [-0.62,+0.29] | +0.02 ± 0.29 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − K+pre, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 47.95 | 48.04 | 47.81 | 48.10 | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | +0.00 [-0.37,+0.36] | -0.09 [-0.47,+0.27] | +0.03 [-0.40,+0.45] | -0.31 [-0.72,+0.07] | -0.02 [-0.37,+0.32] | -0.08 ± 0.14 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.177 | 2.181 | 2.170 | 2.183 | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | +0.000 [-0.017,+0.016] | -0.004 [-0.022,+0.012] | +0.001 [-0.018,+0.020] | -0.014 [-0.033,+0.003] | -0.001 [-0.017,+0.015] | -0.003 ± 0.006 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.58 | 129.25 | 128.45 | 128.48 | 129.87 | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | +0.15 [-2.22,+2.25] | +0.12 [-1.63,+1.72] | -0.06 [-2.48,+1.92] | -0.84 [-2.64,+0.85] | +1.14 [-0.67,+2.94] | +0.10 ± 0.71 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.20 | 87.29 | 87.09 | 87.25 | 87.28 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | -0.00 [-0.21,+0.22] | +0.08 [-0.10,+0.28] | -0.07 [-0.34,+0.23] | +0.19 [-0.06,+0.46] | +0.24 [+0.02,+0.50] | +0.09 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.20 | 160.85 | 159.24 | 159.53 | 161.58 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | -0.15 [-4.17,+3.78] | +0.74 [-2.12,+3.40] | +0.22 [-4.10,+4.02] | -1.86 [-5.12,+1.28] | +1.86 [-2.13,+5.96] | +0.16 ± 1.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.48 | 70.17 | 70.36 | 70.27 | 70.26 | 70.64 | 70.68 | 70.78 | 70.48 | 70.37 | -0.16 [-0.58,+0.27] | -0.50 [-1.04,-0.02] | -0.41 [-0.89,+0.05] | -0.21 [-0.68,+0.24] | -0.11 [-0.49,+0.28] | -0.28 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.45 | 25.64 | 25.52 | 25.28 | 25.66 | 25.35 | 25.40 | 25.28 | 25.47 | 25.37 | +0.09 [-0.33,+0.49] | +0.24 [-0.13,+0.60] | +0.24 [-0.29,+0.76] | -0.19 [-0.67,+0.23] | +0.28 [-0.11,+0.65] | +0.13 ± 0.20 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 63.92 | 63.86 | 63.41 | 63.85 | 63.42 | 64.02 | 63.91 | 64.19 | 64.16 | 64.39 | -0.10 [-1.13,+0.95] | -0.04 [-1.02,+0.97] | -0.78 [-1.81,+0.23] | -0.30 [-1.39,+0.77] | -0.98 [-2.02,+0.04] | -0.44 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.14 | 76.77 | 77.93 | 76.92 | 78.00 | 77.14 | 77.47 | 77.21 | 77.73 | 77.91 | +0.00 [-0.98,+0.98] | -0.70 [-1.73,+0.30] | +0.72 [-0.29,+1.74] | -0.81 [-1.85,+0.20] | +0.09 [-0.96,+1.14] | -0.14 ± 0.63 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.69 | 34.59 | 34.78 | 34.56 | 34.79 | 34.53 | 34.34 | 34.69 | 34.56 | 34.62 | +0.15 [-0.23,+0.53] | +0.25 [-0.14,+0.66] | +0.10 [-0.31,+0.48] | +0.00 [-0.36,+0.34] | +0.17 [-0.18,+0.52] | +0.13 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 43.96 | 44.01 | 44.06 | 43.76 | 44.04 | 44.11 | 44.08 | 44.13 | 44.10 | 44.20 | -0.15 [-0.62,+0.33] | -0.07 [-0.58,+0.40] | -0.06 [-0.59,+0.44] | -0.35 [-0.79,+0.09] | -0.15 [-0.60,+0.28] | -0.16 ± 0.12 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.22 | 51.14 | 51.28 | 51.05 | 51.43 | 51.31 | 51.50 | 51.36 | 51.42 | 51.54 | -0.09 [-0.55,+0.37] | -0.36 [-0.88,+0.11] | -0.08 [-0.64,+0.46] | -0.36 [-0.87,+0.12] | -0.10 [-0.59,+0.37] | -0.20 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.06 | 52.95 | 53.05 | 52.88 | 53.12 | 53.02 | 53.19 | 53.05 | 53.22 | 53.22 | +0.03 [-0.50,+0.56] | -0.24 [-0.81,+0.28] | -0.01 [-0.62,+0.60] | -0.34 [-0.94,+0.23] | -0.09 [-0.66,+0.47] | -0.13 ± 0.16 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 56.97 | 57.07 | 57.01 | 56.79 | 57.09 | 56.92 | 57.10 | 56.81 | 57.28 | 56.99 | +0.05 [-0.51,+0.62] | -0.03 [-0.60,+0.50] | +0.20 [-0.44,+0.83] | -0.49 [-1.15,+0.12] | +0.10 [-0.50,+0.70] | -0.04 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.27 | 48.53 | 48.53 | 48.44 | 48.30 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | -0.12 [-0.75,+0.49] | +0.12 [-0.31,+0.54] | +0.32 [-0.26,+0.92] | +0.07 [-0.43,+0.59] | -0.62 [-1.24,-0.03] | -0.05 ± 0.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.191 | 2.203 | 2.203 | 2.199 | 2.192 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | -0.006 [-0.034,+0.022] | +0.005 [-0.014,+0.025] | +0.015 [-0.012,+0.042] | +0.003 [-0.020,+0.027] | -0.028 [-0.056,-0.001] | -0.002 ± 0.016 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.74 | 129.11 | 129.92 | 130.96 | 131.03 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | -1.74 [-3.99,+0.38] | -0.40 [-2.37,+1.65] | +0.93 [-1.89,+3.74] | +0.18 [-2.95,+3.59] | +0.43 [-2.06,+2.97] | -0.12 ± 1.02 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.10 | 86.95 | 87.01 | 86.96 | 87.09 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | -0.16 [-0.51,+0.16] | -0.16 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.28 [-0.62,+0.04] | -0.24 [-0.56,+0.06] | +0.20 [-0.08,+0.48] | -0.13 ± 0.19 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.70 | 161.40 | 160.73 | 161.72 | 164.10 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | -4.08 [-8.62,+0.25] | -1.34 [-5.07,+2.43] | -1.51 [-6.34,+3.12] | -2.62 [-7.44,+2.14] | +0.44 [-4.18,+4.84] | -1.82 ± 1.67 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.64 | 70.83 | 70.85 | 70.96 | 70.73 | 70.88 | 70.94 | 70.85 | 70.68 | 71.10 | -0.23 [-0.86,+0.38] | -0.10 [-0.79,+0.53] | +0.00 [-0.73,+0.75] | +0.28 [-0.33,+0.89] | -0.37 [-1.03,+0.28] | -0.09 ± 0.25 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.58 | 25.80 | 25.58 | 25.75 | 25.76 | 25.39 | 25.70 | 25.53 | 25.45 | 25.92 | +0.19 [-0.43,+0.87] | +0.10 [-0.33,+0.57] | +0.06 [-0.50,+0.66] | +0.31 [-0.32,+1.00] | -0.16 [-0.77,+0.47] | +0.10 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 64.79 | 65.01 | 65.17 | 64.71 | 64.37 | 65.53 | 65.27 | 65.04 | 65.36 | 66.48 | -0.74 [-2.22,+0.64] | -0.26 [-1.39,+0.82] | +0.13 [-1.25,+1.42] | -0.65 [-2.00,+0.58] | -2.11 [-4.05,-0.42] | -0.73 ± 0.85 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.51 | 78.01 | 78.57 | 77.77 | 77.40 | 77.89 | 77.19 | 76.79 | 77.97 | 78.36 | -0.38 [-1.90,+1.02] | +0.81 [-0.36,+1.98] | +1.78 [+0.27,+3.40] | -0.20 [-1.44,+1.03] | -0.96 [-2.40,+0.47] | +0.21 ± 1.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.88 | 34.80 | 34.89 | 34.86 | 34.77 | 34.97 | 34.99 | 34.94 | 35.20 | 35.23 | -0.09 [-0.55,+0.36] | -0.19 [-0.63,+0.19] | -0.05 [-0.55,+0.42] | -0.35 [-0.89,+0.19] | -0.45 [-1.04,+0.10] | -0.23 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.18 | 44.31 | 44.52 | 44.47 | 44.25 | 44.28 | 44.37 | 44.14 | 44.29 | 44.95 | -0.10 [-0.77,+0.56] | -0.07 [-0.57,+0.42] | +0.38 [-0.18,+0.94] | +0.17 [-0.41,+0.80] | -0.71 [-1.40,-0.04] | -0.06 ± 0.41 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.58 | 51.88 | 51.93 | 51.77 | 51.55 | 51.69 | 51.85 | 51.49 | 51.80 | 52.39 | -0.11 [-0.89,+0.66] | +0.03 [-0.59,+0.64] | +0.43 [-0.33,+1.23] | -0.03 [-0.74,+0.70] | -0.84 [-1.65,-0.03] | -0.10 ± 0.46 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.26 | 53.69 | 53.54 | 53.55 | 53.40 | 53.38 | 53.41 | 53.00 | 53.10 | 53.86 | -0.12 [-0.98,+0.70] | +0.28 [-0.34,+0.90] | +0.54 [-0.36,+1.46] | +0.44 [-0.31,+1.22] | -0.46 [-1.26,+0.32] | +0.14 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.43 | 57.96 | 57.79 | 57.58 | 57.50 | 57.63 | 57.43 | 57.46 | 57.45 | 58.16 | -0.19 [-1.05,+0.65] | +0.53 [-0.09,+1.15] | +0.32 [-0.55,+1.27] | +0.12 [-0.60,+0.84] | -0.66 [-1.50,+0.16] | +0.03 ± 0.46 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 47.95 | 48.04 | 47.81 | 48.10 | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | +0.20 [-0.34,+0.72] | +0.51 [-0.00,+1.05] | +0.30 [-0.21,+0.82] | +0.07 [-0.42,+0.55] | +0.33 [-0.24,+0.90] | +0.28 ± 0.16 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.177 | 2.181 | 2.170 | 2.183 | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | +0.009 [-0.015,+0.033] | +0.023 [-0.000,+0.048] | +0.014 [-0.010,+0.037] | +0.003 [-0.019,+0.025] | +0.015 [-0.011,+0.041] | +0.013 ± 0.007 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.58 | 129.25 | 128.45 | 128.48 | 129.87 | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | +0.42 [-1.80,+2.63] | +2.18 [-0.47,+5.11] | +0.70 [-1.92,+3.42] | +0.60 [-1.34,+2.58] | +1.39 [-1.55,+4.38] | +1.06 ± 0.73 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.20 | 87.29 | 87.09 | 87.25 | 87.28 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | -0.24 [-0.54,+0.05] | -0.17 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.29 [-0.61,+0.02] | -0.11 [-0.37,+0.17] | -0.13 [-0.45,+0.17] | -0.19 ± 0.08 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.20 | 160.85 | 159.24 | 159.53 | 161.58 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | -0.05 [-3.75,+3.54] | +3.76 [-0.73,+8.20] | +0.48 [-3.58,+4.53] | +0.60 [-3.47,+4.54] | +1.75 [-3.19,+6.91] | +1.31 ± 1.52 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.48 | 70.17 | 70.36 | 70.27 | 70.26 | 70.16 | 69.94 | 70.19 | 70.01 | 69.98 | +0.32 [-0.28,+0.94] | +0.24 [-0.39,+0.85] | +0.18 [-0.47,+0.83] | +0.26 [-0.36,+0.85] | +0.28 [-0.39,+0.95] | +0.25 ± 0.05 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.45 | 25.64 | 25.52 | 25.28 | 25.66 | 25.44 | 25.26 | 25.40 | 25.38 | 25.28 | +0.01 [-0.48,+0.47] | +0.37 [-0.16,+0.94] | +0.12 [-0.46,+0.73] | -0.11 [-0.52,+0.29] | +0.37 [-0.22,+0.99] | +0.15 ± 0.22 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 63.92 | 63.86 | 63.41 | 63.85 | 63.42 | 63.71 | 62.90 | 63.24 | 63.58 | 63.62 | +0.21 [-1.11,+1.52] | +0.96 [-0.26,+2.19] | +0.17 [-1.19,+1.52] | +0.27 [-0.97,+1.56] | -0.20 [-1.61,+1.14] | +0.28 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.14 | 76.77 | 77.93 | 76.92 | 78.00 | 76.50 | 75.91 | 76.78 | 76.69 | 77.22 | +0.64 [-0.96,+2.24] | +0.86 [-0.68,+2.38] | +1.15 [-0.24,+2.51] | +0.23 [-1.31,+1.71] | +0.78 [-1.02,+2.52] | +0.73 ± 0.34 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.69 | 34.59 | 34.78 | 34.56 | 34.79 | 34.53 | 34.00 | 34.63 | 34.52 | 34.48 | +0.16 [-0.41,+0.69] | +0.59 [+0.07,+1.10] | +0.16 [-0.34,+0.63] | +0.04 [-0.47,+0.51] | +0.32 [-0.27,+0.87] | +0.25 ± 0.21 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 43.96 | 44.01 | 44.06 | 43.76 | 44.04 | 43.93 | 43.58 | 43.88 | 43.96 | 43.95 | +0.04 [-0.58,+0.67] | +0.43 [-0.15,+1.02] | +0.19 [-0.45,+0.83] | -0.21 [-0.82,+0.38] | +0.09 [-0.61,+0.79] | +0.11 ± 0.23 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.22 | 51.14 | 51.28 | 51.05 | 51.43 | 51.06 | 51.02 | 51.34 | 51.20 | 51.42 | +0.16 [-0.45,+0.79] | +0.12 [-0.59,+0.85] | -0.06 [-0.76,+0.67] | -0.15 [-0.83,+0.53] | +0.02 [-0.77,+0.80] | +0.02 ± 0.13 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.06 | 52.95 | 53.05 | 52.88 | 53.12 | 52.52 | 52.25 | 52.24 | 52.36 | 52.38 | +0.53 [-0.16,+1.23] | +0.70 [+0.02,+1.38] | +0.81 [+0.10,+1.53] | +0.52 [-0.11,+1.15] | +0.74 [-0.02,+1.54] | +0.66 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 56.97 | 57.07 | 57.01 | 56.79 | 57.09 | 56.88 | 56.33 | 56.61 | 56.62 | 56.61 | +0.10 [-0.67,+0.84] | +0.74 [-0.04,+1.52] | +0.40 [-0.30,+1.11] | +0.17 [-0.52,+0.84] | +0.48 [-0.29,+1.26] | +0.38 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Secondary: AUC of the hazard probability haz_P (max / mean over parts × horizons) for HM membership (descriptive) | |
| | seed | split | AUC(max haz_P) | AUC(mean haz_P) | | |
| |---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | val | 0.812 | 0.832 | | |
| | 42 | test | 0.831 | 0.845 | | |
| | 123 | val | 0.793 | 0.796 | | |
| | 123 | test | 0.827 | 0.835 | | |
| | 456 | val | 0.779 | 0.785 | | |
| | 456 | test | 0.830 | 0.845 | | |
| | 789 | val | 0.796 | 0.801 | | |
| | 789 | test | 0.827 | 0.837 | | |
| | 1011 | val | 0.797 | 0.801 | | |
| | 1011 | test | 0.812 | 0.829 | | |
| ### 2.2 `lam03` (--haz-weight 0.3) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.51 | 55.019 | 48.51 [44.76, 52.63] | 2.202 [2.032, 2.389] | 130.39 [108.20, 158.69] | 87.00 [85.84, 88.14] | 161.80 [118.48, 220.73] | | |
| | 42 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.47 | 55.297 | 48.53 [44.78, 52.64] | 2.203 [2.033, 2.389] | 130.48 [108.05, 158.75] | 87.07 [85.94, 88.19] | 162.10 [118.09, 221.88] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − K, per seed (n = 2 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 2) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | B s42 | B s123 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.51 | 48.53 | 48.77 | 48.66 | -0.26 [-0.72,+0.19] | -0.13 [-0.71,+0.35] | -0.19 ± 0.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.202 | 2.203 | 2.214 | 2.209 | -0.012 [-0.032,+0.009] | -0.006 [-0.032,+0.016] | -0.009 ± 0.004 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 130.39 | 130.48 | 132.49 | 131.05 | -2.10 [-4.70,+0.41] | -0.57 [-2.38,+1.33] | -1.34 ± 1.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 87.07 | 87.00 | 86.99 | +0.00 [-0.20,+0.20] | +0.08 [-0.18,+0.42] | +0.04 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 161.80 | 162.10 | 164.19 | 163.36 | -2.39 [-6.42,+1.45] | -1.26 [-4.39,+1.79] | -1.83 ± 0.80 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.83 | 70.75 | 71.39 | 71.29 | -0.56 [-1.16,+0.03] | -0.54 [-1.23,+0.03] | -0.55 ± 0.02 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.54 | 25.61 | 25.64 | 25.86 | -0.10 [-0.58,+0.34] | -0.25 [-0.78,+0.20] | -0.18 ± 0.10 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 65.34 | 65.44 | 65.67 | 65.11 | -0.33 [-1.62,+0.91] | +0.34 [-0.79,+1.52] | +0.00 ± 0.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 78.43 | 78.34 | 78.72 | 78.03 | -0.29 [-1.47,+0.96] | +0.31 [-0.83,+1.43] | +0.01 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.87 | 35.11 | 35.08 | 35.03 | -0.21 [-0.79,+0.37] | +0.08 [-0.54,+0.59] | -0.06 ± 0.20 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.63 | 44.53 | 44.84 | 44.66 | -0.21 [-0.91,+0.42] | -0.12 [-0.82,+0.46] | -0.17 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.92 | 51.97 | 52.24 | 52.04 | -0.32 [-1.02,+0.33] | -0.06 [-0.77,+0.56] | -0.19 ± 0.18 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.62 | 53.56 | 53.91 | 53.76 | -0.29 [-0.90,+0.31] | -0.20 [-0.90,+0.44] | -0.24 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.52 | 57.48 | 57.77 | 57.81 | -0.25 [-0.86,+0.33] | -0.33 [-0.98,+0.26] | -0.29 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − K+pre, per seed (n = 0 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = —) | |
| _(pending — no finished seed pair)_ | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (n = 2 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 2) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | B s42 | B s123 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.51 | 48.53 | 48.39 | 48.41 | +0.12 [-0.47,+0.68] | +0.12 [-0.25,+0.48] | +0.12 ± 0.00 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | d-n | 2.202 | 2.203 | 2.197 | 2.197 | +0.006 [-0.022,+0.031] | +0.006 [-0.011,+0.022] | +0.006 ± 0.000 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 130.39 | 130.48 | 130.48 | 129.51 | -0.09 [-2.76,+2.71] | +0.98 [-0.50,+2.61] | +0.44 ± 0.76 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 87.07 | 87.26 | 87.11 | -0.25 [-0.55,+0.02] | -0.04 [-0.27,+0.21] | -0.15 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 161.80 | 162.10 | 163.78 | 162.75 | -1.98 [-7.13,+3.15] | -0.65 [-3.66,+2.07] | -1.31 ± 0.94 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.83 | 70.75 | 70.88 | 70.94 | -0.04 [-0.60,+0.49] | -0.19 [-0.80,+0.35] | -0.12 ± 0.10 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All face | 25.54 | 25.61 | 25.39 | 25.70 | +0.15 [-0.52,+0.86] | -0.09 [-0.52,+0.35] | +0.03 ± 0.17 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All lhand | 65.34 | 65.44 | 65.53 | 65.27 | -0.19 [-1.37,+0.87] | +0.17 [-0.70,+1.05] | -0.01 ± 0.26 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All rhand | 78.43 | 78.34 | 77.89 | 77.19 | +0.54 [-0.66,+1.70] | +1.15 [+0.10,+2.24] | +0.85 ± 0.43 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.87 | 35.11 | 34.97 | 34.99 | -0.10 [-0.61,+0.38] | +0.13 [-0.34,+0.51] | +0.02 ± 0.16 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.63 | 44.53 | 44.28 | 44.37 | +0.35 [-0.32,+0.97] | +0.16 [-0.34,+0.64] | +0.25 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.92 | 51.97 | 51.69 | 51.85 | +0.23 [-0.55,+0.97] | +0.13 [-0.40,+0.65] | +0.18 ± 0.07 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.62 | 53.56 | 53.38 | 53.41 | +0.24 [-0.61,+1.05] | +0.16 [-0.33,+0.65] | +0.20 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.52 | 57.48 | 57.63 | 57.43 | -0.11 [-0.96,+0.70] | +0.04 [-0.41,+0.50] | -0.03 ± 0.11 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (n = 0 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = —) | |
| _(pending — no finished seed pair)_ | |
| #### Secondary: AUC of the hazard probability haz_P (max / mean over parts × horizons) for HM membership (descriptive) | |
| | seed | split | AUC(max haz_P) | AUC(mean haz_P) | | |
| |---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | val | 0.800 | 0.798 | | |
| | 42 | test | 0.831 | 0.835 | | |
| | 123 | val | 0.792 | 0.800 | | |
| | 123 | test | 0.824 | 0.823 | | |
| ## 3. S3 — MotionBERT-kp fairness arm (same val budget: 9 new grid points + existing default = 10; MB-best = argmin val All, ties 0.10 → fewer params) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s3_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:49:07Z (complete = True). Rule: MB-best = argmin val All over the 10 grid points (9 new + existing default); ties within 0.1 px -> fewer parameters. | |
| | cfg | run | model | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All vs default [CI] | test All (recorded, not used) | S3 | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | (default) | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.6 | 55.550 | +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] | 48.279 | | | |
| | d192 | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192 | (default) | 1809440 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 6.14 | 55.559 | +0.009 [-0.573,+0.575] | 48.595 | | | |
| | L4 | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_L4 | (default) | 1077664 | 82 / 123 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.71 | 55.433 | -0.117 [-0.572,+0.313] | 48.488 | | | |
| | lr1e-4 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-4 | 813088 | 79 / 120 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.18 | 55.310 | -0.240 [-0.773,+0.247] | 48.493 | | | |
| | lr1e-3 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-3 | 813088 | 60 / 101 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.75 | 55.281 | -0.269 [-0.732,+0.131] | 48.394 | | | |
| | wd0.01 | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.01 | 813088 | 73 / 114 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.15 | 55.366 | -0.184 [-0.659,+0.199] | 48.342 | | | |
| | wd0.1 | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.1 | 813088 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.83 | 55.603 | +0.053 [-0.324,+0.440] | 48.424 | | | |
| | do0.1 | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --dropout 0.1 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.89 | 55.215 | -0.335 [-0.888,+0.129] | 48.389 | **MB-best** | | |
| | d192_L4 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | (default) | 2402912 | 67 / 108 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.18 | 55.399 | -0.151 [-0.632,+0.325] | 48.418 | | | |
| | d192_L4_do0.1 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | --dropout 0.1 | 2402912 | 55 / 96 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.82 | 55.425 | -0.125 [-0.587,+0.327] | 48.477 | | | |
| **MB-best = do0.1** (final; model motionbert_kp, flags ['--dropout', '0.1']; changes d/L: False → existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint reused). | |
| ### 3.1 MB-best and MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds; K + pre completion (test levels) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.6 | 55.550 | 48.28 [44.53, 52.37] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.377] | 130.34 [108.20, 158.53] | 87.17 [86.04, 88.28] | 163.95 [119.85, 223.86] | | |
| | 42 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.94 | 54.528 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 128.03 [105.81, 156.47] | 87.46 [86.37, 88.54] | 159.20 [115.09, 219.85] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.89 | 55.215 | 48.39 [44.59, 52.49] | 2.197 [2.024, 2.383] | 130.48 [107.84, 158.95] | 87.26 [86.15, 88.36] | 163.78 [118.78, 224.72] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 41 / 82 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.59 | 54.575 | 47.78 [44.10, 51.83] | 2.169 [2.002, 2.353] | 128.16 [105.87, 156.59] | 87.45 [86.35, 88.53] | 159.24 [114.93, 219.57] | | |
| | 42 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 5771449 | 31 / 72 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.48 | 55.003 | 47.98 [44.28, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.010, 2.363] | 128.43 [106.25, 157.11] | 87.21 [86.10, 88.30] | 159.35 [115.56, 219.46] | | |
| | 123 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s123_v2 | 813088 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.36 | 55.627 | 48.38 [44.65, 52.46] | 2.196 [2.027, 2.381] | 129.16 [106.70, 157.58] | 87.14 [86.02, 88.27] | 162.59 [118.87, 222.08] | | |
| | 123 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 38 / 79 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.16 | 54.720 | 47.53 [43.87, 51.55] | 2.158 [1.992, 2.340] | 126.11 [103.96, 154.69] | 87.40 [86.32, 88.46] | 156.47 [113.00, 215.99] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2 | 813088 | 54 / 95 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.1 | 55.656 | 48.41 [44.69, 52.49] | 2.197 [2.029, 2.383] | 129.51 [107.22, 158.01] | 87.11 [85.97, 88.23] | 162.75 [118.82, 222.30] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 42 / 83 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.68 | 54.666 | 47.44 [43.78, 51.45] | 2.153 [1.987, 2.336] | 127.07 [105.00, 155.58] | 87.45 [86.36, 88.52] | 157.09 [113.60, 216.60] | | |
| | 123 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 5771449 | 33 / 74 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.88 | 54.828 | 48.04 [44.33, 52.11] | 2.181 [2.012, 2.365] | 129.13 [106.80, 157.67] | 87.20 [86.07, 88.32] | 160.11 [116.11, 220.04] | | |
| | 456 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s456_v2 | 813088 | 90 / 131 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.17 | 55.166 | 48.48 [44.74, 52.58] | 2.201 [2.031, 2.387] | 130.23 [107.78, 158.89] | 87.14 [86.00, 88.25] | 162.24 [116.93, 223.50] | | |
| | 456 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.68 | 54.797 | 47.91 [44.22, 51.93] | 2.175 [2.008, 2.357] | 127.59 [105.28, 156.14] | 87.39 [86.28, 88.47] | 158.92 [114.76, 219.74] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2 | 813088 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.5 | 55.356 | 48.21 [44.50, 52.28] | 2.188 [2.020, 2.373] | 128.99 [106.63, 157.76] | 87.30 [86.18, 88.39] | 162.24 [117.69, 222.93] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 43 / 84 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.74 | 54.828 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.79] | 2.167 [2.001, 2.351] | 127.75 [105.54, 156.19] | 87.38 [86.27, 88.46] | 158.75 [114.66, 219.20] | | |
| | 456 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 5771449 | 36 / 77 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.91 | 54.670 | 48.01 [44.31, 52.12] | 2.179 [2.011, 2.366] | 128.51 [106.16, 157.20] | 87.16 [86.02, 88.27] | 159.02 [115.09, 219.40] | | |
| | 789 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s789_v2 | 813088 | 77 / 118 / early_stop(patience=40) | 6.14 | 55.134 | 48.46 [44.71, 52.57] | 2.200 [2.030, 2.386] | 130.66 [108.19, 159.30] | 87.27 [86.16, 88.36] | 163.04 [118.30, 223.77] | | |
| | 789 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.45 | 54.882 | 47.55 [43.88, 51.56] | 2.159 [1.992, 2.341] | 127.71 [105.39, 156.61] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.48] | 159.11 [114.88, 219.30] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2 | 813088 | 89 / 130 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.43 | 55.295 | 48.37 [44.60, 52.47] | 2.196 [2.025, 2.382] | 130.78 [108.51, 159.34] | 87.20 [86.08, 88.30] | 164.33 [119.77, 224.96] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 40 / 81 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.5 | 54.786 | 47.74 [44.06, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 127.88 [105.66, 156.44] | 87.36 [86.25, 88.45] | 158.93 [114.68, 219.29] | | |
| | 789 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 5771449 | 35 / 76 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.22 | 54.590 | 48.12 [44.44, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.017, 2.370] | 129.32 [107.17, 157.78] | 87.06 [85.94, 88.18] | 161.39 [117.32, 221.77] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.69 | 55.506 | 48.68 [44.92, 52.82] | 2.210 [2.039, 2.398] | 131.49 [108.92, 160.13] | 86.97 [85.81, 88.12] | 166.22 [121.36, 227.01] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 47 / 88 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.98 | 54.868 | 47.85 [44.16, 51.87] | 2.172 [2.005, 2.355] | 129.47 [107.17, 157.92] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.49] | 160.75 [116.16, 221.59] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 138 / 179 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.66 | 55.253 | 48.92 [45.11, 53.00] | 2.221 [2.048, 2.406] | 130.61 [108.46, 158.67] | 86.90 [85.74, 88.04] | 163.65 [119.68, 223.28] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 59 / 100 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.71 | 54.566 | 47.77 [44.07, 51.75] | 2.168 [2.001, 2.349] | 128.48 [106.50, 156.68] | 87.41 [86.31, 88.48] | 159.83 [115.53, 220.28] | | |
| | 1011 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 5771449 | 34 / 75 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.14 | 54.609 | 48.11 [44.40, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.016, 2.370] | 128.73 [106.48, 157.39] | 87.03 [85.91, 88.16] | 159.72 [115.63, 220.35] | | |
| #### Δ = MB-best[do0.1]+pre − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | -0.61 [-1.17,-0.07] | -0.97 [-1.50,-0.46] | -0.47 [-0.96,+0.03] | -0.63 [-1.10,-0.16] | -1.15 [-1.82,-0.53] | -0.77 ± 0.28 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.003] | -0.044 [-0.068,-0.021] | -0.021 [-0.044,+0.001] | -0.029 [-0.050,-0.007] | -0.052 [-0.082,-0.024] | -0.035 ± 0.013 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | -2.32 [-4.83,-0.06] | -2.44 [-4.62,-0.37] | -1.25 [-3.56,+0.87] | -2.90 [-5.13,-0.88] | -2.13 [-4.94,+0.62] | -2.21 ± 0.61 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | +0.19 [-0.09,+0.46] | +0.35 [+0.08,+0.63] | +0.08 [-0.16,+0.33] | +0.15 [-0.06,+0.36] | +0.51 [+0.19,+0.87] | +0.26 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | -4.54 [-8.85,-0.30] | -5.66 [-10.34,-1.22] | -3.49 [-8.12,+0.52] | -5.41 [-9.75,-1.54] | -3.82 [-8.18,+0.25] | -4.58 ± 0.95 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − K, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.79 [-1.29,-0.30] | -0.62 [-1.17,-0.11] | -0.45 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.43 [-0.88,+0.03] | -0.46 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.55 ± 0.15 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.036 [-0.059,-0.014] | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.005] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.019 [-0.040,+0.001] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.025 ± 0.007 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -4.06 [-6.57,-1.74] | -1.92 [-4.14,+0.22] | -2.86 [-5.09,-0.73] | -2.41 [-4.43,-0.48] | -2.49 [-4.79,-0.27] | -2.75 ± 0.81 | BEATS | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.20 [-0.05,+0.45] | +0.22 [-0.07,+0.52] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.06 [-0.16,+0.28] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.11 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.85 [-8.95,-1.00] | -3.25 [-6.97,+0.55] | -3.53 [-7.22,+0.08] | -1.65 [-5.11,+1.98] | -3.98 [-8.22,+0.07] | -3.45 ± 1.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | +0.38 [-0.21,+0.96] | +0.25 [-0.15,+0.69] | +0.25 [-0.19,+0.69] | +0.17 [-0.29,+0.64] | -0.34 [-0.98,+0.25] | +0.14 ± 0.28 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | +0.017 [-0.010,+0.044] | +0.011 [-0.007,+0.031] | +0.012 [-0.009,+0.032] | +0.008 [-0.013,+0.029] | -0.016 [-0.045,+0.011] | +0.006 ± 0.013 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | +2.01 [-0.71,+4.80] | +1.54 [-0.56,+3.72] | +2.38 [+0.08,+4.80] | +0.95 [-1.79,+3.81] | +0.62 [-1.60,+2.73] | +1.50 ± 0.73 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | -0.25 [-0.54,+0.01] | -0.12 [-0.41,+0.14] | -0.17 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.20 [-0.48,+0.06] | +0.11 [-0.19,+0.41] | -0.13 ± 0.14 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | +0.41 [-4.94,+5.58] | +0.61 [-3.26,+4.35] | +0.30 [-3.97,+4.60] | -1.29 [-6.68,+3.41] | +0.05 [-4.50,+4.01] | +0.02 ± 0.76 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | +0.20 [-0.29,+0.70] | +0.60 [+0.11,+1.12] | +0.27 [-0.24,+0.79] | +0.38 [-0.12,+0.90] | +0.35 [-0.24,+0.97] | +0.36 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | +0.009 [-0.013,+0.032] | +0.027 [+0.005,+0.051] | +0.012 [-0.011,+0.036] | +0.017 [-0.005,+0.041] | +0.016 [-0.011,+0.044] | +0.016 ± 0.007 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | +0.27 [-2.42,+3.03] | +2.06 [-0.67,+4.96] | +0.76 [-1.81,+3.62] | +1.44 [-0.64,+3.70] | +0.25 [-3.14,+3.84] | +0.96 ± 0.78 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | -0.24 [-0.50,+0.02] | -0.25 [-0.53,+0.01] | -0.22 [-0.54,+0.07] | -0.29 [-0.58,-0.02] | -0.38 [-0.71,-0.07] | -0.28 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | +0.10 [-4.83,+4.85] | +3.02 [-2.27,+8.37] | +0.26 [-4.85,+5.29] | +2.46 [-1.86,+6.95] | -0.11 [-5.85,+5.56] | +1.15 ± 1.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| ## 4. Primary endpoints and adoption (test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state; BEATS rule, 4/5) | |
| - K-v2(best) = **nospatial** (lowest mean VAL All over finished seeds among S1b-continued survivors; ties 0.10 → fewer components): nospatial val All 54.906 over 5 seeds, 4 components. | |
| | endpoint | n seeds | Δ All per seed [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | secondary (HM / PCK@0.05 / HM h=5 / d-n verdicts) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | P1 = K-v2(nospatial) − MB-best[do0.1] | 5 | s42 -0.12 [-0.75,+0.49]; s123 +0.12 [-0.31,+0.54]; s456 +0.32 [-0.26,+0.92]; s789 +0.07 [-0.43,+0.59]; s1011 -0.62 [-1.24,-0.03] | -0.05 ± 0.36 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n INCONCLUSIVE (-0.00); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (-0.12); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (-0.13); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (-1.82) | | |
| | P2 = K-v2(nospatial)+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre | 5 | s42 +0.20 [-0.34,+0.72]; s123 +0.51 [-0.00,+1.05]; s456 +0.30 [-0.21,+0.82]; s789 +0.07 [-0.42,+0.55]; s1011 +0.33 [-0.24,+0.90] | +0.28 ± 0.16 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n NOT_WORSE (+0.01); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (+1.06); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (-0.19); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (+1.31) | | |
| | A1 = K-v2(nospatial) − K | 5 | s42 -0.50 [-1.00,-0.01]; s123 -0.13 [-0.69,+0.33]; s456 +0.07 [-0.42,+0.59]; s789 -0.10 [-0.44,+0.24]; s1011 -0.28 [-0.60,+0.05] | -0.19 ± 0.21 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n INCONCLUSIVE (-0.01); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (-1.62); PCK@0.05 NOT_WORSE (-0.00); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (-1.84) | | |
| | A2 = K-v2(nospatial)+pre − K+pre | 5 | s42 +0.00 [-0.37,+0.36]; s123 -0.09 [-0.47,+0.27]; s456 +0.03 [-0.40,+0.45]; s789 -0.31 [-0.72,+0.07]; s1011 -0.02 [-0.37,+0.32] | -0.08 ± 0.14 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n NOT_WORSE (-0.00); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (+0.10); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (+0.09); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (+0.16) | | |
| ### 4.1 Paper-wording consequence table (pre-registered; the realised row is marked) | |
| | case | wording consequence | realised | | |
| |---|---|---| | |
| | P1 ∧ P2 | an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged) | | | |
| | P1 ∧ ¬P2 | "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises"; attribution sentence kept | | | |
| | ¬P1 ∧ P2 | "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk"; attribution sentence kept | | | |
| | neither | wording unchanged verbatim; K-v2 = ablation family + gen_tables.py NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE reported as is | **← REALISED** | | |
| **ADOPTION A1: NOT ADOPTED** | |
| **ADOPTION A2: NOT ADOPTED** | |
| - Consequence-table row: **neither**. Any WORSE verdict above is reported as is. | |
| ## 5. GPU minutes of the programme's new runs (from run json; the GPU was shared with a DMS feature-extraction job and other lanes, so minutes are wall-clock upper bounds) | |
| | run | GPU min | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.14 | | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.22 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | 4.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | 4.75 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 4.47 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 5.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | 5.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123 | 10.72 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.12 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 1.09 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 1.21 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 1.12 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.08 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2 | 1.58 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 3.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 1.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2 | 3.67 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2 | 1.65 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | 3.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | 4.32 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | 4.19 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | 2.25 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | 4.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 3.98 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 3.45 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.82 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | 5.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | 6.14 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 2.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 2.68 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 2.59 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 2.74 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 2.50 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2 | 4.66 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2 | 2.10 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.89 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2 | 2.50 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2 | 3.43 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | 2.75 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | 3.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | 3.15 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | 2.83 | | |
| | **total (42 runs)** | **139.4** | | |
| ## 6. Provenance | |
| - Inputs: `pred_val.npz` / `pred_test.npz` / `metrics_val.json` / `metrics_test.json` / `run_<name>_<utc>.json` under `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/runs`; gate decisions `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/kv2`: pretrain_check_nospatial.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_20260915T000040Z.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_own.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_own_20260915T001217Z.json, s1_decision.json, s1_decision_20260914T234548Z.json, s1b_lam03_decision.json, s1b_lam03_decision_20260915T000039Z.json, s1b_nospatial_decision.json, s1b_nospatial_decision_20260915T000038Z.json, s3_decision.json, s3_decision_20260914T230840Z.json, s3_decision_20260914T234907Z.json; pre-registration row from `/home/USER/cwm3/docs/decisions.md` (S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z). | |
| - Comparison runs `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2`, `motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2`, `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2` are the EXISTING runs (never retrained); every programme run is a new run dir. | |
| - Selection: val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights inside the trainer; S1 / S1b / S3 decisions from pred_val.npz only (`aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`); one test evaluation per run by the harness; no test number was used for any decision. | |
| - Launcher `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` (gate: free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, < 4 trainers, OMP/MKL 4; finished runs skipped); pids `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`. | |
| - Pending runs referenced above: 0. This block is append-only; earlier blocks are never edited. | |
| - Trainer code hashes (`code_sha256` of each finished programme run's run json; distinct values = code changed between launches, e.g. the train_kp.py:630 guard fix of 2026-09-14T23:11:53Z, behaviour-neutral for dict-output models — see `aide/results/kv2/NOTES.md`): `e313c0ff89746293` (20 runs: motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2); `8caba4a8efccd311` (18 runs: cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2, cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2); `22306515fd4a42a0` (2 runs: cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2); `652c4ba49ba937f2` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_s42_v2); `d44d169e8c2a9bcb` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123). | |
| --- | |
| <!-- appended regeneration 20260915T013147Z --> | |
| # K-v2 programme — CockpitWM-K improvement, pre-registered 2026-09-14 (protocol C23) — val n = 405 (selection), test n = 609 (one evaluation per run), paired per-clip bootstrap (10000) | |
| Generated 20260915T013147Z by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` from pred_{val,test}.npz / metrics_{val,test}.json / run json / `aide/results/kv2/*.json` only (locked protocol: driver `first`, grid `floor`, val HM top 40 (threshold 83.33 px, NEVER a ranking statistic), test HM top 60 (threshold 72.05 px), PCK @ 96 px; every run selected on val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights only, test evaluated once by the harness). Δ = paired per-clip difference (negative = better for errors, positive = better for PCK), CI = clip-bootstrap percentile interval. **Verdict rule (as `arch_attribution.md`): BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and |Δ| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE.** Confirmatory cells need all 5 seeds; otherwise "pending". | |
| ## 0. Pre-registration (verbatim decisions row) and timestamp check | |
| - S0 UTC: **2026-09-14T22:51:07Z**; earliest programme run `t_start_utc`: **2026-09-14T23:08:22Z** (42 programme runs finished of 189 possible names); runs started at or before S0: none. | |
| > | 2026-09-14 | **K-v2 programme — S0 pre-registration (CockpitWM-K improvement; new model file `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py`, `--model cwm3d_v2`; approved plan `<local-notes>/plans/elegant-dazzling-stallman.md` Part A; row written at S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z BEFORE any K-v2 / MB-grid run; the same UTC is in `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt` and protocol C23).** **Honesty clause**: the K-v2 design (hierarchical part trunk kept; joint tokens + 2 spatial blocks + attention pooling; lean shared read-out; onset-hazard head gating the anchor mixture) was motivated by the TEST diagnostics of `arch_attribution.md` §3.2 (K vs MotionBERT-kp: right hand +0.71, body +0.28, h=2–4 +0.2–0.3, HM h=3/4 +2.4/+2.0) → therefore ALL K-v2 configuration choices are fixed on VAL only, and MotionBERT-kp (MB) receives the same val selection budget (S3, 10 val points each). **Locked protocol unchanged**: val-only selection on All-MPJPE of the EMA weights; the official test split is evaluated exactly once per run by the existing harness (append-only `results.csv`); no flip TTA; ensembles only as separately labelled rows; Stage-A recipe verbatim (`--lr 3e-4 --wd 0.05 --warmup 10 --epochs 200 --bs 32 --ema 0.999 --clip 1.0 --patience 40 --aug-window 1 --noise-px 2.0 --joint-drop 0.1 --translate 20 --scale 0.05 --flip-p 0`; K loss defaults euc + 0.1 NLL + 0.05 bone + 0.01 jerk; tensor-output models add `--loss euc`); paired per-clip clip-bootstrap 10,000 resamples seed 0 (`aide/eval/metrics.paired_diff`); verdict rule of `arch_attribution.md`: BEATS / WORSE = Δ CI excl. 0 on ≥ ceil(2n/3) seeds (5 seeds: 4/5) with the same sign on every seed; NOT_WORSE = all CIs cover 0 and \|Δ\| < 0.25; else INCONCLUSIVE. Every decision below is computed mechanically by `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py` from `pred_val.npz` + `harness.load_split("val")` (+ `metrics.hm_mask` on val) and written as UTC-stamped json in `aide/results/kv2/` (`s1_decision.json`, `s1b_<cfg>_decision.json`, `s3_decision.json`, `pretrain_check_<cfg>.json`); downstream runs may start only after the corresponding json exists. **S1 val screen (seed 42, n = 405)**: 9 configs vs the existing `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2` (val All 55.367): `cwm3d_v2_s42_v2` (full), `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2` (`--no-v2-spatial`), `_khead` (`--no-lean-head`, K's per-part read-out), `_nohaz` (`--no-hazard`), `_hazaux` (`--haz-mod 0`: hazard BCE on, gating off), `_plain` (`--no-physics --w-nll 0`), `_q060` / `_q090` (`--haz-quantile 0.60 / 0.90`), `_lam03` (`--haz-weight 0.3`); statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All (config − K); **SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px** (≈ 1.4 val seed-sd); at most 2 survivors (ranked by mean Δ; candidates within 0.10 px of each other are ties → the one with FEWER components wins, components = enabled optional modules of {spatial blocks, lean head, hazard BCE, hazard gating, physics+NLL} — full / q060 / q090 / lam03 = 5, nospatial / khead / hazaux / plain = 4, nohaz = 3; remaining ties by name); **HM guard (never a selection statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 px AND its CI excludes 0**. The 40-clip val HM subset is never used for ranking (level CI width ≈ 37 px vs 8.3 for val All; seed sd 0.93 vs 0.21; val HM threshold 83.3 px ≠ test 72.05 px). Test numbers of S1 runs are produced once by the trainer as usual and are RECORDED, never used for any decision. **S1b**: each survivor at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE to seeds 456 / 789 / 1011 iff Δ val(123) < 0 AND the two-seed mean ≤ −0.25 px; otherwise stop and report "val-killed at seed 123". **S2 (5 seeds 42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), without and with BATON trunk-only init**: K-v2's tokenizer / trunk tensors differ from K's → own pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (`pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --seed 123`: same corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, bs 256, 6 epochs, held-out-route selection, `--zeroshot 0` = no zero-shot test evaluation) UNLESS `kv2_gate.py pretrain-check <cfg>` (dry `train_kp.load_init_ckpt(parts="trunk")` of the survivor model on CPU against `aide/results/runs/cwm3d_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123/ckpt_best.pt`) reports n_skipped_shape = 0 AND zero missing TRUNK_PREFIXES tensors, in which case K's checkpoint is reused; fine-tunes `cwm3d_v2_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2` (`--init-parts trunk`); K's own +pre arm is completed to 5 seeds with `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` (recipe and init of the existing s42/123/456 runs verbatim). **S3 MB fairness arm**: (i) same-budget val grid at seed 42: `motionbert_kp_{d192, L4, lr1e-4, lr1e-3, wd0.01, wd0.1, do0.1, d192_L4, d192_L4_do0.1}_s42_v2` (`--model motionbert_kp[_d192][_L4]` name-encoded width / depth, `--lr`, `--wd`, `--dropout` flags; `--loss euc`) + the existing default `motionbert_kp_s42_v2` = 10 val points = S1's 10; **MB-best = argmin val All** (ties within 0.10 px → fewer parameters); if MB-best ≠ default it is run at the 5 seeds; (ii) MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds: `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2` are run UNCONDITIONALLY (completing the attribution table); if MB-best changes lr / wd / dropout only, the existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint is reused (`motionbert_kp_<cfg>_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`); if MB-best changes d or L, a new pretraining `motionbert_kp_<tag>_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (same corpus / schedule) precedes 5 fine-tunes. **K-v2(best)** = the S2 survivor with the lowest mean VAL All over its finished seeds (ties 0.10 → fewer components); with one survivor it is that one. **PRIMARY (two co-primary endpoints, test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state, beats rule above)**: P1 = K-v2(best) − MB-best (no pretraining); P2 = K-v2(best)+pre − MB-best+pre. **ADOPTION**: A1 = K-v2(best) − `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2` BEATS on All over 5 seeds → K-v2 becomes the main-table CockpitWM-K row (K's row itself unchanged), otherwise K-v2 is an ablation row; A2 = K-v2(best)+pre − K+pre (`cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s<k>_v2`) BEATS → the "+ BATON trunk" row. **SECONDARY (descriptive with CIs, never an adoption basis)**: d-n, HM, PCK@0.05, HM h=5, per-part, per-horizon, AUC of the hazard probability haz_P against HM membership. **Paper-wording consequence table** (mirrors the 2026-09-14 attribution row): P1 ∧ P2 BEATS → an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged); P1 BEATS ∧ ¬P2 → "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises", attribution sentence kept; ¬P1 ∧ P2 → "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk", attribution sentence kept; neither → wording unchanged verbatim, K-v2 = ablation family + `gen_tables.py` NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE is reported as is. **Multiplicity**: ≤ 9 (S1) + 18 (S2) + 2 (K+pre seeds) + 9 (S3 i) + 4 (MB-best seeds) + 7 (S3 ii) ≈ 49 new single test evaluations, each required by the protocol, none used for selection; confirmatory claims are exactly P1, P2, A1, A2. **Already published numbers untouched**; all results only in the new table `aide/results/tables/kv2_program.md` (+ .json) written by `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py` (reads only pred_{val,test}.npz, metrics_{val,test}.json, run json; append-only; machine-readable line `**ADOPTION A1: ADOPTED\|NOT ADOPTED**`). **Execution**: `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` lanes A (S1 → gate s1), B (S3 i → gate s3 → MB-best seeds / +pre), C (`motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{789,1011}_v2`), D (pretrain-check → v2 pretraining if needed → S1b → gate s1b → seeds ± pre); every launch passes the project gate (free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, `pgrep -fc "python.*(train_cwm3\|train_kp\|pretrain)"` < 4, OMP/MKL 4; `setsid nohup bash`; a run whose run json exists is never re-run; pids in `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`); `--no-lock --max-minutes 45`, `--notes "kv2_program;<stage>;cfg=<cfg>"`; `--refs zvshrink=zv_shrink_val,simlpe=simlpe_kp_s<k or 42>_v2,kp=cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2,mb=motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2` (+ `seedinit=<model>_s<k>_v2` for +pre runs; refs are evaluation-only). Lanes A / D start only after `aide/models/cwm3d_v2.py` exists and `pytest -q aide/tests/test_cwm3d_v2.py` passes. Honest expectation (recorded): HM likely improves, All likely still ties MB; every result enters the table regardless. | plan Part A §A.2–A.4; `aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`, `aide/eval/report_kv2_program.py`, `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh`, `aide/tests/test_kv2.py`, `aide/models/motionbert_kp.py::build` (name variants), `aide/docs/protocol.md` C23, `aide/results/kv2/S0_UTC.txt`; motivation `aide/results/tables/arch_attribution.md` §3.2 | Every K-v2 / MB-grid run json must have `t_start_utc` later than 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z (checked by `report_kv2_program.py` §0); gate json must predate the downstream launches; "S1 outcome" and final "K-v2 outcome" rows + C23 outcome follow; paper text changes only after the outcome, per the consequence table | | |
| ## 1. S1 val screen (seed 42; statistic = paired per-clip Δ val All vs `cwm3d_kp_s42_v2`; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ −0.30 px; ≤ 2 survivors, ties 0.10 → fewer components; HM guard KILL iff Δ val HM > +3.0 with CI excl. 0 — the val HM column is SECONDARY) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s1_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:45:48Z (complete = True). Rule: paired per-clip Δ val All (config − cwm3d_kp_s42_v2), n = 405, 10000 clip-bootstrap seed 0; SURVIVE iff mean Δ ≤ -0.3 px; ≤ 2 survivors ranked by mean Δ, ties within 0.1 px -> fewer components (full/q060/q090/lam03 = 5, nospatial/khead/hazaux/plain = 4, nohaz = 3); HM guard (never a ranking statistic): KILL iff Δ val HM (40 clips) mean > +3.0 AND CI excl. 0. | |
| | cfg | run | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All [CI] | Δ val HM [CI] (secondary) | guard | S1 status | test All (recorded, not used) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | K (baseline) | cwm3d_kp_s42_v2 | — | 5771449 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) / 0.6 | 55.367 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 48.767 | | |
| | full | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | (full) | 2736282 | 75 / 116 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.25 | 55.170 | -0.197 [-0.798,+0.387] | +0.60 [-2.54,+3.45] | ok | KILL | 48.696 | | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | --no-v2-spatial | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 1.69 | 54.788 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.64 [-4.19,+1.99] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.267 | | |
| | khead | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | --no-lean-head | 5091964 | 52 / 93 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.75 | 55.482 | +0.115 [-0.442,+0.662] | +1.06 [-1.16,+3.09] | ok | KILL | 48.642 | | |
| | nohaz | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | --no-hazard | 2702199 | 106 / 147 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.71 | 55.325 | -0.042 [-0.873,+0.723] | +2.94 [-0.38,+6.86] | ok | KILL | 48.648 | | |
| | hazaux | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | --haz-mod 0 | 2736267 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.51 | 55.140 | -0.227 [-0.888,+0.393] | +2.41 [+0.04,+4.95] | ok | KILL | 48.592 | | |
| | plain | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | --no-physics --w-nll 0 | 2736282 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.69 | 55.218 | -0.149 [-0.722,+0.397] | +1.73 [-0.72,+4.18] | ok | KILL | 48.728 | | |
| | q060 | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.60 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.32 | 55.320 | -0.047 [-0.674,+0.606] | +3.26 [+0.21,+7.50] | KILL | KILL | 48.704 | | |
| | q090 | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | --haz-quantile 0.90 | 2736282 | 71 / 112 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.19 | 55.128 | -0.239 [-0.774,+0.291] | +1.33 [-1.27,+4.02] | ok | KILL | 48.380 | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | --haz-weight 0.3 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.51 | 55.019 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | +1.92 [-0.73,+5.20] | ok | SURVIVE | 48.512 | | |
| **S1 survivors (decision): nospatial, lam03.** | |
| ### 1.1 S1b (survivors at seed 123 vs `cwm3d_kp_s123_v2`; CONTINUE iff Δ val(123) < 0 and 2-seed mean ≤ −0.25) | |
| | cfg | seed-123 run | val All | Δ val All s42 [CI] | Δ val All s123 [CI] | 2-seed mean | decision | source | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | nospatial | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 54.801 | -0.579 [-1.275,+0.058] | -0.566 [-1.121,-0.038] | -0.573 | CONTINUE | decision json 2026-09-15T00:00:38Z | | |
| | lam03 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 55.297 | -0.348 [-1.018,+0.310] | -0.070 [-0.678,+0.534] | -0.209 | KILLED | decision json 2026-09-15T00:00:39Z | | |
| **S1b: continuing to 5 seeds: nospatial.** | |
| ## 2. S2 — 5 seeds (42 / 123 / 456 / 789 / 1011), TEST (one evaluation per run), K-v2 survivors without / with BATON trunk-only init | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (architecture-matched trunk for lam03): not run / not finished. | |
| - Pretraining `cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123` (architecture-matched trunk for nospatial): finished (6 epochs, best epoch 5, held-out All 27.18, 10.72 GPU-min, corpus sha256 465dac1cf0a8265a, command `aide/train/pretrain_cwm3d_baton.py --model cwm3d_v2 --no-v2-spatial --seed 123 --name cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123 --zeroshot 0`). | |
| - pretrain-check `nospatial`: vs K checkpoint → NEED_V2_PRETRAIN (loaded 47 / 54 trunk tensors, shape-skipped 0, missing 7); vs own pretraining → trunk_complete = True (loaded 54 / 54, shape-skipped 0, missing 0). | |
| - pretrain-check `lam03`: vs K checkpoint → no json (loaded — / — trunk tensors, shape-skipped —, missing —); vs own pretraining → no json. | |
| ### 2.1 `nospatial` (--no-v2-spatial) — S1b: **CONTINUE** | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 2666906 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.69 | 54.788 | 48.27 [44.54, 52.40] | 2.191 [2.022, 2.379] | 128.74 [106.37, 157.12] | 87.10 [85.94, 88.24] | 159.70 [116.06, 218.87] | | |
| | 42 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.21 | 54.689 | 47.98 [44.26, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.009, 2.363] | 128.58 [106.36, 156.90] | 87.20 [86.08, 88.32] | 159.20 [115.08, 219.21] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 2666906 | 84 / 125 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.71 | 54.801 | 48.53 [44.75, 52.63] | 2.203 [2.031, 2.389] | 129.11 [106.68, 157.62] | 86.95 [85.78, 88.12] | 161.40 [117.80, 220.27] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 2666906 | 42 / 83 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.09 | 54.321 | 47.95 [44.22, 52.05] | 2.177 [2.007, 2.363] | 129.25 [106.85, 157.68] | 87.29 [86.15, 88.40] | 160.85 [116.52, 221.12] | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2 | 2666906 | 91 / 132 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.67 | 55.150 | 48.53 [44.76, 52.59] | 2.203 [2.032, 2.388] | 129.92 [107.92, 158.13] | 87.01 [85.86, 88.16] | 160.73 [117.34, 219.34] | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.12 | 54.352 | 48.04 [44.34, 52.10] | 2.181 [2.013, 2.365] | 128.45 [106.26, 156.89] | 87.09 [85.95, 88.21] | 159.24 [115.23, 219.46] | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2 | 2666906 | 80 / 121 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.65 | 55.048 | 48.44 [44.65, 52.56] | 2.199 [2.027, 2.386] | 130.96 [108.49, 159.39] | 86.96 [85.82, 88.10] | 161.72 [117.96, 220.66] | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 2666906 | 40 / 81 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.08 | 54.710 | 47.81 [44.12, 51.85] | 2.170 [2.003, 2.354] | 128.48 [106.16, 157.11] | 87.25 [86.14, 88.36] | 159.53 [115.32, 219.61] | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2 | 2666906 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.58 | 54.744 | 48.30 [44.53, 52.43] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.380] | 131.03 [108.45, 159.36] | 87.09 [85.94, 88.23] | 164.10 [120.54, 222.22] | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 2666906 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.12 | 54.559 | 48.10 [44.37, 52.18] | 2.183 [2.014, 2.369] | 129.87 [107.84, 158.26] | 87.28 [86.16, 88.39] | 161.58 [118.12, 220.56] | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − K, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.27 | 48.53 | 48.53 | 48.44 | 48.30 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.50 [-1.00,-0.01] | -0.13 [-0.69,+0.33] | +0.07 [-0.42,+0.59] | -0.10 [-0.44,+0.24] | -0.28 [-0.60,+0.05] | -0.19 ± 0.21 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.191 | 2.203 | 2.203 | 2.199 | 2.192 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.023 [-0.045,-0.001] | -0.006 [-0.031,+0.015] | +0.003 [-0.019,+0.027] | -0.005 [-0.020,+0.011] | -0.013 [-0.027,+0.002] | -0.009 ± 0.010 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.74 | 129.11 | 129.92 | 130.96 | 131.03 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -3.75 [-5.86,-1.76] | -1.94 [-3.80,-0.25] | -1.45 [-3.86,+0.83] | -0.77 [-2.46,+1.04] | -0.19 [-2.01,+1.73] | -1.62 ± 1.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.10 | 86.95 | 87.01 | 86.96 | 87.09 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.10 [-0.17,+0.36] | -0.04 [-0.34,+0.28] | -0.11 [-0.42,+0.16] | -0.04 [-0.26,+0.17] | +0.09 [-0.10,+0.29] | -0.00 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.70 | 161.40 | 160.73 | 161.72 | 164.10 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.49 [-9.02,-0.43] | -1.96 [-4.68,+0.59] | -1.82 [-6.12,+2.26] | -1.33 [-4.21,+1.76] | +0.39 [-2.73,+3.48] | -1.84 ± 1.75 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.64 | 70.83 | 70.85 | 70.96 | 70.73 | 71.39 | 71.29 | 71.02 | 71.05 | 71.03 | -0.75 [-1.33,-0.20] | -0.45 [-1.15,+0.14] | -0.18 [-0.74,+0.48] | -0.09 [-0.57,+0.39] | -0.30 [-0.78,+0.17] | -0.35 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.58 | 25.80 | 25.58 | 25.75 | 25.76 | 25.64 | 25.86 | 25.57 | 25.62 | 25.75 | -0.07 [-0.60,+0.46] | -0.06 [-0.60,+0.47] | +0.01 [-0.55,+0.59] | +0.14 [-0.28,+0.58] | +0.01 [-0.37,+0.39] | +0.01 ± 0.08 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All lhand | 64.79 | 65.01 | 65.17 | 64.71 | 64.37 | 65.67 | 65.11 | 65.03 | 65.05 | 65.30 | -0.89 [-2.10,+0.31] | -0.10 [-1.17,+0.93] | +0.14 [-0.88,+1.21] | -0.34 [-1.20,+0.51] | -0.93 [-1.84,-0.06] | -0.42 ± 0.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.51 | 78.01 | 78.57 | 77.77 | 77.40 | 78.72 | 78.03 | 78.09 | 78.41 | 77.94 | -1.22 [-2.47,+0.02] | -0.02 [-1.20,+1.11] | +0.48 [-0.86,+1.86] | -0.65 [-1.58,+0.31] | -0.54 [-1.30,+0.23] | -0.39 ± 0.65 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.88 | 34.80 | 34.89 | 34.86 | 34.77 | 35.08 | 35.03 | 35.07 | 35.00 | 35.14 | -0.20 [-0.82,+0.48] | -0.24 [-0.81,+0.21] | -0.18 [-0.57,+0.20] | -0.15 [-0.54,+0.27] | -0.37 [-0.88,+0.04] | -0.23 ± 0.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.18 | 44.31 | 44.52 | 44.47 | 44.25 | 44.84 | 44.66 | 44.50 | 44.55 | 44.60 | -0.66 [-1.44,+0.01] | -0.35 [-0.97,+0.16] | +0.02 [-0.48,+0.53] | -0.09 [-0.52,+0.34] | -0.36 [-0.71,-0.00] | -0.29 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.58 | 51.88 | 51.93 | 51.77 | 51.55 | 52.24 | 52.04 | 51.87 | 51.93 | 51.85 | -0.66 [-1.39,+0.01] | -0.16 [-0.81,+0.44] | +0.06 [-0.62,+0.79] | -0.16 [-0.65,+0.32] | -0.30 [-0.76,+0.17] | -0.24 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.26 | 53.69 | 53.54 | 53.55 | 53.40 | 53.91 | 53.76 | 53.50 | 53.68 | 53.60 | -0.65 [-1.36,+0.02] | -0.07 [-0.73,+0.55] | +0.04 [-0.70,+0.83] | -0.13 [-0.64,+0.39] | -0.20 [-0.65,+0.26] | -0.20 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.43 | 57.96 | 57.79 | 57.58 | 57.50 | 57.77 | 57.81 | 57.38 | 57.55 | 57.67 | -0.34 [-1.05,+0.33] | +0.15 [-0.46,+0.75] | +0.41 [-0.37,+1.28] | +0.02 [-0.51,+0.52] | -0.17 [-0.62,+0.29] | +0.02 ± 0.29 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − K+pre, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 47.95 | 48.04 | 47.81 | 48.10 | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | +0.00 [-0.37,+0.36] | -0.09 [-0.47,+0.27] | +0.03 [-0.40,+0.45] | -0.31 [-0.72,+0.07] | -0.02 [-0.37,+0.32] | -0.08 ± 0.14 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.177 | 2.181 | 2.170 | 2.183 | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | +0.000 [-0.017,+0.016] | -0.004 [-0.022,+0.012] | +0.001 [-0.018,+0.020] | -0.014 [-0.033,+0.003] | -0.001 [-0.017,+0.015] | -0.003 ± 0.006 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.58 | 129.25 | 128.45 | 128.48 | 129.87 | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | +0.15 [-2.22,+2.25] | +0.12 [-1.63,+1.72] | -0.06 [-2.48,+1.92] | -0.84 [-2.64,+0.85] | +1.14 [-0.67,+2.94] | +0.10 ± 0.71 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.20 | 87.29 | 87.09 | 87.25 | 87.28 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | -0.00 [-0.21,+0.22] | +0.08 [-0.10,+0.28] | -0.07 [-0.34,+0.23] | +0.19 [-0.06,+0.46] | +0.24 [+0.02,+0.50] | +0.09 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.20 | 160.85 | 159.24 | 159.53 | 161.58 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | -0.15 [-4.17,+3.78] | +0.74 [-2.12,+3.40] | +0.22 [-4.10,+4.02] | -1.86 [-5.12,+1.28] | +1.86 [-2.13,+5.96] | +0.16 ± 1.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.48 | 70.17 | 70.36 | 70.27 | 70.26 | 70.64 | 70.68 | 70.78 | 70.48 | 70.37 | -0.16 [-0.58,+0.27] | -0.50 [-1.04,-0.02] | -0.41 [-0.89,+0.05] | -0.21 [-0.68,+0.24] | -0.11 [-0.49,+0.28] | -0.28 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.45 | 25.64 | 25.52 | 25.28 | 25.66 | 25.35 | 25.40 | 25.28 | 25.47 | 25.37 | +0.09 [-0.33,+0.49] | +0.24 [-0.13,+0.60] | +0.24 [-0.29,+0.76] | -0.19 [-0.67,+0.23] | +0.28 [-0.11,+0.65] | +0.13 ± 0.20 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 63.92 | 63.86 | 63.41 | 63.85 | 63.42 | 64.02 | 63.91 | 64.19 | 64.16 | 64.39 | -0.10 [-1.13,+0.95] | -0.04 [-1.02,+0.97] | -0.78 [-1.81,+0.23] | -0.30 [-1.39,+0.77] | -0.98 [-2.02,+0.04] | -0.44 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.14 | 76.77 | 77.93 | 76.92 | 78.00 | 77.14 | 77.47 | 77.21 | 77.73 | 77.91 | +0.00 [-0.98,+0.98] | -0.70 [-1.73,+0.30] | +0.72 [-0.29,+1.74] | -0.81 [-1.85,+0.20] | +0.09 [-0.96,+1.14] | -0.14 ± 0.63 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.69 | 34.59 | 34.78 | 34.56 | 34.79 | 34.53 | 34.34 | 34.69 | 34.56 | 34.62 | +0.15 [-0.23,+0.53] | +0.25 [-0.14,+0.66] | +0.10 [-0.31,+0.48] | +0.00 [-0.36,+0.34] | +0.17 [-0.18,+0.52] | +0.13 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 43.96 | 44.01 | 44.06 | 43.76 | 44.04 | 44.11 | 44.08 | 44.13 | 44.10 | 44.20 | -0.15 [-0.62,+0.33] | -0.07 [-0.58,+0.40] | -0.06 [-0.59,+0.44] | -0.35 [-0.79,+0.09] | -0.15 [-0.60,+0.28] | -0.16 ± 0.12 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.22 | 51.14 | 51.28 | 51.05 | 51.43 | 51.31 | 51.50 | 51.36 | 51.42 | 51.54 | -0.09 [-0.55,+0.37] | -0.36 [-0.88,+0.11] | -0.08 [-0.64,+0.46] | -0.36 [-0.87,+0.12] | -0.10 [-0.59,+0.37] | -0.20 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.06 | 52.95 | 53.05 | 52.88 | 53.12 | 53.02 | 53.19 | 53.05 | 53.22 | 53.22 | +0.03 [-0.50,+0.56] | -0.24 [-0.81,+0.28] | -0.01 [-0.62,+0.60] | -0.34 [-0.94,+0.23] | -0.09 [-0.66,+0.47] | -0.13 ± 0.16 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 56.97 | 57.07 | 57.01 | 56.79 | 57.09 | 56.92 | 57.10 | 56.81 | 57.28 | 56.99 | +0.05 [-0.51,+0.62] | -0.03 [-0.60,+0.50] | +0.20 [-0.44,+0.83] | -0.49 [-1.15,+0.12] | +0.10 [-0.50,+0.70] | -0.04 ± 0.27 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.27 | 48.53 | 48.53 | 48.44 | 48.30 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | -0.12 [-0.75,+0.49] | +0.12 [-0.31,+0.54] | +0.32 [-0.26,+0.92] | +0.07 [-0.43,+0.59] | -0.62 [-1.24,-0.03] | -0.05 ± 0.36 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.191 | 2.203 | 2.203 | 2.199 | 2.192 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | -0.006 [-0.034,+0.022] | +0.005 [-0.014,+0.025] | +0.015 [-0.012,+0.042] | +0.003 [-0.020,+0.027] | -0.028 [-0.056,-0.001] | -0.002 ± 0.016 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.74 | 129.11 | 129.92 | 130.96 | 131.03 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | -1.74 [-3.99,+0.38] | -0.40 [-2.37,+1.65] | +0.93 [-1.89,+3.74] | +0.18 [-2.95,+3.59] | +0.43 [-2.06,+2.97] | -0.12 ± 1.02 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.10 | 86.95 | 87.01 | 86.96 | 87.09 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | -0.16 [-0.51,+0.16] | -0.16 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.28 [-0.62,+0.04] | -0.24 [-0.56,+0.06] | +0.20 [-0.08,+0.48] | -0.13 ± 0.19 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.70 | 161.40 | 160.73 | 161.72 | 164.10 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | -4.08 [-8.62,+0.25] | -1.34 [-5.07,+2.43] | -1.51 [-6.34,+3.12] | -2.62 [-7.44,+2.14] | +0.44 [-4.18,+4.84] | -1.82 ± 1.67 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.64 | 70.83 | 70.85 | 70.96 | 70.73 | 70.88 | 70.94 | 70.85 | 70.68 | 71.10 | -0.23 [-0.86,+0.38] | -0.10 [-0.79,+0.53] | +0.00 [-0.73,+0.75] | +0.28 [-0.33,+0.89] | -0.37 [-1.03,+0.28] | -0.09 ± 0.25 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.58 | 25.80 | 25.58 | 25.75 | 25.76 | 25.39 | 25.70 | 25.53 | 25.45 | 25.92 | +0.19 [-0.43,+0.87] | +0.10 [-0.33,+0.57] | +0.06 [-0.50,+0.66] | +0.31 [-0.32,+1.00] | -0.16 [-0.77,+0.47] | +0.10 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 64.79 | 65.01 | 65.17 | 64.71 | 64.37 | 65.53 | 65.27 | 65.04 | 65.36 | 66.48 | -0.74 [-2.22,+0.64] | -0.26 [-1.39,+0.82] | +0.13 [-1.25,+1.42] | -0.65 [-2.00,+0.58] | -2.11 [-4.05,-0.42] | -0.73 ± 0.85 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.51 | 78.01 | 78.57 | 77.77 | 77.40 | 77.89 | 77.19 | 76.79 | 77.97 | 78.36 | -0.38 [-1.90,+1.02] | +0.81 [-0.36,+1.98] | +1.78 [+0.27,+3.40] | -0.20 [-1.44,+1.03] | -0.96 [-2.40,+0.47] | +0.21 ± 1.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.88 | 34.80 | 34.89 | 34.86 | 34.77 | 34.97 | 34.99 | 34.94 | 35.20 | 35.23 | -0.09 [-0.55,+0.36] | -0.19 [-0.63,+0.19] | -0.05 [-0.55,+0.42] | -0.35 [-0.89,+0.19] | -0.45 [-1.04,+0.10] | -0.23 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.18 | 44.31 | 44.52 | 44.47 | 44.25 | 44.28 | 44.37 | 44.14 | 44.29 | 44.95 | -0.10 [-0.77,+0.56] | -0.07 [-0.57,+0.42] | +0.38 [-0.18,+0.94] | +0.17 [-0.41,+0.80] | -0.71 [-1.40,-0.04] | -0.06 ± 0.41 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.58 | 51.88 | 51.93 | 51.77 | 51.55 | 51.69 | 51.85 | 51.49 | 51.80 | 52.39 | -0.11 [-0.89,+0.66] | +0.03 [-0.59,+0.64] | +0.43 [-0.33,+1.23] | -0.03 [-0.74,+0.70] | -0.84 [-1.65,-0.03] | -0.10 ± 0.46 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.26 | 53.69 | 53.54 | 53.55 | 53.40 | 53.38 | 53.41 | 53.00 | 53.10 | 53.86 | -0.12 [-0.98,+0.70] | +0.28 [-0.34,+0.90] | +0.54 [-0.36,+1.46] | +0.44 [-0.31,+1.22] | -0.46 [-1.26,+0.32] | +0.14 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.43 | 57.96 | 57.79 | 57.58 | 57.50 | 57.63 | 57.43 | 57.46 | 57.45 | 58.16 | -0.19 [-1.05,+0.65] | +0.53 [-0.09,+1.15] | +0.32 [-0.55,+1.27] | +0.12 [-0.60,+0.84] | -0.66 [-1.50,+0.16] | +0.03 ± 0.46 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (n = 5 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 4) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 47.95 | 48.04 | 47.81 | 48.10 | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | +0.20 [-0.34,+0.72] | +0.51 [-0.00,+1.05] | +0.30 [-0.21,+0.82] | +0.07 [-0.42,+0.55] | +0.33 [-0.24,+0.90] | +0.28 ± 0.16 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.177 | 2.181 | 2.170 | 2.183 | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | +0.009 [-0.015,+0.033] | +0.023 [-0.000,+0.048] | +0.014 [-0.010,+0.037] | +0.003 [-0.019,+0.025] | +0.015 [-0.011,+0.041] | +0.013 ± 0.007 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.58 | 129.25 | 128.45 | 128.48 | 129.87 | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | +0.42 [-1.80,+2.63] | +2.18 [-0.47,+5.11] | +0.70 [-1.92,+3.42] | +0.60 [-1.34,+2.58] | +1.39 [-1.55,+4.38] | +1.06 ± 0.73 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.20 | 87.29 | 87.09 | 87.25 | 87.28 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | -0.24 [-0.54,+0.05] | -0.17 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.29 [-0.61,+0.02] | -0.11 [-0.37,+0.17] | -0.13 [-0.45,+0.17] | -0.19 ± 0.08 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.20 | 160.85 | 159.24 | 159.53 | 161.58 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | -0.05 [-3.75,+3.54] | +3.76 [-0.73,+8.20] | +0.48 [-3.58,+4.53] | +0.60 [-3.47,+4.54] | +1.75 [-3.19,+6.91] | +1.31 ± 1.52 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.48 | 70.17 | 70.36 | 70.27 | 70.26 | 70.16 | 69.94 | 70.19 | 70.01 | 69.98 | +0.32 [-0.28,+0.94] | +0.24 [-0.39,+0.85] | +0.18 [-0.47,+0.83] | +0.26 [-0.36,+0.85] | +0.28 [-0.39,+0.95] | +0.25 ± 0.05 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.45 | 25.64 | 25.52 | 25.28 | 25.66 | 25.44 | 25.26 | 25.40 | 25.38 | 25.28 | +0.01 [-0.48,+0.47] | +0.37 [-0.16,+0.94] | +0.12 [-0.46,+0.73] | -0.11 [-0.52,+0.29] | +0.37 [-0.22,+0.99] | +0.15 ± 0.22 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 63.92 | 63.86 | 63.41 | 63.85 | 63.42 | 63.71 | 62.90 | 63.24 | 63.58 | 63.62 | +0.21 [-1.11,+1.52] | +0.96 [-0.26,+2.19] | +0.17 [-1.19,+1.52] | +0.27 [-0.97,+1.56] | -0.20 [-1.61,+1.14] | +0.28 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 77.14 | 76.77 | 77.93 | 76.92 | 78.00 | 76.50 | 75.91 | 76.78 | 76.69 | 77.22 | +0.64 [-0.96,+2.24] | +0.86 [-0.68,+2.38] | +1.15 [-0.24,+2.51] | +0.23 [-1.31,+1.71] | +0.78 [-1.02,+2.52] | +0.73 ± 0.34 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.69 | 34.59 | 34.78 | 34.56 | 34.79 | 34.53 | 34.00 | 34.63 | 34.52 | 34.48 | +0.16 [-0.41,+0.69] | +0.59 [+0.07,+1.10] | +0.16 [-0.34,+0.63] | +0.04 [-0.47,+0.51] | +0.32 [-0.27,+0.87] | +0.25 ± 0.21 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=2 | 43.96 | 44.01 | 44.06 | 43.76 | 44.04 | 43.93 | 43.58 | 43.88 | 43.96 | 43.95 | +0.04 [-0.58,+0.67] | +0.43 [-0.15,+1.02] | +0.19 [-0.45,+0.83] | -0.21 [-0.82,+0.38] | +0.09 [-0.61,+0.79] | +0.11 ± 0.23 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.22 | 51.14 | 51.28 | 51.05 | 51.43 | 51.06 | 51.02 | 51.34 | 51.20 | 51.42 | +0.16 [-0.45,+0.79] | +0.12 [-0.59,+0.85] | -0.06 [-0.76,+0.67] | -0.15 [-0.83,+0.53] | +0.02 [-0.77,+0.80] | +0.02 ± 0.13 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.06 | 52.95 | 53.05 | 52.88 | 53.12 | 52.52 | 52.25 | 52.24 | 52.36 | 52.38 | +0.53 [-0.16,+1.23] | +0.70 [+0.02,+1.38] | +0.81 [+0.10,+1.53] | +0.52 [-0.11,+1.15] | +0.74 [-0.02,+1.54] | +0.66 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 56.97 | 57.07 | 57.01 | 56.79 | 57.09 | 56.88 | 56.33 | 56.61 | 56.62 | 56.61 | +0.10 [-0.67,+0.84] | +0.74 [-0.04,+1.52] | +0.40 [-0.30,+1.11] | +0.17 [-0.52,+0.84] | +0.48 [-0.29,+1.26] | +0.38 ± 0.26 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Secondary: AUC of the hazard probability haz_P (max / mean over parts × horizons) for HM membership (descriptive) | |
| | seed | split | AUC(max haz_P) | AUC(mean haz_P) | | |
| |---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | val | 0.812 | 0.832 | | |
| | 42 | test | 0.831 | 0.845 | | |
| | 123 | val | 0.793 | 0.796 | | |
| | 123 | test | 0.827 | 0.835 | | |
| | 456 | val | 0.779 | 0.785 | | |
| | 456 | test | 0.830 | 0.845 | | |
| | 789 | val | 0.796 | 0.801 | | |
| | 789 | test | 0.827 | 0.837 | | |
| | 1011 | val | 0.797 | 0.801 | | |
| | 1011 | test | 0.812 | 0.829 | | |
| ### 2.2 `lam03` (--haz-weight 0.3) — S1b: **KILLED** → S2 NOT RUN by rule (rows below marked pending were never launched; the seed-123 run is the S1b run, shown for the record) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 2736282 | 87 / 128 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.51 | 55.019 | 48.51 [44.76, 52.63] | 2.202 [2.032, 2.389] | 130.39 [108.20, 158.69] | 87.00 [85.84, 88.14] | 161.80 [118.48, 220.73] | | |
| | 42 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 2736282 | 76 / 117 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.47 | 55.297 | 48.53 [44.78, 52.64] | 2.203 [2.033, 2.389] | 130.48 [108.05, 158.75] | 87.07 [85.94, 88.19] | 162.10 [118.09, 221.88] | | |
| | 123 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 456 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 789 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| | 1011 | K-v2 + pre | cwm3d_v2_lam03_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | — | pending | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − K, per seed (n = 2 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 2) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | B s42 | B s123 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.51 | 48.53 | 48.77 | 48.66 | -0.26 [-0.72,+0.19] | -0.13 [-0.71,+0.35] | -0.19 ± 0.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.202 | 2.203 | 2.214 | 2.209 | -0.012 [-0.032,+0.009] | -0.006 [-0.032,+0.016] | -0.009 ± 0.004 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 130.39 | 130.48 | 132.49 | 131.05 | -2.10 [-4.70,+0.41] | -0.57 [-2.38,+1.33] | -1.34 ± 1.09 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 87.07 | 87.00 | 86.99 | +0.00 [-0.20,+0.20] | +0.08 [-0.18,+0.42] | +0.04 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 161.80 | 162.10 | 164.19 | 163.36 | -2.39 [-6.42,+1.45] | -1.26 [-4.39,+1.79] | -1.83 ± 0.80 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.83 | 70.75 | 71.39 | 71.29 | -0.56 [-1.16,+0.03] | -0.54 [-1.23,+0.03] | -0.55 ± 0.02 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All face | 25.54 | 25.61 | 25.64 | 25.86 | -0.10 [-0.58,+0.34] | -0.25 [-0.78,+0.20] | -0.18 ± 0.10 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All lhand | 65.34 | 65.44 | 65.67 | 65.11 | -0.33 [-1.62,+0.91] | +0.34 [-0.79,+1.52] | +0.00 ± 0.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All rhand | 78.43 | 78.34 | 78.72 | 78.03 | -0.29 [-1.47,+0.96] | +0.31 [-0.83,+1.43] | +0.01 ± 0.42 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.87 | 35.11 | 35.08 | 35.03 | -0.21 [-0.79,+0.37] | +0.08 [-0.54,+0.59] | -0.06 ± 0.20 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.63 | 44.53 | 44.84 | 44.66 | -0.21 [-0.91,+0.42] | -0.12 [-0.82,+0.46] | -0.17 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.92 | 51.97 | 52.24 | 52.04 | -0.32 [-1.02,+0.33] | -0.06 [-0.77,+0.56] | -0.19 ± 0.18 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.62 | 53.56 | 53.91 | 53.76 | -0.29 [-0.90,+0.31] | -0.20 [-0.90,+0.44] | -0.24 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.52 | 57.48 | 57.77 | 57.81 | -0.25 [-0.86,+0.33] | -0.33 [-0.98,+0.26] | -0.29 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − K+pre, per seed (n = 0 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = —) | |
| _(pending — no finished seed pair)_ | |
| #### Δ = K-v2 − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (n = 2 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = 2) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | B s42 | B s123 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.51 | 48.53 | 48.39 | 48.41 | +0.12 [-0.47,+0.68] | +0.12 [-0.25,+0.48] | +0.12 ± 0.00 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | d-n | 2.202 | 2.203 | 2.197 | 2.197 | +0.006 [-0.022,+0.031] | +0.006 [-0.011,+0.022] | +0.006 ± 0.000 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 130.39 | 130.48 | 130.48 | 129.51 | -0.09 [-2.76,+2.71] | +0.98 [-0.50,+2.61] | +0.44 ± 0.76 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 87.07 | 87.26 | 87.11 | -0.25 [-0.55,+0.02] | -0.04 [-0.27,+0.21] | -0.15 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 161.80 | 162.10 | 163.78 | 162.75 | -1.98 [-7.13,+3.15] | -0.65 [-3.66,+2.07] | -1.31 ± 0.94 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All body | 70.83 | 70.75 | 70.88 | 70.94 | -0.04 [-0.60,+0.49] | -0.19 [-0.80,+0.35] | -0.12 ± 0.10 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All face | 25.54 | 25.61 | 25.39 | 25.70 | +0.15 [-0.52,+0.86] | -0.09 [-0.52,+0.35] | +0.03 ± 0.17 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All lhand | 65.34 | 65.44 | 65.53 | 65.27 | -0.19 [-1.37,+0.87] | +0.17 [-0.70,+1.05] | -0.01 ± 0.26 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All rhand | 78.43 | 78.34 | 77.89 | 77.19 | +0.54 [-0.66,+1.70] | +1.15 [+0.10,+2.24] | +0.85 ± 0.43 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=1 | 34.87 | 35.11 | 34.97 | 34.99 | -0.10 [-0.61,+0.38] | +0.13 [-0.34,+0.51] | +0.02 ± 0.16 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=2 | 44.63 | 44.53 | 44.28 | 44.37 | +0.35 [-0.32,+0.97] | +0.16 [-0.34,+0.64] | +0.25 ± 0.13 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | All h=3 | 51.92 | 51.97 | 51.69 | 51.85 | +0.23 [-0.55,+0.97] | +0.13 [-0.40,+0.65] | +0.18 ± 0.07 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=4 | 53.62 | 53.56 | 53.38 | 53.41 | +0.24 [-0.61,+1.05] | +0.16 [-0.33,+0.65] | +0.20 ± 0.06 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | All h=5 | 57.52 | 57.48 | 57.63 | 57.43 | -0.11 [-0.96,+0.70] | +0.04 [-0.41,+0.50] | -0.03 ± 0.11 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| #### Δ = K-v2+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (n = 0 seed pairs finished; n_req = ceil(2n/3) = —) | |
| _(pending — no finished seed pair)_ | |
| #### Secondary: AUC of the hazard probability haz_P (max / mean over parts × horizons) for HM membership (descriptive) | |
| | seed | split | AUC(max haz_P) | AUC(mean haz_P) | | |
| |---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | val | 0.800 | 0.798 | | |
| | 42 | test | 0.831 | 0.835 | | |
| | 123 | val | 0.792 | 0.800 | | |
| | 123 | test | 0.824 | 0.823 | | |
| ## 3. S3 — MotionBERT-kp fairness arm (same val budget: 9 new grid points + existing default = 10; MB-best = argmin val All, ties 0.10 → fewer params) | |
| - Decision source: `aide/results/kv2/s3_decision.json` written 2026-09-14T23:49:07Z (complete = True). Rule: MB-best = argmin val All over the 10 grid points (9 new + existing default); ties within 0.1 px -> fewer parameters. | |
| | cfg | run | model | flags | params | best ep / epochs / stop / GPU min | val All | Δ val All vs default [CI] | test All (recorded, not used) | S3 | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | (default) | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.6 | 55.550 | +0.000 [+0.000,+0.000] | 48.279 | | | |
| | d192 | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192 | (default) | 1809440 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 6.14 | 55.559 | +0.009 [-0.573,+0.575] | 48.595 | | | |
| | L4 | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_L4 | (default) | 1077664 | 82 / 123 / early_stop(patience=40) / 4.71 | 55.433 | -0.117 [-0.572,+0.313] | 48.488 | | | |
| | lr1e-4 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-4 | 813088 | 79 / 120 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.18 | 55.310 | -0.240 [-0.773,+0.247] | 48.493 | | | |
| | lr1e-3 | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --lr 1e-3 | 813088 | 60 / 101 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.75 | 55.281 | -0.269 [-0.732,+0.131] | 48.394 | | | |
| | wd0.01 | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.01 | 813088 | 73 / 114 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.15 | 55.366 | -0.184 [-0.659,+0.199] | 48.342 | | | |
| | wd0.1 | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --wd 0.1 | 813088 | 64 / 105 / early_stop(patience=40) / 2.83 | 55.603 | +0.053 [-0.324,+0.440] | 48.424 | | | |
| | do0.1 | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp | --dropout 0.1 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.89 | 55.215 | -0.335 [-0.888,+0.129] | 48.389 | **MB-best** | | |
| | d192_L4 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | (default) | 2402912 | 67 / 108 / early_stop(patience=40) / 5.18 | 55.399 | -0.151 [-0.632,+0.325] | 48.418 | | | |
| | d192_L4_do0.1 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | motionbert_kp_d192_L4 | --dropout 0.1 | 2402912 | 55 / 96 / early_stop(patience=40) / 3.82 | 55.425 | -0.125 [-0.587,+0.327] | 48.477 | | | |
| **MB-best = do0.1** (final; model motionbert_kp, flags ['--dropout', '0.1']; changes d/L: False → existing `motionbert_kp_batonpre_pretrain_s123` checkpoint reused). | |
| ### 3.1 MB-best and MB-best + BATON trunk-only init at 5 seeds; K + pre completion (test levels) | |
| | seed | arm | run | params | best ep / epochs / stop | GPU min | val All | All [CI] | d-n [CI] | HM [CI] | PCK@0.05 [CI] | HM h=5 [CI] | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | 42 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s42_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.6 | 55.550 | 48.28 [44.53, 52.37] | 2.192 [2.021, 2.377] | 130.34 [108.20, 158.53] | 87.17 [86.04, 88.28] | 163.95 [119.85, 223.86] | | |
| | 42 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.94 | 54.528 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 128.03 [105.81, 156.47] | 87.46 [86.37, 88.54] | 159.20 [115.09, 219.85] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 813088 | 95 / 136 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.89 | 55.215 | 48.39 [44.59, 52.49] | 2.197 [2.024, 2.383] | 130.48 [107.84, 158.95] | 87.26 [86.15, 88.36] | 163.78 [118.78, 224.72] | | |
| | 42 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 813088 | 41 / 82 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.59 | 54.575 | 47.78 [44.10, 51.83] | 2.169 [2.002, 2.353] | 128.16 [105.87, 156.59] | 87.45 [86.35, 88.53] | 159.24 [114.93, 219.57] | | |
| | 42 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 5771449 | 31 / 72 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.48 | 55.003 | 47.98 [44.28, 52.04] | 2.178 [2.010, 2.363] | 128.43 [106.25, 157.11] | 87.21 [86.10, 88.30] | 159.35 [115.56, 219.46] | | |
| | 123 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s123_v2 | 813088 | 58 / 99 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.36 | 55.627 | 48.38 [44.65, 52.46] | 2.196 [2.027, 2.381] | 129.16 [106.70, 157.58] | 87.14 [86.02, 88.27] | 162.59 [118.87, 222.08] | | |
| | 123 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 38 / 79 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.16 | 54.720 | 47.53 [43.87, 51.55] | 2.158 [1.992, 2.340] | 126.11 [103.96, 154.69] | 87.40 [86.32, 88.46] | 156.47 [113.00, 215.99] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2 | 813088 | 54 / 95 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.1 | 55.656 | 48.41 [44.69, 52.49] | 2.197 [2.029, 2.383] | 129.51 [107.22, 158.01] | 87.11 [85.97, 88.23] | 162.75 [118.82, 222.30] | | |
| | 123 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 813088 | 42 / 83 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.68 | 54.666 | 47.44 [43.78, 51.45] | 2.153 [1.987, 2.336] | 127.07 [105.00, 155.58] | 87.45 [86.36, 88.52] | 157.09 [113.60, 216.60] | | |
| | 123 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 5771449 | 33 / 74 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.88 | 54.828 | 48.04 [44.33, 52.11] | 2.181 [2.012, 2.365] | 129.13 [106.80, 157.67] | 87.20 [86.07, 88.32] | 160.11 [116.11, 220.04] | | |
| | 456 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s456_v2 | 813088 | 90 / 131 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.17 | 55.166 | 48.48 [44.74, 52.58] | 2.201 [2.031, 2.387] | 130.23 [107.78, 158.89] | 87.14 [86.00, 88.25] | 162.24 [116.93, 223.50] | | |
| | 456 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 44 / 85 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.68 | 54.797 | 47.91 [44.22, 51.93] | 2.175 [2.008, 2.357] | 127.59 [105.28, 156.14] | 87.39 [86.28, 88.47] | 158.92 [114.76, 219.74] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2 | 813088 | 65 / 106 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.5 | 55.356 | 48.21 [44.50, 52.28] | 2.188 [2.020, 2.373] | 128.99 [106.63, 157.76] | 87.30 [86.18, 88.39] | 162.24 [117.69, 222.93] | | |
| | 456 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 813088 | 43 / 84 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.74 | 54.828 | 47.74 [44.07, 51.79] | 2.167 [2.001, 2.351] | 127.75 [105.54, 156.19] | 87.38 [86.27, 88.46] | 158.75 [114.66, 219.20] | | |
| | 456 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 5771449 | 36 / 77 / early_stop(patience=40) | 0.91 | 54.670 | 48.01 [44.31, 52.12] | 2.179 [2.011, 2.366] | 128.51 [106.16, 157.20] | 87.16 [86.02, 88.27] | 159.02 [115.09, 219.40] | | |
| | 789 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s789_v2 | 813088 | 77 / 118 / early_stop(patience=40) | 6.14 | 55.134 | 48.46 [44.71, 52.57] | 2.200 [2.030, 2.386] | 130.66 [108.19, 159.30] | 87.27 [86.16, 88.36] | 163.04 [118.30, 223.77] | | |
| | 789 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 37 / 78 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.45 | 54.882 | 47.55 [43.88, 51.56] | 2.159 [1.992, 2.341] | 127.71 [105.39, 156.61] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.48] | 159.11 [114.88, 219.30] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2 | 813088 | 89 / 130 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.43 | 55.295 | 48.37 [44.60, 52.47] | 2.196 [2.025, 2.382] | 130.78 [108.51, 159.34] | 87.20 [86.08, 88.30] | 164.33 [119.77, 224.96] | | |
| | 789 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 813088 | 40 / 81 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.5 | 54.786 | 47.74 [44.06, 51.78] | 2.167 [2.000, 2.350] | 127.88 [105.66, 156.44] | 87.36 [86.25, 88.45] | 158.93 [114.68, 219.29] | | |
| | 789 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 5771449 | 35 / 76 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.22 | 54.590 | 48.12 [44.44, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.017, 2.370] | 129.32 [107.17, 157.78] | 87.06 [85.94, 88.18] | 161.39 [117.32, 221.77] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default | motionbert_kp_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 81 / 122 / early_stop(patience=40) | 5.69 | 55.506 | 48.68 [44.92, 52.82] | 2.210 [2.039, 2.398] | 131.49 [108.92, 160.13] | 86.97 [85.81, 88.12] | 166.22 [121.36, 227.01] | | |
| | 1011 | MB default + pre | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 47 / 88 / early_stop(patience=40) | 3.98 | 54.868 | 47.85 [44.16, 51.87] | 2.172 [2.005, 2.355] | 129.47 [107.17, 157.92] | 87.40 [86.30, 88.49] | 160.75 [116.16, 221.59] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 138 / 179 / early_stop(patience=40) | 4.66 | 55.253 | 48.92 [45.11, 53.00] | 2.221 [2.048, 2.406] | 130.61 [108.46, 158.67] | 86.90 [85.74, 88.04] | 163.65 [119.68, 223.28] | | |
| | 1011 | MB-best + pre | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 813088 | 59 / 100 / early_stop(patience=40) | 2.71 | 54.566 | 47.77 [44.07, 51.75] | 2.168 [2.001, 2.349] | 128.48 [106.50, 156.68] | 87.41 [86.31, 88.48] | 159.83 [115.53, 220.28] | | |
| | 1011 | K + pre | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 5771449 | 34 / 75 / early_stop(patience=40) | 1.14 | 54.609 | 48.11 [44.40, 52.21] | 2.184 [2.016, 2.370] | 128.73 [106.48, 157.39] | 87.03 [85.91, 88.16] | 159.72 [115.63, 220.35] | | |
| #### Δ = MB-best[do0.1]+pre − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | -0.61 [-1.17,-0.07] | -0.97 [-1.50,-0.46] | -0.47 [-0.96,+0.03] | -0.63 [-1.10,-0.16] | -1.15 [-1.82,-0.53] | -0.77 ± 0.28 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.003] | -0.044 [-0.068,-0.021] | -0.021 [-0.044,+0.001] | -0.029 [-0.050,-0.007] | -0.052 [-0.082,-0.024] | -0.035 ± 0.013 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | -2.32 [-4.83,-0.06] | -2.44 [-4.62,-0.37] | -1.25 [-3.56,+0.87] | -2.90 [-5.13,-0.88] | -2.13 [-4.94,+0.62] | -2.21 ± 0.61 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | +0.19 [-0.09,+0.46] | +0.35 [+0.08,+0.63] | +0.08 [-0.16,+0.33] | +0.15 [-0.06,+0.36] | +0.51 [+0.19,+0.87] | +0.26 ± 0.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | -4.54 [-8.85,-0.30] | -5.66 [-10.34,-1.22] | -3.49 [-8.12,+0.52] | -5.41 [-9.75,-1.54] | -3.82 [-8.18,+0.25] | -4.58 ± 0.95 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − K, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | -0.79 [-1.29,-0.30] | -0.62 [-1.17,-0.11] | -0.45 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.43 [-0.88,+0.03] | -0.46 [-0.89,-0.02] | -0.55 ± 0.15 | BEATS | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | -0.036 [-0.059,-0.014] | -0.028 [-0.053,-0.005] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.019 [-0.040,+0.001] | -0.021 [-0.041,-0.001] | -0.025 ± 0.007 | BEATS | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | -4.06 [-6.57,-1.74] | -1.92 [-4.14,+0.22] | -2.86 [-5.09,-0.73] | -2.41 [-4.43,-0.48] | -2.49 [-4.79,-0.27] | -2.75 ± 0.81 | BEATS | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | +0.20 [-0.05,+0.45] | +0.22 [-0.07,+0.52] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.06 [-0.16,+0.28] | +0.03 [-0.20,+0.26] | +0.11 ± 0.09 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | -4.85 [-8.95,-1.00] | -3.25 [-6.97,+0.55] | -3.53 [-7.22,+0.08] | -1.65 [-5.11,+1.98] | -3.98 [-8.22,+0.07] | -3.45 ± 1.17 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K − MB-best[do0.1], per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 48.77 | 48.66 | 48.46 | 48.54 | 48.57 | 48.39 | 48.41 | 48.21 | 48.37 | 48.92 | +0.38 [-0.21,+0.96] | +0.25 [-0.15,+0.69] | +0.25 [-0.19,+0.69] | +0.17 [-0.29,+0.64] | -0.34 [-0.98,+0.25] | +0.14 ± 0.28 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.214 | 2.209 | 2.200 | 2.204 | 2.205 | 2.197 | 2.197 | 2.188 | 2.196 | 2.221 | +0.017 [-0.010,+0.044] | +0.011 [-0.007,+0.031] | +0.012 [-0.009,+0.032] | +0.008 [-0.013,+0.029] | -0.016 [-0.045,+0.011] | +0.006 ± 0.013 | NOT_WORSE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 132.49 | 131.05 | 131.37 | 131.73 | 131.22 | 130.48 | 129.51 | 128.99 | 130.78 | 130.61 | +2.01 [-0.71,+4.80] | +1.54 [-0.56,+3.72] | +2.38 [+0.08,+4.80] | +0.95 [-1.79,+3.81] | +0.62 [-1.60,+2.73] | +1.50 ± 0.73 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.00 | 86.99 | 87.13 | 87.00 | 87.00 | 87.26 | 87.11 | 87.30 | 87.20 | 86.90 | -0.25 [-0.54,+0.01] | -0.12 [-0.41,+0.14] | -0.17 [-0.47,+0.12] | -0.20 [-0.48,+0.06] | +0.11 [-0.19,+0.41] | -0.13 ± 0.14 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 164.19 | 163.36 | 162.55 | 163.04 | 163.70 | 163.78 | 162.75 | 162.24 | 164.33 | 163.65 | +0.41 [-4.94,+5.58] | +0.61 [-3.26,+4.35] | +0.30 [-3.97,+4.60] | -1.29 [-6.68,+3.41] | +0.05 [-4.50,+4.01] | +0.02 ± 0.76 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| #### Δ = K+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre, per seed (descriptive; n = 5) | |
| | cell | A s42 | A s123 | A s456 | A s789 | A s1011 | B s42 | B s123 | B s456 | B s789 | B s1011 | Δ s42 [CI] | Δ s123 [CI] | Δ s456 [CI] | Δ s789 [CI] | Δ s1011 [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | All-MPJPE | 47.98 | 48.04 | 48.01 | 48.12 | 48.11 | 47.78 | 47.44 | 47.74 | 47.74 | 47.77 | +0.20 [-0.29,+0.70] | +0.60 [+0.11,+1.12] | +0.27 [-0.24,+0.79] | +0.38 [-0.12,+0.90] | +0.35 [-0.24,+0.97] | +0.36 ± 0.15 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | d-n | 2.178 | 2.181 | 2.179 | 2.184 | 2.184 | 2.169 | 2.153 | 2.167 | 2.167 | 2.168 | +0.009 [-0.013,+0.032] | +0.027 [+0.005,+0.051] | +0.012 [-0.011,+0.036] | +0.017 [-0.005,+0.041] | +0.016 [-0.011,+0.044] | +0.016 ± 0.007 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM-MPJPE | 128.43 | 129.13 | 128.51 | 129.32 | 128.73 | 128.16 | 127.07 | 127.75 | 127.88 | 128.48 | +0.27 [-2.42,+3.03] | +2.06 [-0.67,+4.96] | +0.76 [-1.81,+3.62] | +1.44 [-0.64,+3.70] | +0.25 [-3.14,+3.84] | +0.96 ± 0.78 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | PCK@0.05 | 87.21 | 87.20 | 87.16 | 87.06 | 87.03 | 87.45 | 87.45 | 87.38 | 87.36 | 87.41 | -0.24 [-0.50,+0.02] | -0.25 [-0.53,+0.01] | -0.22 [-0.54,+0.07] | -0.29 [-0.58,-0.02] | -0.38 [-0.71,-0.07] | -0.28 ± 0.06 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| | HM h=5 | 159.35 | 160.11 | 159.02 | 161.39 | 159.72 | 159.24 | 157.09 | 158.75 | 158.93 | 159.83 | +0.10 [-4.83,+4.85] | +3.02 [-2.27,+8.37] | +0.26 [-4.85,+5.29] | +2.46 [-1.86,+6.95] | -0.11 [-5.85,+5.56] | +1.15 ± 1.47 | INCONCLUSIVE | | |
| ## 4. Primary endpoints and adoption (test All-MPJPE, 5 seeds, both sides in the same pretraining state; BEATS rule, 4/5) | |
| - K-v2(best) = **nospatial** (lowest mean VAL All over finished seeds among S1b-continued survivors; ties 0.10 → fewer components): nospatial val All 54.906 over 5 seeds, 4 components. | |
| | endpoint | n seeds | Δ All per seed [CI] | mean Δ ± sd | verdict | secondary (HM / PCK@0.05 / HM h=5 / d-n verdicts) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | P1 = K-v2(nospatial) − MB-best[do0.1] | 5 | s42 -0.12 [-0.75,+0.49]; s123 +0.12 [-0.31,+0.54]; s456 +0.32 [-0.26,+0.92]; s789 +0.07 [-0.43,+0.59]; s1011 -0.62 [-1.24,-0.03] | -0.05 ± 0.36 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n INCONCLUSIVE (-0.00); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (-0.12); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (-0.13); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (-1.82) | | |
| | P2 = K-v2(nospatial)+pre − MB-best[do0.1]+pre | 5 | s42 +0.20 [-0.34,+0.72]; s123 +0.51 [-0.00,+1.05]; s456 +0.30 [-0.21,+0.82]; s789 +0.07 [-0.42,+0.55]; s1011 +0.33 [-0.24,+0.90] | +0.28 ± 0.16 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n NOT_WORSE (+0.01); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (+1.06); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (-0.19); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (+1.31) | | |
| | A1 = K-v2(nospatial) − K | 5 | s42 -0.50 [-1.00,-0.01]; s123 -0.13 [-0.69,+0.33]; s456 +0.07 [-0.42,+0.59]; s789 -0.10 [-0.44,+0.24]; s1011 -0.28 [-0.60,+0.05] | -0.19 ± 0.21 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n INCONCLUSIVE (-0.01); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (-1.62); PCK@0.05 NOT_WORSE (-0.00); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (-1.84) | | |
| | A2 = K-v2(nospatial)+pre − K+pre | 5 | s42 +0.00 [-0.37,+0.36]; s123 -0.09 [-0.47,+0.27]; s456 +0.03 [-0.40,+0.45]; s789 -0.31 [-0.72,+0.07]; s1011 -0.02 [-0.37,+0.32] | -0.08 ± 0.14 | **INCONCLUSIVE** | d-n NOT_WORSE (-0.00); HM-MPJPE INCONCLUSIVE (+0.10); PCK@0.05 INCONCLUSIVE (+0.09); HM h=5 INCONCLUSIVE (+0.16) | | |
| ### 4.1 Paper-wording consequence table (pre-registered; the realised row is marked) | |
| | case | wording consequence | realised | | |
| |---|---|---| | |
| | P1 ∧ P2 | an architecture advantage under the keypoint formulation may be written FOR K-v2 (K's own attribution sentence unchanged) | | | |
| | P1 ∧ ¬P2 | "advantage without pretraining that the BATON trunk equalises"; attribution sentence kept | | | |
| | ¬P1 ∧ P2 | "advantage conditional on the pretrained trunk"; attribution sentence kept | | | |
| | neither | wording unchanged verbatim; K-v2 = ablation family + gen_tables.py NEGATIVES entry; any WORSE reported as is | **← REALISED** | | |
| **ADOPTION A1: NOT ADOPTED** | |
| **ADOPTION A2: NOT ADOPTED** | |
| - Consequence-table row: **neither**. Any WORSE verdict above is reported as is. | |
| ## 5. GPU minutes of the programme's new runs (from run json; the GPU was shared with a DMS feature-extraction job and other lanes, so minutes are wall-clock upper bounds) | |
| | run | GPU min | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.14 | | |
| | cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.22 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2 | 4.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2 | 4.75 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2 | 4.47 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2 | 5.51 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2 | 5.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123 | 10.72 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 1.12 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 1.09 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 1.21 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 1.12 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 1.08 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2 | 1.58 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2 | 3.71 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2 | 1.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2 | 3.67 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2 | 1.65 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2 | 3.69 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2 | 4.32 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2 | 4.19 | | |
| | cwm3d_v2_s42_v2 | 2.25 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2 | 4.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 3.98 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 3.45 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.82 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2 | 5.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2 | 6.14 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2 | 2.71 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2 | 2.68 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2 | 2.59 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2 | 2.74 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2 | 2.50 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2 | 4.66 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2 | 2.10 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2 | 3.89 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2 | 2.50 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2 | 3.43 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2 | 2.75 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2 | 3.18 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2 | 3.15 | | |
| | motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2 | 2.83 | | |
| | **total (42 runs)** | **139.4** | | |
| ## 6. Provenance | |
| - Inputs: `pred_val.npz` / `pred_test.npz` / `metrics_val.json` / `metrics_test.json` / `run_<name>_<utc>.json` under `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/runs`; gate decisions `/home/USER/cwm3/aide/results/kv2`: pretrain_check_nospatial.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_20260915T000040Z.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_own.json, pretrain_check_nospatial_own_20260915T001217Z.json, s1_decision.json, s1_decision_20260914T234548Z.json, s1b_lam03_decision.json, s1b_lam03_decision_20260915T000039Z.json, s1b_nospatial_decision.json, s1b_nospatial_decision_20260915T000038Z.json, s3_decision.json, s3_decision_20260914T230840Z.json, s3_decision_20260914T234907Z.json; pre-registration row from `/home/USER/cwm3/docs/decisions.md` (S0 UTC 2026-09-14T22:51:07Z). | |
| - Comparison runs `cwm3d_kp_s<k>_v2`, `cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2`, `motionbert_kp_s<k>_v2`, `motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s{42,123,456}_v2` are the EXISTING runs (never retrained); every programme run is a new run dir. | |
| - Selection: val All-MPJPE of the EMA weights inside the trainer; S1 / S1b / S3 decisions from pred_val.npz only (`aide/eval/kv2_gate.py`); one test evaluation per run by the harness; no test number was used for any decision. | |
| - Launcher `aide/train/run_kv2_program.sh` (gate: free VRAM ≥ need + 4 GB, MemAvailable ≥ 28 GB, < 4 trainers, OMP/MKL 4; finished runs skipped); pids `aide/results/kv2/pids.txt`. | |
| - Pending runs referenced above: 0. This block is append-only; earlier blocks are never edited. | |
| - Trainer code hashes (`code_sha256` of each finished programme run's run json; distinct values = code changed between launches, e.g. the train_kp.py:630 guard fix of 2026-09-14T23:11:53Z, behaviour-neutral for dict-output models — see `aide/results/kv2/NOTES.md`): `e313c0ff89746293` (20 runs: motionbert_kp_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_L4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_d192_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s1011_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s123_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s456_v2, motionbert_kp_do0.1_s789_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-3_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_lr1e-4_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.01_s42_v2, motionbert_kp_wd0.1_s42_v2); `8caba4a8efccd311` (18 runs: cwm3d_v2_hazaux_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_khead_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_lam03_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nohaz_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s456_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s1011_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s123_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s456_v2, cwm3d_v2_nospatial_s789_v2, cwm3d_v2_plain_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q060_s42_v2, cwm3d_v2_q090_s42_v2); `22306515fd4a42a0` (2 runs: cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s1011_v2, cwm3d_kp_batonpre_trunkp123_s789_v2); `652c4ba49ba937f2` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_s42_v2); `d44d169e8c2a9bcb` (1 runs: cwm3d_v2_nospatial_batonpre_pretrain_s123). | |
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