benchmark/tables/release_tables/baton/dms_operating_points.md

DMS baselines — operating points at equal alert load (baselines_dms/report_dms.py; numbers copied from eval/operating_points.py CSVs)

item dms_r0 — R0 fixed gaze/eye rule (own HALPE face pack) — 2026-09-14T14:07:57Z

Status: adapted; zero-cost fixed temporal rule on our own face landmarks; no video decoded; single deterministic run (no seeds). Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_r0_20260914T140622Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	54.674	326 / 30	0.500 [0.320, 0.730]	0.113 [0.065, 0.161]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.641	183 / 32	0.469 [0.286, 0.710]	0.300 [0.120, 0.448]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	509 / 62	0.484 [0.353, 0.620]	0.164 [0.093, 0.232]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	31.302	326 / 30	0.133 [0.000, 0.300]	0.148 [0.000, 0.238]	--
low10	engaged	head	23.026	183 / 32	0.125 [0.000, 0.333]	0.400 [0.000, 0.727]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	509 / 62	0.129 [0.021, 0.250]	0.216 [0.042, 0.364]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	20	-0.280 [-1.808, +1.364]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	-1.006 [-2.587, +1.696]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-0.655 [-1.948, +0.807]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	+1.590 [-0.165, +2.888]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	7	-0.500 [-2.414, +2.261]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	9	+0.511 [-0.979, +2.192]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	8.531	0.214	0.196 [0.134, 0.246]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_videomae2_learned — VideoMAEv2 ViT-S frozen features, learned read-out — 2026-09-16T04:38:53Z

Status: adapted; frozen 384-d window embeddings -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_videomae2_learned_20260916T042722Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.586	329 / 31	0.645 [0.486, 0.790]	0.235 [0.140, 0.358]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.358	183 / 32	0.688 [0.357, 0.857]	0.367 [0.117, 0.592]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.667 [0.488, 0.810]	0.290 [0.160, 0.438]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.194 [0.038, 0.357]	0.667 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.188 [0.000, 0.279]	0.857 [0.800, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.190 [0.080, 0.288]	0.750 [0.500, 0.926]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	12.423	329 / 31	0.258 [0.077, 0.452]	0.667 [0.333, 0.909]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	21.313	183 / 32	0.406 [0.143, 0.538]	0.722 [0.333, 0.882]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.182, 0.466]	0.700 [0.455, 0.871]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.059]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.078]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.200]	0.600 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.152]	0.750 [0.667, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.095 [0.029, 0.146]	0.667 [0.400, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.358	329 / 31	0.645 [0.486, 0.790]	0.222 [0.131, 0.343]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.719 [0.400, 0.886]	0.359 [0.120, 0.585]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.683 [0.523, 0.820]	0.279 [0.152, 0.422]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.194 [0.038, 0.357]	0.667 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.188 [0.000, 0.279]	0.857 [0.800, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.190 [0.080, 0.288]	0.750 [0.500, 0.926]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	24.635	329 / 31	0.323 [0.143, 0.529]	0.476 [0.200, 0.800]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	32.945	183 / 32	0.500 [0.208, 0.641]	0.471 [0.138, 0.736]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.250, 0.563]	0.473 [0.256, 0.698]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.059]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.078]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.200]	0.600 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.152]	0.750 [0.667, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.095 [0.029, 0.146]	0.667 [0.400, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.796	329 / 31	0.581 [0.400, 0.769]	0.231 [0.138, 0.356]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.721	183 / 32	0.688 [0.357, 0.857]	0.373 [0.118, 0.594]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.635 [0.446, 0.803]	0.292 [0.164, 0.455]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.194 [0.038, 0.357]	0.667 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.188 [0.000, 0.279]	0.857 [0.800, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.190 [0.080, 0.288]	0.750 [0.500, 0.926]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	11.019	329 / 31	0.226 [0.077, 0.389]	0.636 [0.333, 0.889]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	16.453	183 / 32	0.344 [0.000, 0.500]	0.786 [0.000, 1.000]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.120, 0.414]	0.720 [0.429, 0.875]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.059]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.078]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.200]	0.600 [0.200, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.152]	0.750 [0.667, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.095 [0.029, 0.146]	0.667 [0.400, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	23	-0.510 [-1.832, +0.704]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	22	+2.197 [-0.280, +3.641]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	45	+0.865 [-0.661, +2.296]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	+0.819 [-0.831, +2.094]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-0.181 [-3.954, +2.135]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	8	+0.311 [-1.466, +1.819]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	9	-4.010 [-5.553, -2.816]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	13	-1.813 [-5.367, +0.444]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	22	-2.894 [-4.883, -0.973]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.665 [-1.889, +0.278]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	3	-2.309 [-4.472, -1.206]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.500 [-2.634, -0.731]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.113 [-1.588, +1.027]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	5	-1.187 [-4.448, +0.615]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	pooled	5	-0.659 [-2.237, +0.513]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	manual	0	+0.284 [-1.407, +1.686]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-0.725 [-4.416, +1.418]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	pooled	5	-0.229 [-2.046, +1.209]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	manual	22	-0.506 [-2.226, +1.218]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	24	+1.712 [-0.337, +2.870]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	46	+0.621 [-0.826, +1.835]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	+0.426 [-1.179, +1.567]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	5	+0.175 [-3.508, +2.499]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	8	+0.298 [-1.637, +1.919]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	11	-3.310 [-5.269, -1.483]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	19	-0.566 [-3.381, +1.304]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	30	-1.916 [-3.868, -0.241]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	1	-1.058 [-2.364, -0.012]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-1.953 [-4.053, -0.822]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.513 [-2.760, -0.655]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.506 [-1.849, +0.448]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	4	-0.831 [-3.991, +0.967]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	pooled	6	-0.671 [-2.317, +0.555]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	manual	2	-0.110 [-1.603, +1.024]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	4	-0.369 [-3.927, +1.805]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	pooled	6	-0.241 [-2.114, +1.232]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	manual	21	-0.242 [-1.709, +1.265]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	22	+2.222 [-0.204, +3.653]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	43	+1.010 [-0.610, +2.416]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	4	+0.535 [-1.154, +1.858]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	7	-0.319 [-3.608, +1.754]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	11	+0.102 [-1.667, +1.463]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	8	-3.735 [-5.359, -2.393]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	12	-2.166 [-5.823, +0.260]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	20	-2.938 [-4.949, -1.084]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	1	-0.948 [-2.405, +0.141]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	3	-2.447 [-4.219, -1.300]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	4	-1.710 [-2.870, -0.849]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.397 [-1.916, +0.803]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	6	-1.325 [-4.138, +0.288]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	pooled	8	-0.868 [-2.346, +0.202]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	manual	2	-0.000 [-1.733, +1.411]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	6	-0.862 [-4.074, +1.088]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	pooled	8	-0.438 [-2.113, +0.842]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.819	0.054	0.043 [0.035, 0.084]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_videomae2_ctx — VideoMAEv2 ViT-S frozen features + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T05:01:07Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted; frozen 384-d window embeddings -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_videomae2_ctx_20260916T044942Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.581 [0.385, 0.741]	0.254 [0.143, 0.370]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.318	183 / 32	0.562 [0.273, 0.706]	0.360 [0.111, 0.579]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.571 [0.400, 0.702]	0.298 [0.169, 0.446]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.896	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.119]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.094]	0.750 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	26.565	329 / 31	0.258 [0.106, 0.423]	0.500 [0.250, 0.778]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	25.974	183 / 32	0.406 [0.154, 0.533]	0.591 [0.200, 0.815]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.192, 0.446]	0.553 [0.320, 0.763]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.916	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	2.948	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.323	329 / 31	0.581 [0.385, 0.741]	0.240 [0.135, 0.349]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.625 [0.400, 0.741]	0.345 [0.128, 0.548]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.603 [0.463, 0.703]	0.286 [0.165, 0.426]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.896	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.119]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.094]	0.750 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	33.232	329 / 31	0.323 [0.132, 0.500]	0.417 [0.179, 0.684]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	38.881	183 / 32	0.500 [0.231, 0.636]	0.457 [0.138, 0.711]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.245, 0.537]	0.441 [0.220, 0.683]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.916	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	2.948	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.796	329 / 31	0.548 [0.367, 0.724]	0.258 [0.152, 0.370]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.681	183 / 32	0.562 [0.273, 0.706]	0.360 [0.111, 0.579]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.556 [0.395, 0.682]	0.302 [0.175, 0.451]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.896	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.119]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.094]	0.750 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	24.424	329 / 31	0.226 [0.069, 0.405]	0.583 [0.250, 0.900]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	17.807	183 / 32	0.344 [0.120, 0.467]	0.786 [0.399, 1.000]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.143, 0.398]	0.692 [0.400, 0.889]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.916	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	2.948	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	23	-0.306 [-1.627, +1.082]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	21	+1.537 [-0.986, +2.995]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	44	+0.630 [-0.736, +1.849]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	0	-0.132 [-1.728, +1.104]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	7	-0.069 [-3.119, +1.783]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	7	-0.100 [-1.836, +1.190]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	11	-3.929 [-5.547, -2.650]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	16	-0.913 [-4.304, +1.215]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	27	-2.397 [-4.561, -0.618]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.645 [-1.889, +0.318]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.616 [-4.448, -1.483]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.646 [-2.681, -0.741]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.645 [-1.889, +0.318]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-2.197 [-4.401, -1.083]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.433 [-2.633, -0.602]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.568 [-1.878, +0.523]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	4	-1.634 [-3.974, -0.485]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	4	-1.110 [-2.388, -0.320]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	22	-0.316 [-1.961, +1.610]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	24	+1.325 [-0.505, +2.418]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	46	+0.517 [-0.721, +1.609]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	-0.526 [-2.007, +0.607]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	+0.287 [-2.591, +2.126]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	7	-0.113 [-1.826, +1.291]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	13	-3.542 [-5.457, -1.800]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	20	+0.059 [-2.810, +1.627]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	33	-1.713 [-3.739, -0.141]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-1.039 [-2.364, +0.023]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.259 [-4.047, -1.130]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.659 [-2.823, -0.706]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-1.039 [-2.364, +0.023]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-1.841 [-3.891, -0.681]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	2	-1.446 [-2.760, -0.512]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.961 [-2.354, +0.175]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	3	-1.278 [-3.508, -0.156]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	3	-1.122 [-2.567, -0.185]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	21	-0.252 [-1.653, +1.287]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	20	+1.253 [-1.396, +2.817]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	41	+0.513 [-1.017, +1.769]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	-0.416 [-2.121, +0.912]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	8	-0.206 [-2.738, +1.404]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	9	-0.310 [-1.917, +0.867]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	9	-3.655 [-5.336, -2.234]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	10	-2.497 [-5.879, -0.450]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	pooled	19	-3.067 [-4.898, -1.432]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.929 [-2.405, +0.179]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.753 [-4.276, -1.529]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.856 [-3.039, -0.827]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.929 [-2.405, +0.179]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-2.334 [-4.155, -1.184]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.643 [-2.853, -0.728]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.852 [-2.386, +0.332]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.772 [-3.612, -0.784]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.319 [-2.626, -0.506]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.864	0.050	0.057 [0.048, 0.100]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_l2cs_gaze_learned — L2CS-Net (Gaze360), learned read-out — 2026-09-16T05:14:34Z

Status: adapted; gaze angles -> 8 s causal summaries -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_l2cs_gaze_learned_20260916T050514Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.656	329 / 31	0.419 [0.176, 0.609]	0.110 [0.036, 0.209]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.199	183 / 32	0.531 [0.355, 0.840]	0.195 [0.095, 0.299]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.476 [0.317, 0.642]	0.146 [0.070, 0.234]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.167 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.125 [0.000, 0.308]	0.222 [0.000, 0.471]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.079 [0.014, 0.151]	0.208 [0.040, 0.444]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	43.690	329 / 31	0.258 [0.091, 0.478]	0.095 [0.028, 0.200]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	34.499	183 / 32	0.406 [0.227, 0.762]	0.220 [0.098, 0.382]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.205, 0.489]	0.147 [0.070, 0.253]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.273]	0.300 [0.000, 0.800]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.112]	0.250 [0.000, 0.625]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.253	329 / 31	0.452 [0.176, 0.677]	0.115 [0.035, 0.223]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.461	183 / 32	0.594 [0.448, 0.840]	0.194 [0.093, 0.293]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.524 [0.356, 0.686]	0.150 [0.069, 0.239]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.167 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.125 [0.000, 0.308]	0.222 [0.000, 0.471]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.079 [0.014, 0.151]	0.208 [0.040, 0.444]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	48.533	329 / 31	0.323 [0.150, 0.525]	0.101 [0.035, 0.200]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	45.613	183 / 32	0.500 [0.333, 0.810]	0.208 [0.099, 0.329]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.281, 0.551]	0.148 [0.072, 0.237]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.273]	0.300 [0.000, 0.800]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.112]	0.250 [0.000, 0.625]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.867	329 / 31	0.355 [0.156, 0.546]	0.099 [0.035, 0.190]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.761	183 / 32	0.531 [0.355, 0.840]	0.200 [0.098, 0.306]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.444 [0.302, 0.590]	0.143 [0.070, 0.230]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.167 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.125 [0.000, 0.308]	0.222 [0.000, 0.471]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.079 [0.014, 0.151]	0.208 [0.040, 0.444]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	38.566	329 / 31	0.226 [0.087, 0.400]	0.108 [0.035, 0.216]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	30.993	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.625]	0.208 [0.085, 0.355]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.173, 0.417]	0.153 [0.069, 0.264]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.094 [0.000, 0.273]	0.300 [0.000, 0.800]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.048 [0.000, 0.112]	0.250 [0.000, 0.625]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	16	-0.774 [-2.878, +0.761]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	19	+0.747 [-1.530, +2.285]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	35	-0.002 [-1.640, +1.065]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	0	-0.852 [-1.847, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-1.706 [-3.000, -0.329]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	4	-1.286 [-2.157, -0.465]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	12	-2.577 [-4.407, -0.904]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	15	-1.250 [-2.750, +0.604]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	27	-1.903 [-3.160, -0.796]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	0	-2.866 [-4.733, -1.766]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.889 [-2.779, -1.183]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-2.253 [-3.745, -1.103]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.578 [-2.455, -0.764]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	3	-2.216 [-3.736, -1.007]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	3	-1.559 [-2.453, -0.725]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	15	-0.765 [-3.324, +1.267]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	23	+0.837 [-1.329, +2.355]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	+0.049 [-1.842, +1.305]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	0	-1.245 [-2.348, -0.385]	DMS EARLIER
low10	engaged	4	-1.350 [-2.562, -0.015]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	4	-1.298 [-2.205, -0.541]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	12	-1.923 [-4.567, +0.228]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	19	-0.622 [-2.514, +0.996]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	31	-1.262 [-3.081, +0.120]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-2.509 [-4.168, -1.400]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.902 [-2.865, -1.162]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	3	-1.897 [-3.319, -0.707]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.590 [-2.473, -0.827]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	3	-1.859 [-3.306, -0.657]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	3	-1.571 [-2.470, -0.787]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	15	-0.761 [-2.684, +0.794]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	19	+0.747 [-1.505, +2.264]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	34	+0.005 [-1.550, +1.106]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	0	-1.135 [-2.404, -0.238]	DMS EARLIER
low10	engaged	4	-1.844 [-2.975, -0.268]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	4	-1.495 [-2.416, -0.638]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	11	-2.381 [-4.005, -0.643]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	10	-2.097 [-3.705, +0.176]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	21	-2.237 [-3.395, -1.036]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-3.003 [-4.405, -1.729]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-2.098 [-3.061, -1.268]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	3	-2.391 [-3.581, -1.017]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.787 [-2.711, -0.932]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	3	-2.353 [-3.552, -0.926]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	3	-1.768 [-2.705, -0.895]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.798	0.059	0.036 [0.025, 0.089]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_l2cs_gaze_ctx — L2CS-Net (Gaze360) + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T05:29:55Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted; gaze angles -> 8 s causal summaries -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_l2cs_gaze_ctx_20260916T051914Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.516 [0.323, 0.750]	0.193 [0.108, 0.283]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.279	183 / 32	0.250 [0.092, 0.520]	0.211 [0.083, 0.343]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.381 [0.218, 0.583]	0.198 [0.119, 0.291]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.235]	0.750 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.105]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.125]	0.667 [0.250, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	34.355	329 / 31	0.258 [0.118, 0.445]	0.320 [0.158, 0.500]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	54.417	183 / 32	0.406 [0.150, 0.786]	0.224 [0.089, 0.351]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.176, 0.523]	0.253 [0.135, 0.377]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.358	329 / 31	0.613 [0.407, 0.852]	0.209 [0.122, 0.303]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.422	183 / 32	0.312 [0.121, 0.600]	0.192 [0.076, 0.323]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.460 [0.290, 0.684]	0.203 [0.124, 0.299]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.235]	0.750 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.105]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.125]	0.667 [0.250, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	36.636	329 / 31	0.323 [0.167, 0.522]	0.333 [0.172, 0.500]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	61.708	183 / 32	0.500 [0.290, 0.824]	0.213 [0.102, 0.325]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.277, 0.586]	0.248 [0.148, 0.355]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.796	329 / 31	0.516 [0.323, 0.750]	0.211 [0.117, 0.312]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.761	183 / 32	0.250 [0.092, 0.520]	0.216 [0.087, 0.350]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.381 [0.218, 0.583]	0.212 [0.127, 0.311]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.235]	0.750 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.105]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.125]	0.667 [0.250, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	24.565	329 / 31	0.226 [0.105, 0.400]	0.500 [0.273, 0.727]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	53.541	183 / 32	0.344 [0.136, 0.667]	0.208 [0.080, 0.341]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.155, 0.438]	0.269 [0.145, 0.407]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	23	+0.171 [-1.286, +1.849]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	15	-0.609 [-2.044, +1.071]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-0.225 [-1.185, +1.051]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	+0.623 [-0.413, +2.032]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.316 [-2.436, +0.092]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	8	-0.362 [-1.279, +0.737]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	13	-2.032 [-3.625, -0.041]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	17	-0.075 [-1.628, +1.352]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	30	-1.038 [-2.178, +0.067]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	2	-2.528 [-3.914, -1.578]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.717 [-2.477, -1.106]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.239 [-0.756, +0.100]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-2.306 [-3.611, -1.392]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.289 [-1.876, -0.663]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	2	+0.035 [-0.637, +0.739]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.709 [-2.772, -0.615]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	7	-0.851 [-1.595, -0.052]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	22	+0.174 [-1.649, +2.342]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	-0.969 [-2.408, +0.882]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	40	-0.406 [-1.603, +1.100]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	+0.229 [-0.887, +1.438]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-0.959 [-1.922, +0.501]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	8	-0.375 [-1.191, +0.561]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	12	-1.919 [-3.934, +0.642]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	23	+0.716 [-0.635, +2.062]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	35	-0.581 [-1.938, +0.684]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.172 [-3.404, -1.304]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.730 [-2.590, -1.112]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.632 [-1.544, +0.067]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-1.950 [-3.115, -1.149]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.302 [-2.089, -0.615]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	2	-0.358 [-1.252, +0.286]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.353 [-2.281, -0.252]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	7	-0.863 [-1.545, -0.136]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	21	+0.348 [-1.361, +2.350]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	15	-1.091 [-2.500, +0.632]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	36	-0.383 [-1.528, +1.226]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	+0.339 [-1.008, +1.842]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.453 [-2.431, +0.180]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	8	-0.571 [-1.552, +0.607]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	12	-2.148 [-4.162, +0.235]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	16	-0.409 [-1.777, +1.152]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	28	-1.265 [-2.425, +0.085]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.666 [-3.704, -1.567]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.927 [-2.818, -1.200]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.523 [-1.367, +0.037]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	3	-2.444 [-3.464, -1.336]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.498 [-2.275, -0.706]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	2	-0.248 [-1.248, +0.585]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.847 [-2.711, -0.579]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	7	-1.060 [-1.837, -0.202]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.841	0.038	0.040 [0.026, 0.100]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_openface3_learned — OpenFace 3.0, learned read-out — 2026-09-16T05:50:21Z

Status: adapted (optional baseline); full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_openface3_learned_20260916T053944Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.387 [0.259, 0.536]	0.169 [0.099, 0.268]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.398	183 / 32	0.375 [0.167, 0.667]	0.300 [0.122, 0.488]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.381 [0.234, 0.523]	0.216 [0.123, 0.344]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	0.333 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.049]	0.200 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	49.234	329 / 31	0.258 [0.138, 0.421]	0.170 [0.089, 0.312]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	51.270	183 / 32	0.406 [0.214, 0.667]	0.277 [0.122, 0.432]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.219, 0.452]	0.223 [0.124, 0.356]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.288	329 / 31	0.387 [0.259, 0.536]	0.164 [0.096, 0.262]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.342	183 / 32	0.531 [0.382, 0.682]	0.298 [0.143, 0.433]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.460 [0.358, 0.548]	0.223 [0.126, 0.333]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	0.333 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.049]	0.200 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	52.744	329 / 31	0.323 [0.207, 0.476]	0.172 [0.091, 0.300]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	52.346	183 / 32	0.500 [0.346, 0.682]	0.308 [0.154, 0.444]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.320, 0.512]	0.236 [0.133, 0.357]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.796	329 / 31	0.355 [0.222, 0.531]	0.172 [0.105, 0.269]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.800	183 / 32	0.375 [0.167, 0.667]	0.316 [0.135, 0.500]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.365 [0.224, 0.507]	0.225 [0.132, 0.353]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.111]	0.333 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.049]	0.200 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	38.601	329 / 31	0.226 [0.118, 0.364]	0.212 [0.115, 0.375]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	47.526	183 / 32	0.344 [0.109, 0.667]	0.314 [0.103, 0.500]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.150, 0.422]	0.265 [0.145, 0.408]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	19	-1.839 [-3.280, -0.826]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	engaged	19	-0.419 [-2.312, +0.465]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-1.117 [-2.373, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low10	manual	1	-0.687 [-1.880, +0.223]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-1.628 [-3.004, +0.430]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	5	-1.165 [-2.049, -0.185]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-2.284 [-3.921, -1.107]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	20	+0.047 [-2.032, +1.110]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	36	-1.100 [-2.642, -0.127]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.700 [-1.889, +0.208]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.553 [-4.123, -1.578]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.641 [-2.544, -0.983]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.694 [-1.889, +0.223]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.528 [-4.104, -1.561]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	2	-1.625 [-2.530, -0.976]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.694 [-1.889, +0.223]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	2	-2.331 [-4.025, -1.016]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	2	-1.525 [-2.482, -0.775]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	18	-1.629 [-3.082, -0.562]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	engaged	21	-0.369 [-2.200, +0.467]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	39	-0.989 [-2.198, -0.262]	DMS EARLIER
low10	manual	1	-1.081 [-2.383, -0.061]	DMS EARLIER
low10	engaged	4	-1.272 [-2.493, +0.667]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	5	-1.178 [-2.063, -0.276]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-2.100 [-3.764, -0.825]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	21	-0.450 [-2.210, +0.360]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	37	-1.262 [-2.569, -0.458]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-1.094 [-2.383, -0.079]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	1	-2.197 [-3.590, -1.320]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.654 [-2.616, -0.976]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-1.087 [-2.383, -0.067]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.172 [-3.561, -1.293]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	2	-1.638 [-2.611, -0.962]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-1.087 [-2.383, -0.067]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	2	-1.975 [-3.495, -0.794]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	2	-1.538 [-2.603, -0.766]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	18	-1.587 [-2.852, -0.625]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	engaged	19	-0.500 [-2.311, +0.316]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	37	-1.035 [-2.267, -0.312]	DMS EARLIER
low10	manual	1	-0.971 [-2.392, +0.086]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-1.766 [-3.038, +0.550]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	5	-1.375 [-2.366, -0.305]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	13	-3.348 [-4.528, -2.215]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	17	-0.744 [-2.321, +0.075]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	30	-2.025 [-3.305, -1.130]	DMS EARLIER
low1	manual	0	-0.984 [-2.405, +0.074]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.691 [-4.011, -1.591]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	1	-1.851 [-2.846, -1.092]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.977 [-2.405, +0.086]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.666 [-3.985, -1.563]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	2	-1.835 [-2.832, -1.069]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.977 [-2.405, +0.086]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	2	-2.469 [-3.946, -1.028]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	2	-1.735 [-2.814, -0.851]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.864	0.046	0.030 [0.027, 0.080]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_openface3_ctx — OpenFace 3.0 + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T06:03:41Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted (optional baseline); full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_openface3_ctx_20260916T055450Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.387 [0.263, 0.546]	0.200 [0.121, 0.314]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.318	183 / 32	0.375 [0.196, 0.708]	0.353 [0.176, 0.516]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.381 [0.244, 0.550]	0.255 [0.161, 0.368]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.152]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.192]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.014, 0.143]	0.571 [0.221, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	41.654	329 / 31	0.258 [0.121, 0.424]	0.308 [0.160, 0.464]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	54.218	183 / 32	0.406 [0.212, 0.750]	0.289 [0.149, 0.424]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.205, 0.509]	0.296 [0.192, 0.415]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.065]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.323	329 / 31	0.419 [0.308, 0.552]	0.203 [0.118, 0.308]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.375 [0.196, 0.708]	0.279 [0.139, 0.414]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.397 [0.256, 0.561]	0.234 [0.143, 0.337]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.152]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.192]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.014, 0.143]	0.571 [0.221, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	46.638	329 / 31	0.323 [0.187, 0.500]	0.238 [0.136, 0.375]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	60.473	183 / 32	0.500 [0.312, 0.808]	0.242 [0.132, 0.345]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.281, 0.557]	0.241 [0.154, 0.342]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.065]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.796	329 / 31	0.387 [0.263, 0.546]	0.211 [0.125, 0.327]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.761	183 / 32	0.375 [0.196, 0.708]	0.364 [0.184, 0.538]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.381 [0.244, 0.550]	0.267 [0.167, 0.386]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.152]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.192]	0.667 [0.500, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.014, 0.143]	0.571 [0.221, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	32.355	329 / 31	0.226 [0.111, 0.368]	0.350 [0.210, 0.533]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	45.733	183 / 32	0.344 [0.140, 0.708]	0.379 [0.174, 0.591]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.151, 0.449]	0.367 [0.227, 0.520]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.065]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	21	-0.703 [-1.958, +0.594]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	17	+0.244 [-1.280, +1.456]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-0.222 [-1.317, +0.682]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	-0.187 [-0.738, +0.250]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	7	-0.878 [-2.011, +0.547]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	10	-0.538 [-1.311, +0.180]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	19	-1.606 [-3.022, +0.210]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	18	+0.619 [-1.031, +2.014]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	37	-0.476 [-1.764, +0.677]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	2	-2.519 [-3.921, -1.553]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.713 [-2.464, -1.100]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-0.761 [-1.640, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.438 [-3.841, -1.479]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.613 [-2.318, -1.004]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.755 [-1.634, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	4	-2.147 [-3.119, -1.288]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.462 [-2.054, -0.892]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	20	-0.694 [-2.644, +1.209]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	20	-0.194 [-1.479, +1.013]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	40	-0.440 [-1.685, +0.664]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	4	-0.581 [-1.280, -0.119]	DMS EARLIER
low10	engaged	7	-0.522 [-1.468, +0.809]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	11	-0.551 [-1.251, +0.066]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	19	-1.387 [-3.080, +0.878]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	23	+1.450 [+0.317, +2.538]	HEAD EARLIER
same_recall	pooled	42	+0.054 [-1.304, +1.235]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.163 [-3.391, -1.283]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.725 [-2.605, -1.112]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-1.155 [-2.125, -0.366]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.081 [-3.239, -1.254]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.625 [-2.405, -1.059]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-1.148 [-2.116, -0.363]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	4	-1.791 [-2.513, -1.013]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.475 [-1.990, -1.019]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	20	-0.494 [-1.746, +1.208]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	17	+0.200 [-1.335, +1.434]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	37	-0.141 [-1.230, +0.898]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	4	-0.471 [-1.162, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	7	-1.016 [-2.141, +0.635]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	pooled	11	-0.748 [-1.609, +0.056]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	15	-2.187 [-3.587, -0.381]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	17	+0.025 [-1.446, +1.176]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	32	-1.063 [-2.352, +0.056]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.656 [-3.721, -1.567]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	2	-1.922 [-2.809, -1.202]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-1.045 [-2.194, -0.208]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.575 [-3.618, -1.503]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.822 [-2.641, -1.096]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-1.039 [-2.173, -0.206]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	4	-2.284 [-3.043, -1.168]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.671 [-2.268, -1.036]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.887	0.033	0.044 [0.032, 0.090]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_ov_gaze_learned — Intel OMZ head-pose / gaze / eye pipeline, learned read-out — 2026-09-16T06:18:03Z

Status: adapted; assembled from Intel OMZ components; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_ov_gaze_learned_20260916T060903Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.161 [0.043, 0.308]	0.076 [0.020, 0.143]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.279	183 / 32	0.312 [0.200, 0.476]	0.323 [0.120, 0.531]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.238 [0.158, 0.317]	0.155 [0.082, 0.260]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.959	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.167 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	58.253	329 / 31	0.258 [0.114, 0.462]	0.108 [0.052, 0.179]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	50.593	183 / 32	0.406 [0.267, 0.583]	0.361 [0.133, 0.571]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.229, 0.455]	0.191 [0.104, 0.310]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.500 [0.500, 0.500]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.253	329 / 31	0.194 [0.067, 0.368]	0.090 [0.033, 0.164]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.438 [0.304, 0.632]	0.350 [0.146, 0.538]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.317 [0.233, 0.429]	0.187 [0.103, 0.308]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.959	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.167 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	63.763	329 / 31	0.323 [0.156, 0.583]	0.103 [0.057, 0.174]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	58.800	183 / 32	0.500 [0.346, 0.677]	0.286 [0.113, 0.446]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.310, 0.542]	0.170 [0.096, 0.274]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.500 [0.500, 0.500]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.831	329 / 31	0.161 [0.043, 0.308]	0.086 [0.023, 0.159]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.721	183 / 32	0.312 [0.200, 0.476]	0.333 [0.125, 0.537]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.238 [0.158, 0.317]	0.170 [0.091, 0.279]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	10.036	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.959	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.167 [0.000, 0.500]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	58.183	329 / 31	0.226 [0.088, 0.417]	0.096 [0.042, 0.173]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	49.876	183 / 32	0.344 [0.214, 0.480]	0.344 [0.120, 0.556]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.179, 0.408]	0.171 [0.086, 0.294]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.051]	0.500 [0.500, 0.500]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	15	-1.968 [-3.666, +0.017]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	15	-0.300 [-2.132, +0.822]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	30	-1.121 [-2.211, +0.016]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	-0.019 [-1.160, +1.208]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-1.884 [-3.506, -0.648]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	5	-0.967 [-1.838, -0.077]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	17	-1.684 [-3.337, +0.138]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	17	+0.181 [-1.892, +1.355]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	34	-0.737 [-1.941, +0.431]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	1	-0.684 [-1.548, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	2	-2.509 [-4.127, -1.402]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.611 [-2.377, -0.869]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-0.677 [-1.548, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.469 [-4.092, -1.339]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.587 [-2.346, -0.847]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.613 [-1.472, +0.057]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	4	-2.034 [-3.604, -0.953]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.335 [-2.099, -0.619]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	15	-1.835 [-3.610, +0.353]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	20	+0.188 [-2.071, +1.438]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	35	-0.808 [-2.135, +0.481]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	-0.413 [-1.483, +0.670]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-1.528 [-2.809, -0.526]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	5	-0.979 [-1.857, -0.156]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	17	-1.229 [-3.050, +0.837]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	23	+1.275 [-0.826, +2.453]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	40	+0.043 [-1.379, +1.419]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	1	-1.077 [-2.045, -0.300]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.153 [-3.531, -1.261]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.624 [-2.440, -0.967]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-1.071 [-2.032, -0.300]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.112 [-3.474, -1.206]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.600 [-2.408, -0.935]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-1.006 [-1.980, -0.191]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	4	-1.678 [-2.917, -0.881]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.348 [-2.211, -0.698]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	13	-1.806 [-3.535, +0.227]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	15	-0.275 [-2.095, +0.836]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	28	-1.029 [-2.059, -0.004]	DMS EARLIER
low10	manual	1	-0.303 [-1.629, +0.956]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	4	-2.022 [-3.147, -0.731]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	5	-1.176 [-2.078, -0.173]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-1.223 [-3.014, +0.748]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	16	+0.025 [-2.088, +1.187]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	32	-0.589 [-1.787, +0.575]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	1	-0.968 [-2.104, -0.166]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	2	-2.647 [-3.765, -1.513]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.821 [-2.632, -1.058]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-0.961 [-2.088, -0.153]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.606 [-3.693, -1.450]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.797 [-2.597, -1.022]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.897 [-2.027, -0.020]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	4	-2.172 [-3.212, -1.041]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.544 [-2.404, -0.782]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	0.961	0.071	0.062 [0.042, 0.107]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_ov_gaze_ctx — Intel OMZ head-pose / gaze / eye pipeline + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T06:31:13Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted; assembled from Intel OMZ components; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_ov_gaze_ctx_20260916T062317Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.551	329 / 31	0.290 [0.135, 0.478]	0.158 [0.071, 0.256]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.358	183 / 32	0.375 [0.217, 0.546]	0.333 [0.125, 0.520]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.229, 0.447]	0.226 [0.131, 0.345]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.219]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.147]	0.444 [0.142, 0.778]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	37.303	329 / 31	0.258 [0.108, 0.444]	0.296 [0.154, 0.462]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	52.904	183 / 32	0.406 [0.261, 0.609]	0.302 [0.129, 0.457]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.229, 0.452]	0.300 [0.177, 0.427]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.091]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.358	329 / 31	0.290 [0.135, 0.478]	0.155 [0.070, 0.253]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.438 [0.304, 0.632]	0.286 [0.123, 0.438]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.365 [0.283, 0.466]	0.215 [0.130, 0.321]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.219]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.147]	0.444 [0.142, 0.778]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	57.621	329 / 31	0.323 [0.167, 0.500]	0.152 [0.072, 0.244]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	58.640	183 / 32	0.500 [0.364, 0.700]	0.254 [0.113, 0.387]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.333, 0.512]	0.202 [0.120, 0.298]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.091]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.867	329 / 31	0.290 [0.135, 0.478]	0.167 [0.077, 0.264]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.761	183 / 32	0.375 [0.217, 0.546]	0.333 [0.125, 0.520]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.229, 0.447]	0.233 [0.135, 0.357]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.097 [0.000, 0.219]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.063 [0.015, 0.147]	0.444 [0.142, 0.778]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	37.303	329 / 31	0.258 [0.108, 0.444]	0.296 [0.154, 0.462]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	47.805	183 / 32	0.344 [0.167, 0.500]	0.344 [0.111, 0.526]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.302 [0.192, 0.405]	0.322 [0.176, 0.467]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	engaged	head	2.988	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	5.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.143]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.091]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	22	-0.435 [-2.352, +1.873]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	-0.197 [-1.953, +1.716]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	40	-0.314 [-1.444, +1.122]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	+0.639 [+0.036, +1.431]	HEAD EARLIER
low10	engaged	6	-1.431 [-2.645, -0.039]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	9	-0.413 [-1.227, +0.414]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	14	-1.919 [-3.535, +0.113]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	19	+0.762 [-0.594, +2.065]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	33	-0.557 [-1.811, +0.610]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	0	-2.866 [-4.733, -1.766]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.889 [-2.779, -1.183]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-0.781 [-1.661, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	4	-2.119 [-3.648, -1.190]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.460 [-2.310, -0.782]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	2	-0.216 [-1.041, +0.492]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.872 [-3.023, -0.944]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	7	-1.057 [-1.739, -0.426]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	21	-0.426 [-2.510, +2.184]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	21	+0.531 [-0.829, +1.872]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	42	+0.060 [-1.214, +1.409]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	4	+0.245 [-0.379, +0.835]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.075 [-1.991, -0.024]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	10	-0.425 [-1.208, +0.301]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	22	-0.219 [-2.164, +2.206]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	22	+1.100 [-0.367, +2.293]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	44	+0.451 [-0.783, +1.727]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-2.509 [-4.168, -1.400]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.902 [-2.865, -1.162]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-1.174 [-2.176, -0.373]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	4	-1.763 [-3.085, -0.927]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.473 [-2.436, -0.805]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.610 [-1.366, +0.090]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-1.516 [-2.413, -0.769]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	8	-1.070 [-1.734, -0.504]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	20	-0.119 [-2.165, +2.442]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	-0.191 [-1.964, +1.774]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-0.156 [-1.375, +1.360]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	4	+0.355 [-0.412, +1.168]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.569 [-2.492, -0.330]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	10	-0.622 [-1.562, +0.307]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	13	-1.458 [-3.148, +0.796]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	18	-0.241 [-2.030, +1.682]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	31	-0.840 [-2.079, +0.477]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-3.003 [-4.405, -1.729]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-2.098 [-3.061, -1.268]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-1.065 [-2.215, -0.218]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	4	-2.256 [-3.388, -1.115]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	5	-1.670 [-2.651, -0.900]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.500 [-1.478, +0.207]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	5	-2.009 [-2.851, -0.936]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	8	-1.267 [-2.034, -0.491]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	1.189	0.056	0.049 [0.032, 0.103]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_mp_face_ctx — MediaPipe Face Landmarker + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T06:51:18Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted; blendshapes + head pose -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_mp_face_ctx_20260916T064105Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.586	324 / 31	0.581 [0.432, 0.778]	0.182 [0.110, 0.262]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.358	179 / 32	0.438 [0.276, 0.667]	0.389 [0.200, 0.517]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.508 [0.386, 0.667]	0.237 [0.154, 0.319]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	324 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.208]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.087]	0.400 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	30.355	324 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.348 [0.156, 0.600]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	47.247	179 / 32	0.406 [0.250, 0.600]	0.382 [0.207, 0.517]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.333 [0.214, 0.453]	0.368 [0.210, 0.517]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.358	324 / 31	0.581 [0.432, 0.778]	0.176 [0.107, 0.254]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.422	179 / 32	0.500 [0.333, 0.759]	0.340 [0.175, 0.475]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.540 [0.422, 0.690]	0.228 [0.151, 0.310]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	324 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.208]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.087]	0.400 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	35.689	324 / 31	0.323 [0.178, 0.500]	0.333 [0.160, 0.536]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	50.752	179 / 32	0.500 [0.333, 0.759]	0.400 [0.212, 0.545]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.413 [0.290, 0.543]	0.371 [0.226, 0.529]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.831	324 / 31	0.581 [0.432, 0.778]	0.202 [0.122, 0.286]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.761	179 / 32	0.438 [0.276, 0.667]	0.389 [0.200, 0.517]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.508 [0.386, 0.667]	0.256 [0.175, 0.341]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.966	324 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.208]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	10.039	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.087]	0.400 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	29.127	324 / 31	0.226 [0.087, 0.417]	0.333 [0.125, 0.583]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	43.223	179 / 32	0.344 [0.205, 0.600]	0.393 [0.250, 0.571]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.286 [0.174, 0.418]	0.367 [0.222, 0.528]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	1.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	324 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.133]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.019	179 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	503 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.061]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	25	+1.361 [+0.212, +2.333]	HEAD EARLIER
dms_matched	engaged	21	+1.012 [-0.987, +2.292]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	46	+1.184 [+0.154, +2.170]	HEAD EARLIER
low10	manual	3	+0.506 [+0.045, +1.319]	HEAD EARLIER
low10	engaged	3	-2.159 [-3.450, -1.085]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	6	-0.848 [-1.510, -0.046]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-2.806 [-3.865, -1.645]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	20	+0.634 [-1.652, +2.045]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	36	-1.059 [-2.659, +0.546]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	2	-0.600 [-1.348, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	1	-2.731 [-4.248, -1.678]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.683 [-2.343, -0.974]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.265 [-0.780, +0.100]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	1	-2.725 [-4.225, -1.677]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.514 [-2.146, -0.793]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	+0.187 [-0.029, +0.573]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	2	-2.416 [-3.765, -1.331]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.135 [-1.718, -0.344]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	24	+1.352 [-0.056, +2.757]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	24	+0.953 [-1.050, +2.237]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	48	+1.149 [-0.021, +2.222]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	+0.113 [-0.835, +1.078]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	3	-1.803 [-2.960, -0.737]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	6	-0.860 [-1.563, -0.009]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-2.142 [-3.875, +0.140]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	24	+0.550 [-1.100, +1.564]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	40	-0.775 [-2.351, +0.633]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	2	-0.994 [-2.015, -0.293]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	1	-2.375 [-3.868, -1.295]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.695 [-2.487, -1.011]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.658 [-1.555, +0.047]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	1	-2.369 [-3.858, -1.277]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.527 [-2.274, -0.810]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.206 [-1.037, +0.471]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	2	-2.059 [-3.209, -1.082]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.148 [-1.805, -0.433]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	23	+1.503 [+0.187, +2.880]	HEAD EARLIER
dms_matched	engaged	21	+1.012 [-0.961, +2.293]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	44	+1.254 [+0.103, +2.277]	HEAD EARLIER
low10	manual	3	+0.223 [-0.642, +1.113]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	3	-2.297 [-3.335, -1.031]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	6	-1.057 [-1.861, -0.146]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	15	-2.365 [-3.655, -0.775]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	engaged	19	-0.319 [-2.865, +1.072]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	34	-1.325 [-2.906, +0.055]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	2	-0.884 [-1.872, -0.207]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	1	-2.869 [-4.131, -1.626]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	3	-1.892 [-2.671, -1.095]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.548 [-1.393, +0.036]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	1	-2.862 [-4.115, -1.617]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.724 [-2.384, -0.895]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.097 [-0.904, +0.455]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	2	-2.553 [-3.573, -1.305]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	5	-1.344 [-2.040, -0.458]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	1.189	0.048	0.053 [0.039, 0.108]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_ov_action_learned — Intel OMZ driver-action-recognition logits, learned read-out — 2026-09-16T07:26:58Z

Status: adapted; 9 action logits (window cache) -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_ov_action_learned_20260916T071554Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.621	329 / 31	0.290 [0.147, 0.467]	0.122 [0.060, 0.184]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.318	183 / 32	0.219 [0.000, 0.357]	0.152 [0.000, 0.319]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.254 [0.139, 0.364]	0.133 [0.063, 0.219]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.250 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.200 [0.000, 0.600]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	52.849	329 / 31	0.258 [0.111, 0.421]	0.119 [0.052, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	60.114	183 / 32	0.406 [0.167, 0.571]	0.191 [0.053, 0.333]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.187, 0.462]	0.156 [0.073, 0.241]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	5.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.393	329 / 31	0.290 [0.147, 0.467]	0.118 [0.057, 0.180]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.382	183 / 32	0.281 [0.045, 0.455]	0.161 [0.019, 0.316]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.160, 0.409]	0.136 [0.064, 0.218]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.250 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.200 [0.000, 0.600]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	61.341	329 / 31	0.323 [0.154, 0.500]	0.108 [0.044, 0.172]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	62.265	183 / 32	0.500 [0.214, 0.694]	0.198 [0.059, 0.333]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.250, 0.559]	0.149 [0.072, 0.232]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	5.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.761	329 / 31	0.290 [0.147, 0.467]	0.127 [0.062, 0.190]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.681	183 / 32	0.219 [0.000, 0.357]	0.152 [0.000, 0.319]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.254 [0.139, 0.364]	0.137 [0.065, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	9.931	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.250 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.200 [0.000, 0.600]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	51.480	329 / 31	0.226 [0.091, 0.375]	0.111 [0.042, 0.174]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	58.282	183 / 32	0.344 [0.107, 0.514]	0.167 [0.036, 0.304]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.159, 0.404]	0.140 [0.066, 0.224]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	engaged	head	0.996	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	3.018	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.067	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	1.000 [1.000, 1.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	5.053	329 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.118]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	4.980	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	19	-0.642 [-2.519, +0.851]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	17	-0.022 [-3.587, +2.020]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	36	-0.327 [-2.470, +1.237]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	-0.345 [-1.447, +0.778]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	0	-2.556 [-4.330, -1.023]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	1	-1.468 [-2.420, -0.504]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	19	-0.771 [-2.729, +0.732]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	20	+1.678 [-1.605, +3.480]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	39	+0.473 [-1.678, +2.113]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-0.729 [-1.786, +0.168]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	0	-2.866 [-4.733, -1.766]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.814 [-2.710, -1.013]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.697 [-1.786, +0.228]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	0	-2.866 [-4.733, -1.766]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	0	-1.798 [-2.700, -0.991]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	0	-0.568 [-1.653, +0.428]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	0	-2.612 [-4.348, -1.196]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	0	-1.606 [-2.510, -0.732]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	18	-0.613 [-2.847, +1.204]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	20	+0.131 [-3.426, +2.107]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	38	-0.235 [-2.456, +1.430]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	-0.739 [-1.794, +0.325]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	0	-2.200 [-3.850, -0.722]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	2	-1.481 [-2.370, -0.573]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	19	-0.310 [-2.312, +1.403]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	23	+1.516 [-1.153, +2.995]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	42	+0.617 [-1.291, +1.982]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.123 [-2.347, -0.190]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-2.509 [-4.168, -1.400]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.827 [-2.774, -1.042]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-1.090 [-2.346, -0.119]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	0	-2.509 [-4.168, -1.400]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	0	-1.811 [-2.759, -1.022]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.961 [-2.070, -0.049]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	0	-2.256 [-3.879, -0.896]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	1	-1.619 [-2.532, -0.810]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	18	-0.310 [-2.073, +1.082]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	17	+0.003 [-3.559, +2.030]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	35	-0.151 [-2.048, +1.331]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	2	-0.629 [-1.879, +0.371]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	0	-2.694 [-4.142, -1.009]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	2	-1.678 [-2.534, -0.680]	DMS EARLIER
same_recall	manual	16	-0.484 [-2.447, +1.057]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	20	+1.622 [-1.579, +3.400]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	36	+0.586 [-1.530, +2.140]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.013 [-2.386, -0.010]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-3.003 [-4.405, -1.729]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-2.024 [-2.983, -1.143]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	0	-0.981 [-2.365, +0.007]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	0	-3.003 [-4.405, -1.729]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	0	-2.008 [-2.966, -1.097]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.852 [-2.100, +0.073]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	0	-2.750 [-4.176, -1.163]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	1	-1.816 [-2.780, -0.897]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	1.255	0.080	0.093 [0.064, 0.137]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]

item dms_ov_action_ctx — Intel OMZ driver-action-recognition logits + CockpitWM current-state context — 2026-09-16T07:52:17Z

Status: matched-context arm (C ii): adapted; 9 action logits (window cache) -> common read-out; full val+test exposure (tiers A-C), tier-A read-out applied only (no refit), 3 seeds; loads dms_matched / low10 / same_recall + 1, 3, 5 alerts/h. Evaluator: eval/operating_points.py (unchanged): thresholds bisected on the full test split to the load, 60 s per-route cooldown; recall / precision on the human gold at that fixed threshold (shares of the enriched gold set, not natural rates). Source: results/operating_points/dms_ov_action_ctx_20260916T074131Z/.

load	regime	score	alerts/h achieved	n gold / pos	recall [CI]	precision [CI]	lead median s
dms_matched	manual	head	55.621	329 / 31	0.452 [0.289, 0.667]	0.167 [0.095, 0.230]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	49.318	183 / 32	0.281 [0.105, 0.440]	0.209 [0.062, 0.357]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.365 [0.239, 0.508]	0.181 [0.098, 0.254]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	55.588	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	49.378	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.286 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
same_recall	manual	head	43.620	329 / 31	0.258 [0.133, 0.406]	0.170 [0.070, 0.283]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	53.342	183 / 32	0.406 [0.214, 0.572]	0.241 [0.089, 0.367]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.333 [0.214, 0.439]	0.208 [0.103, 0.301]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	55.553	328 / 31	0.258 [0.125, 0.421]	0.103 [0.049, 0.169]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	49.337	183 / 32	0.406 [0.259, 0.619]	0.619 [0.353, 0.824]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.333 [0.210, 0.470]	0.212 [0.110, 0.337]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.096	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.663	183 / 32	0.062 [0.000, 0.207]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.085]	0.222 [0.000, 0.667]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	56.358	329 / 31	0.452 [0.289, 0.667]	0.165 [0.095, 0.227]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	53.422	183 / 32	0.406 [0.214, 0.572]	0.241 [0.089, 0.367]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.429 [0.295, 0.569]	0.194 [0.108, 0.266]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	53.425	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.286 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low10	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
same_recall	manual	head	47.620	329 / 31	0.323 [0.176, 0.483]	0.167 [0.071, 0.266]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	59.636	183 / 32	0.500 [0.276, 0.647]	0.232 [0.082, 0.359]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.413 [0.277, 0.528]	0.202 [0.101, 0.292]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	56.329	328 / 31	0.323 [0.160, 0.539]	0.105 [0.050, 0.182]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	53.385	183 / 32	0.500 [0.317, 0.739]	0.485 [0.292, 0.636]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.413 [0.298, 0.556]	0.203 [0.108, 0.308]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low1	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low3	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	15.484	328 / 31	0.032 [0.000, 0.107]	0.143 [0.000, 0.250]	--
low5	engaged	dms	12.749	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.060]	0.125 [0.000, 0.222]	--
dms_matched	manual	head	53.831	329 / 31	0.452 [0.289, 0.667]	0.175 [0.101, 0.242]	--
dms_matched	engaged	head	48.721	183 / 32	0.281 [0.105, 0.440]	0.214 [0.064, 0.364]	--
dms_matched	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.365 [0.239, 0.508]	0.189 [0.104, 0.263]	--
dms_matched	manual	dms	53.860	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
dms_matched	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
dms_matched	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low10	manual	head	10.001	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.333 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	engaged	head	9.999	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.286 [0.000, 0.750]	--
low10	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low10	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low10	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
same_recall	manual	head	41.268	329 / 31	0.226 [0.125, 0.346]	0.175 [0.075, 0.289]	--
same_recall	engaged	head	52.426	183 / 32	0.344 [0.184, 0.530]	0.216 [0.080, 0.328]	--
same_recall	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.384]	0.198 [0.099, 0.280]	--
same_recall	manual	dms	53.825	328 / 31	0.226 [0.097, 0.375]	0.103 [0.043, 0.170]	--
same_recall	engaged	dms	48.730	183 / 32	0.344 [0.200, 0.577]	0.579 [0.312, 0.790]	--
same_recall	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.286 [0.190, 0.400]	0.207 [0.116, 0.314]	--
low1	manual	head	0.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	head	1.036	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low1	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low1	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low1	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low3	manual	head	2.983	329 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	head	3.028	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	-- [--, --]	--
low3	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low3	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low3	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--
low5	manual	head	4.983	329 / 31	0.065 [0.000, 0.179]	0.667 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	engaged	head	5.059	183 / 32	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	pooled	head	--	512 / 63	0.032 [0.000, 0.094]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	manual	dms	18.694	328 / 31	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	0.000 [0.000, 0.000]	--
low5	engaged	dms	15.582	183 / 32	0.031 [0.000, 0.138]	0.500 [0.000, 1.000]	--
low5	pooled	dms	--	511 / 63	0.016 [0.000, 0.057]	0.100 [0.000, 0.400]	--

Paired lead time (baseline − DMS, undetected → 0) and verdict by the pre-stated rule:

load	regime	n both detected	Δ lead mean s [CI]	verdict
dms_matched	manual	23	+0.110 [-1.340, +1.738]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	+0.544 [-2.435, +2.334]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	41	+0.330 [-1.269, +1.731]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	1	+0.213 [-1.104, +1.550]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.559 [-2.465, -0.224]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	7	-0.687 [-1.588, +0.570]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	19	-1.452 [-2.747, +0.196]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	18	+1.366 [-2.285, +3.429]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	37	-0.021 [-2.043, +1.817]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-0.881 [-1.889, +0.000]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	engaged	0	-2.866 [-4.733, -1.766]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.889 [-2.779, -1.183]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	1	-0.710 [-1.785, +0.190]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.478 [-4.185, -1.183]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	3	-1.608 [-2.508, -0.767]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	1	-0.594 [-1.708, +0.352]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	3	-2.162 [-3.620, -0.723]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	4	-1.390 [-2.178, -0.559]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	22	+0.177 [-1.322, +2.032]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	20	+0.831 [-2.528, +2.725]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	42	+0.510 [-1.208, +2.067]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	-0.181 [-1.409, +0.957]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.203 [-1.579, -0.412]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	9	-0.700 [-1.359, +0.113]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	20	-0.965 [-2.524, +1.014]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	21	+1.362 [-2.097, +3.168]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	41	+0.217 [-1.664, +1.822]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.274 [-2.384, -0.390]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-2.509 [-4.168, -1.400]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-1.902 [-2.865, -1.162]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-1.103 [-2.246, -0.291]	DMS EARLIER
low3	engaged	2	-2.122 [-3.516, -1.110]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	4	-1.621 [-2.550, -0.888]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.987 [-2.018, -0.239]	DMS EARLIER
low5	engaged	3	-1.806 [-2.949, -0.790]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	6	-1.403 [-2.111, -0.739]	DMS EARLIER
dms_matched	manual	22	+0.358 [-1.249, +2.329]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	engaged	18	+0.556 [-2.366, +2.342]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
dms_matched	pooled	40	+0.459 [-1.208, +1.866]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	manual	3	-0.071 [-1.423, +1.198]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low10	engaged	6	-1.697 [-2.261, -0.548]	DMS EARLIER
low10	pooled	9	-0.897 [-1.764, +0.134]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	manual	18	-1.281 [-2.671, +0.482]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	engaged	18	+1.284 [-2.271, +3.290]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
same_recall	pooled	36	+0.022 [-2.013, +1.826]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low1	manual	0	-1.165 [-2.454, -0.248]	DMS EARLIER
low1	engaged	0	-3.003 [-4.405, -1.729]	DMS EARLIER
low1	pooled	0	-2.098 [-3.061, -1.268]	DMS EARLIER
low3	manual	2	-0.994 [-2.327, +0.030]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low3	engaged	2	-2.616 [-3.747, -1.390]	DMS EARLIER
low3	pooled	4	-1.817 [-2.800, -0.936]	DMS EARLIER
low5	manual	3	-0.877 [-2.114, +0.074]	EQUAL (CI ⊃ 0)
low5	engaged	3	-2.300 [-3.210, -1.029]	DMS EARLIER
low5	pooled	6	-1.600 [-2.385, -0.752]	DMS EARLIER

Calibration (temperature fitted on clean-val; 10 equal-count bins):

score	T	ECE raw	ECE calibrated [CI]
head	1.128	0.055	0.062 [0.044, 0.119]
dms	20.000	0.622	0.408 [0.346, 0.459]