benchmark/tables/release_tables/baton/future_state_eval.md

F2′ future-state head — occupancy / recovery evaluation (FS_dwell_s<k>, test split, seeds [0, 1, 2], n_boot 500)

Detached horizon-conditioned head (models/future_state_head.py, ~0.034 M params) on the FROZEN FINAL joint model's driver state z_U + label-free dwell features (train/train_future_state.py FEATURES), trained on the TRAIN anchors of both regimes, selected on the validation occupancy BCE. States: hands_on / head_turned (v2 causal kin targets) and gaze_off (our own landmark chain, validation pending). Baselines: (a) persistence pi_k = z0; (b) dwell table = TRAIN empirical P(s_{t+k} | z0, time-in-state bin) (dwell-timer extrapolation, no model); (c) FINAL closed form = forward_marginal of the frozen model's own hazards (hands / head only). Δ = FS − baseline, shared-resample device-cluster bootstrap per seed; verdict = kill_checks.beats over seeds (Brier lower better: BEATS = FS lower). Nothing here changes the headline model; the adoption question of F2′ is answered downstream by the WP2 timing evaluator (alert_timing_eval) and the warning head.

Provenance

seed	regime	FS run	FS model_id (frozen joint)	FS code	FINAL run	rows
0	manual	FS_dwell_s0	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s0_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s0_final	512,934
0	engaged	FS_dwell_s0	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s0_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s0_final	451,840
1	manual	FS_dwell_s1	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s1_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s1_final	512,934
1	engaged	FS_dwell_s1	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s1_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s1_final	451,840
2	manual	FS_dwell_s2	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s2_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s2_final	512,934
2	engaged	FS_dwell_s2	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s2_final:ckpt_ep004_b00000.pt	26ceffb55018	I1_all_minus_road2drv_s2_final	451,840

Occupancy BRIER of P(state = 1 at t + k) — FS vs baselines (Δ = FS − baseline, lower better)

regime	state	horizon	baseline	FS per seed	baseline per seed	Δ per seed [CI]	mean Δ ± sd	verdict	n / pos
engaged	hands_on	1s	dwell_table	0.0211 / 0.0212 / 0.0211	0.0218 / 0.0218 / 0.0218	-0.0007 [-0.0013,-0.0002] / -0.0006 [-0.0012,+0.0001] / -0.0007 [-0.0013,-0.0000]	-0.0007 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	1s	final_closed_form	0.0211 / 0.0212 / 0.0211	0.0223 / 0.0225 / 0.0219	-0.0013 [-0.0024,-0.0004] / -0.0013 [-0.0022,-0.0007] / -0.0008 [-0.0013,-0.0003]	-0.0011 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	1s	persistence	0.0211 / 0.0212 / 0.0211	0.0270 / 0.0270 / 0.0270	-0.0059 [-0.0081,-0.0041] / -0.0058 [-0.0079,-0.0039] / -0.0058 [-0.0080,-0.0040]	-0.0058 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	2s	dwell_table	0.0281 / 0.0283 / 0.0282	0.0289 / 0.0289 / 0.0289	-0.0008 [-0.0017,-0.0000] / -0.0006 [-0.0014,+0.0004] / -0.0007 [-0.0015,+0.0001]	-0.0007 ± 0.0001	INCONCLUSIVE	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	2s	final_closed_form	0.0281 / 0.0283 / 0.0282	0.0296 / 0.0298 / 0.0292	-0.0015 [-0.0026,-0.0005] / -0.0014 [-0.0022,-0.0008] / -0.0010 [-0.0016,-0.0004]	-0.0013 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	2s	persistence	0.0281 / 0.0283 / 0.0282	0.0363 / 0.0363 / 0.0363	-0.0082 [-0.0112,-0.0060] / -0.0080 [-0.0108,-0.0058] / -0.0082 [-0.0110,-0.0059]	-0.0081 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	3s	dwell_table	0.0329 / 0.0334 / 0.0331	0.0340 / 0.0340 / 0.0340	-0.0011 [-0.0020,-0.0003] / -0.0007 [-0.0016,+0.0003] / -0.0009 [-0.0018,-0.0001]	-0.0009 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	3s	final_closed_form	0.0329 / 0.0334 / 0.0331	0.0345 / 0.0348 / 0.0342	-0.0015 [-0.0026,-0.0005] / -0.0014 [-0.0021,-0.0008] / -0.0011 [-0.0016,-0.0004]	-0.0014 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	3s	persistence	0.0329 / 0.0334 / 0.0331	0.0431 / 0.0431 / 0.0431	-0.0102 [-0.0135,-0.0076] / -0.0098 [-0.0130,-0.0072] / -0.0100 [-0.0132,-0.0074]	-0.0100 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	5s	dwell_table	0.0394 / 0.0402 / 0.0397	0.0408 / 0.0408 / 0.0408	-0.0014 [-0.0023,-0.0005] / -0.0005 [-0.0016,+0.0007] / -0.0011 [-0.0020,-0.0003]	-0.0010 ± 0.0004	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	hands_on	5s	final_closed_form	0.0394 / 0.0402 / 0.0397	0.0411 / 0.0416 / 0.0408	-0.0017 [-0.0027,-0.0006] / -0.0013 [-0.0020,-0.0005] / -0.0012 [-0.0017,-0.0004]	-0.0014 ± 0.0003	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	hands_on	5s	persistence	0.0394 / 0.0402 / 0.0397	0.0533 / 0.0533 / 0.0533	-0.0140 [-0.0183,-0.0104] / -0.0131 [-0.0172,-0.0094] / -0.0137 [-0.0180,-0.0101]	-0.0136 ± 0.0004	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	head_turned	1s	dwell_table	0.0487 / 0.0492 / 0.0485	0.0522 / 0.0522 / 0.0522	-0.0034 [-0.0048,-0.0021] / -0.0029 [-0.0039,-0.0017] / -0.0036 [-0.0049,-0.0024]	-0.0033 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	1s	final_closed_form	0.0487 / 0.0492 / 0.0485	0.0504 / 0.0509 / 0.0509	-0.0016 [-0.0027,-0.0009] / -0.0017 [-0.0028,-0.0009] / -0.0023 [-0.0039,-0.0012]	-0.0019 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	1s	persistence	0.0487 / 0.0492 / 0.0485	0.0711 / 0.0711 / 0.0711	-0.0223 [-0.0345,-0.0149] / -0.0218 [-0.0333,-0.0147] / -0.0225 [-0.0347,-0.0150]	-0.0222 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	2s	dwell_table	0.0592 / 0.0592 / 0.0592	0.0614 / 0.0614 / 0.0614	-0.0021 [-0.0029,-0.0011] / -0.0022 [-0.0030,-0.0011] / -0.0021 [-0.0030,-0.0011]	-0.0022 ± 0.0000	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	2s	final_closed_form	0.0592 / 0.0592 / 0.0592	0.0611 / 0.0615 / 0.0615	-0.0018 [-0.0024,-0.0014] / -0.0023 [-0.0039,-0.0013] / -0.0023 [-0.0037,-0.0012]	-0.0021 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	2s	persistence	0.0592 / 0.0592 / 0.0592	0.0909 / 0.0909 / 0.0909	-0.0317 [-0.0454,-0.0229] / -0.0317 [-0.0453,-0.0231] / -0.0317 [-0.0454,-0.0230]	-0.0317 ± 0.0000	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	3s	dwell_table	0.0637 / 0.0635 / 0.0638	0.0656 / 0.0656 / 0.0656	-0.0019 [-0.0029,-0.0007] / -0.0021 [-0.0031,-0.0008] / -0.0018 [-0.0029,-0.0005]	-0.0019 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	3s	final_closed_form	0.0637 / 0.0635 / 0.0638	0.0658 / 0.0661 / 0.0660	-0.0021 [-0.0031,-0.0014] / -0.0026 [-0.0047,-0.0012] / -0.0023 [-0.0041,-0.0010]	-0.0023 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	3s	persistence	0.0637 / 0.0635 / 0.0638	0.1009 / 0.1009 / 0.1009	-0.0372 [-0.0502,-0.0284] / -0.0374 [-0.0503,-0.0287] / -0.0371 [-0.0499,-0.0284]	-0.0372 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	5s	dwell_table	0.0682 / 0.0679 / 0.0683	0.0700 / 0.0700 / 0.0700	-0.0018 [-0.0030,-0.0004] / -0.0021 [-0.0032,-0.0009] / -0.0017 [-0.0030,-0.0001]	-0.0019 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	head_turned	5s	final_closed_form	0.0682 / 0.0679 / 0.0683	0.0707 / 0.0710 / 0.0708	-0.0025 [-0.0039,-0.0015] / -0.0031 [-0.0059,-0.0013] / -0.0025 [-0.0043,-0.0010]	-0.0027 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	head_turned	5s	persistence	0.0682 / 0.0679 / 0.0683	0.1124 / 0.1124 / 0.1124	-0.0442 [-0.0584,-0.0341] / -0.0445 [-0.0587,-0.0343] / -0.0440 [-0.0580,-0.0342]	-0.0442 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	gaze_off	1s	dwell_table	0.0697 / 0.0700 / 0.0701	0.0729 / 0.0729 / 0.0729	-0.0032 [-0.0044,-0.0020] / -0.0029 [-0.0039,-0.0017] / -0.0028 [-0.0040,-0.0015]	-0.0030 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,940 / 49,549
engaged	gaze_off	1s	persistence	0.0697 / 0.0700 / 0.0701	0.0994 / 0.0994 / 0.0994	-0.0297 [-0.0452,-0.0197] / -0.0294 [-0.0444,-0.0195] / -0.0293 [-0.0448,-0.0192]	-0.0295 ± 0.0002	BEATS	450,940 / 49,549
engaged	gaze_off	2s	dwell_table	0.0817 / 0.0817 / 0.0823	0.0841 / 0.0841 / 0.0841	-0.0024 [-0.0035,-0.0009] / -0.0024 [-0.0035,-0.0011] / -0.0019 [-0.0032,+0.0001]	-0.0022 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,828 / 49,787
engaged	gaze_off	2s	persistence	0.0817 / 0.0817 / 0.0823	0.1243 / 0.1243 / 0.1243	-0.0426 [-0.0603,-0.0305] / -0.0426 [-0.0606,-0.0304] / -0.0420 [-0.0591,-0.0299]	-0.0424 ± 0.0003	BEATS	450,828 / 49,787
engaged	gaze_off	3s	dwell_table	0.0869 / 0.0869 / 0.0876	0.0892 / 0.0892 / 0.0892	-0.0023 [-0.0038,-0.0004] / -0.0023 [-0.0038,-0.0005] / -0.0015 [-0.0034,+0.0010]	-0.0020 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,748 / 49,999
engaged	gaze_off	3s	persistence	0.0869 / 0.0869 / 0.0876	0.1369 / 0.1369 / 0.1369	-0.0500 [-0.0676,-0.0371] / -0.0500 [-0.0682,-0.0369] / -0.0493 [-0.0668,-0.0366]	-0.0498 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,748 / 49,999
engaged	gaze_off	5s	dwell_table	0.0922 / 0.0921 / 0.0929	0.0942 / 0.0942 / 0.0942	-0.0020 [-0.0042,+0.0005] / -0.0021 [-0.0041,+0.0003] / -0.0013 [-0.0038,+0.0018]	-0.0018 ± 0.0004	NOT_WORSE	450,632 / 50,514
engaged	gaze_off	5s	persistence	0.0922 / 0.0921 / 0.0929	0.1505 / 0.1505 / 0.1505	-0.0583 [-0.0769,-0.0434] / -0.0584 [-0.0779,-0.0433] / -0.0576 [-0.0761,-0.0430]	-0.0581 ± 0.0004	BEATS	450,632 / 50,514
manual	hands_on	1s	dwell_table	0.0293 / 0.0291 / 0.0293	0.0305 / 0.0305 / 0.0305	-0.0012 [-0.0018,+0.0002] / -0.0014 [-0.0019,-0.0006] / -0.0012 [-0.0019,+0.0001]	-0.0013 ± 0.0001	INCONCLUSIVE	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	1s	final_closed_form	0.0293 / 0.0291 / 0.0293	0.0300 / 0.0305 / 0.0300	-0.0007 [-0.0024,-0.0002] / -0.0013 [-0.0054,-0.0004] / -0.0007 [-0.0021,-0.0003]	-0.0009 ± 0.0004	BEATS	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	1s	persistence	0.0293 / 0.0291 / 0.0293	0.0404 / 0.0404 / 0.0404	-0.0110 [-0.0176,-0.0091] / -0.0113 [-0.0179,-0.0093] / -0.0111 [-0.0175,-0.0091]	-0.0111 ± 0.0001	BEATS	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	2s	dwell_table	0.0362 / 0.0358 / 0.0361	0.0371 / 0.0371 / 0.0371	-0.0009 [-0.0017,+0.0021] / -0.0013 [-0.0019,+0.0004] / -0.0011 [-0.0018,+0.0019]	-0.0011 ± 0.0002	NOT_WORSE	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	2s	final_closed_form	0.0362 / 0.0358 / 0.0361	0.0369 / 0.0372 / 0.0367	-0.0007 [-0.0023,-0.0002] / -0.0014 [-0.0060,-0.0004] / -0.0006 [-0.0017,-0.0003]	-0.0009 ± 0.0004	BEATS	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	2s	persistence	0.0362 / 0.0358 / 0.0361	0.0511 / 0.0511 / 0.0511	-0.0149 [-0.0227,-0.0122] / -0.0153 [-0.0234,-0.0125] / -0.0150 [-0.0228,-0.0124]	-0.0151 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	3s	dwell_table	0.0403 / 0.0398 / 0.0399	0.0411 / 0.0411 / 0.0411	-0.0008 [-0.0017,+0.0028] / -0.0013 [-0.0019,+0.0007] / -0.0012 [-0.0019,+0.0019]	-0.0011 ± 0.0003	NOT_WORSE	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	3s	final_closed_form	0.0403 / 0.0398 / 0.0399	0.0409 / 0.0412 / 0.0407	-0.0006 [-0.0019,-0.0002] / -0.0014 [-0.0057,-0.0004] / -0.0007 [-0.0019,-0.0004]	-0.0009 ± 0.0005	BEATS	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	3s	persistence	0.0403 / 0.0398 / 0.0399	0.0577 / 0.0577 / 0.0577	-0.0174 [-0.0271,-0.0140] / -0.0179 [-0.0282,-0.0143] / -0.0178 [-0.0277,-0.0142]	-0.0177 ± 0.0003	BEATS	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	5s	dwell_table	0.0455 / 0.0450 / 0.0449	0.0463 / 0.0463 / 0.0463	-0.0008 [-0.0017,+0.0027] / -0.0013 [-0.0021,+0.0012] / -0.0014 [-0.0022,+0.0015]	-0.0012 ± 0.0003	NOT_WORSE	503,161 / 467,401
manual	hands_on	5s	final_closed_form	0.0455 / 0.0450 / 0.0449	0.0461 / 0.0463 / 0.0458	-0.0006 [-0.0020,-0.0002] / -0.0013 [-0.0050,-0.0004] / -0.0009 [-0.0023,-0.0004]	-0.0009 ± 0.0003	BEATS	503,161 / 467,401
manual	hands_on	5s	persistence	0.0455 / 0.0450 / 0.0449	0.0669 / 0.0669 / 0.0669	-0.0214 [-0.0353,-0.0163] / -0.0219 [-0.0361,-0.0167] / -0.0220 [-0.0360,-0.0168]	-0.0217 ± 0.0003	BEATS	503,161 / 467,401
manual	head_turned	1s	dwell_table	0.0559 / 0.0556 / 0.0556	0.0636 / 0.0636 / 0.0636	-0.0077 [-0.0119,-0.0059] / -0.0080 [-0.0124,-0.0061] / -0.0080 [-0.0127,-0.0061]	-0.0079 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	1s	final_closed_form	0.0559 / 0.0556 / 0.0556	0.0573 / 0.0577 / 0.0571	-0.0014 [-0.0026,-0.0009] / -0.0022 [-0.0040,-0.0014] / -0.0016 [-0.0029,-0.0010]	-0.0017 ± 0.0004	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	1s	persistence	0.0559 / 0.0556 / 0.0556	0.0833 / 0.0833 / 0.0833	-0.0274 [-0.0490,-0.0194] / -0.0278 [-0.0489,-0.0198] / -0.0277 [-0.0494,-0.0196]	-0.0276 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	2s	dwell_table	0.0688 / 0.0683 / 0.0685	0.0776 / 0.0776 / 0.0776	-0.0088 [-0.0140,-0.0067] / -0.0093 [-0.0149,-0.0071] / -0.0091 [-0.0143,-0.0070]	-0.0091 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	2s	final_closed_form	0.0688 / 0.0683 / 0.0685	0.0700 / 0.0704 / 0.0698	-0.0012 [-0.0024,-0.0008] / -0.0021 [-0.0038,-0.0015] / -0.0014 [-0.0026,-0.0009]	-0.0015 ± 0.0005	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	2s	persistence	0.0688 / 0.0683 / 0.0685	0.1102 / 0.1102 / 0.1102	-0.0415 [-0.0688,-0.0301] / -0.0419 [-0.0696,-0.0304] / -0.0418 [-0.0694,-0.0304]	-0.0417 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	3s	dwell_table	0.0753 / 0.0749 / 0.0748	0.0847 / 0.0847 / 0.0847	-0.0094 [-0.0147,-0.0074] / -0.0099 [-0.0158,-0.0076] / -0.0099 [-0.0156,-0.0077]	-0.0097 ± 0.0003	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	3s	final_closed_form	0.0753 / 0.0749 / 0.0748	0.0765 / 0.0768 / 0.0761	-0.0013 [-0.0025,-0.0008] / -0.0019 [-0.0038,-0.0014] / -0.0013 [-0.0031,-0.0006]	-0.0015 ± 0.0004	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	3s	persistence	0.0753 / 0.0749 / 0.0748	0.1268 / 0.1268 / 0.1268	-0.0515 [-0.0813,-0.0384] / -0.0519 [-0.0825,-0.0386] / -0.0520 [-0.0825,-0.0387]	-0.0518 ± 0.0003	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	5s	dwell_table	0.0831 / 0.0826 / 0.0828	0.0918 / 0.0918 / 0.0918	-0.0086 [-0.0136,-0.0070] / -0.0092 [-0.0153,-0.0072] / -0.0090 [-0.0144,-0.0071]	-0.0089 ± 0.0003	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	head_turned	5s	final_closed_form	0.0831 / 0.0826 / 0.0828	0.0847 / 0.0846 / 0.0839	-0.0015 [-0.0027,-0.0010] / -0.0020 [-0.0043,-0.0013] / -0.0011 [-0.0034,-0.0005]	-0.0015 ± 0.0004	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	head_turned	5s	persistence	0.0831 / 0.0826 / 0.0828	0.1457 / 0.1457 / 0.1457	-0.0626 [-0.0960,-0.0473] / -0.0631 [-0.0974,-0.0474] / -0.0629 [-0.0976,-0.0473]	-0.0629 ± 0.0003	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	gaze_off	1s	dwell_table	0.0671 / 0.0669 / 0.0670	0.0763 / 0.0763 / 0.0763	-0.0092 [-0.0134,-0.0077] / -0.0094 [-0.0137,-0.0078] / -0.0093 [-0.0135,-0.0078]	-0.0093 ± 0.0001	BEATS	507,279 / 69,400
manual	gaze_off	1s	persistence	0.0671 / 0.0669 / 0.0670	0.0967 / 0.0967 / 0.0967	-0.0295 [-0.0533,-0.0205] / -0.0297 [-0.0535,-0.0206] / -0.0297 [-0.0533,-0.0205]	-0.0296 ± 0.0001	BEATS	507,279 / 69,400
manual	gaze_off	2s	dwell_table	0.0797 / 0.0796 / 0.0793	0.0919 / 0.0919 / 0.0919	-0.0122 [-0.0177,-0.0102] / -0.0124 [-0.0177,-0.0104] / -0.0126 [-0.0184,-0.0105]	-0.0124 ± 0.0002	BEATS	507,086 / 69,529
manual	gaze_off	2s	persistence	0.0797 / 0.0796 / 0.0793	0.1243 / 0.1243 / 0.1243	-0.0446 [-0.0751,-0.0310] / -0.0448 [-0.0751,-0.0312] / -0.0450 [-0.0756,-0.0313]	-0.0448 ± 0.0002	BEATS	507,086 / 69,529
manual	gaze_off	3s	dwell_table	0.0862 / 0.0862 / 0.0858	0.0999 / 0.0999 / 0.0999	-0.0137 [-0.0196,-0.0114] / -0.0137 [-0.0197,-0.0114] / -0.0142 [-0.0210,-0.0117]	-0.0139 ± 0.0003	BEATS	505,823 / 69,775
manual	gaze_off	3s	persistence	0.0862 / 0.0862 / 0.0858	0.1418 / 0.1418 / 0.1418	-0.0556 [-0.0893,-0.0396] / -0.0556 [-0.0897,-0.0396] / -0.0561 [-0.0909,-0.0397]	-0.0558 ± 0.0003	BEATS	505,823 / 69,775
manual	gaze_off	5s	dwell_table	0.0942 / 0.0943 / 0.0941	0.1080 / 0.1080 / 0.1080	-0.0137 [-0.0201,-0.0114] / -0.0137 [-0.0203,-0.0114] / -0.0139 [-0.0216,-0.0113]	-0.0138 ± 0.0001	BEATS	500,784 / 69,917
manual	gaze_off	5s	persistence	0.0942 / 0.0943 / 0.0941	0.1629 / 0.1629 / 0.1629	-0.0687 [-0.1093,-0.0493] / -0.0686 [-0.1091,-0.0492] / -0.0688 [-0.1105,-0.0490]	-0.0687 ± 0.0001	BEATS	500,784 / 69,917

Occupancy AUROC of P(state = 1 at t + k) — FS vs baselines (Δ = FS − baseline)

regime	state	horizon	baseline	FS per seed	baseline per seed	Δ per seed [CI]	mean Δ ± sd	verdict	n / pos
engaged	hands_on	1s	dwell_table	0.9786 / 0.9786 / 0.9785	0.9644 / 0.9644 / 0.9644	+0.0142 [+0.0104,+0.0215] / +0.0142 [+0.0100,+0.0216] / +0.0141 [+0.0100,+0.0215]	+0.0142 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	1s	final_closed_form	0.9786 / 0.9786 / 0.9785	0.9774 / 0.9754 / 0.9768	+0.0013 [+0.0006,+0.0024] / +0.0032 [+0.0015,+0.0045] / +0.0017 [+0.0011,+0.0024]	+0.0020 ± 0.0010	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	1s	persistence	0.9786 / 0.9786 / 0.9785	0.9201 / 0.9201 / 0.9201	+0.0585 [+0.0449,+0.0832] / +0.0585 [+0.0450,+0.0838] / +0.0584 [+0.0451,+0.0825]	+0.0585 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,445 / 408,462
engaged	hands_on	2s	dwell_table	0.9624 / 0.9624 / 0.9625	0.9426 / 0.9426 / 0.9426	+0.0197 [+0.0138,+0.0297] / +0.0198 [+0.0132,+0.0308] / +0.0198 [+0.0132,+0.0308]	+0.0198 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	2s	final_closed_form	0.9624 / 0.9624 / 0.9625	0.9611 / 0.9580 / 0.9605	+0.0013 [-0.0004,+0.0030] / +0.0044 [+0.0018,+0.0062] / +0.0020 [+0.0010,+0.0028]	+0.0025 ± 0.0016	BEATS	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	2s	persistence	0.9624 / 0.9624 / 0.9625	0.8922 / 0.8922 / 0.8922	+0.0702 [+0.0558,+0.0962] / +0.0703 [+0.0547,+0.0976] / +0.0703 [+0.0553,+0.0962]	+0.0703 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,276 / 408,299
engaged	hands_on	3s	dwell_table	0.9499 / 0.9501 / 0.9500	0.9257 / 0.9257 / 0.9257	+0.0243 [+0.0164,+0.0369] / +0.0245 [+0.0157,+0.0375] / +0.0243 [+0.0155,+0.0383]	+0.0243 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	3s	final_closed_form	0.9499 / 0.9501 / 0.9500	0.9488 / 0.9446 / 0.9475	+0.0012 [-0.0008,+0.0030] / +0.0055 [+0.0020,+0.0079] / +0.0025 [+0.0012,+0.0036]	+0.0031 ± 0.0022	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	3s	persistence	0.9499 / 0.9501 / 0.9500	0.8719 / 0.8719 / 0.8719	+0.0781 [+0.0634,+0.1044] / +0.0783 [+0.0620,+0.1060] / +0.0781 [+0.0624,+0.1042]	+0.0782 ± 0.0001	BEATS	450,159 / 408,169
engaged	hands_on	5s	dwell_table	0.9303 / 0.9310 / 0.9307	0.9004 / 0.9004 / 0.9004	+0.0300 [+0.0198,+0.0468] / +0.0306 [+0.0196,+0.0468] / +0.0303 [+0.0192,+0.0485]	+0.0303 ± 0.0003	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	hands_on	5s	final_closed_form	0.9303 / 0.9310 / 0.9307	0.9286 / 0.9240 / 0.9274	+0.0017 [-0.0006,+0.0041] / +0.0070 [+0.0026,+0.0103] / +0.0032 [+0.0017,+0.0044]	+0.0040 ± 0.0028	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	hands_on	5s	persistence	0.9303 / 0.9310 / 0.9307	0.8416 / 0.8416 / 0.8416	+0.0887 [+0.0744,+0.1144] / +0.0894 [+0.0730,+0.1153] / +0.0890 [+0.0725,+0.1145]	+0.0890 ± 0.0003	BEATS	449,975 / 407,960
engaged	head_turned	1s	dwell_table	0.8742 / 0.8766 / 0.8743	0.8321 / 0.8321 / 0.8321	+0.0420 [+0.0324,+0.0550] / +0.0444 [+0.0351,+0.0575] / +0.0421 [+0.0329,+0.0577]	+0.0429 ± 0.0013	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	1s	final_closed_form	0.8742 / 0.8766 / 0.8743	0.8597 / 0.8527 / 0.8501	+0.0145 [+0.0082,+0.0200] / +0.0239 [+0.0122,+0.0338] / +0.0242 [+0.0135,+0.0319]	+0.0209 ± 0.0055	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	1s	persistence	0.8742 / 0.8766 / 0.8743	0.7596 / 0.7596 / 0.7596	+0.1146 [+0.0921,+0.1370] / +0.1169 [+0.0944,+0.1405] / +0.1147 [+0.0933,+0.1375]	+0.1154 ± 0.0013	BEATS	450,653 / 36,342
engaged	head_turned	2s	dwell_table	0.8069 / 0.8115 / 0.8071	0.7732 / 0.7732 / 0.7732	+0.0337 [+0.0130,+0.0553] / +0.0383 [+0.0186,+0.0582] / +0.0339 [+0.0145,+0.0555]	+0.0353 ± 0.0026	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	2s	final_closed_form	0.8069 / 0.8115 / 0.8071	0.7861 / 0.7795 / 0.7806	+0.0208 [+0.0123,+0.0273] / +0.0320 [+0.0164,+0.0441] / +0.0264 [+0.0160,+0.0334]	+0.0264 ± 0.0056	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	2s	persistence	0.8069 / 0.8115 / 0.8071	0.6931 / 0.6931 / 0.6931	+0.1138 [+0.0947,+0.1315] / +0.1184 [+0.0995,+0.1365] / +0.1140 [+0.0954,+0.1329]	+0.1154 ± 0.0026	BEATS	450,530 / 36,549
engaged	head_turned	3s	dwell_table	0.7716 / 0.7771 / 0.7699	0.7406 / 0.7406 / 0.7406	+0.0311 [+0.0057,+0.0552] / +0.0365 [+0.0144,+0.0587] / +0.0294 [+0.0072,+0.0544]	+0.0323 ± 0.0037	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	3s	final_closed_form	0.7716 / 0.7771 / 0.7699	0.7464 / 0.7429 / 0.7415	+0.0252 [+0.0157,+0.0316] / +0.0342 [+0.0189,+0.0451] / +0.0284 [+0.0159,+0.0420]	+0.0293 ± 0.0045	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	3s	persistence	0.7716 / 0.7771 / 0.7699	0.6602 / 0.6602 / 0.6602	+0.1114 [+0.0863,+0.1341] / +0.1168 [+0.0922,+0.1387] / +0.1097 [+0.0857,+0.1341]	+0.1126 ± 0.0037	BEATS	450,435 / 36,740
engaged	head_turned	5s	dwell_table	0.7281 / 0.7374 / 0.7249	0.7029 / 0.7029 / 0.7029	+0.0252 [+0.0001,+0.0512] / +0.0345 [+0.0133,+0.0573] / +0.0220 [-0.0017,+0.0483]	+0.0273 ± 0.0065	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	head_turned	5s	final_closed_form	0.7281 / 0.7374 / 0.7249	0.6938 / 0.6915 / 0.6885	+0.0343 [+0.0208,+0.0430] / +0.0459 [+0.0265,+0.0583] / +0.0364 [+0.0175,+0.0613]	+0.0389 ± 0.0062	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	head_turned	5s	persistence	0.7281 / 0.7374 / 0.7249	0.6234 / 0.6234 / 0.6234	+0.1047 [+0.0778,+0.1302] / +0.1139 [+0.0889,+0.1363] / +0.1014 [+0.0755,+0.1250]	+0.1067 ± 0.0065	BEATS	450,317 / 37,166
engaged	gaze_off	1s	dwell_table	0.8377 / 0.8402 / 0.8348	0.7500 / 0.7500 / 0.7500	+0.0877 [+0.0684,+0.1031] / +0.0902 [+0.0709,+0.1053] / +0.0848 [+0.0661,+0.1008]	+0.0876 ± 0.0027	BEATS	450,940 / 49,549
engaged	gaze_off	1s	persistence	0.8377 / 0.8402 / 0.8348	0.7456 / 0.7456 / 0.7456	+0.0921 [+0.0739,+0.1071] / +0.0946 [+0.0755,+0.1092] / +0.0892 [+0.0711,+0.1040]	+0.0920 ± 0.0027	BEATS	450,940 / 49,549
engaged	gaze_off	2s	dwell_table	0.7741 / 0.7763 / 0.7710	0.6867 / 0.6867 / 0.6867	+0.0874 [+0.0677,+0.1060] / +0.0896 [+0.0723,+0.1044] / +0.0843 [+0.0673,+0.1012]	+0.0871 ± 0.0027	BEATS	450,828 / 49,787
engaged	gaze_off	2s	persistence	0.7741 / 0.7763 / 0.7710	0.6823 / 0.6823 / 0.6823	+0.0918 [+0.0738,+0.1093] / +0.0940 [+0.0777,+0.1081] / +0.0887 [+0.0730,+0.1043]	+0.0915 ± 0.0027	BEATS	450,828 / 49,787
engaged	gaze_off	3s	dwell_table	0.7396 / 0.7407 / 0.7347	0.6544 / 0.6544 / 0.6544	+0.0852 [+0.0607,+0.1092] / +0.0863 [+0.0686,+0.1046] / +0.0803 [+0.0600,+0.1004]	+0.0839 ± 0.0032	BEATS	450,748 / 49,999
engaged	gaze_off	3s	persistence	0.7396 / 0.7407 / 0.7347	0.6505 / 0.6505 / 0.6505	+0.0891 [+0.0660,+0.1118] / +0.0902 [+0.0733,+0.1071] / +0.0842 [+0.0649,+0.1031]	+0.0878 ± 0.0032	BEATS	450,748 / 49,999
engaged	gaze_off	5s	dwell_table	0.6986 / 0.7005 / 0.6916	0.6208 / 0.6208 / 0.6208	+0.0779 [+0.0514,+0.1052] / +0.0797 [+0.0595,+0.1011] / +0.0708 [+0.0475,+0.0959]	+0.0761 ± 0.0047	BEATS	450,632 / 50,514
engaged	gaze_off	5s	persistence	0.6986 / 0.7005 / 0.6916	0.6175 / 0.6175 / 0.6175	+0.0812 [+0.0555,+0.1075] / +0.0830 [+0.0630,+0.1035] / +0.0741 [+0.0512,+0.0984]	+0.0794 ± 0.0047	BEATS	450,632 / 50,514
manual	hands_on	1s	dwell_table	0.9567 / 0.9566 / 0.9570	0.9280 / 0.9280 / 0.9280	+0.0286 [+0.0165,+0.0409] / +0.0286 [+0.0167,+0.0408] / +0.0290 [+0.0165,+0.0418]	+0.0287 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	1s	final_closed_form	0.9567 / 0.9566 / 0.9570	0.9543 / 0.9538 / 0.9546	+0.0023 [+0.0017,+0.0033] / +0.0028 [+0.0018,+0.0065] / +0.0024 [+0.0012,+0.0035]	+0.0025 ± 0.0003	BEATS	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	1s	persistence	0.9567 / 0.9566 / 0.9570	0.8427 / 0.8427 / 0.8427	+0.1140 [+0.0863,+0.1438] / +0.1139 [+0.0860,+0.1440] / +0.1143 [+0.0864,+0.1447]	+0.1141 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,296 / 474,147
manual	hands_on	2s	dwell_table	0.9325 / 0.9325 / 0.9328	0.8960 / 0.8960 / 0.8960	+0.0365 [+0.0190,+0.0523] / +0.0365 [+0.0194,+0.0520] / +0.0368 [+0.0191,+0.0530]	+0.0366 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	2s	final_closed_form	0.9325 / 0.9325 / 0.9328	0.9296 / 0.9294 / 0.9299	+0.0028 [+0.0023,+0.0043] / +0.0031 [+0.0014,+0.0088] / +0.0029 [+0.0018,+0.0042]	+0.0029 ± 0.0001	BEATS	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	2s	persistence	0.9325 / 0.9325 / 0.9328	0.8009 / 0.8009 / 0.8009	+0.1316 [+0.0978,+0.1640] / +0.1316 [+0.0984,+0.1639] / +0.1320 [+0.0976,+0.1649]	+0.1317 ± 0.0002	BEATS	509,249 / 473,931
manual	hands_on	3s	dwell_table	0.9177 / 0.9181 / 0.9186	0.8753 / 0.8753 / 0.8753	+0.0424 [+0.0203,+0.0609] / +0.0427 [+0.0211,+0.0611] / +0.0432 [+0.0207,+0.0621]	+0.0428 ± 0.0004	BEATS	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	3s	final_closed_form	0.9177 / 0.9181 / 0.9186	0.9149 / 0.9150 / 0.9155	+0.0028 [+0.0023,+0.0043] / +0.0030 [+0.0013,+0.0093] / +0.0031 [+0.0022,+0.0053]	+0.0030 ± 0.0001	BEATS	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	3s	persistence	0.9177 / 0.9181 / 0.9186	0.7751 / 0.7751 / 0.7751	+0.1427 [+0.1039,+0.1768] / +0.1430 [+0.1046,+0.1769] / +0.1435 [+0.1041,+0.1776]	+0.1431 ± 0.0004	BEATS	508,044 / 472,517
manual	hands_on	5s	dwell_table	0.8984 / 0.8991 / 0.8994	0.8464 / 0.8464 / 0.8464	+0.0520 [+0.0250,+0.0740] / +0.0528 [+0.0252,+0.0743] / +0.0530 [+0.0250,+0.0747]	+0.0526 ± 0.0005	BEATS	503,161 / 467,401
manual	hands_on	5s	final_closed_form	0.8984 / 0.8991 / 0.8994	0.8960 / 0.8965 / 0.8967	+0.0024 [+0.0015,+0.0040] / +0.0027 [+0.0008,+0.0088] / +0.0027 [+0.0017,+0.0057]	+0.0026 ± 0.0002	BEATS	503,161 / 467,401
manual	hands_on	5s	persistence	0.8984 / 0.8991 / 0.8994	0.7395 / 0.7395 / 0.7395	+0.1589 [+0.1159,+0.1947] / +0.1597 [+0.1153,+0.1957] / +0.1599 [+0.1152,+0.1956]	+0.1595 ± 0.0005	BEATS	503,161 / 467,401
manual	head_turned	1s	dwell_table	0.9213 / 0.9212 / 0.9221	0.8704 / 0.8704 / 0.8704	+0.0508 [+0.0411,+0.0572] / +0.0508 [+0.0406,+0.0580] / +0.0517 [+0.0413,+0.0589]	+0.0511 ± 0.0005	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	1s	final_closed_form	0.9213 / 0.9212 / 0.9221	0.9155 / 0.9111 / 0.9136	+0.0058 [+0.0044,+0.0090] / +0.0102 [+0.0082,+0.0129] / +0.0086 [+0.0063,+0.0110]	+0.0082 ± 0.0022	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	1s	persistence	0.9213 / 0.9212 / 0.9221	0.7940 / 0.7940 / 0.7940	+0.1272 [+0.1052,+0.1353] / +0.1272 [+0.1050,+0.1349] / +0.1281 [+0.1048,+0.1364]	+0.1275 ± 0.0005	BEATS	509,444 / 58,292
manual	head_turned	2s	dwell_table	0.8848 / 0.8853 / 0.8863	0.8149 / 0.8149 / 0.8149	+0.0699 [+0.0502,+0.0823] / +0.0704 [+0.0515,+0.0835] / +0.0714 [+0.0504,+0.0840]	+0.0706 ± 0.0008	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	2s	final_closed_form	0.8848 / 0.8853 / 0.8863	0.8781 / 0.8733 / 0.8768	+0.0068 [+0.0051,+0.0106] / +0.0121 [+0.0100,+0.0152] / +0.0095 [+0.0069,+0.0121]	+0.0094 ± 0.0027	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	2s	persistence	0.8848 / 0.8853 / 0.8863	0.7277 / 0.7277 / 0.7277	+0.1571 [+0.1211,+0.1694] / +0.1576 [+0.1226,+0.1698] / +0.1586 [+0.1216,+0.1717]	+0.1578 ± 0.0008	BEATS	509,410 / 58,508
manual	head_turned	3s	dwell_table	0.8615 / 0.8618 / 0.8630	0.7767 / 0.7767 / 0.7767	+0.0849 [+0.0592,+0.1007] / +0.0852 [+0.0602,+0.1014] / +0.0863 [+0.0604,+0.1021]	+0.0855 ± 0.0008	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	3s	final_closed_form	0.8615 / 0.8618 / 0.8630	0.8542 / 0.8497 / 0.8544	+0.0073 [+0.0055,+0.0113] / +0.0122 [+0.0101,+0.0152] / +0.0086 [+0.0063,+0.0111]	+0.0094 ± 0.0025	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	3s	persistence	0.8615 / 0.8618 / 0.8630	0.6873 / 0.6873 / 0.6873	+0.1742 [+0.1292,+0.1912] / +0.1745 [+0.1301,+0.1921] / +0.1757 [+0.1310,+0.1929]	+0.1748 ± 0.0008	BEATS	508,207 / 58,727
manual	head_turned	5s	dwell_table	0.8283 / 0.8291 / 0.8299	0.7298 / 0.7298 / 0.7298	+0.0986 [+0.0669,+0.1172] / +0.0994 [+0.0691,+0.1195] / +0.1001 [+0.0695,+0.1192]	+0.0993 ± 0.0008	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	head_turned	5s	final_closed_form	0.8283 / 0.8291 / 0.8299	0.8200 / 0.8174 / 0.8232	+0.0083 [+0.0053,+0.0130] / +0.0118 [+0.0088,+0.0157] / +0.0066 [+0.0048,+0.0114]	+0.0089 ± 0.0026	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	head_turned	5s	persistence	0.8283 / 0.8291 / 0.8299	0.6414 / 0.6414 / 0.6414	+0.1869 [+0.1336,+0.2089] / +0.1877 [+0.1355,+0.2113] / +0.1885 [+0.1357,+0.2105]	+0.1877 ± 0.0008	BEATS	503,344 / 58,884
manual	gaze_off	1s	dwell_table	0.9064 / 0.9067 / 0.9074	0.7985 / 0.7985 / 0.7985	+0.1079 [+0.0782,+0.1213] / +0.1082 [+0.0781,+0.1227] / +0.1090 [+0.0776,+0.1230]	+0.1084 ± 0.0005	BEATS	507,279 / 69,400
manual	gaze_off	1s	persistence	0.9064 / 0.9067 / 0.9074	0.7943 / 0.7943 / 0.7943	+0.1121 [+0.0871,+0.1238] / +0.1124 [+0.0879,+0.1257] / +0.1131 [+0.0866,+0.1256]	+0.1125 ± 0.0005	BEATS	507,279 / 69,400
manual	gaze_off	2s	dwell_table	0.8745 / 0.8747 / 0.8771	0.7396 / 0.7396 / 0.7396	+0.1349 [+0.0940,+0.1530] / +0.1350 [+0.0950,+0.1544] / +0.1374 [+0.0953,+0.1562]	+0.1358 ± 0.0014	BEATS	507,086 / 69,529
manual	gaze_off	2s	persistence	0.8745 / 0.8747 / 0.8771	0.7358 / 0.7358 / 0.7358	+0.1387 [+0.1038,+0.1553] / +0.1388 [+0.1048,+0.1569] / +0.1412 [+0.1049,+0.1586]	+0.1396 ± 0.0014	BEATS	507,086 / 69,529
manual	gaze_off	3s	dwell_table	0.8551 / 0.8541 / 0.8576	0.7030 / 0.7030 / 0.7030	+0.1521 [+0.1016,+0.1752] / +0.1511 [+0.1034,+0.1747] / +0.1546 [+0.1037,+0.1775]	+0.1526 ± 0.0018	BEATS	505,823 / 69,775
manual	gaze_off	3s	persistence	0.8551 / 0.8541 / 0.8576	0.6994 / 0.6994 / 0.6994	+0.1557 [+0.1118,+0.1775] / +0.1548 [+0.1132,+0.1767] / +0.1582 [+0.1140,+0.1798]	+0.1562 ± 0.0018	BEATS	505,823 / 69,775
manual	gaze_off	5s	dwell_table	0.8295 / 0.8269 / 0.8303	0.6595 / 0.6595 / 0.6595	+0.1699 [+0.1130,+0.1976] / +0.1673 [+0.1132,+0.1961] / +0.1708 [+0.1126,+0.1986]	+0.1693 ± 0.0018	BEATS	500,784 / 69,917
manual	gaze_off	5s	persistence	0.8295 / 0.8269 / 0.8303	0.6557 / 0.6557 / 0.6557	+0.1737 [+0.1235,+0.1998] / +0.1711 [+0.1228,+0.1985] / +0.1746 [+0.1247,+0.2010]	+0.1731 ± 0.0018	BEATS	500,784 / 69,917

Verdict counts (cells = regime x state x horizon)

metric	baseline	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	INSUFFICIENT
auroc	dwell_table	24	0	0	0	0
auroc	final_closed_form	16	0	0	0	0
auroc	persistence	24	0	0	0	0
brier	dwell_table	18	4	2	0	0
brier	final_closed_form	16	0	0	0	0
brier	persistence	24	0	0	0	0

Calibration at 3 s — ECE (10 bins) of P(state = 1 at t + 3 s)

regime	state	FS	dwell table	FINAL closed form	n
engaged	hands_on	0.0077 ± 0.0028	0.0155 ± 0.0000	0.0047 ± 0.0009	450,159
engaged	head_turned	0.0057 ± 0.0028	0.0375 ± 0.0000	0.0097 ± 0.0024	450,435
engaged	gaze_off	0.0083 ± 0.0004	0.0355 ± 0.0000	n/a	450,748
manual	hands_on	0.0090 ± 0.0027	0.0118 ± 0.0000	0.0100 ± 0.0021	508,044
manual	head_turned	0.0115 ± 0.0008	0.0231 ± 0.0000	0.0136 ± 0.0004	508,207
manual	gaze_off	0.0180 ± 0.0011	0.0352 ± 0.0000	n/a	505,823

Segment classes at 3 s (true states): Brier of P(state at t + 3 s) per class

regime	state	class	share of rows	FS	persistence	dwell table	FINAL closed form	n
engaged	hands_on	static	0.861	0.0010 ± 0.0001	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0020 ± 0.0000	0.0015 ± 0.0003	386,829
engaged	hands_on	onset	0.047	0.3904 ± 0.0017	0.4589 ± 0.0000	0.3861 ± 0.0000	0.3911 ± 0.0016	20,978
engaged	hands_on	sustained	0.060	0.0597 ± 0.0108	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0665 ± 0.0000	0.0605 ± 0.0062	26,845
engaged	hands_on	recovery	0.033	0.3096 ± 0.0133	0.6512 ± 0.0000	0.3055 ± 0.0000	0.3330 ± 0.0030	14,631
engaged	head_turned	static	0.811	0.0049 ± 0.0005	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0089 ± 0.0000	0.0059 ± 0.0004	364,128
engaged	head_turned	onset	0.109	0.3908 ± 0.0033	0.4648 ± 0.0000	0.3749 ± 0.0000	0.3927 ± 0.0024	49,109
engaged	head_turned	sustained	0.020	0.3180 ± 0.0042	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.2791 ± 0.0000	0.4002 ± 0.0138	9,184
engaged	head_turned	recovery	0.060	0.1696 ± 0.0012	0.8334 ± 0.0000	0.1912 ± 0.0000	0.1644 ± 0.0010	26,823
engaged	gaze_off	static	0.743	0.0081 ± 0.0002	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0126 ± 0.0000	n/a	334,153
engaged	gaze_off	onset	0.148	0.3817 ± 0.0010	0.4659 ± 0.0000	0.3737 ± 0.0000	n/a	66,404
engaged	gaze_off	sustained	0.023	0.3636 ± 0.0169	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.2994 ± 0.0000	n/a	10,441
engaged	gaze_off	recovery	0.086	0.1856 ± 0.0019	0.7871 ± 0.0000	0.2009 ± 0.0000	n/a	38,590
manual	hands_on	static	0.854	0.0030 ± 0.0004	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0028 ± 0.0000	0.0033 ± 0.0002	432,619
manual	hands_on	onset	0.078	0.2992 ± 0.0028	0.3735 ± 0.0000	0.3126 ± 0.0000	0.3000 ± 0.0018	39,355
manual	hands_on	sustained	0.028	0.1339 ± 0.0030	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0967 ± 0.0000	0.1477 ± 0.0124	14,407
manual	hands_on	recovery	0.040	0.2507 ± 0.0035	0.7019 ± 0.0000	0.2808 ± 0.0000	0.2561 ± 0.0032	20,254
manual	head_turned	static	0.765	0.0091 ± 0.0003	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0090 ± 0.0000	0.0093 ± 0.0006	388,134
manual	head_turned	onset	0.120	0.3687 ± 0.0027	0.5310 ± 0.0000	0.4178 ± 0.0000	0.3750 ± 0.0035	61,096
manual	head_turned	sustained	0.030	0.2394 ± 0.0170	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.3116 ± 0.0000	0.2605 ± 0.0041	15,222
manual	head_turned	recovery	0.084	0.1942 ± 0.0034	0.7458 ± 0.0000	0.2143 ± 0.0000	0.1936 ± 0.0016	42,595
manual	gaze_off	static	0.730	0.0114 ± 0.0005	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.0126 ± 0.0000	n/a	365,984
manual	gaze_off	onset	0.138	0.3537 ± 0.0037	0.5155 ± 0.0000	0.4122 ± 0.0000	n/a	69,136
manual	gaze_off	sustained	0.036	0.2333 ± 0.0081	0.0000 ± 0.0000	0.3029 ± 0.0000	n/a	18,161
manual	gaze_off	recovery	0.096	0.2008 ± 0.0012	0.7194 ± 0.0000	0.2205 ± 0.0000	n/a	48,186

Recovery time (remaining dwell in the off-task state) and first-leave time — MAE (s) of E[min(T, 5.2 s)] and calibration of P(leave within 3 s)

Rows: anchors whose first-leave time is observed (event within 5 s, or the full 5 s observed without a leave -> target 5.2 s). Δ = FS − baseline MAE (lower better), device-cluster bootstrap.

regime	state	rows	n	event share	MAE FS	MAE dwell table	Δ vs table per seed [CI]	verdict	MAE FINAL closed form	Δ vs FINAL per seed [CI]	verdict	ECE3 FS / table / FINAL	observed P(leave ≤ 3 s)
engaged	hands_on	first_leave_all	449,350	0.108	0.3959 ± 0.0136	0.4907 ± 0.0000	-0.086 [-0.111,-0.053] / -0.088 [-0.111,-0.057] / -0.111 [-0.132,-0.081]	BEATS	0.4401 ± 0.0069	-0.036 [-0.059,-0.019] / -0.044 [-0.064,-0.026] / -0.053 [-0.071,-0.038]	BEATS	0.0051 ± 0.0027 / 0.0241 ± 0.0000 / 0.0141 ± 0.0026	0.080
engaged	hands_on	remaining_dwell_off	41,575	0.437	1.2013 ± 0.0401	1.3081 ± 0.0000	-0.126 [-0.184,-0.013] / -0.061 [-0.113,+0.017] / -0.133 [-0.214,+0.003]	INCONCLUSIVE	1.3266 ± 0.0206	-0.129 [-0.185,-0.046] / -0.102 [-0.174,-0.034] / -0.144 [-0.229,-0.072]	BEATS	0.0349 ± 0.0233 / 0.0614 ± 0.0000 / 0.0694 ± 0.0162	0.357
engaged	head_turned	first_leave_all	449,018	0.232	0.8168 ± 0.0067	0.9617 ± 0.0000	-0.140 [-0.167,-0.115] / -0.142 [-0.167,-0.119] / -0.153 [-0.178,-0.128]	BEATS	0.8526 ± 0.0117	-0.041 [-0.052,-0.028] / -0.035 [-0.050,-0.019] / -0.031 [-0.046,-0.013]	BEATS	0.0118 ± 0.0016 / 0.0489 ± 0.0000 / 0.0151 ± 0.0033	0.170
engaged	head_turned	remaining_dwell_off	36,096	0.832	1.1660 ± 0.0203	1.3417 ± 0.0000	-0.198 [-0.255,-0.138] / -0.159 [-0.199,-0.108] / -0.170 [-0.238,-0.086]	BEATS	1.3178 ± 0.0196	-0.164 [-0.193,-0.131] / -0.157 [-0.197,-0.113] / -0.134 [-0.175,-0.091]	BEATS	0.0300 ± 0.0041 / 0.0530 ± 0.0000 / 0.0319 ± 0.0096	0.746
engaged	gaze_off	first_leave_all	449,875	0.313	1.0509 ± 0.0192	1.2276 ± 0.0000	-0.190 [-0.236,-0.143] / -0.155 [-0.185,-0.118] / -0.185 [-0.219,-0.148]	BEATS	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0172 ± 0.0062 / 0.0536 ± 0.0000 / n/a	0.235
engaged	gaze_off	remaining_dwell_off	49,138	0.877	1.1520 ± 0.0159	1.2375 ± 0.0000	-0.103 [-0.167,-0.004] / -0.082 [-0.118,-0.021] / -0.072 [-0.130,+0.030]	BEATS	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0512 ± 0.0108 / 0.0312 ± 0.0000 / n/a	0.789
manual	hands_on	first_leave_all	502,975	0.159	0.5439 ± 0.0218	0.5918 ± 0.0000	-0.023 [-0.047,+0.053] / -0.056 [-0.083,+0.024] / -0.064 [-0.091,+0.026]	INCONCLUSIVE	0.5794 ± 0.0082	-0.020 [-0.057,-0.007] / -0.042 [-0.088,-0.027] / -0.045 [-0.069,-0.037]	BEATS	0.0104 ± 0.0058 / 0.0064 ± 0.0000 / 0.0260 ± 0.0031	0.120
manual	hands_on	remaining_dwell_off	34,770	0.676	1.3694 ± 0.0102	1.4324 ± 0.0000	-0.054 [-0.179,+0.177] / -0.074 [-0.192,+0.127] / -0.062 [-0.203,+0.178]	INCONCLUSIVE	1.4138 ± 0.0175	-0.032 [-0.100,+0.034] / -0.074 [-0.197,+0.013] / -0.027 [-0.073,+0.014]	INCONCLUSIVE	0.0461 ± 0.0065 / 0.0414 ± 0.0000 / 0.0977 ± 0.0144	0.590
manual	head_turned	first_leave_all	503,483	0.274	0.8480 ± 0.0073	1.0090 ± 0.0000	-0.167 [-0.181,-0.125] / -0.163 [-0.175,-0.135] / -0.153 [-0.167,-0.105]	BEATS	0.8641 ± 0.0067	-0.019 [-0.028,-0.006] / -0.026 [-0.043,-0.015] / -0.004 [-0.008,+0.013]	BEATS	0.0262 ± 0.0062 / 0.0366 ± 0.0000 / 0.0245 ± 0.0018	0.207
manual	head_turned	remaining_dwell_off	57,913	0.855	1.1679 ± 0.0215	1.3648 ± 0.0000	-0.201 [-0.248,-0.162] / -0.216 [-0.305,-0.154] / -0.174 [-0.208,-0.119]	BEATS	1.2688 ± 0.0101	-0.115 [-0.170,-0.082] / -0.120 [-0.201,-0.090] / -0.067 [-0.079,-0.047]	BEATS	0.0332 ± 0.0087 / 0.0126 ± 0.0000 / 0.0353 ± 0.0022	0.739
manual	gaze_off	first_leave_all	500,166	0.315	1.0033 ± 0.0146	1.2453 ± 0.0000	-0.230 [-0.267,-0.148] / -0.238 [-0.275,-0.154] / -0.258 [-0.308,-0.152]	BEATS	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0362 ± 0.0046 / 0.0579 ± 0.0000 / n/a	0.240
manual	gaze_off	remaining_dwell_off	66,998	0.850	1.2110 ± 0.0071	1.3422 ± 0.0000	-0.134 [-0.169,-0.096] / -0.136 [-0.207,-0.078] / -0.123 [-0.152,-0.075]	BEATS	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0439 ± 0.0146 / 0.0447 ± 0.0000 / n/a	0.734

Attribution arms (test split): what carries the gain — the trunk state, the dwell history, or both

Arms trained with the identical recipe / selection / caches: dwell = z_U + 20 dwell features + regime (the F2′ head); zonly = z_U + regime only (the detached head + occupancy BCE on the trunk's own information); featonly = dwell features + regime with z_U zeroed (the 8 s dwell / switch history alone). Baselines as above: persistence pi_k = z0, dwell table (TRAIN empirical P(s_{t+k} | z0, time-in-state bin)), FINAL closed form (the frozen model's own hazards through forward_marginal). Verdicts = kill_checks.beats over the 3 seeds (Brier lower better).

BRIER of P(state = 1 at t + k), 3-seed mean

regime	state	horizon	persistence	dwell table	FINAL closed form	dwell	zonly	featonly	dwell vs FINAL	zonly vs FINAL	featonly vs FINAL	dwell vs table	zonly vs table	featonly vs table
engaged	hands_on	1s	0.0270	0.0218	0.0223	0.0211	0.0222	0.0212	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	2s	0.0363	0.0289	0.0295	0.0282	0.0296	0.0282	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	3s	0.0431	0.0340	0.0345	0.0331	0.0347	0.0332	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	5s	0.0533	0.0408	0.0412	0.0398	0.0415	0.0396	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	1s	0.0711	0.0522	0.0507	0.0488	0.0503	0.0501	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	NOT_WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	2s	0.0909	0.0614	0.0614	0.0592	0.0610	0.0592	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	3s	0.1009	0.0656	0.0660	0.0636	0.0656	0.0633	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	5s	0.1124	0.0700	0.0709	0.0681	0.0703	0.0677	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	1s	0.0994	0.0729	nan	0.0699	0.0716	0.0703	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	2s	0.1243	0.0841	nan	0.0819	0.0839	0.0813	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	3s	0.1369	0.0892	nan	0.0871	0.0895	0.0861	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	5s	0.1505	0.0942	nan	0.0924	0.0955	0.0911	n/a	n/a	n/a	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
manual	hands_on	1s	0.0404	0.0305	0.0302	0.0293	0.0303	0.0296	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	INCONCLUSIVE	NOT_WORSE	BEATS
manual	hands_on	2s	0.0511	0.0371	0.0369	0.0360	0.0372	0.0362	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	INCONCLUSIVE
manual	hands_on	3s	0.0577	0.0411	0.0409	0.0400	0.0412	0.0401	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE
manual	hands_on	5s	0.0669	0.0463	0.0461	0.0451	0.0463	0.0454	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE	NOT_WORSE
manual	head_turned	1s	0.0833	0.0636	0.0574	0.0557	0.0569	0.0610	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	2s	0.1102	0.0776	0.0700	0.0685	0.0696	0.0745	BEATS	BEATS	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	3s	0.1268	0.0847	0.0765	0.0750	0.0761	0.0819	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	5s	0.1457	0.0918	0.0844	0.0828	0.0843	0.0895	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	1s	0.0967	0.0763	nan	0.0670	0.0684	0.0719	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	2s	0.1243	0.0919	nan	0.0795	0.0809	0.0864	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	3s	0.1418	0.0999	nan	0.0861	0.0878	0.0943	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	5s	0.1629	0.1080	nan	0.0942	0.0961	0.1025	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS

AUROC of P(state = 1 at t + k), 3-seed mean

regime	state	horizon	persistence	dwell table	FINAL closed form	dwell	zonly	featonly	dwell vs FINAL	zonly vs FINAL	featonly vs FINAL	dwell vs table	zonly vs table	featonly vs table
engaged	hands_on	1s	0.9201	0.9644	0.9766	0.9786	0.9771	0.9719	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	2s	0.8922	0.9426	0.9599	0.9624	0.9603	0.9541	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	3s	0.8719	0.9257	0.9470	0.9500	0.9475	0.9398	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	hands_on	5s	0.8416	0.9004	0.9267	0.9307	0.9273	0.9186	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	1s	0.7596	0.8321	0.8542	0.8750	0.8582	0.8716	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	2s	0.6931	0.7732	0.7821	0.8085	0.7837	0.8141	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	3s	0.6602	0.7406	0.7436	0.7729	0.7444	0.7831	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS
engaged	head_turned	5s	0.6234	0.7029	0.6913	0.7301	0.6943	0.7441	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	1s	0.7456	0.7500	nan	0.8376	0.8214	0.8354	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	2s	0.6823	0.6867	nan	0.7738	0.7534	0.7793	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	3s	0.6505	0.6544	nan	0.7383	0.7171	0.7480	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
engaged	gaze_off	5s	0.6175	0.6208	nan	0.6969	0.6637	0.7105	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	hands_on	1s	0.8427	0.9280	0.9543	0.9568	0.9544	0.9455	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	hands_on	2s	0.8009	0.8960	0.9297	0.9326	0.9294	0.9197	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	hands_on	3s	0.7751	0.8753	0.9151	0.9181	0.9146	0.9027	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	hands_on	5s	0.7395	0.8464	0.8964	0.8990	0.8947	0.8779	BEATS	NOT_WORSE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	1s	0.7940	0.8704	0.9134	0.9215	0.9157	0.9076	BEATS	BEATS	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	2s	0.7277	0.8149	0.8760	0.8855	0.8787	0.8607	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	3s	0.6873	0.7767	0.8528	0.8621	0.8553	0.8248	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	head_turned	5s	0.6414	0.7298	0.8202	0.8291	0.8229	0.7768	BEATS	INCONCLUSIVE	WORSE	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	1s	0.7943	0.7985	nan	0.9068	0.9008	0.8901	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	2s	0.7358	0.7396	nan	0.8754	0.8692	0.8452	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	3s	0.6994	0.7030	nan	0.8556	0.8484	0.8136	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS
manual	gaze_off	5s	0.6557	0.6595	nan	0.8289	0.8208	0.7734	n/a	n/a	n/a	BEATS	BEATS	BEATS

Verdict counts per arm (cells = regime x state x horizon; hands / head only for the FINAL closed form)

arm	metric	vs FINAL closed form: BEATS / NOT_WORSE / INCONCLUSIVE / WORSE	vs dwell table: BEATS / NOT_WORSE / INCONCLUSIVE / WORSE	vs persistence: BEATS / rest
dwell	brier	16 / 0 / 0 / 0	18 / 4 / 2 / 0	24 / 0
dwell	auroc	16 / 0 / 0 / 0	24 / 0 / 0 / 0	24 / 0
zonly	brier	1 / 5 / 10 / 0	10 / 14 / 0 / 0	24 / 0
zonly	auroc	1 / 9 / 6 / 0	21 / 0 / 3 / 0	24 / 0
featonly	brier	7 / 5 / 0 / 4	21 / 2 / 1 / 0	24 / 0
featonly	auroc	4 / 0 / 0 / 12	24 / 0 / 0 / 0	24 / 0

Reading: zonly reproduces the FINAL closed form (the head + occupancy loss add nothing on the trunk's own information); featonly beats the FINAL recursion on the hands chain and on engaged head_turned but is WORSE on manual head_turned (the trunk state carries the head chain in manual driving); dwell = both sources is best in every cell — the gain is complementary information (8 s dwell / switch history + gaze anchor state), not the loss or the head.