docs/showcase_archive.md

Forecast examples and diagnostics

The model announcement features the geographically registered moving-core Mangkhut (2018) forecast. Its 50-member arrays and replay/playback receipts are linked there. These are development illustrations, not representative or untouched-test evidence.

Additional films

These earlier 50-member films retain a fixed issue-relative regional pressure patch. When the centre leaves it, only the saved coarse basin field covers that position. They use 4 hPa isobars and 23-second playback with a held ending; do not confuse them with the current moving-core Mangkhut rendering. Their original model outputs remain preserved.

• Fung-wong (2025), 7 November 00 UTC · provenance
• Soudelor (2015), 5 August 00 UTC · provenance
• Meranti (2016), 10 September 00 UTC · provenance

Wind and structure

Four-storm wind comparison · audit index · experimental structure method

USA one-minute and JMA ten-minute winds are separate references. Native 1.1 RMW and quadrant R34/R50/R64 are scored against matching USA definitions. Trackformer 1.2 has an auxiliary maximum-wind scalar but no native radius head. Its pressure-derived radius candidate is not an official-equivalent prediction; masked/persistent components are not learned radius forecasts.

Storm	Exact-time comparisons	Data and assumptions
Fung-wong	Plot	Record
Soudelor	Plot	Record
Mangkhut	Plot	Record
Meranti	Plot	Record

Full evaluation

Daily protocol · all daily scores · intensity/radius protocol · native intensity results · matched pressure curves

Route uses 1,473 starts / 270 storms; the matched native pressure comparison uses 134 starts / 40 storms. JMA pressure MAE falls from 13.53 to 12.84 hPa, with paired uncertainty including zero. JMA curve similarity is 0.7074 / 0.7118 (1.1 / 1.2), while USA curve similarity is 0.7237 / 0.6637 on 131 eligible days—a regression. A centred shape score discards level and amplitude and must be read with physical hPa timelines, not used to conceal pressure errors.