AAMAS2027-Roles / analysis /SAMPLING_AUDIT.md
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<!-- Copied verbatim from analysis/out/SAMPLING_AUDIT.md in the project repo,
generated by analysis/scripts/audit_sampling.py. Regenerating it against
the released problems parquet reproduces this file byte-identically
(verified 2026-09-30). Shipped in v1.1.0 because the dataset card cites it
for the six excluded SciBench problem_uids and for the Omni-MATH
representativeness tests; a card that cites a file a consumer cannot open
is not a citation. -->
# Sampling and denominator audit
Generated by `analysis/scripts/audit_sampling.py`. Every figure below is
re-derived from the released problems parquet; the sample is re-drawn
through `runner.load_problems`, the same function the campaign used.
## 1. OmniMath2: 4,181 available -> 1,600 run
- full matched pool: **4181**
- scientific run: **1600** (38.3%)
- seed: **20270101**, drawn by `runner.load_problems(n=1600, seed=20270101)`
- manifest: `experiments/manifest_omnimath2_n1600.json`
**Procedure** (verbatim from `runner.py:load_problems`): filter to the
benchmark, require `problem_text` and `answer` non-null, sort by
`problem_uid` with a stable mergesort, shuffle the index with
`random.Random(seed)`, take the first n, re-sort. Deterministic and
independent of row order in the parquet.
**It is a uniform random sample of the whole pool — not a tier-specific,
difficulty-stratified, or otherwise purposive subset.**
## 2. Is difficulty/tier metadata available?
- `difficulty_tier`: non-null **0/4181**, distinct 0
- `question_type`: non-null **0/4181**, distinct 0
- `difficulty_score`: non-null **4181/4181**, distinct 27
- `subset`: non-null **4181/4181**, distinct 64
`difficulty_tier` and `question_type` are **entirely null** for this
benchmark, so no tier table is possible on those fields. `difficulty_score`
is fully populated and is used below as the difficulty axis.
## 3. Representativeness: full 4,181 vs selected 1,600
### 3a. difficulty_score
| statistic | full 4,181 | selected 1,600 | delta |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| mean | 4.9444 | 4.9524 | +0.0080 |
| std | 1.9061 | 1.9882 | +0.0821 |
| min | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0000 |
| 25th pct | 4.0000 | 4.0000 | +0.0000 |
| median | 5.0000 | 5.0000 | +0.0000 |
| 75th pct | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | +0.0000 |
| max | 9.5000 | 9.5000 | +0.0000 |
Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov: **D=0.0251, p=0.449**
(a large p means the selected sample is *not* distinguishable from the pool)
### 3b. difficulty_score, binned
| score | full 4,181 | share | selected 1,600 | share | delta |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1.0 | 116 | 0.028 | 49 | 0.031 | +0.003 |
| 1.5 | 194 | 0.046 | 84 | 0.052 | +0.006 |
| 2.0 | 151 | 0.036 | 60 | 0.037 | +0.001 |
| 2.25 | 4 | 0.001 | 3 | 0.002 | +0.001 |
| 2.5 | 168 | 0.040 | 74 | 0.046 | +0.006 |
| 3.0 | 20 | 0.005 | 5 | 0.003 | -0.002 |
| 3.5 | 189 | 0.045 | 68 | 0.043 | -0.003 |
| 3.75 | 3 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| 4.0 | 530 | 0.127 | 198 | 0.124 | -0.003 |
| 4.25 | 3 | 0.001 | 1 | 0.001 | -0.000 |
| 4.375 | 1 | 0.000 | 1 | 0.001 | +0.000 |
| 4.5 | 380 | 0.091 | 149 | 0.093 | +0.002 |
| 4.75 | 12 | 0.003 | 1 | 0.001 | -0.002 |
| 5.0 | 848 | 0.203 | 295 | 0.184 | -0.018 |
| 5.25 | 218 | 0.052 | 69 | 0.043 | -0.009 |
| 5.5 | 153 | 0.037 | 47 | 0.029 | -0.007 |
| 6.0 | 241 | 0.058 | 101 | 0.063 | +0.005 |
| 6.25 | 7 | 0.002 | 2 | 0.001 | -0.000 |
| 6.5 | 96 | 0.023 | 32 | 0.020 | -0.003 |
| 6.75 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| 7.0 | 357 | 0.085 | 167 | 0.104 | +0.019 |
| 7.5 | 70 | 0.017 | 21 | 0.013 | -0.004 |
| 8.0 | 244 | 0.058 | 98 | 0.061 | +0.003 |
| 8.25 | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| 8.5 | 13 | 0.003 | 6 | 0.004 | +0.001 |
| 9.0 | 146 | 0.035 | 62 | 0.039 | +0.004 |
| 9.5 | 15 | 0.004 | 7 | 0.004 | +0.001 |
### 3c. subset (source competition)
| subset | full | share | selected | share | delta |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| HMMT_2 | 1321 | 0.316 | 494 | 0.309 | -0.007 |
| HMMT_11 | 860 | 0.206 | 289 | 0.181 | -0.025 |
| fermat | 224 | 0.054 | 96 | 0.060 | +0.006 |
| pascal | 223 | 0.053 | 79 | 0.049 | -0.004 |
| cayley | 190 | 0.045 | 92 | 0.058 | +0.012 |
| imo_shortlist | 176 | 0.042 | 71 | 0.044 | +0.002 |
| usamo | 112 | 0.027 | 53 | 0.033 | +0.006 |
| putnam | 100 | 0.024 | 41 | 0.026 | +0.002 |
| china_team_selection_test | 96 | 0.023 | 41 | 0.026 | +0.003 |
| imo | 71 | 0.017 | 31 | 0.019 | +0.002 |
| imc | 66 | 0.016 | 30 | 0.019 | +0.003 |
| apmoapmo_sol | 57 | 0.014 | 26 | 0.016 | +0.003 |
| ToT | 54 | 0.013 | 17 | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| baltic_way | 45 | 0.011 | 19 | 0.012 | +0.001 |
| imo_longlists | 41 | 0.010 | 17 | 0.011 | +0.001 |
_(top 15 of 64 subsets)_
Chi-square on subset x selected: **chi2=58.3, dof=46, p=0.106**
## 4. SciBench denominators: 692 upstream -> 580 released -> 574 matched
- upstream SciBench (published): **692**
- present in the released problems table: **580**
- carrying the `text_only` slice, i.e. the matched scientific run: **574**
- **run in this campaign: 574 problems x 2 actors x 2 arms = 2,296 trajectories**
### Where the 692 - 580 = 112 go
**NOT RECOVERABLE FROM THIS RELEASE, and I will not guess.** The released
problems table contains only rows that survived the upstream build, so the
112 excluded items are absent from it entirely and carry no reason code
here. A first draft of this audit asserted they were figure/table/tool
items plus collisions; that was an inference presented as a measurement
and has been removed.
What the release *does* record, for the 580 rows that are present:
| collision_status | n |
|---|---:|
| unique | 574 |
| conflicting_source_id_disambiguated | 6 |
Note the 6 `conflicting_source_id_disambiguated` rows are **not** the same
6 rows that lack the text-only slice — they are disjoint sets, so the two
subtractions below are independent, not the same six items counted twice.
To establish the 112 one would have to diff the upstream SciBench release
against this table. That is tracked as a P2 item; it does not affect any
denominator this paper reports, because the paper's denominator is the 574
it actually ran.
### Where the 580 - 574 = 6 go
6 released rows lack the `text_only` slice and are therefore
outside the matched denominator:
| problem_uid | slices |
|---|---|
| `scibench:calculus:8.1.39` | ["full"] |
| `scibench:class:Problem 2.20` | ["full"] |
| `scibench:fund:Question 21.65` | ["full"] |
| `scibench:fund:Question 21.67` | ["full"] |
| `scibench:fund:Question 23.41` | ["full"] |
| `scibench:thermo:6.12` | ["full"] |
**`574 matched` is not `574 total benchmark`.** The upstream benchmark has
692 items; 580 reach the release; 574 carry the text-only slice this
project's protocol can run. All 574 were run — no sub-sampling.
- license: ['MIT']
- training policy: ['evaluation_only_recommended']