event_id string | split string | slug string | title string | body string | prompt string | belief_kind string | resolved_label string | domain string | domains list | tags list | market_flags list | start_date string | close_date string | forecast_dates list | crowd_probabilities list | options list | markets list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
147778 | train | will-trump-and-machado-share-the-nobel-peace-prize | Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) Public statements from both Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado announcing that they are sharing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize or that the Nobel prize has been ... | Forecast: Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | binary | YES | politics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"trump-machado",
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"maria-corina-machado",
"nobel-peace-prize",
"trump",
"venezuela"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-16 | [
"2026-01-07",
"2026-01-09",
"2026-01-14"
] | [
0.1175,
0.5614583333333333,
0.7087499999999999
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
74939 | train | will-the-maduro-regime-survive-a-us-military-engagement | Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident ... | Forecast: Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | binary | NO | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"politics",
"trump",
"venezuela",
"geopolitics",
"world"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-01 | [
"2025-11-17",
"2025-11-25",
"2025-11-30",
"2025-12-06",
"2025-12-14",
"2025-12-17",
"2025-12-29"
] | [
0.7777083333333333,
0.7075,
0.6597916666666666,
0.7985416666666667,
0.8510416666666667,
0.859,
0.9080217391304348
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
176979 | train | will-trump-denaturalize-any-citizen-by-june-30 | Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if any naturalized US citizen is denaturalized by the United States government by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Denaturalization refers to the legal process through which a naturalized citizen’s US citizenship is revoked by the federal govern... | Forecast: Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30? | binary | YES | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"immigration",
"trump",
"politics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-27 | [
"2026-01-21",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-01-25"
] | [
0.7722916666666667,
0.83875,
0.7704166666666666
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
168624 | train | next-country-us-strikes-918 | Next Country US Strikes | This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or miss... | Forecast: Next Country US Strikes | multi_neg_risk | Somalia | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"world",
"middle-east",
"trump"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-27 | [
"2026-01-17",
"2026-01-20",
"2026-01-23"
] | [
0.693832822615013,
0.6957568830744738,
0.7382103531588874
] | [
"Syria",
"Mexico",
"Iraq",
"Nigeria",
"Other",
"Somalia",
"Iran",
"Yemen",
"Cuba",
"Venezuela",
"None before 2027",
"Colombia"
] | [
{
"label": "Syria",
"question": "Will the US strike Syria next?"
},
{
"label": "Mexico",
"question": "Will the US strike Mexico next?"
},
{
"label": "Iraq",
"question": "Will the US strike Iraq next?"
},
{
"label": "Nigeria",
"question": "Will the US strike Nigeria next?"... |
59404 | train | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-dutch-government | Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? | The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coal... | Forecast: Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? | multi_neg_risk | VVD + CDA + D66 | politics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"crime_society"
] | [
"politics",
"world",
"elections",
"netherlands",
"global-elections",
"dutch-election"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2025-10-15",
"2025-11-04",
"2025-11-17",
"2025-11-25",
"2025-12-08",
"2025-12-31",
"2026-01-08",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.011145810898126211,
0.07795428922824639,
0.15746802602509272,
0.22380952380952385,
0.5964666061256502,
0.7084939684118894,
0.7220724033668384,
0.9300345952788905,
0.9738591781953336,
0.9779030002178056
] | [
"PVV + JA21",
"PVV + VVD + JA21",
"PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66",
"PVV + VVD",
"PVV + CDA",
"PVV + VVD + D66",
"PVV + CDA + JA21",
"PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21",
"PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66",
"PVV + VVD + CDA",
"PVV + CDA + D66",
"PVV + VVD + CDA + D66",
"VVD + JA21",
"VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66",
"V... | [
{
"label": "PVV + JA21",
"question": "Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?"
},
{
"label": "PVV + VVD + JA21",
"question": "Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?"
},
{
"label": "PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66",
"question": "Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + ... |
107569 | train | will-the-aave-token-alignment-proposal-pass | Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the AAVE token alignment proposal passes (https://governance.aave.com/t/arfc-aave-token-alignment-phase-1-ownership/). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source is the official AAVE DAO vote, available at https://snapshot.org/#/s:aavedao.eth once the vote opens.
If... | Forecast: Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? | binary | NO | crypto | [
"crypto",
"politics"
] | [
"crypto",
"governance",
"aave"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2025-12-26 | [
"2025-12-19",
"2025-12-21",
"2025-12-23"
] | [
0.32624999999999993,
0.715625,
0.935
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
100076 | train | paramount-acquires-warner-bros-discovery-by-june-30 | Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses will be, have been, or are being acquired by or merged with Paramount Global by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" ... | Forecast: Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | binary | YES | finance | [
"politics",
"finance",
"tech",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"politics",
"media",
"netflix",
"business",
"big-tech",
"tech",
"finance",
"acquisitions",
"warner-bros"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2025-12-12",
"2025-12-17",
"2026-01-01",
"2026-01-08",
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-02-04",
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-24"
] | [
0.6166666666666667,
0.2554,
0.21083333333333332,
0.22,
0.265,
0.19458333333333333,
0.14270833333333335,
0.4354166666666666,
0.45625
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
98230 | train | who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-828 | Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet? | This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before thi... | Forecast: Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet? | multi_neg_risk | Stephen Miran | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"trump-cabinet",
"trump-presidency",
"trump",
"politics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-04 | [
"2025-12-08",
"2025-12-19",
"2025-12-22",
"2026-01-02",
"2026-01-08",
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-01-28"
] | [
0.02189189548213977,
0.024189425060385412,
0.05283328770873255,
0.03762898064648608,
0.08371176118562326,
0.09881198952674979,
0.039112606006667244,
0.03241024021475239
] | [
"J.D. Vance",
"Scott Bessent",
"Pam Bondi",
"Brooke Rollins",
"Lori Chavez-DeRemer",
"Scott Turner",
"Chris Wright",
"Doug Collins",
"Lee Zeldin",
"Tulsi Gabbard",
"John Ratcliffe",
"Mike Waltz",
"Kelly Loeffler",
"None before 2027",
"Marco Rubio",
"Pete Hegseth",
"Doug Burgum",
"H... | [
{
"label": "J.D. Vance",
"question": "Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?"
},
{
"label": "Scott Bessent",
"question": "Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?"
},
{
"label": "Pam Bondi",
"question": "Will Pam Bondi be t... |
95127 | train | yoon-insurrection-case-prison-sentence | Yoon Suk Yeol Insurrection Case Prison Time? | This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will cou... | Forecast: Yoon Suk Yeol Insurrection Case Prison Time? | multi_neg_risk | 30+ Years | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"south-korea"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-19 | [
"2025-12-03",
"2025-12-11",
"2025-12-26",
"2026-01-01",
"2026-01-07",
"2026-01-21",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-02-03",
"2026-02-12"
] | [
0.7201767627048195,
0.8160624509450372,
0.7549375012380897,
0.821715703044817,
0.8965865731669588,
0.9203411389920585,
0.9394653180233691,
0.9210324294043197,
0.9210176964927045
] | [
"No Prison Time",
"5–10 Years",
"15–20 Years",
"30+ Years",
"<5 Years",
"10–15 Years",
"20–30 Years"
] | [
{
"label": "No Prison Time",
"question": "Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?"
},
{
"label": "5–10 Years",
"question": "Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?"
},
{
"label": "15–20 Years",
"question": "Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in... |
83803 | train | next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027 | Next leader out of power before 2027? | This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary remov... | Forecast: Next leader out of power before 2027? | multi_neg_risk | Maduro - Venezuela President | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"world",
"politics",
"geopolitics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-03 | [
"2025-11-22",
"2025-11-27",
"2025-12-03",
"2025-12-08",
"2025-12-19",
"2025-12-22",
"2026-01-01"
] | [
0.058007169153264856,
0.06175846351901466,
0.13682649200873293,
0.22341937897493455,
0.13212773408895542,
0.11930804437204252,
0.13349667609490695
] | [
"Erdoğan - Türkiye President",
"Xi - General Secretary of the CCP",
"Netanyahu - Israel PM",
"Newsom - California Governor",
"Starmer - UK PM",
"Zelenskyy - Ukraine President",
"Lula da Silva - Brazil President",
"Lecornu - France PM",
"Takaichi - Japan PM",
"None before 2027",
"Merz - German Ch... | [
{
"label": "Erdoğan - Türkiye President",
"question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?"
},
{
"label": "Xi - General Secretary of the CCP",
"question": "Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?"
},
{
"label": "Netanyahu - Israel PM",
"question"... |
86463 | train | where-will-it-snow-first | Where will it snow first? | This market will resolve according to the first listed city that records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS).
This market will use a daily timeframe. If two or more cities record a snowfall of at least 0.1 inches on the same day, they will be treated as tied, rega... | Forecast: Where will it snow first? | multi_neg_risk | Detroit | science_health_weather | [
"science_health_weather"
] | [
"weather",
"precipitation"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2025-11-28 | [
"2025-11-21",
"2025-11-24",
"2025-11-25"
] | [
0.2489894907033145,
0.31390225579176056,
0.3082066125810265
] | [
"Chicago",
"Detroit",
"New York City",
"St. Louis"
] | [
{
"label": "Chicago",
"question": "Will Chicago record the first snowfall?"
},
{
"label": "Detroit",
"question": "Will Detroit record the first snowfall?"
},
{
"label": "New York City",
"question": "Will New York City record the first snowfall?"
},
{
"label": "St. Louis",
... |
213216 | train | where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen | Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen? | This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an of... | Forecast: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen? | multi_neg_risk | Switzerland | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"finance"
] | [
"geopolitics",
"nuclear",
"witkoff",
"kushner",
"iran",
"trump",
"politics",
"khamenei",
"uranium",
"nuclear-deal",
"diplomacy-ceasefire"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-26 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.08036621052631494,
0.30968706461118006,
0.8908997119889953
] | [
"Oman",
"Qatar",
"Italy",
"Other - Europe",
"UAE",
"Iraq",
"Other",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Switzerland",
"Austria",
"Turkey",
"USA",
"Other - Middle East/North Africa",
"Iran",
"Egypt",
"Kazakhstan",
"No Meeting by April 30"
] | [
{
"label": "Oman",
"question": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?"
},
{
"label": "Qatar",
"question": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?"
},
{
"label": "Italy",
"question": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?"
},
{
"la... |
211873 | train | when-will-the-us-next-strike-iran-week | When will the US next strike Iran? (Week) | This market will resolve according to the first listed date range (ET) during which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 4, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus ... | Forecast: When will the US next strike Iran? (Week) | multi_neg_risk | February 22-28 | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"geopolitics",
"world",
"khamenei",
"middle-east",
"israel",
"politics",
"iran"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.08771897643411393,
0.19846968947247734,
0.19222581743869208
] | [
"February 15-21",
"February 22-28",
"March 1-7",
"March 8-14",
"March 15-21",
"March 22-28",
"March 29-April 4",
"No strike by April 4"
] | [
{
"label": "February 15-21",
"question": "Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)?"
},
{
"label": "February 22-28",
"question": "Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?"
},
{
"label": "March 1-7",
"question": "Will ... |
202829 | train | winter-games-2026-womens-ice-hockey | Winter Games 2026: Women's Ice Hockey | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent disqua... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Women's Ice Hockey | multi_neg_risk | United States of America | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"sports",
"olympics",
"hockey",
"winter-games"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-20 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-11",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.576970874010878,
0.7260675768086807,
0.8036348443701692
] | [
"United States of America",
"Sweden",
"France",
"Czechia",
"Switzerland",
"Germany",
"Canada",
"Finland",
"Italy",
"Japan"
] | [
{
"label": "United States of America",
"question": "Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "Sweden",
"question": "Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's... |
160507 | train | will-trump-ban-institutional-investor-single-family-home-purchases | Will Trump ban institutional investor single-family home purchases? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that restricts, limits, or bans the purchasing of single-family homes by institutional investors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Institutional investors ... | Forecast: Will Trump ban institutional investor single-family home purchases? | binary | YES | finance | [
"politics",
"finance"
] | [
"economy",
"trump",
"real-estate",
"finance",
"politics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-21 | [
"2026-01-13",
"2026-01-15",
"2026-01-19"
] | [
0.4171739130434783,
0.33749999999999997,
0.3452173913043478
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
152059 | train | will-the-us-embassy-in-venezuela-reopen-by-march-31 | Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? | The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official an... | Forecast: Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? | binary | YES | politics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"trump",
"politics",
"venezuela"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-25 | [
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-21",
"2026-01-27",
"2026-01-28",
"2026-02-04",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.7802083333333334,
0.6415217391304349,
0.57625,
0.6945833333333334,
0.688125,
0.535625,
0.3618181818181818
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
118129 | train | nothing-ever-happens-israel-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition | This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Israel strikes Iran
- Israel withdraws from Gaza
- Syria strikes Israel
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled
- Israel x Turkey military ... | Forecast: Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition | binary | NO | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"lebanon",
"israel",
"middle-east",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"world"
] | [
"parlays"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2025-12-29",
"2026-01-05",
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-01-26",
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.30195652173913046,
0.44062500000000004,
0.6795833333333334,
0.6179166666666667,
0.6939583333333332,
0.52,
0.379375,
0.68875
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
83916 | train | turnout-in-chile-presidential-election-second-round | Turnout in Chile Presidential Election Second Round | A second-round presidential election is scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the second-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votación” divided by “Total inscritos.”
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to... | Forecast: Turnout in Chile Presidential Election Second Round | multi_neg_risk | 84-86% | politics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"crime_society"
] | [
"global-elections",
"chile",
"geopolitics",
"elections",
"politics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2025-12-17 | [
"2025-11-19",
"2025-11-26",
"2025-11-29",
"2025-12-04",
"2025-12-15"
] | [
0.5972561860156671,
0.5932823682498374,
0.5766576657665766,
0.44583401006983925,
0.9972949352865287
] | [
"86-88%",
"<82%",
"88-90%",
"82-84%",
"90%+",
"84-86%"
] | [
{
"label": "86-88%",
"question": "Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?"
},
{
"label": "<82%",
"question": "Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%?"
},
{
"label": "88-90%",
... |
89418 | train | zelenskyy-wears-a-suit-and-tie-during-next-trump-meeting | Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is photographed or videotaped wearing a Western-style suit and tie in the physical presence of Trump at any point during their next in-person meeting period between November 24, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
... | Forecast: Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | binary | NO | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"ukraine",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"trump",
"world",
"celebrities",
"trump-zelenskyy"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2025-12-29 | [
"2025-11-26",
"2025-11-29",
"2025-12-08",
"2025-12-12",
"2025-12-21",
"2025-12-27"
] | [
0.895,
0.874375,
0.895,
0.895,
0.8954166666666666,
0.9229166666666666
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
145931 | train | nothing-ever-happens-us-strike-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Another US strike on Venezuela
- US strikes Iran
- US strike on Colombia
- US strike on Mexico
- US strike on Cuba
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
If no qualifying strike ... | Forecast: Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | binary | NO | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"politics",
"military-action",
"world",
"trump",
"geopolitics"
] | [
"parlays"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-01-11",
"2026-01-15",
"2026-01-23",
"2026-02-02",
"2026-02-09",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.7064583333333334,
0.6599999999999999,
0.5927083333333334,
0.4225,
0.42208333333333337,
0.52875,
0.5980434782608697
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
203669 | train | grok-4pt20-released-on-655 | Grok 4.20 released on...? | This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public.
This market will resolve to "Released before February 15" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No rele... | Forecast: Grok 4.20 released on...? | multi_neg_risk | February 17 | tech | [
"tech"
] | [
"elon-musk",
"tech",
"grok",
"big-tech",
"ai"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-17 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-14"
] | [
0.016238132044705443,
0.02789141158106171,
0.06782734087520939
] | [
"Released before February 15",
"March 1",
"March 5",
"March 9",
"March 13",
"March 19",
"March 20",
"March 23",
"March 28",
"March 29",
"No release by March 31",
"March 6",
"March 8",
"March 10",
"March 11",
"March 17",
"March 25",
"March 26",
"February 17",
"February 19",
"F... | [
{
"label": "Released before February 15",
"question": "Will Grok 4.20 be released before February 15, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "March 1",
"question": "Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 1, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "March 5",
"question": "Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 5, 2026?"
},
... |
42238 | train | will-apples-iphone-17-pro-cost-more-than-1000-when-it-launches | Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the iPhone 17 Pro launches at a price greater than $1000.00. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the iPhone 17 Pro as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail p... | Forecast: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | binary | YES | tech | [
"tech",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"tech",
"big-tech",
"apple",
"pop-culture"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2025-09-13 | [
"2025-09-06",
"2025-09-08",
"2025-09-10"
] | [
0.9135416666666667,
0.7058333333333334,
0.9985833333333334
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
209779 | train | epl-lee-mac-2026-02-28 | Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Saturday, February 28, 2026 between Leeds United FC and Manchester City FC. | Forecast: Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC | multi_neg_risk | Manchester City FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.5851276317172702,
0.6306903184441119,
0.6162056196906992
] | [
"Leeds United FC",
"Draw (Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC)",
"Manchester City FC"
] | [
{
"label": "Leeds United FC",
"question": "Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC)",
"question": "Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Manchester City FC",
"question": "Will Manchester... |
209897 | train | lal-bar-vil-2026-02-28 | FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF | This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Saturday, February 28, 2026 between FC Barcelona and Villarreal CF. | Forecast: FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF | multi_neg_risk | FC Barcelona | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"la-liga",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.7360088332457726,
0.758132006947734,
0.7489852980968702
] | [
"FC Barcelona",
"Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF)",
"Villarreal CF"
] | [
{
"label": "FC Barcelona",
"question": "Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF)",
"question": "Will FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Villarreal CF",
"question": "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-28?"
}... |
209763 | train | epl-new-eve-2026-02-28 | Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Saturday, February 28, 2026 between Newcastle United FC and Everton FC. | Forecast: Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC | multi_neg_risk | Everton FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.2240977658965056,
0.21163891474357488,
0.20298879202988787
] | [
"Newcastle United FC",
"Draw (Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC)",
"Everton FC"
] | [
{
"label": "Newcastle United FC",
"question": "Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC)",
"question": "Will Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Everton FC",
"question": "Will Everton FC win on ... |
209753 | train | epl-liv-wes-2026-02-28 | Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Saturday, February 28, 2026 between Liverpool FC and West Ham United FC. | Forecast: Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC | multi_neg_risk | Liverpool FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.6609359797980534,
0.715576305099133,
0.7089048552144567
] | [
"West Ham United FC",
"Liverpool FC",
"Draw (Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC)"
] | [
{
"label": "West Ham United FC",
"question": "Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-28?"
},
{
"label": "Liverpool FC",
"question": "Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC)",
"question": "Will Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC... |
211811 | train | us-seizes-an-iran-linked-oil-tanker-by-feb-28 | US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an Iran-linked oil tanker between market creation and February 28, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker” refers to the seizure of any oil ship which is described by a consensus of credible sources a... | Forecast: US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28? | binary | YES | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"finance"
] | [
"politics",
"iran",
"ship",
"oil",
"oil-ship",
"geopolitics",
"hormuz"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-24 | [
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-21"
] | [
0.6489583333333333,
0.45772727272727276,
0.36562500000000003
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
168081 | train | us-bank-failure-by-february-28 | US bank failure by February 28? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market'... | Forecast: US bank failure by February 28? | binary | YES | finance | [
"finance"
] | [
"business",
"finance",
"economy"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-31 | [
"2026-01-16",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-01-23",
"2026-01-28"
] | [
0.2366666666666667,
0.17065217391304346,
0.1640909090909091,
0.16958333333333334
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
197912 | train | will-russia-enter-kurylivka-by-february-28 | Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kurylivka, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.660160° N, 37.698462° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Kurylivka is shaded under a below specified layer ... | Forecast: Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28? | binary | YES | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"ukraine-map",
"ukraine",
"politics",
"geopolitics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-11 | [
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-09"
] | [
0.30604166666666666,
0.3070833333333333,
0.666625
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
205284 | train | will-russia-capture-zaliznychne-by-february-28 | Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Zaliznychne railroad station located at 47.64802917028457° N, 36.165842995748726° E, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train stat... | Forecast: Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? | binary | YES | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"ukraine",
"ukraine-map"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.15625,
0.0985,
0.24285416666666668
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
168115 | train | israel-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs... | Forecast: Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | binary | YES | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics"
] | [
"iran",
"middle-east",
"israel",
"politics",
"israel-strike-iran",
"gaza",
"geopolitics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-01-23",
"2026-01-27",
"2026-02-02",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.39770833333333333,
0.3610416666666667,
0.24958333333333335,
0.13749999999999998,
0.24416666666666667,
0.17708333333333334
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
208549 | train | epl-wol-ast-2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Friday, February 27, 2026 between Wolverhampton Wanderers FC and Aston Villa FC. | Forecast: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC | multi_neg_risk | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"games",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.23686354378818736,
0.22587397948503246,
0.23471729605674943,
0.2293577981651376
] | [
"Draw (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC)",
"Wolverhampton Wanderers FC",
"Aston Villa FC"
] | [
{
"label": "Draw (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC)",
"question": "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Wolverhampton Wanderers FC",
"question": "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27?"
},
{
"label": "Aston Villa FC",
... |
179830 | train | 3rd-largest-company-end-of-february | 3rd largest company end of February? | This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | Forecast: 3rd largest company end of February? | multi_neg_risk | Alphabet | finance | [
"finance",
"tech"
] | [
"big-tech",
"economy",
"finance",
"business",
"tech"
] | [
"rewards-20-4pt5-50"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-01-22",
"2026-01-28",
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.13848283642873382,
0.0850385880697689,
0.5028708031845639,
0.6284117066754358,
0.8254811442062439,
0.9904631017824422
] | [
"NVIDIA",
"Microsoft",
"Apple",
"Alphabet",
"Tesla",
"Saudi Aramco",
"Amazon",
"Oracle"
] | [
{
"label": "NVIDIA",
"question": "Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?"
},
{
"label": "Microsoft",
"question": "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?"
},
{
"label": "Apple",
"question": "W... |
190364 | train | which-company-has-the-1-ai-model-end-of-february-style-control-on | Which company has the #1 AI model end of February? (Style Control On) | This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/lead... | Forecast: Which company has the #1 AI model end of February? (Style Control On) | multi_neg_risk | Anthropic | tech | [
"tech"
] | [
"claude-5",
"ai",
"big-tech",
"tech",
"openai"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-01-28",
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-11",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.052867024728347166,
0.0628476889670148,
0.7954693423865967,
0.7436743248594047,
0.6827040859943976,
0.9370179012588701
] | [
"Google",
"Z.ai",
"xAI",
"Anthropic",
"Baidu",
"OpenAI",
"Moonshot",
"DeepSeek",
"Meituan",
"Alibaba",
"Mistral"
] | [
{
"label": "Google",
"question": "Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?"
},
{
"label": "Z.ai",
"question": "Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?"
},
{
"label": "xAI",
"question": "Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026... |
206770 | train | the-bondi-parlay-feb-27 | The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27) | This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met on February 27, 2026:
- Epstein Data Set 13 not released
- Dow Jones (DJI) closing price at least 50000
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1. Epstein Data Set 13 not released
This market will resolve to "No" if Data Set 13 of th... | Forecast: The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27) | binary | NO | finance | [
"politics",
"finance"
] | [
"politics",
"dji",
"epstein",
"indicies",
"finance"
] | [
"parlays"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
null,
0.6835714285714286,
0.7897916666666667,
0.9707608695652173
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
219430 | train | bitcoin-price-on-february-27 | Bitcoin price on February 27? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Bitcoin price on February 27? | multi_neg_risk | 64,000-66,000 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"bitcoin",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-02-21",
"2026-02-23",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.13513452812068497,
0.19386853946759747,
0.22132715219097668
] | [
"62,000-64,000",
"64,000-66,000",
"66,000-68,000",
"72,000-74,000",
"74,000-76,000",
">76,000",
"<58,000",
"58,000-60,000",
"60,000-62,000",
"68,000-70,000",
"70,000-72,000"
] | [
{
"label": "62,000-64,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 27?"
},
{
"label": "64,000-66,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 27?"
},
{
"label": "66,000-68,000",
"question": "Will th... |
219063 | train | trump-approval-rating-on-february-27 | Trump approval rating on February 27? | This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 27, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution... | Forecast: Trump approval rating on February 27? | multi_neg_risk | 42.0–42.4 | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"trump",
"politics",
"approval",
"approvals"
] | [
"rewards-20-4pt5-50"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-23",
"2026-02-26"
] | [
0.18964941569282137,
0.07233461130597928,
0.16133843306420792
] | [
"<40.5",
"40.5–40.9",
"41.0–41.4",
"41.5–41.9",
"42.0–42.4",
"42.5+"
] | [
{
"label": "<40.5",
"question": "Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 27, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "40.5–40.9",
"question": "Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 27, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "41.0–41.4",
"question": "Will Trump’s approval ra... |
212453 | train | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-february-20-february-27 | Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 20 - February 27, 2026? | This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between February 20, 12:00 PM ET and February 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - ho... | Forecast: Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 20 - February 27, 2026? | multi_neg_risk | 120-139 | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"politics",
"trump"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.1597788012377253,
0.25299050081364044,
0.28276360519510707
] | [
"<20",
"20-39",
"40-59",
"60-79",
"80-99",
"100-119",
"120-139",
"140-159",
"160-179",
"180-199",
"200+"
] | [
{
"label": "<20",
"question": "Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "20-39",
"question": "Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "40-59",
"question": "Will D... |
217220 | train | solana-price-on-february-26 | Solana price on February 26? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Solana price on February 26? | multi_neg_risk | 80-90 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"solana",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-26 | [
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-21",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.40446529687752786,
0.4580785994878625,
0.3861194671250537
] | [
"<40",
"40-50",
"50-60",
"60-70",
"70-80",
"80-90",
"90-100",
"100-110",
"110-120",
"120-130",
">130"
] | [
{
"label": "<40",
"question": "Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 26?"
},
{
"label": "40-50",
"question": "Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 26?"
},
{
"label": "50-60",
"question": "Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on Februa... |
204455 | train | nvda-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-02-25-2026-1pt52 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | As of market creation, NVIDIA is estimated to release earnings on February 25, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for NVIDIA’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.52 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NVIDIA reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.52 for the relevant quarter in its next q... | Forecast: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | binary | YES | finance | [
"finance"
] | [
"earnings",
"equities",
"nvda",
"finance"
] | [
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-26 | [
"2026-02-11",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-24"
] | [
0.8754166666666667,
0.9172916666666667,
0.9197916666666667,
0.9313958333333333
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
219339 | train | number-of-tsa-passengers-february-26 | Number of TSA Passengers February 26? | This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on February 26, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the lis... | Forecast: Number of TSA Passengers February 26? | multi_neg_risk | 2.6M-2.8M | geopolitics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"finance",
"pop_culture",
"crime_society"
] | [
"tsa",
"economy",
"world",
"politics",
"pop-culture"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-23",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.1658653846153846,
0.31388265469701826,
0.42769395563833223
] | [
"<2.0M",
"2.0M-2.2M",
"2.2M-2.4M",
"2.4M-2.6M",
"2.6M-2.8M",
">2.8M"
] | [
{
"label": "<2.0M",
"question": "Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be less than 2,000,000?"
},
{
"label": "2.0M-2.2M",
"question": "Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?"
},
{
"label": "2.2M-2.4M",
"question"... |
217201 | train | bitcoin-price-on-february-26 | Bitcoin price on February 26? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Bitcoin price on February 26? | multi_neg_risk | 66,000-68,000 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"bitcoin",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new",
"weekly"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-26 | [
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-21",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.1967933185186981,
0.20923426336181464,
0.20102723866458977
] | [
"<58,000",
"58,000-60,000",
"60,000-62,000",
"62,000-64,000",
"64,000-66,000",
"66,000-68,000",
"68,000-70,000",
"70,000-72,000",
"72,000-74,000",
"74,000-76,000",
">76,000"
] | [
{
"label": "<58,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 26?"
},
{
"label": "58,000-60,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 26?"
},
{
"label": "60,000-62,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitco... |
214334 | train | xrp-price-on-february-25 | XRP price on February 25? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: XRP price on February 25? | multi_neg_risk | 1.40-1.50 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"xrp",
"ripple",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-25 | [
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.22612795058243976,
0.2592052566902463,
0.16300327591672828
] | [
"<1.00",
"1.00-1.10",
"1.10-1.20",
"1.20-1.30",
"1.30-1.40",
"1.40-1.50",
"1.50-1.60",
"1.60-1.70",
"1.70-1.80",
"1.80-1.90",
">1.90"
] | [
{
"label": "<1.00",
"question": "Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on February 25?"
},
{
"label": "1.00-1.10",
"question": "Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 25?"
},
{
"label": "1.10-1.20",
"question": "Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.2... |
203679 | train | hims-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-02-23-2026-0pt05 | Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? | As of market creation, Hims & Hers Health is estimated to release earnings on February 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hims & Hers Health's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hims & Hers Health reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.05 for the re... | Forecast: Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? | binary | YES | finance | [
"finance"
] | [
"earnings",
"hims",
"finance",
"equities"
] | [
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2026-02-11",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-21"
] | [
0.3625,
0.351875,
0.33520833333333333,
0.5158333333333334
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
208542 | train | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-february-17-february-24 | Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 17 - February 24, 2026? | This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between February 17, 12:00 PM ET and February 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - ho... | Forecast: Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 17 - February 24, 2026? | multi_neg_risk | 120-139 | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"politics",
"trump"
] | [
"tweets-markets"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-25 | [
"2026-02-15",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.1917099445913856,
0.18622324547875158,
0.3163031636587778
] | [
"<20",
"60-79",
"20-39",
"40-59",
"80-99",
"100-119",
"120-139",
"140-159",
"160-179",
"180-199",
"200+"
] | [
{
"label": "<20",
"question": "Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "60-79",
"question": "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?"
},
{
"label": "20-39",
"question": "Will D... |
213284 | train | how-many-viewers-will-the-2026-state-of-the-union-address-have | State of the Union # of viewers? | This market will resolve according to the number of viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports the 2026 State of the Union address as having.
If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported number o... | Forecast: State of the Union # of viewers? | multi_neg_risk | <35M | politics | [
"politics",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"trump",
"politics",
"sotu",
"state-of-union",
"state-of-the-union",
"views",
"rating"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-24"
] | [
0.23582442767439904,
0.34761960653310336,
0.5392364919862342
] | [
"41M - 43M",
"35M - 37M",
"37M - 39M",
"39M - 41M",
"<35M",
"43M - 45M",
"45M+"
] | [
{
"label": "41M - 43M",
"question": "Will the 2026 State of the Union have between 41M and 43M viewers?"
},
{
"label": "35M - 37M",
"question": "Will the 2026 State of the Union have between 35M and 37M viewers?"
},
{
"label": "37M - 39M",
"question": "Will the 2026 State of the Unio... |
213084 | train | how-long-will-the-state-of-the-union-address-be | How long will the State of the Union address be? | Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's 2026 State of the Union address.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the State... | Forecast: How long will the State of the Union address be? | multi_neg_risk | 100+ minutes | politics | [
"politics"
] | [
"trump",
"politics",
"state-of-the-union",
"sotu",
"state-of-union"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-25 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-23"
] | [
0.21542784897756836,
0.2667799012801979,
0.3792814294007611
] | [
"60-70 minutes",
"90-100 minutes",
"<60 minutes",
"70-80 minutes",
"80-90 minutes",
"100+ minutes"
] | [
{
"label": "60-70 minutes",
"question": "Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 60 and 70 minutes long?"
},
{
"label": "90-100 minutes",
"question": "Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes long?"
},
{
"label": "<60 minutes",
"question": "W... |
212949 | train | i-can-only-imagine-2-opening-weekend-box-office | "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office | This market will resolve according to how much "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market on... | Forecast: "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office | multi_neg_risk | <10m | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"box-office",
"movies",
"pop-culture"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-24 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-21"
] | [
0.40897651573408517,
0.8295132418200534,
0.940448488554011
] | [
"14-16m",
">16m",
"<10m",
"12-14m",
"10-12m"
] | [
{
"label": "14-16m",
"question": "Will \"I Can Only Imagine 2\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?"
},
{
"label": ">16m",
"question": "Will \"I Can Only Imagine 2\" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?"
},
{
"label": "<10m",
"question": "Will \"I Can Only I... |
212951 | train | how-to-make-a-killing-opening-weekend-box-office | "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office | This market will resolve according to how much "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market o... | Forecast: "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office | multi_neg_risk | <3.5m | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"movies",
"pop-culture",
"box-office"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-22",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.7338629909702945,
0.2569182324359268,
0.7565225673078898
] | [
"<3.5m",
"3.5-5m",
">6.5m",
"5-6.5m"
] | [
{
"label": "<3.5m",
"question": "Will \"How to Make a Killing\" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?"
},
{
"label": "3.5-5m",
"question": "Will \"How to Make a Killing\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?"
},
{
"label": ">6.5m",
"question": "Will \"How to Mak... |
217576 | train | how-to-make-a-killing-opening-weekend-box-office-lower-strikes | "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes) | This market will resolve according to how much "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market o... | Forecast: "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes) | multi_neg_risk | 3-3.5m | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"box-office",
"movies",
"pop-culture"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-28 | [
"2026-02-20",
"2026-02-22",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.2597894502311592,
0.18341945066209234,
0.7550180377313855
] | [
"<2m",
"2-2.5m",
"2.5-3m",
"3-3.5m",
">3.5m"
] | [
{
"label": "<2m",
"question": "Will \"How to Make a Killing\" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?"
},
{
"label": "2-2.5m",
"question": "Will \"How to Make a Killing\" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?"
},
{
"label": "2.5-3m",
"question": "Will \"How to Make a... |
203949 | train | epl-eve-mun-2026-02-23 | Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Monday, February 23, 2026 between Everton FC and Manchester United FC. | Forecast: Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC | multi_neg_risk | Manchester United FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"games",
"soccer",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"sports"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-24 | [
"2026-02-11",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.5002417640565271,
0.5002080732417812,
0.49479383590170756,
0.49221507162134115
] | [
"Manchester United FC",
"Everton FC",
"Draw (Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC)"
] | [
{
"label": "Manchester United FC",
"question": "Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?"
},
{
"label": "Everton FC",
"question": "Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-23?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC)",
"question": "Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC... |
207964 | train | who-will-win-the-traitors-us-season-4 | Who will win The Traitors US: Season 4? | This market will resolve to the contestant who wins The Traitors US: Season 4. The finale is set to air on February 26, 2026.
If The Traitors US: Season 4 concludes without a winner being declared, or if The Traitors US: Season 4 has otherwise not concluded by July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Oth... | Forecast: Who will win The Traitors US: Season 4? | multi_neg_risk | Rob Rausch | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"pop-culture",
"reality-tv"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
0.130609511051574,
0.8253375912855185,
0.847149973575169,
0.7869784516587545
] | [
"Johnny Weir",
"Rob Rausch",
"Candiace Dillard Bassett",
"Eric Nam",
"Tara Lipinski",
"Maura Higgins",
"Kristen Kish",
"Mark Ballas"
] | [
{
"label": "Johnny Weir",
"question": "Will Johnny Weir win The Traitors US: Season 4?"
},
{
"label": "Rob Rausch",
"question": "Will Rob Rausch win The Traitors US: Season 4?"
},
{
"label": "Candiace Dillard Bassett",
"question": "Will Candiace Dillard Bassett win The Traitors US: S... |
211889 | train | ethereum-price-on-february-23 | Ethereum price on February 23? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Ethereum price on February 23? | multi_neg_risk | 1,800-1,900 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"ethereum",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.1772953659592897,
0.2195941793023442,
0.20158063309922183
] | [
"<1,500",
"1,500-1,600",
"1,600-1,700",
"1,700-1,800",
"1,800-1,900",
"1,900-2,000",
"2,000-2,100",
"2,100-2,200",
"2,300-2,400",
">2,400",
"2,200-2,300"
] | [
{
"label": "<1,500",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on February 23?"
},
{
"label": "1,500-1,600",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on February 23?"
},
{
"label": "1,600-1,700",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum be... |
211877 | train | bitcoin-price-on-february-23 | Bitcoin price on February 23? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Bitcoin price on February 23? | multi_neg_risk | 64,000-66,000 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"bitcoin",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.13882558034163875,
0.16952171167531005,
0.1707179228762573
] | [
"<58,000",
"58,000-60,000",
"60,000-62,000",
"62,000-64,000",
"64,000-66,000",
"66,000-68,000",
"68,000-70,000",
"70,000-72,000",
"72,000-74,000",
"74,000-76,000",
">76,000"
] | [
{
"label": "<58,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 23?"
},
{
"label": "58,000-60,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 23?"
},
{
"label": "60,000-62,000",
"question": "Will the price of Bitco... |
106879 | train | who-will-win-the-beast-games-season-2 | Who will win the Beast Games: Season 2? | This market will resolve according to the bracket containing the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.
The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins... | Forecast: Who will win the Beast Games: Season 2? | multi_neg_risk | 151 - 175 | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"youtube",
"movies",
"mrbeast",
"pop-culture",
"tv"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-25 | [
"2025-12-22",
"2026-01-01",
"2026-01-08",
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-22",
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.27381174277726006,
0.16647640791476406,
0.8392262895174709,
0.6516602159299246,
0.82423569563519,
0.8844970713412835,
0.8734174662449792,
0.9114983874968989
] | [
"101 - 125",
"126 - 150",
"1 - 25",
"26 - 50",
"76 - 100",
"151 - 175",
"51 - 75",
"176 - 200"
] | [
{
"label": "101 - 125",
"question": "Will a contestant numbered 101 - 125 win Beast Games: Season 2?"
},
{
"label": "126 - 150",
"question": "Will a contestant numbered 126 - 150 win Beast Games: Season 2?"
},
{
"label": "1 - 25",
"question": "Will a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Be... |
189839 | train | gorton-and-denton-by-election-winner | Gorton and Denton by-election Winner | The Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election is currently scheduled for February 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester.
If the election results are not clear by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will r... | Forecast: Gorton and Denton by-election Winner | multi_neg_risk | Hannah Spencer - Green Party | politics | [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"crime_society"
] | [
"uk",
"politics",
"global-elections",
"elections",
"world",
"gorton-and-denton",
"world-elections"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-27 | [
"2026-01-28",
"2026-02-05",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-25"
] | [
null,
0.5405180311484967,
0.6121757944689026,
0.6664451413262447,
0.6511728972404086
] | [
"Matt Goodwin - Reform",
"Andy Burnham - Labour",
"Bev Craig - Labour",
"Zia Yusuf – Reform UK",
"Lee Moffitt – Reform UK",
"Angeliki Stogia - Labour",
"Amanda Gardner – Green Party",
"Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK",
"Zack Polanski – Green Party",
"Hannah Spencer - Green Party",
"Jackie Pearcy - L... | [
{
"label": "Matt Goodwin - Reform",
"question": "Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?"
},
{
"label": "Andy Burnham - Labour",
"question": "Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?"
},
{
"label": "Bev Craig - Labour",
"question": "... |
200602 | train | winter-games-2026-alpine-womens-slalom | Winter Games 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent d... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom | multi_neg_risk | Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"winter-games",
"sports",
"olympics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-18 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13"
] | [
0.05632582322357018,
0.4998609871376519,
0.3386107020127639
] | [
"Mikaela Shiffrin (USA)",
"Katharina Truppe (AUT)",
"Sara Hector (SWE)",
"Lena Duerr (GER)",
"Martina Peterlini (ITA)",
"Ana Bucik Jogan (SLO)",
"Marie Lamure (FRA)",
"Caitlin McFarlane (FRA)",
"Camille Rast (SUI)",
"Wendy Holdener (SUI)",
"Emma Aicher (GER)",
"Zrinka Ljutic (CRO)",
"Eliane ... | [
{
"label": "Mikaela Shiffrin (USA)",
"question": "Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "Katharina Truppe (AUT)",
"question": "Will Katharina Truppe (AUT) win the gold medal for ... |
152053 | train | houston-texans-stage-of-elimination-20252026 | Houston Texans: Stage of Elimination 2025–2026 | This market will resolve according to the stage of elimination for the Houston Texans in the 2025–26 NFL Playoffs.
The market will immediately resolve once the Houston Texans’ stage of elimination can be confirmed.
If the Houston Texans’ stage of elimination has not been confirmed by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, t... | Forecast: Houston Texans: Stage of Elimination 2025–2026 | multi_neg_risk | Divisional | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"nfl-playoffs",
"football",
"nfl",
"sports"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-01-19 | [
"2026-01-09",
"2026-01-14",
"2026-01-15"
] | [
0.22378378378378377,
0.6192244224422443,
0.6078431372549019
] | [
"Wild Card",
"Conference Championship",
"Win Super Bowl",
"Divisional",
"Lose in Super Bowl"
] | [
{
"label": "Wild Card",
"question": "Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?"
},
{
"label": "Conference Championship",
"question": "Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?"
},
{
"label": "Win Super Bowl",
"question": "Will the... |
203001 | train | sea-rom-cre-2026-02-22 | AS Roma vs. US Cremonese | This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between AS Roma and US Cremonese. | Forecast: AS Roma vs. US Cremonese | multi_neg_risk | AS Roma | sports | [
"sports",
"geopolitics",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sea",
"soccer",
"games",
"sports"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.7127704709376326,
0.7169651709615507,
0.7177847884118125,
0.7149708090075062
] | [
"AS Roma",
"US Cremonese",
"Draw (AS Roma vs. US Cremonese)"
] | [
{
"label": "AS Roma",
"question": "Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "US Cremonese",
"question": "Will US Cremonese win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (AS Roma vs. US Cremonese)",
"question": "Will AS Roma vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?"
}
] |
203111 | train | lal-vil-val-2026-02-22 | Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF | This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between Villarreal CF and Valencia CF. | Forecast: Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF | multi_neg_risk | Villarreal CF | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"la-liga",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-23 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-17",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.569558792484695,
0.5722421430078042,
0.5645483613109512,
0.5623056189093926
] | [
"Villarreal CF",
"Draw (Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF)",
"Valencia CF"
] | [
{
"label": "Villarreal CF",
"question": "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF)",
"question": "Will Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Valencia CF",
"question": "Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-22?"
}
] |
201458 | train | winter-games-2026-snowboard-slopestyle-mens | Winter Games 2026: Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent disqualifications ... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's | multi_neg_risk | Su Yiming (CHN) | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"sports",
"winter-games",
"olympics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-18 | [
"2026-02-09",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13"
] | [
0.04814439429771603,
0.09710689840244831,
0.13137105089422813
] | [
"Ian Matteoli (ITA)",
"Su Yiming (CHN)",
"Francis Jobin (CAN)",
"Rocco Jamieson (NZL)",
"Ryoma Kimata (JPN)",
"Valentino Guseli (AUS)",
"Jake Canter (USA)",
"Marcus Kleveland (NOR)",
"Eli Bouchard (CAN)",
"Clemens Millauer (AUT)",
"Rene Rinnekangas (FIN)",
"Cameron Spalding (CAN)",
"Hiroto O... | [
{
"label": "Ian Matteoli (ITA)",
"question": "Will Ian Matteoli (ITA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "Su Yiming (CHN)",
"question": "Will Su Yiming (CHN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men's at the 202... |
200622 | train | winter-games-2026-curling-mens | Winter Games 2026: Curling - Men's | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent disqualif... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Curling - Men's | multi_neg_risk | Canada | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"winter-games",
"sports",
"olympics"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.12533333333333332,
0.29651167577923154,
0.21964773476499952,
0.3301430384022053
] | [
"Great Britain",
"China",
"Czechia",
"Canada",
"Norway",
"Switzerland",
"Italy",
"USA",
"Sweden",
"Germany"
] | [
{
"label": "Great Britain",
"question": "Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "China",
"question": "Will China win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cor... |
200623 | train | winter-games-2026-curling-womens | Winter Games 2026: Curling - Women's | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent disqual... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Curling - Women's | multi_neg_risk | Sweden | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"sports",
"olympics",
"winter-games"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-18"
] | [
0.1,
0.10203505100706252,
0.09577579970433743,
0.22830485855025068
] | [
"Japan",
"South Korea",
"China",
"Sweden",
"Denmark",
"Canada",
"Italy",
"Switzerland",
"Great Britain",
"USA"
] | [
{
"label": "Japan",
"question": "Will Japan win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "South Korea",
"question": "Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cor... |
212991 | train | highest-grossing-movie-this-weekend-february-20 | Highest grossing movie this weekend (February 20) | This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of February 20 - 22. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once th... | Forecast: Highest grossing movie this weekend (February 20) | multi_neg_risk | GOAT | pop_culture | [
"pop_culture"
] | [
"movies",
"pop-culture"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-24 | [
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-19",
"2026-02-21"
] | [
0.6688519250725264,
0.6222740059943123,
0.8352657923081797
] | [
"GOAT",
"Wuthering Heights",
"I Can Only Imagine 2"
] | [
{
"label": "GOAT",
"question": "Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?"
},
{
"label": "Wuthering Heights",
"question": "Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?"
},
{
"label": "I Can Only Imagine 2",
"question": "Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be t... |
203105 | train | lal-bar-lev-2026-02-22 | FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD | This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between FC Barcelona and Levante UD. | Forecast: FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD | multi_neg_risk | FC Barcelona | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"la-liga",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.903781512605042,
0.8981400971306173,
0.8779583378776311
] | [
"FC Barcelona",
"Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD)",
"Levante UD"
] | [
{
"label": "FC Barcelona",
"question": "Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD)",
"question": "Will FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Levante UD",
"question": "Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22?"
}
] |
200639 | train | winter-games-2026-speed-skating-mens-500m | Winter Games 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequen... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m | multi_neg_risk | Jordan Stolz (USA) | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"olympics",
"sports",
"winter-games"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-14 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-09",
"2026-02-10"
] | [
0.058597285067873296,
0.28182588756152915,
0.37213212704490023
] | [
"Wataru Morishige (JPN)",
"Joep Wennemars (NED)",
"Laurent Dubreuil (CAN)",
"Damien Zurek (POL)",
"Tingyu Gao (CHN)",
"Yuta Hirose (JPN)",
"Cedrick Brunet (CAN)",
"Jun-Ho Kim (KOR)",
"Bjorn Magnussen (NOR)",
"Tatsuya Shinhama (JPN)",
"Jordan Stolz (USA)",
"Yevgeniy Koshkin (KAZ)",
"Sebas Din... | [
{
"label": "Wataru Morishige (JPN)",
"question": "Will Wataru Morishige (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "Joep Wennemars (NED)",
"question": "Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for W... |
202992 | train | epl-sun-ful-2026-02-22 | Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between Sunderland AFC and Fulham FC. | Forecast: Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC | multi_neg_risk | Fulham FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.34988428361035134,
0.3502092050209205,
0.35641079272118803
] | [
"Sunderland AFC",
"Draw (Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC)",
"Fulham FC"
] | [
{
"label": "Sunderland AFC",
"question": "Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC)",
"question": "Will Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Fulham FC",
"question": "Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-22?"
}
] |
203002 | train | epl-tot-ars-2026-02-22 | Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between Tottenham Hotspur FC and Arsenal FC. | Forecast: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC | multi_neg_risk | Arsenal FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"premier-league",
"sports",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-19"
] | [
0.6326611594098337,
0.6154327424400416,
0.6123755334281651
] | [
"Arsenal FC",
"Tottenham Hotspur FC",
"Draw (Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC)"
] | [
{
"label": "Arsenal FC",
"question": "Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Tottenham Hotspur FC",
"question": "Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC)",
"question": "Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC... |
202983 | train | epl-not-liv-2026-02-22 | Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC | This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, February 22, 2026 between Nottingham Forest FC and Liverpool FC. | Forecast: Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC | multi_neg_risk | Liverpool FC | sports | [
"sports",
"pop_culture"
] | [
"sports",
"premier-league",
"EPL",
"games",
"soccer"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-10",
"2026-02-13",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.5315985130111524,
0.534152436484798,
0.5368091762252346
] | [
"Nottingham Forest FC",
"Draw (Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC)",
"Liverpool FC"
] | [
{
"label": "Nottingham Forest FC",
"question": "Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-22?"
},
{
"label": "Draw (Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC)",
"question": "Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?"
},
{
"label": "Liverpool FC",
"question": "Will Liverpoo... |
200608 | train | winter-games-2026-xc-mens-10km-interval-start-free | Winter Games 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free | This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. ... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free | multi_neg_risk | Johannes Klaebo (NOR) | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"sports",
"olympics",
"winter-games"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-13 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-09",
"2026-02-10"
] | [
0.0619699934768428,
0.0760412262522786,
0.1372663626206831
] | [
"Einer Hedegart (NOR)",
"Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR)",
"Gus Schumacher (USA)",
"Hugo Lapalus (FRA)",
"Arsi Ruuskanen (FIN)",
"Edvin Anger (SWE)",
"Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR)",
"Mika Vermuelen (AUT)",
"Andrew Musgrave (GBR)",
"Thomas Maloney Westgaard (IRL)",
"Friedrich Moch (GER)",
"Fl... | [
{
"label": "Einer Hedegart (NOR)",
"question": "Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?"
},
{
"label": "Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR)",
"question": "Will Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NO... |
210690 | train | ethereum-price-on-february-22 | Ethereum price on February 22? | This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently... | Forecast: Ethereum price on February 22? | multi_neg_risk | 1,900-2,000 | crypto | [
"crypto"
] | [
"ethereum",
"crypto",
"crypto-prices"
] | [
"weekly",
"neg-risk",
"recurring",
"hide-from-new"
] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-22 | [
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-18",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.24053932950425683,
0.30111596016317227,
0.48735458768412276
] | [
"2,400-2,500",
">2,500",
"2,100-2,200",
"2,300-2,400",
"1,600-1,700",
"1,700-1,800",
"1,800-1,900",
"1,900-2,000",
"<1,600",
"2,000-2,100",
"2,200-2,300"
] | [
{
"label": "2,400-2,500",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 22?"
},
{
"label": ">2,500",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22?"
},
{
"label": "2,100-2,200",
"question": "Will the price of Ethereum... |
198714 | train | winter-games-2026-athlete-to-be-stripped-of-medal | Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is officially announced that an athlete or team that placed for any medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics has been disqualified or had their medal revoked due to an amendment to results that removes them from a podium position. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “N... | Forecast: Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal? | binary | NO | sports | [
"sports"
] | [
"winter-games",
"olympics",
"sports"
] | [] | 2025-03-01 | 2026-02-24 | [
"2026-02-06",
"2026-02-12",
"2026-02-16",
"2026-02-20"
] | [
0.5604166666666666,
0.5364583333333333,
0.7672916666666667,
0.9265625
] | [
"YES",
"NO"
] | [] |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
Forecast Dojo
Forecast Dojo is a longitudinal forecasting benchmark comparing language-model probability forecasts with contemporaneous prediction-market crowd judgments.
This export contains 1,301 questions, 60 model runs, 193,235 checkpoint forecasts, 95,555 extractable submitted belief-notebook rows, and 544,172 checkpoint-level tool summaries.
Snapshot
- Source releases: August 2026 and September 10, 2026.
- Question splits: 1,053 train and 248 evaluation questions.
- Published result coverage: 193,235 of 193,362 expected checkpoint-rollout rows; 127 source rows are missing.
Dataset configurations
- questions: canonical prompts, question text, markets, options, dates, domains, splits, and resolved outcomes.
- forecasts: submitted probabilities, quality diagnostics, crowd probabilities, scores, costs, tokens, and checkpoint metadata. These rows are evaluation data.
- notebooks: final extractable submitted belief-notebook blocks. These are not raw chain-of-thought transcripts, and missing or invalid blocks remain documented by the forecast-level formatting fields.
- tool_usage: per-checkpoint aggregate search, scrape, Python, and other tool statistics reported by the runner; these are not raw tool-call transcripts.
- runs: sanitized configuration, provenance hashes, and completeness information.
Important semantics
checkpoint_indexis the zero-based chronological position in a question'sforecast_datesschedule.episode_step_indexis the runner-local step. It resets in independent mode, so it must not be used as a cross-mode timeline index.parse_okmeans the submitted answer was parsed; it does not guarantee a valid probability vector. Useprobability_vector_valid,labels_match_question,prob_sum_raw, and the other preserved diagnostics for quality filtering.forecast_labelsandforecast_probabilitiesare aligned arrays. Non-finite submitted values are retained as nulls rather than silently dropped.- Notebook rows retain the final submitted
<belief_notebook>block. Useblock_count,source_format_ok, andjson_validto audit extraction quality. - The
analysis/directory contains the supplied precomputed paper artifacts and documents its intermediate failed log separately.
The original model-call telemetry files, full unparsed responses, system prompts, internal endpoints, and the CC-News article corpus are not included.
Publication status
No license is declared yet. Review question-source terms, notebook excerpts, retrieved-news quotations, and closed-model output redistribution terms before making this dataset public.
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