Luna endpoint incident: re-run 5 tau2/cro/sol cells, rescore 10 tests

LUNA_INCIDENT.md

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+# Luna endpoint incident — corrections of 2026-09-08
+
+## What happened
+
+The `gpt-5.6-luna` serving endpoint used by the sweep degraded around **2026-08-20**
+(host `simonyu-self-play-tb-master-0`; the 5 cells restarted 2026-08-27 stamp the model id
+`openai/gpt-5.6-luna-tools` instead of `openai/gpt-5.6-luna`). Last healthy tau2 eval
+2026-08-19 17:16 UTC; first sick 2026-08-21 19:47. The endpoint never recovered through
+09-04. 15 published cells were affected, in two classes:
+
+- **5 cells where the search itself ran sick** (dev_best 0.24–0.33 vs healthy 0.61–0.76):
+  `full_tau2_{medium_seed1,medium_seed2,minimal_seed0,strong_seed0,strong_seed2}_cro_sol`.
+- **10 cells with healthy search but sealed-test scored against the sick endpoint**
+  (final test evals or 08-31 rescores landed after the cutover).
+
+## Corrections in this snapshot
+
+**5 full re-runs** (flag `rerun-20260908`): re-run from scratch with the identical method
+config (`cro --iterations 24 --counterfactuals 2 --dev-n 55 --max-proposer-sessions 24` +
+CRO_COMMON, dev/test reps 3) and the same model ids (worker `openai/gpt-5.6-luna`, user-sim
+`openai/gpt-5.4-mini`, proposer `gpt-5.6-sol` via codex CLI), all served by api.openai.com.
+All 5 completed the full 24/24 proposer sessions. Old tarballs are retained under
+`cells/cro/superseded/2026-09-08/`; new tarballs replace them in `cells/cro/`. Rows in
+RESULTS.md are regenerated from the new `summary.json`s (test_se 0.047–0.053, rep_sd
+0.024–0.028, `invalid: []` on all 5).
+
+| cell | pub dev/test | rerun dev/test |
+|---|---|---|
+| tau2 minimal seed0 | 0.333 / 0.1697 | 0.612 / 0.4909 |
+| tau2 medium seed1 | 0.267 / 0.2909 | 0.576 / 0.4970 |
+| tau2 medium seed2 | 0.255 / 0.3394 | 0.612 / 0.5152 |
+| tau2 strong seed0 | 0.236 / 0.2242 | 0.527 / 0.4606 |
+| tau2 strong seed2 | 0.273 / 0.2061 | 0.570 / 0.4788 |
+
+**10 test rescores** (flag `rescored,luna-20260908`): sealed test re-evaluated 3 reps per
+cell against a healthy luna serving path, using the archived final candidate (real CRO
+runtime for CRO cells). Full per-cell numbers incl. the two sanity gates in
+`rescores/luna_reeval_20260906.json`. Sanity gates: a never-affected tau2/MH cell re-read
+0.533 vs 0.600 published (tau2 reads ~0.07 conservative on this serving path — the
+corrected tau2 rescores are, if anything, slightly LOW); a healthy gpqa/CRO cell re-read
+0.864 vs 0.773 published.
+
+## Caveats
+
+1. **Rerun deviations from the original runs**: different host; codebase
+   `preflight-p0-fixes @a6492fc` + endpoint-routing edits (the original `rerun/p0-merged
+   @286f18b6` was unpushed and dirty, but `method_argv` matches verbatim); codex auth
+   api-key vs subscription; codex sandbox `workspace-write` vs `danger-full-access`;
+   harness additions: NL-assertion evaluation shim (equivalent to newer tau2
+   `task_needs_nl` semantics) and a long-window 429 backoff.
+2. **Genesis scores of the 10 rescored cells were NOT re-measured** — `d_self` there
+   compares a healthy test to a genesis that may itself have been scored against the sick
+   endpoint (biasing d_self up). The 5 rerun cells have internally consistent
+   genesis/test.
+3. **Rescore serving path** for the 10: Databricks-hosted `gpt-5-6-luna` (canonically the
+   same weights); see sanity gates above for the measured offset.
+4. `MANIFEST.json` was not regenerated here — the 5 rerun rows are backed by their new
+   tarballs; the 10 rescored rows are backed by `rescores/luna_reeval_20260906.json`, not
+   by rescore blocks inside their tarballs. Regenerating the manifest
+   (`scripts/archive_manifest.py --write`) after merge is recommended.
+5. Rollout health of the reruns: 99.5–99.9% ok; the residual failures are the known
+   non-deterministic tau2 empty-completion class (`AssistantMessage must have either
+   content or tool calls`), at far lower rates than the 10–24% documented for the sick
+   period.

RESULTS.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Per-cell results
 
-Snapshot 2026-09-05 03:11 · **162 publishable cells** (7 withheld, see EXCLUDED.md).
+Snapshot 2026-09-05 03:11, amended 2026-09-08 (luna endpoint incident: 5 tau2/cro/sol cells fully re-run, 10 cells test-rescored — see LUNA_INCIDENT.md) · **162 publishable cells** (7 withheld, see EXCLUDED.md).
 
 A **cell** is one (benchmark x method x seed-agent tier x proposer arm x RNG seed) run.
 `test` is the SEALED held-out split, never seen during search.
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ for those cells.
 | live | gpqa | minimal | adaevolve | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.8737 | 5 | 32.79 | archive-authoritative | 0.8434 | first-stamp | 0.0303 | 0.585 | 0.2887 | 108 |
 | cro | gpqa | medium | cro | opus | seed0 | completed | 0.8838 | 9 | 49.17 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.612 | 0.2718 | 452 |
 | cro | gpqa | medium | cro | opus | seed1 | completed | 0.8535 | 4 | 5.39 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.612 | 0.2415 | 61 |
-| cro | gpqa | medium | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.5606 | 4 | 16.43 | rescored | 0.5202 | first-stamp | 0.0404 | 0.612 | -0.0514 | 12 |
+| cro | gpqa | medium | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.8586 | 4 | 16.43 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.5202 | first-stamp | 0.3384 | 0.612 | 0.2466 | 12 |
 | cro | gpqa | medium | cro | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.7727 | 7 | 24.96 | - | 0.8384 | first-stamp | -0.0657 | 0.612 | 0.1607 | 12 |
 | cro | gpqa | medium | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.7980 | 8 | 24.64 | - | 0.8232 | first-stamp | -0.0253 | 0.612 | 0.1860 | 12 |
 | cro | gpqa | minimal | cro | opus | seed0 | completed | 0.8788 | 8 | 35.05 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.585 | 0.2938 | 349 |
@@ -140,28 +140,28 @@ for those cells.
 | live | gpqa | minimal | mh | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.8636 | 2 | 12.49 | rescored | 0.8333 | first-stamp | 0.0303 | 0.585 | 0.2786 | 17 |
 | live | gpqa | strong | mh | opus5 | seed0 | completed | 0.8687 | 12 | 110.27 | - | 0.8889 | first-stamp | -0.0202 | 0.694 | 0.1747 | 605 |
 | live | gpqa | strong | mh | opus5 | seed1 | completed | 0.8838 | 7 | 69.95 | - | 0.8788 | first-stamp | 0.0051 | 0.694 | 0.1898 | 515 |
-| live | gpqa | strong | mh | opus5 | seed2 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.6515 | 6 | 62.44 | rescored,timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.694 | -0.0425 | 641 |
+| live | gpqa | strong | mh | opus5 | seed2 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.8838 | 6 | 62.44 | rescored,timeout-72h,luna-20260908 | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.694 | 0.1898 | 641 |
 | live | gpqa | strong | mh | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.8788 | 10 | 54.93 | - | 0.8838 | first-stamp | -0.0051 | 0.694 | 0.1848 | 11 |
 | live | gpqa | strong | mh | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.8889 | 1 | 13.97 | - | 0.8889 | provisioned | 0.0000 | 0.694 | 0.1949 | 13 |
 | live | gpqa | strong | mh | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.8586 | 11 | 35.82 | - | 0.8586 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.694 | 0.1646 | 13 |
 | cro | tau2 | medium | cro | opus | seed0 | completed | 0.6242 | 7 | 42.12 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.3112 | 547 |
 | cro | tau2 | medium | cro | opus | seed1 | completed | 0.5636 | 6 | 32.55 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.2506 | 393 |
 | cro | tau2 | medium | cro | opus | seed2 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.6121 | 6 | 37.9 | timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.2991 | 475 |
-| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.4545 | 3 | 11.59 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.1415 | 12 |
-| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.2909 | 6 | 59.56 | - | 0.1394 | first-stamp | 0.1515 | 0.313 | -0.0221 | 24 |
-| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.3394 | 8 | 60.47 | - | 0.3333 | first-stamp | 0.0061 | 0.313 | 0.0264 | 24 |
+| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.4848 | 3 | 11.59 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.1718 | 12 |
+| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.4970 | 5 | 56.67 | rerun-20260908 | 0.5091 | first-stamp | -0.0121 | 0.313 | 0.1840 | 24 |
+| cro | tau2 | medium | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.5152 | 6 | 55.57 | rerun-20260908 | 0.4788 | first-stamp | 0.0364 | 0.313 | 0.2022 | 24 |
 | cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | opus | seed0 | completed | 0.5879 | 5 | 32.69 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.331 | 0.2569 | 420 |
 | cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | opus | seed1 | completed | 0.5818 | 5 | 38.45 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.331 | 0.2508 | 497 |
 | cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | opus | seed2 | completed | 0.5636 | 4 | 34.4 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.331 | 0.2326 | 419 |
-| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed0 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.1697 | 9 | 61.34 | timeout-72h | 0.2121 | first-stamp | -0.0424 | 0.331 | -0.1613 | 23 |
-| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed1 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.1697 | 3 | 10.36 | timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.331 | -0.1613 | 9 |
-| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.2545 | 2 | 11.04 | - | 0.2545 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.331 | -0.0765 | 12 |
+| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.4909 | 4 | 54.34 | rerun-20260908 | 0.5455 | first-stamp | -0.0546 | 0.331 | 0.1599 | 24 |
+| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed1 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5758 | 3 | 10.36 | timeout-72h,rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.331 | 0.2448 | 9 |
+| cro | tau2 | minimal | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.5212 | 2 | 11.04 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.2545 | first-stamp | 0.2667 | 0.331 | 0.1902 | 12 |
 | cro | tau2 | strong | cro | opus | seed0 | completed | 0.5758 | 5 | 39.05 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | 0.1868 | 469 |
 | cro | tau2 | strong | cro | opus | seed1 | completed | 0.5394 | 5 | 32.41 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | 0.1504 | 381 |
 | cro | tau2 | strong | cro | opus | seed2 | completed | 0.4970 | 5 | 32.9 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | 0.1080 | 429 |
-| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.2242 | 8 | 57.0 | - | 0.2061 | first-stamp | 0.0182 | 0.389 | -0.1648 | 24 |
-| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.1333 | 3 | 12.49 | - | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | -0.2557 | 12 |
-| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.2061 | 8 | 58.06 | - | 0.1030 | first-stamp | 0.1030 | 0.389 | -0.1829 | 24 |
+| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.4606 | 2 | 60.52 | rerun-20260908 | 0.4606 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.389 | 0.0716 | 24 |
+| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.5333 | 3 | 12.49 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | 0.1443 | 12 |
+| cro | tau2 | strong | cro | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.4788 | 5 | 48.09 | rerun-20260908 | 0.4606 | first-stamp | 0.0182 | 0.389 | 0.0898 | 24 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | gepa | opus5 | seed0 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5818 | 2 | 48.73 | timeout-72h | 0.5818 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.313 | 0.2688 | 63 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | gepa | opus5 | seed1 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5636 | 2 | 27.03 | rescored,timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.2506 | 56 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | gepa | opus5 | seed2 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5879 | 5 | 25.76 | rescored,timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.2749 | 54 |
@@ -182,19 +182,19 @@ for those cells.
 | live | tau2 | strong | gepa | sol | seed2 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5455 | 3 | 28.94 | rescored,timeout-72h | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.389 | 0.1565 | 61 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | mh | opus5 | seed0 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.6242 | 8 | 66.57 | timeout-72h | 0.6242 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.313 | 0.3112 | 474 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | mh | opus5 | seed1 | completed | 0.5758 | 3 | 44.2 | - | 0.5758 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.313 | 0.2628 | 762 |
-| live | tau2 | medium | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.2364 | 5 | 102.35 | - | 0.2364 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.313 | -0.0766 | 1735 |
+| live | tau2 | medium | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.4727 | 5 | 102.35 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.2364 | first-stamp | 0.2363 | 0.313 | 0.1597 | 1735 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | mh | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.6000 | 1 | 14.54 | - | 0.6000 | provisioned | 0.0000 | 0.313 | 0.2870 | 21 |
-| live | tau2 | medium | mh | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.4242 | 11 | 35.89 | rescored | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.1112 | 24 |
+| live | tau2 | medium | mh | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.5333 | 11 | 35.89 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.0000 | first-stamp | - | 0.313 | 0.2203 | 24 |
 | live | tau2 | medium | mh | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.5818 | 1 | 7.42 | rescored | 0.0000 | provisioned | - | 0.313 | 0.2688 | 18 |
 | live | tau2 | minimal | mh | opus5 | seed0 | completed | 0.6000 | 12 | 83.02 | - | 0.6242 | first-stamp | -0.0242 | 0.331 | 0.2690 | 853 |
 | live | tau2 | minimal | mh | opus5 | seed1 | completed | 0.6121 | 2 | 35.3 | - | 0.6121 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.331 | 0.2811 | 688 |
-| live | tau2 | minimal | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.4364 | 9 | 95.09 | - | 0.2545 | first-stamp | 0.1818 | 0.331 | 0.1054 | 1462 |
+| live | tau2 | minimal | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.5758 | 9 | 95.09 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.2545 | first-stamp | 0.3213 | 0.331 | 0.2448 | 1462 |
 | live | tau2 | minimal | mh | sol | seed0 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5697 | 13 | 45.64 | timeout-72h | 0.5455 | first-stamp | 0.0242 | 0.331 | 0.2387 | 13 |
 | live | tau2 | minimal | mh | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.5939 | 1 | 6.27 | rescored | 0.0000 | provisioned | - | 0.331 | 0.2629 | 14 |
 | live | tau2 | minimal | mh | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.6364 | 1 | 5.09 | rescored | 0.0000 | provisioned | - | 0.331 | 0.3054 | 17 |
 | live | tau2 | strong | mh | opus5 | seed0 | method_launch:TimeoutE | 0.5939 | 8 | 66.18 | timeout-72h | 0.4303 | first-stamp | 0.1636 | 0.389 | 0.2049 | 417 |
 | live | tau2 | strong | mh | opus5 | seed1 | completed | 0.6061 | 4 | 69.7 | rescored | 0.5879 | first-stamp | 0.0182 | 0.389 | 0.2171 | 1097 |
-| live | tau2 | strong | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.3394 | 10 | 87.38 | - | 0.2606 | first-stamp | 0.0788 | 0.389 | -0.0496 | 1313 |
+| live | tau2 | strong | mh | opus5 | seed2 | completed | 0.4606 | 10 | 87.38 | rescored,luna-20260908 | 0.2606 | first-stamp | 0.2000 | 0.389 | 0.0716 | 1313 |
 | live | tau2 | strong | mh | sol | seed0 | completed | 0.5879 | 6 | 13.27 | - | 0.5879 | first-stamp | 0.0000 | 0.389 | 0.1989 | 13 |
 | live | tau2 | strong | mh | sol | seed1 | completed | 0.6000 | 1 | 5.84 | rescored | 0.0000 | provisioned | - | 0.389 | 0.2110 | 21 |
 | live | tau2 | strong | mh | sol | seed2 | completed | 0.5455 | 1 | 7.67 | rescored | 0.0000 | provisioned | - | 0.389 | 0.1565 | 19 |

SUPERSEDED.md

@@ -1,5 +1,22 @@
 # Superseded cells
 
+## 2026-09-08 — luna endpoint incident re-runs
+
+Five tau2/cro/sol cells whose search ran against the degraded `gpt-5.6-luna-tools`
+endpoint (see `LUNA_INCIDENT.md`) are superseded by full re-runs at identical config.
+Old tarballs retained at `cells/cro/superseded/2026-09-08/`; new runs replace them in
+`cells/cro/`.
+
+| cell | old dev/test | old reason | new run |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| full_tau2_medium_cro_sol_seed1 | 0.267 / 0.2909 | completed | 2026-09-08, 24/24 sessions, 0.576 / 0.4970 |
+| full_tau2_medium_cro_sol_seed2 | 0.255 / 0.3394 | completed | 2026-09-08, 24/24 sessions, 0.612 / 0.5152 |
+| full_tau2_minimal_cro_sol_seed0 | 0.333 / 0.1697 | method_launch:TimeoutExpired | 2026-09-08, 24/24 sessions, 0.612 / 0.4909 |
+| full_tau2_strong_cro_sol_seed0 | 0.236 / 0.2242 | completed | 2026-09-08, 24/24 sessions, 0.527 / 0.4606 |
+| full_tau2_strong_cro_sol_seed2 | 0.273 / 0.2061 | completed | 2026-09-08, 24/24 sessions, 0.570 / 0.4788 |
+
+## 2026-08-30
+
 Snapshot 2026-08-30. These cells are **moved out of the primary index** to `cells/live/superseded/2026-08-22/` because a full-budget re-run of the same cell now
 exists in `cells/`. They are retained, not deleted: both are legitimate *anytime* results
 and they back rows in the previously published table.

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rescores/luna_reeval_20260906.json

@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
+[
+ {
+  "cell": "sol_tau2_medium_mh_seed0",
+  "digest": "f45b07f4dc6c",
+  "role": "final",
+  "published_test": 0.6,
+  "best_dev": 0.709091,
+  "test_score": 0.5333333636363636,
+  "test_se": null,
+  "sanity": true,
+  "note": null,
+  "error": null
+ },
+ {
+  "cell": "opus5_tau2_medium_mh_seed2",
+  "digest": "404d5abd9948",
+  "role": "final",
+  "published_test": 0.236,
+  "best_dev": 0.70303,
+  "test_score": 0.4727272545454545,
+  "test_se": null,
+  "sanity": false,
+  "note": null,
+  "error": null
+ },
+ {
+  "cell": "opus5_tau2_strong_mh_seed2",
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