| --- |
| license: cc-by-4.0 |
| pretty_name: BookieBench |
| language: |
| - en |
| - de |
| - es |
| - pt |
| - zh |
| - fr |
| - ru |
| task_categories: |
| - question-answering |
| - multiple-choice |
| - text-classification |
| tags: |
| - calibration |
| - probabilistic-reasoning |
| - coherence |
| - dutch-book |
| - bayesian-inference |
| - benchmark |
| size_categories: |
| - 10K<n<100K |
| configs: |
| - config_name: in_family |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/in_family/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: in_family_v2 |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/in_family_v2/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: prior |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/prior/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: surface_transfer |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/surface_transfer/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: new_mechanics |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/new_mechanics/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: realcoh |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/realcoh/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_anchoring |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_anchoring/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_base_rate |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_base_rate/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_conjunction |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_conjunction/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_disjunction |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_disjunction/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_format_chat |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_format_chat/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_format_csv |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_format_csv/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_format_email |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_format_email/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_format_log |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_format_log/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_format_markdown |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_format_markdown/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_lang_de |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_lang_de/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_lang_es |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_lang_es/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_lang_pt |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_lang_pt/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_lang_zh |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_lang_zh/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_negation |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_negation/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_nested |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_nested/dev.parquet |
| - config_name: stress_paraphrase |
| data_files: |
| - split: dev |
| path: data/stress_paraphrase/dev.parquet |
| --- |
| |
| # BookieBench |
|
|
| **Can a model's probabilities be trusted?** BookieBench asks a model for many linked probabilities about one |
| situation. It then checks four things: |
| - **coherence**: whether a bookie can Dutch-book the answers, whether they are invariant to option and evidence |
| order, and whether updates follow a martingale; |
| - **calibration** against sampled gold; |
| - **skill** against exact posteriors, relative to the evidence-blind `uniform_joint` and to train-fitted priors; |
| - **evidence sensitivity**. |
|
|
| Code, metrics, runners and full documentation: **https://github.com/Mapika/bookiebench**. Scoring requires the `bookiebench` package: |
|
|
| ```bash |
| pip install -e . # from a clone of the GitHub repo |
| bookiebench run oracle data/release/test --out results/oracle |
| bookiebench score results/oracle --data data/release |
| ``` |
|
|
| ## Licence |
|
|
| - The **generated synthetic data** is released under **CC-BY-4.0** (`LICENSE`). It covers every simulator config |
| and the stress text we generated. Copyright 2026 Mark Marosi. |
| - **realcoh** is real text, and each source keeps **its own licence**; see `metadata/realcoh_NOTICE.md` and |
| `metadata/NOTICE.md`. The licences include cc-by-4.0, cc-by-sa-4.0, mit, apache-2.0, gpl-3.0 and cc-by-nc-4.0, and |
| some are research-only or undeclared. |
| - Sources that may not be redistributed ship **ids only**. Each such row has `evidence: null`, a `source_ref`, a |
| sha256 of the text, and the questions. |
|
|
| ## Configs |
|
|
| All configs have a single split, `dev`. These are the public dev files. Leaderboard editions are regenerated from |
| secret seeds and are not published here. |
|
|
| | config | rows | what | train data for these families? | |
| |---|---|---|---| |
| | `in_family` | 2,100 | 7 v1 simulator families (urn, dice, medical, alarm, sensor, cards, witness) | yes (unseen worlds) | |
| | `in_family_v2` | 3,900 | 13 v2 pack families (mechanics, programs, tables) | yes (unseen worlds) | |
| | `prior` | 600 | random Bayes nets and random HMMs | yes (unseen worlds) | |
| | `surface_transfer` | 1,200 | factory, weather, spam, hiring: re-skinned v1 mechanics | no, but they are not new reasoning | |
| | `new_mechanics` | 3,300 | genetics, tracking + 9 pack families never in train | **no** (the transfer headline) | |
| | `realcoh` | 5,000 | 25 real-world sources x 200 states; no exact law (coherence + gold where labelled). `release_mode` = keep (full text) / ids_only (evidence null) | n/a | |
| |
| Stress transforms of the 11 v1 test/heldout families: |
| |
| | config | rows | | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `stress_anchoring` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_base_rate` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_conjunction` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_disjunction` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_format_chat` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_format_csv` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_format_email` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_format_log` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_format_markdown` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_lang_de` | 2,156 | | |
| | `stress_lang_es` | 2,535 | | |
| | `stress_lang_pt` | 2,451 | | |
| | `stress_lang_zh` | 2,119 | **BETA** | |
| | `stress_negation` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_nested` | 3,300 | | |
| | `stress_paraphrase` | 2,250 | | |
|
|
| Total: 63,911 rows. |
|
|
| LLM stress items (paraphrase, lang_*) are kept only if **both** judges pass every segment. Judge 1 is |
| Qwen3.8-27B-FP8, the rewriting model, at temperature 0. Judge 2 is deepseek-v41-flash. **`stress_lang_zh` is BETA.** |
| In Chinese, the judges detect only 0.64 and 0.66 of planted query-negation flips, versus 0.96-1.00 for the other |
| languages and paraphrase. A rule filter removed 64 more items. Report lang_zh separately, and keep it out of pooled |
| stress numbers. `lang_hu` and `framing` are excluded from v1. |
|
|
| Compare stressed and clean scores on the same source ids only. The ids are in |
| `metadata/stress_manifest.json` → `transforms[t][family].kept_source_ids`. |
|
|
| ## Format |
|
|
| Each row is one benchmark instance. |
|
|
| | column | contents | |
| |---|---| |
| | `instance` | the instance **verbatim as a JSON string** | |
| | `id`, `family`, `split`, `group`, `level`, `pack`, `transform`, `source_file`, `row` | index fields | |
| | `n_variables`, `n_steps`, `n_queries` | counts | |
| | `has_exact_joint`, `evidence_withheld` | flags | |
| | `source_id` | source instance id (stress) | |
| | `release_mode` | keep / ids_only (realcoh) | |
| | `beta` | true for stress_lang_zh | |
| |
| Instances hold exact posterior joints whose nesting depth equals the number of variables. That varies within a |
| file, so the instance is stored as a string instead of a nested Arrow type. Parse it with `json.loads`. |
| |
| ```python |
| from datasets import load_dataset |
| import json |
| ds = load_dataset("Mapika/bookiebench", "new_mechanics", split="dev") |
| inst = json.loads(ds[0]["instance"]) |
| ``` |
| |
| Writing `instance` in `row` order for each `source_file`, one per line, reproduces the GitHub release JSONL files |
| byte for byte. Their sha256 values are in `metadata/CHECKSUMS.sha256`, and this was verified when the dataset was |
| built. The instance schema (variables, evidence steps with exact joints, queries, gold, perms, next_evidence) is |
| documented in the GitHub README. |
| |
| ## Not included (regenerable) |
| |
| | what | how to get it | |
| |---|---| |
| | **train split** (22 files, 600k instances) | `bookiebench generate --out data/release --train-only`. It is deterministic, byte-identical to our build. | |
| | **ids_only realcoh text** | `bookiebench rebuild-realcoh --release data/release/realcoh --out <dir>`. Reads the Hugging Face datasets at the revisions pinned in `metadata/realcoh_manifest.json` and checks hashes. E-mail addresses are masked as `[EMAIL]` in every source. | |
| | **stress long_4k/8k/16k/32k** (third-party filler) and **scaling** (large, deterministic) | `bookiebench rebuild-stress --long` / `--transforms scaling`. Pinned filler datasets and tokenizer, per-instance sha256 in `metadata/stress_recipe.json`. | |
| |
| ## Known limitations (summary; full list in the GitHub README) |
| |
| - Some questions can be answered from the question alone. The rate is 0.119 for dice and 0.115 for alarm. |
| - Some negated conjunctions are double negations. |
| - `surface_transfer` measures surface transfer, not new mechanics. |
| - Evidence-blind, train-fitted references reach skill of about 0.16 on `in_family_v2`, so use `skill_prior` there. |
| - Contamination flags: |
| - 10 realcoh sources overlap decider's training mixture; |
| - 23 of 25 realcoh sources are likely in pretraining data. |
| - The judge-based filtering of the LLM stress items makes the kept sets judge-dependent. |
| |
| ## Citation |
| |
| See `CITATION.cff` in the GitHub repository. Author: Mark Marosi. |
| |
