| --- |
| pretty_name: UserModeling (Polymarket BehaviorBench) |
| task_categories: |
| - text-classification |
| - tabular-regression |
| language: |
| - en |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| tags: |
| - behavioral-modeling |
| - prediction-markets |
| - user-modeling |
| - polymarket |
| --- |
| |
| # UserModeling (Polymarket BehaviorBench) |
|
|
| ## Dataset description |
|
|
| This dataset supports wallet-level behavioral prediction on Polymarket. It asks whether models can use a wallet's past activity to predict its future position-derived stance or next trading action. It does **not** use market resolution as the primary prediction target. |
|
|
| ### Tasks |
|
|
| - **Belief:** predict a dominant held outcome (`choice`) and a position-derived normalized holding imbalance (`confidence`). |
| - **Trade:** predict a next-action direction (`increase`, `decrease`, or `close`) and an estimated USDC amount. |
|
|
| ### Input interfaces |
|
|
| - **Direct:** behavior history is supplied directly. |
| - **Profile:** history is represented by a generated wallet profile. |
| - **Retrieval:** context is augmented with records retrieved from an external support-wallet pool. |
|
|
| ## Data organization |
|
|
| - `dataset/Belief/source/data.parquet`: 1,810,609 wallet-market stance rows. |
| - `dataset/Belief/splits/`: fixed train/validation/test instances for 2,000 experiment wallets. |
| - `dataset/Belief/support_set/`: 1,669,164 rows from 29,319 non-experiment wallets. |
| - `dataset/Trade/source/`: upstream trade, price-matched, semantic, and behavior-feature tables. |
| - `dataset/Trade/splits/`: fixed structured train/validation/test trade rows. |
| - `dataset/Trade/support_set/`: 5,086,400 trades from 11,676 non-experiment wallets. |
| - `benchmark/`: model-ready Direct, Profile, and Retrieval instances in Parquet and/or compressed JSONL. |
|
|
| See the repository [README](README.md) and [`docs/`](docs/) for schemas and lineage. |
|
|
| ## Belief label semantics |
|
|
| For released source rows: |
|
|
| \[ |
| \text{confidence} |
| = 2\frac{\text{stance\_hold\_amt}}{\text{total\_hold\_amt}} - 1 |
| = \frac{H_{\max}-H_{\min}}{H_{\max}+H_{\min}}. |
| \] |
|
|
| This value measures the normalized imbalance of the wallet's two-sided holdings. It is **not** a directly elicited subjective probability, a market price, or the probability that the market resolves to the selected outcome. |
|
|
| ## Splits and retrieval support |
|
|
| Belief split metadata states a 70/15/15 per-wallet, time-ordered construction using `stance_first_block`, `stance_last_block`, and `market_id`, with rolling history and at most 30 history items in prompts. |
|
|
| Belief retrieval metadata documents exact `event_slug` matching, a strict block-time filter (`support.stance_last_block < target.stance_first_block`), same-wallet exclusion, and the five latest matches. |
|
|
| Trade support metadata states that the fixed 2,000 experiment wallets are excluded and support trades are sorted by wallet, block, and log index. |
|
|
| ## Intended uses |
|
|
| - Evaluating personalized behavioral prediction from prior wallet activity. |
| - Comparing direct-history, profile-based, and retrieval-augmented user representations. |
| - Studying classification and continuous behavioral targets. |
|
|
| ## Responsible use |
|
|
| The release contains public pseudonymous blockchain addresses and behavioral traces. It is intended for research evaluation, not identity attribution, deanonymization, surveillance, financial advice, or consequential decisions about individuals. See [`docs/RESPONSIBLE_AI.md`](docs/RESPONSIBLE_AI.md) for limitations, biases, sensitive-information considerations, intended uses, social impact, synthetic profile content, and provenance. |
|
|
| ## License and machine-readable metadata |
|
|
| BehaviorBench is released under the Apache License 2.0; see [`LICENSE`](LICENSE). Croissant 1.1 core and Responsible AI metadata are provided in [`croissant.json`](croissant.json). |
|
|
