Milestone 3: Empirical Bayes adaptive shrinkage, Long-Only EM timing, Polymarket walk-forward capacity curve, Crypto regime-conditioned composite, and Microstructure Maker queue fee sensitivity
f784e93 verified | # Publication policy | |
| ## Approved public scope | |
| The Git-reachable source history is approved for public release under the MIT | |
| License. The release includes source code, tests, configuration, documentation, | |
| and small non-market fixtures or placeholders only. | |
| Ignored local exchange data, normalized and derived tables, fitted states, | |
| ingestion authorities, generated dashboards, and run artifacts are excluded. | |
| The detailed boundary is recorded in [DATA_POLICY.md](DATA_POLICY.md). | |
| ## Evidence language | |
| - `SYNTHETIC_SMOKE` verifies software behavior only. | |
| - `PUBLIC_SAMPLE_PARTIAL` supports bounded pipeline observations, not persistent | |
| alpha, profitability, or capacity claims. | |
| - The frozen trade-only M8 study ended at `INSUFFICIENT_DATA` after a predeclared | |
| zero-warning gate failed. Selection, held-out evaluation, execution, and P&L | |
| did not run. | |
| - `NONCONFIRMATORY_CONTINUOUS_PILOT_EXPLORATION` is a separate, later evidence | |
| tier. The approved website/Space summary comes from one continuous four-hour | |
| BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT L2 pilot with deterministic market-order simulation, a frozen | |
| 4 bp taker fee, and 144 overlapping counterfactual scenarios. It is labeled | |
| “research reference only.” | |
| - The exploratory summary is not confirmatory evidence, live or realized | |
| execution, a prospectively untouched test, cross-day replication, a | |
| profitability or capacity result, or a statistical-significance claim. | |
| - Its source bundle is pinned to commit | |
| `b918673405226467d6e5c2fa1f2fac59cca19d03`; all 476 recorded files verified | |
| against the bundle checksums before the bounded JSON was generated. | |
| - Superseded campaign calendars remain historical records and are not presented | |
| as current authority. | |
| ## Permanent destinations | |
| - Website: <https://yangxiaoshawn.github.io/projects/microstructure/> | |
| - GitHub: <https://github.com/YangXiaoShawn/open-economic-quant-microstructure> | |
| - Dataset mirror: <https://huggingface.co/datasets/ShawnChamberlain/open-economic-quant-research-data/tree/main/Microstructure> | |
| - Interactive Space: <https://huggingface.co/spaces/ShawnChamberlain/open-economic-quant-research-observatory> | |