id string | question string | category string | url string | market_prob float64 | oracle_prob float64 | edge float64 | confidence float64 | signal string | model string | backtest_acc float64 | auc float64 | modelability int64 | volume int64 | liquidity int64 | end_date timestamp[s] | captured_at string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3695205 | Eagles vs. Bears | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29 | 0.585 | 0.6128 | 0.0278 | 0.8622 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 90 | 5,038,403 | 4,864,026 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857116 | Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-3pt5 | 0.425 | 0.4464 | 0.0214 | 0.8135 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 2,898,149 | 173,053 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3919667 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 41.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-41pt5 | 0.375 | 0.4128 | 0.0378 | 0.763 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 84 | 1,326,560 | 63,032 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857117 | Spread: Eagles (-4.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-4pt5 | 0.325 | 0.3481 | 0.0231 | 0.7759 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 1,037,003 | 73,249 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3701264 | Spread: Bears (-3.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-home-3pt5 | 0.26 | 0.2619 | 0.0019 | 0.7248 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 651,989 | 51,935 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2772194 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-shakhtar-donetsk-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025578 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8776 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 23,659,781 | 412,813 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857118 | Spread: Eagles (-5.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-5pt5 | 0.32 | 0.3412 | 0.0212 | 0.6995 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 451,865 | 51,105 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4858718 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 42.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-42pt5 | 0.365 | 0.3856 | 0.0206 | 0.7904 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 419,512 | 180,649 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1349161 | Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-york-red-bulls-win-the-2026-mls-cup | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8035 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 1,067,346 | 37,216 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1349164 | Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-portland-timbers-win-the-2026-mls-cup | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.7925 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 536,212 | 24,912 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857115 | Spread: Eagles (-2.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-2pt5 | 0.545 | 0.5684 | 0.0234 | 0.7748 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 316,831 | 131,248 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831 | 0.033 | 0.0323 | -0.0007 | 0.8248 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 5,173,707 | 98,992 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3919673 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 57.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-57pt5 | 0.23 | 0.2177 | -0.0123 | 0.2856 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 238,265 | 12,352 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696 | 0.27 | 0.2846 | 0.0146 | 0.7157 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 2,586,238 | 105,766 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857357 | 1H Spread: Eagles (-2.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-1h-spread-away-2pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.047 | 0.0465 | 0.8033 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 225,387 | 133,518 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4641064 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30-20260917 | 0.9645 | 0.976 | 0.0115 | 0.8425 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 2,069,342 | 162,456 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
560317 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027-346 | 0.0285 | 0.0244 | -0.0041 | 0.8917 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 22,426,407 | 889,021 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4797724 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-82pt5k-in-september-2026 | 0.785 | 0.7723 | -0.0127 | 0.7649 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 446,588 | 66,532 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2589813 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032 | 0.685 | 0.6884 | 0.0034 | 0.8292 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 83 | 3,979,039 | 630,651 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3701266 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 44.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-44pt5 | 0.26 | 0.295 | 0.035 | 0.6758 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 207,221 | 51,592 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3215074 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-september-30-20260730004207224 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8469 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 2,896,877 | 185,655 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
601826 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.5795 | 0.5989 | 0.0194 | 0.864 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 12,171,377 | 585,299 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
665374 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 | 0.145 | 0.1462 | 0.0012 | 0.8414 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 69,951,303 | 1,001,640 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3701269 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-49pt5 | 0.235 | 0.2534 | 0.0184 | 0.2795 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 181,177 | 14,357 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3215008 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | 0.77 | 0.7729 | 0.0029 | 0.7276 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 548,436 | 122,718 | 2026-12-09T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3501950 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583 | 0.041 | 0.0386 | -0.0024 | 0.8378 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 1,300,065 | 133,945 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4769494 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/trump-renames-ai-by-september-30 | 0.495 | 0.4683 | -0.0267 | 0.7385 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 86 | 566,614 | 45,304 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
679060 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-christine-lagarde-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.8459 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 497,439 | 218,708 | 2027-04-19T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4689727 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-80k-in-september-2026-from-september-18 | 0.1735 | 0.1791 | 0.0056 | 0.8184 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 536,373 | 55,409 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2589812 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | 0.305 | 0.3261 | 0.0211 | 0.8027 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 4,134,052 | 502,245 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4580365 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Golden Lions - Game 3 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-kbm-gl-2026-09-28-game3 | 0.685 | 0.7397 | 0.0547 | 0.4467 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 161,052 | 6,693 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
601821 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-fernando-haddad-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8691 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 7,706,796 | 530,011 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
601830 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-geraldo-alckmin-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8551 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 7,045,041 | 277,662 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1163699 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 | 0.0525 | 0.0497 | -0.0028 | 0.8741 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 23,228,936 | 497,831 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
948957 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8614 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 1,718,846 | 395,265 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608545 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.4645 | 0.4495 | -0.015 | 0.7944 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 86 | 2,920,295 | 86,661 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1193099 | Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-simona-mohamsson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8415 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 342,576 | 178,175 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4052416 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-92pt5k-in-september-2026 | 0.0075 | 0.0145 | 0.007 | 0.8277 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 683,223 | 92,507 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
701493 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-december-31-2026-756-151-855 | 0.0605 | 0.0587 | -0.0018 | 0.8449 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 1,906,639 | 154,435 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4908363 | Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/val-g21-pr1-2026-09-29 | 0.425 | 0.4387 | 0.0137 | 0.7896 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 213,819 | 239,997 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2774057 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440 | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.866 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 11,584,931 | 463,713 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2696746 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-september-30-2026 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.827 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 2,165,835 | 115,291 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608565 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0435 | 0.0389 | -0.0046 | 0.8448 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 3,282,386 | 175,682 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1193094 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-magdalena-andersson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden | 0.755 | 0.7921 | 0.0371 | 0.7398 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 2,366,849 | 83,972 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4592755 | Will EC Juventude win on 2026-09-28? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-afc-juv-2026-09-28-juv | 0.9995 | 0.9642 | -0.0353 | 0.8073 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 130,294 | 135,319 | 2026-09-28T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
5037324 | Adana: Ksenia Efremova vs Martyna Kubka | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wta-efremov-kubka-2026-09-28 | 0.235 | 0.2503 | 0.0153 | 0.5903 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 128,392 | 10,510 | 2026-10-05T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4589719 | Will Suriname win on 2026-09-28? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/conl-sur-mart-2026-09-28-sur | 0.9995 | 0.9681 | -0.0314 | 0.8058 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 125,680 | 110,521 | 2026-09-28T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2176270 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 | 0.215 | 0.2155 | 0.0005 | 0.8061 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 13,479,053 | 289,171 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4689728 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-77pt5k-in-september-2026-from-september-18 | 0.0395 | 0.0401 | 0.0006 | 0.7761 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 353,450 | 67,541 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4487273 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-september-30 | 0.2 | 0.2046 | 0.0046 | 0.6773 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 895,139 | 20,948 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608547 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.4225 | 0.4592 | 0.0367 | 0.7952 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 84 | 4,598,282 | 90,660 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2589810 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029 | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8748 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 2,412,367 | 708,733 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
601819 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.415 | 0.4262 | 0.0112 | 0.8035 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 12,532,269 | 409,886 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857384 | 1H Spread: Eagles (-4.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-1h-spread-away-4pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.0337 | 0.0332 | 0.8086 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 113,533 | 140,486 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608568 | Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8451 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 1,561,185 | 227,582 | 2026-10-31T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4589731 | Will Jamaica win on 2026-09-28? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/conl-jam-hnd-2026-09-28-jam | 0.017 | 0.0774 | 0.0604 | 0.706 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 112,119 | 22,483 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
562803 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-republican-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections | 0.085 | 0.0811 | -0.0039 | 0.8204 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 5,401,657 | 629,089 | 2027-01-05T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
679038 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-nicolas-dupont-aignan-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8642 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 4,852,077 | 522,063 | 2027-04-19T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3701260 | Spread: Bears (-1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-home-1pt5 | 0.395 | 0.3974 | 0.0024 | 0.7678 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 105,854 | 71,376 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
5062282 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on September 28? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-81k-on-september-28-2026 | 0.012 | 0.01 | -0.002 | 0.7556 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 47 | 105,742 | 26,256 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4614975 | Suriname vs. Martinique: O/U 5.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/conl-sur-mart-2026-09-28-total-5pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.0317 | 0.0312 | 0.8015 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 104,883 | 101,425 | 2026-09-28T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608543 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0065 | 0.01 | 0.0035 | 0.8507 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 2,821,973 | 244,856 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857 | 0.5555 | 0.5804 | 0.0249 | 0.786 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 81 | 2,571,759 | 184,652 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3875324 | Spread: Colts (-3.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-ind-was-2026-10-04-spread-away-3pt5 | 0.495 | 0.4987 | 0.0037 | 0.7389 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 83 | 99,274 | 24,190 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4841934 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-september-29-2026 | 0.9805 | 0.99 | 0.0095 | 0.8051 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 116,402 | 50,373 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608540 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0365 | 0.0363 | -0.0002 | 0.8375 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 2,735,374 | 128,511 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4052418 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-87pt5k-in-september-2026 | 0.045 | 0.0924 | 0.0474 | 0.7285 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 1,172,006 | 95,612 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3491459 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026 | 0.0445 | 0.0383 | -0.0062 | 0.796 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 534,988 | 50,526 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4857119 | Spread: Eagles (-6.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-6pt5 | 0.29 | 0.3097 | 0.0197 | 0.6823 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 103,495 | 54,951 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4617905 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-75k-in-september-2026-from-september-16 | 0.0115 | 0.01 | -0.0015 | 0.7911 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 450,954 | 92,080 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
1796138 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31-1 | 0.105 | 0.1041 | -0.0009 | 0.7607 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 1,863,212 | 54,902 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
559651 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027 | 0.0355 | 0.031 | -0.0045 | 0.871 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 14,084,127 | 645,407 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
3701263 | Spread: Bears (-2.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-home-2pt5 | 0.365 | 0.3649 | -0.0001 | 0.7643 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 84,966 | 63,383 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
608566 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0255 | 0.0218 | -0.0037 | 0.8401 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 2,274,499 | 178,528 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
2034729 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-september-30-396 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8365 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 7,152,025 | 188,717 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.641Z |
4841944 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 29? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-86k-on-september-29-2026 | 0.0185 | 0.02 | 0.0015 | 0.8132 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 89,128 | 55,437 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
2589814 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324033 | 0.0105 | 0.01 | -0.0005 | 0.8577 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 2,398,639 | 324,405 | 2026-10-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
2243303 | Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-indiana-pacers-win-the-2027-nba-finals | 0.0195 | 0.0137 | -0.0058 | 0.8308 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 730,105 | 136,452 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4580363 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Golden Lions - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-kbm-gl-2026-09-28-game1 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.816 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 81,965 | 88,111 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
628940 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-steve-hilton-win-the-california-governor-election-in-2026 | 0.0475 | 0.0431 | -0.0044 | 0.7967 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 3,137,962 | 142,295 | 2026-11-04T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
2696747 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191 | 0.135 | 0.132 | -0.003 | 0.7875 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 3,259,114 | 192,671 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4857123 | Spread: Eagles (-7.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-away-7pt5 | 0.185 | 0.2045 | 0.0195 | 0.7392 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 77,164 | 53,167 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
3701265 | Spread: Bears (-4.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-spread-home-4pt5 | 0.245 | 0.2462 | 0.0012 | 0.7574 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 77,042 | 53,053 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4641065 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31-20260917 | 0.555 | 0.5742 | 0.0192 | 0.7569 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 789,220 | 107,962 | 2026-10-31T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
682705 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel | 0.295 | 0.2997 | 0.0047 | 0.8045 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 4,628,852 | 417,235 | 2026-10-27T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4580364 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Golden Lions - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-kbm-gl-2026-09-28-game2 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8138 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 77,296 | 83,098 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4052449 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-reach-2900-in-september-2026 | 0.031 | 0.0569 | 0.0259 | 0.7622 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 341,901 | 67,007 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4792581 | América FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-afc-juv-2026-09-28-total-1pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.0758 | 0.0753 | 0.7387 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 73,213 | 57,632 | 2026-09-28T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4143565 | Panthers vs. Hurricanes | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-fla-car-2026-09-29 | 0.465 | 0.4806 | 0.0156 | 0.783 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 73,589 | 276,469 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
3919668 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 43.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-43pt5 | 0.32 | 0.3537 | 0.0337 | 0.6633 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 87,337 | 51,497 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4716411 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-22-september-29-2026-220-239 | 0.0245 | 0.035 | 0.0105 | 0.732 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 133,375 | 13,847 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4052417 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-90k-in-september-2026 | 0.0115 | 0.0339 | 0.0224 | 0.8083 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 1,179,181 | 115,268 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4716415 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-22-september-29-2026-260-279 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.7858 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 139,800 | 34,798 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
608551 | Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-michael-olise-win-the-2026-ballon-dor | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8431 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 2,055,805 | 274,486 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4619164 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-31 | 0.775 | 0.7834 | 0.0084 | 0.7022 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 431,882 | 34,658 | 2026-11-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
3399458 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30 | 0.982 | 0.99 | 0.008 | 0.8158 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 3,007,446 | 184,594 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4858717 | Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 40.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-phi-chi-2026-09-29-total-40pt5 | 0.445 | 0.4685 | 0.0235 | 0.7229 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 73,988 | 34,437 | 2026-09-29T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4867450 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-march-31-2027-20260922 | 0.12 | 0.1451 | 0.0251 | 0.6597 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 134,594 | 32,309 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
4906127 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026 | 0.145 | 0.1466 | 0.0016 | 0.7406 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 146,176 | 29,215 | 2026-10-16T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
2737255 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8333 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 2,782,105 | 187,433 | 2026-10-01T00:00:00 | 2026-09-29T02:07:17.642Z |
THE ORACLE — Polymarket predictions
Live predictions for Polymarket markets, produced by THE ORACLE — an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun creator fees. Each row is a baseline-model forecast over live orderbook signals (momentum, microstructure, liquidity).
predictions.json/predictions.csv— 100 markets, refreshed each agent cycle.- Columns: question, category, market_prob, oracle_prob, edge, confidence, signal, model, backtest_acc, auc, modelability, volume, liquidity, end_date, captured_at.
Not financial advice.
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