Invalid JSON:Unexpected token 'N', ..." "far": NaN,
"... is not valid JSON
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| "contingency": { | |
| "threshold": 0.45, | |
| "hits": 253, | |
| "misses": 68, | |
| "false_alarms": 2401, | |
| "correct_negatives": 6541, | |
| "pod": 0.7882, | |
| "far": 0.9047, | |
| "csi": 0.0929 | |
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| "cost_loss": [ | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.05, | |
| "value": 0.4686 | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.1, | |
| "value": 0.2593 | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.15, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.2, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.25, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.3, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.35, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.4, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.45, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.5, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.55, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.6, | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.7, | |
| "value": -0.0872 | |
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| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.75, | |
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| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.8, | |
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| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.95, | |
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| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "baseline": "logistic + isotonic calibration", | |
| "bss_ci": { | |
| "point": 0.0507, | |
| "ci_lo": -0.0326, | |
| "ci_hi": 0.1106, | |
| "level": 0.95 | |
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| "auc_ci": { | |
| "point": 0.8194, | |
| "ci_lo": 0.7716, | |
| "ci_hi": 0.8579, | |
| "level": 0.95 | |
| }, | |
| "n": 9263, | |
| "base_rate": 0.03465399978408723, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.03418258061989997, | |
| "brier": 0.03175766815315444, | |
| "brier_skill_score": 0.05068086143550643, | |
| "roc_auc": 0.8194438928337762, | |
| "reliability": [ | |
| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.0, | |
| "bin_hi": 0.1, | |
| "n": 8352, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.0157, | |
| "observed_frequency": 0.0178 | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.1, | |
| "bin_hi": 0.2, | |
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| "mean_forecast": 0.1379, | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.2, | |
| "bin_hi": 0.3, | |
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| "mean_forecast": 0.2384, | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.3, | |
| "bin_hi": 0.4, | |
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| "observed_frequency": 0.0227 | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.4, | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.5, | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.7, | |
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| { | |
| "bin_lo": 0.9, | |
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| "mean_forecast": 1.0, | |
| "observed_frequency": 0.2 | |
| } | |
| ], | |
| "contingency": { | |
| "threshold": 0.45, | |
| "hits": 18, | |
| "misses": 303, | |
| "false_alarms": 37, | |
| "correct_negatives": 8905, | |
| "pod": 0.0561, | |
| "far": 0.6727, | |
| "csi": 0.0503 | |
| }, | |
| "cost_loss": [ | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.05, | |
| "value": 0.4332 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.1, | |
| "value": 0.28 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.15, | |
| "value": 0.1296 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.2, | |
| "value": 0.0327 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.25, | |
| "value": 0.0177 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.3, | |
| "value": 0.0067 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.35, | |
| "value": -0.0036 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.4, | |
| "value": -0.0052 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.45, | |
| "value": -0.0071 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.5, | |
| "value": -0.0093 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.55, | |
| "value": -0.0121 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.6, | |
| "value": -0.0156 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.65, | |
| "value": -0.02 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.7, | |
| "value": -0.026 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.75, | |
| "value": -0.0343 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.8, | |
| "value": -0.0467 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.85, | |
| "value": -0.0675 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.9, | |
| "value": -0.109 | |
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| { | |
| "cost_loss_ratio": 0.95, | |
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| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ], | |
| "ri_24h_note": "Class weighting is what makes the model find events at a 3.5 percent base rate, and it is also what destroys the calibration. AUC measures the ranking and rises; the Brier Skill Score measures the probabilities and collapses. A monotone isotonic map fitted on held-out storms repairs the second without changing the first, which is why both are reported for all three rows.", | |
| "climatology_auc_note": "The climatology row has an AUC below 0.5, which looks like a broken metric and is not. Under leave-one-season-out the climatology forecast for a season is the base rate of every other season, so removing a high-RI season from the mean lowers the forecast for exactly the season that had the most events. Measured correlation between a season's actual RI rate and its own leave-one-season-out climatology prediction is -0.94. A genuinely constant forecast scores exactly 0.5, which the test suite asserts. Climatology is the Brier Skill Score reference and its AUC carries no information." | |
| }, | |
| "analysis": { | |
| "imd_ci_regression": { | |
| "baseline": "IMD Dvorak CI number, quadratic regression", | |
| "rmse_ci": { | |
| "point": 7.2765, | |
| "ci_lo": 6.2429, | |
| "ci_hi": 8.429, | |
| "level": 0.95 | |
| }, | |
| "caveat": "CI and the best-track intensity label come from the same Dvorak analysis, so this measures the wind-pressure table rather than an independent method. The specified baseline is the CIMSS ADT archive, which was not pulled in this build.", | |
| "n": 6407, | |
| "rmse": 7.276454451426501, | |
| "mae": 4.168637176485335, | |
| "bias": 0.015770672594746737, | |
| "by_intensity": [ | |
| { | |
| "bin": "17-33 kt (D, DD)", | |
| "n": 3487, | |
| "rmse": 3.665405404647403, | |
| "mae": 3.0687293740543864, | |
| "bias": 2.8144772242390514 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "bin": "34-47 kt (CS)", | |
| "n": 1426, | |
| "rmse": 4.371610822185383, | |
| "mae": 3.029980308696313, | |
| "bias": -1.7602708398243156 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "bin": "48-63 kt (SCS)", | |
| "n": 551, | |
| "rmse": 10.928723469578236, | |
| "mae": 7.391933972713178, | |
| "bias": -7.19084160816632 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "bin": "64-89 kt (VSCS)", | |
| "n": 544, | |
| "rmse": 15.034763263825726, | |
| "mae": 8.129034498979406, | |
| "bias": -7.972896743808897 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "bin": "90+ kt (ESCS, SuCS)", | |
| "n": 355, | |
| "rmse": 13.931885925720598, | |
| "mae": 7.38523266386036, | |
| "bias": 1.482752762201002 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "independent_truth_subset": { | |
| "status": "absent", | |
| "reason": "NOAA SAR TC Wind was not pulled in this build. No non-Dvorak intensity truth exists here, so no second RMSE is reported.", | |
| "n_cases": 0 | |
| } | |
| } |