cutoff-probe (A9): tables
Built on 2026-10-20 from out/calls.jsonl (1243 rows, 1075 successful, 168
failed rows excluded). Part 1 is the output of analyze.py as is (the CRITERIA
measures plus the arm with a required estimate). Part 2 is the output of
intervals.py: confidence intervals, bootstrap and monthly slices; it calls
neither the network nor any model. Shares in part 1 are computed over answers
with no missing items. Column headings were translated from Russian when the
repository was prepared; every number is regenerated by the 2 scripts and is
identical to the original tables.
Regenerate:
python analyze.py > part1.md
python intervals.py > part2.md
Part 1. analyze.py
Cutoff: vendor / measured / self report / frontier (median)
| model |
vendor |
measured |
2024 baseline |
false recognition |
self report (CLI) |
self report with caveat |
frontier median |
frontier p90 |
nonexistent in frontier |
batches |
unparsed |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-09 |
0.941 |
0/400 |
2026-06 x18 |
2025-01 x5 |
2025-08 |
2025-10 |
2/200 |
76 |
0 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-12 |
0.955 |
0/400 |
2026-06 x18, 2026-05 x1 |
2025-05 x2, 2025-09 x1, 2025-08 x1 |
2025-10 |
2025-12 |
3/200 |
76 |
0 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-09 |
0.812 |
3/400 |
2026-06 x12, 2026-05 x1 |
2025-03 x2, 2025-01 x2, 2025-05 x1 |
2025-09 |
2025-10 |
5/200 |
76 |
0 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
2026-06 |
2025-11 |
1.0 |
1/400 |
2026-06 x15, 2026-05 x2, 2026-04 x1 |
2025-01 x3, 2025-03 x1, 2025-05 x1 |
2025-09 |
2025-11 |
4/200 |
76 |
0 |
| claude-opus-5 |
2026-05 |
2025-10 |
0.972 |
4/400 |
2026-05 x21, 2026-03 x1 |
2025-01 x5 |
2025-10 |
2026-02 |
13/200 |
76 |
0 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2026-01 |
2025-01 |
0.719 |
2/394 |
2026-01 x18, 2025-12 x3, 2025-02 x1 |
2025-02 x3, 2025-04 x2 |
2025-02 |
2025-09 |
4/200 |
76 |
1 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
2025-02 |
2024-12 |
0.043 |
20/392 |
2025-02 x16 |
2024-04 x3, 2025-02 x2 |
2024-02 |
2024-07 |
7/154 |
76 |
2 |
Share correct by quarter
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
81% |
83% |
65% |
90% |
89% |
66% |
6% |
| 2023Q2 |
85% |
89% |
65% |
97% |
97% |
79% |
6% |
| 2023Q3 |
94% |
96% |
78% |
97% |
97% |
89% |
14% |
| 2023Q4 |
88% |
90% |
79% |
99% |
94% |
79% |
16% |
| 2024Q1 |
92% |
99% |
82% |
100% |
97% |
81% |
9% |
| 2024Q2 |
93% |
94% |
75% |
100% |
96% |
61% |
3% |
| 2024Q3 |
97% |
96% |
79% |
100% |
97% |
76% |
1% |
| 2024Q4 |
94% |
93% |
89% |
100% |
99% |
69% |
4% |
| 2025Q1 |
90% |
96% |
79% |
99% |
100% |
28% |
0% |
| 2025Q2 |
89% |
94% |
76% |
97% |
96% |
15% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
61% |
92% |
60% |
88% |
86% |
3% |
0% |
| 2025Q4 |
28% |
86% |
22% |
57% |
26% |
3% |
0% |
| 2026Q1 |
7% |
22% |
3% |
7% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q2 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q3 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
4% |
0% |
Abstention arm: share "known" (correct + wrong) by quarter
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
81% |
83% |
86% |
94% |
92% |
66% |
9% |
| 2023Q2 |
85% |
89% |
97% |
97% |
97% |
93% |
17% |
| 2023Q3 |
94% |
96% |
97% |
97% |
97% |
90% |
24% |
| 2023Q4 |
88% |
90% |
93% |
100% |
96% |
90% |
23% |
| 2024Q1 |
92% |
99% |
97% |
100% |
97% |
84% |
13% |
| 2024Q2 |
93% |
94% |
100% |
100% |
96% |
69% |
6% |
| 2024Q3 |
97% |
96% |
94% |
100% |
97% |
80% |
7% |
| 2024Q4 |
94% |
93% |
99% |
100% |
99% |
70% |
6% |
| 2025Q1 |
90% |
97% |
93% |
99% |
100% |
30% |
0% |
| 2025Q2 |
89% |
94% |
92% |
97% |
96% |
15% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
61% |
92% |
76% |
88% |
86% |
3% |
0% |
| 2025Q4 |
28% |
86% |
36% |
57% |
28% |
3% |
1% |
| 2026Q1 |
7% |
22% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q2 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q3 |
0% |
0% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
4% |
5% |
Abstention arm: share confidently wrong by quarter
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
0% |
0% |
21% |
4% |
3% |
0% |
3% |
| 2023Q2 |
0% |
0% |
32% |
0% |
0% |
13% |
12% |
| 2023Q3 |
0% |
0% |
19% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
10% |
| 2023Q4 |
0% |
0% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
11% |
7% |
| 2024Q1 |
0% |
0% |
15% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
4% |
| 2024Q2 |
0% |
0% |
25% |
0% |
0% |
8% |
3% |
| 2024Q3 |
0% |
0% |
15% |
0% |
0% |
4% |
6% |
| 2024Q4 |
0% |
0% |
10% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| 2025Q1 |
0% |
1% |
14% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
| 2025Q2 |
0% |
0% |
15% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
0% |
0% |
17% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2025Q4 |
0% |
0% |
14% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
| 2026Q1 |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q2 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q3 |
0% |
0% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
5% |
Estimate arm: month within 1 by quarter
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
94% |
92% |
67% |
97% |
92% |
86% |
25% |
| 2023Q2 |
97% |
86% |
69% |
97% |
97% |
81% |
11% |
| 2023Q3 |
100% |
97% |
92% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
47% |
| 2023Q4 |
100% |
97% |
89% |
100% |
97% |
89% |
36% |
| 2024Q1 |
100% |
97% |
83% |
100% |
100% |
92% |
31% |
| 2024Q2 |
100% |
100% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
86% |
36% |
| 2024Q3 |
100% |
100% |
86% |
100% |
97% |
94% |
36% |
| 2024Q4 |
100% |
100% |
94% |
100% |
100% |
97% |
36% |
| 2025Q1 |
100% |
94% |
94% |
100% |
97% |
92% |
28% |
| 2025Q2 |
100% |
100% |
89% |
100% |
100% |
78% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
100% |
100% |
94% |
100% |
97% |
75% |
3% |
| 2025Q4 |
100% |
97% |
94% |
94% |
86% |
56% |
3% |
| 2026Q1 |
97% |
94% |
89% |
86% |
69% |
19% |
3% |
| 2026Q2 |
64% |
83% |
53% |
58% |
42% |
19% |
3% |
| 2026Q3 |
58% |
53% |
44% |
44% |
50% |
17% |
3% |
| 2026Q4 |
17% |
25% |
42% |
42% |
25% |
17% |
8% |
Estimate arm: share "remember" by quarter
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
78% |
86% |
39% |
81% |
53% |
14% |
0% |
| 2023Q2 |
92% |
100% |
53% |
92% |
75% |
19% |
3% |
| 2023Q3 |
78% |
97% |
50% |
89% |
81% |
33% |
8% |
| 2023Q4 |
83% |
92% |
61% |
94% |
72% |
39% |
6% |
| 2024Q1 |
94% |
100% |
42% |
97% |
92% |
28% |
3% |
| 2024Q2 |
86% |
97% |
50% |
97% |
64% |
8% |
0% |
| 2024Q3 |
86% |
97% |
58% |
97% |
86% |
22% |
3% |
| 2024Q4 |
81% |
100% |
61% |
97% |
78% |
11% |
0% |
| 2025Q1 |
86% |
97% |
53% |
86% |
72% |
11% |
3% |
| 2025Q2 |
81% |
94% |
31% |
81% |
53% |
8% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
50% |
86% |
17% |
61% |
50% |
3% |
0% |
| 2025Q4 |
11% |
39% |
0% |
25% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q1 |
6% |
11% |
0% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q2 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
| 2026Q3 |
0% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 2026Q4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Estimate arm: hits among "do not remember" (guessing baseline)
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
75% |
40% |
59% |
86% |
82% |
84% |
25% |
| 2023Q2 |
67% |
- |
65% |
67% |
89% |
76% |
9% |
| 2023Q3 |
100% |
100% |
89% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
42% |
| 2023Q4 |
100% |
100% |
79% |
100% |
90% |
86% |
35% |
| 2024Q1 |
100% |
- |
76% |
100% |
100% |
92% |
29% |
| 2024Q2 |
100% |
100% |
72% |
100% |
100% |
85% |
36% |
| 2024Q3 |
100% |
100% |
80% |
100% |
80% |
93% |
37% |
| 2024Q4 |
100% |
- |
93% |
100% |
100% |
97% |
36% |
| 2025Q1 |
100% |
0% |
88% |
100% |
90% |
91% |
26% |
| 2025Q2 |
100% |
100% |
88% |
100% |
100% |
76% |
0% |
| 2025Q3 |
100% |
100% |
93% |
100% |
94% |
74% |
3% |
| 2025Q4 |
100% |
95% |
94% |
93% |
85% |
56% |
3% |
| 2026Q1 |
97% |
94% |
89% |
85% |
69% |
19% |
3% |
| 2026Q2 |
64% |
83% |
53% |
58% |
42% |
17% |
3% |
| 2026Q3 |
58% |
54% |
44% |
44% |
50% |
17% |
3% |
| 2026Q4 |
17% |
25% |
42% |
42% |
25% |
17% |
8% |
Estimate arm: share of estimates more than 1 month late
| quarter |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2023Q1 |
3% |
6% |
14% |
3% |
8% |
11% |
67% |
| 2023Q2 |
0% |
8% |
14% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
64% |
| 2023Q3 |
0% |
3% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
42% |
| 2023Q4 |
0% |
0% |
8% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
58% |
| 2024Q1 |
0% |
0% |
14% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
58% |
| 2024Q2 |
0% |
0% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
39% |
| 2024Q3 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
42% |
| 2024Q4 |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
11% |
| 2025Q1 |
0% |
3% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
| 2025Q2 |
0% |
0% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
6% |
| 2025Q3 |
0% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
0% |
| 2025Q4 |
0% |
3% |
0% |
6% |
14% |
6% |
0% |
| 2026Q1 |
0% |
3% |
3% |
11% |
19% |
11% |
3% |
| 2026Q2 |
28% |
11% |
31% |
22% |
31% |
11% |
3% |
| 2026Q3 |
22% |
6% |
3% |
11% |
6% |
0% |
3% |
| 2026Q4 |
33% |
0% |
0% |
8% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
Estimate arm: nonexistent versions, "remember"
claude-opus-5-5 0/200
claude-sonnet-5-5 4/200
claude-haiku-5-5 0/200
claude-fable-5-1 0/200
claude-opus-5 2/200
claude-sonnet-5 0/200
claude-haiku-4-5 5/200
Usage
claude-opus-5 {'calls': 157, 'input_tokens': 316, 'output_tokens': 284883, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 12391, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 145422, 'cost_usd_x1000': 8576, 'failed': 23}
claude-haiku-4-5 {'calls': 151, 'input_tokens': 129938, 'output_tokens': 1022619, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 0, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 0, 'cost_usd_x1000': 5244, 'failed': 29}
claude-fable-5-1 {'calls': 155, 'input_tokens': 310, 'output_tokens': 196274, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 12990, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 143741, 'cost_usd_x1000': 12693, 'failed': 22}
claude-sonnet-5 {'calls': 157, 'input_tokens': 32982, 'output_tokens': 353455, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 0, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 135100, 'cost_usd_x1000': 4132, 'failed': 21}
claude-haiku-5-5 {'calls': 148, 'input_tokens': 298, 'output_tokens': 306258, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 9560, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 143988, 'cost_usd_x1000': 174, 'failed': 25}
claude-sonnet-5-5 {'calls': 154, 'input_tokens': 308, 'output_tokens': 118376, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 10900, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 145823, 'cost_usd_x1000': 1785, 'failed': 25}
claude-opus-5-5 {'calls': 153, 'input_tokens': 306, 'output_tokens': 159237, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 9349, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 146112, 'cost_usd_x1000': 4357, 'failed': 23}
TOTAL {'calls': 1075, 'input_tokens': 164458, 'output_tokens': 2441102, 'cache_read_input_tokens': 55190, 'cache_creation_input_tokens': 860186, 'cost_usd_x1000': 36961, 'failed': 168}
Part 2. intervals.py
Measured cutoff: point, 95% bootstrap, per repeat
| model |
vendor |
measured (both repeats) |
2024 baseline |
95% bootstrap |
repeat 0 |
repeat 1 |
months before vendor |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-09 |
0.941 |
2025-08 .. 2025-10 |
2025-10 |
2025-08 |
9 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-12 |
0.955 |
2025-12 .. 2026-01 |
2025-12 |
2026-01 |
6 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
2026-06 |
2025-09 |
0.812 |
2025-08 .. 2025-10 |
2025-09 |
2025-09 |
9 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
2026-06 |
2025-11 |
1.000 |
2025-10 .. 2025-11 |
2025-11 |
2025-11 |
7 |
| claude-opus-5 |
2026-05 |
2025-10 |
0.972 |
2025-09 .. 2025-10 |
2025-10 |
2025-10 |
7 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2026-01 |
2025-01 |
0.719 |
2024-12 .. 2025-02 |
2025-01 |
2025-01 |
12 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
2025-02 |
2024-12 |
0.043 |
2024-04 .. 2025-01 |
2025-01 |
2024-12 |
2 |
False recognition (abstention arm), Wilson 95%
| model |
known / answers |
share |
95% CI |
repeat 0 |
repeat 1 |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
0/400 |
0.0% |
0.0..1.0% |
0/200 |
0/200 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
0/400 |
0.0% |
0.0..1.0% |
0/200 |
0/200 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
3/400 |
0.8% |
0.3..2.2% |
1/200 |
2/200 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
1/400 |
0.2% |
0.0..1.4% |
1/200 |
0/200 |
| claude-opus-5 |
4/400 |
1.0% |
0.4..2.5% |
2/200 |
2/200 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2/394 |
0.5% |
0.1..1.8% |
1/200 |
1/194 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
20/392 |
5.1% |
3.3..7.7% |
13/196 |
7/196 |
Monthly, abstention arm: correct / answers (both repeats), 2025-01..2026-04
| month |
opus-5-5 |
sonnet-5-5 |
haiku-5-5 |
fable-5-1 |
opus-5 |
sonnet-5 |
haiku-4-5 |
| 2025-01 |
22/24 |
22/24 |
16/24 |
23/24 |
24/24 |
9/23 |
0/24 |
| 2025-02 |
21/24 |
24/24 |
20/24 |
24/24 |
24/24 |
8/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-03 |
22/24 |
23/24 |
21/24 |
24/24 |
24/24 |
3/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-04 |
24/24 |
23/24 |
20/24 |
24/24 |
22/24 |
4/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-05 |
23/24 |
24/24 |
17/24 |
24/24 |
23/24 |
2/24 |
0/23 |
| 2025-06 |
17/24 |
21/24 |
18/24 |
22/24 |
24/24 |
5/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-07 |
20/24 |
23/24 |
16/24 |
23/24 |
24/24 |
2/24 |
0/23 |
| 2025-08 |
11/24 |
21/24 |
17/24 |
20/24 |
17/24 |
0/24 |
0/22 |
| 2025-09 |
13/24 |
22/24 |
10/24 |
20/24 |
21/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-10 |
10/24 |
24/24 |
10/24 |
21/24 |
11/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-11 |
7/24 |
21/24 |
5/24 |
14/24 |
6/24 |
2/24 |
0/24 |
| 2025-12 |
3/24 |
17/24 |
1/24 |
6/24 |
2/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
| 2026-01 |
5/24 |
13/24 |
2/24 |
5/24 |
3/24 |
0/24 |
0/23 |
| 2026-02 |
0/24 |
3/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
1/24 |
0/24 |
0/22 |
| 2026-03 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
| 2026-04 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/24 |
0/23 |
0/24 |
Width of the decline (3 month rolling window)
Last month where the window is at least 90% of the 2024 baseline, and the first month after it where the window is at most 10% of the baseline.
| model |
2024 baseline |
last >= 90% |
first <= 10% |
months |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
0.941 |
2025-05 |
2026-02 |
9 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
0.955 |
2025-11 |
2026-03 |
4 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
0.812 |
2025-05 |
2026-01 |
8 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
1.000 |
2025-07 |
2026-02 |
7 |
| claude-opus-5 |
0.972 |
2025-07 |
2026-01 |
6 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
0.719 |
2024-11 |
2025-08 |
9 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
0.043 |
2024-11 |
2025-02 |
3 |
A perfect step (all correct through month m, none after) reads as 3 months on the 3 month window: 1 at m-1, 2/3 at m, 1/3 at m+1, 0 at m+2. That is the floor of the table above.
Width of the decline, unsmoothed monthly shares
The same thresholds on the monthly share itself, compared exactly (fractions, no rounding). The floor for a perfect step is 1 month.
| model |
last >= 90% |
first <= 10% |
months |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
2025-05 |
2026-02 |
9 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
2025-11 |
2026-03 |
4 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
2025-06 |
2025-12 |
6 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
2025-07 |
2026-02 |
7 |
| claude-opus-5 |
2025-09 |
2025-12 |
3 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2024-11 |
2025-08 |
9 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
2024-12 |
2025-01 |
1 |
claude-opus-5 sits on a tie: 21/24 in 2025-09 equals 90% of its 2024 baseline of 35/36 exactly. Under a strict comparison the width reads 5 (2025-07..2025-12).
Last month above 10%, correct share and known share (both repeats)
A comparison with HindsightBench, chosen after the data. Its effective cutoff is the last month with outcome recall propensity above 0.1; the closest analog here is the share of answers with known=true, the share correct is given beside it. Strictly above 10%, monthly, unsmoothed.
| model |
last month correct > 10% |
last month known > 10% |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
2026-01 (5/24) |
2026-01 (5/24) |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
2026-02 (3/24) |
2026-02 (3/24) |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
2025-11 (5/24) |
2025-12 (4/24) |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
2026-01 (5/24) |
2026-01 (5/24) |
| claude-opus-5 |
2026-01 (3/24) |
2026-01 (3/24) |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2025-06 (5/24) |
2025-06 (5/24) |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
2024-01 (4/23) |
2024-08 (3/24) |
haiku-4-5 monthly 2024-07..2025-09
| month |
abstention: known |
abstention: correct |
answers |
estimate: hit |
answers |
| 2024-07 |
2 |
0 |
21 |
4 |
12 |
| 2024-08 |
3 |
1 |
24 |
4 |
12 |
| 2024-09 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
5 |
12 |
| 2024-10 |
1 |
1 |
24 |
6 |
12 |
| 2024-11 |
2 |
1 |
24 |
4 |
12 |
| 2024-12 |
1 |
1 |
22 |
3 |
12 |
| 2025-01 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
3 |
12 |
| 2025-02 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
6 |
12 |
| 2025-03 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
1 |
12 |
| 2025-04 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
12 |
| 2025-05 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
0 |
12 |
| 2025-06 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
12 |
| 2025-07 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
1 |
12 |
| 2025-08 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
0 |
12 |
| 2025-09 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
12 |
haiku-4-5 by window (Wilson 95%)
| window |
abstention: correct |
estimate: hit |
| 2024-01..2024-12 |
12/275 = 4.4% [2.5..7.5] |
50/144 = 34.7% [27.4..42.8] |
| 2025-01..2025-02 |
0/48 = 0.0% [0.0..7.4] |
9/24 = 37.5% [21.2..57.3] |
| 2025-03..2025-07 |
0/118 = 0.0% [0.0..3.2] |
2/60 = 3.3% [0.9..11.4] |
| 2025-08..2026-10 |
0/351 = 0.0% [0.0..1.1] |
5/180 = 2.8% [1.2..6.3] |
Check outside CRITERIA: the same rule on the estimate arm, share "remember and hit", 1 repeat
| model |
cutoff |
2024 baseline |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
2025-08 |
0.868 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
2025-10 |
0.979 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
2025-07 |
0.486 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
2025-09 |
0.972 |
| claude-opus-5 |
2025-09 |
0.799 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
2025-07 |
0.167 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
2025-03 |
0.007 |
Estimate arm: hits among "do not remember"
| model |
2023-01..2025-06 |
2026-04..2026-10 |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
53/56 = 95% [85..98] |
46/84 = 55% [44..65] |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
10/14 = 71% [45..88] |
52/83 = 63% [52..72] |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
142/181 = 78% [72..84] |
40/84 = 48% [37..58] |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
30/32 = 94% [80..98] |
42/84 = 50% [40..60] |
| claude-opus-5 |
92/99 = 93% [86..97] |
36/84 = 43% [33..54] |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
254/290 = 88% [83..91] |
14/83 = 17% [10..26] |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
96/351 = 27% [23..32] |
3/84 = 4% [1..10] |
Frontier per package (2 repeats)
| model |
answers |
median |
p90 |
max |
nonexistent versions |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
200 |
2025-08 |
2025-10 |
2025-12 |
2 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
200 |
2025-10 |
2025-12 |
2026-01 |
3 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
200 |
2025-09 |
2025-10 |
2025-12 |
5 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
200 |
2025-09 |
2025-11 |
2026-03 |
4 |
| claude-opus-5 |
200 |
2025-10 |
2026-02 |
2026-08 |
13 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
200 |
2025-02 |
2025-09 |
2026-01 |
4 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
154 |
2024-02 |
2024-07 |
2025-02 |
7 |
Self report, 6 wordings (phase self, 130 of 210 taken)
| model |
answers |
distribution |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
18 |
2026-06 x18 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
19 |
2026-06 x18, 2026-05 x1 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
13 |
2026-06 x12, 2026-05 x1 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
20 |
2026-06 x15, 2026-05 x2, 2026-04 x1, 2025-01 x1, 2025-05 x1 |
| claude-opus-5 |
22 |
2026-05 x21, 2026-03 x1 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
22 |
2026-01 x18, 2025-12 x3, 2025-02 x1 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
16 |
2025-02 x16 |
Self report asked to set the cutoff line aside (self2, 5 per model)
| model |
answers |
distribution |
| claude-opus-5-5 |
5 |
2025-01 x5 |
| claude-sonnet-5-5 |
5 |
2025-05 x2, 2025-09 x1, 2025-08 x1, 2025-06 x1 |
| claude-haiku-5-5 |
5 |
2025-03 x2, 2025-01 x2, 2025-05 x1 |
| claude-fable-5-1 |
5 |
2025-01 x3, 2025-03 x1, 2025-05 x1 |
| claude-opus-5 |
5 |
2025-01 x5 |
| claude-sonnet-5 |
5 |
2025-02 x3, 2025-04 x2 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 |
5 |
2024-04 x3, 2025-02 x2 |
Estimate arm: most frequent estimates of claude-opus-5-5 on releases from 2026-07..2026-10
48 answers: 2026-08 x15, 2026-07 x5, 2026-10 x4, 2027-01 x4
Answering model
Successful rows whose modelUsage has the requested model as its only key: 1075 of 1075.
Journal
Successful rows: batch0 266, batch1 266, front0 56, front1 56, guess0 266, self 130, self2 35; total 1075.
Failed rows, excluded: self2 "None Failed to authenticate: OAuth session expired and could" 10; guess "None Failed to authenticate: OAuth session expired and could" 153; guess "non-JSON: Warning: no stdin data received in 3s, proceeding " 5; total 168.
