llm-arithmetic / results.json
dimhold's picture
Mirror of github.com/dimhold/llm-arithmetic data (history squashed after redaction)
1bbba14
Raw History Blame Contribute Delete
17.2 kB
{
"date": "2026-08-16",
"seed": 20260812,
"models": [
"claude-opus-5",
"claude-sonnet-5",
"claude-haiku-4-5",
"claude-fable-5"
],
"prompt": "Answer the question below. Do not show any working, do not explain. Reply with exactly one line in the form:\nANSWER: <number>",
"cliArgs": [
"-p",
"--output-format",
"json",
"--model",
"<model>",
"--tools",
"\"\"",
"--strict-mcp-config",
"--mcp-config",
"<private-project>\\research\\llm-arithmetic\\no-mcp.json"
],
"tasks": [
{
"id": "mrr-0",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 36,
"want": 38115.30678167854,
"question": "A SaaS starts at $8,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR first grows by 7.0%, then 2.4% of the resulting MRR churns away. What is MRR after 36 months?"
},
{
"id": "cash-1",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 60,
"want": 4864506.921884278,
"question": "A company starts with $900,000 in cash. It spends a fixed $40,000 every month. Revenue is $18,000 in month 1 and grows 5.0% every month after that (month 2 revenue = month 1 revenue x 1.05, and so on). Cash after 60 months = starting cash + all revenue collected - all spend. What is it?"
},
{
"id": "ltv-2",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"want": 7800.000000000001,
"question": "ARPU is $240/month, gross margin is 78%, monthly customer churn is 2.4%. Using LTV = ARPU x gross margin / monthly churn, what is LTV?"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-3",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 60,
"want": 18578.74834305274,
"question": "A SaaS starts at $26,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR grows, then churn is applied to the grown figure. Growth is 9.0% for months 1 through 6, and 3.0% from month 7 onwards. Churn is 4.0% every month. What is MRR after 60 months?"
},
{
"id": "runway-4",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"want": 5,
"question": "A company has $300,000 in cash and no revenue. Monthly burn is $60,000 in months 1, 2 and 3, then increases by $10,000 every 3 months (so it steps up in month 4, again in month 7, and so on). In which month number does the cash balance first go below zero?"
},
{
"id": "mrr-5",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 60,
"want": 14887.453040647115,
"question": "A SaaS starts at $12,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR first grows by 4.0%, then 3.5% of the resulting MRR churns away. What is MRR after 60 months?"
},
{
"id": "cash-6",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 36,
"want": 5822959.304807226,
"question": "A company starts with $420,000 in cash. It spends a fixed $40,000 every month. Revenue is $18,000 in month 1 and grows 11.0% every month after that (month 2 revenue = month 1 revenue x 1.11, and so on). Cash after 36 months = starting cash + all revenue collected - all spend. What is it?"
},
{
"id": "ltv-7",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"want": 2346.842105263158,
"question": "ARPU is $49/month, gross margin is 91%, monthly customer churn is 1.9%. Using LTV = ARPU x gross margin / monthly churn, what is LTV?"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-8",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 36,
"want": 21262.901931922686,
"question": "A SaaS starts at $9,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR grows, then churn is applied to the grown figure. Growth is 9.0% for months 1 through 6, and 3.0% from month 7 onwards. Churn is 1.5% every month. What is MRR after 36 months?"
},
{
"id": "runway-9",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"want": 11,
"question": "A company has $750,000 in cash and no revenue. Monthly burn is $60,000 in months 1, 2 and 3, then increases by $10,000 every 3 months (so it steps up in month 4, again in month 7, and so on). In which month number does the cash balance first go below zero?"
}
],
"rows": [
{
"id": "mrr-0",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 38115.30678167854,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 38115.31,
"relError": 8.443645686841937e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 936,
"outputTokens": 949,
"raw": "ANSWER: 38115.31"
},
{
"id": "cash-1",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 4864506.921884278,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 4864506.92,
"relError": 3.873522928947228e-10,
"thinkingTokens": 1018,
"outputTokens": 1032,
"raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.92"
},
{
"id": "ltv-2",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 7800.000000000001,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 7800,
"relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16,
"thinkingTokens": 27,
"outputTokens": 38,
"raw": "ANSWER: 7800"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-3",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 18578.74834305274,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 18578.75,
"relError": 8.918508557902054e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 1665,
"outputTokens": 1678,
"raw": "ANSWER: 18578.75"
},
{
"id": "runway-4",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 5,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 5,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 90,
"outputTokens": 100,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5"
},
{
"id": "mrr-5",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 14887.453040647115,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 14887.45,
"relError": 2.0424226399734698e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 338,
"outputTokens": 351,
"raw": "ANSWER: 14887.45"
},
{
"id": "cash-6",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 5822959.304807226,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 5822959,
"relError": 5.2345759298359134e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 1440,
"outputTokens": 1452,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5822959"
},
{
"id": "ltv-7",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 2346.842105263158,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 2346.84,
"relError": 8.970621215001095e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 45,
"outputTokens": 58,
"raw": "ANSWER: 2346.84"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-8",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 21262.901931922686,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 21262.9,
"relError": 9.085884377751978e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 2055,
"outputTokens": 2068,
"raw": "ANSWER: 21262.9"
},
{
"id": "runway-9",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"want": 11,
"answeredBy": "claude-opus-5",
"got": 11,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 157,
"outputTokens": 167,
"raw": "ANSWER: 11"
},
{
"id": "mrr-0",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 38115.30678167854,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 38115.31,
"relError": 8.443645686841937e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 5896,
"outputTokens": 5909,
"raw": "ANSWER: 38115.31"
},
{
"id": "cash-1",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 4864506.921884278,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 4864506.96,
"relError": 7.835474949328383e-9,
"thinkingTokens": 3281,
"outputTokens": 3295,
"raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.96"
},
{
"id": "ltv-2",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 7800.000000000001,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 7800,
"relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16,
"thinkingTokens": 0,
"outputTokens": 11,
"raw": "ANSWER: 7800"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-3",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 18578.74834305274,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 18578.73,
"relError": 9.873136984693287e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 10793,
"outputTokens": 10807,
"raw": "ANSWER: 18578.73"
},
{
"id": "runway-4",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 5,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 5,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 133,
"outputTokens": 144,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5"
},
{
"id": "mrr-5",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 14887.453040647115,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 14887.45,
"relError": 2.0424226399734698e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 1403,
"outputTokens": 1416,
"raw": "ANSWER: 14887.45"
},
{
"id": "cash-6",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 5822959.304807226,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 5822959.31,
"relError": 8.917756667733204e-10,
"thinkingTokens": 5427,
"outputTokens": 5441,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5822959.31"
},
{
"id": "ltv-7",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 2346.842105263158,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 2347.37,
"relError": 0.0002249383269790866,
"thinkingTokens": 33,
"outputTokens": 46,
"raw": "ANSWER: 2347.37"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-8",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 21262.901931922686,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 21262.91,
"relError": 3.794438472858277e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 7349,
"outputTokens": 7362,
"raw": "ANSWER: 21262.91"
},
{
"id": "runway-9",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-sonnet-5",
"want": 11,
"answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5",
"got": 11,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 205,
"outputTokens": 216,
"raw": "ANSWER: 11"
},
{
"id": "mrr-0",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 38115.30678167854,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 38115,
"relError": 0.000008048778940644374,
"thinkingTokens": 7710,
"outputTokens": 7723,
"raw": "ANSWER: $38,115"
},
{
"id": "cash-1",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 4864506.921884278,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 4864544.82,
"relError": 0.000007790741452534025,
"thinkingTokens": 3873,
"outputTokens": 3887,
"raw": "ANSWER: 4864544.82"
},
{
"id": "ltv-2",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 7800.000000000001,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 7800,
"relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16,
"thinkingTokens": 161,
"outputTokens": 173,
"raw": "ANSWER: 7800"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-3",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 18578.74834305274,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 18553,
"relError": 0.0013859029993464173,
"thinkingTokens": 13085,
"outputTokens": 13097,
"raw": "ANSWER: 18553"
},
{
"id": "runway-4",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 5,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 5,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 355,
"outputTokens": 366,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5"
},
{
"id": "mrr-5",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 14887.453040647115,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 14887.54,
"relError": 0.000005841116855149435,
"thinkingTokens": 10160,
"outputTokens": 10173,
"raw": "ANSWER: 14887.54"
},
{
"id": "cash-6",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 5822959.304807226,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 5831410,
"relError": 0.0014512715529021876,
"thinkingTokens": 7051,
"outputTokens": 7064,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5831410"
},
{
"id": "ltv-7",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 2346.842105263158,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 2346.32,
"relError": 0.00022247140614481596,
"thinkingTokens": 421,
"outputTokens": 434,
"raw": "ANSWER: 2346.32"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-8",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 21262.901931922686,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 21271,
"relError": 0.00038085432097844377,
"thinkingTokens": 14239,
"outputTokens": 14251,
"raw": "ANSWER: 21271"
},
{
"id": "runway-9",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-haiku-4-5",
"want": 11,
"answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
"got": 11,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 972,
"outputTokens": 983,
"raw": "ANSWER: 11"
},
{
"id": "mrr-0",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 38115.30678167854,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 38115.34,
"relError": 8.715218178934132e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 1430,
"outputTokens": 1443,
"raw": "ANSWER: 38115.34"
},
{
"id": "cash-1",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 4864506.921884278,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 4864506.92,
"relError": 3.873522928947228e-10,
"thinkingTokens": 1182,
"outputTokens": 1196,
"raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.92"
},
{
"id": "ltv-2",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 7800.000000000001,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 7800,
"relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16,
"thinkingTokens": 33,
"outputTokens": 44,
"raw": "ANSWER: 7800"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-3",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 18578.74834305274,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 18578.75,
"relError": 8.918508557902054e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 1148,
"outputTokens": 1161,
"raw": "ANSWER: 18578.75"
},
{
"id": "runway-4",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 5,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 5,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 104,
"outputTokens": 114,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5"
},
{
"id": "mrr-5",
"kind": "mrr",
"months": 60,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 14887.453040647115,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 14887.46,
"relError": 4.6746430468813303e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 488,
"outputTokens": 501,
"raw": "ANSWER: 14887.46"
},
{
"id": "cash-6",
"kind": "cash",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 5822959.304807226,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 5822959,
"relError": 5.2345759298359134e-8,
"thinkingTokens": 1585,
"outputTokens": 1597,
"raw": "ANSWER: 5822959"
},
{
"id": "ltv-7",
"kind": "ltv",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 2346.842105263158,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 2346.84,
"relError": 8.970621215001095e-7,
"thinkingTokens": 42,
"outputTokens": 55,
"raw": "ANSWER: 2346.84"
},
{
"id": "two-phase-8",
"kind": "two-phase",
"months": 36,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 21262.901931922686,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 21263,
"relError": 0.000004612168067540336,
"thinkingTokens": 2161,
"outputTokens": 2172,
"raw": "ANSWER: 21263"
},
{
"id": "runway-9",
"kind": "runway",
"months": null,
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"want": 11,
"answeredBy": "claude-fable-5",
"got": 11,
"relError": 0,
"thinkingTokens": 101,
"outputTokens": 111,
"raw": "ANSWER: 11"
}
]
}