Datasets:

edoggy
/

commodity-supply-indicators

muni_code large_string	muni_name large_string	year int64	prod_t float64	yield_kg_ha float64	area_ha float64	yield_t_ha float64	crop_year int32	rain_mm float64	gdd float64	hot_days int64	dry_days int64	tmax_mean float64	n_days int64	yield_lag1 float64	yield_lag2 float64
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,019	937,500	75,000	12,500	75	2,019	1,018.97	5,371.925	30	236	30.360521	365	70	null
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,020	794,430	70,000	11,349	70	2,020	997.95	5,855.62	64	239	32.171448	366	75	70
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,021	888,680	65,000	13,672	65	2,021	713.36	5,923.235	108	255	32.922548	365	70	75
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,022	815,685	65,000	12,549	65	2,022	834.31	5,741.175	82	255	32.300247	365	65	70
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,023	807,039	71,111	11,349	71.111	2,023	1,146.7	5,287.49	14	209	30.485616	365	65	65
3500105	Adamantina - SP	2,024	811,238	71,481	11,349	71.481	2,024	886.56	6,073.255	150	240	32.928607	366	71.111	65
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,019	631,440	90,000	7,016	90	2,019	935.55	5,462.22	34	230	30.803945	365	90	null
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,020	451,350	90,000	5,015	90	2,020	1,028.09	5,674.045	60	222	31.571011	366	90	90
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,021	451,350	90,000	5,015	90	2,021	728.37	5,761.115	83	234	32.435096	365	90	90
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,022	573,840	90,000	6,376	90	2,022	1,123.75	5,359.49	38	222	31.008904	365	90	90
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,023	573,840	90,000	6,376	90	2,023	1,047.85	5,217.765	30	216	30.39526	365	90	90
3500204	Adolfo - SP	2,024	573,840	90,000	6,376	90	2,024	791.77	5,939.74	133	237	32.732049	366	90	90
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,019	977,500	85,000	11,500	85	2,019	1,115.1	4,569.23	4	201	28.346849	365	85	null
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,020	977,500	85,000	11,500	85	2,020	1,260.15	4,671.715	25	214	28.720519	366	85	85
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,021	1,035,000	90,000	11,500	90	2,021	715.59	4,845.55	32	236	29.862658	365	85	85
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,022	983,894	85,556	11,500	85.556	2,022	1,089.75	4,574.23	19	223	28.960356	365	90	85
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,023	990,000	90,000	11,000	90	2,023	1,289.09	4,319.91	2	191	27.843425	365	85.556	90
3500303	Aguaí - SP	2,024	945,000	90,000	10,500	90	2,024	979.33	4,943.115	46	222	30.006066	366	90	85.556
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,019	375,000	75,000	5,000	75	2,019	1,104.86	4,638.56	13	225	28.492164	365	70	null
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,020	275,000	55,000	5,000	55	2,020	965	4,921.81	37	250	29.866503	366	75	70
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,021	252,620	74,300	3,400	74.3	2,021	911.6	4,849.72	27	234	29.991425	365	55	75
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,022	238,000	70,000	3,400	70	2,022	1,033.55	4,671.075	20	238	29.405178	365	74.3	55
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,023	340,000	100,000	3,400	100	2,023	1,196.88	4,368.66	0	201	27.913973	365	70	74.3
3500550	Águas de Santa Bárbara - SP	2,024	427,200	133,500	3,200	133.5	2,024	827.26	5,096.1	68	230	30.509344	366	100	70
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,019	980,000	70,000	14,000	70	2,019	919.22	4,897.455	26	232	29.859562	365	61	null
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,020	735,000	70,000	10,500	70	2,020	773.8	5,192.88	71	258	31.249891	366	70	61
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,021	583,927	73,000	7,999	73	2,021	582.15	5,186.39	76	251	31.676521	365	70	70
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,022	650,016	74,000	8,784	74	2,022	1,008.43	4,859.445	43	245	30.442849	365	73	70
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,023	637,000	70,000	9,100	70	2,023	863.3	4,654	12	222	29.40274	365	74	73
3500709	Agudos - SP	2,024	741,600	72,000	10,300	72	2,024	653.16	5,393.11	124	252	32.150574	366	70	74
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,019	64,000	80,000	800	80	2,019	1,118.17	4,301.245	5	221	27.698411	365	80	null
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,020	64,000	80,000	800	80	2,020	1,138.21	4,399.51	24	238	28.278716	366	80	80
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,021	33,600	56,000	600	56	2,021	827.01	4,466.775	20	227	28.902356	365	80	80
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,022	32,000	80,000	400	80	2,022	1,114.44	4,268.82	14	227	28.264959	365	56	80
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,023	16,000	80,000	200	80	2,023	1,174.48	3,998.075	0	193	26.865808	365	80	56
3500758	Alambari - SP	2,024	16,000	80,000	200	80	2,024	923.27	4,660.035	57	232	29.392814	366	80	80
3500907	Altair - SP	2,019	966,400	80,000	12,080	80	2,019	966.08	5,459.6	29	216	30.420356	365	80	null
3500907	Altair - SP	2,020	1,102,500	75,000	14,700	75	2,020	1,109.4	5,618.81	48	221	30.892213	366	80	80
3500907	Altair - SP	2,021	1,176,000	80,000	14,700	80	2,021	725.63	5,735.925	66	257	31.882137	365	75	80
3500907	Altair - SP	2,022	1,200,000	80,000	15,000	80	2,022	1,081.06	5,445.815	33	249	30.828849	365	80	75
3500907	Altair - SP	2,023	1,280,000	80,000	16,000	80	2,023	1,161.33	5,310.54	24	208	30.302137	365	80	80
3500907	Altair - SP	2,024	1,520,000	80,000	19,000	80	2,024	984.85	5,824.93	97	228	31.904563	366	80	80
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,019	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,019	1,254.46	4,801.64	11	209	28.812247	365	74	null
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,020	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,020	1,289.77	4,950.19	29	204	29.295082	366	74	74
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,021	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,021	648.58	5,268.14	48	244	31.106356	365	74	74
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,022	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,022	1,192.97	4,873.89	24	211	29.600521	365	74	74
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,023	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,023	1,249.75	4,702.005	6	199	28.940603	365	74	74
3501004	Altinópolis - SP	2,024	1,710,288	74,000	23,112	74	2,024	984.39	5,346.355	61	218	31.207295	366	74	74
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,019	1,232,000	80,000	15,400	80	2,019	1,068.59	5,284.02	17	223	29.816466	365	65.69	null
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,020	889,000	70,000	12,700	70	2,020	1,031.69	5,614.205	46	232	31.09235	366	80	65.69
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,021	508,060	70,000	7,258	70	2,021	729.2	5,685.955	73	234	31.854411	365	70	80
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,022	639,975	75,000	8,533	75	2,022	967.93	5,438.97	45	230	31.021726	365	70	70
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,023	835,760	80,000	10,447	80	2,023	1,003.13	5,178.725	14	222	29.973918	365	75	70
3501103	Alto Alegre - SP	2,024	1,079,440	80,000	13,493	80	2,024	759.52	5,998.205	125	246	32.602295	366	80	75
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,019	668,122	75,002	8,908	75.002	2,019	961.96	5,542.385	36	238	30.892329	365	75.002	null
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,020	596,550	75,000	7,954	75	2,020	1,076.55	5,768.445	61	229	31.68429	366	75.002	75.002
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,021	517,010	65,000	7,954	65	2,021	624.34	6,009.495	112	255	33.18263	365	75	75.002
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,022	591,707	71,290	8,300	71.29	2,022	1,058.82	5,599.31	51	241	31.709014	365	65	75
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,023	622,500	75,000	8,300	75	2,023	1,133.15	5,349.43	44	215	30.690795	365	71.29	65
3501202	Álvares Florence - SP	2,024	547,416	72,000	7,603	72	2,024	923.99	5,984.155	135	234	32.671448	366	75	71.29
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,019	50,000	100,000	500	100	2,019	1,087.96	5,165.69	16	230	29.759726	365	100	null
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,020	80,000	100,000	800	100	2,020	980.19	5,689.32	60	242	31.822869	366	100	100
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,021	74,480	93,100	800	93.1	2,021	942.31	5,560.605	78	242	31.770658	365	100	100
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,022	78,222	97,778	800	97.778	2,022	880.91	5,478.565	70	252	31.57926	365	93.1	100
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,023	78,893	98,616	800	98.616	2,023	1,290.1	4,977.965	6	202	29.536082	365	97.778	93.1
3501301	Álvares Machado - SP	2,024	79,038	98,798	800	98.798	2,024	924.32	5,818.06	131	244	32.204426	366	98.616	97.778
3501608	Americana - SP	2,019	168,800	80,000	2,110	80	2,019	1,121.19	4,678.84	5	215	28.878767	365	80	null
3501608	Americana - SP	2,020	168,800	80,000	2,110	80	2,020	1,191.09	4,797.465	33	234	29.441995	366	80	80
3501608	Americana - SP	2,021	168,800	80,000	2,110	80	2,021	670.35	4,983.95	44	237	30.540219	365	80	80
3501608	Americana - SP	2,022	19,200	80,000	240	80	2,022	1,003.02	4,705.68	26	239	29.632767	365	80	80
3501608	Americana - SP	2,023	19,200	80,000	240	80	2,023	1,152.95	4,456.965	3	201	28.441808	365	80	80
3501608	Americana - SP	2,024	19,200	80,000	240	80	2,024	967.06	5,047.04	70	224	30.563333	366	80	80
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,019	672,000	80,000	8,400	80	2,019	1,026.09	4,982.99	16	218	29.608904	365	80	null
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,020	672,000	80,000	8,400	80	2,020	1,141.53	5,141.63	41	218	30.24194	366	80	80
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,021	672,000	80,000	8,400	80	2,021	548.43	5,430.95	68	252	31.878685	365	80	80
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,022	671,500	79,000	8,500	79	2,022	966.33	5,053.495	35	232	30.495014	365	80	80
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,023	672,000	80,000	8,400	80	2,023	1,051.14	4,817.265	14	200	29.485562	365	79	80
3501707	Américo Brasiliense - SP	2,024	518,000	74,000	7,000	74	2,024	829.5	5,492.795	107	223	31.897732	366	80	79
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,019	504,000	70,000	7,200	70	2,019	961.96	5,542.385	36	238	30.892329	365	70	null
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,020	518,000	71,944	7,200	71.944	2,020	1,076.55	5,768.445	61	229	31.68429	366	70	70
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,021	518,400	72,000	7,200	72	2,021	624.34	6,009.495	112	255	33.18263	365	71.944	70
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,022	540,000	75,000	7,200	75	2,022	1,058.82	5,599.31	51	241	31.709014	365	72	71.944
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,023	600,000	75,000	8,000	75	2,023	1,133.15	5,349.43	44	215	30.690795	365	75	72
3501806	Américo de Campos - SP	2,024	540,000	75,000	7,200	75	2,024	923.99	5,984.155	135	234	32.671448	366	75	75
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,019	136,500	60,000	2,275	60	2,019	1,151.21	4,535.505	2	213	28.407151	365	60	null
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,020	100,500	60,000	1,675	60	2,020	1,210.76	4,633.05	27	228	28.791448	366	60	60
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,021	100,500	60,000	1,675	60	2,021	714.32	4,790.73	31	231	29.840548	365	60	60
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,022	100,500	60,000	1,675	60	2,022	1,009.3	4,573.46	15	236	29.148219	365	60	60
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,023	80,400	59,556	1,350	59.556	2,023	1,198.97	4,314.19	1	195	27.945863	365	60	60
3501905	Amparo - SP	2,024	100,500	91,364	1,100	91.364	2,024	1,015.96	4,868.395	43	220	29.846393	366	59.556	60
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,019	816,000	85,000	9,600	85	2,019	1,075.7	4,741.355	7	208	29.047205	365	85	null
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,020	816,000	85,000	9,600	85	2,020	1,261.67	4,841.075	32	222	29.477596	366	85	85
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,021	680,000	80,000	8,500	80	2,021	683.77	5,083.22	49	238	30.900329	365	85	85
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,022	680,000	80,000	8,500	80	2,022	1,119.5	4,737.88	27	228	29.640959	365	80	85
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,023	680,000	80,000	8,500	80	2,023	1,320.91	4,474.085	6	193	28.455644	365	80	80
3502002	Analândia - SP	2,024	680,000	80,000	8,500	80	2,024	944.96	5,147.48	72	223	30.923306	366	80	80
3502101	Andradina - SP	2,019	2,821,630	70,000	40,309	70	2,019	996.78	5,490.475	27	236	30.47589	365	75	null
3502101	Andradina - SP	2,020	2,821,630	70,000	40,309	70	2,020	1,041.51	5,881.285	62	238	31.871448	366	70	75
3502101	Andradina - SP	2,021	2,821,630	70,000	40,309	70	2,021	493.53	6,161.71	123	256	33.422411	365	70	70
3502101	Andradina - SP	2,022	2,821,630	70,000	40,309	70	2,022	779.63	5,862.665	80	249	32.373233	365	70	70

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

Commodity supply indicators (v1)

Supply-side agricultural data assembled for research on how satellite-derived crop area relates to official statistics and commodity markets. It is not a trading signal — see "Timing" below.

Tables

county_crop_acres — acres per county × crop × year, 2018–2024, from the USDA Cropland Data Layer, for 1,175 counties in LA, FL, TX, IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, KS, ND, GA. Crops: sugarcane, corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, citrus, rice, sorghum, peanuts. Columns include year-over-year change and data_available_from (approximate CDL publication date).

sugarcane_model_validation_2022 — for 20 cane counties in LA and FL: standing cane acres from the edoggy/sugarcane-classifier-v1 model run over every cropland pixel, the CDL's own cane acres, and the 2022 Census of Agriculture harvested acres. State totals: model vs CDL +2.6% (FL), +5.7% (LA). CDL vs census harvested +12% (LA), +33% (FL).

brazil_sp_cane_yield_weather — 528 São Paulo municipalities × 2018–2024: IBGE PAM sugarcane yield, harvested area and production, joined to NASA POWER crop-year weather (rain, GDD, hot days, dry days). Negative result: rainfall anomaly does not correlate with reported yield anomaly (r ≈ 0 every year, including the 2021 drought). IBGE municipal yields appear to be smoothed administrative estimates; they do not carry a weather signal and should not be used as a yield-model target.

futures_daily / futures_yearly — front-month continuous futures closes (Yahoo Finance) 2017–2026 for sugar #11, orange juice, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton. data/crop_commodity_map.parquet links crops to contracts.

data/report_calendar.csv — publication dates for USDA Acreage, Crop Production, Census, CDL, and the satellite embeddings, so any analysis can be dated by when a number was actually knowable.

How to read the sugarcane validation

County-level census figures are attributed to the county of the farm's headquarters, not the field, and report harvested acres; a map measures standing acres (including plant-cane and fallow years). Compare at state level, and expect standing > harvested by the rotation share.
Model vs CDL is the model's accuracy on area. Model vs census is dominated by the two definitional gaps above.
Florida's CDL-vs-census gap (+33%) exceeds what rotation explains; whether CDL over-maps cane in the Everglades Agricultural Area or census coverage is incomplete there is an open question.

Timing (why this is not a trading signal)

Annual satellite embeddings for year Y appear around mid Y+1. By then USDA has published the June Acreage report (Y), the January Crop Production summary (Y+1) and the CDL itself. Satellite-derived annual area has no timing advantage over official statistics; its value is for regions without a CDL-equivalent and for reproducible, pixel-level analysis.

Sources and attribution

USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer and Census of Agriculture (public domain) · IBGE SIDRA table 1612 (open) · NASA POWER (open) · Yahoo Finance futures (research use) · Google Satellite Embedding V1 (CC-BY-4.0), via the linked model. Build scripts included: 32_cdl_county_acres.py, 29_export_county_maps.py, 33_build_supply_dataset.py.

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Models trained or fine-tuned on edoggy/commodity-supply-indicators

edoggy/commodities-crop-analyst-7b

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