| --- |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| language: |
| - en |
| tags: |
| - time-series |
| - forecasting |
| - chronos |
| - patch-aliasing |
| - bayesian |
| size_categories: |
| - 10K<n<100K |
| --- |
| |
| # Patch-Aliasing Bayesian Analysis Data |
|
|
| Raw and processed data from the Bayesian analysis of structural patch-aliasing in Chronos-Bolt Tiny. |
| Companion to the model weights at [`federicosabbadini/chronos-bolt-patch-aliasing-models`](https://huggingface.co/federicosabbadini/chronos-bolt-patch-aliasing-models). |
|
|
| ## Structure |
|
|
| ``` |
| clean_15model/ # 15 preregistered (P,S) configurations |
| full_22model/ # all 22 configurations (adds 7 robustness checks) |
| h1_fixed_offset/ # supplementary H1 analysis with fixed offset |
| ``` |
|
|
| Each run folder contains: |
|
|
| - `01_prior_spec.json` / `.parquet` — prior specification |
| - `03_recovery.parquet` — parameter recovery test |
| - `04_*.nc` — MCMC trace files (NetCDF/ArviZ InferenceData) |
| - `05_diagnostics.parquet` — convergence diagnostics |
| - `05_sensitivity.parquet` — prior sensitivity analysis |
| - `05_verdicts.parquet` — hypothesis verdicts |
| - `data/` — input data (contrasts, collapse profiles, MDL cells, sites) |
| - `data/signals/` — generated probe signals |
| - `figures/` — analysis figures (prior predictive, forests, combs, PPC, sensitivity) |
| - `run.log` — execution log |
|
|
| ## Models fitted |
|
|
| | ID | Estimand | Hypothesis | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | A | Population forecast attenuation | H1 behavioural | |
| | B | Codelength expansion at locked frequencies | H1 representational | |
| | C | Phase-offset dispersion | H2 | |
| | D1 | Token-collapse grid labelling | H3a (stride branch) | |
| | D2 | Stride-scaling slope | H3a (κ_S) | |
| |
| ## Key results |
| |
| - **H1 behavioural**: inconclusive (forecast contrast 1.08 [0.45, 2.49]) |
| - **H1 representational**: supported on clean (codelength 1.27 [1.23, 1.31]) |
| - **H2 phase invariance**: supported (σ_φ = 0.033, ROPE prob 0.997) |
| - **H3a stride branch**: supported (κ_S = 1.000 [0.992, 1.008]) |
| - **H3b patch branch**: not identified |
| |
| ## Trace file sizes |
| |
| The `.nc` files contain full MCMC traces (4 chains × 2000 draws). Models A and C are large (~8 GB each) due to per-observation random effects; Models B, D1, D2 are smaller (4–730 MB). |
| |
| ## License |
| |
| Apache-2.0 — same as the Chronos models these data derive from. |
| |
