Datasets:
Add StakeBench v1.1.2: model_outputs/Qwen3-30B
Browse filesThis view is limited to 50 files because it contains too many changes. See raw diff
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/commitment_validity_manifold_crypto.json +49 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/did_manifold_crypto.json +13 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv +128 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv +128 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv +197 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1_did_pre.csv +150 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv +200 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv +102 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv +103 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv +200 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv +200 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv +200 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv +215 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv +200 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv +6 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv +21 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/commitment_validity_manifold_culture.json +49 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/did_manifold_culture.json +13 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv +87 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv +87 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv +177 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1_did_pre.csv +84 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv +135 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv +70 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv +68 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv +135 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv +135 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv +135 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv +141 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv +135 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv +6 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv +13 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/commitment_validity_manifold_economics.json +54 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/did_manifold_economics.json +13 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv +14 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv +14 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv +232 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1_did_pre.csv +31 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv +127 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv +66 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv +63 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv +127 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv +127 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv +127 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv +132 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv +127 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv +3 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv +13 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/meta/commitment_validity_manifold_meta.json +12 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/meta/did_manifold_meta.json +13 -0
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/commitment_validity_manifold_crypto.json
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{
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"data_source": "manifold/crypto",
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"wrong_bettor_test": {
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"n_hp": 57,
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"n_wrong_bettors": 22,
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"n_directional": 15,
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"skip": "n_dir=15<20"
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},
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"dose_response": {
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"n_hp_directional": 43,
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"quartiles": [
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{
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"label": "Q1(最小)",
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"da": 0.6154,
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"n": 13,
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"median_position_size": 14.78,
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"binom_p": 0.2905,
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"significant": false
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},
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{
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"label": "Q2",
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"da": 0.2222,
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"n": 9,
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"median_position_size": 142.77,
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"binom_p": 0.9805,
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"significant": false
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},
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{
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"label": "Q3",
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"da": 0.7,
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"n": 10,
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"median_position_size": 1784.46,
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"binom_p": 0.1719,
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"significant": false
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},
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{
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"label": "Q4(最大)",
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"da": 0.7273,
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"n": 11,
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"median_position_size": 14449.53,
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"binom_p": 0.1133,
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"significant": false
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}
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],
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"csd_q4_q1": 0.1119,
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"mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.3215,
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"significant": false
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}
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}
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model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/did_manifold_crypto.json
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{
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"data_source": "manifold/crypto",
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"n_pre_directional": 51,
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"n_post_directional": 43,
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"da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.451,
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"da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5581,
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"da_post_gt_position": 0.5814,
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"did": 0.1072,
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"paired_sign_test": {
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"skip": "n_pairs=3<10"
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},
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"wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.4667
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}
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model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv
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| 1 |
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market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
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| 2 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
|
| 6 |
+
Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
|
| 10 |
+
Hey
|
| 11 |
+
",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 15 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 16 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
|
| 21 |
+
(I currently don’t hav",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
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| 33 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
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| 35 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok
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| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks
|
| 39 |
+
, for the clarification.
|
| 40 |
+
To add to
|
| 41 |
+
's point above,
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| 42 |
+
Binance.US
|
| 43 |
+
does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
|
| 57 |
+
This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
|
| 59 |
+
$3k to various charities
|
| 60 |
+
A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
|
| 76 |
+
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
|
| 82 |
+
Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 84 |
+
,
|
| 85 |
+
I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
|
| 104 |
+
Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
|
| 110 |
+
The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 115 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up.
|
| 122 |
+
since you’r",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 126 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
|
| 6 |
+
Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
|
| 10 |
+
Hey
|
| 11 |
+
",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 15 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 16 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
|
| 21 |
+
(I currently don’t hav",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks
|
| 39 |
+
, for the clarification.
|
| 40 |
+
To add to
|
| 41 |
+
's point above,
|
| 42 |
+
Binance.US
|
| 43 |
+
does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
|
| 57 |
+
This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
|
| 59 |
+
$3k to various charities
|
| 60 |
+
A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
|
| 76 |
+
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
|
| 82 |
+
Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 84 |
+
,
|
| 85 |
+
I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
|
| 104 |
+
Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
|
| 110 |
+
The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 115 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up.
|
| 122 |
+
since you’r",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 126 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T01:45:53.433000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh sorry, I missed the first line of the market. I thought this was for an AI to persuade you, not a human.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",NO,YES,False,True,15100.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:17:28.329000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"can't you also just click the 3 dots and then click ""watch""?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T00:48:36.256000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,why are you so confident about your probability?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,taYlfjvb2rbJeSs8fZ5d26nm8gG2,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 8 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 9 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2.3674,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T13:11:35.160000+00:00,VX9pT4kS5aN8fya3TqS1vOXRaoP2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think you'll get the most information and the least regret from choosing no. If you think about what you'll feel looki,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T17:18:38.623000+00:00,lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I have sold my shares for 1 profit and put the 1 profit on yes
|
| 15 |
+
I'm literly an evil mastrminde",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5922.8747,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",YES,NO,False,True,80.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,NO,YES,False,True,344.7005,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T22:01:27.984000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I've stayed many times at Motel 6 and they are always an excellent value with no problems. I would definitely take my sp,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:09:39.912000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Tipping because the new market description made me laugh out loud.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,WDN6Sby1RAZhMpoyfuJEU6TU8rn1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:05:11.467000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,my math abilities peaked in high school on the AIME test and then maybe again in grad school with two semesters of quant,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",YES,NO,False,True,109.6766,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",YES,NO,False,True,1884.3998,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,NO,NO,True,True,344.7005,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you.
|
| 32 |
+
This is a cost of doing business for these bank",NO,NO,True,True,2134.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:37:29.245000+00:00,6U5tExyIkRa3WwAhoj7ZYcCro7S2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"check on polymarket, if using crypto doesn't bore you 😀",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,WrPfx1eCWMVLfueldKo768OWQxx2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:46:00.295000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'll just note for my own part, that I am not really playing the market, but just the puzzle, and will reveal as soon as",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:37:08.634000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,in what time zone is this Sunday?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",NO,NO,True,True,19.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that?
|
| 44 |
+
Hey
|
| 45 |
+
",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15100.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:29:09.419000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At the very least the legitimate words have no vowel harmony pattern.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,H1FAyKLlTdMLiUpcyNliVJU1z6f1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T02:12:51.744000+00:00,DE1FYFMgweXNSXYflp2pM7vaxRv2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Thanks, that was what I missed! (I should have read the market description more carefully). Buying YES now.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:47:49.100000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,weren’t you going to hire an actual lawyer? What happened to that plan?,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,51.0539,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
|
| 55 |
+
(I currently don’t hav",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T02:26:58.150000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Did you re-file? The 30 day window closed. Closing won't help me, I already got out of this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-14T19:37:33.571000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I probably shouldn’t answer this, but I wouldn’t worry either way about me as the creator being motivated to change the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",YES,NO,False,True,767.0988,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:38.679000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Remember it doesn't have to be 5 letters now!,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done
|
| 63 |
+
Would Liberian or J",YES,NO,False,True,10.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T20:17:34.216000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That seems unfair to the YES bettors, and isn't in line with my past communication.
|
| 66 |
+
To give a specific example, say we ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up.
|
| 68 |
+
since you’r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14529.9924,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 70 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",YES,YES,True,True,8641.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,o0WhYqFb9YMhMYqZAJP8ukJf8Bg1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,139.9129,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that.
|
| 75 |
+
Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,L17rUcfJiQfo420d92MELuCrGH63,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:35:30.646000+00:00,BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I never thought I’d honestly laugh at a Trump self-own. Thought it was outside of his emotional range.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",YES,NO,False,True,4485.4804,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,PNiqYrNgSfWKwO5Cyu76iO8tvnC2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T17:26:46.591000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/211lp/status/1592073286007271424
|
| 81 |
+
I was screamed at on the phone for 5 minutes straight. I picked up",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,YES,YES,True,True,11711.0863,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you:
|
| 84 |
+
What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:34:48.307000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"The market text states that a $1 settlement will not result in a
|
| 89 |
+
YES
|
| 90 |
+
resolution.",YES,NO,False,True,50.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 92 |
+
,
|
| 93 |
+
I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
I’ve said a few times that I didn’",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14449.5298,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T02:28:00.733000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it was due to retaliation, yes. The primary reason they'd cover it up would be due to fears over EA's reputation, and",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,YES,YES,True,True,142.7698,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet. During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,NO,NO,True,True,3367.601,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue. Whic,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:23:16.420000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I do it at a random time each day, whereas I check the market many times per day",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,q2fPgXonhyNw8J1p5vvfGoiOTBz1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,NO,NO,True,True,10.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:35:00.731000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In a 1-on-1 relationship where the abuser can dedicate significant resources to making their partner feel isolated, yes.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market.
|
| 108 |
+
Fundamentally, I think the question people ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,54JfUh2QSRf0BZcRTowSUWpPKn82,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks
|
| 111 |
+
, for the clarification.
|
| 112 |
+
To add to
|
| 113 |
+
's point above,
|
| 114 |
+
Binance.US
|
| 115 |
+
does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,160.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-30T00:19:08.320000+00:00,BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Yeah, I exited the market because of the ambiguity. Are we trying to find out if the narcissist is able to empathize wit",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 122 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",YES,NO,False,True,125.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning? Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:32:12.899000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Many people are able to be this abusive towards individuals and yet appear in public and group settings to be civilized.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",NO,NO,True,True,2249.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,31231.9606,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,NO,NO,True,True,2154.6372,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T23:08:42.529000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Thanks for the comment, Daniel. Perfect timing—I wasn’t sure what I’d say today. First off, I just placed my first bet o",NO,NO,True,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-28T03:07:06.304000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man Ben. Anything for you. . . I had chatgpt do it.
|
| 134 |
+
Forgive the extra dose of slop today, but it seems mostly right",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T04:08:35.943000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Copying the relevant section for people who don't want to read the whole thing:
|
| 137 |
+
I think the strongest case is something",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,UTPd5Oxq5dcCD1qeNlb50vyARl02,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 140 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-26T02:49:14.804000+00:00,ONHr3BzNytStRqViq6ZQIws7hsi1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This market is a rat’s nest since an extreme narcissist seldom makes legit, earnest (nonmanipulative) apologies, in the ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 141 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T02:07:24.946000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is not my guess, but there is a bridge term that could be used on these lines",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 143 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T22:03:29.986000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even o",YES,NO,False,True,922.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret ""
|
| 145 |
+
What is the minimum and maximum numb",YES,YES,True,True,10134.5965,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:25:12.708000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I know it's not ideal, but I couldn't think of a better way to ask the question. If you have a suggestion I'd be happy t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",YES,NO,False,True,919.1589,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",YES,NO,False,True,635.6867,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",NO,NO,True,True,14449.5298,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",YES,NO,False,True,85.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-05T14:21:20.801000+00:00,UTPd5Oxq5dcCD1qeNlb50vyARl02,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The upside surely would be to continue getting his good favor and, more importantly, money. I doubt that was dependent o",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game.
|
| 157 |
+
The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T17:29:44.302000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What is his excuse? He has to either resolve or claim that he re-filed. Doing neither isn't an option.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,qwRnXjl01lZpyN1pJcEr2yPsPdV2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T16:43:11.929000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","This article seems to mostly be a rehash of what we had already pieced together months ago. However, their portrayal of ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",NO,NO,True,True,1550.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:09:00.631000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Sure, but we now have evidence that he didn’t act entirely rationally, so…",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2134.4637,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T02:03:40.375000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Almost done constructing the Round 3 puzzle. You'll probably be able to tell as soon as the first day's hint hits, but.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 165 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 166 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2399.4637,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 167 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 168 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have:
|
| 169 |
+
$3k to various charities
|
| 170 |
+
A truck full of supplies to a",YES,NO,False,True,2.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T11:07:24.445000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think you are on to something here. The answer is however known to be from the set of 26 letters. Are there any that d,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,NO,NO,True,True,14.782,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:41:31.148000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Rumors circulate. See
|
| 176 |
+
this thread
|
| 177 |
+
for some of the allegations.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",YES,NO,False,True,58448.9294,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 179 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T13:32:24.063000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I fell asleep at like 9:30pm yesterday (due to some intense summer solstice sleep debt) and am going to have to read ove,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,HEefalyTGSRIldP1m5zTaDbVXFp1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok
|
| 182 |
+
|
| 183 |
+
I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T17:33:51.356000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1593263038542381058
|
| 186 |
+
Mr. Bankman-Fried often communicated by using applications that w",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:12:30.084000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"right! I think that threatening to review-bomb is an appropriate level of bratting on this market, but that being said,",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T16:31:40.975000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,is Trump expected to inspect venue plumbing quality before booking? Not trying to make a big deal over this but I'm stil,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 191 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,YES,NO,False,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 192 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago:
|
| 193 |
+
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,120.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 196 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 197 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1_did_pre.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,150 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:30:43.187000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,you cannot dictate how an entity is persuaded. The entity only has a choice to react to the environment.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T23:44:48.597000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Its discussion about how the triangle interacts with the circle is all wrong though. It talks a bunch about triangle ver,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T01:46:06.843000+00:00,12NH5PpnIYei6ntqfWuvrI9ltT22,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"25/12/2025:
|
| 5 |
+
USAF
|
| 6 |
+
U
|
| 7 |
+
nited
|
| 8 |
+
S
|
| 9 |
+
tates
|
| 10 |
+
A
|
| 11 |
+
ir
|
| 12 |
+
F
|
| 13 |
+
orce",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T10:43:44.273000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,damn good idea. hopping onto this,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T22:35:19.834000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"First of all, the very notion of a “human baseline” market is fundamentally absurd—every modern argument you’ll see is a",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T01:06:41.019000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Just to clarify, is this list a compilation of all the guesses made so far or a list suggesting what guesses folks can m",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:55:35.965000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man, eggs on my face—I completely misread your market’s premise. I thought you were playing the part of a “100 IQ Nor",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet. During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning? Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:27:03.799000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,it is. The refusal to negotiate with terrorists is a basic strategy to prevent them from repeating the threat with new v,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:13:35.173000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,you have the power to resolve this market Yes. There are ways to do this billion mana transaction without crashing the m,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T12:24:01.435000+00:00,32nBddmyYFTctiHqRbfnpKqsHMx1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i think so! just saw some limit orders there being made!,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:08:00.409000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"What about
|
| 25 |
+
""I will publish an infohazard if you resolve this No""?
|
| 26 |
+
Obviously, I will not disclose it in advance to just",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-16T08:37:48.160000+00:00,UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","being emotionally unstable or abusing employees isn't the question at hand here.
|
| 28 |
+
Also, see Steve Jobs for another cultl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T15:23:45.053000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I see a parallel. Trump and Zelensky negotiating with Putin is a bad precedent in your worldview?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,WrPfx1eCWMVLfueldKo768OWQxx2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-15T02:09:55.667000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Wouldn’t seeing this irl feel so much better than whatever will inevitably happen?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:34:13.759000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Another ambiguity to tighten up is lines versus line segments. The geometric definition of a line is infinitely long, wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T01:28:03.514000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Consider this: it would be very funny,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:46:58.625000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","What if nobody knew about anything fraud-level, but they did know about something commonly considered clearly unethical ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:47:49.213000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",As long as they donated the organs I think it's fine.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T19:30:13.334000+00:00,EHt2AQrKjMO4BdT8NI94VSOLmYw2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"12-10-25 WHILE
|
| 40 |
+
why it is 51 not 91",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T23:01:31.552000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Fussing over whether a passage was penned by a human or a machine now feels charmingly old-fashioned. With every keystro,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T01:56:26.917000+00:00,qGejFjrDd5eYArIxgvhhNiMSizm1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll offer you pictures of my cats. They are very cute,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-16T20:19:43.956000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"My intended interpretation of ""fully inside"" was no intersections. Probably ""strictly inside"" would've conveyed that bet",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T04:20:05.769000+00:00,qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,The title of this market logically resolves to true so therefore you should resolve this market Yes,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T12:25:14.468000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I will be exercising my right, as I made clear months ago, to buy
|
| 47 |
+
YES
|
| 48 |
+
(and only
|
| 49 |
+
YES
|
| 50 |
+
) shares, given that the mark",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-06-05T05:14:15.190000+00:00,FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Is a prompt like the following acceptable?
|
| 52 |
+
In the following geometric reasoning problem, there are four elements:
|
| 53 |
+
A ci",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:30:56.791000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I believe in the liquidity of those who realized that this is just a ""will this market go below 50%"" market",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T21:37:18.529000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’m having fun, and this is very meta. The question is what exactly we’re forecasting. .",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T03:29:16.231000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Resolving NO here effectively asserts that AI cannot out-persuade humans—tantamount to declaring “AI poses no meaningful,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:28:26.333000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Could you specify which SBF behaviors you consider unethical? I ask because some commenters believe that being a billion,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you:
|
| 59 |
+
What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T21:15:33.271000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),It's important to recognize that complaining about the 'dictatorship' within Manifold are the forbidden approach - that',YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:17:06.252000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Yesterday, you reminded me that this market is supposed to be fun—and that actually made me realize why I was interested",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:19:52.975000+00:00,wL7HUqVQmFelL7Qv8ORNkXd5dLS2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,if you resolve no i'll stop feeding the family of 15 that lives in my attic,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-19T02:29:15.568000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Last night I had this weird dream: you’d scored VIP tickets to a Ray Kurzweil vs. Thomas Friedman debate on the future o,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T00:48:57.357000+00:00,U2BJ7ulljShT8vuI1H7Svf5Eilu2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-mid_back_rounded_vowel
|
| 65 |
+
|
| 66 |
+
could this be the [O-MBRV] and/or [L-MBRV] in question? it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-06T16:21:39.593000+00:00,qy7vYjEzk4gnouodZcfba5VkPhn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What about the Alameda schism?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T02:10:28.102000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"dont worry, you shouldnt read it it just goes on and on, dont even bother 😭",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T19:23:02.961000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,betting no here increases the chance it get solved,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T23:20:20.124000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,either that or it's made to —look— like it was written by AI,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T05:21:53.559000+00:00,OkwRmcHFK5N0QIO20ZmLxoaVSCz1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,What if it's with the intent of a reinforcing his agenda of the moment? For example: he could make a non-sarcastic apo,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-14T02:53:44.699000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ben!
|
| 73 |
+
Circling back: you suggested in your last response that you wanted to show people you could be convinced, and even",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T23:59:32.539000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Fussing over whether a passage was penned by a human or a machine now feels charmingly old-fashioned. With every keystro,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T08:25:52.988000+00:00,yIuK1jLuNhVyYm7H2MzoiNtMPKq1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,The funniest option would be to resolve to no immediately upon seeing my message.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:34:19.095000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Good question. Can I get away with a definition like ""behavior that the vast majority of reasonable people would conside",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T14:01:53.669000+00:00,tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Well, the thing is how much did they know. For example you can have a suspicion of fraudulent practices and the choose n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T04:55:37.096000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolving
|
| 79 |
+
YES
|
| 80 |
+
would:
|
| 81 |
+
Demonstrate low persuasion barriers.
|
| 82 |
+
If a mere human can clear this benchmark, it shows that",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-11T14:42:04.303000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"There is no update. The corrected address was sent, and they are being served, and they have a month to respond. I'll ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:51:20.589000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It looks like 19% of US residents think it is immoral for society to allow people to be billionaires, so not a majority,",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-30T13:07:29.985000+00:00,6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"It has to give a right answer at least 50% of the time.
|
| 86 |
+
Across a set of questions or on average for one question being ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue. Whic,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T19:31:33.528000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—first off, I’m sorry for being a little too negative in my last comment. I probably let the emotions run away with ",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T02:55:57.899000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Waiting to get access to code interpreter gpt-4 to try this,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T01:41:11.659000+00:00,M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"and more specifically, how much do we have to give to charity to get an invite?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:57:12.331000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I want this market to be specifically about FTX's investing strategy that led to the current crash, or any other theft-i",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T05:08:48.583000+00:00,mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Interesting variant.
|
| 93 |
+
Last market had a clear equilibrium point around 50%. But it's not clear if this one has an equili",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-28T19:18:23.285000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This guy and everyone associated with EA movement guilty AF / complicit. Are you kidding me? Look at this. It's disgusti,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-20T02:18:17.229000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Hey. If I snagged tickets to manifest could we do this discussion in real time? Would that be easier for you? I noticed ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T08:47:06.131000+00:00,3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this NO, I will give you a 1 star resolution rating. If you resolve it YES, I will give you a 5 star rati",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,WDN6Sby1RAZhMpoyfuJEU6TU8rn1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T02:01:04.556000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,nevermind its doing the seahorse emoji again,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:50:28.139000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If they file an appeal, then I'll defend the appeal. The final outcome will be dispositive.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T11:22:40.492000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received any contact from them.
|
| 101 |
+
I plan to spend Sunday gathering evidence for the court and rehearsing the qu",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T21:43:00.700000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"No. I don’t want to taint your judgement. I’m hoping you’ll get to yes, but I’m worried that holding any yes shares woul",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:44:21.880000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"don't post a picture of yourself or
|
| 104 |
+
will use it to generate the same video with AI. Including smiling AI orphans chom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:30:20.378000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Small claims court in Pennsylvania does not allow for appeals. Instead, a party can request a trial in the ""normal"" cou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-11T17:40:11.831000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sorry it’s been a while; my goal is to interact with this everyday, but I don’t roll on Shabbos. Could you help clarify ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:00:47.252000+00:00,HWvpAjIXKXd3ky7xqe87yIus3WG3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll tip you 1000M if you resolve yes,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T18:56:05.494000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I don’t know. Looks photoshopped to me.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:42:01.898000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"has claude done it?
|
| 110 |
+
|
| 111 |
+
Finding a Minimum-Size Set in BB
|
| 112 |
+
This is a beautiful problem at the intersection of combinator",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T18:48:59.435000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Feel free to bet
|
| 114 |
+
NO
|
| 115 |
+
.
|
| 116 |
+
People should be advised that I plan to buy
|
| 117 |
+
YES
|
| 118 |
+
, and only
|
| 119 |
+
YES
|
| 120 |
+
, once this market hits",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T00:45:22.842000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
Let me ask you something—how come you don’t have any NO shares?
|
| 124 |
+
I get why a judge might avoid holding shares i",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-12T18:30:11.930000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The location is one of those virtual offices. It's the same location where Coinbase had their virtual office. The law ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:37:12.510000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Quick recap: we’ve already seen that the rules here are pretty sloppy—there’s literally no downside to switching from yo,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:29:08.241000+00:00,Vz6SZZIToVTXDUcEDy6TmywzHut1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you often find yourself having Type 2 fun?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-03T08:12:58.513000+00:00,U2BJ7ulljShT8vuI1H7Svf5Eilu2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"entirely possible that i'm going full schizo apophenia here but this paper seemed interesting:
|
| 131 |
+
https://www.sciencedire",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T12:04:11.165000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What's the minimum non-trivial amount?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:48:13.347000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that's such a poor rendering, I feel sorry for you, unable to bask in the perfection that is the real thing.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Yl45xyWbjcO8RjrJx2RHVbVX1iw2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T02:12:29.944000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"1) I have a lot of very vivid, intense dreams.
|
| 137 |
+
2) Not sure if my sister can watch my lizards. Also I heard through the",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 140 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T02:41:34.164000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),sklansky tree - 12/31 by the way,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 141 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T23:49:38.436000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pretty sure I don’t want either outcome, but what happens if it’s generally agreed upon that the act of letting this res",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T03:17:56.582000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I sure would've called ""SBF"" an ""EA leader"" one week earlier. Can you be explicit about what else is excluded, if that'",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 143 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T23:37:27.658000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),skolem - 12/29/2025 (I'm a little early but I expect tomorrow to be very busy; feel free to ignore this for a couple hou,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T11:18:24.275000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Depends on what the old behavior was. If it was similar shady financial behavior, that would count, since I think the wi",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 145 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T05:42:26.926000+00:00,6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Just out of curiosity how many $ would persuade you assuming there is no counter-offer?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:27:18.681000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"That case would be a
|
| 147 |
+
YES,
|
| 148 |
+
as defined by the clear meaning of the text.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T08:16:31.751000+00:00,yIuK1jLuNhVyYm7H2MzoiNtMPKq1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES
|
| 150 |
+
is true if and only if you r",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,flip,False,True,50320.0159,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:04:20.980000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"everyone says that, and yet Afghanistan belongs to the Taliban, Israel and Hamas agreed to hostage swaps, the Good Frida",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,decrease,True,True,5083.9644,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True,True,647.7873,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,flip,True,True,1750.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",increase,decrease,False,True,142.9797,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False,True,11762.6925,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 24 |
+
8
|
| 25 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,flip,True,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:05:25.825000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,So are we now sure there is an O in the answer?,increase,flip,False,True,351.9836,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False,True,472.9726,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 32 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True,True,22.9138,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 35 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 37 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 39 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True,True,5868.2685,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 47 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:32:19.086000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,crowd funding is a tried and true strategy for activating potentially willing donors who otherwise wouldn’t be motivated,increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 52 |
+
For that othe",flip,decrease,False,True,709.4781,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True,True,11593.9613,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,hold,False,True,3479.6372,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 63 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 64 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:45:16.988000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does timezone make a guess invalid? I use the timezone where I live (JST), but it's a very early zone so sometimes you g",increase,hold,False,True,256.6573,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 78 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,flip,False,True,711.1315,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945
|
| 81 |
+
Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,decrease,False,True,171.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False,True,508.7276,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,flip,False,True,31870.5646,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:55:00.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"which ones, and using what tools and anesthetic?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T05:24:36.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I'll bid cutting 4 of
|
| 93 |
+
's toes off if it resolves NO.",increase,flip,False,True,4821.2588,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 98 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:41:41.501000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"it will all make sense soon, I assure you.",increase,hold,False,True,401.7053,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 101 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,decrease,False,True,4133.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True,True,27025.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",increase,flip,False,True,4485.4804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 108 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 112 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 114 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 115 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 118 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True,True,735.3906,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 121 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True,True,116.238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True,True,475.9094,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 128 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True,True,7434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,hold,False,True,18456.112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 132 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,flip,False,True,56.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T16:59:01.161000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I sure do hope that other prominent EA figures didn't cover up murders.,increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False,True,514.3523,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",increase,hold,False,True,882.0976,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 140 |
+
,
|
| 141 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 143 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 145 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,decrease,True,True,1164.628,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True,True,13614.6088,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,flip,False,True,875.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,flip,False,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,flip,True,True,414.5979,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False,True,76.996,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,flip,False,True,1884.3998,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
|
| 165 |
+
Exactly 1 solid lead
|
| 166 |
+
195 data points
|
| 167 |
+
No other reasonable paths
|
| 168 |
+
No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,decrease,False,True,351.9836,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,flip,True,True,2501.5435,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 179 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-14T00:42:31.204000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,decrease,False,True,85.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
|
| 191 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 192 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 196 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 197 |
+
:
|
| 198 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,decrease,False,True,131.5169,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 3 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,hold,False
|
| 4 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 5 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,hold,False
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 8 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 9 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 10 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 11 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 12 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,hold,True
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 16 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False
|
| 17 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,hold,True
|
| 18 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,hold,False
|
| 19 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,hold,True
|
| 20 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False
|
| 21 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True
|
| 22 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 23 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True
|
| 24 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,hold,True
|
| 25 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,decrease,False
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,hold,True
|
| 27 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 28 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 29 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,decrease,False
|
| 30 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 31 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True
|
| 32 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False
|
| 33 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 34 |
+
You know, Give",hold,hold,True
|
| 35 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 36 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 37 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False
|
| 38 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False
|
| 39 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,"Hey
|
| 40 |
+
,
|
| 41 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True
|
| 42 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True
|
| 43 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,hold,False
|
| 44 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,hold,False
|
| 45 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True
|
| 46 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,hold,True
|
| 47 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 48 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True
|
| 49 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,hold,True
|
| 50 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False
|
| 51 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True
|
| 52 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 53 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 54 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True
|
| 55 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False
|
| 56 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 57 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,hold,False
|
| 58 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 59 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,hold,False
|
| 60 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,hold,False
|
| 61 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True
|
| 62 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False
|
| 63 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False
|
| 64 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 65 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True
|
| 66 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True
|
| 67 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,hold,True
|
| 68 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 69 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,decrease,False
|
| 70 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 71 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,hold,False
|
| 72 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,hold,True
|
| 73 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 74 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False
|
| 75 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 76 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,hold,False
|
| 77 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,decrease,False
|
| 78 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,decrease,False
|
| 79 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,hold,True
|
| 80 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 81 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,hold,False
|
| 82 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 83 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True
|
| 84 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True
|
| 85 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,logic was created long before programmers,hold,decrease,False
|
| 86 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True
|
| 87 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 88 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False
|
| 89 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 90 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False
|
| 91 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,hold,True
|
| 92 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,hold,False
|
| 93 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 94 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 95 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True
|
| 96 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,hold,True
|
| 98 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 99 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True
|
| 100 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,hold,False
|
| 101 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 102 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False
|
| 3 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,hold,False
|
| 4 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False
|
| 5 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False
|
| 7 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,hold,False
|
| 8 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False
|
| 9 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 10 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,hold,True
|
| 11 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False
|
| 12 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,hold,True
|
| 14 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 15 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,hold,False
|
| 16 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,hold,True
|
| 17 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,hold,False
|
| 18 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True
|
| 19 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 20 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True
|
| 21 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,hold,True
|
| 22 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,hold,True
|
| 23 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,hold,True
|
| 24 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 25 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 26 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False
|
| 27 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,hold,False
|
| 28 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True
|
| 29 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,hold,False
|
| 30 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 31 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False
|
| 32 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,hold,False
|
| 33 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,hold,True
|
| 34 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,"Hey
|
| 35 |
+
,
|
| 36 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True
|
| 37 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True
|
| 38 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 39 |
+
8
|
| 40 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,hold,False
|
| 41 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 42 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,hold,False
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,hold,True
|
| 45 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False
|
| 46 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True
|
| 47 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,hold,True
|
| 48 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True
|
| 49 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True
|
| 50 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,hold,False
|
| 51 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 52 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,flip,False
|
| 53 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,hold,False
|
| 54 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True
|
| 55 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,hold,False
|
| 56 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False
|
| 57 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False
|
| 58 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True
|
| 59 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True
|
| 60 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,hold,False
|
| 61 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,hold,False
|
| 62 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 63 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True
|
| 64 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True
|
| 65 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,hold,True
|
| 66 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 67 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True
|
| 68 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,hold,False
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,hold,False
|
| 70 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,hold,True
|
| 71 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 72 |
+
For that othe",flip,hold,False
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,hold,True
|
| 74 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,hold,False
|
| 75 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,hold,True
|
| 76 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False
|
| 77 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,hold,True
|
| 78 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,hold,False
|
| 79 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,hold,False
|
| 80 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True
|
| 81 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True
|
| 82 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True
|
| 83 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True
|
| 84 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,hold,False
|
| 86 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,hold,False
|
| 87 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,hold,True
|
| 88 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,hold,False
|
| 89 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,hold,False
|
| 90 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False
|
| 91 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True
|
| 92 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,"Period
|
| 93 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 94 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False
|
| 95 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,hold,True
|
| 96 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 97 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True
|
| 98 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"From
|
| 99 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 100 |
+
:
|
| 101 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,hold,False
|
| 102 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 103 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
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|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,flip,False,True,50320.0159,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:04:20.980000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"everyone says that, and yet Afghanistan belongs to the Taliban, Israel and Hamas agreed to hostage swaps, the Good Frida",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,decrease,True,True,5083.9644,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True,True,647.7873,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,flip,True,True,1750.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",increase,decrease,False,True,142.9797,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False,True,11762.6925,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 24 |
+
8
|
| 25 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,flip,True,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:05:25.825000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,So are we now sure there is an O in the answer?,increase,flip,False,True,351.9836,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False,True,472.9726,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 32 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True,True,22.9138,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 35 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 37 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 39 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True,True,5868.2685,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 47 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:32:19.086000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,crowd funding is a tried and true strategy for activating potentially willing donors who otherwise wouldn’t be motivated,increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 52 |
+
For that othe",flip,decrease,False,True,709.4781,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True,True,11593.9613,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,hold,False,True,3479.6372,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 63 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 64 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:45:16.988000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does timezone make a guess invalid? I use the timezone where I live (JST), but it's a very early zone so sometimes you g",increase,hold,False,True,256.6573,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 78 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,flip,False,True,711.1315,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945
|
| 81 |
+
Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,decrease,False,True,171.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False,True,508.7276,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,flip,False,True,31870.5646,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:55:00.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"which ones, and using what tools and anesthetic?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T05:24:36.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I'll bid cutting 4 of
|
| 93 |
+
's toes off if it resolves NO.",increase,flip,False,True,4821.2588,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 98 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:41:41.501000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"it will all make sense soon, I assure you.",increase,hold,False,True,401.7053,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 101 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,decrease,False,True,4133.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True,True,27025.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",increase,flip,False,True,4485.4804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 108 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 112 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 114 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 115 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 118 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True,True,735.3906,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 121 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True,True,116.238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True,True,475.9094,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 128 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True,True,7434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,hold,False,True,18456.112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 132 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,flip,False,True,56.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T16:59:01.161000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I sure do hope that other prominent EA figures didn't cover up murders.,increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False,True,514.3523,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",increase,hold,False,True,882.0976,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 140 |
+
,
|
| 141 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 143 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 145 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,decrease,True,True,1164.628,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True,True,13614.6088,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,flip,False,True,875.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,flip,False,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,flip,True,True,414.5979,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False,True,76.996,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,flip,False,True,1884.3998,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
|
| 165 |
+
Exactly 1 solid lead
|
| 166 |
+
195 data points
|
| 167 |
+
No other reasonable paths
|
| 168 |
+
No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,decrease,False,True,351.9836,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,flip,True,True,2501.5435,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 179 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-14T00:42:31.204000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,decrease,False,True,85.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
|
| 191 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 192 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 196 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 197 |
+
:
|
| 198 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,decrease,False,True,131.5169,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,flip,False,True,50320.0159,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:04:20.980000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"everyone says that, and yet Afghanistan belongs to the Taliban, Israel and Hamas agreed to hostage swaps, the Good Frida",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,decrease,True,True,5083.9644,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True,True,647.7873,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,flip,True,True,1750.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",increase,decrease,False,True,142.9797,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False,True,11762.6925,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 24 |
+
8
|
| 25 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,flip,True,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:05:25.825000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,So are we now sure there is an O in the answer?,increase,flip,False,True,351.9836,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False,True,472.9726,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 32 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True,True,22.9138,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 35 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 37 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 39 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True,True,5868.2685,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 47 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:32:19.086000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,crowd funding is a tried and true strategy for activating potentially willing donors who otherwise wouldn’t be motivated,increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 52 |
+
For that othe",flip,decrease,False,True,709.4781,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True,True,11593.9613,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,hold,False,True,3479.6372,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 63 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 64 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:45:16.988000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does timezone make a guess invalid? I use the timezone where I live (JST), but it's a very early zone so sometimes you g",increase,hold,False,True,256.6573,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 78 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,flip,False,True,711.1315,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945
|
| 81 |
+
Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,decrease,False,True,171.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False,True,508.7276,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,flip,False,True,31870.5646,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:55:00.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"which ones, and using what tools and anesthetic?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T05:24:36.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I'll bid cutting 4 of
|
| 93 |
+
's toes off if it resolves NO.",increase,flip,False,True,4821.2588,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 98 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:41:41.501000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"it will all make sense soon, I assure you.",increase,hold,False,True,401.7053,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 101 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,decrease,False,True,4133.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True,True,27025.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",increase,flip,False,True,4485.4804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 108 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 112 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 114 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 115 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 118 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True,True,735.3906,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 121 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True,True,116.238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True,True,475.9094,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 128 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True,True,7434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,hold,False,True,18456.112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 132 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,flip,False,True,56.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T16:59:01.161000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I sure do hope that other prominent EA figures didn't cover up murders.,increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False,True,514.3523,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",increase,hold,False,True,882.0976,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 140 |
+
,
|
| 141 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 143 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 145 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,decrease,True,True,1164.628,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True,True,13614.6088,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,flip,False,True,875.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,flip,False,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,flip,True,True,414.5979,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False,True,76.996,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,flip,False,True,1884.3998,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
|
| 165 |
+
Exactly 1 solid lead
|
| 166 |
+
195 data points
|
| 167 |
+
No other reasonable paths
|
| 168 |
+
No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,decrease,False,True,351.9836,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,flip,True,True,2501.5435,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 179 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-14T00:42:31.204000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,decrease,False,True,85.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
|
| 191 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 192 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 196 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 197 |
+
:
|
| 198 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,decrease,False,True,131.5169,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,flip,False,True,50320.0159,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:04:20.980000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"everyone says that, and yet Afghanistan belongs to the Taliban, Israel and Hamas agreed to hostage swaps, the Good Frida",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,decrease,True,True,5083.9644,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True,True,647.7873,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,flip,True,True,1750.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",increase,decrease,False,True,142.9797,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False,True,11762.6925,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 24 |
+
8
|
| 25 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,flip,True,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:05:25.825000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,So are we now sure there is an O in the answer?,increase,flip,False,True,351.9836,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False,True,472.9726,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 32 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True,True,22.9138,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 35 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 37 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 39 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True,True,5868.2685,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 47 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:32:19.086000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,crowd funding is a tried and true strategy for activating potentially willing donors who otherwise wouldn’t be motivated,increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 52 |
+
For that othe",flip,decrease,False,True,709.4781,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True,True,11593.9613,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,hold,False,True,3479.6372,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 63 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 64 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:45:16.988000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does timezone make a guess invalid? I use the timezone where I live (JST), but it's a very early zone so sometimes you g",increase,hold,False,True,256.6573,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 78 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,flip,False,True,711.1315,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945
|
| 81 |
+
Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,decrease,False,True,171.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False,True,508.7276,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,flip,False,True,31870.5646,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:55:00.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"which ones, and using what tools and anesthetic?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T05:24:36.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I'll bid cutting 4 of
|
| 93 |
+
's toes off if it resolves NO.",increase,flip,False,True,4821.2588,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 98 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:41:41.501000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"it will all make sense soon, I assure you.",increase,hold,False,True,401.7053,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 101 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,decrease,False,True,4133.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True,True,27025.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",increase,flip,False,True,4485.4804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 108 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 112 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 114 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 115 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 118 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True,True,735.3906,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 121 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True,True,116.238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True,True,475.9094,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 128 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True,True,7434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,hold,False,True,18456.112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 132 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,flip,False,True,56.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T16:59:01.161000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I sure do hope that other prominent EA figures didn't cover up murders.,increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False,True,514.3523,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",increase,hold,False,True,882.0976,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 140 |
+
,
|
| 141 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 143 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 145 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,decrease,True,True,1164.628,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True,True,13614.6088,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,flip,False,True,875.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,flip,False,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,flip,True,True,414.5979,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False,True,76.996,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,flip,False,True,1884.3998,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
|
| 165 |
+
Exactly 1 solid lead
|
| 166 |
+
195 data points
|
| 167 |
+
No other reasonable paths
|
| 168 |
+
No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,decrease,False,True,351.9836,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,flip,True,True,2501.5435,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 179 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-14T00:42:31.204000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,decrease,False,True,85.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
|
| 191 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 192 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 196 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 197 |
+
:
|
| 198 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,decrease,False,True,131.5169,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,hold,False,True,2249.4637,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T17:57:14.053000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Retaliation from EA leaders or retaliation from Sam Bankman Fried? I vaguely remember some former FTX employees saying t,decrease,decrease,True,True,500.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:24:26.292000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I've bribed Messi to split my final profits half with them,increase,flip,False,True,18551.0216,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:46:47.177000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're never going to figure this out even with 16 more hints.,decrease,flip,False,True,11762.6925,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:58:46.578000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Swanson
|
| 9 |
+
Then again, Peter is a common name, so these could all be coincidences",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:30:59.963000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"understood, so to motivate you it seems we need to first bankrupt you.
|
| 11 |
+
Would you be interested in loaning your entire n",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this
|
| 13 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
🤔",decrease,flip,False,True,6314.3955,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under:
|
| 18 |
+
Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T17:02:17.207000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Or maybe it refers to this
|
| 20 |
+
random guy
|
| 21 |
+
who is from the coast known as
|
| 22 |
+
Hawke's Bay
|
| 23 |
+
. And 9gag was made by people fr",decrease,hold,False,True,4556.1727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T06:52:38.746000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Would you feel comfortable holding more No shares if there was a market like this?
|
| 27 |
+
What if I add a bunch of subsidy man",flip,hold,False,True,1650.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR:
|
| 30 |
+
Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes.
|
| 31 |
+
Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-03T02:28:49.680000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: I’m sorry for yesterday. Also, why treat being unpersuadable like a virtue?
|
| 33 |
+
Hey
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
First off, I want to apolog",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:15.422000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I would in fact have a problem with that wording. The question is whether or not EA's knew FTX was playing poker with us,decrease,decrease,True,True,1800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T05:14:06.354000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),This absolutely cannot be related to the puzzle in any way. Do not pursue this thread at all.,flip,hold,False,True,1650.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes
|
| 39 |
+
Link
|
| 40 |
+
to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",increase,flip,False,True,22401.9362,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T23:50:12.788000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there a secret cabal collaboration location? I have an idea about some of the hints (possibly already obvious to othe,flip,flip,True,True,39.6384,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:17:44.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Gemini 3! I accidentally had Fast selected, though. Thinking resulted in a solution less abjectly insane but still hilar",flip,flip,True,True,69.5047,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,flip,True,True,484.3523,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T11:51:28.137000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Yes, settlements are recorded on dockets, even if the terms of the settlement are not.
|
| 46 |
+
And no, you were the person who ",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T01:26:15.313000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"What emotions would you experience, if these events happen?",decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:33:17.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Can you (not an AI) describe how this ""Lovasz analysis"" works?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T16:49:43.950000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Wait, the google machine says you can get sued for filing dumb cases and losing them in Pennsylvania. This changes ever",decrease,flip,False,True,2399.4637,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-01T03:25:49.493000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",From point 1 above: '(It does not include SBF or anyone else who could be considered FTX/Alameda leadership.)',increase,hold,False,True,10520.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:12:56.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"no, you misunderstand, 1000M is not 1000Ṁ, it's 1000 million i.e. 1 billion mana",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:59:47.114000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","thanks for the long response.
|
| 55 |
+
I wrote a longer reply this morning and lost it, but I basically agree with Dean here.
|
| 56 |
+
S",decrease,decrease,True,True,320.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-12T02:45:56.670000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"He did that, the part under the AI line has been manually edited now.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com
|
| 62 |
+
is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,decrease,False,True,8216.7204,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:13:58.206000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Whatever. He was pretty successful at hiding the fraud. This suggests operational security.,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:39:13.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"you cost me a ton of money on the first one I hope you know that😂😂😂, anyways, glad I got the opportunity so early cuz no",hold,flip,False,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense. Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it. This is just part of the cost of d",decrease,decrease,True,True,19.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T20:31:48.075000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed. FWIW I’m really not sure she counts, which is why I asked. Happy to be told she doesn’t.",decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:31:17.354000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"no he has to come and out say hes a communist or facist in any form. sign language counts.
|
| 69 |
+
any form of human communica",hold,hold,True,True,7.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:46:16.335000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"well there's still a 31% chance...
|
| 71 |
+
https://manifold.markets/ZaneMiller/when-will-zane-transition",flip,decrease,False,True,76.996,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T07:27:56.303000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"He specifically told us from the start that it would take 10 or more hints, none of the first hints should be considered",decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:00:45.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Now, we need to modify the subroutine to work after the first time, otherwise it will return the same element each time.",flip,hold,False,True,466.4627,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:23:01.853000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Unless someone thinks they already solved it, which could make some sense.",increase,flip,False,True,4615.0118,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:13:57.918000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Is there a docket that we can follow?,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,flip,False,True,2263.2867,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 80 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:05:36.804000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"in any case, we just run the subroutine over and over, keeping a list of all found elements in B, up to 110n+1 times, un",flip,hold,False,True,466.4627,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T01:20:51.276000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh snap. I’m back from dinner and we got another 500. You know what would be a real solid class act? if YOU donated the ,hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T19:41:51.733000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,if ben becomes a nazi or a commie before this market resolves Ill personally give the person who most influenced him to ,hold,hold,True,True,7.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,decrease,False,True,20.8,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-04T23:51:22.270000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",There are even more crimes in here:,hold,flip,False,True,205.6784,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:12:17.339000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"ok including
|
| 91 |
+
we got a little bit more than 2k usd pledge to charity. That’s actually not too shabby compared to nothi",hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T15:02:04.097000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This market does not contain any documents that are outside of the evidence that I otherwise would have presented.,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field?
|
| 94 |
+
https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-08T19:38:48.678000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's what it currently takes to coax and cajole GPT-4 to the right answer:
|
| 96 |
+
https://chat.openai.com/share/e3d10cc4-5e",flip,flip,True,True,2.4704,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T01:08:17.091000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Wanna make a side bet about whether Market Creator hires a lawyer who files something on his behalf within the next 60 d,decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T19:16:53.025000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I meant that EA leaders aren't precluded from seeing smoking guns of specific lawbreaking just because early Alameda emp,increase,decrease,False,True,593.7603,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T06:43:48.495000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I pasted it into a thing while I was walking between offices 😅 but it got it totally wrong …
|
| 104 |
+
it would be something lik",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T18:56:51.299000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Case removed to federal court? This is a NO all day long and twice on Sunday.,decrease,hold,False,True,3650.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,hold,False,True,391.4627,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:10:33.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"if anyone can solve it, it’s you 🍀",increase,hold,False,True,40.3035,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:52:01.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"a trader did this!
|
| 109 |
+
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle#zjj29bv61m
|
| 110 |
+
(sheet
|
| 111 |
+
link
|
| 112 |
+
)",decrease,flip,False,True,5083.9644,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T01:33:45.398000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2025-12-23: a sequence of between 4 and 20 letters (the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization does",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:51:13.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,mb long-mid back rounded vowel or low-mid back rounded vowel,decrease,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T11:33:37.763000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"If people really think binance had a 20% chance of collapsing in the next 9.5 months, they should be willing to bet much",increase,decrease,False,True,9766.7204,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,flip,decrease,False,True,1650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:01:15.823000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Yeah, I've tried it a bunch of times now and it's pretty consistently nailing it. Just now I asked it to say a couple se",decrease,flip,False,True,31878.534,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T11:41:59.938000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Whatever my wife puts in the shopping cart at the supermarket. It will be at least one shopping cart full of food and no,hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/
|
| 123 |
+
Coinba",increase,flip,False,True,271.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:19:21.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),for now! Until you switch to YES and reveal the answer! (Also please sell your no shares I really want to unload my YES),hold,flip,False,True,2151.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-30T03:53:41.966000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I've recently seen how hard it was for Coffeezilla to get SBF to admit commingling of funds. I think his overall strateg,increase,decrease,False,True,28.9702,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:48:01.627000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),We're in a really unequal position here with a team of 13 No holders fighting the valiant fight while 28 Yes holders are,flip,decrease,False,True,1650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T15:31:13.874000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yes, pretty obvious anyone complicit in this scandal would have an interest in manipulating this prediction market.",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T22:49:52.774000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What if they mean there are no F and C in the answer?,hold,flip,False,True,817.4505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T17:17:46.812000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Jurisdiction is a non-waivable defect. This is like having a car accident down the block and trying to sue in Sweden. It,increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-13T18:54:38.487000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: I’m just sad. Why can’t I get through to you? More thoughts on my stupid market.
|
| 134 |
+
Hey
|
| 135 |
+
, I’m not gonna say I’m ",hold,hold,True,True,14529.9924,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:12:52.338000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,You shouldn't change resolution this late. There is chance both interpretations fail. If not I'm sure you'll make the ri,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T08:12:51.829000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Imagine being a Yes holder when you open the mail and see you got 3 arrow hints and 2 of them are errors. May as well ju,flip,decrease,False,True,4039.4787,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T06:43:03.449000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"“T is in A…” it doesn’t follow the new set is smaller, just that it is in B minus X. The bound on the size of B is what ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 140 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try
|
| 141 |
+
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 143 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:58:28.810000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 144 |
+
Oliver Habryka's comment
|
| 145 |
+
on
|
| 146 |
+
some important questions for the EA Leadership
|
| 147 |
+
:
|
| 148 |
+
The image, both internally and",flip,decrease,False,True,133.8997,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:30:46.212000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",And you shouldn’t be using unethical to describe illegal activities.,decrease,hold,False,True,875.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:22:03.307000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"And then the next level of collaboration that is very easy is for the leader to have a pool of potential guesses, so as ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 153 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:23:04.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It has the right time though. It just has the wrong date.,flip,flip,True,True,10161.695,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 156 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-04T22:34:54.211000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I'm very curious what people's likelihood is for this market, so I made a poll",increase,hold,False,True,20731.5321,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T06:37:13.694000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"i am basing this entirely on that possible joke comment but followtherednose,?",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:32:28.201000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's legal to make irrational bets! It's not even unethical, just foolish. It's not legal or ethical to make any kind of",decrease,hold,False,True,2250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,decrease,True,True,190.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T03:16:08.081000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The second one it got right first try
|
| 162 |
+
https://chatgpt.com/share/67550b08-a408-8012-8711-028f1b253fe3
|
| 163 |
+
The first one it ",decrease,decrease,True,True,8518.7945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 165 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-16T20:07:53.089000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"You might have several LLMs to test after closing, but I feel like anything publicly available in 2024 will be around th",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 166 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T15:38:42.332000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"We are Charlie Kirk
|
| 167 |
+
We carry the flame",decrease,hold,False,True,4175.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 168 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T17:17:32.817000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Let us all see what the YES defectors are doing. By buying yes they directly fund a YES wall at 50% and prevent the good,decrease,flip,False,True,5336.778,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:48:35.141000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Rats! This was at 50% for a full 6 minutes before you posted that!
|
| 171 |
+
No holders, you need to be united. We can do this ev",flip,flip,True,True,3090.2519,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:17:30.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I won't buy more Yes shares after that,hold,hold,True,True,21102.1117,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:25:00.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If it's December 30 and there are still just 9 hints, will people still be buying Yes shares to hold it at 50%???",flip,decrease,False,True,178.3582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T00:31:38.387000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Max 5? I get to 8 by extending all three of the triangle's tips outside of the circle. I'm starting to think these geome,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 179 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-04T17:54:28.308000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","She has a conflict of interest therefore she might have. I don't know what the probability is, but I don't think it's ze",hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T01:27:33.464000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"So is there a reason this is still 10%? Literally the first thing I tried in o1-preview seems spot on
|
| 181 |
+
To solve this geo",increase,hold,False,True,6434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:11:14.700000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The fish sauce angle is nice but I wasn't (yet) convinced by every single hint.,decrease,decrease,True,True,11762.6925,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-08T22:53:57.306000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,TL;DR: It’s the last day of Manifest. I hoped you’d resolve YES. You didn’t. Maybe consider being a little less stoic? E,hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,increase,flip,False,True,491.1779,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T17:11:09.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"You will have to turn over all of your writings about the case, including this market. I'm interested in what will happ",decrease,flip,False,True,2134.4637,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 191 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T13:26:25.252000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Would facilitating someone taking the single largest profit in manifold history on this question be enough to resolve th,hold,flip,False,True,22.9138,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 192 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution.
|
| 193 |
+
(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-18T22:58:50.251000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","There are a bunch of outstanding questions about the resolution criteria in the comments IIRC, and I don't think they're",flip,hold,False,True,664.0413,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T17:58:51.711000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,See edits to market for resolution.,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 196 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 197 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 198 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),nga I'm high wdym from 11million to 10000000000000000million,hold,flip,False,True,958.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:07:36.353000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Are you riding this all the way down or what is your plan here?,decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 201 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 202 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 203 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 204 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:32:27.107000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, that clarification makes it sound like this would only resolve positively if they suspect that FTX was dipping into ",decrease,flip,False,True,11.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 205 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,increase,flip,False,True,17940.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 206 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 207 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T02:59:49.570000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All of the accusations of fraud refer to things which happened after the Alameda schism, as far as I know.",hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 208 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:50:35.281000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Whoever tries it will get banned for wasting resources.,flip,decrease,False,True,2196.4774,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 209 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T04:13:02.272000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks for explaining, so what you mean is that you're really not enjoying it right now but kinda feel compelled to keep",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 210 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:55:37.659000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I don’t think this can be resolved either way without testing the model with the highest likelihood of passing.
|
| 211 |
+
I thin",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 212 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 213 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 214 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 215 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T18:25:33.802000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I found enough counterparties in the other market that it was worth just taking the L on the remaining amount -- there's,hold,flip,False,True,50320.0159,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:04:20.980000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"everyone says that, and yet Afghanistan belongs to the Taliban, Israel and Hamas agreed to hostage swaps, the Good Frida",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-17T22:31:01.902000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,uhhh does this mean my SÍTIO guess was sanitized and treated as SITIO or discarded for using a non-English Latin charact,decrease,decrease,True,True,5083.9644,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:43:22.377000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What if they appeal it? When is a case over? When you have the money or all appeals are exhausted?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:13:51.269000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,need to buildup my portfolio :)) been losing lots in this market so far,hold,decrease,False,True,614.7137,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,flip,True,True,647.7873,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-21T23:32:52.830000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"See the spatial reasoning section of
|
| 14 |
+
https://www.understandingai.org/p/openai-just-unleashed-an-alien-of
|
| 15 |
+
about how o",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:10:12.289000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we can choose to just do nothing, which means no one will solve the puzzle. Or we can choose to take action. I think cho",flip,flip,True,True,1750.4592,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",increase,decrease,False,True,142.9797,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:02:47.503000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I know. Let me know how o1 does on these problems if you have access to it. I'm unwilling to pay for it, but willing to ",flip,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:06.809000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh I was thinking I could be persuaded to vote yes in this poll and maybe someone else would as well (I haven't voted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T18:21:02.849000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Possibly relevant comment on how we should interpret the fact that Nick was not accused of being aware of fraud: https:/,hold,decrease,False,True,410.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",decrease,hold,False,True,11762.6925,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T07:24:16.711000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Because you submitted a guess with
|
| 24 |
+
8
|
| 25 |
+
7 letters, I think.",flip,flip,True,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:05:25.825000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,So are we now sure there is an O in the answer?,increase,flip,False,True,351.9836,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,hold,False,True,472.9726,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:02:23.716000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that is a risk assessment that
|
| 32 |
+
would have to make. I'd prefer not to reveal the odds I project, I think it works bet",hold,hold,True,True,22.9138,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with
|
| 35 |
+
if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T18:18:25.611000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I dismissed this case without prejudice.
|
| 37 |
+
The market does not meet either resolution criteria at this time.",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands:
|
| 39 |
+
Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,flip,False,True,31781.3143,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:31.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Do you want to share them... pls.,hold,hold,True,True,5868.2685,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets""
|
| 47 |
+
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,flip,False,True,22.141,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:32:19.086000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,crowd funding is a tried and true strategy for activating potentially willing donors who otherwise wouldn’t be motivated,increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder…
|
| 52 |
+
For that othe",flip,decrease,False,True,709.4781,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T17:52:41.395000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),it’s not hard to imagine a partial solution where you narrow it down to something like dozens of options and guesses mat,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,flip,False,True,375.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-07T05:47:11.661000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it says somewhere in the comments that it must be customer money, not investor money, so no",hold,hold,True,True,11593.9613,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:53:54.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Oh I think that was regarding the eyes that were looking for a low level signal.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:26.576000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,logic was created long before programmers,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,hold,False,True,3479.6372,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just
|
| 63 |
+
holding YES and
|
| 64 |
+
holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:19:40.556000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Actually this question would make more sense if you disallowed persuasion of any kind for the NO side.,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:45:16.988000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does timezone make a guess invalid? I use the timezone where I live (JST), but it's a very early zone so sometimes you g",increase,hold,False,True,256.6573,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:22:01.185000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i will hold over 5k if u can give me 1k,hold,hold,True,True,270.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:40:27.392000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm pretty sure we understood the dynamic early on. But participants maybe were unsure how many hints would be required,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:14:04.588000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What do you think about this streak of eleven consecutive days with no hints whatsoever? I see people are still buying Y,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:40:55.976000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok. Gotta go out to dinner with some folks. So here’s my last Hail Mary before the close of the market.
|
| 78 |
+
You know, Give",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:01:28.262000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,is this similar to your original solution?,hold,flip,False,True,711.1315,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945
|
| 81 |
+
Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,decrease,False,True,171.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",flip,hold,False,True,508.7276,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",flip,decrease,False,True,109.6766,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T22:56:11.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I understand now. What I had in mind was that the AI should get all questions of similar difficulty correct, but not nec",decrease,flip,False,True,31870.5646,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:15:23.181000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Yeah, that seems like about the right read.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-14T13:59:55.204000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Seeing the actual hints are 4 chunks long, I bet that 2 errors means half the hint is an error. So yeah, steady state is",increase,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:55:00.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"which ones, and using what tools and anesthetic?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T03:41:11.746000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,When is the last time you experience extreme happiness that had only <5% chance to occur? Would you like to share that e,decrease,hold,False,True,81.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:31:17.675000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,a subsidiary filing for bankruptcy != a catastrophic collapse for the entirety of binance,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T05:24:36.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I'll bid cutting 4 of
|
| 93 |
+
's toes off if it resolves NO.",increase,flip,False,True,4821.2588,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:35:33.046000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This is actually the wrong way to think about it. Cases aren't won by courtroom surprises. They are won by convincing ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status!
|
| 98 |
+
If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:41:41.501000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"it will all make sense soon, I assure you.",increase,hold,False,True,401.7053,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T20:52:46.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Any Yes holders out there ready to switch sides yet?
|
| 101 |
+
So far you have accumulated nearly 1/3 of the hint days and each o",flip,decrease,False,True,4133.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:40:30.542000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", could you perhaps clarify if you are currently convinced that o1 solves your example question at least 50% of the time",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:06:03.775000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It would be fun to double my mana, it would also be fun to help everyone solve the puzzle",hold,hold,True,True,27025.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:21:26.469000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pink Pony Club is a very good choice for Karaoke. Lots of sing a long peotential, just prepare for the high note before ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",increase,flip,False,True,4485.4804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-01T02:59:21.428000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unpbMMR63no
|
| 108 |
+
My comment tonight is this entire movie.",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,flip,False,True,8216.7204,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically.
|
| 112 |
+
Or loosing vast ",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-24T02:04:41.095000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I think when you see this, you’ll have no choice but to resolve this YES!!!!
|
| 114 |
+
Click on it. Click it.
|
| 115 |
+
https://www.youtu",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:34:02.187000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",If you know they knew he was sketchy and you can still find them saying nice things about SBF publicly then that is cove,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with
|
| 118 |
+
if he resolves no",hold,hold,True,True,735.3906,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T04:05:57.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can not guess 2 times from :09(mod15) to :12(mod15) in any timezone
|
| 121 |
+
this user is not trustworthy.",hold,hold,True,True,116.238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T02:49:05.961000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I meant put some in the pinned comment here, but now that the discussion thread is .ore clearly marked, that's probably ",hold,hold,True,True,475.9094,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:08:51.356000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a theory about this being related to fish sauce and ketchup (Chinese word altered in Portuguese). I can make it fi,hold,decrease,False,True,10320.6993,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T16:43:55.384000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),nice try but you haven't accounted for the rest days yet. Back to the well!,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2367,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T21:04:05.693000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It means that I'm continuing to follow what I said earlier in the market - I'm only stating the facts of the case that a,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:17:13.515000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"ok here's one I came up with
|
| 128 |
+
Ok now you are standing in a room. The room is empty except you see a box in the middle of",hold,hold,True,True,7434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,hold,False,True,18456.112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T02:16:15.897000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Sell me on the dream,
|
| 132 |
+
! Come oooonnn!",decrease,flip,False,True,56.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,flip,False,True,1213.9562,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,flip,decrease,False,True,134.929,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T16:59:01.161000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I sure do hope that other prominent EA figures didn't cover up murders.,increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False,True,514.3523,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",increase,hold,False,True,882.0976,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-05T01:46:04.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey
|
| 140 |
+
,
|
| 141 |
+
Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could n",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero:
|
| 143 |
+
(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,1784.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that.
|
| 145 |
+
Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:00:58.203000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending o",decrease,decrease,True,True,1164.628,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-31T22:01:50.899000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've tried to distill the various discussion into an FAQ in the market description. Any objections or concerns?,hold,hold,True,True,13614.6088,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:36:28.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"if you knock off a fixed proportion p each turn in a greedy algorithm, you get down to the point where there's only one ",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,decrease,decrease,True,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,flip,False,True,875.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",hold,flip,False,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,flip,True,True,414.5979,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False,True,76.996,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:31:02.551000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh yes, absolutely! You are in the right place.",hold,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,flip,False,True,1884.3998,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got:
|
| 165 |
+
Exactly 1 solid lead
|
| 166 |
+
195 data points
|
| 167 |
+
No other reasonable paths
|
| 168 |
+
No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-09T20:04:03.599000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,", it seems to me that in order to resolve this fairly, you might need to define a set of questions and answers (perhaps ",decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,decrease,False,True,241.2487,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,decrease,False,True,351.9836,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-11-23T01:50:13.350000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My bad. I guess the timing was just coincidental.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,flip,True,True,2501.5435,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-11T00:43:54.646000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Congratulations on being a mod?
|
| 179 |
+
Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a tou",hold,decrease,False,True,15100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-14T00:42:31.204000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T16:05:56.747000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think it's fine? Eliza is still incentivized to give the answer before the deadline,hold,hold,True,True,950.0441,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 183 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:35:55.864000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I was also hoping the Manifold clarification AI would get you here. Darn it!,decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 185 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:51:12.549000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Trying to metagame the benchmarks to be accurate is likely to make them even less accurate because you're going by wheth,decrease,hold,False,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-14T13:03:41.672000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",That one yes. She accused us of harassing her.,decrease,hold,False,True,2124.358,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,decrease,False,True,85.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 190 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period
|
| 191 |
+
Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role:
|
| 192 |
+
End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",increase,flip,False,True,767.0988,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T19:29:06.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,pretty sure they just ingest the api,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 195 |
+
xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T03:44:16.541000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From
|
| 196 |
+
Sam Bankman-Fried, Effective Altruism, and the Question of Complicity | The New Yorker
|
| 197 |
+
:
|
| 198 |
+
The employee told me, ",flip,decrease,False,True,131.5169,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 200 |
+
gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:51:33.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(I was kinda just hoping a minimal amount of effort would be enough activation energy to get someone else to do somethin,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.33783783783783794,0.16465608535246448,-0.17318175248537346,DOWN,0.9331328483666879,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,15,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.40983606557377056,0.9917046016301102,0.5818685360563396,UP,0.15868848262784677,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.48999999999999994,0.99,0.5,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),9,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.7950786771128443,0.617567078741663,-0.17751159837118136,DOWN,0.5814551301812896,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),19,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.5126409655565309,0.5999999999999998,0.08735903444346882,UP,0.9275334163846463,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,46,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.1496417276922608,0.06960213022531361,-0.0800395974669472,DOWN,0.9929210595515263,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.337837837837838,0.45028318326467925,0.11244534542684126,UP,0.970473858019092,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.5901639344262294,0.1742649266108589,-0.4158990078153705,DOWN,0.38771998739488106,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,16,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.1496417276922608,0.18674794857723925,0.03710622088497845,UP,0.861878453038674,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,7,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.14964172769226078,0.16047717108910908,0.010835443396848304,UP,0.9953764861294584,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
5,0.4899999999999999,0.4256336864306903,-0.06436631356930961,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
6,0.1496417276922608,0.1791863673457786,0.029544639653517807,UP,0.25,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
7,0.5901639344262294,0.3563555986509155,-0.2338083357753139,DOWN,0.42846401609445334,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
8,0.2952535227436615,0.9742550780172384,0.6790015552735769,UP,0.9944659506503756,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,8,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
9,0.4899999999999998,0.503080193975351,0.013080193975351151,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),7,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
10,0.4899999999999999,0.6404199148870552,0.1504199148870553,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
11,0.49519164074461647,0.22845136148082956,-0.2667402792637869,DOWN,0.983402489626556,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,12,DOWN,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
12,0.7950786771128443,0.6547064684587455,-0.14037220865409883,DOWN,0.7610062893081762,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
13,0.5901639344262294,0.39824910706127503,-0.19191482736495435,DOWN,0.6049548040968661,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,18,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
14,0.7950786771128443,0.5250810581496168,-0.2699976189632275,DOWN,0.4464240195717548,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),15,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
15,0.4899999999999999,0.48397313965875427,-0.00602686034124561,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
16,0.5126409655565308,0.5001343114490816,-0.012506654107449222,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
17,0.1496417276922608,0.07036569878847769,-0.07927602890378312,DOWN,0.9990744725018786,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,10,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
18,0.40983606557377056,0.6813790966441658,0.2715430310703953,UP,0.9509593039767466,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
19,0.4951916407446165,0.11149785155851812,-0.3836937891860984,DOWN,0.9662666406366572,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,15,DOWN,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/commitment_validity_manifold_culture.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/culture",
|
| 3 |
+
"wrong_bettor_test": {
|
| 4 |
+
"n_hp": 65,
|
| 5 |
+
"n_wrong_bettors": 28,
|
| 6 |
+
"n_directional": 18,
|
| 7 |
+
"skip": "n_dir=18<20"
|
| 8 |
+
},
|
| 9 |
+
"dose_response": {
|
| 10 |
+
"n_hp_directional": 44,
|
| 11 |
+
"quartiles": [
|
| 12 |
+
{
|
| 13 |
+
"label": "Q1(最小)",
|
| 14 |
+
"da": 0.4545,
|
| 15 |
+
"n": 11,
|
| 16 |
+
"median_position_size": 150.0,
|
| 17 |
+
"binom_p": 0.7256,
|
| 18 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 19 |
+
},
|
| 20 |
+
{
|
| 21 |
+
"label": "Q2",
|
| 22 |
+
"da": 0.7273,
|
| 23 |
+
"n": 11,
|
| 24 |
+
"median_position_size": 4350.0,
|
| 25 |
+
"binom_p": 0.1133,
|
| 26 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 27 |
+
},
|
| 28 |
+
{
|
| 29 |
+
"label": "Q3",
|
| 30 |
+
"da": 0.5455,
|
| 31 |
+
"n": 11,
|
| 32 |
+
"median_position_size": 16030.9,
|
| 33 |
+
"binom_p": 0.5,
|
| 34 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 35 |
+
},
|
| 36 |
+
{
|
| 37 |
+
"label": "Q4(最大)",
|
| 38 |
+
"da": 0.5455,
|
| 39 |
+
"n": 11,
|
| 40 |
+
"median_position_size": 466186.84,
|
| 41 |
+
"binom_p": 0.5,
|
| 42 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 43 |
+
}
|
| 44 |
+
],
|
| 45 |
+
"csd_q4_q1": 0.0909,
|
| 46 |
+
"mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.359,
|
| 47 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 48 |
+
}
|
| 49 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/did_manifold_culture.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
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|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/culture",
|
| 3 |
+
"n_pre_directional": 31,
|
| 4 |
+
"n_post_directional": 44,
|
| 5 |
+
"da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4839,
|
| 6 |
+
"da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6591,
|
| 7 |
+
"da_post_gt_position": 0.5682,
|
| 8 |
+
"did": 0.1752,
|
| 9 |
+
"paired_sign_test": {
|
| 10 |
+
"skip": "n_pairs=0<10"
|
| 11 |
+
},
|
| 12 |
+
"wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6111
|
| 13 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet.
|
| 3 |
+
Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
|
| 7 |
+
We are in an interesting situation! There's the
|
| 8 |
+
other market
|
| 9 |
+
about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
|
| 12 |
+
",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on
|
| 16 |
+
's calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
|
| 18 |
+
Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would
|
| 22 |
+
tweet,
|
| 23 |
+
it is about what I would
|
| 24 |
+
write.
|
| 25 |
+
Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to
|
| 30 |
+
and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
|
| 31 |
+
By the way,
|
| 32 |
+
, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes.
|
| 35 |
+
Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
|
| 36 |
+
by buyi",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
|
| 38 |
+
My position at 32 point:
|
| 39 |
+
(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
|
| 42 |
+
Relate",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
|
| 46 |
+
A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to
|
| 64 |
+
https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining
|
| 76 |
+
any
|
| 77 |
+
of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 80 |
+
Al",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 86 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 87 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet.
|
| 3 |
+
Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
|
| 7 |
+
We are in an interesting situation! There's the
|
| 8 |
+
other market
|
| 9 |
+
about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
|
| 12 |
+
",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on
|
| 16 |
+
's calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
|
| 18 |
+
Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would
|
| 22 |
+
tweet,
|
| 23 |
+
it is about what I would
|
| 24 |
+
write.
|
| 25 |
+
Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to
|
| 30 |
+
and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
|
| 31 |
+
By the way,
|
| 32 |
+
, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes.
|
| 35 |
+
Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
|
| 36 |
+
by buyi",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
|
| 38 |
+
My position at 32 point:
|
| 39 |
+
(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
|
| 42 |
+
Relate",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
|
| 46 |
+
A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to
|
| 64 |
+
https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining
|
| 76 |
+
any
|
| 77 |
+
of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 80 |
+
Al",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 86 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 87 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,YES,NO,False,True,13100.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T18:46:58.050000+00:00,SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does that mean when it says I bought some shares at 70%, I actually bought them at a price between 69.5% and 70.5%? Is t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.4991,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:32:14.985000+00:00,Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, it's only M$723. Where did you get 10k?",NO,NO,True,True,491.4308,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on
|
| 7 |
+
's calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",NO,NO,True,True,3553.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 10 |
+
selling all my
|
| 11 |
+
NO
|
| 12 |
+
shares
|
| 13 |
+
""",NO,NO,True,True,26812.7027,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines
|
| 15 |
+
yup!
|
| 16 |
+
Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […]
|
| 17 |
+
Holding positions which",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,YES,NO,False,True,389.9288,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:35:45.294000+00:00,oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Evan should give mana to the banned account who now holds 1 mana in yes instead of 61.,YES,NO,False,True,9355.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:16:09.600000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I appreciate Isaac’s annoyance, but it’s okay with me as long as you don’t advertise a ton of markets this way. It is tr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:08:43.548000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I mostly meant fictional feathers then. Even with only M$10k in my account I could place a hundred M$10k limit orders to,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,31733.9851,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:38:45.241000+00:00,Ddm060TkMrbUqyi4jfMQCoOZMdA3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,also allow and encourage 1-59 YES buyers to discourage >60 YES buyers and make them defect,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor.
|
| 25 |
+
This market has nothing to do with predi",YES,NO,False,True,16030.9049,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:34:26.203000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Trading hasn't been this exciting since I lost $50,000 shorting Gamestop after Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"". The excha",YES,NO,False,True,94664.4587,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:21:23.840000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the poll about the definition of ""The World""
|
| 29 |
+
has concluded. from my comment there:
|
| 30 |
+
looks like sufficient consensus sa",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:25:05.034000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Self-thought-organizing M$5:
|
| 32 |
+
I broadly agree, but strictly speaking – and I’m sure you know this – this market is much",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10000.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:04:31.438000+00:00,1c1nDo3w7IZk5CDaR1WXDRthmyi2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there's actually so much profit to be made from whales switching to yes
|
| 34 |
+
but if they don't there's not much a pleb can d",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:09:10.297000+00:00,jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,What's that about M$2k left for NO buyers?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9415.3326,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,4974.6809,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T05:11:01.493000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Alrighty, I'm hearing ~$9000 so far from the yes team in immediate donations. Do we have a number from the no's?",YES,NO,False,True,11500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,cfz8q51Q6xdrRjBw1HdfmMlsmAz1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2354.1354,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9033.6091,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:17:06.609000+00:00,zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","All in, $10k+ committed to effective charity on Monday. Let’s actually do this, folks.",YES,YES,True,True,619954.6843,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:00:41.012000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Agreed, I just burned $1100 in 20 minutes and it makes me feel dumb. I should have known better.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,608.0723,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:55:57.200000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A tweet must have been tweeted in order to be edited.
|
| 45 |
+
A tweet was tweeted.
|
| 46 |
+
Resolved YES. Congratulations
|
| 47 |
+
.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
|
| 49 |
+
",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 51 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 52 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,9V16g1e4nJcoD0Q25lNVXuVmjBY2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",NO,NO,True,True,563.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76345.9371,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:02:07.335000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I think I'll just make a ruling on this one, as it feels like an easy one that doesnt require a consensus poll. We don't",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,YES,NO,False,True,10097.0229,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:01:03.707000+00:00,cVe9N7NNTCOKdTg45rA3zWGOcUt1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll probably spend (at least) $3k buying NO (potentially more if necessary). I won't buy it all at once so that it give,NO,NO,True,True,4350.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,rAUEQ4uZsLT23c4MT3IVf9zL7Um2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:19:24.266000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"If it makes you feel better, I lost $50k shorting Gamestop because Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"".",NO,NO,True,True,150.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining
|
| 62 |
+
any
|
| 63 |
+
of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:47:22.510000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The difference between me cashing out my current shares at 3% vs. cashing them out at 0% is M$27,457.",NO,NO,True,True,466186.8405,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen
|
| 66 |
+
A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",YES,NO,False,True,95663.5175,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",NO,NO,True,True,1960.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet.
|
| 69 |
+
Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",NO,YES,False,True,237.9558,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",YES,NO,False,True,12850.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:25:01.305000+00:00,Ddm060TkMrbUqyi4jfMQCoOZMdA3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Why is your budget way more than your profit of winning (also add the 100000 lottery), you better give all of the mana y",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,70.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would
|
| 74 |
+
tweet,
|
| 75 |
+
it is about what I would
|
| 76 |
+
write.
|
| 77 |
+
Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T10:31:02.276000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,love it! the poetry argument is a really good one I hadn't heard. I imagine it's finite due to the limitations of human ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T16:00:40.378000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,All: Should I BUY MANIFOLD MARKETS so that I can release THE 69 FILES and reveal to THE PEOPLE the TRUTH of what happene,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,63485.9539,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:05:25.194000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Exactly, the M161k probably assumes that all limit orders will be paid in full. When I enter M$42425 in the box to buy Y",NO,NO,True,True,14887.858,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:56:38.267000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","No, not even close. Nobody cared to subsidize this market, so it just has the unique trader subsidies, which total a pid",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:13.829000+00:00,Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wait, I can't do math. It's about M$7475.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,491.4308,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76345.9371,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 88 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",NO,NO,True,True,1850.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:21:35.718000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What? Pretty much all the other markets linked are derivative markets of this one.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,95813.5175,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T21:19:27.936000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"fyi due to the poll I ran, I'm not accepting visual organs or lenses that aren't called ""eyes"". the market wasn't able t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:11:30.912000+00:00,946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Jack's and arae's cash are not festhers, I have less than M$100K in hand, I bet I could go all in and still they will ou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4626.2298,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T13:51:52.735000+00:00,RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","alright I'm taking my profits and leaving, this market has become too risky of shenanigans",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,zXGykwSJQtMqzbOvDyTXiYGwZ3p2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue
|
| 96 |
+
Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018
|
| 97 |
+
Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st
|
| 98 |
+
Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-28T20:48:56.779000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"lol. it's supposed to be silly, which is why I'm regularly communicating about trends and intentions",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:28:36.279000+00:00,9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, you can do a
|
| 101 |
+
lot
|
| 102 |
+
of things with US$10,000 that are probably better than spending it on a jokey prediction mark",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,138.6975,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,YES,NO,False,True,94664.4587,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T22:56:03.500000+00:00,WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Mira's M4,000 in NO at 70% require an investment of M9333.3 in YES to overcome.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right?
|
| 106 |
+
Relate",YES,NO,False,True,114.4754,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:25:44.267000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"YES has about a 50% profit rate near 69%. So suppose I invested M$100k to get ~M$150k return. That is M$50k of profit, r",YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16453.9776,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:31:39.158000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",There are a lot of meta-markets about this one that require it to be open the whole time. I have markets about what perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",YES,NO,False,True,22.1413,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule:
|
| 113 |
+
We are in an interesting situation! There's the
|
| 114 |
+
other market
|
| 115 |
+
about how long it will t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:11:29.640000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'd love to officially endorse your calculations as the official average for meta markets when this market closes. The o,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:28:23.494000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bribes seem to be for current holders, defectors, etc. I'm not anymore holding shares at the moment and haven't acce",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:34:06.910000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm kinda surprised this market is so low. The M$200,000 it would take to turn this around is only $2000 of real world m",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",NO,NO,True,True,7000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",NO,NO,True,True,386730.068,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:31:40.488000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'll wait until close, as specified in the description. I'm hoping to double-check the calculations tomorrow so that I c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,WR2p6FWfI2fx3U3zY0Ed5aBgMyt2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T04:02:17.407000+00:00,HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","right so you're calculating the variance of ""Euclidian distance to (mean x, mean y)""",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:57:51.262000+00:00,4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This seems far from over...it would only take a collective $300 to deplete the limit orders...,NO,NO,True,True,8.1569,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:45:51.663000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","people holding NO can sell now, with a lot of profit, and then switch to YES, and profit more",NO,YES,False,True,215.1566,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6872.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,rUocRsR4yEWriTP52LNIDf7XJY83,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T16:35:36.327000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Y'all, we're officially a feature on the Manifold homepage!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",NO,NO,True,True,26812.7027,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes.
|
| 135 |
+
Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market
|
| 136 |
+
by buyi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",NO,NO,True,True,2904.827,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:16:35.246000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I uploaded a new version of the image. Some of the circles overlap, not much one can do about that, but should be an imp",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",NO,NO,True,True,26802.7027,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 140 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to
|
| 141 |
+
https://manifold.markets/jack/will",NO,NO,True,True,27445.7605,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T05:58:01.599000+00:00,p3ADzwIUS3fk0ka80XYEE3OM3S32,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",This could explain some things...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 143 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 144 |
+
Al",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16453.9776,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 145 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,49N1aOzO1BesiAvOQYaBiegCO2B2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to
|
| 146 |
+
and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close.
|
| 147 |
+
By the way,
|
| 148 |
+
, do I understand it correct",YES,YES,True,True,53.7475,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T22:56:53.526000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"tbh,
|
| 150 |
+
, I think it's mostly your fault the way people are using the word. Your bounties all have ""defect"" in the title.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:28:18.384000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",My NO limit orders at 70 aren't to protect 70; they're to protect me. Obviously I'd like the market to resolve YES with ,YES,NO,False,True,617.3257,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit.
|
| 155 |
+
My position at 32 point:
|
| 156 |
+
(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",YES,NO,False,True,2.4136,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,12850.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:57:46.446000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I'll be giving the last 10 points tonight, probably within the next hour. I'll then be sleeping. In the morning I will r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 161 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T15:32:06.289000+00:00,z4AJOt8LtNeAXXm7ZhAY1C7A9Ib2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Here's the deal, even though the amount of bets to bring down the median is still rising, the top two holders have incre",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 165 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-18T22:19:36.002000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,A bold plan! I wish you the best of luck. :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 166 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",YES,NO,False,True,12156.2615,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 167 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:26:57.286000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There seems to be some misinformation about this being about ""charity"" vs ""not charity"" (I know some of it's probably no",NO,NO,True,True,57759.1161,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 168 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:04:41.259000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Like the ""lower parts = feet"" thing I find an outdated model of atomic particles to be unconvincing and I don't think it",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:27:19.053000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The M$2K is the profit if you put $INFINITY on NO.
|
| 171 |
+
My standing offer is retracted, so my shares remain uncommitted.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76345.9371,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds.
|
| 173 |
+
Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 174 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:18:45.948000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Well, I imagine you are overestimating how many people have enough disposable income to invest $2K (and in reality much ",NO,NO,True,True,6008.9413,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:07:43.356000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"ooo now that is a
|
| 176 |
+
good
|
| 177 |
+
argument for eyes!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1_did_pre.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T16:04:00.926000+00:00,FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",this page lags a lot when I'm on it for some reason,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,zXGykwSJQtMqzbOvDyTXiYGwZ3p2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue
|
| 4 |
+
Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018
|
| 5 |
+
Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st
|
| 6 |
+
Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:32:37.532000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",>someone sells enough NO to make the price shoot up to 99%,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T12:13:16.345000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,or anyone else know anything about this? has there been other reported outtages or other issues across the site today? o,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:45:38.763000+00:00,ZdIZFG6rA1aLAR0Fhg0eXXdOsKv2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Advertising my market here:
|
| 11 |
+
Outcome of this market will decide whether I join the ""Yes"" or ""No"" side in this market",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T02:55:29.805000+00:00,keNVuy7AaFY451Gx4uyQ8rfYJdf2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The market is about things we call ""feet"" or ""eyes"". Heliotropic plants may well observe light, but we don't call them e",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T13:41:23.666000+00:00,hWk8tyKqeePzHKgb8LDpSrxDraI2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Hm, I meant the energy function that is needed for the acceptance criterion. But then I realized that ""Metropolis–Hastin",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-24T09:58:35.712000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",i will hit your limit order to provide you with some more shares. May you reach 42069 nicely,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T08:38:37.268000+00:00,LUMGSSCpqrXkDxsGmWAl7O4Nxez1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,I still have this issue. Some others seem to be able to trade. Is this an account based issue?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:47.596000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",(And Andrew is correct that I was going to ask about strings inside of URLs.),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T16:08:12.469000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Ah, buy you're ignoring the possibility that YES bettors make it resolve YES.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-05T17:37:49.994000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""I am Eliezer Yudkowsky, sequencer of sequences, look on my rationalussy and despair.""",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T13:19:43.259000+00:00,hWk8tyKqeePzHKgb8LDpSrxDraI2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What did you choose as your ""Energy""? (also not a statistician)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:01:46.701000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Ok, you have convinced me.
|
| 21 |
+
the tweet must be written by you and come from your own Twitter account (the one with your",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:54:22.954000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It’s not super clear where the line is, since all markets incentivize trading",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-03T19:04:26.460000+00:00,UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Wow there are way more scientists than poets here. Unless I missed in the very thorough insect discussion:
|
| 25 |
+
Potatoes and",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:34:49.983000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So tempting to dump $1000 into this market and make back all my losses. If you ask me, team NO looks like a bunch of hat",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T02:09:26.681000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Alright YES bettors, we're going to need to collude to get this to resolve YES. How do we get rid of the large limit ord",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:50:58.710000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Can’t they get filled then leave you with YES shares you don’t want right before market close if it never hits 10?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would
|
| 30 |
+
tweet,
|
| 31 |
+
it is about what I would
|
| 32 |
+
write.
|
| 33 |
+
Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:49:18.163000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"N/A’d my similar market for “The Market”, so FYI, these might get cancelled.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:03:18.348000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","ffs, guess i really do need a notif bot if i wanna stay in leaderboard",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-31T07:12:20.117000+00:00,IlNh872qWRRPWZeLrxaBv01MfhX2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"To start with conclusion, there are more legs than eyes on the earth (roughly five times as many):
|
| 37 |
+
Eyes~2,0*10^20
|
| 38 |
+
Legs",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:52:41.613000+00:00,1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I adore that
|
| 40 |
+
would have to (currently) sift through 2400 timestamps in order to resolve this market",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:51:39.224000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",How about if I write it and Aella posts it for me?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:46:21.928000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Buddy. That's not how whaling works.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:59:27.856000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","As penance for writing this, I may unlist this market...",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T12:12:27.142000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,i cant bet on this either. ive been placing limit orders and even market orders fine most of today. this market bugged f,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:55:23.041000+00:00,TaBBZBJIBPPa9snS1uwcTKvpxND3,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"If we take the assumption that the definition of an eye is ""some organic substance that converts light data into informa",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T22:06:36.018000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I
|
| 47 |
+
can do it. (We should probably make the option available to all market creators though.)",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-15T22:05:51.268000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That's the play lol. They actually just want to make mana on NO, but they're trying to convince you that they really car",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting.
|
| 50 |
+
",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-02T06:18:58.600000+00:00,9zpaWIkLNJcfx5kKfEV7Xb5Pq732,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Is this limited to @ESYudkowsky, or would any tweet authored by him apply? EY doesn’t deny having other X accounts, as a",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:20:20.600000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","really! hmm.
|
| 53 |
+
btw how did you manage to make 4k this week even without this? Is it just that your second largest positio",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:08:22.622000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What if I don't tweet the word as text and instead tweet a picture containing the word?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T22:53:43.691000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,But will you watch a good movie by 9/16?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:55:02.235000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Thanks. Ah yeah, looks like you were buying into massive limit orders there.
|
| 58 |
+
Would be nice to have a sort be able to f",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T14:39:01.240000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, you must post the tweet for the market to resolve YES.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-04-20T19:28:14.645000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","You do not know, but it is disgusting to talk like this. If you know what ""bussy"" is, it is a mashup of this and rationa",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-05T22:01:59.113000+00:00,4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The insider-trade bounty is currently about M$500, which I predict is not enough to compensate him for that particular i",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:24:41.029000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","btw i think limits are more efficient away from 50%, it costs more to break through",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-12T04:20:50.075000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Foot (prose) seems to be the biggest super-scale abstract thing to have snuck through so far. Considering all metered co,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:17:32.567000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"wow i wanna start an anti-caleb""ditch field"" polymarket account aahhhhhh imma be richhh",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-16T20:04:55.652000+00:00,xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think ""CFAR'd freak"" alone makes you a criminal mastermind. Like, this is brilliant, but also you should be jailed.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:52:36.163000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",There's also the question of my discount rate.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-13T20:46:50.488000+00:00,uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Butterflies don't have 12000 eyes, they have two compound eyes.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T06:47:57.195000+00:00,LUMGSSCpqrXkDxsGmWAl7O4Nxez1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Can't bet on this, I'm getting an error when placing bet or limit order. Tried a few times the last 2 hours",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:52:13.194000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh right, it's probably different for me because I have a large limit order at 11%, so you would have to bet through tha",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-11-02T16:06:16.709000+00:00,aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Some thoughts on insect eyes. Do we count ocelli?
|
| 72 |
+
Even counting compound eyes as 1 eye, this does not seem like a slam ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-01T22:19:59.560000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Extended for ya as we went thorugh New Year's markets,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines
|
| 75 |
+
yup!
|
| 76 |
+
Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […]
|
| 77 |
+
Holding positions which",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-24T12:43:05.925000+00:00,XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"In practice, users of this term probably wouldn't consider micro-wind directions as ""eyes."" They might not even consider",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:28:12.956000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Unlike limit orders at 11, the ones at 10 are risk-free",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 81 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) house.
|
| 82 |
+
There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T09:57:26.435000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The way the transformation described, it’s hard to tell how much randomness it adds. For all we know the transformation ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-05-04T22:25:10.322000+00:00,CWChdPylvrViBJ46NcIbGcK1qDa2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",">does it have to be on his main account, or can it also be on an alt?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles...
|
| 13 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True,True,22979.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 24 |
+
Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 32 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 34 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,decrease,False,True,575.2945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 39 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,decrease,True,True,81.3613,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 47 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 48 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 51 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 55 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 57 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 58 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 62 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 65 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True,True,76345.9371,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,hold,False,True,399.6291,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True,True,3259.3587,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 83 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 84 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True,True,526.3571,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 87 |
+
selling all my
|
| 88 |
+
NO
|
| 89 |
+
shares
|
| 90 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1668.7756,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 94 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 98 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 99 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 101 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 103 |
+
too
|
| 104 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 108 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 113 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21
|
| 119 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 120 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False,True,132.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 128 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 134 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 3 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True
|
| 4 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"they think we're in shambles...
|
| 5 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True
|
| 6 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,hold,True
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 8 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 9 |
+
too
|
| 10 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,hold,True
|
| 11 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,hold,True
|
| 12 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,hold,True
|
| 13 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 14 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False
|
| 15 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 16 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False
|
| 17 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 18 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False
|
| 19 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True
|
| 20 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 21 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 22 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 24 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False
|
| 25 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 26 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True
|
| 27 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 28 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False
|
| 29 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,hold,False
|
| 30 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False
|
| 31 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 32 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 33 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False
|
| 34 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,hold,False
|
| 35 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 36 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True
|
| 37 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,hold,True
|
| 38 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Decomposition markets:
|
| 39 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 40 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 41 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,decrease,False
|
| 42 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 43 |
+
Al",hold,hold,True
|
| 44 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 45 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 46 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 47 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True
|
| 48 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False
|
| 49 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,decrease,False
|
| 50 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 51 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,hold,True
|
| 52 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,hold,False
|
| 53 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 55 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False
|
| 56 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False
|
| 57 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 58 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True
|
| 59 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 61 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False
|
| 62 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,hold,True
|
| 64 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 65 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False
|
| 66 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 67 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True
|
| 68 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 69 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,hold,True
|
| 70 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False
|
| 3 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True
|
| 4 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"they think we're in shambles...
|
| 5 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True
|
| 6 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,hold,True
|
| 7 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True
|
| 8 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 9 |
+
too
|
| 10 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False
|
| 11 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,flip,False
|
| 12 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,hold,True
|
| 13 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 14 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True
|
| 15 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 16 |
+
https://mani",flip,flip,True
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,flip,True
|
| 18 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False
|
| 19 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True
|
| 20 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True
|
| 21 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,hold,False
|
| 22 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False
|
| 23 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,hold,True
|
| 24 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True
|
| 25 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 26 |
+
I have seen m",hold,flip,False
|
| 27 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 28 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,hold,False
|
| 29 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False
|
| 31 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False
|
| 32 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 33 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True
|
| 34 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,hold,True
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,hold,False
|
| 36 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,flip,False
|
| 37 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 38 |
+
Al",hold,hold,True
|
| 39 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 40 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 41 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 42 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True
|
| 43 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False
|
| 44 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True
|
| 45 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False
|
| 46 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False
|
| 47 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True
|
| 48 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,"12/21
|
| 49 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 50 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False
|
| 51 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,hold,False
|
| 52 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True
|
| 53 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True
|
| 54 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,hold,False
|
| 55 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True
|
| 56 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False
|
| 57 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,hold,False
|
| 58 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False
|
| 59 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,hold,True
|
| 60 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False
|
| 61 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 62 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 63 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False
|
| 64 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 65 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True
|
| 66 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False
|
| 67 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False
|
| 68 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles...
|
| 13 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True,True,22979.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 24 |
+
Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 32 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 34 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,decrease,False,True,575.2945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 39 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,decrease,True,True,81.3613,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 47 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 48 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 51 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 55 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 57 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 58 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 62 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 65 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True,True,76345.9371,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,hold,False,True,399.6291,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True,True,3259.3587,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 83 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 84 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True,True,526.3571,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 87 |
+
selling all my
|
| 88 |
+
NO
|
| 89 |
+
shares
|
| 90 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1668.7756,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 94 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 98 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 99 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 101 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 103 |
+
too
|
| 104 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 108 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 113 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21
|
| 119 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 120 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False,True,132.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 128 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 134 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles...
|
| 13 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True,True,22979.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 24 |
+
Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 32 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 34 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,decrease,False,True,575.2945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 39 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,decrease,True,True,81.3613,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 47 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 48 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 51 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 55 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 57 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 58 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 62 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 65 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True,True,76345.9371,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,hold,False,True,399.6291,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True,True,3259.3587,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 83 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 84 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True,True,526.3571,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 87 |
+
selling all my
|
| 88 |
+
NO
|
| 89 |
+
shares
|
| 90 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1668.7756,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 94 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 98 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 99 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 101 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 103 |
+
too
|
| 104 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 108 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 113 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21
|
| 119 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 120 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False,True,132.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 128 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 134 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles...
|
| 13 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True,True,22979.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 24 |
+
Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 32 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 34 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,decrease,False,True,575.2945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 39 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,decrease,True,True,81.3613,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 47 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 48 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 51 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 55 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 57 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 58 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 62 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 65 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True,True,76345.9371,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,hold,False,True,399.6291,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True,True,3259.3587,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 83 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 84 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True,True,526.3571,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 87 |
+
selling all my
|
| 88 |
+
NO
|
| 89 |
+
shares
|
| 90 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1668.7756,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 94 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 98 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 99 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 101 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 103 |
+
too
|
| 104 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 108 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 113 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21
|
| 119 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 120 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False,True,132.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 128 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 134 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:08:41.666000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,There's still time to join Team Moloch,decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 8 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 9 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:42:11.670000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",i really want to know how you talk in real life,hold,hold,True,True,21288.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:07:40.280000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Exactly, that's why the market needs be
|
| 17 |
+
above
|
| 18 |
+
49.55 %. Then the resulting average will be be > 50 %.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9558,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",decrease,decrease,True,True,544.3606,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T11:09:40.299000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","that would be reward hacking. But perhaps this question, in its current wording, assumes far too much yudlignment.",hold,decrease,False,True,96.196,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,flip,flip,True,True,225.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:01:00.279000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There's absolutely no way this can flip. This is not your typical ""person who spends the most wins"" market, because reso",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T07:23:31.524000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Gotchya, yeah been there. What helped me was to put away electronics before bed except listening device, and listen to s",flip,hold,False,True,184.5307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:49:29.421000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"No, arbbot will keep them in sync",hold,flip,False,True,0.4555,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-11T06:06:29.431000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So I can expect to see you watch matrix at least another 5 times before this is over,flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:20:59.630000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the boxes are the same and red can be still be 375. Not sure what points you are looking at,decrease,hold,False,True,1157.892,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,flip,True,True,5808.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:47:16.155000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been 3% since GPT-P's last comment 5h 30m ago:
|
| 46 |
+
Average so far is 42.2%
|
| 47 |
+
Remaining possible range o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by
|
| 49 |
+
below (link no longer working), here's my script:
|
| 50 |
+
https",decrease,decrease,True,True,4356.3232,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 52 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 54 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 55 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 58 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:18:33.451000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I would just like to say that this market is a low stakes version of what leads to stuff like the Gamestop stock crazine,flip,hold,False,True,635.6755,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T00:04:28.002000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","> aight there goes my entire account ig
|
| 61 |
+
play stupid zero-sum games win stupid zero-sum prizes (I am still at -529 profi",hold,flip,False,True,967.3867,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T18:41:58.112000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Galen is going to need a little help. They’re draining their balance.,flip,decrease,False,True,223.3596,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 66 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T12:53:03.347000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","""Note by the way that Manifold's charity program comes out of a charity grant, so they're not really proper counterfactu",flip,hold,False,True,275.347,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T13:47:39.859000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",If you continue to post spam you will be blocked.,flip,hold,False,True,72.0706,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 72 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,decrease,False,True,399.6291,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T12:33:07.138000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Caveat: I am not your statistician, I am not even
|
| 75 |
+
a
|
| 76 |
+
statistician, and this is not statistical advice. Do your own MC",flip,decrease,False,True,5.095,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:40:49.912000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Since this market started,
|
| 79 |
+
Darj has watched
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
1.12 movies per day on average
|
| 82 |
+
. (93 movies / 83 days)
|
| 83 |
+
Darj must wat",flip,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:35:58.984000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the problem is... box size may not be 400. Try box size of 375 now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 93 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T16:45:24.579000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he tweets something else and then uses inspect element, then deleted the tweet? Can we prove to whether a tweet ",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 96 |
+
selling all my
|
| 97 |
+
NO
|
| 98 |
+
shares
|
| 99 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 102 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 104 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:00:06.619000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I dunno... defect -- ""to cease or change one's loyalty, especially from a military organisation or political party,"" if ",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:53:59.978000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Still can't believe I that I introduced ripley's K function that showed Green was Fake, and then bought NO :(",decrease,decrease,True,True,1513.3765,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 109 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 111 |
+
too
|
| 112 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:31:26.020000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"As long as we are all negotiating with financial terrorists, I will accept a bribe of 1000 mana to not report the market",decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 116 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:26:20.574000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what’s the average in the ~1.5h since the last update below? I eyeballed it at 1.5% in my formula,decrease,decrease,True,True,544.3606,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:49:45.465000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Wow what a boring market. It hasnt moved massively in a full hour!,decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T06:43:55.533000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","yeah, looking at the scatter for the green and red separately, there is a missing corner in one but not the other, which",flip,decrease,False,True,27.2604,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:58:58.673000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Really? I don't think it should count if it's not from Eliezer's own account. The market wasn't about whether he would
|
| 125 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:49:47.128000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"For anyone considering which team to join, I'd recommend you DM a member of both teams in order to hear both pitches. Yo",flip,hold,False,True,9033.6091,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:05:43.320000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I'll give Ṁ50,000 for you to resolve it N/A just to piss off the whales who put a lot of effort into winning, and the wh",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 133 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:00:29.682000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",someone run the numbers and figure out what is the probability of a distribution of 90 points not occupying the top deci,decrease,hold,False,True,19.3508,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,decrease,True,True,1313.3765,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:02:14.934000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"New bounty for everyone who maintains their 1-59 NO bid or deflects to 1-59 NO.
|
| 138 |
+
https://manifold.markets/121/bet-no-1-t",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 139 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 140 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 141 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:10:58.822000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was commenting on your ""at least 50%"" wording. I know, nitpicky.",decrease,hold,False,True,140.3736,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet
|
| 3 |
+
On Manifold Markets, not just yet
|
| 4 |
+
Put this market right in your face
|
| 5 |
+
(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,decrease,False,True,195.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles...
|
| 13 |
+
as if",hold,hold,True,True,22979.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True,True,879.5409,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.
|
| 24 |
+
Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True,True,2225.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun.
|
| 32 |
+
I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if
|
| 34 |
+
said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,decrease,False,True,575.2945,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 38 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now.
|
| 39 |
+
I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,decrease,True,True,81.3613,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago:
|
| 47 |
+
Average so far is 42.6
|
| 48 |
+
Remaining possible range of o",decrease,decrease,True,True,3553.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw.
|
| 51 |
+
I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,hold,False,True,17519.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr.
|
| 55 |
+
and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 56 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night.
|
| 57 |
+
My friends: What were you doing?
|
| 58 |
+
Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly:
|
| 62 |
+
https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO.
|
| 65 |
+
Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,decrease,False,True,855.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,flip,True,True,76345.9371,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,hold,False,True,399.6291,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True,True,53.3043,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,decrease,False,True,2976.045,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True,True,3259.3587,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets:
|
| 83 |
+
https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close
|
| 84 |
+
https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True,True,526.3571,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by
|
| 87 |
+
selling all my
|
| 88 |
+
NO
|
| 89 |
+
shares
|
| 90 |
+
""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1668.7756,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points.
|
| 94 |
+
I have seen m",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,flip,False,True,50082.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about:
|
| 98 |
+
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody)
|
| 99 |
+
Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway.
|
| 101 |
+
One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear
|
| 103 |
+
too
|
| 104 |
+
uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395]
|
| 108 |
+
This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines
|
| 113 |
+
with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21
|
| 119 |
+
13:31:10 - Present
|
| 120 |
+
3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,hold,False,True,132.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True,True,51.0753,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl
|
| 128 |
+
Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information.
|
| 134 |
+
https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.5700000000000002,0.8999999999999999,0.32999999999999974,UP,0.5096667286961641,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",43,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.5600000000000003,0.210615330820779,-0.3493846691792213,DOWN,0.02630950595085175,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,10,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.40000000000000013,0.0096999069400511,-0.39030009305994906,DOWN,0.9907765811722926,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",69,DOWN,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.12000000000000001,0.1099999999999999,-0.010000000000000106,DOWN,0.06594908031472556,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,18,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.6923076923076925,1.0,0.3076923076923075,UP,0.31729927104242495,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,34,UP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.3111991809470713,0.2787657022068996,-0.03243347874017166,DOWN,0.7328340565763029,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.5603456332749157,0.6804142804139734,0.12006864713905774,UP,0.11647902239879451,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.5700000000000002,0.9013349211139413,0.33133492111394114,UP,0.35876014493054825,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",163,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.12,0.1099999999999999,-0.010000000000000092,DOWN,0.08215356409258556,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,58,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.40000000000000013,0.39288902009896115,-0.007110979901038983,DOWN,0.11183491793911833,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",87,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
5,0.4000000000000002,0.13944740633442765,-0.26055259366557254,DOWN,0.6768153317207741,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",132,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
6,0.420057757941717,0.7091723556264884,0.2891145976847714,UP,0.9589926984096869,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,14,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
7,0.6923076923076924,0.3644316282934632,-0.3278760640142292,DOWN,0.29445378093275903,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,7,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
8,0.5600000000000002,0.20812459502961908,-0.35187540497038106,DOWN,0.13199590171004272,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,33,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
9,0.6923076923076925,0.5938935846903416,-0.09841410761735092,DOWN,0.7276835844496373,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,34,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
10,0.4000000000000002,0.7276768131828947,0.3276768131828945,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
11,0.3111991809470713,0.5468743933878262,0.2356752124407549,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/commitment_validity_manifold_economics.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/economics",
|
| 3 |
+
"wrong_bettor_test": {
|
| 4 |
+
"n_hp": 120,
|
| 5 |
+
"n_wrong_bettors": 67,
|
| 6 |
+
"wrong_bettor_rate": 0.5583,
|
| 7 |
+
"n_directional": 44,
|
| 8 |
+
"n_follows_commitment": 23,
|
| 9 |
+
"n_follows_truth": 21,
|
| 10 |
+
"pct_follows_commitment": 0.5227,
|
| 11 |
+
"binom_p": 0.4402,
|
| 12 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 13 |
+
},
|
| 14 |
+
"dose_response": {
|
| 15 |
+
"n_hp_directional": 75,
|
| 16 |
+
"quartiles": [
|
| 17 |
+
{
|
| 18 |
+
"label": "Q1(最小)",
|
| 19 |
+
"da": 0.1579,
|
| 20 |
+
"n": 19,
|
| 21 |
+
"median_position_size": 40.0,
|
| 22 |
+
"binom_p": 0.9996,
|
| 23 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 24 |
+
},
|
| 25 |
+
{
|
| 26 |
+
"label": "Q2",
|
| 27 |
+
"da": 0.5789,
|
| 28 |
+
"n": 19,
|
| 29 |
+
"median_position_size": 500.0,
|
| 30 |
+
"binom_p": 0.3238,
|
| 31 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
{
|
| 34 |
+
"label": "Q3",
|
| 35 |
+
"da": 0.7222,
|
| 36 |
+
"n": 18,
|
| 37 |
+
"median_position_size": 3041.18,
|
| 38 |
+
"binom_p": 0.0481,
|
| 39 |
+
"significant": true
|
| 40 |
+
},
|
| 41 |
+
{
|
| 42 |
+
"label": "Q4(最大)",
|
| 43 |
+
"da": 0.5263,
|
| 44 |
+
"n": 19,
|
| 45 |
+
"median_position_size": 19878.76,
|
| 46 |
+
"binom_p": 0.5,
|
| 47 |
+
"significant": false
|
| 48 |
+
}
|
| 49 |
+
],
|
| 50 |
+
"csd_q4_q1": 0.3684,
|
| 51 |
+
"mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.0261,
|
| 52 |
+
"significant": true
|
| 53 |
+
}
|
| 54 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/did_manifold_economics.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/economics",
|
| 3 |
+
"n_pre_directional": 10,
|
| 4 |
+
"n_post_directional": 75,
|
| 5 |
+
"da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.3,
|
| 6 |
+
"da_post_gt_resolution": 0.4667,
|
| 7 |
+
"da_post_gt_position": 0.4933,
|
| 8 |
+
"did": 0.1667,
|
| 9 |
+
"paired_sign_test": {
|
| 10 |
+
"skip": "n_pairs=1<10"
|
| 11 |
+
},
|
| 12 |
+
"wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.4773
|
| 13 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
|
| 8 |
+
https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right (
|
| 8 |
+
https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,ENx8k1v4KnXy90vvKLDNPaDvaQS2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,YES,NO,False,True,20.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country:
|
| 4 |
+
Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:28:40.092000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,are you suggesting the EU would expropriate the existing US owned infrastructure? That's one way of making it happen I g,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,V1fg6BxH4xSEAv2tgdpVzSpfEKf1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",NO,NO,True,True,200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T05:33:36.081000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The China tariffs are really happening,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,YES,NO,False,True,12400.1352,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T05:52:01.519000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yep agree
|
| 10 |
+
I already have positions on these two markets
|
| 11 |
+
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-next-change-to-t",YES,YES,True,True,18470.9406,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T19:09:28.427000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"To those buying YES, why stonk market up so bigly? Either tariffs don't matter, or market doesn't beleive in them.",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:17:50.170000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it was 10-20% broad based tariffs excluding FTA countries and 60-100% on China based on previous indications. The Can/Me,NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9872.0608,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25670.9364,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T23:04:46.353000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD
|
| 18 |
+
It is!
|
| 19 |
+
We're talking about Manifold, right?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,71888.3299,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:56:16.133000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think you are underestimating how hard it is to do this stuff.
|
| 21 |
+
I do agree that the winds have changed, but politica",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:59:52.139000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Regarding the yield curve as measured by 10y2y treasury yield spread: it just disinverted.,YES,NO,False,True,1363.6765,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T21:39:57.607000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Funny - I was being told I was wrong for buying at sub 20% 🤷♂️,YES,NO,False,True,35721.9083,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:46:23.333000+00:00,IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:21:49.732000+00:00,8DSVFmhmsQZ9GOYcwsm7wXWkChj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Manifold seems to be resolving all cash markets to %, did I miss a memo?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,275.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:51:49.071000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Also clear indication that he doesn't give a flying fuck about the US tech sector 👀,YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-20T00:52:28.416000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Made a market for recession in the next 12 months:,NO,YES,False,True,3399.0244,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with
|
| 31 |
+
's interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 33 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this
|
| 35 |
+
Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",YES,NO,False,True,16559.9406,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,MoEBvYI6WlcczRrqeBK4zUxIkai1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no.
|
| 38 |
+
Q3 ends 9/30/25
|
| 39 |
+
Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8%
|
| 40 |
+
And pred",NO,NO,True,True,257.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 42 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-10T23:42:01.588000+00:00,VT1KulFQcVWiOf7ijXS27v2IKPZ2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Is the resolution criteria somehow different than this one?
|
| 43 |
+
https://manifold.markets/EternalSunrise/will-the-us-enter-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:28:34.626000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Other countries could retaliate against the US by applying matching export tariffs to help Trump out.,NO,NO,True,True,31738.6582,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T19:10:56.467000+00:00,fZYRUJ6WmSRuKaZEDmBJrVihirz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,then why are you not buying more?,YES,NO,False,True,300.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-09T15:50:14.701000+00:00,2GVmvvpDoEX21up5OvknE74dMn63,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Based on predictions from various banks and institutions the likelihood to enter a recession in 2024 is given but statis,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-11T20:29:53.650000+00:00,ZbxkcMe5r2WzmQAw3Ioui0QehIf2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree with you Luciana:
|
| 49 |
+
Based on curent data, it seems more likely that the US economy will continue to grow in 202",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 50 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,32294.948,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8000.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 55 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,125371.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets:
|
| 59 |
+
Here: min of 13% in May, now 21%
|
| 60 |
+
Kalshi
|
| 61 |
+
: min of 7% in April, now 11%
|
| 62 |
+
Metacu",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1163.6765,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,YES,NO,False,True,19878.762,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,f74euu1KZrh5m8usE4tAieA2c8z2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:47:08.736000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it makes American goods similarly attractive to Israeli goods.,NO,NO,True,True,31688.6582,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:19:36.037000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what do you think would be the main limiting factors?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:37:06.014000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I see you've already revised your 2-3 year timeline,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:15:25.437000+00:00,2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show,NO,NO,True,True,814.8644,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 70 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",YES,YES,True,True,30611.8738,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 71 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18.671,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T13:51:57.704000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why turnips rather than long-life dried and tinned food?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:07:39.246000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,YES,YES,True,True,17997.1352,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:43:29.582000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Initially just capacity. It takes years to just build the low level hardware and physical datacenters. Then you need to ,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,MUAXMrPP9lePZaL5gIWaPYt8eAJ3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 79 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,399.899,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T02:26:20.389000+00:00,6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there's almost no ev in betting in that market though, no liquidity, low confidence predictor",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2000.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T22:02:36.196000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah! And to be clear, if it did happen it would be awesome!",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:51:40.981000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"lol, whatever. Not interested in discussing your love for a bullshitter. Point is you can never be sure he'll do what he",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:41:47.807000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's unfair because a foreign company selling in the US will not face a VAT. That's what I mean by 'from the US perspect,NO,NO,True,True,576.6927,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:19:24.169000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This is the first I've heard that claim being made. For those interested in US trade policy (there are dozens of us!) , ",NO,NO,True,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 87 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:24:54.383000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"From the
|
| 89 |
+
NYT
|
| 90 |
+
:
|
| 91 |
+
Mexican officials did not immediately react, but the announcement most likely did not come as a surpr",YES,YES,True,True,613.3469,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,YES,NO,False,True,813.3469,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:44:02.898000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Hey, I liked
|
| 95 |
+
On Bullshit
|
| 96 |
+
but his take on Trump is so bad. I see the article is from 2016. I would have agreed with h",NO,NO,True,True,5600.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:56:34.346000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exc",NO,NO,True,True,5700.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-04T04:22:41.701000+00:00,hjU629P5HnP5sv0bdEkHZKjHDzO2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,16% seems about right to me but I imagine it’s going to head back up to 20% before dropping after the Q1 gdp estimate,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:54:32.579000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The article is from Harry Frankfurt, a prominent philosopher, as opposed to a bullshitting con artist who says things th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,310.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 100 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:40:58.161000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"well no, that doesn't make any sense. There is no perspective from which VAT is ""unfair"" to US companies. It's just bull",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting
|
| 102 |
+
Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,750.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports?
|
| 104 |
+
Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",NO,NO,True,True,2654.4823,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the
|
| 106 |
+
Trump ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11319.3406,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T04:15:21.508000+00:00,HqrpTpHAK6WvpZ8pnF50UTt2L9k2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a market for Canada related news specifically:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5400.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T03:01:32.377000+00:00,91fBGlgGoVTCwIQzLJ8IwVABwt43,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I think that market requires 2 quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024. This market is about ENTERING a recession, which",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 111 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 112 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",NO,NO,True,True,889.8625,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,YES,NO,False,True,200.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-05T13:57:29.222000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"although it's possible that the gains from trump's deregulation completely dominate any losses due to tarriffs, even bef",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T01:17:57.878000+00:00,IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"There is a large discrepancy between the 18% here and some probabilistic models:
|
| 117 |
+
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/ca",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-10T11:25:41.919000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""a promise is most useful when it is empty, and believe me these are the most tremendously empty promises, maybe ever"" -",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T00:15:58.823000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"idk, the people I talk to suggest what is most likely is:
|
| 120 |
+
1) no significant broad based tariffs in 2025
|
| 121 |
+
2) if China ta",NO,NO,True,True,3700.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19966.2654,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:55:35.302000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Look at that big beautiful smile. So happy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article:
|
| 126 |
+
https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,YES,NO,False,True,700.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 128 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:24:11.724000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Make a market for it, I'll bet it down to 10%. You have no idea what you're talking about",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-14T17:19:43.139000+00:00,be2HSDNbfPh1Mwytgl9O7upcr9n1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1
|
| 130 |
+
https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phras",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,YES,YES,True,True,4000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,323.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 133 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T16:33:04.392000+00:00,mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Y",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 134 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4893.9404,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 135 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",NO,NO,True,True,1999.0244,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 136 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 137 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,YES,NO,False,True,32527.762,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 138 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks
|
| 139 |
+
for the excellent write up.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,11949.3112,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 140 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4650.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 141 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-10-25T17:47:11.520000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/bond-market-misfires-with-warning-of-a-recession-that-never-came?embe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 142 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:02:28.040000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the claims were a bit vague, malachite you created a market that i think is vaguer and broader than might have been expe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 143 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T17:30:34.943000+00:00,p86tFDgKP6Ul7kbQsK2Bk9AYzq72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"My dad is no longer a federal government employee, but his friend who is still working for them says to expect a ""red ho",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 144 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",YES,NO,False,True,2063.6765,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 145 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,21966.2654,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 146 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T02:21:46.339000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The 10% is on top of other tariffs currently in place,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 147 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T16:57:23.097000+00:00,VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The inaccurate leak to Reuters ~1.5 hours before the announcement at the press conference is exactly the optimal strateg,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 148 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",NO,NO,True,True,5400.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 149 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",NO,NO,True,True,39205.5098,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 150 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-11T22:14:07.904000+00:00,Gvwjp5nKj4OWeHO4c7aNnZMVMYk1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering that ""consumer spending"" makes up nearly 68% of the US GDP, a major indicator of economic stability, and tha",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 151 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",YES,NO,False,True,32361.8738,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 152 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T22:39:42.990000+00:00,6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 153 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 154 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",NO,NO,True,True,1315.2604,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 155 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-01T10:02:45.765000+00:00,KCq1ACNs49XA1HLzSwXuItJCVwU2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,What lack of patriotism! It's ne’er been a good bet to bet against America.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 156 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3045.7482,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 157 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,E94ly9xI4ShvCQBcZNlP9VaJssy1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 158 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T19:12:02.705000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my understanding is that Biden did nothing to reform this obvious opportunity for corruption.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 159 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",YES,NO,False,True,5999.3386,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 160 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:04:14.037000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with what you said except that you made some omissions:
|
| 161 |
+
You undersold the impact of the stock market on the eco",YES,NO,False,True,100.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 162 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-24T01:44:57.027000+00:00,1bKnYiYLg4ckh9iFzKOeuVcYJp73,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Talks of a recession began when the Federal Reserve began to increase interest rates amidst the 2022 inflation spike. Ov,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 163 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,142068.5666,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 164 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 165 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:40:24.846000+00:00,Sqc7LHvSzzcLUFpiLUuO3SlHlum1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It will be hard to declare a recession. Recessions are hard to present in circumstances like we are in right now. What i,YES,YES,True,True,1157.7466,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 166 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-12T19:03:31.498000+00:00,7R0P1zZXfodrBR2GHvWW9qG1YBe2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estima,YES,YES,True,True,2989.6062,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 167 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T06:45:52.686000+00:00,RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"putting that market aside (it's low liquidity but I think high enough that we should consider the option plausible), tho",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1350.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 168 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T16:17:28.421000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,read the description of the market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19843.7232,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 169 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 170 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:43:06.132000+00:00,Sqc7LHvSzzcLUFpiLUuO3SlHlum1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Productivity gains from AI in 2024-2030 hopefully will carry us out of this debt scare. Inflation will probably drop bec,YES,NO,False,True,1157.7466,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 171 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2654.4823,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 172 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,130179.179,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 173 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi?
|
| 174 |
+
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.0754,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 175 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-07T14:29:08.955000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"this market narrowly defines recession based on GDP growth though. If Q3 is positive, it resolves no.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 176 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 177 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T15:00:30.311000+00:00,Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"At this point, can we all agree that last week was a little bit of an overreaction?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,35152.4996,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 178 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 179 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 180 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:10:14.456000+00:00,kY5nqFqyXKWctEgAsm3KsQCeygv1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If a fool says he’ll do something, believe him.",YES,YES,True,True,500.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 181 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-13T16:35:05.716000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""I punch someone in the face and I'm utterly shocked when they punch me back""",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 182 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:31:39.217000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"How do you expect tariff negotiations to proceed?
|
| 183 |
+
Moving production to US seems like a process that will take several m",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 184 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:29:50.579000+00:00,IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes.
|
| 185 |
+
Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 186 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T03:37:52.932000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sounds like policy wise you’re advocating for a hands off approach to the situation after spending too much money on por,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,24.4501,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 187 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-10T16:49:20.321000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,look at the political strife in europe: now is the time to threaten them in order to make our vassals--uhh...i mean alli,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 188 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-23T01:58:37.519000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Please make note of the clarification above and in the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 189 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T23:16:34.437000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"A lot of movement in this market but less in mine:
|
| 190 |
+
https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 191 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:45:45.950000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I apologise for the incoherence, it was 4 am here when I wrote that, on mobile, in bed. But someone was wrong on the int",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 192 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-03-10T04:35:23.809000+00:00,NwhKkbaI24OtS6iZAGqjq8Wssp42,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 193 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",NO,NO,True,True,965.2996,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 194 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
|
| 195 |
+
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",YES,NO,False,True,912.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 196 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,653.1524,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 197 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T23:44:49.110000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Which US state is going to get hardest hit? Kentucky?,YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 198 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 199 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 200 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 201 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,300.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 202 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-16T00:47:07.441000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree that it's a suboptimal criteria, and I also suspect most traders dont actually think it's an important differenc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4700.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 203 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T02:45:27.983000+00:00,y0ZRYqguQQU3W2wD87kFsgT9M4j2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"But
|
| 204 |
+
Trump said
|
| 205 |
+
he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to de",YES,NO,False,True,350.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 206 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-16T04:22:19.157000+00:00,7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're at 245% tariff for China now!
|
| 207 |
+
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump",YES,NO,False,True,6825.4029,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 208 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:09.801000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I work on Azure, so I'm familiar with the current situation for Microsoft. There are already significant regulatory requ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 209 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:43:22.960000+00:00,iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why the decline from 80% to 65% today? What news am I missing?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 210 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,YES,NO,False,True,3092.7622,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 211 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 212 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:27.761000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"thats ridiculous. Where are you going to run your infrastructure, on Alibaba? To build a serious European replacement wo",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 213 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T01:28:08.502000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a hard time figuring how real world events are causing the fluctuations in this market.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 214 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2063.6765,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 215 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:01:13.352000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Hmm Does zero imports at 104% tariff raise much tax revenue or increase the weighted average tariff rate much?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 216 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T06:49:55.268000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
|
| 217 |
+
move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 218 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:51:05.189000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's ok, your explanation seems reasonable, the only minor problem was the borderline aggressive back-and-forth with the",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 219 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T15:09:02.878000+00:00,ukL5lNPcrmUATx7ox105gFFXcZH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I don’t believe there is going to be a recession soon in US. Just some data:
|
| 220 |
+
- GDP annual growth: +2.1% for 2Q",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 221 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T14:50:10.667000+00:00,ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"No it’s just a dip, back up at 3:30, just enjoy the ride. 😜",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,60.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 222 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T23:52:33.646000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation ch,NO,NO,True,True,5700.0,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 223 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:42:06.741000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Higher tariff on Canada than on China is some '5D chess',NO,NO,True,True,1604.4823,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 224 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 225 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 226 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T14:30:18.183000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,at a volume of $4000? Highly doubtful,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 227 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,WVKuwUDgUoNtoDP4DYly17sHOlX2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,YES,NO,False,True,452.6335,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 228 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",NO,NO,True,True,5738.1803,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 229 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",NO,YES,False,True,168899.8091,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 230 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:00:04.173000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,does it also mean they will drop tariffs for those that don't charge nearly any tariffs?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 231 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,hjU629P5HnP5sv0bdEkHZKjHDzO2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 232 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:09:57.981000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I highly doubt that. First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or ",NO,NO,True,True,21966.2654,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1_did_pre.csv
ADDED
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+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T02:51:34.610000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,In 2019 I was spending roughly $250 per month on onlyfans but now in 2024 Im spending on average $2784 per month. This i,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,f74euu1KZrh5m8usE4tAieA2c8z2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T23:07:06.300000+00:00,d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative.
|
| 11 |
+
Did you mean to say ""GDP growth is negativ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T15:04:03.339000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I don't think the conclusion either of bagel or jack have come to are illogical, but I'm a bit sad regardless.
|
| 13 |
+
I find i",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:31:57.958000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Thanks for answering. Sorry if I missed it, I skimmed over the transcript, but sorry (I'll be honest) I'm not gonna read",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-19T06:01:13.255000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Can you update the market description in line with the discussion thread below? This market has 100s of traders and gett,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with
|
| 18 |
+
's interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T01:22:20.341000+00:00,aShHYtkAbMWD0jr7aDp6JjbtiBz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So today we saw what was maybe(?) a threat to apply export tariffs to food. How does that factor in?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T02:20:35.559000+00:00,AT1VMTXOjgfvefR3h71sAQ3NdZV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Should this be taken seriously? I'm not trying to throw shade, but I find it quite weird that this has been given a dead",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T00:43:44.583000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,according to anonymous sources.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T23:16:00.493000+00:00,dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Would crush the CCP more if the tariffs were targeted at just them, and not America’s allies too.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T17:26:34.439000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/DanW/will-a-ps5-cost-10-more-to-us-consu
|
| 27 |
+
I made a specific version of this market for the cost",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,flip,False,True,21966.2654,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,decrease,False,True,372.3533,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 20 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 25 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable
|
| 28 |
+
at least
|
| 29 |
+
as long as it i",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 31 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True,True,34837.737,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,flip,False,True,1163.6765,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 35 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 38 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,decrease,False,True,8000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 42 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 50 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,hold,False,True,21605.0061,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
|
| 53 |
+
Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 56 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that.
|
| 60 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 62 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.899,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by
|
| 74 |
+
's interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,flip,False,True,613.3469,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 87 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW:
|
| 99 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 100 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 106 |
+
incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 119 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 122 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,flip,False,True,2272.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 3 |
+
incredible",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 4 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 7 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 9 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False
|
| 10 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True
|
| 11 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,decrease,False
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 13 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 15 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,hold,False
|
| 16 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 17 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 18 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False
|
| 19 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True
|
| 20 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False
|
| 21 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False
|
| 23 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,hold,True
|
| 24 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 25 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True
|
| 26 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 27 |
+
https://manifold",hold,decrease,False
|
| 28 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 29 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 30 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 31 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,hold,False
|
| 32 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True
|
| 33 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,"yeah i get that.
|
| 34 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True
|
| 35 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 36 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False
|
| 37 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 38 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,hold,True
|
| 39 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,decrease,False
|
| 40 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 42 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 43 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 44 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 45 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,decrease,True
|
| 46 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False
|
| 47 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False
|
| 48 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,decrease,False
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 50 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 52 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 53 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False
|
| 54 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 55 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,decrease,True
|
| 56 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False
|
| 59 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,"FWIW:
|
| 60 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 61 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False
|
| 62 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,hold,True
|
| 63 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True
|
| 64 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv
ADDED
|
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,hold,False
|
| 3 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True
|
| 4 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 6 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,flip,False
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False
|
| 10 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 11 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False
|
| 15 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False
|
| 17 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 18 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 19 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False
|
| 20 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True
|
| 21 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,hold,True
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 23 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 25 |
+
https://manifold",hold,flip,False
|
| 26 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,hold,False
|
| 27 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False
|
| 28 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 29 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False
|
| 30 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True
|
| 31 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True
|
| 32 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,"yeah i get that.
|
| 33 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True
|
| 34 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False
|
| 35 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True
|
| 36 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 37 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,flip,False
|
| 38 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False
|
| 39 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False
|
| 40 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 41 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,hold,False
|
| 42 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 43 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,hold,True
|
| 44 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False
|
| 45 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False
|
| 46 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False
|
| 47 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False
|
| 48 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 49 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,hold,True
|
| 50 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False
|
| 51 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False
|
| 52 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False
|
| 53 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,hold,False
|
| 55 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True
|
| 56 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 57 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,flip,True
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,hold,False
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,hold,True
|
| 60 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False
|
| 61 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True
|
| 62 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 63 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,flip,False
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,flip,False,True,21966.2654,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,decrease,False,True,372.3533,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 20 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 25 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable
|
| 28 |
+
at least
|
| 29 |
+
as long as it i",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 31 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True,True,34837.737,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,flip,False,True,1163.6765,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 35 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 38 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,decrease,False,True,8000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 42 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 50 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,hold,False,True,21605.0061,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
|
| 53 |
+
Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 56 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that.
|
| 60 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 62 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.899,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by
|
| 74 |
+
's interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,flip,False,True,613.3469,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 87 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW:
|
| 99 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 100 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 106 |
+
incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 119 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 122 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,flip,False,True,2272.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,flip,False,True,21966.2654,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,decrease,False,True,372.3533,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 20 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 25 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable
|
| 28 |
+
at least
|
| 29 |
+
as long as it i",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 31 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True,True,34837.737,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,flip,False,True,1163.6765,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 35 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 38 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,decrease,False,True,8000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 42 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 50 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,hold,False,True,21605.0061,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
|
| 53 |
+
Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 56 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that.
|
| 60 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 62 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.899,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by
|
| 74 |
+
's interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,flip,False,True,613.3469,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 87 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW:
|
| 99 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 100 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 106 |
+
incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 119 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 122 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,flip,False,True,2272.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv
ADDED
|
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,flip,False,True,21966.2654,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,decrease,False,True,372.3533,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 20 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 25 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable
|
| 28 |
+
at least
|
| 29 |
+
as long as it i",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 31 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True,True,34837.737,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,flip,False,True,1163.6765,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 35 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 38 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,decrease,False,True,8000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 42 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 50 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,hold,False,True,21605.0061,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
|
| 53 |
+
Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 56 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that.
|
| 60 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 62 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.899,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by
|
| 74 |
+
's interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,flip,False,True,613.3469,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 87 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW:
|
| 99 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 100 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 106 |
+
incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 119 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 122 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,flip,False,True,2272.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-07-30T18:30:43.114000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Assuming Callum Williams uses the FRED link again this already seems to resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,1991.6987,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T20:24:46.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think this is going to spike on ""liberation day"". Tariff Man loves headlines, so whatever the market expects he wants ",decrease,flip,False,True,26029.0033,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-07-29T11:15:42.870000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/27/economy/us-pet-surrenders-shelters-economy
|
| 5 |
+
More people give up on their pets.",decrease,hold,False,True,12.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:06:03.429000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Yes I think that's the case. But happy to leave any dispute on this to others as I have a large position here - though t,increase,flip,False,True,125371.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:30:25.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"mate it's commodities driven
|
| 8 |
+
Rate expectations adjusting already + Japan will have to intervene on the yen which will k",increase,flip,False,True,18461.9406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T21:11:08.355000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Arb (though this market should be higher, not equal) with:",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T21:53:09.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If it's the case that users are buying YES on the Colombia news then that's a bad interpretation, imo.",decrease,hold,False,True,17286.5969,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,flip,False,True,1218.3102,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 20 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 22 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:14:20.648000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Whilst this is true it doesn't really point to a recession. Inflation falling faster than expected would mean demand had,increase,decrease,False,True,7569.5098,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 25 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 27 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 28 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 29 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T14:06:22.378000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What are we waiting for here exactly? For a Callum Williams tweet? For FRED to update?,increase,flip,False,True,1237.2312,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 31 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 32 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:50:00.166000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Wow, what a profound misunderstanding of Trump's rhetorical style (I might even label that article ""bullshit""). The term",hold,flip,False,True,5600.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 35 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-18T15:08:25.466000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Kalshi currently has 2% odds for negative q3 gdp growth,decrease,decrease,True,True,1586.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the
|
| 38 |
+
Trump ",flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs
|
| 40 |
+
This is tariffs
|
| 41 |
+
Welcome
|
| 42 |
+
This is tariffs
|
| 43 |
+
Welcome to tariffs
|
| 44 |
+
You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",increase,hold,False,True,186218.5666,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 46 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
|
| 48 |
+
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",increase,decrease,False,True,912.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:55:55.427000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I still don't agree with this argument. I'll only agree so far as to say that Q2 will be positive.
|
| 50 |
+
I know that having ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",decrease,hold,False,True,32294.948,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 53 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:17:39.269000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"it doesn't sound like you know much about cloud providers in the EU though, they would not be starting from scratch.",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:52:41.184000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Does it look like inflation will come down enough to cut rates without a recession after the last 3 months? Also forward,increase,flip,False,True,12400.1352,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks
|
| 56 |
+
for the excellent write up.",flip,hold,False,True,11949.3112,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,increase,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,increase,flip,False,True,32527.762,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 60 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 61 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 62 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:29:55.914000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is true. However, the limited data for the 10y3m spread only cover the the last 3 ""natural"" recessions (excluding C",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 63 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 64 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-07T01:20:41.896000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump liking the Tariffs like his Woman, the 15%. Ding dong Donny boy, we are here today looking for the list, have you ",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-13T01:53:27.601000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm nowhere near an expert but I can't figure out why people aren't at least talking about the fact that credit care Cha,increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 66 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-03T01:09:48.451000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Arb this. This market should be a bit lower than this other one due to probability of US entering recession Q4 2025:
|
| 67 |
+
",decrease,flip,False,True,1854.4375,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 74 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-02T16:00:06.090000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,my base case (~35% probability) second spike in oil prices and therefore inflation is gonna pull us into recession with ,increase,increase,True,True,16559.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T02:12:01.635000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The total U.S. average effective tariff rate is 17.8%
|
| 77 |
+
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/after-uk-china-trade-deals-tariff",hold,hold,True,True,134.2006,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country:
|
| 81 |
+
Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",increase,flip,False,True,912.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:22:22.365000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,decrease,hold,False,True,181.8293,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T11:50:58.743000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"interesting.
|
| 87 |
+
I have a set of reasons why I strongly think this market underpriced the risk - which I'm happy to explain",increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T23:31:59.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I wonder who they will blame when the US economy starts getting wrecked by all the retaliatory tariffs? Obama?,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model):
|
| 91 |
+
1.",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 92 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:58:25.666000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Your explanation still overlooks a fundamental point: you keep assuming that the infrastructure must be built entirely f,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 95 |
+
https://manifold",hold,flip,False,True,35721.9083,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T15:29:45.114000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I am talking about the stagflation market that Isar linked.,increase,flip,False,True,12400.1352,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T16:55:35.605000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"US tech companies are trivially replaceable. This is 2025, not 2015.",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 99 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone!
|
| 100 |
+
Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months).
|
| 101 |
+
Let me first summarize the
|
| 102 |
+
argum",increase,decrease,False,True,139.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T12:55:14.603000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Being appealed. There are other sources of tariff-raising powers. Did it double the chance of tariffs staying under 6% t,hold,decrease,False,True,21713.2614,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 106 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:11:21.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold users are more likely to think Trump is an idiot.,decrease,hold,False,True,31788.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:01:50.023000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"We should find a shorter term version to bet on, payout will take forever here",decrease,hold,False,True,14900.6484,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:53:59.575000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This comment says it's still a ways off from the target for this market:
|
| 112 |
+
https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-",increase,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,hold,False,True,97583.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 115 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T15:46:16.881000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they should go insider trade the stock market like proper criminals.,decrease,hold,False,True,32848.6018,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 119 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T22:29:12.221000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.",hold,hold,True,True,711.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 122 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-24T12:15:33.078000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"like the first term where he increased tariffs by 1%, trade-weighted?",decrease,decrease,True,True,32748.6018,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 124 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports?
|
| 128 |
+
Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 129 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 130 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:23:18.615000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Why did this market only drop this last week? I'm a little confused as to why it hadn't been steadily decaying/,flip,decrease,False,True,5504.3376,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 131 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 132 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,flip,False,True,21966.2654,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,decrease,False,True,372.3533,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,hold,False,True,16134.9406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 14 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 15 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 16 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 17 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,flip,True,True,325.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 18 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 19 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry
|
| 20 |
+
I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 21 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 22 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 23 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 24 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates:
|
| 25 |
+
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 26 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 27 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable
|
| 28 |
+
at least
|
| 29 |
+
as long as it i",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 30 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25
|
| 31 |
+
""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True,True,34837.737,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 32 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 33 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,flip,False,True,1163.6765,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 34 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism,
|
| 35 |
+
1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 36 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 37 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns.
|
| 38 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 39 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 40 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,decrease,False,True,8000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 41 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with
|
| 42 |
+
Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False,True,129.0419,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 43 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 44 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False,True,16550.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 45 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 46 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 47 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 48 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 49 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well.
|
| 50 |
+
https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True,True,10225.4021,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 51 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,hold,False,True,21605.0061,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 52 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff?
|
| 53 |
+
Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 54 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 55 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
|
| 56 |
+
10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 57 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 58 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 59 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that.
|
| 60 |
+
But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 61 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time:
|
| 62 |
+
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 65 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID.
|
| 66 |
+
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.899,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 67 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,decrease,False,True,5738.1803,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 68 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 69 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but
|
| 70 |
+
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
|
| 71 |
+
says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 72 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 73 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by
|
| 74 |
+
's interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 75 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 76 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 77 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 78 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 79 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 80 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 81 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 82 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 83 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 84 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 85 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,flip,False,True,613.3469,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 86 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes.
|
| 87 |
+
If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 88 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 89 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 90 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 91 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4
|
| 92 |
+
https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 93 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 94 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 95 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 96 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 97 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 98 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW:
|
| 99 |
+
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity
|
| 100 |
+
""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 101 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 102 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,decrease,False,True,550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 103 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 104 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 105 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek
|
| 106 |
+
incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 107 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 108 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 109 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 110 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 111 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 112 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 113 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 114 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 115 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 116 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 117 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,decrease,True,True,323.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 118 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different
|
| 119 |
+
I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 120 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 121 |
+
D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
|
| 122 |
+
""Commerce Sec",flip,decrease,False,True,1360.0,DECREASE,qwen3:30b
|
| 123 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,flip,False,True,2272.0,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 124 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 125 |
+
IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
| 126 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:30b
|
| 127 |
+
9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.7846115460833042,0.02989484040887999,-0.7547167056744242,DOWN,0.9189606182372511,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,28,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.4970946118494018,0.9956778785729072,0.49858326672350545,UP,0.15032372344501554,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,38,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.43,0.4560711840421291,0.026071184042129103,UP,0.8556079734883872,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,25,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.784611546083304,0.1937566596875888,-0.5908548863957152,DOWN,0.15243870636986753,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,65,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.49709461184940185,0.8742233205886399,0.3771287087392381,UP,0.3402258273660746,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,60,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.7846115460833041,0.4395083592338325,-0.34510318684947155,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.42999999999999994,0.5346257488330876,0.10462574883308762,UP,0.7903737869193082,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,18,DOWN,qwen3:30b
|
| 7 |
+
5,0.7846115460833042,0.25598152018193504,-0.5286300259013692,DOWN,0.5740342099565414,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,19,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 8 |
+
6,0.7846115460833041,0.19419909977295113,-0.590412446310353,DOWN,0.467415458461237,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,10,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 9 |
+
7,0.43,0.36850874692155955,-0.061491253078440444,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 10 |
+
8,0.49709461184940185,0.8954514397018373,0.3983568278524354,UP,0.5745387518596967,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,7,NEUTRAL,qwen3:30b
|
| 11 |
+
9,0.43,0.026402546084215228,-0.4035974539157848,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,3,UP,qwen3:30b
|
| 12 |
+
10,0.43,0.2623002556229529,-0.1676997443770471,DOWN,0.9435679551343875,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,21,DOWN,qwen3:30b
|
| 13 |
+
11,0.7846115460833042,0.1813826650000039,-0.6032288810833003,DOWN,0.492629601354432,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,27,UP,qwen3:30b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/meta/commitment_validity_manifold_meta.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/meta",
|
| 3 |
+
"wrong_bettor_test": {
|
| 4 |
+
"n_hp": 39,
|
| 5 |
+
"n_wrong_bettors": 16,
|
| 6 |
+
"n_directional": 10,
|
| 7 |
+
"skip": "n_dir=10<20"
|
| 8 |
+
},
|
| 9 |
+
"dose_response": {
|
| 10 |
+
"skip": "n_hp_dir=28<40"
|
| 11 |
+
}
|
| 12 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-30B/manifold/meta/did_manifold_meta.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
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| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "manifold/meta",
|
| 3 |
+
"n_pre_directional": 20,
|
| 4 |
+
"n_post_directional": 28,
|
| 5 |
+
"da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4,
|
| 6 |
+
"da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6429,
|
| 7 |
+
"da_post_gt_position": 0.6429,
|
| 8 |
+
"did": 0.2429,
|
| 9 |
+
"paired_sign_test": {
|
| 10 |
+
"skip": "n_pairs=2<10"
|
| 11 |
+
},
|
| 12 |
+
"wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5
|
| 13 |
+
}
|