Datasets:
Add StakeBench v1.1.2: model_outputs/Qwen3-8B (part 2)
Browse files- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task1.csv +0 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h12.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h24.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h48.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h6.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h72.csv +61 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_count.csv +4 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_time.csv +41 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/commitment_validity_polymarket_tech_other.json +12 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv +119 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv +119 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task1.csv +180 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h12.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h24.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h48.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h6.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h72.csv +51 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_count.csv +5 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_time.csv +26 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task01.json +11 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task2.json +11 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task3.json +11 -0
- model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_state.json +978 -0
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task1.csv
ADDED
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model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2.csv
ADDED
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
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| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
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| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
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model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv
ADDED
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,decrease,False
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,decrease,False
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,decrease,False
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,decrease,False
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,hold,True
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,hold,True
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,decrease,False
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,decrease,False
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,decrease,False
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,decrease,False
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,decrease,False
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,decrease,False
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,decrease,False
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,decrease,False
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,decrease,False
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,decrease,False
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,decrease,False
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,decrease,False
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,decrease,False
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,decrease,False
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,decrease,False
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,decrease,False
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,decrease,False
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,decrease,False
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,decrease,False
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,decrease,False
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,decrease,False
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,decrease,False
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,decrease,False
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,decrease,False
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,decrease,False
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,decrease,False
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,decrease,False
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,decrease,False
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,decrease,False
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,decrease,False
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,decrease,False
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,decrease,False
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,decrease,False
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,hold,True
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,hold,True
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,hold,True
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,hold,True
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,hold,True
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,hold,True
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,hold,True
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,hold,True
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,hold,True
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,flip,False
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,hold,True
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,flip,False
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,hold,True
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,hold,True
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,flip,False
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,hold,True
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,hold,True
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,hold,True
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,hold,True
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,flip,False
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,hold,True
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,hold,True
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,flip,False
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,hold,True
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,hold,True
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,hold,True
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,hold,True
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,flip,False
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,hold,True
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h12.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h24.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
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|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h48.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h6.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h72.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
516767,2025-03-29T00:55:17.216175Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mark Carney struggles to answer a question regarding Quebec ban on regions symbols. Press conference immediately over a,hold,flip,False,True,1346.3229,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
510319,2025-03-01T20:11:33.514809Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,You¡¯re reading to much into it. I¡¯m trolling people like you saying yes is cheap.,hold,flip,False,True,453.8498,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T07:21:52.338794Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The market rules contain a significant error, mentioning a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and then somewhat cont",hold,flip,False,True,241.7732,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
555752,2025-07-05T14:59:47.229745Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,My neoliberal gay brother told me that there will be no ceasefire,hold,flip,False,True,515.7028,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T03:23:27.677352Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Means polymarlwt insiders are fonna lose alot of momey voting yea so they are basically trying to twist the ods in some,hold,flip,False,True,218.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:43:29.523652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,My wife is asking me why i laughing,hold,hold,True,True,1045.1301,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T02:00:00.729566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Pretending our betting has some impact on reality is stupid. Using it to act self-righteous is gross.,hold,decrease,False,True,1934.1075,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T19:22:03.199946Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The DMZ bisects Golan heights into Israeli-occupied and Syrian territory. This is all Golan heights by definition,hold,flip,False,True,7990.3492,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
537193,2025-05-20T11:20:48.186584Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"Last opportunity to sell YES. Dont be greedy, take the liq as long as you can before you are at 0",hold,flip,False,True,3686.32,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
507792,2024-11-27T17:46:30.069335Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Sure thing polymarket bought YES this is a scam!,hold,flip,False,True,1521.8694,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
514139,2025-05-23T22:20:28.019292Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Dude, I give a shit about who do you like. I¡¯m here for the money. Your insults disqualify you. Fuck off!",hold,flip,False,True,2638.35,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
507792,2024-12-02T22:53:26.803261Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA whale, if you read this, listen. This market is the easiest profit for you ever. First, you vote all your UMA millio",hold,flip,False,True,508.9712,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
551650,2025-06-18T21:00:07.379872Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°There are no plans for airstrikes or ground operations in Iran at this time,¡± a senior Pentagon official told The Was",hold,flip,False,True,8269.6461,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T05:26:31.071313Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"As much as you¡¯re based , I want to see you loose every cent , and see you believe you can do it ,, and put more money ",hold,flip,False,True,94.7975,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T06:55:24.000181Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Seen 2 black dude walking at night with mask , stole 2 cars in my street , these are the new coming doctors and enginee",hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T06:10:24.520318Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pure supply and demand from people all around the world.,hold,hold,True,True,15522.8938,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T02:50:43.901056Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,This could legit be the easiest 15k of my life. Surely the YES voters put $10 into no as a hedge at these prices.,hold,flip,False,True,244.18,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
555752,2025-07-03T17:22:12.799885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,https://x.com/kann_news/status/1940820528714904032?s=46 Some critical info about the ceasefire agreement details,hold,flip,False,True,34.86,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
506968,2024-12-14T19:13:22.235515Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Assad Syria as it was collapsing, its still an invasion though",hold,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
516767,2025-04-25T04:22:31.028196Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,if CPC wins. they will open files and we will know who are stealing our money and put them to jail.,hold,flip,False,True,506.3,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
560187,2025-09-24T00:49:11.666397Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Is it possible No holder silenced miles?,hold,flip,False,True,17.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,hold,decrease,False,True,997.89,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
510319,2025-01-24T19:47:14.319257Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Slow down mate. You say you have spend one year analyzing this conflict and yet you barely bet 500$. On top of that you ,hold,flip,False,True,31550.543,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
516767,2025-04-24T05:11:02.477662Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Mighy wanna read this. Some people think we win the most seats but not popular vote https://youtu.be/Tiw-gaAlj7s?si=Ux,hold,decrease,False,True,1343.34,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
507276,2025-01-19T20:36:45.142956Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,the same law that bans it would then make it lawful and this all happens in a matter of one day,hold,flip,False,True,35.0823,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
514139,2025-05-30T16:00:01.875832Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You wouldn't have any Muslim invader there! They will all go to Germany,hold,flip,False,True,214.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514139,2025-05-24T22:39:50.905365Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You think we will go down back to 55c?,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.26,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
507276,2025-01-21T15:09:35.191332Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"This is the 4th time, Polymarket cheating",hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
516767,2025-04-26T03:12:45.206246Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,This election is gonna wreck alot of liberal losers,hold,flip,False,True,432.9967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
797327,2025-12-21T13:15:38.730772Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Understand that this is all about the UMA whales voting. Look at the UFO case. Nothing was revealed and they voted yes.,hold,flip,False,True,567.0497,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
507792,2024-11-23T22:27:33.199918Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Exactly. A lot can be change in a month, even a refusal.",hold,decrease,False,True,34.9923,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
253591,2024-10-30T23:36:17.423548Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is rigged it¡¯s free money,hold,flip,False,True,991.45,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
516767,2025-04-27T23:05:44.113397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Fascist? Bro don¡¯t be upset that the tampons are gunna be taken out of the men¡¯s bathroom and you ain¡¯t gunna be able,hold,flip,False,True,1036.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T21:53:08.100205Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"exactly! he is a smart ass, watch and learn from him! so sorry I missed it and didn't act in time, but I think RT will w",hold,flip,False,True,1265.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
555752,2025-07-10T14:56:25.441004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Ben-Gvir renews calls for expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza,hold,flip,False,True,782.1534,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
555752,2025-07-11T10:55:44.016823Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"Well I think about 88% of the public agrees with you. But I¡¯m a gambling man, and big risk means big reward. I wish",hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T18:12:19.440514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no. Syrian Hermon is not Golan .,hold,flip,False,True,52.5019,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
555752,2025-07-04T17:27:58.651804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,"wasnt meant to be funny, perfect time for u to flip to no, sell in profit, spend half of profits on no",hold,flip,False,True,170.06,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
510319,2025-02-19T04:51:30.020854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Will you delete your comment again as you did a couple of days ago when yes reached 40c after you posted it?,hold,flip,False,True,896.0648,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T03:55:16.585121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guys we must not abandon the Golan! The only clarification that we will accept is one that the Golan Heights in the rule,hold,flip,False,True,7849.9459,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
516767,2025-03-21T17:02:14.630219Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Let us have fun you sick liberal,hold,flip,False,True,198.19,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
514139,2025-05-06T09:13:48.941977Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"That's on wikipedia, the reality is they are mostly lefties. Why did Trashkowski take part into pride parade and endorse",hold,flip,False,True,59.7011,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
506968,2024-12-08T20:52:11.333066Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"to declare something an offensive military action or an invasion of another country, that country has to agree that its ",hold,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
506968,2024-12-15T02:12:05.375213Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Guy who believes the only reason this market doesnt resolve to YES immediately is that UMA is controlled by the Talmudic,hold,flip,False,True,1043.6126,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
507792,2024-11-29T00:25:15.687064Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,". From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other ",hold,flip,False,True,0.04,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,hold,flip,False,True,1258.2005,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
253591,2024-10-31T01:28:32.717994Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Never met a Kamala supporter that was not obsessed with a person's race.,hold,decrease,False,True,1882.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
560187,2025-09-10T16:18:26.657497Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Then why not buy some yes to dump at $.90 if you¡¯re so sure? That way you could double dip, anyways one should take pro",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
797327,2025-12-23T23:56:26.219893Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good luck mate, nothing is opportunistic here it's basic math, you keep giving your money to millionainers",hold,decrease,False,True,598.752,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T07:29:15.509607Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,first sciuboi then srobi . a combined share count of 150k was instantly absorbed by the market at 67.5c from these two c,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
516767,2025-04-18T00:03:11.461274Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,PP said India so I could buy more PP shares ;),hold,flip,False,True,419.9,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
506968,2024-12-16T05:16:06.520502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,probably enough to move the headlines.,hold,flip,False,True,2662.3579,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",hold,flip,False,True,13.2439,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
506968,2024-12-09T18:15:30.019773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There's already one dead. You are really a rotten person,hold,flip,False,True,597.55,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,flip,False,True,28855.1091,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
516767,2025-03-28T14:37:12.554764Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"yankee doodle dandies and their russian masters in shambles here, lol",hold,flip,False,True,4223.8816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
507276,2025-01-20T15:19:57.552652Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,i believe on you mmm can you send me some hehehe :),hold,flip,False,True,1.24,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
514139,2025-06-01T15:37:44.104654Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,biggest nawroki holder UPPP has a unrealised loss of 120000 usd,hold,decrease,False,True,34804.3297,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
797327,2025-12-19T20:00:08.051086Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Thanks you that¡¯s the show (takes bow),hold,flip,False,True,548.41,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_count.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.26,0.998,0.738,UP,0.779095467924706,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before August?,42,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.02,0.0005,-0.0195,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,9,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.33999999999999997,0.00155,-0.33845,DOWN,0.12472949551918108,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,71,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_time.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
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|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.325,0.04627272727272727,-0.2787272727272727,DOWN,0.29532834606236746,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,555,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.5,0.593030303030303,0.09303030303030302,UP,0.8523629823145042,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,922,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.8299999999999998,0.2550907738095238,-0.574909226190476,DOWN,0.3708808836858547,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,874,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.42,0.2935416666666667,-0.12645833333333328,DOWN,0.39688277313543685,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,11,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.12,0.8957150735294118,0.7757150735294118,UP,0.4096472059512088,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,182,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
5,0.145,0.10802083333333334,-0.036979166666666646,DOWN,0.9915067096993375,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,18,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
6,0.325,0.2514488636363636,-0.07355113636363642,DOWN,0.13504502092168197,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,325,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
7,0.43499999999999994,0.6038541666666667,0.16885416666666675,UP,0.2517680520330351,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,124,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
8,0.32500000000000023,0.42900568181818177,0.10400568181818154,UP,0.7004213331619574,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,119,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
9,0.525,0.4094583333333333,-0.11554166666666671,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,4,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
10,0.435,0.3,-0.135,DOWN,0.9015379975874548,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,6,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
11,0.525,0.3596666666666667,-0.16533333333333333,DOWN,0.9901486275805529,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
12,0.33999999999999997,0.07213690476190476,-0.2678630952380952,DOWN,0.6074789122956932,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,203,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
13,0.12000000000000002,0.3922048611111111,0.2722048611111111,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,11,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
14,0.5,0.57526875,0.07526875,UP,0.6617845305706389,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,37,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
15,0.5250000000000001,0.26937500000000003,-0.2556250000000001,DOWN,0.5165453333877844,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,23,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
16,0.16000000000000003,0.6300416666666666,0.4700416666666666,UP,0.036296648563698575,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,261,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
17,0.045,0.22291666666666665,0.17791666666666667,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,5,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
18,0.045,0.9458541666666668,0.9008541666666667,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
19,0.33999999999999997,0.19994035785288272,-0.14005964214711725,DOWN,0.9466299923771843,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,57,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
20,0.435,0.35083333333333333,-0.08416666666666667,DOWN,0.40233576289335654,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,139,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
21,0.24000000000000007,0.13416666666666668,-0.10583333333333339,DOWN,0.8728135173579494,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,12,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
22,0.145,0.0015000000000000002,-0.1435,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
23,0.5,0.6945932539682541,0.1945932539682541,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,2,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
24,0.83,0.7224107142857144,-0.10758928571428561,DOWN,0.9992442490781005,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
25,0.435,0.03872916666666667,-0.39627083333333335,DOWN,0.5695599647012101,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,137,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
26,0.145,0.08961458333333334,-0.055385416666666645,DOWN,0.27568946286727236,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,23,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
27,0.5,0.7584259259259257,0.2584259259259257,UP,0.3506569082724306,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,142,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
28,0.5,0.7713293650793651,0.2713293650793651,UP,0.5985985388906876,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,66,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
29,0.5249999999999999,0.06309583333333334,-0.46190416666666656,DOWN,0.9882918016898611,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,41,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
30,0.34,0.013774353876739568,-0.32622564612326044,DOWN,0.06971854714019116,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,44,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
31,0.325,0.3444602272727273,0.019460227272727282,UP,0.3695478840758569,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,48,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
32,0.525,0.08925416666666666,-0.4357458333333334,DOWN,0.6346627828807342,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,140,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
33,0.2599999999999999,0.5517708333333333,0.2917708333333334,UP,0.10273144536646438,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
34,0.25999999999999995,0.695,0.435,UP,0.5044191370685521,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before August?,55,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
35,0.17999999999999997,0.0714375,-0.10856249999999996,DOWN,0.9750479806538677,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,51,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
36,0.15999999999999998,0.35275,0.19275000000000003,UP,0.6044337776748476,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,11,UP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
37,0.33999999999999997,0.14735119047619047,-0.1926488095238095,DOWN,0.7842887790336773,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,73,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
38,0.25999999999999995,0.6530208333333334,0.39302083333333343,UP,0.19154555390343175,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,22,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
39,0.435,0.38343750000000004,-0.051562499999999956,DOWN,0.9957306920548179,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/commitment_validity_polymarket_tech_other.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"data_source": "polymarket/tech_other",
|
| 3 |
+
"wrong_bettor_test": {
|
| 4 |
+
"n_hp": 59,
|
| 5 |
+
"n_wrong_bettors": 37,
|
| 6 |
+
"n_directional": 19,
|
| 7 |
+
"skip": "n_dir=19<20"
|
| 8 |
+
},
|
| 9 |
+
"dose_response": {
|
| 10 |
+
"skip": "n_hp_dir=32<40"
|
| 11 |
+
}
|
| 12 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 62 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 63 |
+
521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 64 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 65 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 66 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 67 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 68 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 69 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 70 |
+
528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 71 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 72 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 73 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 74 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 75 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 76 |
+
539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 77 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 78 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 79 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 80 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 81 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 82 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 83 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 84 |
+
526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 85 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 86 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 87 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 88 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 89 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 90 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 91 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 92 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 93 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 94 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 95 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 96 |
+
515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 97 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 98 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 99 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 100 |
+
518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 101 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 102 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 103 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 104 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 105 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 106 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 107 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 108 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 109 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 110 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 111 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 112 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 113 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 114 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 115 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 116 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 117 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 118 |
+
539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 119 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 62 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 63 |
+
521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 64 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 65 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 66 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 67 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 68 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 69 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 70 |
+
528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 71 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 72 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 73 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 74 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 75 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 76 |
+
539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 77 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 78 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 79 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 80 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 81 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 82 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 83 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 84 |
+
526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 85 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 86 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 87 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 88 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 89 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 90 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 91 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 92 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 93 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 94 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 95 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 96 |
+
515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 97 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 98 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 99 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 100 |
+
518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 101 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 102 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 103 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 104 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 105 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 106 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 107 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 108 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 109 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 110 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 111 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 112 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 113 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 114 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 115 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 116 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 117 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 118 |
+
539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 119 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task1.csv
ADDED
|
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,0xd728c927cc362f4107e39ae1afe9c17b2cad40eb,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,YES,YES,True,True,75.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,0xc28bb09bfd748bd097965302dd6d12a7711c21d0,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,0xc242aab8668108711002ef12a67aca313084f23f,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,0x5a13059572f133f32f00fdf281041015127a1bf0,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",YES,NO,False,True,15.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:11:31.656421Z,0x88645113ee4ad312ae0a1ce8cea315d4ae7a5cc2,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,his last answer was 5 or 6 h ago right,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,0x987a199cc3e8b282d37570af8b34c0ffced8a89a,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",YES,NO,False,True,1162.0645,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,0x4887fc1869c42effb9ebabd76a9f7a05f7ec681d,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
519877,2025-01-26T18:26:40.568309Z,0x42ad77a921b7f74941abe82cabc0d3f296cef6ba,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He can have in a day 200 posts.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,0x33b6688aef3512bcbc84d119fe93af83aebbe331,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,NO,YES,False,True,149.87,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,0xbc68debe46d54a0ff3767cbaa7c8eabc676e31f2,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,0xbc6de8fc73a21e0b175646a9c9229017575fa766,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,0xf3dc4eb27787355ad1779f7db2ba9ea2dc1dc1d4,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,0xd728c927cc362f4107e39ae1afe9c17b2cad40eb,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,0xf5588eafee42187060462f189bd877c118164f41,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T13:06:11.724415Z,0xafd14e94711a2d67f7de6e66e382b82f03ce53a6,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Because it was canceled xd, today it's likely too",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
527180,2025-03-08T19:57:06.484908Z,0xafd14e94711a2d67f7de6e66e382b82f03ce53a6,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,True but everyone I respect in this market like you didn't do well last week,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
519017,2025-01-22T11:01:46.402578Z,0xd30c2da7b167e5abdcfaa2a0faaebcdeb182a9d4,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,where are you and im sooo sorryyyy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",YES,YES,True,True,258.6,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,0xe9f1d87821263592f2a472e8d7ca416d37dba18c,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.9749,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T10:16:43.788911Z,0xbc6de8fc73a21e0b175646a9c9229017575fa766,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Loading some higher brackets for the morning spam,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T14:56:27.038937Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,elon is no longer tweeting because he is dedicating himself to cleaning the house and preparing food for his 12 children,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,0xc242aab8668108711002ef12a67aca313084f23f,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,57.4192,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
538215,2025-04-25T08:41:45.789001Z,0x9e5b66703403258cdeedd94c2b6b2a45722cb612,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"we don't know , we can just wait and see",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,0xfbef4632207baf044fe0ab3cc408255c4af30a8b,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,0x53c4a99882564af31f17bc67a1c8aaf059d2a4f6,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T10:11:16.800586Z,0x1b1acb650e64b9f81599595f5d6db12858d3e54d,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,This guy doesn't seem to be active today.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,0x4320edf18e3ec2f2d1addf4d80bab8c76ba6b6f3,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:04:02.782623Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I make a lot by these positions hahah ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,0x2eceacb4dd86f8696d156502017072be49bdfac9,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T20:09:14.567246Z,0xc360720a53cba1e0ba55241a21a8ccedf2e7f7ef,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,what is the best position atm iyo?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,0xd2639663ef5ed7a246a7cbdefa4820b86ef0c570,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,YES,YES,True,True,26.9492,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,0xf3dc4eb27787355ad1779f7db2ba9ea2dc1dc1d4,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T18:15:01.926738Z,0xd61126fbc2b40a526f264e32a1d2d232844c55a0,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,I assume he is sleeping because he slept for 3h,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,0x5affe88a99209728f275e3f0ab0b4cb511986d1c,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",YES,YES,True,True,41.86,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,0xd5ecaa2844c0abb9bc4de5cdcef44ceb9c042279,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,YES,YES,True,True,4.0583,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,0xe26754b7ac125c20864a3a2df1dc1e24587a6b47,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1567.0043,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,0x7731765b7a1902381761c4509dcf3598d311c810,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",YES,NO,False,True,51.52,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,0xfebc7cf6ee6297539f3a1258b4e8738260c160a8,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,0xf5588eafee42187060462f189bd877c118164f41,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,0x78bdda7ad81fd21c8daaab3834cf2b4c951d2cb1,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),NO,YES,False,True,940.79,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,0x74c2558209c72614068b6a4c11b93cbd93fe7cee,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
519017,2025-01-18T22:23:59.821873Z,0xc198c49f913eb6bbce99e7bbd70bdae023d54ba1,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Unless your early buy was shit !!,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,0x2b7752a9a347a4beb7fd701b79939f8abcb6aa95,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T00:28:46.014914Z,0x16c025d3a9c570a187aaf901f1b74cfaf4119858,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Even I say he will pass 450 in the first 6 days :)),NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
526076,2025-03-02T12:08:13.252922Z,0xaf0edcad753b9b3d24a09625395b9e33f64c188e,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,frfr some might even call it a premium ngl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,0x3e55655a4fdd20349085daf56785c868393531b7,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 52 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,0x306d13e2068673903fe333d430991f1bbeb58f9b,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 53 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T08:26:51.463896Z,0xaff59cf7588a4fb10811a736b1b47db3638bf760,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"and just remember that 9,5 hours ago the pace was 347. Now it's 382. So yes, we just wait and see :)",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 54 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T09:01:24.071156Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I saw your previous reply and you deleted the comment, hilarious. The tracker is made by Polymarket, good luck with your",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 55 |
+
539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,0x8264d95b91b21f9c18b90527102f3f9c316c6091,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",NO,NO,True,True,20.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 56 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T13:58:20.073217Z,0xa760177f00ee6031b017a15b9277464c5fe261c2,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Elon just woke up..he is preparing his finger for tweets..hold..,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 57 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 58 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,0x7d0647d40f88c3c3cb98c2f6cd965e85950eba18,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",YES,NO,False,True,36.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 59 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T10:58:37.876877Z,0x88645113ee4ad312ae0a1ce8cea315d4ae7a5cc2,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,He has to slow down what goes uo must come down,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 60 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,0x695436cde19cea24d1d1e1a452841a873b4f0fb0,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 61 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 62 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T01:29:10.046499Z,0x44157f5f748429474fba6d5c3c9e6e3579a13dee,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Sorry for the lost bro, you bet true to your name, you did good",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 63 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,0x1d10ef132cb78764f20504ac518de82885c170b0,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 64 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:57.972316Z,0x44157f5f748429474fba6d5c3c9e6e3579a13dee,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,he gonna spam rocket tweet so much that his hand melt into the screen,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 65 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,0x3e55655a4fdd20349085daf56785c868393531b7,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 66 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,0x01557fd65982dc5e55722bc558d9534d6a98c873,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,128.4073,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 67 |
+
529581,2025-03-23T18:32:01.899085Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,650+ is just a matter of days. told you guys,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 68 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T18:51:43.594986Z,0xc242aab8668108711002ef12a67aca313084f23f,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,new brackets are stealing the money,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 69 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,0x092c3d32967a9e290ea724e521fa39624f840e48,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 70 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,0xd5ecaa2844c0abb9bc4de5cdcef44ceb9c042279,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,YES,YES,True,True,4.0583,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 71 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,0xbbee30ad1ecfa4d3013df3be265c2afb59c62694,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,YES,NO,False,True,1.03,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 72 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,0x88645113ee4ad312ae0a1ce8cea315d4ae7a5cc2,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,YES,NO,False,True,550.1846,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 73 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T06:31:41.865429Z,0xd3963a73a4fa432489de584d2ab06ecfda8c36dd,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,dw guys its nearly his bed time he finna go sleep soon,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 74 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,0xd0a2cf220625b2b303f31b9210c67786a052e897,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,44.5218,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 75 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,0xe73de49915d7e1967139294611c8949ee2925b2d,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,72.3597,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 76 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,0x8ea969c114a67698d718b98e9544352099ed0f92,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 77 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T03:29:20.492865Z,0x5901e2fbed490fa0b385b5e0d31a08ea8441f8f4,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"How do people propose so quickly, is there a bot that does it?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 78 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T20:09:14.567246Z,0xc360720a53cba1e0ba55241a21a8ccedf2e7f7ef,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,what is the best position atm iyo?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 79 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,0xfbef4632207baf044fe0ab3cc408255c4af30a8b,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,371.168,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 80 |
+
521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 81 |
+
514253,2024-11-30T15:33:46.109624Z,0xc585645f580274e89f77c6c62d477798a988c5fe,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I also not sure I wanna take the risk of getting close to market end as I lost once like 600 because he tweeted one more,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 82 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,0x8e76738453b75b2861ed3e09eb41be06caa0d77f,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,121.25,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 83 |
+
528110,2025-03-16T08:57:02.367499Z,0x44157f5f748429474fba6d5c3c9e6e3579a13dee,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Elon woke up for some reason, hmm",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 84 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 85 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,0x44157f5f748429474fba6d5c3c9e6e3579a13dee,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 86 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,0x1b1acb650e64b9f81599595f5d6db12858d3e54d,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,23.29,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 87 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,0xaff59cf7588a4fb10811a736b1b47db3638bf760,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 88 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,0xd2639663ef5ed7a246a7cbdefa4820b86ef0c570,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,YES,YES,True,True,26.9492,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 89 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",YES,YES,True,True,5.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 90 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T15:13:14.110302Z,0x86bcea3fd89bb1bd523366f794e2c3e642a09806,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,yesterday most of his tweets were in the morning. he only did 7 this morning,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 91 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T09:25:49.270942Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,he will wake up in 4 hours and 10 minutes. do at least 30 tweets in 1h and 30min. a little break then another spam. he w,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 92 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,0x987a199cc3e8b282d37570af8b34c0ffced8a89a,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",YES,NO,False,True,1162.0645,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 93 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,0x01557fd65982dc5e55722bc558d9534d6a98c873,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,128.4073,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 94 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T16:58:41.003137Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,he still has one big spam session for today if you look at the mustracker schedule. It wil jump up,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 95 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,0x669d22a17cabfe2bef0750908ae812228d5516c3,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 96 |
+
526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 97 |
+
529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 98 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,0x74c2558209c72614068b6a4c11b93cbd93fe7cee,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",YES,NO,False,True,0.0067,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 99 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T04:02:00.518451Z,0xaff59cf7588a4fb10811a736b1b47db3638bf760,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Even one is definitely too much.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 100 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 101 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T08:10:46.371867Z,0xfebc7cf6ee6297539f3a1258b4e8738260c160a8,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,when this market opened i saw it's shares is 10000 in every options i think it is worker in polymarket,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 102 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T11:53:26.437838Z,0x7ca60380613f25e920e2d0ed19340b459ae932c2,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"My PNL better without ever having made a bet, imagine you loser",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 103 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T15:48:26.665455Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"285-290+ by the next 6 hours and 315+ by the next 14 hours, maybe even more. i don¡¯t need some stupid ai calculations l",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 104 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,0xb5943ec66b34d46569d59632a64aa7544933b9e7,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,NO,YES,False,True,56.53,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 105 |
+
521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 106 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T19:43:16.151609Z,0xa6b53357cfce1911db9e059275529467d2557f2c,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,I wish I could bet my home to NO,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 107 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T02:54:26.823052Z,0x2b1120e7f505432dab74a7302bfdd7fedb46dc5f,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,put in a good shift this time elon,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 108 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,0xbb966b71103bed4242004fe55c9845966da97795,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 109 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 110 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,0xa6841c4c2ee8de575e2c6dfaf75846b56ee58f44,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,180.609,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 111 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,0xd4872ce4d38af6dc5cec7b077089158aec7fb25d,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11.32,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 112 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T17:29:27.142605Z,0xc360720a53cba1e0ba55241a21a8ccedf2e7f7ef,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"yeah just saw that as well, instantly plus 10 posts this week about cyberattacks, security aso. imo :)",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 113 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:09:41.580831Z,0xfbef4632207baf044fe0ab3cc408255c4af30a8b,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"whoever i donated those 325-350 shares to, consider hedging with buying my 350-375 shares at 9.8, please, THANKS",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 114 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 115 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T17:26:40.115071Z,0xc360720a53cba1e0ba55241a21a8ccedf2e7f7ef,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,cyberattack he is posting about it,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 116 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,0xf3dc4eb27787355ad1779f7db2ba9ea2dc1dc1d4,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 117 |
+
515555,2024-12-18T19:27:01.723996Z,0x505933594074e018088b54a6ffbc306fe6426e7d,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"Is the ""modelation"" guy still around?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 118 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,0xea6c1a4d344c8bb7f82ef58f34d4b1eb606dda3b,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 119 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,0xe26754b7ac125c20864a3a2df1dc1e24587a6b47,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1567.0043,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 120 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",YES,NO,False,True,525.8138,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 121 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T00:38:54.468227Z,0xbf457e6f704b7e3df62d43dbb94f35994d90884e,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,he will post exactly 387 times,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 122 |
+
529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,0x3e55655a4fdd20349085daf56785c868393531b7,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 123 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T10:49:13.472655Z,0xf3dc4eb27787355ad1779f7db2ba9ea2dc1dc1d4,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,Who buys 500+ while 450-500 are at 0%,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 124 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,0x2b7752a9a347a4beb7fd701b79939f8abcb6aa95,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,NO,NO,True,True,54.668,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 125 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,0x84d38c5219d12c064ca78c4061a9fdc04089ddf4,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,YES,YES,True,True,166.6841,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 126 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,0xa293a387dfe983340d75658864665ab9d8c2d374,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 127 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,0x07cf8c361e0ecf3a1642d7690384fa096904c2e6,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 128 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,0xa6841c4c2ee8de575e2c6dfaf75846b56ee58f44,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,174.6664,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 129 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,0xb5943ec66b34d46569d59632a64aa7544933b9e7,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,22.473,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 130 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",YES,NO,False,True,525.8138,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 131 |
+
526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,0x313c0f1fe5d251891a10ce0ad3080ae5cf5638f7,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 132 |
+
523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 133 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,0xcbddd92f3a4485463dacbf4ab81b11a0e3052156,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 134 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T15:10:13.021729Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Get back to English class maybe?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 135 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T19:35:59.936397Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Elon's favorit words must be: Yes, wow, cool and Exactly",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 136 |
+
523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 137 |
+
519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,0xe9f1d87821263592f2a472e8d7ca416d37dba18c,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,15.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 138 |
+
528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,0x75e04e9763f9d026d9db08a71136b65a94441596,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,23.1737,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 139 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,0xd5072656ad682a8b63ffd133534f409855a40368,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 140 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T05:38:18.667478Z,0x6baad175d3462cf870704cdc331dceb1114cf4c3,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Elon go sleep you have to post more in the morning,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 141 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:38:45.720663Z,0x3047aeb066d58664be0f54c0d6b2066dd9e37e7d,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,guys i just casted a spell on elon so if u want to win then bet on the 2 i bet,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 142 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,0xd728c927cc362f4107e39ae1afe9c17b2cad40eb,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 143 |
+
523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 144 |
+
521117,2025-02-05T01:16:21.404056Z,0xaad051678b652800aca9d37dadf932f42349c508,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,Crazy how he posted this many times in just the day,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 145 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T06:47:51.329831Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I knew you were right the entire time by the way, I was just flipping my Y shares so had to hold a stance",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 146 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T05:36:50.666715Z,0x9c6e4be3ca34c3bfd2599827fd1362282574bbb5,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,imagine elon bet his whole nw on 250-274 and he stops at 274 lmao,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 147 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T15:00:04.996945Z,0xfebc7cf6ee6297539f3a1258b4e8738260c160a8,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,he might go to bed again cause he slept just 5 hour its too low,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 148 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,0xc8dc2795352cdedef3a11f1fc9e360d85c5aac4d,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 149 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,0x3f018cf1b07d6b32abf694f7a470528729cc6286,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,24.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 150 |
+
538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,0x11acc648a3252c67eb55542a4d1625047527cb98,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 151 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,0x2b7752a9a347a4beb7fd701b79939f8abcb6aa95,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,NO,NO,True,True,54.668,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 152 |
+
527180,2025-03-08T10:53:25.688823Z,0xc360720a53cba1e0ba55241a21a8ccedf2e7f7ef,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Lol that males absolutely no sense,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 153 |
+
514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,0xb8c3e6b5a49bc09710088e93a31da093eab359dd,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,804.9,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 154 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,0x2b7752a9a347a4beb7fd701b79939f8abcb6aa95,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.038,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 155 |
+
528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,0x44157f5f748429474fba6d5c3c9e6e3579a13dee,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 156 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,0x04ebbcda3bcfa2e7739b24aa94f25513e535021a,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,YES,YES,True,True,113.1269,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 157 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,0x78bdda7ad81fd21c8daaab3834cf2b4c951d2cb1,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,NO,NO,True,True,940.79,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 158 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:27:51.833943Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Told you guys, he came back from the toilet and is back at it. 9 more to go in 3,5h",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 159 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T12:48:28.539421Z,0x7ca60380613f25e920e2d0ed19340b459ae932c2,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"Sure Mr Huszky, you surely know more than me",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 160 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,0x42b12b5749566eeb1d023d169a1006d37b3a1a00,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9.449,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 161 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T09:27:46.670342Z,0x16c025d3a9c570a187aaf901f1b74cfaf4119858,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Crazy Musk can random post 69 post in 69 mins but I except it will be next week not now :))),NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 162 |
+
538215,2025-04-25T14:35:20.455309Z,0x11acc648a3252c67eb55542a4d1625047527cb98,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"yeah (and again, poor, 12k volume talks like a 8 figs trader, sad human being)",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 163 |
+
518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,0x44d30cbef9d9251f3fe466eb659f9816837315cb,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.025,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 164 |
+
526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,0xe26754b7ac125c20864a3a2df1dc1e24587a6b47,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",NO,NO,True,True,1567.0043,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 165 |
+
528110,2025-03-18T19:47:27.364362Z,0xc242aab8668108711002ef12a67aca313084f23f,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"you're right it shoudln't matter much, but the fact is all brackets fell, including the -400 bracket",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 166 |
+
538215,2025-04-23T18:49:33.512549Z,0x8ea969c114a67698d718b98e9544352099ed0f92,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"@Nobody999 thats right, delete your comment and sell your position, pathetic joke",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 167 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T14:16:52.892007Z,0x84d9b63a1731afc6e4aeb1f9e28ff43c2b7e9bf2,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Chamh is trying so hard to convince himself that he¡¯s not gonna lose money. so funny to watch.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 168 |
+
519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,0xf7eedd2bc737406d46d4cbfd51c2e90a6979987d,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 169 |
+
528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,0xd44dc858dc413dc59419e4970af42f7f1424bb61,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 170 |
+
515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,0xed194d33d997bc015565f82066109f50f0c1c98c,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 171 |
+
514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 172 |
+
519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,0xaf0edcad753b9b3d24a09625395b9e33f64c188e,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 173 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T16:28:20.553842Z,0x9f3b6ab15e85bf273ec21053c2ed3d54dc2b627e,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,you seem to be forgeting grok3 relase monday and his Ashley St Clair recent beef,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 174 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:05:17.936669Z,0xea6c1a4d344c8bb7f82ef58f34d4b1eb606dda3b,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,What is up with this man today lil fingers not working,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 175 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,0x5a13059572f133f32f00fdf281041015127a1bf0,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",YES,NO,False,True,15.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 176 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,0xd44dc858dc413dc59419e4970af42f7f1424bb61,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 177 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:8b
|
| 178 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,0x7ffc641b15bc8aaef8d4bf1e3df7af802aa0abd3,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,14.646,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 179 |
+
515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,0xb8c3e6b5a49bc09710088e93a31da093eab359dd,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:8b
|
| 180 |
+
526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,0x16c025d3a9c570a187aaf901f1b74cfaf4119858,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2.csv
ADDED
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,So you are basically gifting money,hold,decrease,False
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,decrease,False
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,decrease,False
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,decrease,False
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,hold,True
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,decrease,False
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,decrease,False
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,hold,True
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,decrease,False
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,decrease,False
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,decrease,False
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,decrease,False
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,decrease,False
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,decrease,False
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,decrease,False
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,hold,True
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,decrease,False
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,decrease,False
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,hold,True
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,decrease,False
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,decrease,False
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,decrease,False
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,decrease,False
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,decrease,False
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,decrease,False
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,he went to pee. will come back,hold,decrease,False
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,decrease,False
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,decrease,False
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,flip,False
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,hold,True
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,hold,True
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,flip,False
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,flip,False
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,hold,True
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,hold,True
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,hold,True
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,hold,True
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,hold,True
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,hold,True
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,hold,True
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,flip,False
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,hold,True
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,flip,False
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,hold,True
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,flip,False
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,hold,True
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,flip,False
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,hold,True
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,flip,False
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,flip,False
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,flip,False
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,flip,False
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,flip,False
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,hold,True
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,flip,False
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h12.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h24.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
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|
|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h48.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
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| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h6.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h72.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
529581,2025-03-25T12:12:42.218416Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Elon currently has the pace of 479, what are you talking about? :D",hold,decrease,False,True,46.62,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
527180,2025-03-09T13:49:25.438957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,So you are basically gifting money,hold,flip,False,True,372.6875,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4673,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,hold,flip,False,True,1388.88,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.4304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:23:00.995177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Mr Musk will sleep now and post the last 6 tweets in the morning,hold,flip,False,True,179.8829,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T00:46:35.604139Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,also -706. Maybe save some of that wit for your trading.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
526076,2025-03-01T03:28:27.804299Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Off to work at Wendy¡¯s for the day guys to make back the money I lose on the market. Cya later,hold,decrease,False,True,232.987,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
514253,2024-12-02T00:59:00.947996Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do u think itll work tmr? Or we chilling with a solid win?,hold,decrease,False,True,203.5304,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T10:15:59.413256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Another way to guide yourself when making a buy decision. Look at the PNL of the top holders both for NO and for YES and,hold,decrease,False,True,648.3883,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",hold,flip,False,True,525.8138,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T23:58:39.138311Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,did i make a good decision buying these brackets 1 day in,hold,decrease,False,True,9.1372,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,hold,flip,False,True,239.99,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,hold,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,hold,flip,False,True,1559.2822,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
539617,2025-04-29T14:09:40.922493Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,most likely between 150-199 elon looks like on a break,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,hold,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T13:51:24.468177Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"No he will, the question is how many times.. 375 for example is possible",hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
527180,2025-03-12T17:30:11.066841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but u can place a 95c order sell in case some1 market buys and buys those shares by accident,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
527180,2025-03-13T07:19:05.920526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Buy 600, the richest man alive has nothing better to do than stay on social media at 3AM in the morning. What a fucking ",hold,flip,False,True,716.1444,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
528110,2025-03-17T23:32:23.663383Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"yes, this goes to 100c with 2 days left, polymarket gonna open new blitz market for 250 to 400",hold,flip,False,True,200.835,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 27 |
+
523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",hold,decrease,False,True,117.72,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 28 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",hold,flip,False,True,63.0542,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 29 |
+
523033,2025-02-13T16:21:19.506301Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Or if you're impatient you can sell to one of the bots that buy at 99.9,hold,decrease,False,True,142.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 30 |
+
523486,2025-02-16T22:13:30.917905Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you do realize I have a backup bracket as well, right?",hold,hold,True,True,1528.51,HOLD,qwen3:8b
|
| 31 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T06:37:01.116314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Seeing whites breathe genuinely pisses me off. Whites are evil. I like watching white gore/flayings video compilations,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 32 |
+
529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 33 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T15:14:35.484682Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Everyone holding ""YES"" for 475-499 should be cashing out now that they can. Bots are going to nuke price in 2 Elon tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,31.5,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 34 |
+
518120,2025-01-14T18:31:15.847774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Highest IQ move: sell 400-449 shares, but keep enough so in case by some miracle, the under 400 doesn't hit, you break e",hold,flip,False,True,121.25,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 35 |
+
526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,flip,False,True,251.5993,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 36 |
+
519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 37 |
+
523033,2025-02-14T11:14:25.384809Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon has important meeting today :) no more tweets,hold,flip,False,True,42.9554,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 38 |
+
519877,2025-01-28T22:44:32.748963Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He¡¯s cooking now, 50+ tweets in next few hours for sure",hold,flip,False,True,870.87,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 39 |
+
526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,hold,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 40 |
+
519017,2025-01-24T16:43:18.569658Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"this MF, posts 40 times at 5 am and then goes and sleeps until noon.",hold,decrease,False,True,12.4092,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 41 |
+
519877,2025-01-25T20:44:19.924544Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"uff, Elon is not tweeting as much as usual",hold,decrease,False,True,52.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 42 |
+
518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,17.42,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 43 |
+
539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,flip,False,True,60.1524,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 44 |
+
519877,2025-01-31T04:10:59.044554Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Real alphas are buying 250-275,hold,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 45 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T12:20:51.485426Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I guess he can't sleep well today ??,hold,decrease,False,True,9.9586,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 46 |
+
518120,2025-01-10T18:52:36.052192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,smooth sailing for the 400s brackets,hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 47 |
+
527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,hold,flip,False,True,12.91,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 48 |
+
529581,2025-03-28T13:42:32.480018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he went to pee. will come back,hold,flip,False,True,31.7816,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 49 |
+
526076,2025-03-04T18:56:28.941131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,363 to 370 in a split second. Wow,hold,flip,False,True,55.4304,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
| 50 |
+
528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0965,DECREASE,qwen3:8b
|
| 51 |
+
514253,2024-12-05T21:44:38.745569Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Guys this is crazy - he forgot twitter exists,hold,flip,False,True,940.79,FLIP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_count.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.07500000000000002,0.0005,-0.07450000000000002,DOWN,0.8861752941414633,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,37,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.13,0.0005,-0.1295,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,33,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.49499999999999983,0.4170000000000001,-0.07799999999999974,DOWN,0.8977533776013454,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,30,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.075,0.9982,0.9232,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,7,UP,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_time.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model
|
| 2 |
+
0,0.17499999999999996,0.13083333333333333,-0.04416666666666663,DOWN,0.9334986365724375,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,18,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 3 |
+
1,0.17499999999999996,0.005145833333333333,-0.16985416666666664,DOWN,0.8723838503824292,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 4 |
+
2,0.13,0.102625,-0.02737500000000001,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,65,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 5 |
+
3,0.5,0.6245833333333334,0.12458333333333338,UP,0.9530338398727072,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,41,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 6 |
+
4,0.115,0.19833333333333333,0.08333333333333333,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,11,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 7 |
+
5,0.105,0.16235416666666666,0.057354166666666664,UP,0.9884690494874555,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 8 |
+
6,0.07499999999999998,0.24291666666666667,0.1679166666666667,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,13,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 9 |
+
7,0.495,0.22175,-0.27325,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 10 |
+
8,0.09000000000000001,0.026937500000000003,-0.06306250000000001,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 11 |
+
9,0.055,0.7789473684210527,0.7239473684210527,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,17,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 12 |
+
10,0.4950000000000001,0.4223333333333333,-0.07266666666666682,DOWN,0.8034131318037147,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,37,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 13 |
+
11,0.49500000000000005,0.3814583333333334,-0.11354166666666665,DOWN,0.26150611076904234,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,56,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 14 |
+
12,0.05500000000000001,0.5639583333333333,0.5089583333333333,UP,0.6820125075080381,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,11,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 15 |
+
13,0.5,0.20713333333333342,-0.2928666666666666,DOWN,0.7520792380855978,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,43,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 16 |
+
14,0.17499999999999996,0.35958333333333337,0.1845833333333334,UP,0.535086064317235,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,35,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 17 |
+
15,0.5,0.618125,0.11812500000000004,UP,0.40277083500195526,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,18,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 18 |
+
16,0.115,0.1275,0.012499999999999997,UP,0.8198362131013304,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 19 |
+
17,0.08,0.08708333333333333,0.00708333333333333,UP,1.0204374299107957,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,25,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 20 |
+
18,0.49500000000000005,0.61875,0.12374999999999997,UP,1.2176574841508907,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,50,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 21 |
+
19,0.5,0.3189583333333333,-0.1810416666666667,DOWN,0.30752555465684467,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,66,DOWN,qwen3:8b
|
| 22 |
+
20,0.5,0.27875,-0.22125,DOWN,0.772159923943574,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 23 |
+
21,0.5,0.1522916666666667,-0.3477083333333333,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 24 |
+
22,0.10500000000000001,0.11320833333333334,0.008208333333333331,UP,0.7942171420751675,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,20,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 25 |
+
23,0.4949999999999999,0.4117058823529412,-0.08329411764705869,DOWN,0.8611964317078833,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,70,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
| 26 |
+
24,0.13,0.7197916666666666,0.5897916666666666,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,26,NEUTRAL,qwen3:8b
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task01.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"model": "qwen3:8b",
|
| 3 |
+
"task": "task01",
|
| 4 |
+
"version": "V18",
|
| 5 |
+
"backend": "transformers",
|
| 6 |
+
"temperature": 0.0,
|
| 7 |
+
"seed": 42,
|
| 8 |
+
"run_full": false,
|
| 9 |
+
"timestamp_utc": "2026-05-02T14:44:05.200933+00:00",
|
| 10 |
+
"out_dir": "<HPC_OUT_DIR>"
|
| 11 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task2.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"model": "qwen3:8b",
|
| 3 |
+
"task": "task2",
|
| 4 |
+
"version": "V18",
|
| 5 |
+
"backend": "transformers",
|
| 6 |
+
"temperature": 0.0,
|
| 7 |
+
"seed": 42,
|
| 8 |
+
"run_full": false,
|
| 9 |
+
"timestamp_utc": "2026-05-02T14:45:49.552258+00:00",
|
| 10 |
+
"out_dir": "<HPC_OUT_DIR>"
|
| 11 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_metadata_task3.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"model": "qwen3:8b",
|
| 3 |
+
"task": "task3",
|
| 4 |
+
"version": "V18",
|
| 5 |
+
"backend": "transformers",
|
| 6 |
+
"temperature": 0.0,
|
| 7 |
+
"seed": 42,
|
| 8 |
+
"run_full": false,
|
| 9 |
+
"timestamp_utc": "2026-05-02T14:48:30.892447+00:00",
|
| 10 |
+
"out_dir": "<HPC_OUT_DIR>"
|
| 11 |
+
}
|
model_outputs/Qwen3-8B/run_state.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,978 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/crypto/task0_1shot": {
|
| 3 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 4 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:45:05"
|
| 5 |
+
},
|
| 6 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/crypto/task0_0shot": {
|
| 7 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 8 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:45:54"
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/crypto/task1": {
|
| 11 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 12 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:47:46"
|
| 13 |
+
},
|
| 14 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/economics/task0_1shot": {
|
| 15 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 16 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:47:59"
|
| 17 |
+
},
|
| 18 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/economics/task0_0shot": {
|
| 19 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 20 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:48:11"
|
| 21 |
+
},
|
| 22 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/economics/task1": {
|
| 23 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 24 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:48:54"
|
| 25 |
+
},
|
| 26 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/other/task0_1shot": {
|
| 27 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 28 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:49:02"
|
| 29 |
+
},
|
| 30 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/other/task0_0shot": {
|
| 31 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 32 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:49:08"
|
| 33 |
+
},
|
| 34 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/other/task1": {
|
| 35 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 36 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:49:30"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"qwen3:8b/polymarket/politics_intl/task0_1shot": {
|
| 39 |
+
"done": true,
|
| 40 |
+
"ts": "2026-05-02 14:49:53"
|
| 41 |
+
},
|
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| 385 |
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| 386 |
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| 387 |
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| 388 |
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|
| 389 |
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| 390 |
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| 391 |
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| 392 |
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|
| 393 |
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| 394 |
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| 395 |
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| 396 |
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| 397 |
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| 398 |
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| 399 |
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| 401 |
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| 403 |
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| 405 |
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| 407 |
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| 409 |
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| 411 |
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| 413 |
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| 414 |
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| 415 |
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| 417 |
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| 419 |
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| 421 |
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| 425 |
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| 445 |
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| 729 |
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| 731 |
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| 733 |
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| 735 |
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| 753 |
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