| # Memory-estimation comparison |
|
|
| This is a configuration-level evaluation within the RLVRAMBench measurement |
| study, separate from the original task-local transfer suite. It asks whether |
| model structure and configured work improve decisions beyond copying an |
| earlier measurement. It does not measure language-model quality or claim a |
| general memory estimator for arbitrary hardware and frameworks. |
|
|
| ## What is predicted? |
|
|
| Each method predicts one label for a complete configuration, combining three |
| eligible seed outcomes: |
|
|
| - `within_margin`: all three runs complete and every sampled per-device peak |
| is at most 38,912 MiB. |
| - `above_margin`: all three complete, but at least one peak exceeds that limit. |
| - `memory_failure`: at least one of the three eligible outcomes is a diagnosed |
| memory failure. |
|
|
| An incomplete set of eligible seeds is unresolved, not a fourth prediction |
| class. Known failure evidence remains visible even when the repeated label |
| cannot be completed. |
|
|
| ## Methods and separation |
|
|
| The historical fitting pool has 90 configurations: 72 boundary settings and |
| 18 four-GPU settings. The three retrospective tests each withhold every |
| configuration from one model family, giving 60 fitting and 30 test |
| configurations. Seed processes are not separate fitting examples. |
| Historical labels were public during method design; this is not blind |
| development on an unseen dataset. |
|
|
| Three fixed references use the same permitted pool: |
|
|
| 1. **Donor copy** selects a historical setting by workload, compound level, |
| GPU count, model family and parameter count, without using target outcomes. |
| 2. **Component regression with startup guard** fits a nonnegative weighted |
| sum of architecture/configuration volume proxies to completed peaks. |
| A separate one-sided resident-actor budget check can override its class. |
| `peak_only_predicted_state` and `startup_guard_changed_state` distinguish |
| the fitted estimate from this check. This is not an implementation of |
| DNNMem, LLMem, or ReaL. |
| 3. **Logistic classification** fits regularized class scores using all source |
| labels. Its scores are not calibrated failure probabilities. |
|
|
| No failure peak is imputed as zero, capacity, or a survivor's completed peak. |
| Regression coefficients do not identify causal physical components. |
|
|
| The separate prospective panel specifies twelve Qwen2.5-7B configurations |
| and 36 fresh invocations in eighteen matched two-/four-GPU pairs. All |
| predictions were sealed before study execution. The 7B model belongs to a |
| known family, and older exploratory 7B workflows existed; those records are |
| excluded. This is not an unseen-family or cross-hardware test. |
|
|
| ## How to read the result |
|
|
| Report useful within-margin approvals together with approvals of diagnosed |
| memory failures and above-margin completions. Exact three-state accuracy is |
| additional information, not a sufficient admission ranking. Evaluate each |
| held-out family separately; do not rank methods by a single pooled score |
| that hides incompatible error patterns. |
|
|
| `retrospective.json` contains every fold, fitted parameter, prediction, |
| confusion matrix and cost. The references do not uniformly improve on one |
| another: the regression recognizes Qwen labels well but approves four |
| memory-failing Granite configurations; the classifier rejects six usable |
| Qwen settings. |
|
|
| ## Files and reconstruction |
|
|
| | File | Purpose | |
| |---|---| |
| | `protocol.json`, `amendment-01.json` | Original protocol and explicit prelaunch corrections | |
| | `model_metadata.json` | Header-derived counts, architecture, and source revisions; no model weights | |
| | `matrix.csv`, `targets.csv` | Frozen execution schedule and prediction settings | |
| | `retrospective.json` | Three leave-family-out comparisons | |
| | `fitted_model.json` | Final fit on all 90 historical configurations | |
| | `predictions.json` | Three frozen predictions per prospective configuration | |
| | `prediction_freeze.json` | Pre-execution timestamp and input/output hashes | |
| | `execution_commits.json`, `execution_history.json` | Exact execution sources and disclosed runtime repairs | |
| | `results/configurations_flat.csv` | One readable row per planned target, including coverage and all predictions | |
| | `results/evaluation.json` | Resolved-subset scores, full-panel coverage and approvals without resolved outcomes | |
| | `results/processes.csv`, `results/pairs.csv` | Every planned seed slot and matched pair, including unresolved evidence | |
| | `results/costs.json` | Separate task and allocation-time accounting, with missing records explicit | |
|
|
| The result files are produced only after raw-evidence reconstruction. |
| The flat table deliberately includes outcomes for inspection; use the frozen |
| target settings and permitted historical measurements when making predictions. |
| An unresolved target is not a correct prediction or a safe approval. |
| Always report the number of unscored approvals beside scores on the resolved |
| subset. Host-memory failures and software failures do not establish |
| GPU-memory outcomes. |
|
|
| The original larger-model panel is complete: 34 of 36 planned invocations |
| launched, 23 provide diagnosed startup memory-admission failures, and none |
| provides a completed training step. Thirteen slots remain unresolved, |
| including seven host-memory failures. Six of twelve repeated configuration |
| labels resolve, all to `memory_failure`. Donor copy incorrectly approves |
| all six. Both fitted references reject them, but so does an always-failure |
| rule: this failure-only subset cannot establish useful-configuration |
| discovery. The regression's three approvals are all unscored four-GPU |
| targets, not successful predictions. |
|
|
| The separately frozen [expanded-host follow-up](../host_capacity/README.md) |
| uses new seed slots and the same predictions. It does not replace these |
| outcomes or merge with their denominators. |
|
|
| From the reproduction code checkout, using the project-local publication |
| environment: |
|
|
| ```bash |
| .venv-reproduce/bin/python -m memory_tuner.verify_estimation \ |
| --root . --refit --output estimator-verification.json |
| ``` |
|
|
| The output file must not already exist. This checks frozen inputs, recomputes |
| predictions and retrospective scores, and compares fresh fits without reading |
| prospective outcomes or overwriting the seal. Numerical tolerance is reported; |
| class labels must agree exactly. The archived backend-discovery warning limits |
| claims about CPU timing/thread control, not the recorded predictions. |
|
|
| The full historical acquisition comprises 308 attempts for 270 eligible |
| processes. Prospective donor copying selects ten distinct configurations, |
| using 34 historical attempts for thirty eligible processes. These are |
| deduplicated evidence costs, not demonstrated GPU-time savings. |
|
|
