Datasets:

lowskillcoding
/

pdata-prediction-markets

---
license: cc-by-4.0
pretty_name: "pdata.world prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi and 6 more venues)"
language:
- en
tags:
- prediction-markets
- polymarket
- kalshi
- manifold
- forecasting
- finance
- tabular
size_categories:
- 100K<n<1M
configs:
- config_name: resolved
  data_files: data/resolved.parquet
  default: true
- config_name: markets-open
  data_files: data/markets-open.parquet
- config_name: events-open
  data_files: data/events-open.parquet
---
# pdata.world prediction markets

Prices, volumes and results for prediction markets on eight venues — Polymarket, Kalshi,
Manifold, Myriad, Limitless, Predict, Opinion and Gemini — in one schema. The data is
collected by [pdata.world](https://pdata.world), which polls each venue every 10 to 60
minutes, and is published under CC BY 4.0.

This snapshot was taken on 2026-10-07. It has three parts:

| Config | Rows | What one row is |
|---|---|---|
| `resolved` (default) | 450,216 events, with their top 1,752,957 markets (at most 10 each) | An event pdata stopped tracking after it closed, with each top market's reported result |
| `markets-open` | 417,132 | A market open for trading: price, 24h move and volume |
| `events-open` | 38,356 | An open event, which groups the markets of one question |

```python
from datasets import load_dataset
resolved = load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "resolved", split="train")
markets = load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "markets-open", split="train")
# or with pandas
import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets/data/markets-open.parquet")
```

## Rows per venue

- **resolved:** kalshi 194,286, gemini 118,368, polymarket 115,407, predict 15,216, limitless 6,438, opinion 344, manifold 148, myriad 9
- **markets-open:** polymarket 268,382, kalshi 112,611, gemini 11,900, manifold 10,848, predict 10,667, limitless 1,435, opinion 1,255, myriad 34
- **events-open:** polymarket 18,596, kalshi 13,751, predict 2,211, manifold 1,672, gemini 1,273, limitless 547, opinion 272, myriad 34

## Read this before using the numbers

- `probability` and prices are on a 0–1 scale.
- **Volume is not comparable across venues.** `volume` and `volume_24hr` are in each venue's
  own unit: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution),
  play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. pdata's
  report [How eight venues count volume](https://pdata.world/research/prediction-market-volume)
  explains each one.
- **In `resolved`, a market's `probability` is the last price pdata saw**, which is usually
  after the market settled. It records the result; it is not a forecast. For prices before
  close, use the API's history endpoint while a market is live (history is deleted 10 days
  after close) — see [How accurate were prediction-market prices a day before the
  result?](https://pdata.world/research/prediction-market-accuracy) for one way to do it.
- **`result` is null where the venue never reports one.** Of the 1,752,957 archived markets,
  1,006,292
  carry a result.
- **A gap in `resolved`:** events that closed between 2026-06-02 and 2026-08-11 are missing,
  because they were pruned before a backup was taken. Events closed in the 10 days before
  the snapshot are in neither file yet.
- pdata groups Kalshi's sibling events for one game under a single group event
  (`is_group`), whose volume is the sum of its children's.

## Fields

### resolved

Every event pdata has stopped tracking live, with its final result: the record pdata keeps when it prunes an event, 10 days after it closes. Events closed more recently are in neither file yet. Kept since 2026-08-31; events pruned before then were rebuilt on 2026-10-07 from backups taken 2026-05-09 to 2026-08-29. Events that closed between 2026-06-02 and 2026-08-11 are missing: they were pruned before the next backup was taken.

| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `source` | Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. |
| `id` | The venue's event id, unique within source. |
| `title` | Event title when pdata pruned it. |
| `categories` | pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. |
| `closed_time` | When the event closed (UTC): the venue's close time, else its end date, else when pdata last saw it. |
| `markets` | The event's top markets by lifetime volume, at most 10: id, question, result (as the venue reported it; null where the venue never says), final probability (0-1) and lifetime volume (venue unit). |
| `url` | The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. |
| `pdata_url` | pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. |
| `pruned_at` | When pdata wrote this record (UTC): when it pruned the event, or 2026-10-07 for an event pruned before 2026-08-31 and rebuilt from backups. |

### markets-open

Every market open for trading on the 8 venues pdata tracks, one per line: price, 24h move and volume. A market is one yes/no question, or one outcome of a multi-outcome event.

| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `source` | Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. |
| `id` | The venue's market id, unique within source. |
| `event_id` | The parent event's id (same source); joins events-open on (source, id). |
| `event_title` | The parent event's title. Read question with it: an outcome of a multi-outcome event can be a bare label. |
| `question` | The market's question as the venue titles it. |
| `label` | Short outcome label where the venue gives one (e.g. a candidate's name). |
| `categories` | pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. |
| `outcomes` | Outcome labels in venue order, usually ["Yes", "No"]. |
| `outcome_prices` | Price of each outcome, 0-1, in outcomes order. |
| `probability` | Implied probability of the first outcome (usually YES), 0-1. |
| `prob_24h_change` | Change in probability over the trailing 24h, on the same 0-1 scale (0.05 = up 5 points). Null when there is no snapshot in that window. |
| `volume` | Lifetime trading volume. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. |
| `volume_24hr` | Trading volume over the last 24 hours. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. |
| `liquidity` | Liquidity as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. |
| `open_interest` | Open interest as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. |
| `start_date` | When the market opened, as the venue reports it (UTC). |
| `end_date` | Scheduled close or expiry, as the venue reports it (UTC). |
| `status` | The venue's own status string, verbatim; null for Polymarket. |
| `countries` | Countries the market concerns (full English names, at most 3), from pdata's AI tagging. [] means none applies; null means not tagged yet. |
| `updated_at` | When pdata last wrote this row (UTC): every fetch from the venue, and again when pdata recomputes a derived field. |
| `url` | The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. |
| `pdata_url` | pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. |

### events-open

Every event open for trading on the 8 venues pdata tracks, one per line. An event groups the markets of one question; markets-open holds its markets.

| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `source` | Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. |
| `id` | The venue's event id, unique within source (pdata builds the id of a group event). |
| `title` | Event title as the venue publishes it. |
| `categories` | pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. |
| `start_date` | When the event opened, as the venue reports it (UTC). |
| `end_date` | Scheduled close or expiry, as the venue reports it (UTC). |
| `volume` | Lifetime trading volume. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. |
| `volume_24hr` | Trading volume over the last 24 hours. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. |
| `open_interest` | Open interest as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. |
| `mutually_exclusive` | True when exactly one of the event's markets can resolve YES; false when they are independent questions; null when the venue does not say. |
| `market_count` | How many markets the event has (for a group event, across its child events). |
| `is_group` | True for an event pdata built to group sibling Kalshi events of one matchup. |
| `parent_event_id` | The pdata group event this event belongs to, or null. |
| `synthetic` | True for an event pdata created to wrap a market the venue lists without one. |
| `updated_at` | When pdata last wrote this row (UTC): every fetch from the venue, and again when pdata recomputes a derived field. |
| `url` | The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. |
| `pdata_url` | pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. |

Timestamps are UTC. The manifest each file was built from is in [`manifests/`](manifests/).

## Updates and versions

A new snapshot is added monthly; each is tagged with its date (this one is `2026-10-07`),
so `load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "resolved", revision="2026-10-07")` always returns the same
rows. For daily data, the same three files are rebuilt every night at
<https://api.pdata.world/bulk/> as gzipped JSON lines.

## Other ways to get the data

- REST API, no key: <https://api.pdata.world/docs>
- MCP server for AI assistants: `https://api.pdata.world/mcp`
- Read-only Postgres with price history:
  `postgresql://pdata_readonly:pdata_public_2026@pg.pdata.world:6433/pdata_new`
  (the password is published on purpose)
- Python client and examples: <https://github.com/noskillcoding/pdata-client>
- Research built on this data: <https://pdata.world/research>

## Licence and citation

CC BY 4.0. Credit "Data: pdata.world" with a link to <https://pdata.world>. This snapshot is
archived on Zenodo with DOI [10.5281/zenodo.23211611](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23211611). The underlying
market data remains subject to each venue's own terms. pdata.world is independent and not
affiliated with any venue.

```bibtex
@misc{pdata_world_prediction_markets_2026_10_07,
  title        = {pdata.world prediction markets: prices, volumes and results from eight venues},
  author       = {{pdata.world}},
  year         = {2026},
  note         = {Snapshot 2026-10-07},
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.23211611},
  howpublished = {\url{https://huggingface.co/datasets/lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets}}
}
```

	---
	license: cc-by-4.0
	pretty_name: "pdata.world prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi and 6 more venues)"
	language:
	- en
	tags:
	- prediction-markets
	- polymarket
	- kalshi
	- manifold
	- forecasting
	- finance
	- tabular
	size_categories:
	- 100K<n<1M
	configs:
	- config_name: resolved
	data_files: data/resolved.parquet
	default: true
	- config_name: markets-open
	data_files: data/markets-open.parquet
	- config_name: events-open
	data_files: data/events-open.parquet
	---

	# pdata.world prediction markets

	Prices, volumes and results for prediction markets on eight venues — Polymarket, Kalshi,
	Manifold, Myriad, Limitless, Predict, Opinion and Gemini — in one schema. The data is
	collected by [pdata.world](https://pdata.world), which polls each venue every 10 to 60
	minutes, and is published under CC BY 4.0.

	This snapshot was taken on 2026-10-07. It has three parts:

	\| Config \| Rows \| What one row is \|
	\|---\|---\|---\|
	\| `resolved` (default) \| 450,216 events, with their top 1,752,957 markets (at most 10 each) \| An event pdata stopped tracking after it closed, with each top market's reported result \|
	\| `markets-open` \| 417,132 \| A market open for trading: price, 24h move and volume \|
	\| `events-open` \| 38,356 \| An open event, which groups the markets of one question \|

	```python
	from datasets import load_dataset

	resolved = load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "resolved", split="train")
	markets = load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "markets-open", split="train")

	# or with pandas
	import pandas as pd
	df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets/data/markets-open.parquet")
	```

	## Rows per venue

	- resolved: kalshi 194,286, gemini 118,368, polymarket 115,407, predict 15,216, limitless 6,438, opinion 344, manifold 148, myriad 9
	- markets-open: polymarket 268,382, kalshi 112,611, gemini 11,900, manifold 10,848, predict 10,667, limitless 1,435, opinion 1,255, myriad 34
	- events-open: polymarket 18,596, kalshi 13,751, predict 2,211, manifold 1,672, gemini 1,273, limitless 547, opinion 272, myriad 34

	## Read this before using the numbers

	- `probability` and prices are on a 0–1 scale.
	- Volume is not comparable across venues. `volume` and `volume_24hr` are in each venue's
	own unit: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution),
	play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. pdata's
	report [How eight venues count volume](https://pdata.world/research/prediction-market-volume)
	explains each one.
	- In `resolved`, a market's `probability` is the last price pdata saw, which is usually
	after the market settled. It records the result; it is not a forecast. For prices before
	close, use the API's history endpoint while a market is live (history is deleted 10 days
	after close) — see [How accurate were prediction-market prices a day before the
	result?](https://pdata.world/research/prediction-market-accuracy) for one way to do it.
	- `result` is null where the venue never reports one. Of the 1,752,957 archived markets,
	1,006,292
	carry a result.
	- A gap in `resolved`: events that closed between 2026-06-02 and 2026-08-11 are missing,
	because they were pruned before a backup was taken. Events closed in the 10 days before
	the snapshot are in neither file yet.
	- pdata groups Kalshi's sibling events for one game under a single group event
	(`is_group`), whose volume is the sum of its children's.

	## Fields

	### resolved

	Every event pdata has stopped tracking live, with its final result: the record pdata keeps when it prunes an event, 10 days after it closes. Events closed more recently are in neither file yet. Kept since 2026-08-31; events pruned before then were rebuilt on 2026-10-07 from backups taken 2026-05-09 to 2026-08-29. Events that closed between 2026-06-02 and 2026-08-11 are missing: they were pruned before the next backup was taken.

	\| Field \| Meaning \|
	\|---\|---\|
	\| `source` \| Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. \|
	\| `id` \| The venue's event id, unique within source. \|
	\| `title` \| Event title when pdata pruned it. \|
	\| `categories` \| pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. \|
	\| `closed_time` \| When the event closed (UTC): the venue's close time, else its end date, else when pdata last saw it. \|
	\| `markets` \| The event's top markets by lifetime volume, at most 10: id, question, result (as the venue reported it; null where the venue never says), final probability (0-1) and lifetime volume (venue unit). \|
	\| `url` \| The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. \|
	\| `pdata_url` \| pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. \|
	\| `pruned_at` \| When pdata wrote this record (UTC): when it pruned the event, or 2026-10-07 for an event pruned before 2026-08-31 and rebuilt from backups. \|

	### markets-open

	Every market open for trading on the 8 venues pdata tracks, one per line: price, 24h move and volume. A market is one yes/no question, or one outcome of a multi-outcome event.

	\| Field \| Meaning \|
	\|---\|---\|
	\| `source` \| Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. \|
	\| `id` \| The venue's market id, unique within source. \|
	\| `event_id` \| The parent event's id (same source); joins events-open on (source, id). \|
	\| `event_title` \| The parent event's title. Read question with it: an outcome of a multi-outcome event can be a bare label. \|
	\| `question` \| The market's question as the venue titles it. \|
	\| `label` \| Short outcome label where the venue gives one (e.g. a candidate's name). \|
	\| `categories` \| pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. \|
	\| `outcomes` \| Outcome labels in venue order, usually ["Yes", "No"]. \|
	\| `outcome_prices` \| Price of each outcome, 0-1, in outcomes order. \|
	\| `probability` \| Implied probability of the first outcome (usually YES), 0-1. \|
	\| `prob_24h_change` \| Change in probability over the trailing 24h, on the same 0-1 scale (0.05 = up 5 points). Null when there is no snapshot in that window. \|
	\| `volume` \| Lifetime trading volume. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. \|
	\| `volume_24hr` \| Trading volume over the last 24 hours. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. \|
	\| `liquidity` \| Liquidity as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. \|
	\| `open_interest` \| Open interest as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. \|
	\| `start_date` \| When the market opened, as the venue reports it (UTC). \|
	\| `end_date` \| Scheduled close or expiry, as the venue reports it (UTC). \|
	\| `status` \| The venue's own status string, verbatim; null for Polymarket. \|
	\| `countries` \| Countries the market concerns (full English names, at most 3), from pdata's AI tagging. [] means none applies; null means not tagged yet. \|
	\| `updated_at` \| When pdata last wrote this row (UTC): every fetch from the venue, and again when pdata recomputes a derived field. \|
	\| `url` \| The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. \|
	\| `pdata_url` \| pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. \|

	### events-open

	Every event open for trading on the 8 venues pdata tracks, one per line. An event groups the markets of one question; markets-open holds its markets.

	\| Field \| Meaning \|
	\|---\|---\|
	\| `source` \| Venue: polymarket, kalshi, manifold, myriad, limitless, predict, opinion or gemini. \|
	\| `id` \| The venue's event id, unique within source (pdata builds the id of a group event). \|
	\| `title` \| Event title as the venue publishes it. \|
	\| `categories` \| pdata topic categories (e.g. Politics, Sports), from rules and AI tagging. \|
	\| `start_date` \| When the event opened, as the venue reports it (UTC). \|
	\| `end_date` \| Scheduled close or expiry, as the venue reports it (UTC). \|
	\| `volume` \| Lifetime trading volume. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. \|
	\| `volume_24hr` \| Trading volume over the last 24 hours. Venue-reported, in the venue's own unit and not converted across venues: shares for Polymarket and contracts for Kalshi (each pays $1 at resolution), play-money mana for Manifold, and each other venue's figure as it reports it. \|
	\| `open_interest` \| Open interest as the venue reports it, in the venue's own unit. \|
	\| `mutually_exclusive` \| True when exactly one of the event's markets can resolve YES; false when they are independent questions; null when the venue does not say. \|
	\| `market_count` \| How many markets the event has (for a group event, across its child events). \|
	\| `is_group` \| True for an event pdata built to group sibling Kalshi events of one matchup. \|
	\| `parent_event_id` \| The pdata group event this event belongs to, or null. \|
	\| `synthetic` \| True for an event pdata created to wrap a market the venue lists without one. \|
	\| `updated_at` \| When pdata last wrote this row (UTC): every fetch from the venue, and again when pdata recomputes a derived field. \|
	\| `url` \| The event or market's own page on the venue's website; null when it cannot be built. \|
	\| `pdata_url` \| pdata's page for the event, https://pdata.world/events/{source}/{id}. \|

	Timestamps are UTC. The manifest each file was built from is in [`manifests/`](manifests/).

	## Updates and versions

	A new snapshot is added monthly; each is tagged with its date (this one is `2026-10-07`),
	so `load_dataset("lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets", "resolved", revision="2026-10-07")` always returns the same
	rows. For daily data, the same three files are rebuilt every night at
	<https://api.pdata.world/bulk/> as gzipped JSON lines.

	## Other ways to get the data

	- REST API, no key: <https://api.pdata.world/docs>
	- MCP server for AI assistants: `https://api.pdata.world/mcp`
	- Read-only Postgres with price history:
	`postgresql://pdata_readonly:pdata_public_2026@pg.pdata.world:6433/pdata_new`
	(the password is published on purpose)
	- Python client and examples: <https://github.com/noskillcoding/pdata-client>
	- Research built on this data: <https://pdata.world/research>

	## Licence and citation

	CC BY 4.0. Credit "Data: pdata.world" with a link to <https://pdata.world>. This snapshot is
	archived on Zenodo with DOI [10.5281/zenodo.23211611](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23211611). The underlying
	market data remains subject to each venue's own terms. pdata.world is independent and not
	affiliated with any venue.

	```bibtex
	@misc{pdata_world_prediction_markets_2026_10_07,
	title = {pdata.world prediction markets: prices, volumes and results from eight venues},
	author = {{pdata.world}},
	year = {2026},
	note = {Snapshot 2026-10-07},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23211611},
	howpublished = {\url{https://huggingface.co/datasets/lowskillcoding/pdata-prediction-markets}}
	}
	```