Download artifacts/exp4/exp3b_baselines.json from od2961/inductive-forecasting-data: direct link, hf CLI and curl.
- Browser
- Download file 3.81 kB
-
https://huggingface.co/datasets/od2961/inductive-forecasting-data/resolve/main/artifacts/exp4/exp3b_baselines.json
- Command line
-
hf download hf://datasets/od2961/inductive-forecasting-data/artifacts/exp4/exp3b_baselines.json
-
curl -L -o exp3b_baselines.json https://huggingface.co/datasets/od2961/inductive-forecasting-data/resolve/main/artifacts/exp4/exp3b_baselines.json
3.81 kB
| { | |
| "fit_on": "train only", | |
| "platt_parameters": { | |
| "intercept": 0.03165908124411149, | |
| "l2": 0.0001, | |
| "market_logit_slope": 1.2074722457582534 | |
| }, | |
| "protocol_version": "exp3b_registered_v1", | |
| "splits": { | |
| "dev": { | |
| "market": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.822265625, | |
| "brier": 0.1261644770507813, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.041379882812499984, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.3951615673908744, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.30462597656250007, | |
| "n": 512, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_market_train_only": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.818359375, | |
| "brier": 0.12721311687427594, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.05328291793905943, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.4000855801260898, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.2950303938774148, | |
| "n": 512, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { | |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, | |
| "ci95_high": 0.0037101134214000027, | |
| "ci95_low": -0.0011426664148143136, | |
| "estimate": 0.0010486398234946378, | |
| "family_cluster_count": 274 | |
| }, | |
| "train_climatology": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.724609375, | |
| "brier": 0.20082292640000832, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.03566928283410409, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.5915829921321202, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341041, | |
| "n": 512, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "test": { | |
| "market": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.84765625, | |
| "brier": 0.11369354125976557, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.05205224609374999, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.36581226603060973, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3226118164062503, | |
| "n": 1024, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_market_train_only": { | |
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| "ece_10_bin": 0.03570535646405733, | |
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| "mean_forecast": 0.31328321743020504, | |
| "n": 1024, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { | |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, | |
| "ci95_high": -0.00010841218184253232, | |
| "ci95_low": -0.0026219398380300752, | |
| "estimate": -0.0013686833582691746, | |
| "family_cluster_count": 466 | |
| }, | |
| "train_climatology": { | |
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| "brier": 0.21041754045530633, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.010278657834099814, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.6117728248164666, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078340998, | |
| "n": 1024, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "train": { | |
| "market": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.8726958525345622, | |
| "brier": 0.09329225417626717, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.023948444700460807, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.30586723902569946, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.32039256912442365, | |
| "n": 1736, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_market_train_only": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.8692396313364056, | |
| "brier": 0.09297458317706854, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.015711901203541524, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.30111382163185013, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341009, | |
| "n": 1736, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 | |
| }, | |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { | |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, | |
| "ci95_high": 0.0007226412414162426, | |
| "ci95_low": -0.001281010305049825, | |
| "estimate": -0.0003176709991990625, | |
| "family_cluster_count": 918 | |
| }, | |
| "train_climatology": { | |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.6889400921658986, | |
| "brier": 0.21430164157233902, | |
| "ece_10_bin": 1.0325074129013956e-14, | |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.6199460927801355, | |
| "mean_forecast": 0.31105990783409104, | |
| "n": 1736, | |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 | |
| } | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "train_yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 | |
| } | |