forecasts @ 6 files, 152 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,262 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,382 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,780 |
 | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,298 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,204 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,340 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,340 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,360 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,360 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -95,6 +95,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -130,6 +132,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -155,6 +158,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -183,6 +187,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2338,3 +2338,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 82.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 48.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2338,3 +2338,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 48.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "runtime": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -26260,3 +26260,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 4, "mean": 71.58, "spread": 2.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.9, "icon_seamless": 71.5, "gem_seamless": 69.3, "ukmo_seamless": 72.0, "jma_seamless": 75.4}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 5, "mean": 81.48, "spread": 1.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.3, "icon_seamless": 79.4, "gem_seamless": 82.0, "ukmo_seamless": 81.3, "jma_seamless": 83.0}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 5, "mean": 71.4, "spread": 2.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.8, "icon_seamless": 69.7, "gem_seamless": 69.7, "ukmo_seamless": 70.0, "jma_seamless": 74.9}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 73.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 57.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 68.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 55.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 90.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 80.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 76.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 69.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 89.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 70.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 68.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 49.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 87.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 71.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 86.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 66.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 87.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 55.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 101.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "value": 77.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 75.77, "spread": 1.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.8, "icon_seamless": 73.9, "gem_seamless": 72.5, "ukmo_seamless": 77.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.8, "jma_seamless": 78.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 67.9, "spread": 1.26, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.7, "icon_seamless": 66.6, "gem_seamless": 67.4, "ukmo_seamless": 69.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.9, "jma_seamless": 69.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.47, "spread": 2.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.2, "icon_seamless": 74.5, "gem_seamless": 79.0, "ukmo_seamless": 76.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.8, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 67.9, "spread": 1.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.2, "icon_seamless": 67.8, "gem_seamless": 67.1, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.7, "jma_seamless": 68.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 79.01, "spread": 2.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 77.5, "gem_seamless": 74.4, "ukmo_seamless": 81.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.9, "jma_seamless": 80.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 67.19, "spread": 1.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.3, "icon_seamless": 66.2, "gem_seamless": 65.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.9, "jma_seamless": 67.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 77.95, "spread": 3.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.4, "icon_seamless": 79.3, "gem_seamless": 75.0, "ukmo_seamless": 76.3, "jma_seamless": 77.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.98, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.9, "icon_seamless": 64.5, "gem_seamless": 67.8, "ukmo_seamless": 66.3, "jma_seamless": 69.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 78.68, "spread": 3.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.0, "icon_seamless": 80.8, "gem_seamless": 72.6, "ukmo_seamless": 79.9, "jma_seamless": 76.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 65.3, "spread": 1.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.3, "icon_seamless": 64.4, "gem_seamless": 64.4, "ukmo_seamless": 66.7, "jma_seamless": 67.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 82.73, "spread": 1.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.0, "icon_seamless": 82.6, "gem_seamless": 82.6, "ukmo_seamless": 84.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.0, "jma_seamless": 79.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 70.46, "spread": 1.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.7, "icon_seamless": 70.9, "gem_seamless": 68.8, "ukmo_seamless": 71.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.1, "jma_seamless": 71.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 82.27, "spread": 2.18, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 82.1, "gem_seamless": 82.9, "ukmo_seamless": 83.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.0, "jma_seamless": 80.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 70.87, "spread": 1.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 71.8, "gem_seamless": 71.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.6, "jma_seamless": 72.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.73, "spread": 2.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 86.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.0, "icon_seamless": 82.2, "gem_seamless": 83.4, "ukmo_seamless": 83.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.0, "jma_seamless": 81.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 71.36, "spread": 1.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.3, "icon_seamless": 71.4, "gem_seamless": 71.5, "ukmo_seamless": 71.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.6, "jma_seamless": 73.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 83.4, "spread": 2.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 82.6, "gem_seamless": 81.8, "ukmo_seamless": 83.3, "jma_seamless": 82.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 71.67, "spread": 2.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.0, "icon_seamless": 72.8, "gem_seamless": 68.3, "ukmo_seamless": 72.9, "jma_seamless": 74.5}}
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+{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 68.32, "spread": 4.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.0, "icon_seamless": 67.0, "gem_seamless": 61.0, "ukmo_seamless": 69.2, "jma_seamless": 70.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 53.98, "spread": 3.22, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.7, "icon_seamless": 57.0, "gem_seamless": 48.5, "ukmo_seamless": 57.4, "jma_seamless": 54.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 70.66, "spread": 1.46, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.9, "icon_seamless": 71.4, "gem_seamless": 70.7, "ukmo_seamless": 69.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.3, "jma_seamless": 71.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 56.14, "spread": 2.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.2, "icon_seamless": 56.3, "gem_seamless": 57.1, "ukmo_seamless": 59.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.4, "jma_seamless": 58.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 70.8, "spread": 1.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.5, "icon_seamless": 71.3, "gem_seamless": 70.5, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.0, "jma_seamless": 73.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 57.7, "spread": 2.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.8, "icon_seamless": 56.7, "gem_seamless": 55.4, "ukmo_seamless": 61.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.6, "jma_seamless": 60.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 72.03, "spread": 1.86, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.5, "icon_seamless": 72.3, "gem_seamless": 71.5, "ukmo_seamless": 69.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.3, "jma_seamless": 72.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 57.59, "spread": 2.46, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.2, "icon_seamless": 56.7, "gem_seamless": 55.1, "ukmo_seamless": 59.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 57.2, "jma_seamless": 60.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 70.3, "spread": 3.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.4, "icon_seamless": 68.4, "gem_seamless": 67.1, "ukmo_seamless": 68.6, "jma_seamless": 73.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.12, "spread": 3.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.4, "icon_seamless": 54.1, "gem_seamless": 54.3, "ukmo_seamless": 61.1, "jma_seamless": 61.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 69.52, "spread": 3.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.9, "icon_seamless": 68.4, "gem_seamless": 63.2, "ukmo_seamless": 71.3, "jma_seamless": 71.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 55.98, "spread": 2.64, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.8, "icon_seamless": 57.3, "gem_seamless": 52.4, "ukmo_seamless": 58.2, "jma_seamless": 59.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 83.89, "spread": 1.59, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.7, "icon_seamless": 84.0, "gem_seamless": 81.0, "ukmo_seamless": 85.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.2, "jma_seamless": 82.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 1, "mean": 71.03, "spread": 1.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.6, "icon_seamless": 72.3, "gem_seamless": 70.2, "ukmo_seamless": 70.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.7, "jma_seamless": 72.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 83.57, "spread": 1.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.9, "icon_seamless": 83.2, "gem_seamless": 83.2, "ukmo_seamless": 84.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.1, "jma_seamless": 81.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 2, "mean": 71.86, "spread": 1.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.4, "icon_seamless": 72.7, "gem_seamless": 72.4, "ukmo_seamless": 70.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.8, "jma_seamless": 73.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.91, "spread": 1.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.4, "icon_seamless": 83.1, "gem_seamless": 82.4, "ukmo_seamless": 83.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.7, "jma_seamless": 83.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 3, "mean": 71.26, "spread": 1.56, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.4, "icon_seamless": 72.7, "gem_seamless": 70.7, "ukmo_seamless": 70.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 73.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 84.03, "spread": 1.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 86.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.0, "icon_seamless": 82.7, "gem_seamless": 81.8, "ukmo_seamless": 84.5, "jma_seamless": 84.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 4, "mean": 71.82, "spread": 1.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.3, "icon_seamless": 72.9, "gem_seamless": 69.4, "ukmo_seamless": 71.3, "jma_seamless": 74.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 82.72, "spread": 1.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.6, "icon_seamless": 83.3, "gem_seamless": 79.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.2, "jma_seamless": 84.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "lead": 5, "mean": 70.92, "spread": 2.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.9, "icon_seamless": 71.2, "gem_seamless": 69.2, "ukmo_seamless": 72.2, "jma_seamless": 73.5}}

replay/lineage.json

@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@
      "avg_edge_priced": 0.15119326551739246
     }
    },
-   "status": "retired",
+   "status": "active",
    "created": "2026-07-23T12:06:45.631551+00:00",
    "note": "held-in $+2.31 vs $-5.07 (+$7.38), held-out $+1.63 vs $+1.66"
   },
@@ -191,9 +191,9 @@
      "fees": 0.19
     }
    },
-   "status": "active",
+   "status": "rolled_back",
    "created": "2026-09-26T14:41:53.186784+00:00",
-   "note": "held-in $-2.07 vs $-5.13 (+$3.06), held-out $+0.67 vs $+0.35"
+   "note": "parent $-1.10 beats active $-2.30 by $1.20 on the fresh window"
   }
  ],
  "meta_cycles": [
@@ -4462,6 +4462,265 @@
    ],
    "promoted": null,
    "reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": "2026-10-06T12:10:46.463286+00:00",
+   "operator": "decision",
+   "rows": 2153,
+   "rollback": "parent $-1.10 beats active $-2.30 by $1.20 on the fresh window",
+   "candidates": [
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.15,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.8,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Live PnL negative and Brier 0.349 worse than coin flip; maximize market anchoring and edge threshold to minimize low-quality trades.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 0
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 0
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=0 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.15,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Isolate stricter edge threshold; fewer trades to avoid negative EV given 17% win rate.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 47,
+      "win_rate": 0.2765957446808511,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.028085106382978734,
+      "total_pnl": -1.3200000000000005,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.1772054958202128,
+      "avg_win": 0.6176923076923078,
+      "avg_loss": -0.27499999999999997,
+      "fees": 0.8300000000000004
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 9,
+      "win_rate": 0.1111111111111111,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.1088888888888889,
+      "total_pnl": -0.9800000000000001,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.19493870800633573,
+      "avg_win": 0.7,
+      "avg_loss": -0.21,
+      "fees": 0.14
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in gain $-0.09 < $0.50 margin"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.12,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.8,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Isolate higher market weight; reduce model influence given poor calibration.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 1,
+      "win_rate": 0.0,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.10999999999999997,
+      "total_pnl": -0.10999999999999997,
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+      "avg_win": 0.0,
+      "avg_loss": -0.10999999999999997,
+      "fees": 0.01
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 0
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=1 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.137,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6635,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "random",
+     "rationale": "archive mutation",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 23,
+      "win_rate": 0.08695652173913043,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.1626086956521739,
+      "total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.16236454941602496,
+      "avg_win": 0.645,
+      "avg_loss": -0.23952380952380953,
+      "fees": 0.37000000000000005
+     },
+     "held_out": {
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+      "win_rate": 0.125,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.07125000000000001,
+      "total_pnl": -0.5700000000000001,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.16264808994432808,
+      "avg_win": 0.7,
+      "avg_loss": -0.1814285714285714,
+      "fees": 0.12
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in gain $-2.51 < $0.50 margin"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.15,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.5749,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "random",
+     "rationale": "archive mutation",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 64,
+      "win_rate": 0.296875,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.005468750000000012,
+      "total_pnl": -0.35000000000000075,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.1808699361370954,
+      "avg_win": 0.6073684210526316,
+      "avg_loss": -0.26422222222222225,
+      "fees": 1.1200000000000006
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 10,
+      "win_rate": 0.1,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.14699999999999996,
+      "total_pnl": -1.4699999999999998,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.20321261894692663,
+      "avg_win": 0.7,
+      "avg_loss": -0.24111111111111116,
+      "fees": 0.16000000000000003
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-out regression $1.60 > $0.25 tolerance"
+    }
+   ],
+   "promoted": null,
+   "reason": ""
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": "2026-10-06T14:28:10.914311+00:00",
+   "operator": "forecast",
+   "rows": 2153,
+   "rollback": "",
+   "candidates": [
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.12,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "<1798 chars>"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Journal losses cluster in narrow buckets (69-70, 67-68) and threshold markets, so the template should force baseline deference and require numeric evidence for any deviation.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 10,
+      "win_rate": 0.3,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.06799999999999998,
+      "total_pnl": -0.6799999999999998,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.13960000000000003,
+      "avg_win": 0.6000000000000001,
+      "avg_loss": -0.35428571428571426,
+      "fees": 0.18999999999999997,
+      "n_pairs": 120,
+      "brier": 0.17659988345216887
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 3,
+      "win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.006666666666666672,
+      "total_pnl": -0.020000000000000018,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.13033333333333338,
+      "avg_win": 0.61,
+      "avg_loss": -0.315,
+      "fees": 0.06,
+      "n_pairs": 60,
+      "brier": 0.1011846671317861
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=10 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.12,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.1,
+      "forecast_prompt": "<1375 chars>"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Champion replay PnL is near zero (-$0.68 held-in) while live Brier is 0.349, so tightening the clamp from 0.15 to 0.10 limits costly deviations the baseline would have avoided.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 6,
+      "win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.011666666666666678,
+      "total_pnl": -0.07000000000000006,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.13999999999999999,
+      "avg_win": 0.63,
+      "avg_loss": -0.3325,
+      "fees": 0.11000000000000001,
+      "n_pairs": 120,
+      "brier": 0.17807945697598881
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 2,
+      "win_rate": 0.0,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.315,
+      "total_pnl": -0.63,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.13100000000000003,
+      "avg_win": 0.0,
+      "avg_loss": -0.315,
+      "fees": 0.04,
+      "n_pairs": 60,
+      "brier": 0.10513
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=6 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.12,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.1704,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "random",
+     "rationale": "archive mutation",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 10,
+      "win_rate": 0.3,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.06799999999999998,
+      "total_pnl": -0.6799999999999998,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.13960000000000003,
+      "avg_win": 0.6000000000000001,
+      "avg_loss": -0.35428571428571426,
+      "fees": 0.18999999999999997,
+      "n_pairs": 120,
+      "brier": 0.17433955382356675
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 3,
+      "win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
+      "pnl_per_contract": -0.006666666666666672,
+      "total_pnl": -0.020000000000000018,
+      "avg_edge_priced": 0.1276666666666667,
+      "avg_win": 0.61,
+      "avg_loss": -0.315,
+      "fees": 0.06,
+      "n_pairs": 60,
+      "brier": 0.10034375000000002
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=10 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    }
+   ],
+   "promoted": null,
+   "reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
   }
  ]
 }

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.json

@@ -0,0 +1,784 @@
+{
+ "rows": 3421,
+ "days": 68,
+ "window": [
+  "2026-07-30",
+  "2026-10-05"
+ ],
+ "stations": [
+  "atl",
+  "aus",
+  "chi",
+  "dal",
+  "den",
+  "lax",
+  "mia",
+  "nyc",
+  "phl",
+  "sat"
+ ],
+ "params": {
+  "min_edge": 0.08,
+  "market_prior_weight": 0.5
+ },
+ "ablation": [
+  {
+   "rule": "naked model vs market",
+   "min_edge": 0.08,
+   "weight": 0.0,
+   "bias": false,
+   "note": "",
+   "n": 1557,
+   "win_rate": 0.37572254335260113,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03689145793192044,
+   "total_pnl": -57.440000000000126,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.2407506528294765,
+   "avg_win": 0.434820512820513,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3207921810699593,
+   "fees": 26.349999999999856,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 57.44000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.8447058823529413,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6570063552857661,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.5097782996778332,
+   "t_stat": -4.203739550438959,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.0538331242158093,
+    -0.018384858044164044
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "rule": "+ learned station bias",
+   "min_edge": 0.08,
+   "weight": 0.0,
+   "bias": true,
+   "note": "",
+   "n": 1465,
+   "win_rate": 0.3535836177474403,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.0405802047781571,
+   "total_pnl": -59.45000000000016,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.21206308501130072,
+   "avg_win": 0.46318532818532854,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3161351636747626,
+   "fees": 24.58999999999987,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 59.92000000000002,
+   "daily_mean": -0.8742647058823533,
+   "daily_sd": 1.7794148930816578,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.49132145025956747,
+   "t_stat": -4.0515404711037,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06025540275049117,
+    -0.020900277008310267
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "rule": "+ market-prior blend (production)",
+   "min_edge": 0.08,
+   "weight": 0.5,
+   "bias": true,
+   "note": "",
+   "n": 678,
+   "win_rate": 0.3687315634218289,
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+    "t_stat": -1.3591059910673255,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05844802342606151,
+     0.011335356600910446
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16384264260174938,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16313339178670205
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl",
+   "digest": "619eb1840fdd3ed4",
+   "rows": 3421,
+   "paired_rows": 3421,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 736,
+    "win_rate": 0.38858695652173914,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.011494565217391306,
+    "total_pnl": -8.46,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14054003406078366,
+    "avg_win": 0.5085314685314685,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34199999999999986,
+    "fees": 13.2699999999998,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.350000000000005,
+    "daily_mean": -0.12441176470588253,
+    "daily_sd": 1.6042986865544775,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.07754900365410095,
+    "t_stat": -0.6394854664545363,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.04876923076923077,
+     0.024209115281501315
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 678,
+    "win_rate": 0.3687315634218289,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.023421828908554553,
+    "total_pnl": -15.879999999999987,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13915825305088475,
+    "avg_win": 0.5227999999999998,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3424766355140191,
+    "fees": 12.219999999999825,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.23352941176470596,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4169114663943014,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.16481581051706928,
+    "t_stat": -1.3591059910673255,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05844802342606151,
+     0.011335356600910446
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.1647668057427477,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16313339178670205
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 707.68,
+   "return": -0.2923,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.3585,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 136,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 542
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 395.49
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.05,
+   "return": -0.9999,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 119,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 542,
+    "cash": 17
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1368.39
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 130,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 542,
+    "cash": 6
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1293.22
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 1030.75,
+   "return": 0.0308,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.203,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 13,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 64,
+    "kill-switch": 601
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 262.47
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-30', '2026-10-05'] · 3421 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1557 | 38% | -0.037 | [-0.054, -0.018] | -57.44 | 57.44 | -4.20 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1465 | 35% | -0.041 | [-0.060, -0.021] | -59.45 | 59.92 | -4.05 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 678 | 37% | -0.023 | [-0.058, +0.011] | -15.88 | 24.66 | -1.36 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 676 | 37% | -0.028 | [-0.062, +0.006] | -18.99 | 24.96 | -1.65 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.041 (2061) | -0.042 (1877) | -0.039 (1652) | -0.041 (1465) | -0.038 (1284) | -0.034 (1127) | -0.028 (916) | -0.023 (626) |
+| 0.25 | -0.041 (1918) | -0.037 (1622) | -0.041 (1368) | -0.033 (1165) | -0.028 (947) | -0.031 (798) | -0.020 (577) | -0.032 (361) |
+| 0.50 | -0.037 (1549) | -0.035 (1212) | -0.023 (920) | -0.023 (678) | -0.022 (501) | -0.038 (379) | -0.032 (239) | -0.126 (75) |
+| 0.75 | -0.028 (828) | -0.027 (446) | -0.031 (248) | -0.140 (97) | -0.169 (36) | -0.060 (18) | +0.076 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 57 | 46% | -0.005 | -0.29 |
+| aus | 123 | 30% | -0.040 | -4.98 |
+| chi | 56 | 45% | +0.044 | +2.45 |
+| dal | 76 | 30% | -0.065 | -4.94 |
+| den | 79 | 39% | -0.074 | -5.82 |
+| lax | 81 | 42% | +0.032 | +2.60 |
+| mia | 62 | 40% | +0.033 | +2.07 |
+| nyc | 70 | 33% | -0.032 | -2.24 |
+| phl | 51 | 33% | -0.079 | -4.01 |
+| sat | 23 | 39% | -0.031 | -0.72 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W31 | 44 | 39% | -0.039 | -1.71 |
+| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 11 | 27% | -0.069 | -0.76 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 604 | 38% | -0.021 | -12.75 |
+| low | 74 | 26% | -0.042 | -3.13 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl",
+  "digest": "28280f971dc7b7e1",
+  "rows": 3421,
+  "paired_rows": 3421,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 679,
+   "win_rate": 0.33431516936671574,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03835051546391756,
+   "total_pnl": -26.040000000000024,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13588324180577674,
+   "avg_win": 0.5245374449339205,
+   "avg_loss": -0.32103982300884976,
+   "fees": 11.969999999999827,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 34.580000000000005,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3829411764705883,
+   "daily_sd": 1.371015593522618,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.27931205033684453,
+   "t_stat": -2.3032661720932937,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.0706484149855908,
+    -0.004022824536376619
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 678,
+   "win_rate": 0.3687315634218289,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.023421828908554553,
+   "total_pnl": -15.879999999999987,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13915825305088475,
+   "avg_win": 0.5227999999999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3424766355140191,
+   "fees": 12.219999999999825,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.23352941176470596,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4169114663943014,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.16481581051706928,
+   "t_stat": -1.3591059910673255,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05844802342606151,
+    0.011335356600910446
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16384264260174938,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16313339178670205
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl",
+  "digest": "619eb1840fdd3ed4",
+  "rows": 3421,
+  "paired_rows": 3421,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 736,
+   "win_rate": 0.38858695652173914,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.011494565217391306,
+   "total_pnl": -8.46,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14054003406078366,
+   "avg_win": 0.5085314685314685,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34199999999999986,
+   "fees": 13.2699999999998,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.350000000000005,
+   "daily_mean": -0.12441176470588253,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6042986865544775,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.07754900365410095,
+   "t_stat": -0.6394854664545363,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.04876923076923077,
+    0.024209115281501315
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 678,
+   "win_rate": 0.3687315634218289,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.023421828908554553,
+   "total_pnl": -15.879999999999987,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13915825305088475,
+   "avg_win": 0.5227999999999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3424766355140191,
+   "fees": 12.219999999999825,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.23352941176470596,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4169114663943014,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.16481581051706928,
+   "t_stat": -1.3591059910673255,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05844802342606151,
+    0.011335356600910446
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.1647668057427477,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16313339178670205
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 707.68,
+  "return": -0.2923,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.3585,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 136,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 542
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 395.49
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.05,
+  "return": -0.9999,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 119,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 542,
+   "cash": 17
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1368.39
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 130,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 542,
+   "cash": 6
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1293.22
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 1030.75,
+  "return": 0.0308,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.203,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 13,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 64,
+   "kill-switch": 601
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 262.47
+ }
+]
+```