forecasts @ 6 files, 78 replay artifacts
Browse files- README.md +11 -6
- data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl +20 -0
- data/baseline-nbm.jsonl +20 -0
- data/gencast-spread.json +1 -1
- data/graphcast-tempseries.json +0 -0
- data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl +160 -0
- data/own-models.jsonl +140 -0
- replay/lineage.json +168 -3
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json +782 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md +224 -0
- replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl +0 -0
README.md
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@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
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| file | what | lines / bytes |
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| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 24,
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| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,
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| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,
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| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,
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| 28 |
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| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,
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| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,
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## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
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@@ -67,6 +67,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
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@@ -84,6 +86,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
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@@ -95,6 +98,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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@@ -109,6 +113,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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## Conventions
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| file | what | lines / bytes |
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| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 24,982 |
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| 25 |
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| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,220 |
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| 26 |
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| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,290 |
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| 27 |
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| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,663 |
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| 28 |
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| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,080 |
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| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,080 |
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## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl`
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## Conventions
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data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl
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@@ -2058,3 +2058,23 @@
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2059 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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| 2060 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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| 2061 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
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| 2063 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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| 2064 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
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| 2066 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
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| 2067 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
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| 2078 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
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| 2079 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 96.0}
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| 2080 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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data/baseline-nbm.jsonl
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2059 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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| 2060 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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| 2061 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
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| 2062 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
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| 2063 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 99.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
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| 2065 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2066 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
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| 2067 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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| 2068 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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| 2069 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
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| 2070 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
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| 2071 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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| 2072 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2073 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
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| 2074 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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| 2075 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
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| 2076 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
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| 2077 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
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| 2078 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
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| 2079 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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| 2080 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "runtime": "2026-09-21T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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data/gencast-spread.json
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{"issued_at": "2026-09-
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{"issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:26:23.822946+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.09, "1": 1.84, "2": 1.68, "3": 1.45, "4": 2.16, "5": 1.97, "6": 2.41}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 1.86, "low": 0.86}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 0.72, "low": 1.31}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.72, "low": 1.11}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 2.21, "low": 2.23}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.18, "low": 2.13}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.52, "low": 1.82}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 0.93, "low": 1.78}}, "aus": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 2.77, "low": 0.86}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.91, "low": 2.1}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.42, "low": 1.68}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.22, "low": 0.94}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.97, "low": 2.47}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.62, "low": 1.97}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 2.6, "low": 1.85}}, "chi": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 1.07, "low": 1.3}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.84, "low": 2.03}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.58, "low": 1.84}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.68, "low": 2.19}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.49, "low": 1.43}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 2.3, "low": 2.96}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 2.39, "low": 3.61}}, "mia": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 0.76, "low": 0.8}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 0.98, "low": 1.53}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 0.94, "low": 1.22}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.38, "low": 1.12}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.13, "low": 0.95}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.07, "low": 1.2}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 1.86, "low": 1.29}}, "lax": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 1.11, "low": 1.24}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.2, "low": 1.62}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.15, "low": 1.38}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.7, "low": 0.98}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.37, "low": 1.39}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.38, "low": 1.39}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 4.96, "low": 0.94}}, "phl": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 0.75, "low": 0.71}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.43, "low": 1.81}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.12, "low": 2.38}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.02, "low": 1.54}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.95, "low": 2.7}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.55, "low": 2.38}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 1.98, "low": 1.17}}, "den": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 4.8, "low": 1.57}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 2.55, "low": 2.65}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 6.33, "low": 1.51}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 3.58, "low": 2.57}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.68, "low": 3.96}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 4.51, "low": 1.44}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 2.53, "low": 2.42}}, "dal": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 2.17, "low": 0.86}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.85, "low": 1.37}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.68, "low": 1.49}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 5.39, "low": 1.51}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 3.37, "low": 2.65}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 5.06, "low": 2.64}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 4.87, "low": 4.95}}, "atl": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 1.97, "low": 0.9}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 3.4, "low": 2.26}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 3.17, "low": 1.48}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.29, "low": 1.2}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.0, "low": 1.49}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.33, "low": 1.03}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 6.09, "low": 3.35}}, "sat": {"2026-09-17": {"high": 2.77, "low": 0.86}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.91, "low": 2.1}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.42, "low": 1.68}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.22, "low": 0.94}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.97, "low": 2.47}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.62, "low": 1.97}, "2026-09-23": {"high": 2.6, "low": 1.85}}}}
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data/graphcast-tempseries.json
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data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl
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| 24820 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.4, "spread": 2.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 65.4, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.1, "jma_seamless": 64.8, "graphcast": 68.3}}
|
| 24821 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 81.44, "spread": 3.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.1, "icon_seamless": 85.9, "gem_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 75.8}}
|
| 24822 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 66.02, "spread": 4.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.5, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 65.0}}
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| 24820 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.4, "spread": 2.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 65.4, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.1, "jma_seamless": 64.8, "graphcast": 68.3}}
|
| 24821 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 81.44, "spread": 3.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.1, "icon_seamless": 85.9, "gem_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 75.8}}
|
| 24822 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 66.02, "spread": 4.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.5, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 65.0}}
|
| 24823 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 64.91, "spread": 2.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.5, "icon_seamless": 63.8, "gem_seamless": 65.9, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 63.4, "jma_seamless": 68.9, "graphcast": 61.7}}
|
| 24824 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 59.34, "spread": 1.56, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.8, "icon_seamless": 58.1, "gem_seamless": 61.4, "ukmo_seamless": 58.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 57.2, "jma_seamless": 61.7, "graphcast": 59.0}}
|
| 24825 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 66.66, "spread": 1.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.3, "icon_seamless": 68.3, "gem_seamless": 68.1, "ukmo_seamless": 67.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.4, "jma_seamless": 66.9, "graphcast": 64.2}}
|
| 24826 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 55.69, "spread": 2.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 54.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.3, "icon_seamless": 54.6, "gem_seamless": 57.2, "ukmo_seamless": 59.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 52.5, "jma_seamless": 56.2, "graphcast": 55.5}}
|
| 24827 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 65.9, "spread": 1.07, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.9, "icon_seamless": 65.7, "gem_seamless": 68.1, "ukmo_seamless": 65.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.0, "jma_seamless": 65.8, "graphcast": 65.2}}
|
| 24828 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 53.56, "spread": 1.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.3, "icon_seamless": 51.8, "gem_seamless": 54.7, "ukmo_seamless": 57.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 50.6, "jma_seamless": 53.7, "graphcast": 53.9}}
|
| 24829 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 72.5, "spread": 2.26, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.1, "icon_seamless": 76.1, "gem_seamless": 69.1, "ukmo_seamless": 72.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.0, "jma_seamless": 73.9, "graphcast": 71.6}}
|
| 24830 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 53.75, "spread": 1.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.0, "icon_seamless": 55.2, "gem_seamless": 52.6, "ukmo_seamless": 56.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 51.8, "jma_seamless": 53.7, "graphcast": 53.5}}
|
| 24831 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 70.8, "spread": 5.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.3, "icon_seamless": 64.5, "gem_seamless": 67.8, "ukmo_seamless": 71.5, "jma_seamless": 76.3, "graphcast": 75.1}}
|
| 24832 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.74, "spread": 1.56, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.2, "icon_seamless": 60.7, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 58.9, "jma_seamless": 57.7, "graphcast": 56.6}}
|
| 24833 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 72.69, "spread": 3.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.4, "icon_seamless": 71.3, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 71.5, "jma_seamless": 72.1, "graphcast": 72.1}}
|
| 24834 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 60.2, "spread": 2.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.4, "icon_seamless": 60.3, "gem_seamless": 59.4, "ukmo_seamless": 65.0, "jma_seamless": 60.1, "graphcast": 57.7}}
|
| 24835 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 72.52, "spread": 5.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.2, "icon_seamless": 69.6, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "jma_seamless": 71.1}}
|
| 24836 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 60.18, "spread": 2.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.6, "icon_seamless": 61.2, "gem_seamless": 56.1, "jma_seamless": 60.5}}
|
| 24837 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 75.0}
|
| 24838 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 66.0}
|
| 24839 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 65.15, "spread": 2.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.5, "icon_seamless": 66.2, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 68.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.8, "jma_seamless": 64.0, "graphcast": 61.5}}
|
| 24840 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 58.04, "spread": 1.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.2, "icon_seamless": 58.5, "gem_seamless": 58.3, "ukmo_seamless": 60.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 57.8, "jma_seamless": 57.9, "graphcast": 57.4}}
|
| 24841 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 66.19, "spread": 1.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.6, "icon_seamless": 67.2, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.6, "jma_seamless": 66.7, "graphcast": 64.5}}
|
| 24842 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 53.48, "spread": 2.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 50.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 52.9, "icon_seamless": 54.0, "gem_seamless": 53.1, "ukmo_seamless": 55.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.8, "jma_seamless": 51.0, "graphcast": 54.5}}
|
| 24843 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 66.95, "spread": 1.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.9, "icon_seamless": 67.9, "gem_seamless": 66.3, "ukmo_seamless": 67.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.7, "jma_seamless": 68.0, "graphcast": 65.8}}
|
| 24844 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 52.23, "spread": 2.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 51.5, "icon_seamless": 52.1, "gem_seamless": 54.5, "ukmo_seamless": 54.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 53.6, "jma_seamless": 48.1, "graphcast": 52.1}}
|
| 24845 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 71.81, "spread": 3.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.8, "icon_seamless": 73.9, "gem_seamless": 64.7, "ukmo_seamless": 70.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.7, "jma_seamless": 74.7, "graphcast": 70.9}}
|
| 24846 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 54.52, "spread": 2.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.0, "icon_seamless": 55.7, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 57.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.0, "jma_seamless": 50.9, "graphcast": 53.1}}
|
| 24847 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 67.29, "spread": 5.57, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.5, "icon_seamless": 64.0, "gem_seamless": 61.0, "ukmo_seamless": 64.2, "jma_seamless": 73.5, "graphcast": 73.8}}
|
| 24848 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.41, "spread": 1.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.2, "icon_seamless": 58.7, "gem_seamless": 54.9, "ukmo_seamless": 56.5, "jma_seamless": 57.5, "graphcast": 57.9}}
|
| 24849 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 68.91, "spread": 4.37, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.5, "icon_seamless": 66.1, "gem_seamless": 69.0, "ukmo_seamless": 67.5, "jma_seamless": 71.7, "graphcast": 66.3}}
|
| 24850 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 59.37, "spread": 1.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.2, "icon_seamless": 61.1, "gem_seamless": 59.8, "ukmo_seamless": 55.7, "jma_seamless": 58.1, "graphcast": 61.0}}
|
| 24851 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 70.42, "spread": 6.18, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.6, "icon_seamless": 65.0, "gem_seamless": 74.6, "jma_seamless": 69.1}}
|
| 24852 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 59.58, "spread": 1.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.2, "icon_seamless": 61.0, "gem_seamless": 58.1, "jma_seamless": 57.8}}
|
| 24853 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 72.0}
|
| 24854 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 61.0}
|
| 24855 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 83.46, "spread": 1.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.7, "icon_seamless": 84.6, "gem_seamless": 85.4, "ukmo_seamless": 84.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.7, "jma_seamless": 84.5, "graphcast": 82.3}}
|
| 24856 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 76.61, "spread": 0.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.2, "icon_seamless": 77.0, "gem_seamless": 74.9, "ukmo_seamless": 77.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.3, "jma_seamless": 76.4, "graphcast": 77.4}}
|
| 24857 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 82.75, "spread": 1.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.6, "icon_seamless": 82.6, "gem_seamless": 82.2, "ukmo_seamless": 85.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.2, "jma_seamless": 80.8, "graphcast": 80.7}}
|
| 24858 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.78, "spread": 1.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.9, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 74.5, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.0, "jma_seamless": 77.3, "graphcast": 77.5}}
|
| 24859 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 87.2, "spread": 1.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.5, "icon_seamless": 86.8, "gem_seamless": 88.9, "ukmo_seamless": 87.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.8, "jma_seamless": 88.4, "graphcast": 84.8}}
|
| 24860 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 76.46, "spread": 1.68, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.7, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 75.2, "ukmo_seamless": 76.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.6, "jma_seamless": 75.2, "graphcast": 77.6}}
|
| 24861 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 87.1, "spread": 1.29, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.2, "icon_seamless": 86.2, "gem_seamless": 86.3, "ukmo_seamless": 87.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 87.1, "jma_seamless": 86.4, "graphcast": 85.9}}
|
| 24862 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.06, "spread": 1.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.3, "icon_seamless": 75.6, "gem_seamless": 74.4, "ukmo_seamless": 76.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.8, "jma_seamless": 75.8, "graphcast": 77.1}}
|
| 24863 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 85.9, "spread": 1.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.0, "icon_seamless": 87.8, "gem_seamless": 85.5, "ukmo_seamless": 86.6, "jma_seamless": 84.6, "graphcast": 84.7}}
|
| 24864 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 75.23, "spread": 2.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.3, "icon_seamless": 73.5, "gem_seamless": 72.2, "ukmo_seamless": 74.7, "jma_seamless": 76.4, "graphcast": 77.0}}
|
| 24865 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 85.2, "spread": 3.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.9, "icon_seamless": 85.6, "gem_seamless": 79.6, "ukmo_seamless": 86.0, "jma_seamless": 88.3, "graphcast": 84.8}}
|
| 24866 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 74.69, "spread": 3.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.7, "icon_seamless": 70.4, "gem_seamless": 76.2, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "jma_seamless": 74.5, "graphcast": 75.5}}
|
| 24867 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 85.32, "spread": 1.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.5, "icon_seamless": 85.1, "gem_seamless": 83.3, "jma_seamless": 88.5}}
|
| 24868 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 73.56, "spread": 5.07, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.0, "icon_seamless": 66.9, "gem_seamless": 74.8, "jma_seamless": 74.5}}
|
| 24869 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 88.0}
|
| 24870 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 76.0}
|
| 24871 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 87.44, "spread": 2.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 88.3, "icon_seamless": 88.7, "gem_seamless": 87.4, "ukmo_seamless": 86.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.7, "jma_seamless": 83.9, "graphcast": 84.3}}
|
| 24872 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 71.4, "spread": 1.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 70.1, "gem_seamless": 71.6, "ukmo_seamless": 74.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.9, "jma_seamless": 71.4, "graphcast": 69.4}}
|
| 24873 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 79.4, "spread": 1.78, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.5, "icon_seamless": 79.5, "gem_seamless": 80.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.7, "jma_seamless": 80.2, "graphcast": 76.7}}
|
| 24874 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 69.03, "spread": 1.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.8, "icon_seamless": 67.7, "gem_seamless": 69.1, "ukmo_seamless": 69.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 71.2, "graphcast": 69.9}}
|
| 24875 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 72.46, "spread": 2.66, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.2, "icon_seamless": 74.8, "gem_seamless": 74.2, "ukmo_seamless": 69.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.4, "jma_seamless": 73.2, "graphcast": 67.6}}
|
| 24876 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.65, "spread": 1.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.1, "icon_seamless": 63.4, "gem_seamless": 65.5, "ukmo_seamless": 64.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.0, "jma_seamless": 68.7, "graphcast": 62.3}}
|
| 24877 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 75.88, "spread": 3.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.9, "icon_seamless": 79.8, "gem_seamless": 73.5, "ukmo_seamless": 74.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.1, "jma_seamless": 72.0, "graphcast": 71.3}}
|
| 24878 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 59.7, "spread": 1.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.4, "icon_seamless": 55.8, "gem_seamless": 59.9, "ukmo_seamless": 60.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.6, "jma_seamless": 62.5, "graphcast": 59.0}}
|
| 24879 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 79.41, "spread": 3.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.7, "icon_seamless": 83.2, "gem_seamless": 77.9, "ukmo_seamless": 76.3, "jma_seamless": 78.8, "graphcast": 75.1}}
|
| 24880 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 60.7, "spread": 3.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.5, "icon_seamless": 56.8, "gem_seamless": 55.7, "ukmo_seamless": 61.3, "jma_seamless": 65.8, "graphcast": 59.9}}
|
| 24881 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.66, "spread": 2.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.2, "icon_seamless": 81.3, "gem_seamless": 79.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.2, "jma_seamless": 81.3, "graphcast": 76.3}}
|
| 24882 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 59.36, "spread": 5.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.3, "icon_seamless": 50.5, "gem_seamless": 54.3, "ukmo_seamless": 64.0, "jma_seamless": 60.7, "graphcast": 61.5}}
|
| 24883 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 83.26, "spread": 1.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.4, "icon_seamless": 84.2, "gem_seamless": 82.2, "jma_seamless": 85.0}}
|
| 24884 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 56.9, "spread": 6.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 52.7, "icon_seamless": 49.4, "gem_seamless": 60.7, "jma_seamless": 56.7}}
|
| 24885 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 90.0}
|
| 24886 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 71.0}
|
| 24887 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 95.4, "spread": 4.11, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.4, "icon_seamless": 98.3, "gem_seamless": 97.2, "ukmo_seamless": 94.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.9, "jma_seamless": 87.7, "graphcast": 91.3}}
|
| 24888 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 76.97, "spread": 2.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.9, "icon_seamless": 74.4, "gem_seamless": 73.6, "ukmo_seamless": 79.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.8, "jma_seamless": 76.3, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
| 24889 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 94.9, "spread": 3.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.6, "icon_seamless": 98.1, "gem_seamless": 96.3, "ukmo_seamless": 93.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 98.8, "jma_seamless": 90.4, "graphcast": 90.7}}
|
| 24890 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.7, "spread": 2.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.6, "icon_seamless": 75.4, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.7, "jma_seamless": 78.0, "graphcast": 76.0}}
|
| 24891 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 94.94, "spread": 4.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.8, "icon_seamless": 97.9, "gem_seamless": 93.5, "ukmo_seamless": 93.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.9, "jma_seamless": 89.0, "graphcast": 87.9}}
|
| 24892 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.5, "spread": 3.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.3, "icon_seamless": 76.9, "gem_seamless": 72.0, "ukmo_seamless": 77.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.1, "jma_seamless": 79.0, "graphcast": 76.2}}
|
| 24893 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 95.04, "spread": 4.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.0, "icon_seamless": 94.5, "gem_seamless": 92.4, "ukmo_seamless": 93.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.8, "jma_seamless": 93.3, "graphcast": 87.4}}
|
| 24894 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.19, "spread": 4.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 70.6, "gem_seamless": 71.6, "ukmo_seamless": 76.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.8, "jma_seamless": 79.1, "graphcast": 73.9}}
|
| 24895 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 94.71, "spread": 3.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.9, "icon_seamless": 96.1, "gem_seamless": 93.6, "ukmo_seamless": 95.1, "jma_seamless": 92.7, "graphcast": 88.5}}
|
| 24896 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 72.66, "spread": 3.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.6, "icon_seamless": 68.0, "gem_seamless": 68.1, "ukmo_seamless": 71.7, "jma_seamless": 78.5, "graphcast": 72.0}}
|
| 24897 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 94.83, "spread": 2.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.2, "icon_seamless": 98.0, "gem_seamless": 95.1, "ukmo_seamless": 94.7, "jma_seamless": 93.6, "graphcast": 89.4}}
|
| 24898 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 75.44, "spread": 2.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.7, "icon_seamless": 74.2, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 75.7, "jma_seamless": 77.7, "graphcast": 75.4}}
|
| 24899 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 95.0, "spread": 2.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.5, "icon_seamless": 97.9, "gem_seamless": 94.8, "jma_seamless": 91.8}}
|
| 24900 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 75.02, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.2, "icon_seamless": 75.3, "gem_seamless": 71.8, "jma_seamless": 77.6}}
|
| 24901 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 101.0}
|
| 24902 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 73.0}
|
| 24903 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 62.01, "spread": 2.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.0, "icon_seamless": 62.7, "gem_seamless": 65.9, "ukmo_seamless": 62.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.2, "jma_seamless": 63.1, "graphcast": 60.5}}
|
| 24904 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 55.49, "spread": 1.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.4, "icon_seamless": 57.5, "gem_seamless": 55.7, "ukmo_seamless": 55.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 55.8, "jma_seamless": 57.8, "graphcast": 53.7}}
|
| 24905 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 64.03, "spread": 1.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.9, "icon_seamless": 64.8, "gem_seamless": 66.1, "ukmo_seamless": 62.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 63.4, "jma_seamless": 65.7, "graphcast": 63.8}}
|
| 24906 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 57.88, "spread": 1.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.9, "icon_seamless": 58.3, "gem_seamless": 60.6, "ukmo_seamless": 56.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.3, "jma_seamless": 59.2, "graphcast": 57.4}}
|
| 24907 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 66.62, "spread": 1.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.1, "icon_seamless": 67.4, "gem_seamless": 67.4, "ukmo_seamless": 66.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.2, "jma_seamless": 67.6, "graphcast": 65.3}}
|
| 24908 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 58.5, "spread": 1.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.7, "icon_seamless": 57.2, "gem_seamless": 58.2, "ukmo_seamless": 59.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.0, "jma_seamless": 58.6, "graphcast": 56.9}}
|
| 24909 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 68.0, "spread": 2.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.6, "icon_seamless": 67.4, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 69.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.9, "jma_seamless": 70.4, "graphcast": 66.6}}
|
| 24910 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 57.73, "spread": 2.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.1, "icon_seamless": 53.1, "gem_seamless": 55.1, "ukmo_seamless": 61.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 55.9, "jma_seamless": 61.0, "graphcast": 58.8}}
|
| 24911 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 68.01, "spread": 1.64, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.0, "icon_seamless": 68.2, "gem_seamless": 67.2, "ukmo_seamless": 68.3, "jma_seamless": 70.9, "graphcast": 68.8}}
|
| 24912 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 54.7, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 51.2, "icon_seamless": 51.4, "gem_seamless": 53.7, "ukmo_seamless": 58.7, "jma_seamless": 57.7, "graphcast": 53.7}}
|
| 24913 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 69.6, "spread": 2.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.3, "icon_seamless": 68.8, "gem_seamless": 70.4, "ukmo_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 73.5, "graphcast": 70.4}}
|
| 24914 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 55.76, "spread": 4.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.2, "icon_seamless": 50.4, "gem_seamless": 57.9, "ukmo_seamless": 60.8, "jma_seamless": 54.3, "graphcast": 51.9}}
|
| 24915 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 73.72, "spread": 3.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.0, "icon_seamless": 71.0, "gem_seamless": 74.9, "jma_seamless": 75.4}}
|
| 24916 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 56.62, "spread": 4.11, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 52.1, "icon_seamless": 55.1, "gem_seamless": 54.6, "jma_seamless": 62.7}}
|
| 24917 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 65.0}
|
| 24918 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 59.0}
|
| 24919 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 94.53, "spread": 3.37, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.0, "icon_seamless": 97.3, "gem_seamless": 95.2, "ukmo_seamless": 95.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 96.9, "jma_seamless": 88.2, "graphcast": 90.4}}
|
| 24920 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 76.17, "spread": 2.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.4, "icon_seamless": 76.9, "gem_seamless": 71.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.0, "jma_seamless": 76.4, "graphcast": 75.3}}
|
| 24921 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 94.09, "spread": 2.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.5, "icon_seamless": 96.4, "gem_seamless": 94.8, "ukmo_seamless": 92.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.5, "jma_seamless": 90.2, "graphcast": 90.6}}
|
| 24922 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.61, "spread": 3.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.2, "icon_seamless": 77.5, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.7, "jma_seamless": 79.1, "graphcast": 75.5}}
|
| 24923 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 93.79, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.6, "icon_seamless": 96.5, "gem_seamless": 93.4, "ukmo_seamless": 93.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.1, "jma_seamless": 89.9, "graphcast": 88.9}}
|
| 24924 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 76.97, "spread": 2.22, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.8, "icon_seamless": 77.2, "gem_seamless": 72.5, "ukmo_seamless": 77.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 77.6, "graphcast": 76.3}}
|
| 24925 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 94.25, "spread": 3.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.2, "icon_seamless": 95.1, "gem_seamless": 92.0, "ukmo_seamless": 94.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 98.6, "jma_seamless": 91.7, "graphcast": 88.9}}
|
| 24926 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.19, "spread": 2.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.5, "icon_seamless": 78.4, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 77.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.0, "jma_seamless": 78.8, "graphcast": 75.4}}
|
| 24927 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 93.63, "spread": 2.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.6, "icon_seamless": 96.0, "gem_seamless": 92.2, "ukmo_seamless": 93.4, "jma_seamless": 91.4, "graphcast": 89.3}}
|
| 24928 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 74.16, "spread": 3.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.8, "icon_seamless": 72.2, "gem_seamless": 68.7, "ukmo_seamless": 73.7, "jma_seamless": 78.0, "graphcast": 73.8}}
|
| 24929 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 93.6, "spread": 2.38, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.6, "icon_seamless": 96.9, "gem_seamless": 93.5, "ukmo_seamless": 92.7, "jma_seamless": 92.4, "graphcast": 89.6}}
|
| 24930 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 76.0, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.4, "icon_seamless": 76.9, "gem_seamless": 69.5, "ukmo_seamless": 76.7, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 75.9}}
|
| 24931 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 93.56, "spread": 1.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.1, "icon_seamless": 95.8, "gem_seamless": 91.5, "jma_seamless": 91.9}}
|
| 24932 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 76.38, "spread": 1.78, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.9, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 73.9, "jma_seamless": 77.6}}
|
| 24933 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 99.0}
|
| 24934 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 78.0}
|
| 24935 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 91.96, "spread": 3.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.6, "icon_seamless": 94.3, "gem_seamless": 90.3, "ukmo_seamless": 94.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 95.1, "jma_seamless": 87.1, "graphcast": 85.8}}
|
| 24936 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 75.6, "spread": 1.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.9, "icon_seamless": 75.3, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 77.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.7, "jma_seamless": 77.7, "graphcast": 73.5}}
|
| 24937 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 93.42, "spread": 3.75, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.6, "icon_seamless": 95.1, "gem_seamless": 93.9, "ukmo_seamless": 96.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 96.8, "jma_seamless": 88.7, "graphcast": 86.5}}
|
| 24938 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 77.01, "spread": 2.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.6, "icon_seamless": 77.1, "gem_seamless": 74.6, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.8, "jma_seamless": 80.0, "graphcast": 73.9}}
|
| 24939 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 92.23, "spread": 4.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.7, "icon_seamless": 93.4, "gem_seamless": 91.3, "ukmo_seamless": 93.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 95.4, "jma_seamless": 92.4, "graphcast": 82.2}}
|
| 24940 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.5, "spread": 4.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.9, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 75.8, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.0, "jma_seamless": 82.5, "graphcast": 71.8}}
|
| 24941 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 90.72, "spread": 4.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.1, "icon_seamless": 90.0, "gem_seamless": 88.3, "ukmo_seamless": 90.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 96.6, "jma_seamless": 92.3, "graphcast": 81.0}}
|
| 24942 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 74.09, "spread": 5.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.1, "icon_seamless": 68.0, "gem_seamless": 66.0, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.0, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 68.0}}
|
| 24943 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 93.03, "spread": 4.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.5, "icon_seamless": 94.2, "gem_seamless": 90.9, "ukmo_seamless": 93.5, "jma_seamless": 95.5, "graphcast": 84.2}}
|
| 24944 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 72.76, "spread": 6.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.5, "icon_seamless": 67.1, "gem_seamless": 62.6, "ukmo_seamless": 76.1, "jma_seamless": 77.0, "graphcast": 69.3}}
|
| 24945 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 95.54, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.3, "icon_seamless": 97.6, "gem_seamless": 94.6, "ukmo_seamless": 94.1, "jma_seamless": 96.5, "graphcast": 90.6}}
|
| 24946 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.11, "spread": 4.96, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.5, "icon_seamless": 71.0, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 79.7, "jma_seamless": 82.3, "graphcast": 73.7}}
|
| 24947 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 94.42, "spread": 3.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.2, "icon_seamless": 98.2, "gem_seamless": 89.8, "jma_seamless": 92.5}}
|
| 24948 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 79.14, "spread": 3.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.5, "icon_seamless": 75.5, "gem_seamless": 78.2, "jma_seamless": 85.6}}
|
| 24949 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 98.0}
|
| 24950 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 75.0}
|
| 24951 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 79.65, "spread": 3.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.2, "icon_seamless": 82.2, "gem_seamless": 82.3, "ukmo_seamless": 80.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.7, "jma_seamless": 77.5, "graphcast": 71.4}}
|
| 24952 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 53.69, "spread": 3.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.9, "icon_seamless": 51.7, "gem_seamless": 49.1, "ukmo_seamless": 52.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 55.9, "jma_seamless": 60.3, "graphcast": 54.2}}
|
| 24953 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.46, "spread": 3.29, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 73.4, "gem_seamless": 76.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.3, "jma_seamless": 77.1, "graphcast": 70.5}}
|
| 24954 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 57.81, "spread": 3.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.4, "icon_seamless": 58.9, "gem_seamless": 53.3, "ukmo_seamless": 57.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.1, "jma_seamless": 63.4, "graphcast": 56.2}}
|
| 24955 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 66.71, "spread": 3.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.0, "icon_seamless": 65.7, "gem_seamless": 65.8, "ukmo_seamless": 68.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 61.8, "graphcast": 63.1}}
|
| 24956 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 58.27, "spread": 1.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.7, "icon_seamless": 58.2, "gem_seamless": 57.2, "ukmo_seamless": 58.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.8, "jma_seamless": 58.8, "graphcast": 56.7}}
|
| 24957 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 73.06, "spread": 4.07, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.3, "icon_seamless": 74.0, "gem_seamless": 76.0, "ukmo_seamless": 76.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.5, "jma_seamless": 69.6, "graphcast": 64.9}}
|
| 24958 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 54.9, "spread": 1.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 52.8, "icon_seamless": 55.5, "gem_seamless": 53.7, "ukmo_seamless": 52.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 55.9, "jma_seamless": 57.9, "graphcast": 54.9}}
|
| 24959 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 79.4, "spread": 1.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.8, "icon_seamless": 80.2, "gem_seamless": 78.5, "ukmo_seamless": 79.0, "jma_seamless": 78.0, "graphcast": 76.6}}
|
| 24960 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 54.87, "spread": 3.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.8, "icon_seamless": 54.2, "gem_seamless": 47.3, "ukmo_seamless": 55.2, "jma_seamless": 59.6, "graphcast": 54.7}}
|
| 24961 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.54, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 82.8, "gem_seamless": 79.9, "ukmo_seamless": 79.3, "jma_seamless": 79.3, "graphcast": 75.5}}
|
| 24962 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 55.36, "spread": 3.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.0, "icon_seamless": 54.8, "gem_seamless": 51.1, "ukmo_seamless": 52.2, "jma_seamless": 59.8, "graphcast": 54.5}}
|
| 24963 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 77.28, "spread": 3.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.9, "icon_seamless": 75.9, "gem_seamless": 78.9, "jma_seamless": 77.5}}
|
| 24964 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 56.16, "spread": 3.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.6, "icon_seamless": 59.2, "gem_seamless": 49.7, "jma_seamless": 56.3}}
|
| 24965 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 75.0}
|
| 24966 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 51.0}
|
| 24967 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 77.0}
|
| 24968 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "value": 68.0}
|
| 24969 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 75.4, "spread": 3.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.9, "icon_seamless": 77.8, "gem_seamless": 76.2, "ukmo_seamless": 71.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.1, "jma_seamless": 76.0, "graphcast": 70.6}}
|
| 24970 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 0, "mean": 62.95, "spread": 4.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.1, "icon_seamless": 61.0, "gem_seamless": 53.2, "ukmo_seamless": 67.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.1, "jma_seamless": 66.5, "graphcast": 66.4}}
|
| 24971 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 80.66, "spread": 6.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.9, "icon_seamless": 86.7, "gem_seamless": 83.0, "ukmo_seamless": 75.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.6, "jma_seamless": 81.3, "graphcast": 72.4}}
|
| 24972 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 1, "mean": 63.14, "spread": 4.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.1, "icon_seamless": 65.1, "gem_seamless": 53.0, "ukmo_seamless": 65.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.8, "jma_seamless": 65.9, "graphcast": 66.3}}
|
| 24973 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 79.64, "spread": 6.29, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.2, "icon_seamless": 86.4, "gem_seamless": 83.1, "ukmo_seamless": 74.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.1, "jma_seamless": 78.7, "graphcast": 71.6}}
|
| 24974 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 2, "mean": 67.11, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.5, "icon_seamless": 67.4, "gem_seamless": 62.4, "ukmo_seamless": 68.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.4, "jma_seamless": 66.6, "graphcast": 67.8}}
|
| 24975 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 79.45, "spread": 6.57, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.2, "icon_seamless": 84.9, "gem_seamless": 79.3, "ukmo_seamless": 71.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.9, "jma_seamless": 80.8, "graphcast": 73.0}}
|
| 24976 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.91, "spread": 2.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.9, "icon_seamless": 66.2, "gem_seamless": 62.9, "ukmo_seamless": 68.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 66.8, "graphcast": 67.5}}
|
| 24977 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.79, "spread": 6.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.8, "icon_seamless": 86.6, "gem_seamless": 80.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.9, "jma_seamless": 83.3, "graphcast": 76.1}}
|
| 24978 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 67.67, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.8, "icon_seamless": 66.2, "gem_seamless": 65.4, "ukmo_seamless": 66.6, "jma_seamless": 66.9, "graphcast": 69.0}}
|
| 24979 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.01, "spread": 4.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.4, "icon_seamless": 85.3, "gem_seamless": 77.7, "ukmo_seamless": 74.1, "jma_seamless": 84.8, "graphcast": 77.2}}
|
| 24980 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.87, "spread": 2.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.8, "icon_seamless": 66.1, "gem_seamless": 66.2, "ukmo_seamless": 66.5, "jma_seamless": 66.7, "graphcast": 71.7}}
|
| 24981 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 80.2, "spread": 4.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.0, "icon_seamless": 77.7, "gem_seamless": 75.8, "jma_seamless": 86.6}}
|
| 24982 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "lead": 6, "mean": 64.96, "spread": 3.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.4, "icon_seamless": 61.0, "gem_seamless": 63.3, "jma_seamless": 65.9}}
|
data/own-models.jsonl
CHANGED
|
@@ -3078,3 +3078,143 @@
|
|
| 3078 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3079 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3080 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
| 3078 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3079 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3080 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3081 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 63.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3082 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3083 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3084 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3085 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3086 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 51.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3087 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3088 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 55.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3089 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3090 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3091 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 60.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3092 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3093 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3094 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 58.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3095 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3096 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3097 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3098 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3099 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 87.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3100 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3101 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3102 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 74.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3103 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3104 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3105 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3106 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3107 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3108 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3109 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 60.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3110 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 55.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3111 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 63.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3112 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3113 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3114 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3115 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3116 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3117 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3118 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3119 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3120 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3121 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3122 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 52.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3123 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3124 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 79.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3125 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 82.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3126 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3127 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 87.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3128 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3129 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3130 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3131 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3132 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3133 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3134 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3135 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 85.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3136 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3137 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3138 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3139 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3140 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3141 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3142 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3143 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3144 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3145 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3146 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3147 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3148 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3149 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3150 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3151 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 62.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3152 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 58.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3153 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3154 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3155 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3156 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3157 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3158 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3159 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3160 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 63.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3161 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3162 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3163 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3164 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3165 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3166 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 49.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3167 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3168 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3169 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3170 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3171 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3172 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3173 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3174 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3175 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3176 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3177 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3178 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3179 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3180 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3181 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3182 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 74.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3183 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 81.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3184 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3185 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 79.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3186 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3187 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 82.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3188 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3189 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3190 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3191 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 87.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3192 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3193 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 81.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3194 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3195 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3196 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3197 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3198 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3199 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3200 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3201 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3202 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3203 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3204 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3205 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 78.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3206 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3207 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3208 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3209 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3210 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3211 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3212 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3213 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3214 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3215 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3216 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3217 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3218 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3219 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
| 3220 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-23T00:35:55.619979+00:00"}
|
replay/lineage.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@
|
|
| 47 |
"avg_edge_priced": 0.15119326551739246
|
| 48 |
}
|
| 49 |
},
|
| 50 |
-
"status": "
|
| 51 |
"created": "2026-07-23T12:06:45.631551+00:00",
|
| 52 |
"note": "held-in $+2.31 vs $-5.07 (+$7.38), held-out $+1.63 vs $+1.66"
|
| 53 |
},
|
|
@@ -113,9 +113,9 @@
|
|
| 113 |
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1632689809734343
|
| 114 |
}
|
| 115 |
},
|
| 116 |
-
"status": "
|
| 117 |
"created": "2026-09-01T16:59:59.269327+00:00",
|
| 118 |
-
"note": "
|
| 119 |
},
|
| 120 |
{
|
| 121 |
"id": 4,
|
|
@@ -3258,6 +3258,171 @@
|
|
| 3258 |
],
|
| 3259 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 3260 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3261 |
}
|
| 3262 |
]
|
| 3263 |
}
|
|
|
|
| 47 |
"avg_edge_priced": 0.15119326551739246
|
| 48 |
}
|
| 49 |
},
|
| 50 |
+
"status": "active",
|
| 51 |
"created": "2026-07-23T12:06:45.631551+00:00",
|
| 52 |
"note": "held-in $+2.31 vs $-5.07 (+$7.38), held-out $+1.63 vs $+1.66"
|
| 53 |
},
|
|
|
|
| 113 |
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1632689809734343
|
| 114 |
}
|
| 115 |
},
|
| 116 |
+
"status": "rolled_back",
|
| 117 |
"created": "2026-09-01T16:59:59.269327+00:00",
|
| 118 |
+
"note": "parent $-3.10 beats active $-3.85 by $0.75 on the fresh window"
|
| 119 |
},
|
| 120 |
{
|
| 121 |
"id": 4,
|
|
|
|
| 3258 |
],
|
| 3259 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 3260 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 3261 |
+
},
|
| 3262 |
+
{
|
| 3263 |
+
"ts": "2026-09-22T11:26:56.896615+00:00",
|
| 3264 |
+
"operator": "decision",
|
| 3265 |
+
"rows": 2256,
|
| 3266 |
+
"rollback": "parent $-3.10 beats active $-3.85 by $0.75 on the fresh window",
|
| 3267 |
+
"candidates": [
|
| 3268 |
+
{
|
| 3269 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3270 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.14,
|
| 3271 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
|
| 3272 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3273 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3274 |
+
},
|
| 3275 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 3276 |
+
"rationale": "19% win rate indicates excessive marginal trading; raising min_edge filters chop and reduces frequency of small losses.",
|
| 3277 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3278 |
+
"n": 62,
|
| 3279 |
+
"win_rate": 0.1935483870967742,
|
| 3280 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.1143548387096774,
|
| 3281 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.089999999999999,
|
| 3282 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.16596957084010835,
|
| 3283 |
+
"avg_win": 0.6266666666666666,
|
| 3284 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.2922,
|
| 3285 |
+
"fees": 1.1400000000000006
|
| 3286 |
+
},
|
| 3287 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3288 |
+
"n": 13,
|
| 3289 |
+
"win_rate": 0.38461538461538464,
|
| 3290 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.056153846153846144,
|
| 3291 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.7299999999999999,
|
| 3292 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.17403291749151817,
|
| 3293 |
+
"avg_win": 0.606,
|
| 3294 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.2875,
|
| 3295 |
+
"fees": 0.23999999999999996
|
| 3296 |
+
},
|
| 3297 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-2.99 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3298 |
+
},
|
| 3299 |
+
{
|
| 3300 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3301 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 3302 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.4,
|
| 3303 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3304 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3305 |
+
},
|
| 3306 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 3307 |
+
"rationale": "Brier 0.395 vs 0.25 baseline shows model retains signal; lowering market weight surfaces model-driven mispricings the market overweights.",
|
| 3308 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3309 |
+
"n": 302,
|
| 3310 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3675496688741722,
|
| 3311 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.02317880794701988,
|
| 3312 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.0000000000000036,
|
| 3313 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1863281031033014,
|
| 3314 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5446846846846846,
|
| 3315 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35319371727748705,
|
| 3316 |
+
"fees": 5.599999999999966
|
| 3317 |
+
},
|
| 3318 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3319 |
+
"n": 50,
|
| 3320 |
+
"win_rate": 0.48,
|
| 3321 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.059999999999999984,
|
| 3322 |
+
"total_pnl": 2.999999999999999,
|
| 3323 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.18930845028721316,
|
| 3324 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5370833333333332,
|
| 3325 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3803846153846153,
|
| 3326 |
+
"fees": 0.9300000000000005
|
| 3327 |
+
},
|
| 3328 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-2.90 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3329 |
+
},
|
| 3330 |
+
{
|
| 3331 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3332 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.14,
|
| 3333 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.4,
|
| 3334 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3335 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3336 |
+
},
|
| 3337 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 3338 |
+
"rationale": "Joint shift targets higher-conviction entries to capture the $242 avg win while avoiding the tail-risk cluster seen in recent settlements.",
|
| 3339 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3340 |
+
"n": 240,
|
| 3341 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
|
| 3342 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.04583333333333335,
|
| 3343 |
+
"total_pnl": -11.000000000000004,
|
| 3344 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.20127748060314724,
|
| 3345 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5700000000000001,
|
| 3346 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3537500000000001,
|
| 3347 |
+
"fees": 4.47999999999999
|
| 3348 |
+
},
|
| 3349 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3350 |
+
"n": 38,
|
| 3351 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4473684210526316,
|
| 3352 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.0631578947368421,
|
| 3353 |
+
"total_pnl": 2.3999999999999995,
|
| 3354 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.20859523955265,
|
| 3355 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5670588235294117,
|
| 3356 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3447619047619048,
|
| 3357 |
+
"fees": 0.6900000000000003
|
| 3358 |
+
},
|
| 3359 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-6.90 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3360 |
+
},
|
| 3361 |
+
{
|
| 3362 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3363 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.1437,
|
| 3364 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.5797,
|
| 3365 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3366 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3367 |
+
},
|
| 3368 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 3369 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 3370 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3371 |
+
"n": 71,
|
| 3372 |
+
"win_rate": 0.19718309859154928,
|
| 3373 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.11098591549295778,
|
| 3374 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.880000000000003,
|
| 3375 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.17206466173240328,
|
| 3376 |
+
"avg_win": 0.6214285714285713,
|
| 3377 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.2908771929824562,
|
| 3378 |
+
"fees": 1.3000000000000007
|
| 3379 |
+
},
|
| 3380 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3381 |
+
"n": 14,
|
| 3382 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35714285714285715,
|
| 3383 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.045714285714285714,
|
| 3384 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.64,
|
| 3385 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.18155699140710682,
|
| 3386 |
+
"avg_win": 0.606,
|
| 3387 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.26555555555555554,
|
| 3388 |
+
"fees": 0.24999999999999997
|
| 3389 |
+
},
|
| 3390 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-3.78 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3391 |
+
},
|
| 3392 |
+
{
|
| 3393 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3394 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.1321,
|
| 3395 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.7188,
|
| 3396 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3397 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3398 |
+
},
|
| 3399 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 3400 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 3401 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3402 |
+
"n": 5,
|
| 3403 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 3404 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.15599999999999997,
|
| 3405 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.7799999999999999,
|
| 3406 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.17364305036242864,
|
| 3407 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 3408 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.15599999999999997,
|
| 3409 |
+
"fees": 0.060000000000000005
|
| 3410 |
+
},
|
| 3411 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3412 |
+
"n": 2,
|
| 3413 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 3414 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.09999999999999998,
|
| 3415 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.19999999999999996,
|
| 3416 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.15359440816206887,
|
| 3417 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 3418 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.09999999999999998,
|
| 3419 |
+
"fees": 0.02
|
| 3420 |
+
},
|
| 3421 |
+
"verdict": "held-in n=5 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
|
| 3422 |
+
}
|
| 3423 |
+
],
|
| 3424 |
+
"promoted": null,
|
| 3425 |
+
"reason": ""
|
| 3426 |
}
|
| 3427 |
]
|
| 3428 |
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,782 @@
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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| 3 |
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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| 6 |
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| 7 |
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],
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| 8 |
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| 9 |
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|
| 10 |
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| 11 |
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|
| 12 |
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|
| 13 |
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|
| 14 |
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|
| 15 |
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|
| 16 |
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"nyc",
|
| 17 |
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"phl",
|
| 18 |
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| 19 |
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],
|
| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 |
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|
| 26 |
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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| 31 |
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| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 34 |
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| 35 |
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 51 |
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| 52 |
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| 734 |
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| 766 |
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| 781 |
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| 782 |
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}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.md
ADDED
|
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| 1 |
+
# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-16', '2026-09-21'] · 3520 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
## E1 ablation
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
|
| 6 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 7 |
+
| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1560 | 38% | -0.036 | [-0.054, -0.017] | -56.65 | 61.20 | -3.83 |
|
| 8 |
+
| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1483 | 37% | -0.038 | [-0.056, -0.018] | -56.54 | 60.02 | -3.80 |
|
| 9 |
+
| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 667 | 38% | -0.027 | [-0.063, +0.009] | -17.99 | 25.28 | -1.46 |
|
| 10 |
+
| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 664 | 39% | -0.027 | [-0.062, +0.010] | -17.83 | 25.49 | -1.46 |
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
|
| 15 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 16 |
+
| 0.00 | -0.038 (2135) | -0.040 (1927) | -0.039 (1699) | -0.038 (1483) | -0.038 (1303) | -0.034 (1139) | -0.029 (907) | -0.024 (608) |
|
| 17 |
+
| 0.25 | -0.039 (1968) | -0.036 (1665) | -0.039 (1391) | -0.034 (1171) | -0.032 (949) | -0.033 (787) | -0.020 (564) | -0.046 (338) |
|
| 18 |
+
| 0.50 | -0.035 (1585) | -0.036 (1226) | -0.026 (914) | -0.027 (667) | -0.029 (483) | -0.048 (355) | -0.046 (225) | -0.119 (71) |
|
| 19 |
+
| 0.75 | -0.031 (820) | -0.038 (424) | -0.048 (234) | -0.143 (93) | -0.138 (36) | -0.119 (15) | +0.035 (6) | — |
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
## E6 by station
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 24 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 25 |
+
| atl | 57 | 39% | -0.087 | -4.95 |
|
| 26 |
+
| aus | 117 | 29% | -0.074 | -8.60 |
|
| 27 |
+
| chi | 56 | 54% | +0.131 | +7.35 |
|
| 28 |
+
| dal | 73 | 36% | -0.025 | -1.82 |
|
| 29 |
+
| den | 79 | 39% | -0.090 | -7.14 |
|
| 30 |
+
| lax | 77 | 38% | -0.019 | -1.47 |
|
| 31 |
+
| mia | 59 | 41% | +0.043 | +2.51 |
|
| 32 |
+
| nyc | 67 | 34% | -0.020 | -1.36 |
|
| 33 |
+
| phl | 53 | 34% | -0.073 | -3.86 |
|
| 34 |
+
| sat | 29 | 48% | +0.047 | +1.35 |
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## E6 by week
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 39 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 40 |
+
| 2026-W29 | 33 | 30% | -0.097 | -3.21 |
|
| 41 |
+
| 2026-W30 | 57 | 47% | +0.074 | +4.24 |
|
| 42 |
+
| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
|
| 43 |
+
| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
|
| 44 |
+
| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
|
| 45 |
+
| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
|
| 46 |
+
| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
|
| 47 |
+
| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
|
| 48 |
+
| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
|
| 49 |
+
| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
|
| 50 |
+
| 2026-W39 | 6 | 67% | +0.285 | +1.71 |
|
| 51 |
+
|
| 52 |
+
## E6 by kind
|
| 53 |
+
|
| 54 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 55 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 56 |
+
| high | 589 | 38% | -0.030 | -17.40 |
|
| 57 |
+
| low | 78 | 32% | -0.008 | -0.59 |
|
| 58 |
+
|
| 59 |
+
## sources
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
```json
|
| 62 |
+
{
|
| 63 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 64 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl",
|
| 65 |
+
"digest": "ad8f5e4b11657628",
|
| 66 |
+
"rows": 3520,
|
| 67 |
+
"paired_rows": 3520,
|
| 68 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 69 |
+
"n": 687,
|
| 70 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
|
| 71 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.04707423580786036,
|
| 72 |
+
"total_pnl": -32.34000000000007,
|
| 73 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13114385000981726,
|
| 74 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5208296943231437,
|
| 75 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3310262008733626,
|
| 76 |
+
"fees": 12.199999999999825,
|
| 77 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 78 |
+
"max_drawdown": 39.140000000000015,
|
| 79 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.4755882352941178,
|
| 80 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4244458281982735,
|
| 81 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.3338759718898338,
|
| 82 |
+
"t_stat": -2.7532117959150755,
|
| 83 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 84 |
+
-0.08058224163027658,
|
| 85 |
+
-0.013688046647230329
|
| 86 |
+
]
|
| 87 |
+
},
|
| 88 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 89 |
+
"n": 667,
|
| 90 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37631184407796103,
|
| 91 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.02697151424287854,
|
| 92 |
+
"total_pnl": -17.989999999999984,
|
| 93 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13726951047213964,
|
| 94 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5210756972111552,
|
| 95 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35764423076923096,
|
| 96 |
+
"fees": 12.209999999999825,
|
| 97 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 98 |
+
"max_drawdown": 25.280000000000005,
|
| 99 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.26455882352941185,
|
| 100 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.498877623695979,
|
| 101 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.17650461875403442,
|
| 102 |
+
"t_stat": -1.4554943730645193,
|
| 103 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 104 |
+
-0.06279305354558613,
|
| 105 |
+
0.008859374999999985
|
| 106 |
+
]
|
| 107 |
+
},
|
| 108 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16244699684179045,
|
| 109 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.16330027287988386
|
| 110 |
+
},
|
| 111 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 112 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl",
|
| 113 |
+
"digest": "62665e0cd2059409",
|
| 114 |
+
"rows": 3520,
|
| 115 |
+
"paired_rows": 3520,
|
| 116 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 117 |
+
"n": 731,
|
| 118 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3857729138166895,
|
| 119 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.014487004103967173,
|
| 120 |
+
"total_pnl": -10.590000000000003,
|
| 121 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1367266618079597,
|
| 122 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5007092198581556,
|
| 123 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.33806236080178187,
|
| 124 |
+
"fees": 13.169999999999805,
|
| 125 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 126 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.730000000000015,
|
| 127 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.1557352941176473,
|
| 128 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.5647519627737778,
|
| 129 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.09952714412422345,
|
| 130 |
+
"t_stat": -0.8207218556804907,
|
| 131 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 132 |
+
-0.04808785529715764,
|
| 133 |
+
0.020402219140083205
|
| 134 |
+
]
|
| 135 |
+
},
|
| 136 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 137 |
+
"n": 667,
|
| 138 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37631184407796103,
|
| 139 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.02697151424287854,
|
| 140 |
+
"total_pnl": -17.989999999999984,
|
| 141 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13726951047213964,
|
| 142 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5210756972111552,
|
| 143 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35764423076923096,
|
| 144 |
+
"fees": 12.209999999999825,
|
| 145 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 146 |
+
"max_drawdown": 25.280000000000005,
|
| 147 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.26455882352941185,
|
| 148 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.498877623695979,
|
| 149 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.17650461875403442,
|
| 150 |
+
"t_stat": -1.4554943730645193,
|
| 151 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 152 |
+
-0.06279305354558613,
|
| 153 |
+
0.008859374999999985
|
| 154 |
+
]
|
| 155 |
+
},
|
| 156 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16440274346234135,
|
| 157 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.16330027287988386
|
| 158 |
+
}
|
| 159 |
+
}
|
| 160 |
+
```
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
## simulation
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
```json
|
| 165 |
+
[
|
| 166 |
+
{
|
| 167 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 168 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 169 |
+
"final": 917.17,
|
| 170 |
+
"return": -0.0828,
|
| 171 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2458,
|
| 172 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 173 |
+
"entered": 125,
|
| 174 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 175 |
+
"edge": 542
|
| 176 |
+
},
|
| 177 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 178 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 292.99
|
| 179 |
+
},
|
| 180 |
+
{
|
| 181 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 182 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 183 |
+
"final": 311.01,
|
| 184 |
+
"return": -0.689,
|
| 185 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.831,
|
| 186 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 187 |
+
"entered": 125,
|
| 188 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 189 |
+
"edge": 542
|
| 190 |
+
},
|
| 191 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 192 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1225.8
|
| 193 |
+
},
|
| 194 |
+
{
|
| 195 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 196 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 197 |
+
"final": 467.57,
|
| 198 |
+
"return": -0.5324,
|
| 199 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7188,
|
| 200 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 201 |
+
"entered": 125,
|
| 202 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 203 |
+
"edge": 542
|
| 204 |
+
},
|
| 205 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 206 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1037.47
|
| 207 |
+
},
|
| 208 |
+
{
|
| 209 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 210 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 211 |
+
"final": 1180.82,
|
| 212 |
+
"return": 0.1808,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1819,
|
| 214 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 215 |
+
"entered": 29,
|
| 216 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 217 |
+
"edge": 175,
|
| 218 |
+
"kill-switch": 463
|
| 219 |
+
},
|
| 220 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-08-07",
|
| 221 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 262.47
|
| 222 |
+
}
|
| 223 |
+
]
|
| 224 |
+
```
|
replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-22.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|