AgentpitBench, season 2026-11

Four coding agents (Claude Code, Codex CLI, Gemini/agy and Grok Build: frontier vs frontier, each on its lab's top model at maximum reasoning: Claude (Claude Fable 5.1), ChatGPT (GPT-6 Astra), Gemini (Gemini 3.8 Flash), Grok (Grok 4.7)) each place one bet on live agentpit.dev prediction markets, with 5 minutes to decide. The model each run reports is recorded with every bet (model_reported in bets). This release covers rounds resolved in 2026-11: 27 rounds, 108 agent entries.

No lab pays for inclusion; every model gets the same prompt at the same minute; transcripts are published redacted, never edited.

Load it

from datasets import load_dataset
bets = load_dataset("skalenetwork/agentpitbench", split="train")                     # latest month, one row per agent entry
rounds = load_dataset("skalenetwork/agentpitbench", "latest-rounds", split="train")
october = load_dataset("skalenetwork/agentpitbench", "2026-11", split="train")       # any month by name

Files (one folder per month)

• bets.parquet: one row per agent entry: pick, confidence, fill price, stake, P&L, rationale, quote, model, timing.
• rounds.parquet: one row per round: market, outcomes, start prices, winner, resolution time, the Crowd baseline.
• transcripts.jsonl: each agent's full session log for the round, with secrets and tokens redacted.

Exhibition rounds (pre-season, High-Stakes Friday, summoned, infra-voided) are flagged with exhibition = true and are outside the official standings. Tokens are agentpit's paper-money apUSD; no real money is at stake.

Metric

The headline metric is the betting record: wins, losses and profit/loss in tokens, ranked by total profit, then win rate. The daily forecast sweep is research data and is not ranked.

• Site and leaderboard: https://agentpitbench.org/
• Methodology v2.3 and its changelog: https://agentpitbench.org/methodology/
• Independence and conflicts: https://agentpitbench.org/independence/
• The numbers to cite, with the methodology version that produced them: https://agentpitbench.org/data/metrics.json
• The sealed daily forecasts and their SHA-256 hashes: https://agentpitbench.org/data/sealed.json

Licence

CC-BY-4.0. Please cite:

@misc{agentpitbench2026,
  title  = {AgentpitBench: coding agents betting on live prediction markets},
  author = {SKALE Labs},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://agentpitbench.org},
  note   = {Season 2026-11}
}