meta dict | outcome dict | extension_R dict | giveback_R dict | median_range_usd float64 | by_direction dict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
{
"symbol": "XAUUSDm",
"bars": 70952,
"start": "2025-07-31T00:00:00",
"end": "2026-08-04T00:00:00",
"sessions_full": 258,
"sessions_dropped_partial": 58,
"sessions_no_breakout": 24,
"breakouts": 234,
"range_hours": "00:00-07:59 server",
"break_hours": "08:00-20:59 server"
} | {
"follow_through": 121,
"follow_through_pct": 51.7,
"failed": 113,
"failed_pct": 48.3,
"full_reversal": 28,
"full_reversal_pct": 12
} | {
"p25": 0.33,
"median": 0.6,
"p75": 1.06,
"p90": 1.66
} | {
"p25": 0.18,
"median": 0.38,
"p75": 0.87,
"p90": 1.41
} | 46.57 | {
"up": {
"n": 138,
"follow_pct": 50
},
"down": {
"n": 96,
"follow_pct": 54.2
}
} |
XAUUSD Session Breakout Follow-Through (2025-2026)
Whether a break of the overnight range on gold actually continues in the direction of the break, tested rather than assumed.
What this measures
Breakouts of the overnight range on XAUUSD, classified by whether price continued in the breakout direction or reversed, with the extension and give-back measured in units of the range (R).
Headline finding
234 breakouts were recorded across 258 full sessions and 51.7% followed through (121 of 234). That is close enough to a coin flip that direction is not the edge. The asymmetry that is real sits in size: median extension was 0.60R against a median give-back of 0.38R. Split by direction, upside breaks followed through 50.0% of the time (n=138) and downside breaks 54.2% (n=96).
Method
70,952 five-minute XAUUSD bars, 2025-07-31 to 2026-08-04. The overnight range is 00:00-07:59 server and the breakout window is 08:00-20:59 server. A breakout is a break of that range during the window; follow-through means price extended further in the breakout direction before giving back the range. Outcomes are measured in units of the range itself (R) so they compare across volatility regimes. 258 sessions were used, 58 partial sessions dropped, and 24 sessions produced no breakout at all. Median overnight range was $46.57.
Source data is a single archive of five-minute XAUUSD bars recorded from a live MetaTrader 5 feed on a raw-spread account. Nothing here is simulated. Sessions that were partially recorded were dropped rather than padded, and the count of dropped sessions is stated above.
Files
session_breakout.json— outcome counts, extension and give-back distributions in R, and the split by direction
Full write-up
The complete analysis, including the charts and the caveats, is published at https://techkick.me/research/xauusd-session-breakout.
Citation
The underlying bar archive is deposited on Zenodo with a permanent identifier.
@dataset{techkick_xauusd,
author = {Tech Kick},
title = {XAUUSD hourly bar archive},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Zenodo},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.21973215},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21973215}
}
Licensed CC BY 4.0. Reuse commercially, attribute, no permission needed.
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