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Reference papers

127 papers on uncertainty estimation, misclassification / failure detection, OOD detection and internal-state probing, 2020–2026 (a few older iconic ones). PDFs are not committed; bash reference_papers/fetch.sh re-downloads them from manifest.tsv. Layout: reference_papers/<venue>/<year>_<slug>.pdf; Findings, demo and workshop papers live under their parent conference with a findings_/demo_/blackboxnlp_ prefix. LaTeX templates for the target venues are under templates/.

NAACL (19)

year file title source
2021 2021_noisy_ner_confidence.pdf Noisy-Labeled NER with Confidence Estimation acl:2021.naacl-main.269
2022 2022_findings_pcee_bert_early_exit.pdf PCEE-BERT: Accelerating BERT Inference via Patient and Confident Early Exiting acl:2022.findings-naacl.25
2022 2022_wu_revisit_overconfidence_ood.pdf Revisit Overconfidence for OOD Detection: Reassigned Contrastive Learning with Adaptive Class-dependent Threshold acl:2022.naacl-main.307
2024 2024_findings_he_ue_sequential_labeling.pdf Uncertainty Estimation on Sequential Labeling via Uncertainty Transmission acl:2024.findings-naacl.180
2024 2024_geng_survey_confidence_calibration_llm.pdf A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models acl:2024.naacl-long.366
2024 2024_kabra_program_aided_know.pdf Program-Aided Reasoners (Better) Know What They Know acl:2024.naacl-long.125
2024 2024_ling_uq_icl.pdf Uncertainty Quantification for In-Context Learning of Large Language Models acl:2024.naacl-long.184
2024 2024_zhang_calibration_icl.pdf A Study on the Calibration of In-context Learning acl:2024.naacl-long.340
2025 2025_belief_tree_hallucination.pdf A Probabilistic Framework for LLM Hallucination Detection via Belief Tree Propagation acl:2025.naacl-long.158
2025 2025_beyond_logit_lens_hallucination.pdf Beyond Logit Lens: Contextual Embeddings for Robust Hallucination Detection & Grounding in VLMs acl:2025.naacl-long.488
2025 2025_findings_llm_ood_survey.pdf Large Language Models for Anomaly and Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey acl:2025.findings-naacl.333
2025 2025_findings_long_context_hallucination.pdf Towards Long Context Hallucination Detection acl:2025.findings-naacl.436
2025 2025_findings_maqa_data_uncertainty.pdf MAQA: Evaluating Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs Regarding Data Uncertainty acl:2025.findings-naacl.325
2025 2025_findings_sycophancy_ue.pdf Accounting for Sycophancy in Language Model Uncertainty Estimation acl:2025.findings-naacl.438
2025 2025_findings_trainable_scoring_ue.pdf Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs acl:2025.findings-naacl.41
2025 2025_findings_vazhentsev_knn_ue.pdf Efficient Nearest Neighbor based Uncertainty Estimation for NLP Tasks acl:2025.findings-naacl.246
2025 2025_mice_model_internal_confidence.pdf MICE for CATs: Model-Internal Confidence Estimation for Calibrating Agents with Tools acl:2025.naacl-long.615
2025 2025_sciurus_uncertainty_circuits.pdf SCIURus: Shared Circuits for Interpretable Uncertainty Representations in Language Models acl:2025.naacl-long.618
2025 2025_vazhentsev_token_density_uq.pdf Token-Level Density-Based Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Eliciting Truthfulness of LLMs acl:2025.naacl-long.113

ACL (30)

year file title source
2020 2020_hendrycks_pretrained_ood_robustness.pdf Pretrained Transformers Improve Out-of-Distribution Robustness acl:2020.acl-main.244
2020 2020_kamath_selective_qa.pdf Selective Question Answering under Domain Shift acl:2020.acl-main.503
2021 2021_xin_art_of_abstention.pdf The Art of Abstention: Selective Prediction and Error Regularization for NLP acl:2021.acl-long.84
2021 2021_xu_unsupervised_ood_pretrained.pdf Unsupervised Out-of-Domain Detection via Pre-trained Transformers acl:2021.acl-long.85
2022 2022_findings_varshney_selective_prediction.pdf Investigating Selective Prediction Approaches Across Several Tasks in IID, OOD, and Adversarial Settings acl:2022.findings-acl.158
2022 2022_park_calibration_mixup_aum.pdf On the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Models using Mixup Guided by Area Under the Margin acl:2022.acl-long.368
2022 2022_vazhentsev_ue_misclassification.pdf Uncertainty Estimation of Transformer Predictions for Misclassification Detection acl:2022.acl-long.566
2022 2022_zhou_knn_contrastive_ood.pdf KNN-Contrastive Learning for Out-of-Domain Intent Classification acl:2022.acl-long.352
2023 2023_chen_close_look_calibration_plm.pdf A Close Look into the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Models acl:2023.acl-long.75
2023 2023_chen_evaluation_selective_prediction.pdf On the Evaluation of Neural Selective Prediction Methods for NLP acl:2023.acl-long.437
2023 2023_findings_pseudo_outlier_exposure.pdf Pseudo Outlier Exposure for Out-of-Distribution Detection using Pretrained Transformers acl:2023.findings-acl.95
2023 2023_findings_yin_llms_know_dont_know.pdf Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know? acl:2023.findings-acl.551
2023 2023_uppaal_is_finetuning_needed.pdf Is Fine-tuning Needed? Pre-trained Language Models Are Near Perfect for Out-of-Domain Detection acl:2023.acl-long.717
2023 2023_vazhentsev_hybrid_uq.pdf Hybrid Uncertainty Quantification for Selective Text Classification in Ambiguous Tasks acl:2023.acl-long.652
2024 2024_duan_shifting_attention_relevance.pdf Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form LLMs acl:2024.acl-long.276
2024 2024_findings_fadeeva_token_uq_factcheck.pdf Fact-Checking the Output of LLMs via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification acl:2024.findings-acl.558
2024 2024_findings_su_mind_internal_states.pdf Unsupervised Real-Time Hallucination Detection based on the Internal States of LLMs acl:2024.findings-acl.854
2024 2024_mars_meaning_aware_scoring.pdf MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs acl:2024.acl-long.419
2025 2025_findings_survey_ue_llm.pdf A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation Methods on Large Language Models acl:2025.findings-acl.1101
2025 2025_hidden_states_hiding_something.pdf Are the Hidden States Hiding Something? Testing the Limits of Factuality-Encoding Capabilities in LLMs acl:2025.acl-long.304
2025 2025_icr_probe_hidden_state_dynamics.pdf ICR Probe: Tracking Hidden State Dynamics for Reliable Hallucination Detection in LLMs acl:2025.acl-long.880
2025 2025_internal_states_knowledge_boundary.pdf Towards Fully Exploiting LLM Internal States to Enhance Knowledge Boundary Perception acl:2025.acl-long.1184
2025 2025_overconfident_and_other_lies.pdf Your Model is Overconfident, and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves acl:2025.acl-long.269
2025 2025_prompt_guided_internal_states.pdf Prompt-Guided Internal States for Hallucination Detection of Large Language Models acl:2025.acl-long.1058
2025 2025_short_uq_evaluation_spurious.pdf Revisiting Uncertainty Quantification Evaluation in Language Models: Spurious Interactions with Response Length acl:2025.acl-short.60
2025 2025_zhang_llm_ue_in_the_wild.pdf Reconsidering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Methods in the Wild acl:2025.acl-long.1429
2026 2026_findings_confidence_evaluation_pitfalls.pdf Evaluation Pitfalls and Sparsity Limitations in LLM-based Confidence Estimates for Classification acl:2026.findings-acl.1671
2026 2026_findings_internal_states_recall.pdf Do LLMs Really Know What They Don't Know? Internal States Mainly Reflect Knowledge Recall acl:2026.findings-acl.34
2026 2026_reprobe_internal_states.pdf ReProbe: Efficient Test-Time Scaling of Multi-Step Reasoning by Probing Internal States acl:2026.acl-long.536
2026 2026_topological_divergence_attention_hallucination.pdf Hallucination Detection in LLMs with Topological Divergence on Attention Graphs acl:2026.acl-long.704

EMNLP (25)

year file title source
2020 2020_desai_calibration_pretrained_transformers.pdf Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers acl:2020.emnlp-main.21
2020 2020_he_accurate_ue_text_classification.pdf Towards More Accurate Uncertainty Estimation In Text Classification acl:2020.emnlp-main.671
2020 2020_kong_calibrated_finetuning.pdf Calibrated Language Model Fine-Tuning for In- and Out-of-Distribution Data acl:2020.emnlp-main.102
2021 2021_arora_types_of_ood_texts.pdf Types of Out-of-Distribution Texts and How to Detect Them acl:2021.emnlp-main.835
2021 2021_kushnareva_topology_attention.pdf Artificial Text Detection via Examining the Topology of Attention Maps acl:2021.emnlp-main.50
2021 2021_zhou_contrastive_ood.pdf Contrastive Out-of-Distribution Detection for Pretrained Transformers acl:2021.emnlp-main.84
2022 2022_findings_cherniavskii_acceptability_topology.pdf Acceptability Judgements via Examining the Topology of Attention Maps acl:2022.findings-emnlp.7
2022 2022_findings_cho_implicit_layer_ensemble_ood.pdf Enhancing OOD Detection in NLU via Implicit Layer Ensemble acl:2022.findings-emnlp.55
2022 2022_findings_holistic_sentence_embeddings_ood.pdf Holistic Sentence Embeddings for Better Out-of-Distribution Detection acl:2022.findings-emnlp.497
2022 2022_findings_ulmer_uncertainty_calibration_nlp.pdf Exploring Predictive Uncertainty and Calibration in NLP acl:2022.findings-emnlp.198
2022 2022_findings_xiao_uq_plm_empirical.pdf Uncertainty Quantification with Pre-trained Language Models: A Large-Scale Empirical Analysis acl:2022.findings-emnlp.538
2023 2023_demo_lm_polygraph.pdf LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models acl:2023.emnlp-demo.41
2023 2023_findings_azaria_internal_state_lying.pdf The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying acl:2023.findings-emnlp.68
2023 2023_findings_document_ood_critical.pdf A Critical Analysis of Document Out-of-Distribution Detection acl:2023.findings-emnlp.332
2023 2023_flats_likelihood_ratio_ood.pdf FLatS: Principled Out-of-Distribution Detection with Feature-Based Likelihood Ratio Score acl:2023.emnlp-main.554
2023 2023_slobodkin_unanswerability_hidden_states.pdf The Curious Case of Hallucinatory (Un)answerability: Finding Truths in the Hidden States of LLMs acl:2023.emnlp-main.220
2023 2023_tian_just_ask_for_calibration.pdf Just Ask for Calibration acl:2023.emnlp-main.330
2024 2024_blackboxnlp_ji_internal_states_risk.pdf LLM Internal States Reveal Hallucination Risk Faced With a Query acl:2024.blackboxnlp-1.6
2024 2024_embedding_gradient_say_wrong.pdf Embedding and Gradient Say Wrong: A White-Box Method for Hallucination Detection acl:2024.emnlp-main.116
2024 2024_findings_internal_inspector.pdf InternalInspector: Robust Confidence Estimation in LLMs through Internal States acl:2024.findings-emnlp.751
2024 2024_gottesman_geva_knowledge_without_token.pdf Estimating Knowledge in LLMs Without Generating a Single Token acl:2024.emnlp-main.232
2025 2025_findings_representation_detectors_fail_ood.pdf Representation-based Broad Hallucination Detectors Fail to Generalize Out of Distribution acl:2025.findings-emnlp.952
2025 2025_illusion_of_progress_hallucination.pdf The Illusion of Progress: Re-evaluating Hallucination Detection in LLMs acl:2025.emnlp-main.1761
2025 2025_kim_layerwise_information_deficiency.pdf Detecting LLM Hallucination Through Layer-wise Information Deficiency acl:2025.emnlp-main.1644
2025 2025_uq_heads_predict_question.pdf A Head to Predict and a Head to Question: Pre-trained Uncertainty Quantification Heads acl:2025.emnlp-main.1809

TACL (1)

year file title source
2025 2025_vashurin_lm_polygraph_benchmark.pdf Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for LLMs with LM-Polygraph acl:2025.tacl-1.11

EACL (2)

year file title source
2024 2024_spuq_perturbation_uq.pdf SPUQ: Perturbation-Based Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models acl:2024.eacl-long.143
2026 2026_confidence_estimators_reasoning_models.pdf How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? acl:2026.eacl-long.78

COLING (1)

year file title source
2020 2020_mahalanobis_generative_ood.pdf A Deep Generative Distance-Based Classifier for Out-of-Domain Detection with Mahalanobis Space acl:2020.coling-main.125

ICLR (12)

year file title source
2021 2021_sehwag_ssd.pdf SSD: A Unified Framework for Self-Supervised Outlier Detection arxiv:2103.12051
2023 2023_burns_discovering_latent_knowledge.pdf Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision arxiv:2212.03827
2023 2023_galil_selective_prediction_imagenet.pdf What Can We Learn From The Selective Prediction And Uncertainty Estimation Performance Of 523 Imagenet Classifiers arxiv:2302.11874
2023 2023_he_preserving_pretrained_features_calibration.pdf Preserving Pre-trained Features Helps Calibrate Fine-tuned Language Models arxiv:2305.19249
2023 2023_jaeger_failure_detection_evaluation.pdf A Call to Reflect on Evaluation Practices for Failure Detection in Image Classification arxiv:2211.15259
2023 2023_kuhn_semantic_uncertainty.pdf Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in NLG arxiv:2302.09664
2023 2023_ming_hyperspherical_ood.pdf How to Exploit Hyperspherical Embeddings for Out-of-Distribution Detection? arxiv:2203.04450
2023 2023_ren_rmd_selective_generation.pdf Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models arxiv:2209.15558
2024 2024_chen_inside.pdf INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection arxiv:2402.03744
2024 2024_chuang_dola.pdf DoLa: Decoding by Contrasting Layers Improves Factuality in LLMs arxiv:2309.03883
2024 2024_xiong_llms_express_uncertainty.pdf Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation arxiv:2306.13063
2025 2025_orgad_llms_know_more.pdf LLMs Know More Than They Show: On the Intrinsic Representation of LLM Hallucinations arxiv:2410.02707

NeurIPS (7)

year file title source
2020 2020_liu_energy_ood.pdf Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection arxiv:2010.03759
2020 2020_liu_sngp.pdf Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness arxiv:2006.10108
2021 2021_fort_exploring_limits_ood.pdf Exploring the Limits of Out-of-Distribution Detection arxiv:2106.03004
2022 2022_kotelevskii_nuq.pdf Nonparametric Uncertainty Quantification for Single Deterministic Neural Network arxiv:2202.03101
2023 2023_li_inference_time_intervention.pdf Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model arxiv:2306.03341
2023 2023_tulchinskii_intrinsic_dimension.pdf Intrinsic Dimension Estimation for Robust Detection of AI-Generated Texts arxiv:2306.04723
2024 2024_traub_augrc.pdf Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systems arxiv:2407.01032

ICML (5)

year file title source
2020 2020_moon_crl.pdf Confidence-Aware Learning for Deep Neural Networks arxiv:2007.01458
2020 2020_vanamersfoort_duq.pdf Uncertainty Estimation Using a Single Deep Deterministic Neural Network arxiv:2003.02037
2022 2022_hendrycks_maxlogit.pdf Scaling Out-of-Distribution Detection for Real-World Settings arxiv:1911.11132
2022 2022_sun_knn_ood.pdf Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Nearest Neighbors arxiv:2204.06507
2025 2025_skean_layer_by_layer.pdf Layer by Layer: Uncovering Hidden Representations in Language Models arxiv:2502.02013

AAAI (1)

year file title source
2021 2021_podolskiy_mahalanobis_transformers.pdf Revisiting Mahalanobis Distance for Transformer-Based Out-of-Domain Detection arxiv:2101.03778

CVPR (3)

year file title source
2022 2022_wang_vim.pdf ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching arxiv:2203.10807
2023 2023_mukhoti_ddu.pdf Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A New Simple Baseline arxiv:2102.11582
2023 2023_zhu_openmix.pdf OpenMix: Exploring Outlier Samples for Misclassification Detection arxiv:2303.17093

TPAMI (1)

year file title source
2024 2024_zhu_revisiting_confidence_failure_prediction.pdf Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Prediction arxiv:2403.02886

TMLR (4)

year file title source
2022 2022_rabanser_training_dynamics.pdf Selective Prediction via Training Dynamics arxiv:2205.13532
2023 2023_lahlou_deup.pdf DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction arxiv:2102.08501
2024 2024_lang_ood_nlp_survey.pdf A Survey on Out-of-Distribution Detection in NLP arxiv:2305.03236
2024 2024_lin_generating_with_confidence.pdf Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box LLMs arxiv:2305.19187

COLM (1)

year file title source
2024 2024_marks_geometry_of_truth.pdf The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in LLM Representations of True/False Datasets arxiv:2310.06824

UAI (1)

year file title source
2024 2024_cattelan_fix_broken_confidence.pdf How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator arxiv:2305.15508

KDD (1)

year file title source
2024 2024_snyder_early_detection_hallucination.pdf On Early Detection of Hallucinations in Factual Question Answering arxiv:2312.14183

IJCV (1)

year file title source
2024 2024_yang_generalized_ood_survey.pdf Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey arxiv:2110.11334

arXiv (12)

year file title source
2021 2021_ren_relative_mahalanobis.pdf A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection arxiv:2106.09022
2022 2022_kadavath_mostly_know.pdf Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know arxiv:2207.05221
2023 2023_belrose_tuned_lens.pdf Eliciting Latent Predictions from Transformers with the Tuned Lens arxiv:2303.08112
2024 2024_kossen_semantic_entropy_probes.pdf Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs arxiv:2406.15927
2024 2024_liu_supervised_ue_llm.pdf Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach arxiv:2404.15993
2025 2025_clue_hidden_state_clustering.pdf CLUE: Non-parametric Verification from Experience via Hidden-State Clustering arxiv:2510.01591
2025 2025_kim_layerwise_inference_dynamics.pdf On the Effect of Uncertainty on Layer-wise Inference Dynamics arxiv:2507.06722
2025 2025_sridhar_clinical_doubt.pdf Mapping Clinical Doubt: Locating Linguistic Uncertainty in LLMs arxiv:2511.22402
2025 2025_suresh_clap_cross_layer_probing.pdf Cross-Layer Attention Probing for Fine-Grained Hallucination Detection arxiv:2509.09700
2026 2026_cho_confidence_manifold.pdf The Confidence Manifold: Geometric Structure of Correctness arxiv:2602.08159
2026 2026_delajara_representation_trajectories.pdf Representation Trajectories Matter arxiv:2607.26565
2026 2026_eusebi_calibrated_uncertainty_trajectories.pdf Reading Calibrated Uncertainty from Language Model Trajectories arxiv:2605.22864

Templates

dir venue source
templates/acl-style-files ACL / NAACL / EMNLP / EACL (shared ACL style, acl.sty, acl_natbib.bst) github.com/acl-org/acl-style-files
templates/neurips2025 NeurIPS 2025 media.neurips.cc
templates/iclr2026 ICLR 2026 github.com/ICLR/Master-Template
templates/icml2025 ICML 2025 media.icml.cc
templates/aaai2026-quarto/_extensions/aaai2026 AAAI-26 (aaai2026.sty, aaai2026.bst; aaai.org blocks direct download, this is a mirror of the kit's style files) github.com/Selbosh/aaai2026-quarto
templates/ieeetran IEEE Transactions / IEEE Access (IEEEtran.cls) CTAN