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Released under the Forma Non-Commercial Research Licence v1.0 (see LICENSE.md). Non-commercial academic research only; no redistribution; attribution required. ALL COMMERCIAL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED to The University of Texas at Austin β for commercial licensing, contact UT Discovery to Impact (ip@discoveries.utexas.edu). No Compustat records are distributed and firm-level Compustat values cannot be reconstructed from these weights, so no WRDS licence is required to download them; reproducing the training or evaluation data does require your own.
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Forma β pro-forma financial statement forecaster
Forma jointly forecasts the complete quarterly financial statements of U.S. public firms at horizons of 1β20 quarters, emitting a predictive distribution per statement item.
This repository holds the trained weights and the artifacts required to run or
score them. The model code is separate, under The University of Texas at
Austin Research License v1.1:
forma-lab-mccombs/forma-release.
These are the camera-ready (R14) weights behind the ICAIF '26 paper's published numbers: dataset
r14_node_optionD_indfe_val8, configsr14_forma_{fgrid,lap05_fgrid}_seed{60..64}.yaml. The R14 rebuild re-fit the asinh scale k to target total kurtosis 3, dropped the CRSP link-window trim, and deduplicated the train+val union, so the target space differs from the pre-camera-ready (R13) release. The R13 weights and statistics stay downloadable at ther13tag of this repository (hf download forma-lab-mccombs/forma --revision r13). Do not mix files across the two revisions.
Contents
| file | what |
|---|---|
checkpoints/forma_gaussian_seed{60..64}.ckpt |
Gaussian Ξ²-NLL fleet, 5 seeds (11.4 MB each) β the squared-error / point track |
checkpoints/forma_laplace_seed{60..64}.ckpt |
Laplace fleet, 5 seeds β the absolute-error track |
reference/regularization_stats.parquet |
per-(account, quarter) ΞΌ / Ο / k β required to encode inputs or decode outputs |
reference/account_id_map.csv |
account name β id; the account embedding is indexed by this, so it must match training |
The weights are inert without the regularization statistics. Forma predicts a per-account, per-quarter asinh z-score; without (ΞΌ, Ο, k) you can neither build inputs nor interpret outputs. They ship here for that reason.
Training configurations live in the code repository
(forma-release), not here.
No firm-identifier map is distributed: Forma consumes no firm identity β there is
no firm embedding β so none is needed to run the model.
Model
Gaussian Ξ²-NLL, transformer-only (no constraint-correction layer, no reconciliation), ~1M parameters. Trained on Compustat quarterly filings 1971β2001, validated 2002β2009, tested 2010+. Universal forecaster: observable accounting and industry data only, no firm-specific identifiers.
The released forecasts are the 5-seed equal-weight mixture of the Gaussian fleet, not any single seed.
Intended use and limitations
Academic research on financial-statement forecasting. Not investment advice;
see LICENSE.md Β§9.
- Calibration (5-seed Gaussian mixture, 379,859,933-cell test sample). The central intervals never under-cover at any horizon: 90% coverage runs 0.926β0.949 and 95% runs 0.952β0.964 across h = 1β20. The central 50% interval is over-wide (0.67β0.78 vs 0.50). The mixture zΜΒ² is 1.09 pooled, drifting from 1.14 at h=1 to 0.99 at h=20.
- Reg stats stop at 2024Q4. Applying Forma to later data requires
re-estimating (ΞΌ, Ο, k) from your own Compustat pull β the builder is in the
proforma-20qbenchmark package. Re-estimated statistics define a different target space, and scores computed against them are not comparable to published numbers. - Financial firms are excluded (SIC 6000β6999).
- Dollar-space skew. If you back-transform to dollars, note that a Gaussian in z-space is lognormal-tailed in dollars: use quantiles, and treat the predictive standard deviation as unusable in the tail. See the USD forecast dataset card.
Related
| Model code, configs, competitors | forma-release (UT Austin Research License v1.1) |
| Benchmark package + builder | proforma-20q (Apache-2.0) |
| Forecasts in USD ($M) | forma-lab-mccombs/forma-usd-forecasts (WRDS-conditioned, gated) |
| Standardized forecasts + sample mask | forma-lab-mccombs/proforma-20q-artifacts (WRDS-conditioned, gated) |
Licence
Forma Non-Commercial Research Licence v1.0 β see LICENSE.md.
Non-commercial academic research only; no redistribution; attribution required.
All commercial rights are reserved to The University of Texas at Austin. For
commercial licensing, contact UT Discovery to Impact (ip@discoveries.utexas.edu).
Downloading the weights does not require a WRDS/Compustat licence: no Compustat records are distributed here and firm-level values cannot be reconstructed from ~1M model parameters. Rebuilding the training or evaluation data does require your own WRDS access β see the benchmark repo.
Earlier (pre-camera-ready) weights were previously distributed under
Apache-2.0. That grant is irrevocable as to copies already obtained; this licence
governs materials obtained here and all subsequent versions, including these
camera-ready weights (LICENSE.md Β§10).
Derived from Compustat under UT Austin's academic subscription. S&P Global Market Intelligence retains all rights in the underlying data.
Citation
See CITATION.cff in forma-release.