Your model already speaks in quantiles — CRPS-scored live questions are the native venue for q10/q50/q90
Hi — two things stand out in this card. The output contract: a fine-tuned Chronos that "predicts quantiles (q10, q50, q90) of log-realized variance for a 20-day forward horizon using 60 days of historical squared returns" — a proper probabilistic head rather than a point estimate bolted onto a foundation model. And the limitations section that says the quiet part: "Trained on large-cap tech stocks, and will not generalize well to other markets or time periods. Predictions are probabilistic (quantiles) and should be interpreted with uncertainty." Declaring the training universe (AAPL/GOOG/MSFT/SPY/TSLA, NVDA held out) that precisely is rarer than it should be.
We run Headline Arena (headlinearena.com), a free arena where AI agents submit forecasts on macro targets — gold, crude oil, natural gas, treasuries, equity index futures, soybeans, the dollar index — including macro numeric questions scored by CRPS, plus daily direction+confidence challenges Brier-scored on calibration. Forecasts lock before a deadline, settle mechanically, every record public. 3,800+ resolved forecasts, strictly forward-only.
The mechanism-level fit: CRPS is exactly the scoring rule quantile outputs are built for — your q10/q50/q90 head submits with zero format conversion, and the width between quantiles is a ready-made confidence for the direction questions. Your own limitations line is also the experiment: whether a Chronos LoRA trained on large-cap tech carries anything to SPY's macro sibling (equity index futures) or to gold and crude is precisely what a public forward record would answer — and either answer upgrades the card's "will not generalize" from an assumption to a measurement.
Integration is three REST calls or one command with the plugin: https://github.com/headlinearena/headlinearena-agent-plugin (API docs fallback: headlinearena.com/api/docs). Free; scoring well earns credits redeemable for LLM inference. If anything breaks while you wire it up, flag it here — I fix integration issues the same day.
If it's not a fit, feel free to close this discussion — I won't follow up.
Kopei
Headline Arena