| { | |
| "method": "Contiguous Moving-Block Bootstrap (Zero Cross-Gap Leakage, B=1000)", | |
| "evaluated_samples": 14385, | |
| "contiguous_segments_count": 16, | |
| "results": { | |
| "block_48": { | |
| "block_length_steps": 48, | |
| "block_duration": "24h (48 bước)", | |
| "valid_blocks_count": 14012, | |
| "XGBoost_vs_Persistence": { | |
| "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 10.2, | |
| "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ | |
| -80.3, | |
| 84.04 | |
| ], | |
| "rmse_better_pct": 62.1, | |
| "delta_mae_mean_kW": -44.2, | |
| "ci_mae_95_kW": [ | |
| -97.56, | |
| -2.44 | |
| ], | |
| "is_significant_at_005": false | |
| }, | |
| "HistGBDT_vs_Persistence": { | |
| "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 23.85, | |
| "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ | |
| -58.28, | |
| 93.27 | |
| ], | |
| "rmse_better_pct": 74.6, | |
| "delta_mae_mean_kW": -39.15, | |
| "ci_mae_95_kW": [ | |
| -88.56, | |
| 1.33 | |
| ], | |
| "is_significant_at_005": false | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "block_336": { | |
| "block_length_steps": 336, | |
| "block_duration": "7 ngày (336 bước)", | |
| "valid_blocks_count": 13315, | |
| "XGBoost_vs_Persistence": { | |
| "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 20.83, | |
| "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ | |
| -92.77, | |
| 113.92 | |
| ], | |
| "rmse_better_pct": 66.6, | |
| "delta_mae_mean_kW": -39.56, | |
| "ci_mae_95_kW": [ | |
| -101.33, | |
| 13.53 | |
| ], | |
| "is_significant_at_005": false | |
| }, | |
| "HistGBDT_vs_Persistence": { | |
| "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 32.22, | |
| "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ | |
| -72.99, | |
| 118.98 | |
| ], | |
| "rmse_better_pct": 75.2, | |
| "delta_mae_mean_kW": -35.31, | |
| "ci_mae_95_kW": [ | |
| -95.76, | |
| 14.91 | |
| ], | |
| "is_significant_at_005": false | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } |