Add StormScope Flash GOES and MRMS/GLM checkpoints

.gitattributes

@@ -53,3 +53,4 @@ checkpoints/mrms/3km_10min/expert_1.mdlus filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 checkpoints/mrms/3km_10min/expert_2.mdlus filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 checkpoints/mrms/6km_1hr/expert_0.mdlus filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 checkpoints/mrms/6km_1hr/expert_1.mdlus filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
+checkpoints/*/3km_10min_flash/*.mdlus filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

README.md

@@ -15,7 +15,15 @@ Models predicting MRMS are conditioned on the most recent GOES state variables.
 
 For inference see [NVIDIA Earth2Studio](https://github.com/NVIDIA/earth2studio).
 
-This model is ready for commercial or non-commercial use.
+## StormScope Flash
+
+StormScope Flash is a distilled 3 km, 10-minute forecasting variant for faster
+GOES and MRMS/GLM inference. It uses five model evaluations for GOES and seven for
+MRMS/GLM per forecast step, and supports full-CONUS and regional inference through
+Earth2Studio.
+
+See [MRMS forecasting skill](mrms_forecast_skill.md) for the comparison with
+StormScope, including the evaluation setup, metric definitions, and results.
 
 ### License/Terms of Use:
 

checkpoints/goes/3km_10min_flash/expert_0.mdlus

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checkpoints/goes/3km_10min_flash/expert_1.mdlus

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checkpoints/goes/3km_10min_flash/expert_2.mdlus

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checkpoints/mrms/3km_10min_flash/expert_0.mdlus

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checkpoints/mrms/3km_10min_flash/expert_1.mdlus

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checkpoints/mrms/3km_10min_flash/expert_2.mdlus

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mrms_forecast_skill.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+Metric,Model,30 min,60 min,120 min,180 min
+Object CSI,StormScope,0.685,0.533,0.335,0.220
+Object CSI,StormScope Flash,0.688,0.532,0.315,0.204
+CSI 40 dBZ,StormScope,0.597,0.479,0.348,0.271
+CSI 40 dBZ,StormScope Flash,0.593,0.464,0.326,0.246
+CSI 55 dBZ,StormScope,0.274,0.170,0.068,0.028
+CSI 55 dBZ,StormScope Flash,0.286,0.167,0.060,0.024
+pFSS 40 dBZ,StormScope,0.907,0.788,0.588,0.449
+pFSS 40 dBZ,StormScope Flash,0.913,0.800,0.593,0.433
+pFSS 55 dBZ,StormScope,0.719,0.502,0.201,0.064
+pFSS 55 dBZ,StormScope Flash,0.735,0.490,0.137,0.036

mrms_forecast_skill.md

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+# StormScope Flash: MRMS forecasting skill
+
+We evaluate composite radar-reflectivity forecasts from StormScope and its distilled StormScope Flash variant at 3 km spatial and 10-minute temporal resolution. Higher scores indicate greater forecast skill; a score of 1 denotes a perfect forecast.
+
+## Evaluation
+
+The evaluation comprises 929 cases initialized between 4 March and 9 August 2025. Both models generate coupled GOES and MRMS/GLM forecasts over the full 1024 × 1792 CONUS grid. Forecasts are extracted over the corresponding evaluation regions and verified against observed MRMS composite reflectivity on the 3 km grid at matching valid times. Each forecast comprises 16 ensemble members and 18 ten-minute lead times, extending to 180 minutes. StormScope Flash requires five GOES and seven MRMS/GLM network evaluations per forecast step.
+
+Deterministic metrics use the first ensemble member (member 0); probabilistic metrics use all 16 members.
+
+## Metrics
+
+**Object CSI.** Storm objects are identified as connected regions with reflectivity ≥40 dBZ, an embedded ≥45 dBZ core, and an area of at least 12 grid cells (108 km²). Forecast and observed objects are matched one-to-one based on centroid and boundary distances, using 40 km cutoffs, area-ratio weighting, and a total interest score >0.2. Object-based CSI is then calculated as H / (H + F + M), where H denotes hits, F false alarms, and M misses.
+
+**Neighborhood CSI at 40 and 55 dBZ.** Forecast and observed threshold-exceedance fields are each dilated using an 11 × 11-cell (33 × 33 km) window before calculating CSI from the resulting contingency counts.
+
+**Probabilistic Fractions Skill Score (pFSS).** Threshold-exceedance fractions are calculated over the same 11 × 11-cell window. Forecast fractions are averaged across the 16 members and compared with the observed fractions: pFSS = 1 − Σ(f − o)² / Σ(f² + o²), where f and o denote forecast and observed neighborhood fractions.
+
+## Forecast skill
+
+| Metric | Model | +30 min | +60 min | +120 min | +180 min |
+|:--|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|
+| Object CSI | StormScope | 0.685 | 0.533 | 0.335 | 0.220 |
+| Object CSI | **StormScope Flash ⚡** | 0.688 | 0.532 | 0.315 | 0.204 |
+| CSI 40 dBZ | StormScope | 0.597 | 0.479 | 0.348 | 0.271 |
+| CSI 40 dBZ | **StormScope Flash ⚡** | 0.593 | 0.464 | 0.326 | 0.246 |
+| CSI 55 dBZ | StormScope | 0.274 | 0.170 | 0.068 | 0.028 |
+| CSI 55 dBZ | **StormScope Flash ⚡** | 0.286 | 0.167 | 0.060 | 0.024 |
+| pFSS 40 dBZ | StormScope | 0.907 | 0.788 | 0.588 | 0.449 |
+| pFSS 40 dBZ | **StormScope Flash ⚡** | 0.913 | 0.800 | 0.593 | 0.433 |
+| pFSS 55 dBZ | StormScope | 0.719 | 0.502 | 0.201 | 0.064 |
+| pFSS 55 dBZ | **StormScope Flash ⚡** | 0.735 | 0.490 | 0.137 | 0.036 |
+
+[Download PDF](mrms_forecast_skill.pdf) · [Download table values](mrms_forecast_skill.csv).

registry.json

@@ -120,6 +120,60 @@
         "nexrad_proximity": false,
         "glm_channels": 0,
         "obs_layout": "time_interleaved"
+      },
+      "3km_10min_flash": {
+        "variables": [
+          "abi01c",
+          "abi02c",
+          "abi03c",
+          "abi07c",
+          "abi08c",
+          "abi09c",
+          "abi10c",
+          "abi13c"
+        ],
+        "conditioning_vars": [],
+        "image_size": [
+          1024,
+          1792
+        ],
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+        "sliding_window": true,
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+        "n_steps": 6,
+        "topo": true,
+        "nexrad_proximity": false,
+        "mrms_coverage_mask": false,
+        "flash": true,
+        "region_calls": {
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+          "middle": 1,
+          "low": 3
+        },
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+        "description": "StormScope Flash GOES - 3 km / 10 min"
       }
     },
     "aliases": {
@@ -180,7 +234,7 @@
         "n_steps": 6,
         "glm_normalization": "log1p",
         "obs_layout": "time_interleaved",
-	"mrms_coverage_mask": "true"
+        "mrms_coverage_mask": "true"
       },
       "6km_1hr": {
         "description": "6 km / 60 min MRMS nearcasting (legacy)",
@@ -221,6 +275,64 @@
         "nexrad_proximity": false,
         "glm_channels": 0,
         "obs_layout": "time_interleaved"
+      },
+      "3km_10min_flash": {
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+        "description": "StormScope Flash MRMS/GLM - 3 km / 10 min"
       }
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     "aliases": {