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Oct 16

Soft Strategy Selection for Batch-Mode Active Learning

Real-world deployment of active learning typically forces practitioners to choose an acquisition strategy before any data is labeled. This is a daunting task: strategy performance varies widely across settings (e.g. datasets, surrogate models) and cannot be assessed without deployment. Existing strategy selection methods explore one strategy from a portfolio at each round and identify the optimal one using bandit feedback or model retraining. Many acquisition rounds are therefore spent exploring strategies rather than collecting the most informative data. Such overhead is a major barrier to AL-driven design of high-throughput experiments, such as genetic perturbation screens and directed evolution, where AL runs consist of only a few rounds with large batch sizes. This regime permits a natural alternative: acquiring data using multiple AL strategies within a single batch. We refer to this as soft strategy selection and introduce FractAL, a method specifically designed for this task. FractAL infers a per-strategy reward using influence-function-based data attribution, which requires no additional retraining, and then computes budget shares for each strategy in the portfolio using online mirror descent. We benchmark FractAL across 7 setups spanning classification, regression, and genetic perturbation effect prediction. The results highlight that strategy selection is a hard problem: every existing method performs worse than random sampling on at least one setup. FractAL, however, matches or outperforms every baseline, including random sampling, on all 7 setups. Its allocations concentrate budget on the strongest strategies in the portfolio while pruning the weakest. FractAL is therefore a reliable choice for real-world deployments, where the optimal strategy is unknown in advance, an important step towards making AL practical for high-throughput experiments and modern scientific discovery.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 3

Towards Fewer Annotations: Active Learning via Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty for Domain Adaptive Semantic Segmentation

Self-training has greatly facilitated domain adaptive semantic segmentation, which iteratively generates pseudo labels on unlabeled target data and retrains the network. However, realistic segmentation datasets are highly imbalanced, pseudo labels are typically biased to the majority classes and basically noisy, leading to an error-prone and suboptimal model. In this paper, we propose a simple region-based active learning approach for semantic segmentation under a domain shift, aiming to automatically query a small partition of image regions to be labeled while maximizing segmentation performance. Our algorithm, Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty (RIPU), introduces a new acquisition strategy characterizing the spatial adjacency of image regions along with the prediction confidence. We show that the proposed region-based selection strategy makes more efficient use of a limited budget than image-based or point-based counterparts. Further, we enforce local prediction consistency between a pixel and its nearest neighbors on a source image. Alongside, we develop a negative learning loss to make the features more discriminative. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method only requires very few annotations to almost reach the supervised performance and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RIPU.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 25, 2021

ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisition

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized methods for Bayesian inference and experimental design offer part of the solution, neither approach is optimal in the most general and challenging task, where new data needs to be collected for instant inference. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Amortized Active Learning and Inference Engine (ALINE), a unified framework for amortized Bayesian inference and active data acquisition. ALINE leverages a transformer architecture trained via reinforcement learning with a reward based on self-estimated information gain provided by its own integrated inference component. This allows it to strategically query informative data points while simultaneously refining its predictions. Moreover, ALINE can selectively direct its querying strategy towards specific subsets of model parameters or designated predictive tasks, optimizing for posterior estimation, data prediction, or a mixture thereof. Empirical results on regression-based active learning, classical Bayesian experimental design benchmarks, and a psychometric model with selectively targeted parameters demonstrate that ALINE delivers both instant and accurate inference along with efficient selection of informative points.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 20, 2025

Video2Sim2Real: Full-Stack Autonomous Dexterous Skill Acquisition from a Single Human Video

Human manipulation videos are a convenient and intuitive source for robot learning. However, directly transferring human dexterity to robots remains challenging due to perception errors and embodiment gap. To address this, we introduce Video2Sim2Real, a full-stack framework for autonomous skill acquisition from a single human manipulation video. Our framework first uses off-the-shelf foundation models to reconstruct a simulator-ready digital twin and extract robot and object motion priors. Rather than treating the extracted robot motion as a reliable reference throughout execution, our key idea is to recover and leverage the most fundamental sources of supervision from the demonstrated skill: We identify object-centric keyframes to optimize the corresponding robot configurations using object information from the simulator, and use these configurations as anchors that refine the robot motion such that it ultimately has the desired impact on the environment. To bridge the remaining sim-to-real gap, we introduce a sim-to-real strategy that decouples robustness to noisy and incomplete perception from variations in hand-object interaction dynamics. Specifically, we learn to recalibrate robot configurations from noisy real-world point clouds via IL, and leverage residual RL to perform local finger-level adaptations to ensure for robust and effective interactions. Finally, a collision-aware motion planning module enables spatial generalization to novel object configurations. Across several everyday manipulation tasks, Video2Sim2Real improves simulated task success, safety, and trajectory coherence over numerous baselines, and achieves better sim-to-real transfer than existing techniques. These results demonstrate a promising path toward autonomous dexterous skill acquisition from human videos.

  • 17 authors
·
Jun 6

Logic Before Language: Pre-pretraining on Formal Derivations Fosters Skill Acquisition and Compressibility

Pre-pretraining language models (LMs) on symbolic data can accelerate and improve natural language acquisition. However, existing pre-pretraining tasks, such as Dyck and procedural algorithms, rely on narrow primitives that fail to capture the expressive capacity of natural language. Moreover, prior studies remain restricted to relatively small token budgets, offering limited insight into skill emergence and representational dynamics. To address these limitations, we propose logic pre-pretraining (Logic-PPT) as a principled initialization strategy, leveraging formal derivations to impart richer structural and linguistic biases. Formal derivations require abstract mechanisms that are central to natural language, simultaneously binding variables, connecting quantifiers and relational dependencies, and composing predicate-argument structures over long contexts. Scaling our evaluation to a 100B-token regime, logic pre-pretraining substantially accelerates skill acquisition in LMs, achieving 80\% accuracy on linguistic tasks with 36B fewer tokens than standard initialization, and outperforming alternative pre-pretraining baselines. Mechanistically, formal derivations induce persistent structural reorganization, distinctively characterized by a lower-rank, spectrally concentrated representation space. Crucially, we show that this internal geometry enables improved model compressibility via pruning, matching the dense baseline performance even at approx33\% sparsity.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 3

Hestia: Voxel-Face-Aware Hierarchical Next-Best-View Acquisition for Efficient 3D Reconstruction

Advances in 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis have enabled efficient and photorealistic rendering. However, images for reconstruction are still either largely manual or constrained by simple preplanned trajectories. To address this issue, recent works propose generalizable next-best-view planners that do not require online learning. Nevertheless, robustness and performance remain limited across various shapes. Hence, this study introduces Voxel-Face-Aware Hierarchical Next-Best-View Acquisition for Efficient 3D Reconstruction (Hestia), which addresses the shortcomings of the reinforcement learning-based generalizable approaches for five-degree-of-freedom viewpoint prediction. Hestia systematically improves the planners through four components: a more diverse dataset to promote robustness, a hierarchical structure to manage the high-dimensional continuous action search space, a close-greedy strategy to mitigate spurious correlations, and a face-aware design to avoid overlooking geometry. Experimental results show that Hestia achieves non-marginal improvements, with at least a 4% gain in coverage ratio, while reducing Chamfer Distance by 50% and maintaining real-time inference. In addition, Hestia outperforms prior methods by at least 12% in coverage ratio with a 5-image budget and remains robust to object placement variations. Finally, we demonstrate that Hestia, as a next-best-view planner, is feasible for the real-world application. Our project page is https://johnnylu305.github.io/hestia web.

  • 8 authors
·
May 14

Structured prompt interrogation and recursive extraction of semantics (SPIRES): A method for populating knowledge bases using zero-shot learning

Creating knowledge bases and ontologies is a time consuming task that relies on a manual curation. AI/NLP approaches can assist expert curators in populating these knowledge bases, but current approaches rely on extensive training data, and are not able to populate arbitrary complex nested knowledge schemas. Here we present Structured Prompt Interrogation and Recursive Extraction of Semantics (SPIRES), a Knowledge Extraction approach that relies on the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform zero-shot learning (ZSL) and general-purpose query answering from flexible prompts and return information conforming to a specified schema. Given a detailed, user-defined knowledge schema and an input text, SPIRES recursively performs prompt interrogation against GPT-3+ to obtain a set of responses matching the provided schema. SPIRES uses existing ontologies and vocabularies to provide identifiers for all matched elements. We present examples of use of SPIRES in different domains, including extraction of food recipes, multi-species cellular signaling pathways, disease treatments, multi-step drug mechanisms, and chemical to disease causation graphs. Current SPIRES accuracy is comparable to the mid-range of existing Relation Extraction (RE) methods, but has the advantage of easy customization, flexibility, and, crucially, the ability to perform new tasks in the absence of any training data. This method supports a general strategy of leveraging the language interpreting capabilities of LLMs to assemble knowledge bases, assisting manual knowledge curation and acquisition while supporting validation with publicly-available databases and ontologies external to the LLM. SPIRES is available as part of the open source OntoGPT package: https://github.com/ monarch-initiative/ontogpt.

  • 12 authors
·
Apr 5, 2023

SkillFlow: Scalable and Efficient Agent Skill Retrieval System

AI agents can extend their capabilities at inference time by loading reusable skills into context, yet equipping an agent with too many skills, particularly irrelevant ones, degrades performance. As community-driven skill repositories grow, agents need a way to selectively retrieve only the most relevant skills from a large library. We present SkillFlow, the first open, multi-stage retrieval system for agent skill discovery that frames skill acquisition as an information retrieval problem over a corpus of ~35K community-contributed SKILL.md definitions indexed from GitHub. The pipeline progressively narrows a large candidate set through four stages (dense retrieval, two rounds of cross-encoder reranking, and LLM-based selection), balancing recall and precision at each stage. We evaluate SkillFlow on two coding benchmarks: SkillsBench, a benchmark of 87 tasks and 229 matched skills; and Terminal-Bench, a benchmark that provides only 89 tasks, and no matched skills. On SkillsBench, SkillFlow-retrieved skills raise Pass@1 from 9.2% to 16.4% (+78.3%, p_{adj} = 3.64 times 10^{-2}), reaching 84.1% of the oracle ceiling, while on Terminal-Bench, agents readily use the retrieved skills (70.1% use rate) yet show no performance gain, revealing that retrieval alone is insufficient when the corpus lacks high-quality, executable skills for the target domain. SkillFlow demonstrates that framing skill acquisition as an information retrieval task is an effective strategy, and that the practical impact of skill-augmented agents hinges on corpus coverage and skill quality, particularly the density of runnable code and bundled artifacts. (GitHub: https://github.com/IBPA/skill-flow)

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 24

Deep End-to-end Adaptive k-Space Sampling, Reconstruction, and Registration for Dynamic MRI

Dynamic MRI enables a range of clinical applications, including cardiac function assessment, organ motion tracking, and radiotherapy guidance. However, fully sampling the dynamic k-space data is often infeasible due to time constraints and physiological motion such as respiratory and cardiac motion. This necessitates undersampling, which degrades the quality of reconstructed images. Poor image quality not only hinders visualization but also impairs the estimation of deformation fields, crucial for registering dynamic (moving) images to a static reference image. This registration enables tasks such as motion correction, treatment planning, and quantitative analysis in applications like cardiac imaging and MR-guided radiotherapy. To overcome the challenges posed by undersampling and motion, we introduce an end-to-end deep learning (DL) framework that integrates adaptive dynamic k-space sampling, reconstruction, and registration. Our approach begins with a DL-based adaptive sampling strategy, optimizing dynamic k-space acquisition to capture the most relevant data for each specific case. This is followed by a DL-based reconstruction module that produces images optimized for accurate deformation field estimation from the undersampled moving data. Finally, a registration module estimates the deformation fields aligning the reconstructed dynamic images with a static reference. The proposed framework is independent of specific reconstruction and registration modules allowing for plug-and-play integration of these components. The entire framework is jointly trained using a combination of supervised and unsupervised loss functions, enabling end-to-end optimization for improved performance across all components. Through controlled experiments and ablation studies, we validate each component, demonstrating that each choice contributes to robust motion estimation from undersampled dynamic data.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20, 2025

DRIFT: Difficulty Routing Self-DIstillation with Rhythm-Gated Exploration and Success BuFfer Training

Enabling large language models to achieve stable self-improvement without external expert supervision remains a central challenge in complex reasoning tasks. Existing self-distillation and reinforcement learning methods lack explicit mechanisms for tracking problem-level learning progress and adapting optimization strategies accordingly. Consequently, training may over-optimize easy problems, receive weak supervision from hard problems, and fail to sufficiently explore borderline cases. To resolve these issues, we propose DRIFT, an online self-evolution policy optimization framework for large language models. DRIFT regulates the model's self-improvement process through the joint use of Difficulty Routing and Rhythm Gating. The former identifies the model's learning state at the problem level and dynamically allocates self-distillation and reinforcement learning signals, while the latter refines policy updates at the token level, concentrating exploration on critical reasoning positions. By further incorporating a success buffer and a two-stage curriculum learning strategy, DRIFT preserves high-quality historical experience while progressively guiding the model from reliable behavior acquisition toward stable policy evolution. Evaluated across five benchmarks and three model scales, DRIFT surpasses the peak performance of both GRPO and SDPO across all evaluated metrics. On the average score over the five benchmarks, DRIFT achieves 79.5%, outperforming GRPO by 9.5% and SDPO by 7.5%, establishing a new state-of-the-art result. Notably, on ToolUse, DRIFT reaches an accuracy of 79.2%, improving over GRPO by 13.5% and SDPO by 10.7%, setting a new state-of-the-art and substantially outperforming all concurrent methods.

  • 16 authors
·
Jun 28

EvoDS: Self-Evolving Autonomous Data Science Agent with Skill Learning and Context Management

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) agents has enabled promising advances in automated data science. However, existing approaches remain fundamentally limited by their static action sets and lack of principled long-horizon context management, hindering their ability to accumulate reusable experience across tasks and operate reliably in multi-stage, iterative data science pipelines. To address these challenges, we introduce EvoDS, a self-evolving autonomous data science agent that learns to expand its skills and adaptively managing long-term context through agentic reinforcement learning. Specifically, EvoDS introduces two key strategies: (1) Autonomous Skill Acquisition (ASA) mechanism, which enables agents to synthesize, validate, and reuse executable skills; and (2) Adaptive Context Compression (ACC) strategy, which treats context management as a learned control problem rather than passive truncation. These strategies are orchestrated within a two-stage multi-agent training scheme, enabling EvoDS to autonomously improve over time. Theoretically, we prove that EvoDS's hierarchical design reduces tool-selection error, and its optimization objective aligns with an information bottleneck principle, ensuring efficient context use. Empirically, EvoDS outperforms state-of-the-art open-source data science agents by an average of 28.9% across four diverse benchmarks while eliminating out-of-token failures. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/EvoDS.

Deep Research Agents: A Systematic Examination And Roadmap

The rapid progress of Large Language Models (LLMs) has given rise to a new category of autonomous AI systems, referred to as Deep Research (DR) agents. These agents are designed to tackle complex, multi-turn informational research tasks by leveraging a combination of dynamic reasoning, adaptive long-horizon planning, multi-hop information retrieval, iterative tool use, and the generation of structured analytical reports. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of the foundational technologies and architectural components that constitute Deep Research agents. We begin by reviewing information acquisition strategies, contrasting API-based retrieval methods with browser-based exploration. We then examine modular tool-use frameworks, including code execution, multimodal input processing, and the integration of Model Context Protocols (MCPs) to support extensibility and ecosystem development. To systematize existing approaches, we propose a taxonomy that differentiates between static and dynamic workflows, and we classify agent architectures based on planning strategies and agent composition, including single-agent and multi-agent configurations. We also provide a critical evaluation of current benchmarks, highlighting key limitations such as restricted access to external knowledge, sequential execution inefficiencies, and misalignment between evaluation metrics and the practical objectives of DR agents. Finally, we outline open challenges and promising directions for future research. A curated and continuously updated repository of DR agent research is available at: {https://github.com/ai-agents-2030/awesome-deep-research-agent}.

  • 12 authors
·
Jun 22, 2025 1

Missing Old Logits in Asynchronous Agentic RL: Semantic Mismatch and Repair Methods for Off-Policy Correction

Asynchronous reinforcement learning improves rollout throughput for large language model agents by decoupling sample generation from policy optimization, but it also introduces a critical failure mode for PPO-style off-policy correction. In heterogeneous training systems, the total importance ratio should ideally be decomposed into two semantically distinct factors: a training--inference discrepancy term that aligns inference-side and training-side distributions at the same behavior-policy version, and a policy-staleness term that constrains the update from the historical policy to the current policy. We show that practical asynchronous pipelines with delayed updates and partial rollouts often lose the required historical training-side logits, or old logits. This missing-old-logit problem entangles discrepancy repair with staleness correction, breaks the intended semantics of decoupled correction, and makes clipping and masking thresholds interact undesirably. To address this issue, we study both exact and approximate correction routes. We propose three exact old-logit acquisition strategies: snapshot-based version tracking, a dedicated old-logit model, and synchronization via partial rollout interruption, and compare their system trade-offs. From the perspective of approximate correction, we focus on preserving the benefits of decoupled correction through a more appropriate approximate policy when exact old logits cannot be recovered at low cost, without incurring extra system overhead. Following this analysis, we adopt a revised PPO-EWMA method, which achieves significant gains in both training speed and optimization performance. Code at https://github.com/millioniron/ROLL.

jingdong1 jingdong
·
May 11 1

RedStone: Curating General, Code, Math, and QA Data for Large Language Models

Pre-training Large Language Models (LLMs) on high-quality, meticulously curated datasets is widely recognized as critical for enhancing their performance and generalization capabilities. This study explores the untapped potential of Common Crawl as a comprehensive and flexible resource for pre-training LLMs, addressing both general-purpose language understanding and specialized domain knowledge. We introduce RedStone, an innovative and scalable pipeline engineered to extract and process data from Common Crawl, facilitating the creation of extensive and varied pre-training datasets. Unlike traditional datasets, which often require expensive curation and domain-specific expertise, RedStone leverages the breadth of Common Crawl to deliver datasets tailored to a wide array of domains. In this work, we exemplify its capability by constructing pre-training datasets across multiple fields, including general language understanding, code, mathematics, and question-answering tasks. The flexibility of RedStone allows for easy adaptation to other specialized domains, significantly lowering the barrier to creating valuable domain-specific datasets. Our findings demonstrate that Common Crawl, when harnessed through effective pipelines like RedStone, can serve as a rich, renewable source of pre-training data, unlocking new avenues for domain adaptation and knowledge discovery in LLMs. This work also underscores the importance of innovative data acquisition strategies and highlights the role of web-scale data as a powerful resource in the continued evolution of LLMs. RedStone code and data samples will be publicly available at https://aka.ms/redstone.

  • 16 authors
·
Dec 4, 2024

Biology-in-the-loop: Amortized Adaptive Hit Discovery in CRISPR Screens

Many biological discovery problems require experiments to be selected sequentially under constrained budgets. CRISPR screening is a prominent example, as exhaustive perturbation testing is often infeasible and candidate perturbations must instead be prioritized over multiple experimental rounds. Despite the importance of this problem, existing benchmarks for adaptive hit discovery remain limited in scale and diversity. Here, we introduce AssayBench-Loop, a large-scale benchmark for adaptive hit discovery comprising 1,389 CRISPR screens across five phenotype categories. Beyond enabling systematic evaluation, its scale makes it possible to learn acquisition strategies across historical experiments. Building on this resource, we introduce AssayLoop, a sequential experimental design framework combining AssayFormer, a transformer-based amortized acquisition policy trained across historical screens to adapt from experimental feedback, with LLM-derived biological priors through an adaptive handoff. In this view, completed experiments become training data for learning how accumulated evidence should guide what to test next, while LLMs provide prior biological knowledge to seed the search. We further introduce AssayLLM, showing that the same principle can be extended directly to an LLM through task-specific post-training. On temporally held-out screens, AssayLoop achieves a 5.67-fold enrichment over random selection and recovers 27.7% of hits after assaying approximately 5% of the candidate library, outperforming existing adaptive-design methods and standalone LLMs, and AssayFormer alone. Performance improves with increasing historical training data and transfers to phenotype categories excluded from training. These results demonstrate the value of learning acquisition policies across historical experiments and combining them with broad biological priors for efficient adaptive hit discovery.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 9

RecAgent: A Novel Simulation Paradigm for Recommender Systems

Recommender system has deeply revolutionized people's daily life and production, bringing a large amount of business value. In the recommendation domain, simulation and real data-based studies are two typical research paradigms, with each having different advantages. Previously, real data-based studies occupy more important positions, since accurately simulating the user preference is quite difficult. Recently, large language models (LLM) have shown great potential to achieve human-like intelligence, which provides new opportunities to overcome the shortcomings of simulation-based studies and thus highlight their advantages, such as much more application scenarios and cheaper data acquisition strategies. To shed lights on this direction, in this paper, we introduce an LLM-based recommender simulator called RecAgent. Our simulator is composed of two modules: (1) the user module and (2) the recommender module. The user module can browse the recommendation website, communicate with other users and broadcast messages on the social media. The recommender module is designed to provide search or recommendation lists to the users, and one can design different models to implement the recommender. All the users take actions based on LLMs, and can freely evolve like in the real world. We present several case studies to demonstrate that the users in our simulator can indeed behave in a reasonable manner as expected. Our project has been released at https://github.com/RUC-GSAI/YuLan-Rec.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 4, 2023

BurstDeflicker: A Benchmark Dataset for Flicker Removal in Dynamic Scenes

Flicker artifacts in short-exposure images are caused by the interplay between the row-wise exposure mechanism of rolling shutter cameras and the temporal intensity variations of alternating current (AC)-powered lighting. These artifacts typically appear as uneven brightness distribution across the image, forming noticeable dark bands. Beyond compromising image quality, this structured noise also affects high-level tasks, such as object detection and tracking, where reliable lighting is crucial. Despite the prevalence of flicker, the lack of a large-scale, realistic dataset has been a significant barrier to advancing research in flicker removal. To address this issue, we present BurstDeflicker, a scalable benchmark constructed using three complementary data acquisition strategies. First, we develop a Retinex-based synthesis pipeline that redefines the goal of flicker removal and enables controllable manipulation of key flicker-related attributes (e.g., intensity, area, and frequency), thereby facilitating the generation of diverse flicker patterns. Second, we capture 4,000 real-world flicker images from different scenes, which help the model better understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of real flicker artifacts and generalize more effectively to wild scenarios. Finally, due to the non-repeatable nature of dynamic scenes, we propose a green-screen method to incorporate motion into image pairs while preserving real flicker degradation. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our dataset and its potential to advance research in flicker removal.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025

Benefits of Resource Strategy for Sustainable Materials Research and Development

Material and product life cycles are based on complex value chains of technology-specific elements. Resource strategy aspects of essential and strategic raw materials have a direct impact on applications of new functionalized materials or the development of novel products. Thus, an urgent challenge of modern materials science is to obtain information about the supply risk and environmental aspects of resource utilization, especially at an early stage of basic research. Combining the fields of materials science, industrial engineering and resource strategy enables a multidisciplinary research approach to identify specific risks within the value chain, aggregated as the so-called resource criticality. Here, we demonstrate a step-by-step criticality assessment in the sector of basic materials research for multifunctional hexagonal manganite YMnO3, which can be a candidate for future electronic systems. Raw material restrictions can be quantitatively identified, even at such an early stage of materials research, from eleven long-term indicators including our new developed Sector Competition Index. This approach for resource strategy for modern material science integrates two objective targets: reduced supply risk and enhanced environmental sustainability of new functionalized materials, showing drawbacks but also benefits towards a sustainable materials research and development.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 6, 2017

aiSTROM -- A roadmap for developing a successful AI strategy

A total of 34% of AI research and development projects fails or are abandoned, according to a recent survey by Rackspace Technology of 1,870 companies. We propose a new strategic framework, aiSTROM, that empowers managers to create a successful AI strategy based on a thorough literature review. This provides a unique and integrated approach that guides managers and lead developers through the various challenges in the implementation process. In the aiSTROM framework, we start by identifying the top n potential projects (typically 3-5). For each of those, seven areas of focus are thoroughly analysed. These areas include creating a data strategy that takes into account unique cross-departmental machine learning data requirements, security, and legal requirements. aiSTROM then guides managers to think about how to put together an interdisciplinary artificial intelligence (AI) implementation team given the scarcity of AI talent. Once an AI team strategy has been established, it needs to be positioned within the organization, either cross-departmental or as a separate division. Other considerations include AI as a service (AIaas), or outsourcing development. Looking at new technologies, we have to consider challenges such as bias, legality of black-box-models, and keeping humans in the loop. Next, like any project, we need value-based key performance indicators (KPIs) to track and validate the progress. Depending on the company's risk-strategy, a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) can help further classify the shortlisted projects. Finally, we should make sure that our strategy includes continuous education of employees to enable a culture of adoption. This unique and comprehensive framework offers a valuable, literature supported, tool for managers and lead developers.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 25, 2021

Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction

Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0 < ROI < 1), or unprofitable (ROI <= 0) returns within one year. We propose MineROI-Net, an open source Transformer-based architecture designed to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in mining profitability. Evaluated on data from 20 ASIC miners released between 2015 and 2024 across diverse market regimes, MineROI-Net outperforms LSTM-based and TSLANet baselines, achieving 83.7% accuracy and 83.1% macro F1-score. The model demonstrates strong economic relevance, achieving 93.6% precision in detecting unprofitable periods and 98.5% precision for profitable ones, while avoiding misclassification of profitable scenarios as unprofitable and vice versa. These results indicate that MineROI-Net offers a practical, data-driven tool for timing mining hardware acquisitions, potentially reducing financial risk in capital-intensive mining operations. The model is available through: https://github.com/AMAAI-Lab/MineROI-Net.

From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 13

Ensembling Portfolio Strategies for Long-Term Investments: A Distribution-Free Preference Framework for Decision-Making and Algorithms

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 5, 2024

Choosing LLMs for Strategic Agent Interactions

Game-theoretic benchmarks claim that large language model (LLM) strategic decision-making varies across game types, interaction structures, and capability dimensions. However, they only evaluate strategic performance across individual fixed models. In parallel, contemporary LLM routers pick models under quality-cost trade-offs, but with no notion of a strategic structure. They do not account for an opponent that might be unknown, and that can adapt over time and shift the feedback signal. To address this, we extend the game-theoretic evaluations and define strategic selection as the meta game layered on top of the base game. In each round, a strategic selector fields an LLM from a portfolio of models to navigate a game payoff matrix that is latent and learned online. We find that the evaluation signal is game-specific, and that extracting a reliable signal requires a much higher number of seed runs N compared to traditional benchmarking setups. Evaluating across 5 games and 10 LLMs, we show a model's strategic competence varies significantly depending on the game setup and the opponent faced. Building on this, we implement a suite of selector methods and find that approaches that rely on query embeddings or LLM self-reflection do not consistently capture the underlying strategic signal. A lightweight multi-armed bandit algorithm performs more reliably across games, though it still falls short of the best fixed model. Finally, we show that simple non-stationary and adversarial bandit variants fail to outperform a stationary bandit baseline, pointing to a gap in how current methods handle a shifting opponent in strategic settings.

CORE-AIx CORE-AIx
·
Oct 12 2

Discovering and Exploiting Sparse Rewards in a Learned Behavior Space

Learning optimal policies in sparse rewards settings is difficult as the learning agent has little to no feedback on the quality of its actions. In these situations, a good strategy is to focus on exploration, hopefully leading to the discovery of a reward signal to improve on. A learning algorithm capable of dealing with this kind of settings has to be able to (1) explore possible agent behaviors and (2) exploit any possible discovered reward. Efficient exploration algorithms have been proposed that require to define a behavior space, that associates to an agent its resulting behavior in a space that is known to be worth exploring. The need to define this space is a limitation of these algorithms. In this work, we introduce STAX, an algorithm designed to learn a behavior space on-the-fly and to explore it while efficiently optimizing any reward discovered. It does so by separating the exploration and learning of the behavior space from the exploitation of the reward through an alternating two-steps process. In the first step, STAX builds a repertoire of diverse policies while learning a low-dimensional representation of the high-dimensional observations generated during the policies evaluation. In the exploitation step, emitters are used to optimize the performance of the discovered rewarding solutions. Experiments conducted on three different sparse reward environments show that STAX performs comparably to existing baselines while requiring much less prior information about the task as it autonomously builds the behavior space.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 2, 2021

Mastermind: Strategy-grounded Learning for Repository-Scale Vulnerability Reproduction

Repository-level vulnerability reproduction is a demanding software engineering (SE) task: an agent must inspect a codebase, infer the input grammar that reaches a vulnerable path, construct a proof-of-conceptv(PoC), and verify that the crash disappears on the patched build. Recent LLM agents can often execute these steps when the approach is correct, yet they still fail by choosing the wrong strategy. This paper argues that strategy, rather than the full action trajectory, is the right learning unit for such SE agents: it is compact enough to optimize, concrete enough to guide execution, and stable enough to store and reuse across attempts. We present Mastermind, a dual-loop framework that separates transferable strategy learning from task-specific experience. A trainable planner learns reusable vulnerability-reproduction strategies through SFT and milestone-based GRPO, while an experience loop maintains task-local strategy records that guide subsequent attempts. The planner is trained independently of the executor, allowing strategy learning to improve multiple frozen executors without modifying their action-generation capability. We evaluate Mastermind on CyberGym using 260 training tasks and 200 held-out evaluation tasks. With GPT-5.5 as the frozen executor, Mastermind achieves an 84.5% pass rate, outperforming open-book PoC context (60.0%), Best-of-8 sampling (63.0%), and iterative improvement (77.0%). The same planner also improves GPT-5.4 mini and GLM~5.1 from 45.0% and 58.5% to 60.0% and 71.0%. These results demonstrate that learning high-level strategies is an effective and transferable mechanism for improving repository-scale SE agents.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 1 2

Influence Guided Sampling for Domain Adaptation of Text Retrievers

General-purpose open-domain dense retrieval systems are usually trained with a large, eclectic mix of corpora and search tasks. How should these diverse corpora and tasks be sampled for training? Conventional approaches sample them uniformly, proportional to their instance population sizes, or depend on human-level expert supervision. It is well known that the training data sampling strategy can greatly impact model performance. However, how to find the optimal strategy has not been adequately studied in the context of embedding models. We propose Inf-DDS, a novel reinforcement learning driven sampling framework that adaptively reweighs training datasets guided by influence-based reward signals and is much more lightweight with respect to GPU consumption. Our technique iteratively refines the sampling policy, prioritizing datasets that maximize model performance on a target development set. We evaluate the efficacy of our sampling strategy on a wide range of text retrieval tasks, demonstrating strong improvements in retrieval performance and better adaptation compared to existing gradient-based sampling methods, while also being 1.5x to 4x cheaper in GPU compute. Our sampling strategy achieves a 5.03 absolute NDCG@10 improvement while training a multilingual bge-m3 model and an absolute NDCG@10 improvement of 0.94 while training all-MiniLM-L6-v2, even when starting from expert-assigned weights on a large pool of training datasets.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 29 1

A Provably Efficient Sample Collection Strategy for Reinforcement Learning

One of the challenges in online reinforcement learning (RL) is that the agent needs to trade off the exploration of the environment and the exploitation of the samples to optimize its behavior. Whether we optimize for regret, sample complexity, state-space coverage or model estimation, we need to strike a different exploration-exploitation trade-off. In this paper, we propose to tackle the exploration-exploitation problem following a decoupled approach composed of: 1) An "objective-specific" algorithm that (adaptively) prescribes how many samples to collect at which states, as if it has access to a generative model (i.e., a simulator of the environment); 2) An "objective-agnostic" sample collection exploration strategy responsible for generating the prescribed samples as fast as possible. Building on recent methods for exploration in the stochastic shortest path problem, we first provide an algorithm that, given as input the number of samples b(s,a) needed in each state-action pair, requires O(B D + D^{3/2} S^2 A) time steps to collect the B=sum_{s,a} b(s,a) desired samples, in any unknown communicating MDP with S states, A actions and diameter D. Then we show how this general-purpose exploration algorithm can be paired with "objective-specific" strategies that prescribe the sample requirements to tackle a variety of settings -- e.g., model estimation, sparse reward discovery, goal-free cost-free exploration in communicating MDPs -- for which we obtain improved or novel sample complexity guarantees.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 13, 2020

What LLM Trading Agents Actually Do in Production: A Six-Month, Population-Scale Record from Two Fleets

We present a continuous, population-scale measurement record of autonomous language-model trading agents operating in production across two systems with one design lineage: DX Terminal Pro (3,505 user-funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets for 21 days, February to March 2026) and the DXAP live alpha fleet (500 to 599 user-created agents all-history, 91 to 117 concurrently active, trading Hyperliquid perpetuals, June to August 2026). The record spans roughly six months, 7.5M single-model invocations with about 300K onchain actions, and a further 231,638 multi-tool turns producing 14,596 fills. Four findings carry the paper. First, the operating layer determines behavior more than anything written in strategy text: a risk slider explains leverage (+0.425 per level), agent fixed effects absorb 60% of variance, and a leaderboard render boundary causally routes selection (regression discontinuity 1.75x at the top-3 cut). Second, sizing is volatility-blind: median leverage is 5.0x in every volatility sextile, and one posture-slider cell (11% of the book) holds 62% of liquidations. Third, agents capture almost none of the upside they reach: 43.2% of positions saw at least +300 bps of favorable excursion within 24h, yet 49.3% of those closed with a negative trade return; a mechanical bracket recovers +39.0 bps per position. Fourth, neither fleet shows a directional edge. The DXAP fleet is not profitable and trails a matched Hyperliquid retail benchmark (41% vs. 50% roundtrip win rate). A paired-replay league of frontier models on 416 captured production scenarios finds decision quality statistically indistinguishable at this horizon, while choice stability differs sharply across model families. Every headline survives day-clustered inference, permutation nulls, and a common-fee restatement; the paper closes with a 17-rule methodology canon bought with our own retractions.

Strategy Executability in Mathematical Reasoning: Leveraging Human-Model Differences for Effective Guidance

Example-based guidance is widely used to improve mathematical reasoning at inference time, yet its effectiveness is highly unstable across problems and models-even when the guidance is correct and problem-relevant. We show that this instability arises from a previously underexplored gap between strategy usage-whether a reasoning strategy appears in successful solutions-and strategy executability-whether the strategy remains effective when instantiated as guidance for a target model. Through a controlled analysis of paired human-written and model-generated solutions, we identify a systematic dissociation between usage and executability: human- and model-derived strategies differ in structured, domain-dependent ways, leading to complementary strengths and consistent source-dependent reversals under guidance. Building on this diagnosis, we propose Selective Strategy Retrieval (SSR), a test-time framework that explicitly models executability by selectively retrieving and combining strategies using empirical, multi-route, source-aware signals. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, SSR yields reliable and consistent improvements over direct solving, in-context learning, and single-source guidance, improving accuracy by up to +13 points on AIME25 and +5 points on Apex for compact reasoning models. Code and benchmark are publicly available at: https://github.com/lwd17/strategy-execute-pipeline.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 25

Strategy Accumulation and Guided Execution for Automated LLM Fine-Tuning

Producing task-specific large language models requires discovering effective training strategies through experimentation. Automated fine-tuning systems have made this experimentation feasible with far less manual effort. However, these systems are stateless: each search discards its discovered strategies, dataset insights, and hyperparameter findings once it ends. Every new task must then repeat this costly search from a cold start. To address this, we propose Strategy Accumulation and Guided Execution (SAGE), a two-stage framework that makes automated fine-tuning search cumulative. In the first stage, a multi-agent pipeline performs Monte Carlo Tree Search-based exploration. A parallel Distillation Agent extracts task-specific exploration records and confidence-scored cross-task insights, which together constitute a structured experience repository. In the second stage, SAGE retrieves relevant experience from this repository and selects what applies to guide training on the new task. We evaluate SAGE on nine unseen tasks spanning both single- and cross-category settings. In single-round execution, SAGE's accumulated experience raises the average relative improvement over baseline from 3.2% to 15.6%, a 12.4-percentage-point gain over the same pipeline without it. These results show that persistent strategy experience provides effective guidance for automated fine-tuning on unseen tasks.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 5

Experience-Guided Adaptation of Inference-Time Reasoning Strategies

Enabling agentic AI systems to adapt their problem-solving approaches based on post-training interactions remains a fundamental challenge. While systems that update and maintain a memory at inference time have been proposed, existing designs only steer the system by modifying textual input to a language model or agent, which means that they cannot change sampling parameters, remove tools, modify system prompts, or switch between agentic and workflow paradigms. On the other hand, systems that adapt more flexibly require offline optimization and remain static once deployed. We present Experience-Guided Reasoner (EGuR), which generates tailored strategies -- complete computational procedures involving LLM calls, tools, sampling parameters, and control logic -- dynamically at inference time based on accumulated experience. We achieve this using an LLM-based meta-strategy -- a strategy that outputs strategies -- enabling adaptation of all strategy components (prompts, sampling parameters, tool configurations, and control logic). EGuR operates through two components: a Guide generates multiple candidate strategies conditioned on the current problem and structured memory of past experiences, while a Consolidator integrates execution feedback to improve future strategy generation. This produces complete, ready-to-run strategies optimized for each problem, which can be cached, retrieved, and executed as needed without wasting resources. Across five challenging benchmarks (AIME 2025, 3-SAT, and three Big Bench Extra Hard tasks), EGuR achieves up to 14% accuracy improvements over the strongest baselines while reducing computational costs by up to 111x, with both metrics improving as the system gains experience.

AWS Amazon Web Services
·
Nov 14, 2025 2

Recursive Organization Improvement: A Modeling Specification for Human--Agent Organizations

Stronger AI agents do not automatically produce better organizations: teams must also learn which work arrangements to retain and when to reconsider them. We propose a modeling specification for recursive organization improvement and evaluate it through an executable checker, a public-record mapping, and controlled simulation. The specification connects actor-visible histories, organizational memory, decision rights, and evidence-carrying change contracts. The mechanism study crosses six decision rules, three memory conditions, and three task environments under fixed resource ceilings. In a stationary environment, cumulative evidence raises balanced evaluation's normalized net value per task from 0.45224 to 0.48007. Repeated reassessment's disadvantage relative to this comparator falls from 0.01702 with reset evidence to 0.00007 with cumulative evidence. A reversal of the best workflow reveals the opposite cost: indefinite retention delays adaptation, while a finite window restores eventual performance at a transition cost. In exploratory controls, matching trial acquisition and label reuse reduces the apparent reassessment gain from 0.00607 to 0.00191. Program replacement adds no stable benefit across the tested reversal times. The study identifies evidence acquisition, reuse, and timely updating as mechanisms that must be separated from evaluator replacement when assessing organizational improvement.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 28

Filesystem-Based Memory for LLM Agents: Organization, Evolution, and Sustainability

Deployed LLM agents increasingly keep their long-term memory as a filesystem: a directory tree of markdown files that the agent itself reads, writes, and reorganizes through generic file tools. Yet research has largely passed over this medium: prior systems design bespoke memory representations and study retrieval over them, leaving the default's two working assumptions untested: that an agent can keep a growing store organized as memories accumulate, conflict, and go stale, and that this organization pays. We present the first systematic exploration of filesystem-based memory for LLM agents. We formalize the setting as three roles around one memory filesystem: a management agent integrates and organizes incoming content, a search agent answers queries with cited sources, and an execution agent supplies task trajectories that are distilled into skills, unifying declarative memory and skills in a single store. Across long-conversation benchmarks and embodied tasks, we vary memory shape (agent-organized hierarchy, verbatim dump, chunk retrieval), stream scale, tool harness (sandboxed shell, memory-tool-style functions, varied search tooling), and the strengths of the management and search agents, tracking answer quality, cost, and store health as memory grows. What organization reliably buys is search economy: organized stores roughly halve retrieval cost where material is large. Today's agents, however, fall short of the default's promise: in our growth study, organization erodes for all but the strongest management agent, and no agent we measure converts organization itself into better answers. And the model is not the only lever over a store's shape: changing the tool set alone reshapes the store as strongly as swapping the model. The study turns the filesystem default from an assumption into a design space for agent memory.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 28 2

Exploitation Is All You Need... for Exploration

Ensuring sufficient exploration is a central challenge when training meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) agents to solve novel environments. Conventional solutions to the exploration-exploitation dilemma inject explicit incentives such as randomization, uncertainty bonuses, or intrinsic rewards to encourage exploration. In this work, we hypothesize that an agent trained solely to maximize a greedy (exploitation-only) objective can nonetheless exhibit emergent exploratory behavior, provided three conditions are met: (1) Recurring Environmental Structure, where the environment features repeatable regularities that allow past experience to inform future choices; (2) Agent Memory, enabling the agent to retain and utilize historical interaction data; and (3) Long-Horizon Credit Assignment, where learning propagates returns over a time frame sufficient for the delayed benefits of exploration to inform current decisions. Through experiments in stochastic multi-armed bandits and temporally extended gridworlds, we observe that, when both structure and memory are present, a policy trained on a strictly greedy objective exhibits information-seeking exploratory behavior. We further demonstrate, through controlled ablations, that emergent exploration vanishes if either environmental structure or agent memory is absent (Conditions 1 & 2). Surprisingly, removing long-horizon credit assignment (Condition 3) does not always prevent emergent exploration-a result we attribute to the pseudo-Thompson Sampling effect. These findings suggest that, under the right prerequisites, exploration and exploitation need not be treated as orthogonal objectives but can emerge from a unified reward-maximization process.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 2, 2025 2

Enhancing Multilingual Information Retrieval in Mixed Human Resources Environments: A RAG Model Implementation for Multicultural Enterprise

The advent of Large Language Models has revolutionized information retrieval, ushering in a new era of expansive knowledge accessibility. While these models excel in providing open-world knowledge, effectively extracting answers in diverse linguistic environments with varying levels of literacy remains a formidable challenge. Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a promising solution, bridging the gap between information availability and multilingual comprehension. However, deploying RAG models in real-world scenarios demands careful consideration of various factors. This paper addresses the critical challenges associated with implementing RAG models in multicultural environments. We delve into essential considerations, including data feeding strategies, timely updates, mitigation of hallucinations, prevention of erroneous responses, and optimization of delivery speed. Our work involves the integration of a diverse array of tools, meticulously combined to facilitate the seamless adoption of RAG models across languages and literacy levels within a multicultural organizational context. Through strategic tweaks in our approaches, we achieve not only effectiveness but also efficiency, ensuring the accelerated and accurate delivery of information in a manner that is tailored to the unique requirements of multilingual and multicultural settings.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 2, 2024

SMART: Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks

Tasks requiring deductive reasoning, especially those involving multiple steps, often demand adaptive strategies such as intermediate generation of rationales or programs, as no single approach is universally optimal. While Language Models (LMs) can enhance their outputs through iterative self-refinement and strategy adjustments, they frequently fail to apply the most effective strategy in their first attempt. This inefficiency raises the question: Can LMs learn to select the optimal strategy in the first attempt, without a need for refinement? To address this challenge, we introduce SMART (Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks), a novel framework that enables LMs to autonomously learn and select the most effective strategies for various reasoning tasks. We model the strategy selection process as a Markov Decision Process and leverage reinforcement learning-driven continuous self-improvement to allow the model to find the suitable strategy to solve a given task. Unlike traditional self-refinement methods that rely on multiple inference passes or external feedback, SMART allows an LM to internalize the outcomes of its own reasoning processes and adjust its strategy accordingly, aiming for correct solutions on the first attempt. Our experiments across various reasoning datasets and with different model architectures demonstrate that SMART significantly enhances the ability of models to choose optimal strategies without external guidance (+15 points on the GSM8K dataset). By achieving higher accuracy with a single inference pass, SMART not only improves performance but also reduces computational costs for refinement-based strategies, paving the way for more efficient and intelligent reasoning in LMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 21, 2024

What Survives Into Context: A Diagnostic for Budget-Constrained Multi-Hop RAG and When Submodular Evidence Packing Improves It

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) under a fixed reader-context budget forces a selection problem: of the evidence retrieved, only a fraction can be shown to the reader. We argue that document recall -- the standard retrieval metric -- is the wrong quantity to optimize in this regime, and we make two contributions. First, as a general contribution, we introduce answer-in-context, a diagnostic that measures whether a gold answer survives as a contiguous span in the packed reader context (not the retrieved set). It predicts answer F1 better than recall (r=0.39-0.55 vs. about 0.31), separates answer quality roughly five-fold (0.60 vs. 0.12 on HotpotQA), and carries information beyond retrieval: it adds Delta R squared=0.17 over recall and shows a 4.6x EM gap even among questions where all gold was retrieved. We also confirm it interventionally: on 2WikiMultiHopQA a packing change that raises coverage but not answer-in-context yields no accuracy gain. Second, as a conditional contribution, we cast reader-context construction as budgeted monotone submodular maximization and build a packer that jointly optimizes relevance, query coverage, representativeness, and diversity. On HotpotQA with a 160-token budget and a 3B reader it beats a strong focused heuristic, MMR, and naive packing -- by up to +5.1 F1 at equal-or-lower token cost, across three seeds. Crucially, we map the scope of this win honestly: it requires the conjunction of (i) multi-hop complementary structure, (ii) retrieval that surfaces the evidence, (iii) a binding but not extreme budget, and (iv) a reader weak enough that evidence density, not reading capacity, is the bottleneck. A quantization-controlled reader-scale ladder (3B to 7B to 14B) shows the edge over the heuristic is absorbed by 7B and significantly reverses by 14B, while the diagnostic explains every boundary with a single variable.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 30

Hallucinations or Attention Misdirection? The Path to Strategic Value Extraction in Business Using Large Language Models

Large Language Models with transformer architecture have revolutionized the domain of text generation, setting unprecedented benchmarks. Despite their impressive capabilities, LLMs have been criticized for generating outcomes that deviate from factual accuracy or display logical inconsistencies, phenomena commonly referred to as hallucinations. This term, however, has often been misapplied to any results deviating from the instructor's expectations, which this paper defines as attention misdirection rather than true hallucinations. Understanding the distinction between hallucinations and attention misdirection becomes increasingly relevant in business contexts, where the ramifications of such errors can significantly impact the value extraction from these inherently pre-trained models. This paper highlights the best practices of the PGI, Persona, Grouping, and Intelligence, method, a strategic framework that achieved a remarkable error rate of only 3,15 percent across 4,000 responses generated by GPT in response to a real business challenge. It emphasizes that by equipping experimentation with knowledge, businesses can unlock opportunities for innovation through the use of these natively pre-trained models. This reinforces the notion that strategic application grounded in a skilled team can maximize the benefits of emergent technologies such as the LLMs.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024

Scaling Small Agents Through Strategy Auctions

Small language models are increasingly viewed as a promising, cost-effective approach to agentic AI, with proponents claiming they are sufficiently capable for agentic workflows. However, while smaller agents can closely match larger ones on simple tasks, it remains unclear how their performance scales with task complexity, when large models become necessary, and how to better leverage small agents for long-horizon workloads. In this work, we empirically show that small agents' performance fails to scale with task complexity on deep search and coding tasks, and we introduce Strategy Auctions for Workload Efficiency (SALE), an agent framework inspired by freelancer marketplaces. In SALE, agents bid with short strategic plans, which are scored by a systematic cost-value mechanism and refined via a shared auction memory, enabling per-task routing and continual self-improvement without training a separate router or running all models to completion. Across deep search and coding tasks of varying complexity, SALE reduces reliance on the largest agent by 53%, lowers overall cost by 35%, and consistently improves upon the largest agent's pass@1 with only a negligible overhead beyond executing the final trace. In contrast, established routers that rely on task descriptions either underperform the largest agent or fail to reduce cost -- often both -- underscoring their poor fit for agentic workflows. These results suggest that while small agents may be insufficient for complex workloads, they can be effectively "scaled up" through coordinated task allocation and test-time self-improvement. More broadly, they motivate a systems-level view of agentic AI in which performance gains come less from ever-larger individual models and more from market-inspired coordination mechanisms that organize heterogeneous agents into efficient, adaptive ecosystems.

ToMPO: Training LLM Strategic Decision Making from a Multi-Agent Perspective

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been used to make decisions in complex scenarios, where they need models to think deeply, reason logically, and decide wisely. Many existing studies focus solely on multi-round conversations in social tasks or simulated environments, neglecting the various types of decisions and their interdependence. Current reinforcement learning methods struggle to consider the strategies of others during training. To address these issues, we first define a strategic decision-making problem that includes two types of decisions and their temporal dependencies. Furthermore, we propose **T**heory **o**f **M**ind **P**olicy **O**ptimization **(ToMPO)** algorithm to optimize the perception of other individual strategies and the game situation trends. Compared to the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm, ToMPO enhances the LLM's strategic decision-making mainly by: 1) generating rollouts based on reasoning the strategies of other individuals, 2) estimating advantages at both the graph-level and sample-level, and 3) balancing global and partial rewards. The ToMPO algorithm outperforms the GRPO method by 35% in terms of model output compliance and cooperative outcomes. Additionally, when compared to models with parameter sizes 100 times larger, it shows an 18% improvement. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the ToMPO algorithm in enhancing the model's strategic decision-making capabilities.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 24, 2025

MiniCorp: The Last Mile of the AI Agent Firm

The last mile toward enterprise AGI is a company that runs itself. Training and adapting such agents require longitudinal enterprise data, which remain scarce, costly to acquire, and often restricted by privacy constraints. Historical archives are also frequently incomplete and record only what actually happened. They cannot show the outcomes of alternative decisions. We introduce MiniCorp, an office simulator for studying how agents can collectively run a company while generating enterprise data at scale. Using an e-commerce company as a demonstration, MiniCorp connects two interacting worlds. The external world models customers, dynamic competitors, and market mechanisms. The internal world consists of agents that observe events, discuss their options, and make strategic decisions. These decisions have lasting effects on the market, and the resulting feedback informs the firm's later decisions. As the firm and market interact, MiniCorp continuously records the agents' communications and decisions. These records preserve the information available at the time and the business results that followed. Checkpointing allows the same situation to be replayed under different decisions, providing comparisons unavailable in static archives. We evaluate end-to-end fidelity against patterns reported in empirical studies of real markets. These evaluations provide agents with realistic market feedback and reduce the risk that they learn to exploit flaws in the simulator. Our experiments show agents coordinating across roles and adapting their decisions to market feedback. With explicit long-term strategic guidance, they also sustain advertising exploration despite weak early returns. MiniCorp thus provides an environment for studying AI-run companies and a scalable source of longitudinal and counterfactual enterprise data for agent training and evaluation.

microsoft Microsoft
·
Oct 4 2

Let it Calm: Exploratory Annealed Decoding for Verifiable Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet its success hinges on effective exploration. An ideal exploration strategy must navigate two fundamental challenges: it must preserve sample quality while also ensuring training stability. While standard fixed-temperature sampling is simple, it struggles to balance these competing demands, as high temperatures degrade sample quality and low temperatures limit discovery. In this work, we propose a simpler and more effective strategy, Exploratory Annealed Decoding (EAD), grounded in the insight that exploration is most impactful on early tokens which define a sequence's semantic direction. EAD implements an intuitive **explore-at-the-beginning, exploit-at-the-end** strategy by annealing the sampling temperature from high to low during generation. This dynamic schedule encourages meaningful, high-level diversity at the start, then gradually lowers the temperature to preserve sample quality and keep the sampling distribution close to the target policy, which is essential for stable training. We demonstrate that EAD is a lightweight, plug-and-play method that significantly improves sample efficiency, consistently outperforming fixed-temperature sampling across various RLVR algorithms and model sizes. Our work suggests that aligning exploration with the natural dynamics of sequential generation offers a robust path to improving LLM reasoning.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 6, 2025 3

Cabrita: closing the gap for foreign languages

The strategy of training the model from scratch in a specific language or domain serves two essential purposes: i) enhancing performance in the particular linguistic or domain context, and ii) ensuring effective tokenization. The main limitation inherent to this approach lies in the associated cost, which can reach six to seven-digit dollar values, depending on the model size and the number of parameters involved. The main solution to overcome the cost challenge is to rely on available pre-trained models, which, despite recent advancements such as the LLaMA and LLaMA-2 models, still demonstrate inefficiency for certain specific domain problems or prove ineffective in scenarios involving conversational memory resources, given the large number of tokens required to represent text. To overcome this issue, we present a methodology named Cabrita, which, as our research demonstrates, successfully addresses the performance and efficient tokenization problem, all at an affordable cost. We believe that this methodology can be applied to any transformer-like architecture model. To validate the study, we conducted continuous pre-training exclusively using Portuguese text on a 3-billion-parameter model known as OpenLLaMA, resulting in a model named openCabrita 3B. The openCabrita 3B also features a new tokenizer that results in a significant reduction in the number of tokens required to represent the text. In our assessment, for few-shot learning tasks, we achieved similar results with this 3B model compared to a traditional continuous pre-training approach as well as to 7B models English pre-trained models.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 22, 2023

MAGE: Meta-Reinforcement Learning for Language Agents toward Strategic Exploration and Exploitation

Large Language Model (LLM) agents have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in learned tasks, yet they often struggle to adapt to non-stationary environments with feedback. While In-Context Learning and external memory offer some flexibility, they fail to internalize the adaptive ability required for long-term improvement. Meta-Reinforcement Learning (meta-RL) provides an alternative by embedding the learning process directly within the model. However, existing meta-RL approaches for LLMs focus primarily on exploration in single-agent settings, neglecting the strategic exploitation necessary for multi-agent environments. We propose MAGE, a meta-RL framework that empowers LLM agents for strategic exploration and exploitation. MAGE utilizes a multi-episode training regime where interaction histories and reflections are integrated into the context window. By using the final episode reward as the objective, MAGE incentivizes the agent to refine its strategy based on past experiences. We further combine population-based training with an agent-specific advantage normalization technique to enrich agent diversity and ensure stable learning. Experiment results show that MAGE outperforms existing baselines in both exploration and exploitation tasks. Furthermore, MAGE exhibits strong generalization to unseen opponents, suggesting it has internalized the ability for strategic exploration and exploitation. Code is available at https://github.com/Lu-Yang666/MAGE.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 3

Introduction to Multi-Armed Bandits

Multi-armed bandits a simple but very powerful framework for algorithms that make decisions over time under uncertainty. An enormous body of work has accumulated over the years, covered in several books and surveys. This book provides a more introductory, textbook-like treatment of the subject. Each chapter tackles a particular line of work, providing a self-contained, teachable technical introduction and a brief review of the further developments; many of the chapters conclude with exercises. The book is structured as follows. The first four chapters are on IID rewards, from the basic model to impossibility results to Bayesian priors to Lipschitz rewards. The next three chapters cover adversarial rewards, from the full-feedback version to adversarial bandits to extensions with linear rewards and combinatorially structured actions. Chapter 8 is on contextual bandits, a middle ground between IID and adversarial bandits in which the change in reward distributions is completely explained by observable contexts. The last three chapters cover connections to economics, from learning in repeated games to bandits with supply/budget constraints to exploration in the presence of incentives. The appendix provides sufficient background on concentration and KL-divergence. The chapters on "bandits with similarity information", "bandits with knapsacks" and "bandits and agents" can also be consumed as standalone surveys on the respective topics.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 15, 2019

Improving Language Model Negotiation with Self-Play and In-Context Learning from AI Feedback

We study whether multiple large language models (LLMs) can autonomously improve each other in a negotiation game by playing, reflecting, and criticizing. We are interested in this question because if LLMs were able to improve each other, it would imply the possibility of creating strong AI agents with minimal human intervention. We ask two LLMs to negotiate with each other, playing the roles of a buyer and a seller, respectively. They aim to reach a deal with the buyer targeting a lower price and the seller a higher one. A third language model, playing the critic, provides feedback to a player to improve the player's negotiation strategies. We let the two agents play multiple rounds, using previous negotiation history and AI feedback as in-context demonstrations to improve the model's negotiation strategy iteratively. We use different LLMs (GPT and Claude) for different roles and use the deal price as the evaluation metric. Our experiments reveal multiple intriguing findings: (1) Only a subset of the language models we consider can self-play and improve the deal price from AI feedback, weaker models either do not understand the game's rules or cannot incorporate AI feedback for further improvement. (2) Models' abilities to learn from the feedback differ when playing different roles. For example, it is harder for Claude-instant to improve as the buyer than as the seller. (3) When unrolling the game to multiple rounds, stronger agents can consistently improve their performance by meaningfully using previous experiences and iterative AI feedback, yet have a higher risk of breaking the deal. We hope our work provides insightful initial explorations of having models autonomously improve each other with game playing and AI feedback.

  • 4 authors
·
May 17, 2023

Efficient Estimation of Material Property Curves and Surfaces via Active Learning

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 14, 2020

Data Darwinism Part II: DataEvolve -- AI can Autonomously Evolve Pretraining Data Curation

Data Darwinism (Part I) established a ten-level hierarchy for data processing, showing that stronger processing can unlock greater data value. However, that work relied on manually designed strategies for a single category. Modern pretraining corpora comprise hundreds of heterogeneous categories spanning domains and content types, each demanding specialized treatment. At this scale, manual strategy design becomes prohibitive. This raises a key question: can strategies evolve in an automated way? We introduce DataEvolve, a framework that enables strategies to evolve through iterative optimization rather than manual design. For each data category, DataEvolve operates in a closed evolutionary loop: it identifies quality issues, generates candidate strategies, executes them on sampled data, evaluates results, and refines approaches across generations. The process accumulates knowledge through an experience pool of discovered issues and a strategy pool tracking performance across iterations. Applied to 8 categories spanning 672B tokens from Nemotron-CC, DataEvolve produces Darwin-CC, a 504B-token dataset with strategies evolved through 30 iterations per category. Training 3B models on 500B tokens, Darwin-CC outperforms raw data (+3.96 points) and achieves a 44.13 average score across 18 benchmarks, surpassing DCLM, Ultra-FineWeb, and FineWeb-Edu, with strong gains on knowledge-intensive tasks such as MMLU. Analysis shows evolved strategies converge on cleaning-focused approaches: targeted noise removal and format normalization with domain-aware preservation, echoing the L4 (Generative Refinement) principles from Part I. Ablation studies confirm iterative evolution is essential: optimized strategies outperform suboptimal ones by 2.93 points, establishing evolutionary strategy design as feasible and necessary for pretraining-scale data curation.

  • 9 authors
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Mar 14

Business Arena: Benchmarking LLM Agents in a Realistic Marketplace

Running a business is a challenging form of intelligent work. Operators must infer opportunities from partial signals, commit capital under uncertainty, adapt to delayed outcomes in a changing market, and satisfy regulatory obligations before trading legally. Frontier LLM agents can increasingly complete complex workflows, yet business-related capabilities are rarely evaluated in existing agent benchmarks. We introduce Business Arena, a controlled environment where an AI agent runs a cross-border shop, buying from suppliers and selling to buyers over a long horizon. We ground the arena in real Alibaba.com sourcing data and market conditions calibrated from authoritative sources. Delayed and coupled consequences make individual business decisions difficult to judge, but their combined outcome is measurable through profit. Because profit alone cannot explain why an agent succeeds or fails, we compare agents with human-designed strategies to estimate available opportunity, use skill-level metrics to reveal underlying strengths and weaknesses, and trace realized gains and losses to the actions that produced them. We use mechanism ablations to establish that strong results reflect genuine business intelligence rather than neglect or simulator-specific shortcuts. We evaluate 15 frontier models and find a ninefold difference in mean final net worth. Even the best model falls behind human-designed strategies, indicating that business operation remains challenging for LLM agents. Skill-level analysis reveals operating styles, from margin-focused premium sellers to high-turnover wholesalers and customer-service specialists, while action-level attribution identifies the sourcing, pricing, and recovery decisions that create or destroy value. Together, Business Arena takes a first step toward a realistic and trustworthy testbed for evaluating end-to-end business agents.

alibabagroup alibaba
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Aug 8 5

Enrich-Retrieve-Rank: Scaling Capability Discovery Beyond In-Context Routing

Agent ecosystems now include thousands of MATS components (Models, Agents, Tools, and Skills), yet their discovery still relies on in-context routing. These systems read a registry (names, hints, or descriptions, as context budget permits), pick a candidate, invoke it, and retry on failure. This pattern degrades with scale, and registries are growing fast. We recast capability discovery as search over a registry by defining an offline enrichment step that turns sparse metadata into searchable profiles, and an online retrieve-then-rank pipeline that returns a ranked shortlist without invoking any candidates online. We show that from N=10 to 7,278 capabilities, in-context routing's top-1 accuracy (Match@1) collapses (0.85 to 0.12), while retrieve-then-rank degrades more gently (0.81 to 0.39) because its reranker still ranks the right capability first 0.70-0.87 of the time once retrieval finds it. In the Nova Micro sweep, the crossover is around N=500. We compare against two in-context baselines. Full-Ctx puts the whole registry in the prompt and asks the LLM to pick. Search&Pick gives the LLM a search tool to narrow candidates before it picks. At full scale the pipeline leads Search&Pick by 6.5 percentage points (pp) on Match@1 at about half the cost. It reduces cost 70x versus Full-Ctx. We use a fixed configuration (same enrichment, retriever, and scorer weights) across agent, tool, and skill registries. The pipeline runs in production as the default capability-discovery layer of a large-scale multi-agent platform.

  • 3 authors
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Aug 23

Reinforcement Learning Framework for Quantitative Trading

The inherent volatility and dynamic fluctuations within the financial stock market underscore the necessity for investors to employ a comprehensive and reliable approach that integrates risk management strategies, market trends, and the movement trends of individual securities. By evaluating specific data, investors can make more informed decisions. However, the current body of literature lacks substantial evidence supporting the practical efficacy of reinforcement learning (RL) agents, as many models have only demonstrated success in back testing using historical data. This highlights the urgent need for a more advanced methodology capable of addressing these challenges. There is a significant disconnect in the effective utilization of financial indicators to better understand the potential market trends of individual securities. The disclosure of successful trading strategies is often restricted within financial markets, resulting in a scarcity of widely documented and published strategies leveraging RL. Furthermore, current research frequently overlooks the identification of financial indicators correlated with various market trends and their potential advantages. This research endeavors to address these complexities by enhancing the ability of RL agents to effectively differentiate between positive and negative buy/sell actions using financial indicators. While we do not address all concerns, this paper provides deeper insights and commentary on the utilization of technical indicators and their benefits within reinforcement learning. This work establishes a foundational framework for further exploration and investigation of more complex scenarios.

  • 2 authors
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Nov 12, 2024

EPO: Explicit Policy Optimization for Strategic Reasoning in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities in well-defined problems with clear solutions, such as mathematics and coding. However, they still struggle with complex real-world scenarios like business negotiations, which require strategic reasoning-an ability to navigate dynamic environments and align long-term goals amidst uncertainty. Existing methods for strategic reasoning face challenges in adaptability, scalability, and transferring strategies to new contexts. To address these issues, we propose explicit policy optimization (EPO) for strategic reasoning, featuring an LLM that provides strategies in open-ended action space and can be plugged into arbitrary LLM agents to motivate goal-directed behavior. To improve adaptability and policy transferability, we train the strategic reasoning model via multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) using process rewards and iterative self-play, without supervised fine-tuning (SFT) as a preliminary step. Experiments across social and physical domains demonstrate EPO's ability of long-term goal alignment through enhanced strategic reasoning, achieving state-of-the-art performance on social dialogue and web navigation tasks. Our findings reveal various collaborative reasoning mechanisms emergent in EPO and its effectiveness in generating novel strategies, underscoring its potential for strategic reasoning in real-world applications.

  • 9 authors
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Feb 17, 2025

Game-theoretic LLM: Agent Workflow for Negotiation Games

This paper investigates the rationality of large language models (LLMs) in strategic decision-making contexts, specifically within the framework of game theory. We evaluate several state-of-the-art LLMs across a spectrum of complete-information and incomplete-information games. Our findings reveal that LLMs frequently deviate from rational strategies, particularly as the complexity of the game increases with larger payoff matrices or deeper sequential trees. To address these limitations, we design multiple game-theoretic workflows that guide the reasoning and decision-making processes of LLMs. These workflows aim to enhance the models' ability to compute Nash Equilibria and make rational choices, even under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Experimental results demonstrate that the adoption of these workflows significantly improves the rationality and robustness of LLMs in game-theoretic tasks. Specifically, with the workflow, LLMs exhibit marked improvements in identifying optimal strategies, achieving near-optimal allocations in negotiation scenarios, and reducing susceptibility to exploitation during negotiations. Furthermore, we explore the meta-strategic considerations of whether it is rational for agents to adopt such workflows, recognizing that the decision to use or forgo the workflow constitutes a game-theoretic issue in itself. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of LLMs' decision-making capabilities in strategic contexts and provides insights into enhancing their rationality through structured workflows. The findings have implications for the development of more robust and strategically sound AI agents capable of navigating complex interactive environments. Code and data supporting this study are available at https://github.com/Wenyueh/game_theory.

  • 12 authors
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Nov 8, 2024 2

Dynamic Collateral Control for Permissionless Spot Perpetual Basis Trading

We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and shows that the risk-constrained formulation provides a more robust operating benchmark relative to the economic optimum. In comparative calibration, the required collateral rises monotonically under volatility stress. The collateral is the lowest for BTC and increases significantly for long tail assets such as LINK and DOGE. Second, the paper derives an asymmetric dynamic extension in which the lower boundary of intervention is solvency driven, and the upper boundary is determined by a trade-off between carry-loss and the cost of rebalancing. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the lower boundary remains structurally relevant, whereas meaningful interior upper triggers survive mainly in the regimes with high carry and low costs. Third, the paper validates an execution-aware implementation with live routed execution and historical backtests. The execution layer shows that the realized wedges are significant, but become worse in the case of selling the basis. This justifies a minimum effective rebalancing size and a positive execution buffer. The historical validation shows that in the case of a fixed control rule the realized performance is predominantly explained by the funding environment.

  • 4 authors
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May 5