Daily Papers

Addressing global challenges often involves stimulating the large-scale adoption of new products or behaviors. Research traditions that focus on individual decision making suggest that achieving this objective requires identifying the drivers of individual discrete adoption choices. On the other hand, computational approaches rooted in complexity science focus on maximizing the propagation of a given product or behavior throughout social networks of interconnected adopters. Here, by integrating discrete choice modeling into the complex contagion theory, we propose a method to estimate individual-level thresholds to adoption. We validate the predictive power of this approach in two choice experiments. By integrating the estimated thresholds into computational simulations, we show that state-of-the-art seeding policies for initiating large-scale behavioral change might be suboptimal if they neglect individual-level behavioral drivers, which can be corrected through the proposed experimental method.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Complex networks have become essential tools for understanding diverse phenomena in social systems, traffic systems, biomolecular systems, and financial systems. Identifying critical nodes is a central theme in contemporary research, serving as a vital bridge between theoretical foundations and practical applications. Nevertheless, the intrinsic complexity and structural heterogeneity characterizing real-world networks, with particular emphasis on dynamic and higher-order networks, present substantial obstacles to the development of universal frameworks for critical node identification. This paper provides a comprehensive review of critical node identification techniques, categorizing them into seven main classes: centrality, critical nodes deletion problem, influence maximization, network control, artificial intelligence, higher-order and dynamic methods. Our review bridges the gaps in existing surveys by systematically classifying methods based on their methodological foundations and practical implications, and by highlighting their strengths, limitations, and applicability across different network types. Our work enhances the understanding of critical node research by identifying key challenges, such as algorithmic universality, real-time evaluation in dynamic networks, analysis of higher-order structures, and computational efficiency in large-scale networks. The structured synthesis consolidates current progress and highlights open questions, particularly in modeling temporal dynamics, advancing efficient algorithms, integrating machine learning approaches, and developing scalable and interpretable metrics for complex systems.

CNet is a C++/CUDA framework for building deep complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) and optimizing complex functions by gradient descent with Wirtinger derivatives. Complex models are underexplored yet natural where data is intrinsically complex -- RF/IQ communications, MRI k-space, radar/SAR, audio spectra -- and phase carries information real networks discard. CNet is physics-native: a network is a cascade of complex (often unitary) operations on an amplitude vector, and classification is a Born-rule measurement p_k = |z_k|^2/||z||^2 rather than a softmax over real logits. Its library of complex layers makes conv(x,k) = IFFT(FFT(x).FFT(k)) learnable via signal-processing primitives -- spectral-padding local kernels (Pad), the inverse DFT, a magnitude nonlinearity |z|^2 (CModulus2), holomorphic powers z^M (CPower), and mean pooling (MeanPool) -- with GPU kernels for every layer, a GPU true-Adam optimizer, and a reduced-memory inference mode. Three studies. (1) A fully complex FNet-style causal language model, built on a new O(N log N) causal Fourier mixer, matches a param-matched real-valued causal FNet on tiny-shakespeare in under half the steps. We introduce Born-rule attention: a content-based causal mixer whose weights are quantum-measurement probabilities |<Q_k,K_j>|^2 of one token against another -- the first attention mechanism built on the Born rule. With rotary position embeddings and per-token complex normalization, a fully complex Born-rule model reaches 1.52 nats/char on tiny-shakespeare, matching softmax attention and beating the Fourier mixer by 0.23. (2,3) Two bottleneck analyses -- radio-modulation classification (RML2016.10a) and the Fourier phase problem of coherent-diffraction imaging -- isolate where CVNNs need new operators. The complex machinery learns the correct structure; open problems are concrete and operator-level. Code: https://github.com/crasmarum/CNet

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can be represented as graphs whose links and vertices iteratively process data and solve tasks sub-optimally. Complex Network Theory (CNT), merging statistical physics with graph theory, provides a method for interpreting neural networks by analysing their weights and neuron structures. However, classic works adapt CNT metrics that only permit a topological analysis as they do not account for the effect of the input data. In addition, CNT metrics have been applied to a limited range of architectures, mainly including Fully Connected neural networks. In this work, we extend the existing CNT metrics with measures that sample from the DNNs' training distribution, shifting from a purely topological analysis to one that connects with the interpretability of deep learning. For the novel metrics, in addition to the existing ones, we provide a mathematical formalisation for Fully Connected, AutoEncoder, Convolutional and Recurrent neural networks, of which we vary the activation functions and the number of hidden layers. We show that these metrics differentiate DNNs based on the architecture, the number of hidden layers, and the activation function. Our contribution provides a method rooted in physics for interpreting DNNs that offers insights beyond the traditional input-output relationship and the CNT topological analysis.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Increasing evidence suggests that, similar to face-to-face communications, human emotions also spread in online social media. However, the mechanisms underlying this emotion contagion, for example, whether different feelings spread in unlikely ways or how the spread of emotions relates to the social network, is rarely investigated. Indeed, because of high costs and spatio-temporal limitations, explorations of this topic are challenging using conventional questionnaires or controlled experiments. Because they are collection points for natural affective responses of massive individuals, online social media sites offer an ideal proxy for tackling this issue from the perspective of computational social science. In this paper, based on the analysis of millions of tweets in Weibo, surprisingly, we find that anger travels easily along weaker ties than joy, meaning that it can infiltrate different communities and break free of local traps because strangers share such content more often. Through a simple diffusion model, we reveal that weaker ties speed up anger by applying both propagation velocity and coverage metrics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that quantitative long-term evidence has been presented that reveals a difference in the mechanism by which joy and anger are disseminated. With the extensive proliferation of weak ties in booming social media, our results imply that the contagion of anger could be profoundly strengthened to globalize its negative impact.

We study the chemical distance of supercritical Bernoulli percolation on Z^d. Recently, Dembin [Dem22] showed that the chemical distance exhibits sublinear variance, a phenomenon now referred to as superconcentration. In this article, we establish an equivalence between this phenomenon and chaotic behavior of geodesics under small perturbations of the configuration, thereby confirming Chatterjee's general principle relating anomalous fluctuations to chaos in the context of Bernoulli percolation. Our methods rely on a dynamical version of the effective radius, refining the notion first proposed in [CN25], in order to measure the co-influence of a given edge whose weight may be infinite. Together with techniques from the theory of lattice animals, this approach allows us to quantify the total co-influence of edges in terms of the overlap between original and perturbed geodesics.

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

Multiple epidemic waves are often taken as evidence that simple compartmental models are structurally inadequate. Yet the key question is not whether a simple model can reproduce multiple peaks, but how much time-varying structure is minimally required to preserve observed epidemic-wave patterns and what can legitimately be inferred from such a representation. Using the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, we develop a framework for peak-preserving dynamic parsimony linking dynamical systems, inverse problems, statistical inference, and infectious-disease modeling. We establish exact multi-wave representability under time-varying transmission, characterize conditions for epidemic peaks and resurgence, and show the incidence-only non-identifiability of time-varying transmission and removal rates. Our main methodological contribution is minimal peak-preserving complexity (MPPC): the smallest dimension of a positive time-varying transmission function whose posterior-predictive trajectories preserve salient features, including peak count, timing, height, trough depth, and whole-curve agreement. We estimate MPPC using peak-aware approximate Bayesian computation and evaluate it through six reproducible stress tests, a Philippine COVID-19 reported-case proof of concept, and short-term future-knot projection. Across diverse data-generating mechanisms, low-dimensional time-varying SIR models can preserve aggregate epidemic-wave topology with modest dynamic complexity. However, accurate trajectory compression does not imply recovery of the underlying mechanism or reliable long-term counterfactual prediction. The framework therefore separates four often-conflated questions: representability, minimal dynamic complexity, mechanistic identifiability, and projection validity, providing a basis for parsimonious modeling of complex epidemic trajectories.

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

Large-scale linear equations and high dimension have been hot topics in deep learning, machine learning, control,and scientific computing. Because of special conjugate operation characteristics, time-variant complex conjugate matrix equations need to be transformed into corresponding real field time-variant large-scale linear equations. In this paper, zeroing neural dynamic models based on complex field error (called Con-CZND1) and based on real field error (called Con-CZND2) are proposed for in-depth analysis. Con-CZND1 has fewer elements because of the direct processing of complex matrices. Con-CZND2 needs to be transformed into the real field, with more elements, and its performance is affected by the main diagonal dominance of coefficient matrices. A neural hypercomplex numbers space compressive approximation approach (NHNSCAA) is innovatively proposed. Then Con-CZND1 conj model is constructed. Numerical experiments verify Con-CZND1 conj model effectiveness and highlight NHNSCAA importance.

We introduce an experimentally accessible network representation for many-body quantum states based on entanglement between all pairs of its constituents. We illustrate the power of this representation by applying it to a paradigmatic spin chain model, the XX model, and showing that it brings to light new phenomena. The analysis of these entanglement networks reveals that the gradual establishment of quasi-long range order is accompanied by a symmetry regarding single-spin concurrence distributions, as well as by instabilities in the network topology. Moreover, we identify the existence of emergent entanglement structures, spatially localised communities enforced by the global symmetry of the system that can be revealed by model-agnostic community detection algorithms. The network representation further unveils the existence of structural classes and a cyclic self-similarity in the state, which we conjecture to be intimately linked to the community structure. Our results demonstrate that the use of tools and concepts from complex network theory enables the discovery, understanding, and description of new physical phenomena even in models studied for decades.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model--based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes-- based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network--including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Complex networks are nowadays employed in several applications. Modeling urban street networks is one of them, and in particular to analyze criminal aspects of a city. Several research groups have focused on such application, but until now, there is a lack of a well-defined methodology for employing complex networks in a whole crime analysis process, i.e. from data preparation to a deep analysis of criminal communities. Furthermore, the "toolset" available for those works is not complete enough, also lacking techniques to maintain up-to-date, complete crime datasets and proper assessment measures. In this sense, we propose a threefold methodology for employing complex networks in the detection of highly criminal areas within a city. Our methodology comprises three tasks: (i) Mapping of Urban Crimes; (ii) Criminal Community Identification; and (iii) Crime Analysis. Moreover, it provides a proper set of assessment measures for analyzing intrinsic criminality of communities, especially when considering different crime types. We show our methodology by applying it to a real crime dataset from the city of San Francisco - CA, USA. The results confirm its effectiveness to identify and analyze high criminality areas within a city. Hence, our contributions provide a basis for further developments on complex networks applied to crime analysis.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

In complex systems, we often observe complex global behavior emerge from a collection of agents interacting with each other in their environment, with each individual agent acting only on locally available information, without knowing the full picture. Such systems have inspired development of artificial intelligence algorithms in areas such as swarm optimization and cellular automata. Motivated by the emergence of collective behavior from complex cellular systems, we build systems that feed each sensory input from the environment into distinct, but identical neural networks, each with no fixed relationship with one another. We show that these sensory networks can be trained to integrate information received locally, and through communication via an attention mechanism, can collectively produce a globally coherent policy. Moreover, the system can still perform its task even if the ordering of its inputs is randomly permuted several times during an episode. These permutation invariant systems also display useful robustness and generalization properties that are broadly applicable. Interactive demo and videos of our results: https://attentionneuron.github.io/

In statistical relational learning, the link prediction problem is key to automatically understand the structure of large knowledge bases. As in previous studies, we propose to solve this problem through latent factorization. However, here we make use of complex valued embeddings. The composition of complex embeddings can handle a large variety of binary relations, among them symmetric and antisymmetric relations. Compared to state-of-the-art models such as Neural Tensor Network and Holographic Embeddings, our approach based on complex embeddings is arguably simpler, as it only uses the Hermitian dot product, the complex counterpart of the standard dot product between real vectors. Our approach is scalable to large datasets as it remains linear in both space and time, while consistently outperforming alternative approaches on standard link prediction benchmarks.

Complex networks provide a means to describe cities through their street mesh, expressing characteristics that refer to the structure and organization of an urban zone. Although other studies have used complex networks to model street meshes, we observed a lack of methods to characterize the relationship between cities by using their topological features. Accordingly, this paper aims to describe interactions between cities by using vectors of topological features extracted from their street meshes represented as complex networks. The methodology of this study is based on the use of digital maps. Over the computational representation of such maps, we extract global complex-network features that embody the characteristics of the cities. These vectors allow for the use of multidimensional projection and clustering techniques, enabling a similarity-based comparison of the street meshes. We experiment with 645 cities from the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo. Our results show how the joint of global features describes urban indicators that are deep-rooted in the network's topology and how they reveal characteristics and similarities among sets of cities that are separated from each other.

Correlated structures are intimately connected to intriguing phenomena exhibited by a variety of disordered systems such as soft colloidal gels, bio-polymer networks and colloidal suspensions near a shear jamming transition. The universal critical behavior of these systems near the onset of rigidity is often described by traditional approaches as the coherent potential approximation - a versatile version of effective-medium theory that nevertheless have hitherto lacked key ingredients to describe disorder spatial correlations. Here we propose a multi-purpose generalization of the coherent potential approximation to describe the mechanical behavior of elastic networks with spatially-correlated disorder. We apply our theory to a simple rigidity-percolation model for colloidal gels and study the effects of correlations in both the critical point and the overall scaling behavior. We find that although the presence of spatial correlations (mimicking attractive interactions of gels) shifts the critical packing fraction to lower values, suggesting sub-isostatic behavior, the critical coordination number of the associated network remains isostatic. More importantly, we discuss how our theory can be employed to describe a large variety of systems with spatially-correlated disorder.

This study examines cross-asset connectedness in an international financial network of major exchange rates, gold futures, and Bitcoin. Moving beyond the conventional net transmitter--receiver classification, we characterize asset roles through three complementary dimensions: direct spillover transmission, stationary source-tracing dynamics, and multistep upstream connectivity. Return spillovers are estimated using VAR generalized forecast-error variance decomposition (VAR-GFEVD). The positive pairwise net-spillover structure is then mapped into a row-stochastic Markov kernel whose transitions trace dominant net-spillover sources in the reverse direction of the original transmission edges. A stationary departure flux describes long-run movement in this source-tracing chain, while Viral Centrality is evaluated by the deterministic probability-propagation algorithm of Fink et al. to approximate multistep upstream reach. Empirically, gold futures emerge as the dominant direct net transmitter and the leading stationary source-tracing node, but do not have the largest Viral Centrality. Several exchange-rate nodes classified as direct net receivers have relatively high Viral Centrality, indicating broad conditional access to upstream source nodes. Bitcoin occupies an intermediate role. An auxiliary specification including the U.S. Dollar Index yields qualitatively similar role differentiation. The results show that direct connectedness, stationary source tracing, and approximate multistep upstream reach cannot be inferred from NET spillovers alone. All diffusion interpretations are descriptive and conditional on the estimated network, row normalization, and restart closure.

Modeling long-range dependencies in time series generation poses a fundamental trade-off between representational capacity and computational efficiency. Traditional temporal diffusion models suffer from local entanglement and the O(L^2) cost of attention mechanisms. We address these limitations by introducing PaCoDi (Parallel Complex Diffusion), a spectral-native architecture that decouples generative modeling in the frequency domain. PaCoDi fundamentally alters the problem topology: the Fourier Transform acts as a diagonalizing operator, converting locally coupled temporal signals into globally decorrelated spectral components. Theoretically, we prove the Quadrature Forward Diffusion and Conditional Reverse Factorization theorem, demonstrating that the complex diffusion process can be split into independent real and imaginary branches. We bridge the gap between this decoupled theory and data reality using a Mean Field Theory (MFT) approximation reinforced by an interactive correction mechanism. Furthermore, we generalize this discrete DDPM to continuous-time Frequency SDEs, rigorously deriving the Spectral Wiener Process describe the differential spectral Brownian motion limit. Crucially, PaCoDi exploits the Hermitian Symmetry of real-valued signals to compress the sequence length by half, achieving a 50% reduction in attention FLOPs without information loss. We further derive a rigorous Heteroscedastic Loss to handle the non-isotropic noise distribution on the compressed manifold. Extensive experiments show that PaCoDi outperforms existing baselines in both generation quality and inference speed, offering a theoretically grounded and computationally efficient solution for time series modeling.

World models, which simulate an environment and predict how it changes under actions, are increasingly used in real-world applications such as robotics. Complex systems call for the same tool because the effect of an action is not immediate. Seeding nodes for a campaign, or immunizing nodes against an epidemic, changes little on its own; what matters is the outcome that unfolds over the steps that follow. Designing an algorithm that selects such actions to maximize expected performance on a task is inherently iterative, and every candidate must be scored by the outcome it produces. Obtaining that outcome has relied on simulation, whose cost becomes a bottleneck when candidates are evaluated over many sampled trajectories. We propose an action-conditioned Network World Model that learns a network's diffusion dynamics under interventions over time, applies each action to the network, and predicts the outcome that follows. It serves as a fast evaluator inside an algorithm design loop in which a coding agent designs and refines executable algorithms using feedback from full rollouts, action-level credit, and counterfactual probes over alternative interventions. Across eight network tasks and five diffusion models, the designed algorithms match or exceed the strongest reported baseline in 138 of 141 settings while enabling up to 14.5 times faster rollouts than Monte Carlo simulation. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Complex networks can be used for modeling street meshes and urban agglomerates. With such a model, many aspects of a city can be investigated to promote a better quality of life to its citizens. Along these lines, this paper proposes a set of distance-based pattern-discovery algorithmic instruments to improve urban structures modeled as complex networks, detecting nodes that lack access from/to points of interest in a given city. Furthermore, we introduce a greedy algorithm that is able to recommend improvements to the structure of a city by suggesting where points of interest are to be placed. We contribute to a thorough process to deal with complex networks, including mathematical modeling and algorithmic innovation. The set of our contributions introduces a systematic manner to treat a recurrent problem of broad interest in cities.

This paper introduces a new multi-strain epidemic model with reinfection and cross-immunity to provide insights into the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in an area with reportedly high seroprevalence due to a largely unmitigated outbreak: the state of Amazonas, Brazil. Although high seroprevalence could have been expected to trigger herd immunity and prevent further waves in the state, we have observed persistent levels of infection after the first wave and eventually the emergence of a second viral strain just before an augmented second wave. Our experiments suggest that the persistent levels of infection after the first wave may be due to reinfection, whereas the higher peak at the second wave can be explained by the emergence of the second variant and a low level of cross-immunity between the original and the second variant. Finally, the proposed model provides insights into the effect of reinfection and cross-immunity on the long-term spread of an unmitigated epidemic.

We solve a longstanding problem in Bernoulli percolation: we derive sharp Ornstein--Zernike asymptotics for the probability that two distant points are connected by a finite cluster in the whole supercritical regime. Our proof has two main ingredients. First, the renewal structure from Fridbergh and Hammond (2024) yields an a priori bound on cluster volume. Second, we adapt the coarse-graining and irreducible-cluster framework of Companion, Ioffe, Velenik (2008) to finite supercritical connections. The main distinction from the subcritical analysis is that our argument does not require a separation of masses between irreducible and unrestricted finite connections. The volume bound and a modified coarse-graining construction instead provide stretched-exponential tails for the effective random-walk increments, which suffice to obtain the sharp asymptotics.

In this work, we investigate the impact of conserved charges on the dynamics of spread complexity of quantum states. Building on the notion of symmetry-resolved Krylov complexity [1], we extend the framework to general quantum states and analyze the relation between the total spread complexity and its decomposition into fixed-charge sectors. After exploring a range of analytical examples and using orthogonal polynomial approach, we identify conditions under which spread complexity exhibits equipartition across sectors. Finally, we discuss quantum speed limits that constrain the growth of complexity in the presence of conserved charges.

We study the critical long-range percolation on Z, where an edge connects i and j independently with probability 1-exp{-βint_i^{i+1}int_j^{j+1}|u-v|^{-2}{rm d} u{rm d} v} for |i-j|>1 for some fixed β>0 and with probability 1 for |i-j|=1. Viewing this as a random electric network where each edge has a unit conductance, we show that the effective resistances from 0 to [-n,n]^c and from the interval [-n,n] to [-2n,2n]^c (conditioned on no edge joining [-n,n] and [-2n,2n]^c) both grow like n^{δ(β)} for some δ(β)in (0,1).

We model and study the processes of excitation, absorption, and transfer in various networks. The model consists of a harmonic oscillator representing a single-mode radiation field, a qubit acting as an antenna, a network through which the excitation propagates, and a qubit at the end serving as a sink. We investigate how off-resonant excitations can be optimally absorbed and transmitted through the network. Three strategies are considered: optimising network energies, adjusting the couplings between the radiation field, the antenna, and the network, or introducing and optimising driving fields at the start and end of the network. These strategies are tested on three different types of network with increasing complexity: nearest-neighbour and star configurations, and one associated with the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex. The results show that, among the various strategies, the introduction of driving fields is the most effective, leading to a significant increase in the probability of reaching the sink in a given time. This result remains stable across networks of varying dimensionalities and types, and the driving process requires only a few parameters to be effective.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

I introduce a novel mathematical framework integrating topological dynamics, operator algebras, and ergodic geometry to study lattices of asynchronous metric dynamical systems. Each node in the lattice carries an internal flow represented by a one-parameter family of operators, evolving on its own time scale. I formalize stratified state spaces capturing multiple levels of synchronized behavior, define an asynchronous evolution metric that quantifies phase-offset distances between subsystems, and characterize emergent coherent topologies arising when subsystems synchronize. Within this framework, I develop formal operators for the evolution of each subsystem and give precise conditions under which phase-aligned synchronization occurs across the lattice. The main results include: (1) the existence and uniqueness of coherent (synchronized) states under a contractive coupling condition, (2) stability of these coherent states and criteria for their emergence as a collective phase transition in a continuous operator topology, and (3) the influence of symmetries, with group-invariant coupling leading to flow-invariant synchrony subspaces and structured cluster dynamics. Proofs are given for each theorem, demonstrating full mathematical rigor. In a final section, I discuss hypothetical applications of this framework to symbolic lattice systems (e.g. subshifts), to invariant group actions on dynamical lattices, and to operator fields over stratified manifolds in the spirit of noncommutative geometry. Throughout, I write in the first person to emphasize the exploratory nature of this work. The paper avoids any reference to cosmology or observers, focusing instead on clean, formal mathematics suitable for a broad array of dynamical systems.

We develop a tractable identification approach for strategic network formation models with both strategic link interdependence and individual unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects). The key challenge is that endogenous network statistics (e.g. number of common friends) enter the link formation equation, while the mapping from model primitives to equilibrium network structure is generally intractable. Our approach sidesteps this difficulty using a ``bounding-by-c'' technique that treats endogenous covariates as random variables and exploits monotonicity restrictions to obtain identifying information. A central contribution is to develop a spectrum of fixed-effects handling strategies based on subnetwork configurations: tetrad-based restrictions that difference out all individual fixed effects, triad-based and weighted restrictions that combine ``difference-out'' and ``integrate-out'' steps by differencing out some fixed effects and profiling over the remainder conditional on observed characteristics, and general weighted cycle-based restrictions that unify these cases. We also provide point identification results. Preliminary simulations show that the approach can deliver informative bounds on the structural parameters.

We investigate distributional properties of the centered Erdős--Rényi distribution (Lunagòmez et al., 2021) and propose a semi-conjugate Bayesian approach to multiple network data. In simulations, both Gibbs sampling and empirical Bayes accurately recover network summaries, with the latter scaling efficiently with network size. As a companion to this note, we provide the R package BayesCER, which implements the proposed methodology.

Conditional mutual information (CMI) probes spatial non-Markovianity and plays a central role in a recently developed framework for defining mixed-state phases based on local reversibility. This framework sharply distinguishes exponentially decaying from algebraically decaying CMI, since the latter obstructs equivalence to a state with finite Markov length. Here we show that states that flow to the same renormalization-group (RG) fixed point can nevertheless exhibit qualitatively different CMI. Starting from a critical Gibbs state of a finite-range local classical Hamiltonian, whose CMI vanishes beyond the interaction range, we show that an RG-irrelevant perturbation that breaks detailed balance generically generates algebraically decaying CMI. Crucially, these power-law tails are cutoff-suppressed: although they lead to an infinite Markov length at every fixed lattice cutoff, they vanish as a positive power of the cutoff in the continuum limit. We construct solvable models that exhibit this phenomenon and predict that the Ising-symmetric critical point of Toom's cellular automata generically exhibits such behavior. We also find analogous cutoff-suppressed CMI in the high-temperature paramagnetic phase of the long-range Ising paramagnet, in contrast with the genuine power-law CMI at the finite-temperature critical point in this same model that survives the continuum limit. We also derive a general result that in one spatial dimension, CMI decays faster than the inverse square of the buffer length if and only if the long-distance physics is Markovian.

A complex system with cluttered observations may be a coupled mixture of multiple simple sub-systems corresponding to latent entities. Such sub-systems may hold distinct dynamics in the continuous-time domain; therein, complicated interactions between sub-systems also evolve over time. This setting is fairly common in the real world but has been less considered. In this paper, we propose a sequential learning approach under this setting by decoupling a complex system for handling irregularly sampled and cluttered sequential observations. Such decoupling brings about not only subsystems describing the dynamics of each latent entity but also a meta-system capturing the interaction between entities over time. Specifically, we argue that the meta-system evolving within a simplex is governed by projected differential equations (ProjDEs). We further analyze and provide neural-friendly projection operators in the context of Bregman divergence. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show the advantages of our approach when facing complex and cluttered sequential data compared to the state-of-the-art.

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

With the growing spread of misinformation online, research has increasingly focused on detecting and tracking fake news. However, an overlooked issue is that fake news does not naturally exist in social networks -- it often originates from distorted facts or deliberate fabrication by malicious actors. Understanding how true news gradually evolves into fake news is critical for early detection and prevention, reducing its spread and impact. Hence, in this paper, we take the first step toward simulating and revealing this evolution, proposing a Fake News evolUtion Simulation framEwork (FUSE) based on large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we employ LLM as agents to represent individuals in a simulated social network. We define four types of agents commonly observed in daily interactions: spreaders, who propagate information; commentators, who provide opinions and interpretations; verifiers, who check the accuracy of information; and bystanders, who passively observe without engaging. For simulated environments, we model various social network structures, such as high-clustering networks and scale-free networks, to mirror real-world network dynamics. Each day, the agents engage in belief exchanges, reflect on their thought processes, and reintroduce the news accordingly. Given the lack of prior work in this area, we developed a FUSE-EVAL evaluation framework to measure the deviation from true news during the fake news evolution process. The results show that FUSE successfully captures the underlying patterns of how true news transforms into fake news and accurately reproduces previously discovered instances of fake news, aligning closely with human evaluations. Moreover, our work provides insights into the fact that combating fake news should not be delayed until it has fully evolved; instead, prevention in advance is key to achieving better outcomes.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

We study complex saddle points of the worldline path integral for massive charged particles in two-dimensional maximally symmetric backgrounds threaded by homogeneous electric fields. Within the worldline formalism, we show that the semiclassical saddles generically require complexifying both the target spacetime and the proper-time parameter. The resulting solutions comprise two slices of a single complex family, distinguished by the direction of proper-time evolution. The one evolving in imaginary proper time carries an action that typically controls the exponential suppression of non-perturbative effects, while that evolving in real proper time may encode additional complex phases responsible for quantum interference between saddles. Treating this family as a whole, we give a prescription for constructing and classifying all topologically inequivalent instanton sectors, and we find that the worldline action depends only on their topological data, namely winding numbers around the compact directions and certain isolated punctures. Moreover, in Anti-de Sitter spacetime, the qualitative structure of the solutions is governed by the dimensionless ratio R |eE|/m (R being the curvature radius), which distinguishes sub-extremal, extremal, and super-extremal regimes. By contrast, no analogous distinction occurs in de Sitter---where the instantons are insensitive to this ratio---or in Minkowski spacetime, which lacks a curvature scale altogether. We also recast the action as a sum over residues of the relevant (non-conserved) conjugate momentum, making transparent which analytic data control each contribution. Finally, we discuss the subtleties that arise when solutions built in various local patches are lifted to global (Anti-)de Sitter space. These impose further necessary conditions on which saddles can in principle contribute to the one-loop path integral.

Minimal Phenomenal Experiences (MPEs) are states of consciousness in which wakefulness is preserved but phenomenal content is low or absent. The Entropic Brain Hypothesis (EBH) is a model of conscious processes that regards the entropy of spontaneous brain activity as a marker of 'phenomenal richness', exemplified by high-content psychedelic experiences (HCPEs). Yet recent human neuroimaging studies of MPEs induced by meditation -- and possibly 5-MeO-DMT -- suggest that these states, defined by their phenomenological simplicity, also show signs of increased neurophysiological entropy. This presents a conundrum for the EBH: brain entropy is elevated with increased and decreased richness of the phenomenal experience. Here, we put forward the Complex Brain Hypothesis (CBH), which proposes that the richness of experience differentiating MPEs from HCPEs is better indexed by complexity than by entropy. We argue that brain complexity is modulated by the grain of inference through which the brain resolves uncertainty: some HCPEs exemplify a fine-grained regime, in which loosened constraints amplify fluctuations into proliferating content, whereas some MPEs exemplify a coarse-grained regime, in which a simpler model dissolves variety into an experience of 'contentless' awareness. Both regimes can be associated with elevated brain entropy, but they diverge in phenomenology and perturbational signatures. By resolving the entropy-content conundrum, the CBH refines the EBH and highlights MPEs as an important test case for computational theories of consciousness.

Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent Systems (LLM-MASs) have demonstrated remarkable real-world capabilities, effectively collaborating to complete complex tasks. While these systems are designed with safety mechanisms, such as rejecting harmful instructions through alignment, their security remains largely unexplored. This gap leaves LLM-MASs vulnerable to targeted disruptions. In this paper, we introduce Contagious Recursive Blocking Attacks (Corba), a novel and simple yet highly effective attack that disrupts interactions between agents within an LLM-MAS. Corba leverages two key properties: its contagious nature allows it to propagate across arbitrary network topologies, while its recursive property enables sustained depletion of computational resources. Notably, these blocking attacks often involve seemingly benign instructions, making them particularly challenging to mitigate using conventional alignment methods. We evaluate Corba on two widely-used LLM-MASs, namely, AutoGen and Camel across various topologies and commercial models. Additionally, we conduct more extensive experiments in open-ended interactive LLM-MASs, demonstrating the effectiveness of Corba in complex topology structures and open-source models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/zhrli324/Corba.

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19. % We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.

In contrast to entropy, which increases monotonically, the "complexity" or "interestingness" of closed systems seems intuitively to increase at first and then decrease as equilibrium is approached. For example, our universe lacked complex structures at the Big Bang and will also lack them after black holes evaporate and particles are dispersed. This paper makes an initial attempt to quantify this pattern. As a model system, we use a simple, two-dimensional cellular automaton that simulates the mixing of two liquids ("coffee" and "cream"). A plausible complexity measure is then the Kolmogorov complexity of a coarse-grained approximation of the automaton's state, which we dub the "apparent complexity." We study this complexity measure, and show analytically that it never becomes large when the liquid particles are non-interacting. By contrast, when the particles do interact, we give numerical evidence that the complexity reaches a maximum comparable to the "coffee cup's" horizontal dimension. We raise the problem of proving this behavior analytically.

We put forward the dynamical study of a novel higher-order small network of Chialvo neurons arranged in a ring-star topology, with the neurons interacting via linear diffusive couplings. This model is perceived to imitate the nonlinear dynamical properties exhibited by a realistic nervous system where the neurons transfer information through higher-order multi-body interactions. We first analyze our model using the tools from nonlinear dynamics literature: fixed point analysis, Jacobian matrix, and bifurcation patterns. We observe the coexistence of chaotic attractors, and also an intriguing route to chaos starting from a fixed point, to period-doubling, to cyclic quasiperiodic closed invariant curves, to ultimately chaos. We numerically observe the existence of codimension-1 bifurcation patterns: saddle-node, period-doubling, and Neimark Sacker. We also qualitatively study the typical phase portraits of the system and numerically quantify chaos and complexity using the 0-1 test and sample entropy measure respectively. Finally, we study the collective behavior of the neurons in terms of two synchronization measures: the cross-correlation coefficient, and the Kuramoto order parameter.