Daily Papers

Continuous electroencephalography (EEG) emotion prediction aims to model the temporal evolution of human emotional states from EEG signals. Unlike conventional discrete emotion recognition, continuous prediction requires capturing long-range temporal dependencies and coherent emotional dynamics. However, existing methods mainly rely on point-wise regression and directly model noisy high-dimensional EEG features, limiting their ability to characterize continuous emotional evolution.To address these challenges, we propose EEGDancer, a dynamic emotional latent space learning framework for continuous EEG emotion prediction. The framework integrates vector-quantized representation learning, masked temporal modeling, and reinforcement learning-based trajectory optimization into a unified architecture.Specifically, a causal spatiotemporal Vector-Quantization Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) is designed to learn structured emotional prototypes and construct a discrete-continuous emotional latent space from EEG signals. Based on the learned latent representations, a Transformer-based masked dynamic modeling strategy captures long-range emotional dependencies and temporal evolution patterns. Furthermore, continuous emotion prediction is formulated as a sequential decision-making problem, and a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) framework is introduced to optimize emotional prediction trajectories at the sequence level instead of frame-wise local fitting.Extensive experiments on the SEED, SEED-IV, and Long-Term Naturalistic Emotion datasets demonstrate that EEGDancer consistently outperforms existing machine learning and deep learning methods. Ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of the proposed latent space and reinforcement learning-based trajectory optimization for modeling continuous EEG emotional dynamics.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

We propose a general method for measuring complex variables on a continuous, interval spectrum by combining supervised deep learning with the Constructing Measures approach to faceted Rasch item response theory (IRT). We decompose the target construct, hate speech in our case, into multiple constituent components that are labeled as ordinal survey items. Those survey responses are transformed via IRT into a debiased, continuous outcome measure. Our method estimates the survey interpretation bias of the human labelers and eliminates that influence on the generated continuous measure. We further estimate the response quality of each labeler using faceted IRT, allowing responses from low-quality labelers to be removed. Our faceted Rasch scaling procedure integrates naturally with a multitask deep learning architecture for automated prediction on new data. The ratings on the theorized components of the target outcome are used as supervised, ordinal variables for the neural networks' internal concept learning. We test the use of an activation function (ordinal softmax) and loss function (ordinal cross-entropy) designed to exploit the structure of ordinal outcome variables. Our multitask architecture leads to a new form of model interpretation because each continuous prediction can be directly explained by the constituent components in the penultimate layer. We demonstrate this new method on a dataset of 50,000 social media comments sourced from YouTube, Twitter, and Reddit and labeled by 11,000 U.S.-based Amazon Mechanical Turk workers to measure a continuous spectrum from hate speech to counterspeech. We evaluate Universal Sentence Encoders, BERT, and RoBERTa as language representation models for the comment text, and compare our predictive accuracy to Google Jigsaw's Perspective API models, showing significant improvement over this standard benchmark.

Prior works on event-based optical flow estimation have investigated several gradient-based learning methods to train neural networks for predicting optical flow. However, they do not utilize the fast data rate of event data streams and rely on a spatio-temporal representation constructed from a collection of events over a fixed period of time (often between two grayscale frames). As a result, optical flow is only evaluated at a frequency much lower than the rate data is produced by an event-based camera, leading to a temporally sparse optical flow estimation. To predict temporally dense optical flow, we cast the problem as a sequential learning task and propose a training methodology to train sequential networks for continuous prediction on an event stream. We propose two types of networks: one focused on performance and another focused on compute efficiency. We first train long-short term memory networks (LSTMs) on the DSEC dataset and demonstrated 10x temporally dense optical flow estimation over existing flow estimation approaches. The additional benefit of having a memory to draw long temporal correlations back in time results in a 19.7% improvement in flow prediction accuracy of LSTMs over similar networks with no memory elements. We subsequently show that the inherent recurrence of spiking neural networks (SNNs) enables them to learn and estimate temporally dense optical flow with 31.8% lesser parameters than LSTM, but with a slightly increased error. This demonstrates potential for energy-efficient implementation of fast optical flow prediction using SNNs.

Vision-language models (VLMs) show promise as tools for inferring affect from visual stimuli at scale; it is not yet clear how closely their outputs align with human affective ratings. We benchmarked nine VLMs, ranging from state-of-the-art proprietary models to open-source models, on three psycho-metrically validated affective image datasets: the International Affective Picture System, the Nencki Affective Picture System, and the Library of AI-Generated Affective Images. The models performed two tasks in the zero-shot setting: (i) top-emotion classification (selecting the strongest discrete emotion elicited by an image) and (ii) continuous prediction of human ratings on 1-7/9 Likert scales for discrete emotion categories and affective dimensions. We also evaluated the impact of rater-conditioned prompting on the LAI-GAI dataset using de-identified participant metadata. The results show good performance in discrete emotion classification, with accuracies typically ranging from 60% to 80% on six-emotion labels and from 60% to 75% on a more challenging 12-category task. The predictions of anger and surprise had the lowest accuracy in all datasets. For continuous rating prediction, models showed moderate to strong alignment with humans (r > 0.75) but also exhibited consistent biases, notably weaker performance on arousal, and a tendency to overestimate response strength. Rater-conditioned prompting resulted in only small, inconsistent changes in predictions. Overall, VLMs capture broad affective trends but lack the nuance found in validated psychological ratings, highlighting their potential and current limitations for affective computing and mental health-related applications.

The Multimodal Sentiment Analysis Challenge (MuSe) 2022 is dedicated to multimodal sentiment and emotion recognition. For this year's challenge, we feature three datasets: (i) the Passau Spontaneous Football Coach Humor (Passau-SFCH) dataset that contains audio-visual recordings of German football coaches, labelled for the presence of humour; (ii) the Hume-Reaction dataset in which reactions of individuals to emotional stimuli have been annotated with respect to seven emotional expression intensities, and (iii) the Ulm-Trier Social Stress Test (Ulm-TSST) dataset comprising of audio-visual data labelled with continuous emotion values (arousal and valence) of people in stressful dispositions. Using the introduced datasets, MuSe 2022 2022 addresses three contemporary affective computing problems: in the Humor Detection Sub-Challenge (MuSe-Humor), spontaneous humour has to be recognised; in the Emotional Reactions Sub-Challenge (MuSe-Reaction), seven fine-grained `in-the-wild' emotions have to be predicted; and in the Emotional Stress Sub-Challenge (MuSe-Stress), a continuous prediction of stressed emotion values is featured. The challenge is designed to attract different research communities, encouraging a fusion of their disciplines. Mainly, MuSe 2022 targets the communities of audio-visual emotion recognition, health informatics, and symbolic sentiment analysis. This baseline paper describes the datasets as well as the feature sets extracted from them. A recurrent neural network with LSTM cells is used to set competitive baseline results on the test partitions for each sub-challenge. We report an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of .8480 for MuSe-Humor; .2801 mean (from 7-classes) Pearson's Correlations Coefficient for MuSe-Reaction, as well as .4931 Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) and .4761 for valence and arousal in MuSe-Stress, respectively.

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) generate text by iteratively unmasking tokens, but their standard decoder reduces each step to a binary action: a position is either committed to a single token or left fully masked, discarding rich predictive information rather than carrying it forward, and forcing premature, irrevocable commitments that lead to poor performance under a limited decoding budget. In this paper, we reinterpret mask prediction as a clean-state prediction (x-prediction) and show that it can be used to induce a continuous flow in the input embedding space. Building on this view, we propose a continuous decoding framework for MDLMs where tokens can accumulate partial progress at each diffusion step and remain revisable. To match the uneven contextual constraints across positions in language, we replace the globally synchronous schedule in image diffusion with a confidence-based asynchronous update in which the diffusion progress is token-wise accumulated. Additionally, we introduce a lightweight policy network and formulate its training as a reinforcement learning problem. Applied to pretrained LLaDA, our decoder retains 83--97% of full-budget accuracy using under 15% of the diffusion steps, largely outperforming discrete mask-prediction decoding at matched budgets.

Within this decade, quantum computers are predicted to outperform conventional computers in terms of processing power and have a disruptive effect on a variety of business sectors. It is predicted that the financial sector would be one of the first to benefit from quantum computing both in the short and long terms. In this research work we use Hybrid Quantum Neural networks to present a quantum machine learning approach for Continuous variable prediction.

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

The ability to recognize and predict temporal sequences of sensory inputs is vital for survival in natural environments. Based on many known properties of cortical neurons, hierarchical temporal memory (HTM) sequence memory is recently proposed as a theoretical framework for sequence learning in the cortex. In this paper, we analyze properties of HTM sequence memory and apply it to sequence learning and prediction problems with streaming data. We show the model is able to continuously learn a large number of variable-order temporal sequences using an unsupervised Hebbian-like learning rule. The sparse temporal codes formed by the model can robustly handle branching temporal sequences by maintaining multiple predictions until there is sufficient disambiguating evidence. We compare the HTM sequence memory with other sequence learning algorithms, including statistical methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), feedforward neural networks: online sequential extreme learning machine (ELM), and recurrent neural networks: long short-term memory (LSTM) and echo-state networks (ESN), on sequence prediction problems with both artificial and real-world data. The HTM model achieves comparable accuracy to other state-of-the-art algorithms. The model also exhibits properties that are critical for sequence learning, including continuous online learning, the ability to handle multiple predictions and branching sequences with high order statistics, robustness to sensor noise and fault tolerance, and good performance without task-specific hyper- parameters tuning. Therefore the HTM sequence memory not only advances our understanding of how the brain may solve the sequence learning problem, but is also applicable to a wide range of real-world problems such as discrete and continuous sequence prediction, anomaly detection, and sequence classification.

Visual grounding combines image--language understanding with geometric prediction, yet autoregressive multimodal models often express a box as a coordinate sequence. Sequential decoding adds computation to the multimodal processing needed for localization. Adapting these representations to box geometry offers a route to direct prediction. We present Jag, which adapts a compact pretrained multimodal model for direct continuous box prediction. A lightweight regression head reads the last valid input-token state, conditioned on the image and referring expression, and predicts all four box coordinates together. Geometric supervision jointly adapts the language backbone, visual merger, and regression head, allowing localization losses to shape both the multimodal representations and the coordinate mapping. Inference retains image--language processing and returns the box in one forward pass, without coordinate generation or text parsing. Across benchmarks, Jag consistently improves grounding accuracy over its base model across the observed target sizes and expression groups. Component ablation show that jointly adapting the representations and head substantially improves accuracy over training the head alone. Against existing specialized grounding models, it achieves competitive accuracy with lower single-request latency and GPU memory use. These results show how supervision tailored to the geometric answer can specialize a compact pretrained multimodal model for accurate grounding and efficient direct prediction. Project page: https://xyzzzh.github.io/Jag/

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and business value, net conversion rate (NetCVR), defined as the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, has been proposed.Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delayed feedback process. The two cascaded delays from click to conversion and from conversion to refund have opposite effects, making traditional CVR modeling methods inapplicable. Moreover, the lack of open-source datasets and online continuous training schemes further hinders progress in this area.To address these challenges, we introduce CASCADE (Cascaded Sequences of Conversion and Delayed Refund), the first large-scale open dataset derived from the Taobao app for online continuous NetCVR prediction. Through an in-depth analysis of CASCADE, we identify three key insights: (1) NetCVR exhibits strong temporal dynamics, necessitating online continuous modeling; (2) cascaded modeling of CVR and refund rate outperforms direct NetCVR modeling; and (3) delay time, which correlates with both CVR and refund rate, is an important feature for NetCVR prediction.Based on these insights, we propose TESLA, a continuous NetCVR modeling framework featuring a CVR-refund-rate cascaded architecture, stage-wise debiasing, and a delay-time-aware ranking loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TESLA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on CASCADE, achieving absolute improvements of 12.41 percent in RI-AUC and 14.94 percent in RI-PRAUC on NetCVR prediction. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/NetCVR.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Reverse engineering 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models from images is an important task for many downstream applications including interactive editing, manufacturing, architecture, robotics, etc. The difficulty of the task lies in vast representational disparities between the CAD output and the image input. CAD models are precise, programmatic constructs that involve sequential operations combining discrete command structure with continuous attributes, making it challenging to learn and optimize in an end-to-end fashion. Concurrently, input images introduce inherent challenges such as photometric variability and sensor noise, complicating the reverse engineering process. In this work, we introduce a novel approach that conditionally factorizes the task into two sub-problems. First, we leverage vision-language foundation models (VLMs), a finetuned Llama3.2, to predict the global discrete base structure with semantic information. Second, we propose TrAssembler that, conditioned on the discrete structure with semantics, predicts the continuous attribute values. To support the training of our TrAssembler, we further constructed an annotated CAD dataset of common objects from ShapeNet. Putting all together, our approach and data demonstrate significant first steps towards CAD-ifying images in the wild. Code and data can be found in https://github.com/qq456cvb/Img2CAD.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models aim to provide a single generalist controller for robots, but today's systems fall short on the criteria that matter for real-world deployment. Frontier models are closed, open-weight alternatives are tied to expensive hardware, reasoning-augmented policies pay prohibitive latency for their grounding, and fine-tuned success rates remain below the threshold for dependable use. We present MolmoAct2, a fully open action reasoning model built for practical deployment, advancing its predecessor along five axes. We introduce MolmoER, a VLM backbone specialized for spatial and embodied reasoning, trained on a 3.3M-sample corpus with a specialize-then-rehearse recipe. We release three new datasets spanning low-to-medium cost platforms, including MolmoAct2-BimanualYAM, 720 hours of teleoperated bimanual trajectories that constitute the largest open bimanual dataset to date, together with quality-filtered Franka (DROID) and SO100/101 subsets. We provide OpenFAST, an open-weight, open-data action tokenizer trained on millions of trajectories across five embodiments. We redesign the architecture to graft a flow-matching continuous-action expert onto a discrete-token VLM via per-layer KV-cache conditioning. Finally, we propose MolmoThink, an adaptive-depth reasoning variant that re-predicts depth tokens only for scene regions that change between timesteps, retaining geometric grounding at a fraction of prior latency. In the most extensive empirical study of any open VLA to date, spanning 7 simulation and real-world benchmarks, MolmoAct2 outperforms strong baselines including Pi-05, while MolmoER surpasses GPT-5 and Gemini Robotics ER-1.5 across 13 embodied-reasoning benchmarks. We release model weights, training code, and complete training data. Project page: https://allenai.org/blog/molmoact2

This paper describes a machine learning method to automate reading of cockpit gauges, using a CNN to invert affine transformations and deduce aircraft states from instrument images. Validated with synthetic images of a turn-and-bank indicator, this research introduces methods such as generating datasets from a single image, the 'Clean Training Principle' for optimal noise-free training, and CNN interpolation for continuous value predictions from categorical data. It also offers insights into hyperparameter optimization and ML system software engineering.

Current visual evaluation approaches are typically constrained to a single task. To address this, we propose OmniQuality-R, a unified reward modeling framework that transforms multi-task quality reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals for policy optimization. Inspired by subjective experiments, where participants are given task-specific instructions outlining distinct assessment principles prior to evaluation, we propose OmniQuality-R, a structured reward modeling framework that transforms multi-dimensional reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals. To enable this, we construct a reasoning-enhanced reward modeling dataset by sampling informative plan-reason trajectories via rejection sampling, forming a reliable chain-of-thought (CoT) dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Building on this, we apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for post-training, using a Gaussian-based reward to support continuous score prediction. To further stabilize the training and improve downstream generalization, we incorporate standard deviation (STD) filtering and entropy gating mechanisms during reinforcement learning. These techniques suppress unstable updates and reduce variance in policy optimization. We evaluate OmniQuality-R on three key IQA tasks: aesthetic quality assessment, technical quality evaluation, and text-image alignment.

Embodied agents often struggle with efficient navigation because they rely primarily on partial egocentric observations, which restrict global foresight and lead to inefficient exploration. In contrast, humans plan using maps: we reason globally first, then act locally. We introduce ReasonNavi, a human-inspired framework that operationalizes this reason-then-act paradigm by coupling Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) with deterministic planners. ReasonNavi converts a top-down map into a discrete reasoning space by room segmentation and candidate target nodes sampling. An MLLM is then queried in a multi-stage process to identify the candidate most consistent with the instruction (object, image, or text goal), effectively leveraging the model's semantic reasoning ability while sidestepping its weakness in continuous coordinate prediction. The selected waypoint is grounded into executable trajectories using a deterministic action planner over an online-built occupancy map, while pretrained object detectors and segmenters ensure robust recognition at the goal. This yields a unified zero-shot navigation framework that requires no MLLM fine-tuning, circumvents the brittleness of RL-based policies and scales naturally with foundation model improvements. Across three navigation tasks, ReasonNavi consistently outperforms prior methods that demand extensive training or heavy scene modeling, offering a scalable, interpretable, and globally grounded solution to embodied navigation. Project page: https://reasonnavi.github.io/

Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios. Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction, which can only predict the future channel in a fixed time slot per frame, while the other intra-frame channels are usually recovered by interpolation. However, these approaches suffer from a serious interpolation loss, especially for mobile millimeter wave communications. To solve this challenging problem, we propose a tensor neural ordinary differential equation (TN-ODE) based continuous-time channel prediction scheme to realize the direct prediction of intra-frame channels. Specifically, inspired by the recently developed continuous mapping model named neural ODE in the field of machine learning, we first utilize the neural ODE model to predict future continuous-time channels. To improve the channel prediction accuracy and reduce computational complexity, we then propose the TN-ODE scheme to learn the structural characteristics of the high-dimensional channel by low dimensional learnable transform. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve higher intra-frame channel prediction accuracy than existing schemes.

A demonstration of a real-time and continuous turn-taking prediction system is presented. The system is based on a voice activity projection (VAP) model, which directly maps dialogue stereo audio to future voice activities. The VAP model includes contrastive predictive coding (CPC) and self-attention transformers, followed by a cross-attention transformer. We examine the effect of the input context audio length and demonstrate that the proposed system can operate in real-time with CPU settings, with minimal performance degradation.

Autoregressive next-token prediction with the Transformer decoder has become a de facto standard in large language models (LLMs), achieving remarkable success in Natural Language Processing (NLP) at scale. Extending this paradigm to audio poses unique challenges due to its inherently continuous nature. We research audio generation with a causal language model (LM) without discrete tokens. We leverage token-wise diffusion to model the continuous distribution of the next continuous-valued token. Our approach delivers significant improvements over previous discrete solution, AudioGen, achieving 20% and 40% relative gains on AudioCaps in Frechet Audio Distance (FAD) and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, respectively. Additionally, we propose a novel masked next-token prediction task that incorporates masked prediction into the causal LM framework. On AudioCaps, the innovation yields 41% and 33% relative FAD improvements over AudioGen Base (285M) and AudioGen Large (1B) models, respectively, and is on par with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) diffusion models. Furthermore, we achieve these results with significantly fewer parameters -- 193M for our Base and 462M for our Large models.

The efficiency of large language models (LLMs) is fundamentally limited by their sequential, token-by-token generation process. We argue that overcoming this bottleneck requires a new design axis for LLM scaling: increasing the semantic bandwidth of each generative step. To this end, we introduce Continuous Autoregressive Language Models (CALM), a paradigm shift from discrete next-token prediction to continuous next-vector prediction. CALM uses a high-fidelity autoencoder to compress a chunk of K tokens into a single continuous vector, from which the original tokens can be reconstructed with over 99.9\% accuracy. This allows us to model language as a sequence of continuous vectors instead of discrete tokens, which reduces the number of generative steps by a factor of K. The paradigm shift necessitates a new modeling toolkit; therefore, we develop a comprehensive likelihood-free framework that enables robust training, evaluation, and controllable sampling in the continuous domain. Experiments show that CALM significantly improves the performance-compute trade-off, achieving the performance of strong discrete baselines at a significantly lower computational cost. More importantly, these findings establish next-vector prediction as a powerful and scalable pathway towards ultra-efficient language models. Code: https://github.com/shaochenze/calm. Project: https://shaochenze.github.io/blog/2025/CALM.

Next token prediction has been the standard training objective used in large language model pretraining. Representations are learned as a result of optimizing for token-level perplexity. We propose Continuous Concept Mixing (CoCoMix), a novel pretraining framework that combines discrete next token prediction with continuous concepts. Specifically, CoCoMix predicts continuous concepts learned from a pretrained sparse autoencoder and mixes them into the model's hidden state by interleaving with token hidden representations. Through experiments on multiple benchmarks, including language modeling and downstream reasoning tasks, we show that CoCoMix is more sample efficient and consistently outperforms standard next token prediction, knowledge distillation and inserting pause tokens. We find that combining both concept learning and interleaving in an end-to-end framework is critical to performance gains. Furthermore, CoCoMix enhances interpretability and steerability by allowing direct inspection and modification of the predicted concept, offering a transparent way to guide the model's internal reasoning process.

Discrete audio representations have become increasingly popular for building multimodal text-audio systems and integrating audio capabilities into Large Language Models (LLMs). However, numerous studies report performance degradation on various downstream tasks due to information loss during discretization. To address this, we propose a novel approach combining temporally compressed discrete tokens with dimensionality-reduced continuous residuals. Our framework consists of a hybridized discrete-continuous focal modulation codec and a hybrid Transformer. This architecture performs autoregressive inference in the discrete domain, coupled with non-autoregressive prediction and continuous residual upsampling. Experimental results show that our approach significantly improves the retention of speaker characteristics compared to discrete-only methods, while simultaneously reducing the number of required autoregressive steps.

Human motion prediction is a classical problem in computer vision and computer graphics, which has a wide range of practical applications. Previous effects achieve great empirical performance based on an encoding-decoding style. The methods of this style work by first encoding previous motions to latent representations and then decoding the latent representations into predicted motions. However, in practice, they are still unsatisfactory due to several issues, including complicated loss constraints, cumbersome training processes, and scarce switch of different categories of motions in prediction. In this paper, to address the above issues, we jump out of the foregoing style and propose a novel framework from a new perspective. Specifically, our framework works in a masked completion fashion. In the training stage, we learn a motion diffusion model that generates motions from random noise. In the inference stage, with a denoising procedure, we make motion prediction conditioning on observed motions to output more continuous and controllable predictions. The proposed framework enjoys promising algorithmic properties, which only needs one loss in optimization and is trained in an end-to-end manner. Additionally, it accomplishes the switch of different categories of motions effectively, which is significant in realistic tasks, e.g., the animation task. Comprehensive experiments on benchmarks confirm the superiority of the proposed framework. The project page is available at https://lhchen.top/Human-MAC.

Robust robot control benefits from explicitly modeling state transitions, but video-generation world action models (WAMs) introduce substantial deployment cost. Existing latent WAMs avoid explicit future generation, but often compress predictive representations or separate predictive modeling from the representations used for action generation. We introduce JEPA-WAM, a latent WAM built in a pretrained V-JEPA space, which couples latent transition prediction with continuous action generation through a shared predictor. JEPA-WAM predicts a spatially structured joint current-future target that captures task-shared visual temporal structure between current and future observations, while preserving dense patch-level correspondence. Through the shared predictor, transition supervision directly shapes the backbone, from which dedicated representations are extracted for action prediction. The same design can also be instantiated in pretrained VLA policies while preserving their original perception and action pathways. On LIBERO-Plus, JEPA-WAM achieves 79.2%, the best result without large-scale robot-policy pretraining, while its pretrained π_{0.5} instantiation reaches 86.3%, achieving the best overall performance. Experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and real-world bimanual manipulation further demonstrate strong generalization under visual and spatial shifts.

Generative visual models offer a foundation for learning representations of physical dynamics, yet their extension to continuous control raises a fundamental question: do visual prediction and action generation require separate computational pathways? Existing approaches usually introduce trainable action heads or separate action experts to bridge low-dimensional states and high-dimensional visual representations. In this work, we explore whether the visual backbone's existing capacity can also support control when actions are expressed in a compatible representation. Thus, we introduce PatchWAM (Patch World-Action Model), which treats continuous actions as another type of patch through a fixed mapping called Action-as-Patch. This allows a single model to predict both how the robot should move and what the scene may look like afterward. Visual prediction and action generation become parts of the same generative process, without a dedicated action head or separate action expert. Experiments with subsampled training windows show gains over a matched dual-expert control, while benchmark evaluations reach 91.8% success rate on LIBERO-Plus and 96.12% on RoboTwin 2.0 in a full-data setting with additional augmented demonstrations. More broadly, the result suggests that capability need not be added where it can be inherited: the constraint on extending a generative backbone is the interface a new signal is written in, not the capacity to model it.

The rapid progress of multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) has boosted the task of image quality assessment (IQA). However, a key challenge arises from the inherent mismatch between the discrete token outputs of MLLMs and the continuous nature of quality scores required by IQA tasks. This discrepancy significantly hinders the performance of MLLM-based IQA methods. Previous approaches that convert discrete token predictions into continuous scores often suffer from conversion errors. Moreover, the semantic confusion introduced by level tokens (e.g., ``good'') further constrains the performance of MLLMs on IQA tasks and degrades their original capabilities for related tasks. To tackle these problems, we provide a theoretical analysis of the errors inherent in previous approaches and, motivated by this analysis, propose a simple yet effective framework, Q-Scorer. This framework incorporates a lightweight regression module and IQA-specific score tokens into the MLLM pipeline. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Q-Scorer achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple IQA benchmarks, generalizes well to mixed datasets, and further improves when combined with other methods.

Face-to-face communication, as a common human activity, motivates the research on interactive head generation. A virtual agent can generate motion responses with both listening and speaking capabilities based on the audio or motion signals of the other user and itself. However, previous clip-wise generation paradigm or explicit listener/speaker generator-switching methods have limitations in future signal acquisition, contextual behavioral understanding, and switching smoothness, making it challenging to be real-time and realistic. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive (AR) based frame-wise framework called ARIG to realize the real-time generation with better interaction realism. To achieve real-time generation, we model motion prediction as a non-vector-quantized AR process. Unlike discrete codebook-index prediction, we represent motion distribution using diffusion procedure, achieving more accurate predictions in continuous space. To improve interaction realism, we emphasize interactive behavior understanding (IBU) and detailed conversational state understanding (CSU). In IBU, based on dual-track dual-modal signals, we summarize short-range behaviors through bidirectional-integrated learning and perform contextual understanding over long ranges. In CSU, we use voice activity signals and context features of IBU to understand the various states (interruption, feedback, pause, etc.) that exist in actual conversations. These serve as conditions for the final progressive motion prediction. Extensive experiments have verified the effectiveness of our model.

This work proposes a new formulation to the long-standing problem of convex decomposition through learning feature fields, enabling the first feed-forward model for open-world convex decomposition. Our method produces high-quality decompositions of 3D shapes into a union of convex bodies, which are essential to accelerate collision detection in physical simulation, amongst many other applications. The key insight is to adopt a feature learning approach and learn a continuous feature field that can later be clustered to yield a good convex decomposition via our self-supervised, purely-geometric objective derived from the classical definition of convexity. Our formulation can be used for single shape optimization, but more importantly, feature prediction unlocks scalable, self-supervised learning on large datasets resulting in the first learned open-world model for convex decomposition. Experiments show that our decompositions are higher-quality than alternatives and generalize across open-world objects as well as across representations to meshes, CAD models, and even Gaussian splats. https://research.nvidia.com/labs/sil/projects/learning-convex-decomp/

We present dots.tts, a 2B-parameter continuous autoregressive text-to-speech (TTS) foundation model that models speech in a continuous latent space. Compared with existing continuous autoregressive models, our key innovations are threefold. First, we train an AudioVAE with multiple objectives to build a semantically structured and prediction-friendly continuous speech space. Second, we use full-history conditioning in the flow-matching head to preserve long-range consistency and reduce drift during generation. Third, we apply reward-free self-corrective post-training to the flow-matching head to further improve robustness and acoustic quality. After being trained on a large-scale multilingual corpus, dots.tts achieves the best average performance on Seed-TTS-Eval, with WERs of 0.94%/1.30%/6.60% and SIM scores of 81.0/77.1/79.5 on the zh/en/zh-hard test sets, respectively. Across other benchmarks, dots.tts also consistently demonstrates open-source state-of-the-art performance, exhibiting strong generation stability, voice cloning ability, and emotional expressiveness. For efficient inference, we further apply CFG-aware MeanFlow distillation, enabling low-latency speech generation with first-packet latencies of 85/54 ms in output streaming and dual-streaming modes, respectively. To facilitate reproducible research and practical deployment, we release the training and inference code, together with the pretrained, post-trained, and MeanFlow-distilled checkpoints, under the Apache 2.0 license.

Autonomous robots often need to move their camera before they can act: to inspect an object, reveal an occluded region, or obtain a view that responds to a user's intent. While vision-language navigation translates instructions to base motion and vision-language-action policies map instructions to manipulation actions, language-conditioned camera motion remains comparatively underexplored as a first-class action. We formulate language-conditioned camera motion generation: given a current RGB observation and a free-form natural-language intent, predict a relative target camera pose for the next observation. This task is inherently non-trivial: viewpoint changes are driven by latent perceptual intentions, and a valid motion may operate at different semantic granularity, from entering a room to looking around a corner, inspecting a visible object, or revealing an occluded detail. To model this structure, we mine multi-intention camera-motion supervision from egocentric video, pairing plausible intents and observation-gain descriptions with relative SE(3) target poses. We propose LIME, a vision-language camera-motion generator that combines an auto-regressive observation-gain output with a continuous flow-matching pose head. This design lets the model jointly predict what the next view should reveal while representing multi-hypothesis target views. Across experiments and downstream robotic tasks, we show that LIME can learn to actively choose camera poses from passive human video, turning ordinary egocentric recordings into supervision for intent-aware active perception.

We present Multimodal Flow, a fully continuous generative model of language and vision. Most unified multimodal models either model both language and quantized images as discrete tokens or combine discrete language prediction with continuous image generation. The former introduces a visual quantization bottleneck. The latter requires modality-dependent objectives and sampling procedures. Fully continuous modeling avoids these trade-offs and enables a shared generative process, but remains underexplored for multimodal pretraining. Multimodal Flow introduces a unified continuous architecture that integrates multimodal continuous representations with a shared chunk-causal flow backbone. It organizes text blocks and images as ordered continuous hyperchunks, preserving textual token order and visual spatial structure. The backbone learns a single vector field over these hyperchunks through Flow Matching. Joint attention enables cross-modal interaction, while modality-specific feed-forward networks process each modality. The model predicts multiple target chunks in parallel during training and generates hyperchunks sequentially at inference. We instantiate MF-1 and pretrain it on multimodal data. Across 0.6B, 1.2B, and 1.6B scales, continued pretraining consistently improves multimodal modeling. With only 150B pretraining tokens, MF-1 achieves an average score of 82.8 across GenEval and DPG-Bench and 75.3 across VQAv2, MMBench, and POPE, remaining competitive with unified models trained on substantially more data. Under matched data, optimization, and parameter budgets, Multimodal Flow further outperforms representative hybrid and discrete models. These results establish continuous chunk-based embedding flow modeling as a new fully continuous paradigm for unified multimodal modeling. The related code and model are publicly released at https://github.com/hustvl/Multimodal-Flow.

In this paper, we propose ProTracker, a novel framework for robust and accurate long-term dense tracking of arbitrary points in videos. The key idea of our method is incorporating probabilistic integration to refine multiple predictions from both optical flow and semantic features for robust short-term and long-term tracking. Specifically, we integrate optical flow estimations in a probabilistic manner, producing smooth and accurate trajectories by maximizing the likelihood of each prediction. To effectively re-localize challenging points that disappear and reappear due to occlusion, we further incorporate long-term feature correspondence into our flow predictions for continuous trajectory generation. Extensive experiments show that ProTracker achieves the state-of-the-art performance among unsupervised and self-supervised approaches, and even outperforms supervised methods on several benchmarks. Our code and model will be publicly available upon publication.

Opinions expressed in online finance-related textual data are having an increasingly profound impact on trading decisions and market movements. This trend highlights the vital role of sentiment analysis as a tool for quantifying the nature and strength of such opinions. With the rapid development of Generative AI (GenAI), supervised fine-tuned (SFT) large language models (LLMs) have become the de facto standard for financial sentiment analysis. However, the SFT paradigm can lead to memorization of the training data and often fails to generalize to unseen samples. This is a critical limitation in financial domains, where models must adapt to previously unobserved events and the nuanced, domain-specific language of finance. To this end, we introduce FinDPO, the first finance-specific LLM framework based on post-training human preference alignment via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). The proposed FinDPO achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard sentiment classification benchmarks, outperforming existing supervised fine-tuned models by 11% on the average. Uniquely, the FinDPO framework enables the integration of a fine-tuned causal LLM into realistic portfolio strategies through a novel 'logit-to-score' conversion, which transforms discrete sentiment predictions into continuous, rankable sentiment scores (probabilities). In this way, simulations demonstrate that FinDPO is the first sentiment-based approach to maintain substantial positive returns of 67% annually and strong risk-adjusted performance, as indicated by a Sharpe ratio of 2.0, even under realistic transaction costs of 5 basis points (bps).

Multimodal safety moderation requires distinguishing risks arising from visual content, user intent, and assistant behavior. Existing safeguards, however, are typically trained for a single judgment target and reduce safety assessment to a binary decision. Consequently, risk becomes difficult to compare across a multimodal interaction, and ambiguous cases are obscured. We introduce SafeAtlas-VL, a dataset of 1.5M training instances that places image-, request-, and response-level judgments on a five-level ordered scale. We curate a broad collection of safety-relevant data from both real-world and synthetic sources and apply a disagreement-aware annotation procedure. The resulting dataset spans 15 harm categories and 55 fine-grained subcategories, covering a broad range of multimodal safety scenarios. We also construct SafeAtlas-Bench, a held-out set of 5,000 instances for evaluating five-level predictions and continuous risk scores. Upon this dataset, we train the SafeAtlas Guard series of models via target-conditioned tuning for multimodal safety detection. Our models not only perform five-way classification of safety levels but also map safety to continuous scores through a soft cumulative ordinal head. Experimental results demonstrate that guard models trained on our dataset exhibit strong generalization: even without using the training sets of other benchmarks, they achieve competitive performance on the corresponding test sets. Notably, our 8B model attains the overall best performance, outperforming the previous SOTA by approximately 4% in F1 score. Code, data, and models are released to support further research. Warning: this paper contains example data that may be offensive, harmful, graphic, or disturbing.

Grid decarbonization for climate change requires dispatchable carbon-free energy like nuclear fusion. The tokamak concept offers a promising path for fusion, but one of the foremost challenges in implementation is the occurrence of energetic plasma disruptions. In this study, we delve into Machine Learning approaches to predict plasma state outcomes. Our contributions are twofold: (1) We present a novel application of Continuous Convolutional Neural Networks for disruption prediction and (2) We examine the advantages and disadvantages of continuous models over discrete models for disruption prediction by comparing our model with the previous, discrete state of the art, and show that continuous models offer significantly better performance (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve = 0.974 v.s. 0.799) with fewer parameters

This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture that was inspired by previous tree structured architectures which were only useable in discrete action spaces. Policy Prediction Network offers a way to improve sample complexity and performance on continuous control problems in exchange for extra computation at training time but at no cost in computation at rollout time. Our approach integrates a mix between model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Policy Prediction Network is the first to introduce implicit model-based learning to Policy Gradient algorithms for continuous action space and is made possible via the empirically justified clipping scheme. Our experiments are focused on the MuJoCo environments so that they can be compared with similar work done in this area.

Understanding cell cycle dynamics is crucial for studying biological processes such as growth, development and disease progression. While fluorescent protein reporters like the Fucci system allow live monitoring of cell cycle phases, they require genetic engineering and occupy additional fluorescence channels, limiting broader applicability in complex experiments. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of deep learning methods for predicting continuous Fucci signals using non-fluorescence brightfield imaging, a widely available label-free modality. To that end, we generated a large dataset of 1.3 M images of dividing RPE1 cells with full cell cycle trajectories to quantitatively compare the predictive performance of distinct model categories including single time-frame models, causal state space models and bidirectional transformer models. We show that both causal and transformer-based models significantly outperform single- and fixed frame approaches, enabling the prediction of visually imperceptible transitions like G1/S within 1h resolution. Our findings underscore the importance of sequence models for accurate predictions of cell cycle dynamics and highlight their potential for label-free imaging.

We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of the Integrated Brier Score (IBS) that showed robust correlation with the mean squared error (MSE) between the true and predicted probabilities by accounting for implied truths about the missing intermediate events. We demonstrated the superiority of SurvSurf compared to modern and traditional predictive survival models in two simulated datasets and two real-world datasets, using MSE, the more robust IBS and by measuring the extent of monotonicity violation.

Natural language is a powerful reasoning medium for language and vision-language models, but it is mismatched to the granularity of continuous control. Text and explicit subgoals operate at task-level granularity, whereas vision-language-action (VLA) policies must choose actions at a much finer temporal scale; a single reasoning step can therefore span many action chunks while remaining only weakly coupled to the action needed now. This suggests a different question for VLA: what should play the role of language? We argue that a useful VLA reasoning medium must be shareable across model instances, verifiable through downstream action improvement, and aligned with temporally extended control structure. Based on this view, we propose Continuous Reasoning for Vision-Language-Action. Our model first predicts continuous reasoning in the form of a structured set of continuous thoughts, then reuses them as shared context for chunk-structured action generation. Better action prediction alone does not certify good reasoning: if the same internal medium cannot be shared across model instances and independently verified through improved downstream control, the added latent may simply become a model-private shortcut that helps on seen behaviors without supporting generalizable control. We therefore instantiate continuous reasoning as a shared Gaussian latent interface and train it with a self-verification objective in which an exponential-moving-average teacher must successfully consume the student's reasoning when predicting target actions. Empirically, Continuous Reasoning improves LIBERO-PRO robustness and performs strongly on real robots, raising mean subtask success over π0.5 by 40.4% on TX-G2, an AgiBot G2-compatible variant, and 26.3% on HSR. This suggests that reasoning in VLA is less about extra tokens than about a shareable, verifiable internal language for action.

Diffusion-based editing models have emerged as a powerful tool for semantic image and video manipulation. However, existing models lack a mechanism for smoothly controlling the intensity of text-guided edits. In standard text-conditioned generation, Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) impacts prompt adherence, suggesting it as a potential control for edit intensity in editing models. However, we show that scaling CFG in these models does not produce a smooth transition between the input and the edited result. We attribute this behavior to the unconditional prediction, which serves as the guidance origin and dominates the generation at low guidance scales, while representing an arbitrary manipulation of the input content. To enable continuous control, we introduce Adaptive-Origin Guidance (AdaOr), a method that adjusts this standard guidance origin with an identity-conditioned adaptive origin, using an identity instruction corresponding to the identity manipulation. By interpolating this identity prediction with the standard unconditional prediction according to the edit strength, we ensure a continuous transition from the input to the edited result. We evaluate our method on image and video editing tasks, demonstrating that it provides smoother and more consistent control compared to current slider-based editing approaches. Our method incorporates an identity instruction into the standard training framework, enabling fine-grained control at inference time without per-edit procedure or reliance on specialized datasets.

In diffusion transformers, a class label or a text prompt is embedded once, and the same condition is reused at every denoising step. We ask whether predicted embeddings can serve as this condition instead. Next-Embedding Predictive Autoregression (NEPA) trains a Transformer to predict the next continuous embedding in a sequence. In generation, the clean image follows the noisy image, so its embeddings are the next embeddings after the condition and the noisy image. We train a NEPA model to predict them all at once with Multi-Embedding Prediction, and in Embedding Conditioned Generation, a DiT generator is conditioned on these predictions, recomputed at every denoising step, so the conditioning signal adapts to the current noisy state. Experiments on class-conditional ImageNet 256times256 study the condition of the generator, the design of Multi-Embedding Prediction, and the scaling of both models. The NEPA model adds a second network to every sampling step; with it, and combined with REPA, our final model, NEPA-DiT-XL, reaches an FID of 1.32 using about a third of the training compute of REPA.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Existing world models for autonomous driving struggle with long-horizon generation and generalization to challenging scenarios. In this work, we develop a model using simple design choices, and without additional supervision or sensors, such as maps, depth, or multiple cameras. We show that our model yields state-of-the-art performance, despite having only 469M parameters and being trained on 280h of video data. It particularly stands out in difficult scenarios like turning maneuvers and urban traffic. We test whether discrete token models possibly have advantages over continuous models based on flow matching. To this end, we set up a hybrid tokenizer that is compatible with both approaches and allows for a side-by-side comparison. Our study concludes in favor of the continuous autoregressive model, which is less brittle on individual design choices and more powerful than the model built on discrete tokens. Code, models and qualitative results are publicly available at https://lmb-freiburg.github.io/orbis.github.io/.

We consider the task of predicting Hamiltonian matrices to accelerate electronic structure calculations, which plays an important role in physics, chemistry, and materials science. Motivated by the inherent relationship between the off-diagonal blocks of the Hamiltonian matrix and the SO(2) local frame, we propose a novel and efficient network, called QHNetV2, that achieves global SO(3) equivariance without the costly SO(3) Clebsch-Gordan tensor products. This is achieved by introducing a set of new efficient and powerful SO(2)-equivariant operations and performing all off-diagonal feature updates and message passing within SO(2) local frames, thereby eliminating the need of SO(3) tensor products. Moreover, a continuous SO(2) tensor product is performed within the SO(2) local frame at each node to fuse node features, mimicking the symmetric contraction operation. Extensive experiments on the large QH9 and MD17 datasets demonstrate that our model achieves superior performance across a wide range of molecular structures and trajectories, highlighting its strong generalization capability. The proposed SO(2) operations on SO(2) local frames offer a promising direction for scalable and symmetry-aware learning of electronic structures. Our code will be released as part of the AIRS library https://github.com/divelab/AIRS.

Elections represent a crucial milestone in a nation's ongoing development. To better understand the political rhetoric from various movements, ranging from left to right, we propose a transformer-based model capable of projecting the political orientation of a text on a continuous left-to-right spectrum, represented by a normalized scalar d between -1 and 1. This approach enables analysts to focus on specific segments of the political landscape, such as conservatives, while excluding liberal and far-right movements. Such a task can only be achieved with multiclass classifiers, provided that the desired orientation is incorporated within one of their predefined classes. To determine the most suitable foundation model among 13 candidate transformers for this task, we constructed four distinct corpora. One corpus comprised annotated plenary notes from the German Bundestag, while another was based on an official online decision-making tool, Wahl-O-Mat. The third corpus consisted of articles from 33 newspapers, each identified by its political orientation, and the fourth included 535,200 tweets from 597 members of the 20th and 21st German Bundestag. To mitigate overfitting, we used two distinct corpora for training and two for testing, respectively. For in-domain performance, DeBERTa-large achieved the highest F1 score F1=0.844 as well as for the X (Twitter) out-of-domain test ACC=0.864. Regarding the newspaper out-of-domain test, Gemma2-2B excelled (MAE = 0.172). This study demonstrates that transformer models can recognize political framing in German news at the level of public opinion polls. Our findings suggest that both the model architecture and the availability of domain-specific training data can be as influential as model size for estimating political bias. We discuss methodological limitations and outline directions for improving the robustness of bias measurement.

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.

Next-token prediction has enabled highly fluent autoregressive language models, but it represents global structure only indirectly through sequential factorization. In contrast, high-fidelity autoencoders have become a standard primitive in image generation, enabling generative models to operate over continuous latent spaces; text lacks a comparably faithful continuous representation. We propose LLMAE, a method for repurposing a pretrained decoder-only language model as a continuous text autoencoder by exposing the activations of an intermediate layer as a fixed-length latent bottleneck. LLMAE achieves this interface with structured attention masks and LoRA adaptation, leveraging the generative prior of the original LLM. Across two backbones (270M Gemma 3 and 0.5B Qwen2.5), LLMAE reconstructs sequences up to 1024 tokens with high accuracy, reproducing up to 97% of documents verbatim. We demonstrate downstream utility by training a lightweight diffusion model that generates detailed image captions directly in the frozen LLMAE latent space. By mapping text into a fixed-length continuous latent space, our approach provides an effective substrate for downstream adaptation while benefiting from the fluency of the original LLM. Code and models are available at https://github.com/arkanath/LLMAE.

Gene regulatory network modeling often requires balancing predictive accuracy and mechanistic interpretability. In this work, we compare continuous surrogate models and a discrete mechanistic model on the same Arabidopsis thaliana induced systemic resistance (ISR) dataset, using both the raw continuous gene-expression measurements and their sign-binarized representation. The study considers eight defense-related genes measured over nine time points and evaluates two continuous predictors, Random Forest (RF) regression and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), against a threshold Boolean network (TBN). The models are assessed using rolling-origin one-step prediction, recursive multi-step rollout, and interpretability analysis. RF achieved the best average one-step numerical performance in the continuous domain, with an MAE of 1.910 and an RMSE of 2.836, compared with 2.089 and 3.106 for the MLP. In the binary domain, the TBN obtained the best average one-step qualitative performance, with a binary accuracy of 0.550 and a Hamming distance of 3.600, compared with 0.500 and 4.000 for RF, and 0.495 and 4.040 for the MLP. In recursive rollout, the TBN exactly reproduced the observed binarized trajectory, while the MLP also showed near-perfect fidelity, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.986, and RF accumulated substantially larger deviation, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.708. These results highlight that local numerical accuracy and global qualitative dynamical fidelity are not necessarily aligned, and suggest that continuous surrogates and threshold Boolean networks should be viewed as complementary tools for modeling biological regulation.

Predicting phenotypic and transcriptional responses to perturbations at single-cell resolution provides a powerful tool for probing biological systems. However, existing methods typically rely on fixed mappings learned during training, making it challenging to calibrate distribution shifts or adapt to novel perturbation conditions during inference. Here, we present scEGFlow, an energy-guided flow matching framework that dynamically bridges control and perturbed cellular states. scEGFlow models continuous transitions from control cell populations to perturbed states using conditional flow matching. It then applies condition-specific energy gradients to correct and steer these predictions, enabling flexible adjustments without retraining the flow model. Evaluations across benchmarks spanning imaging phenotypes and transcriptomic profiles show that scEGFlow outperforms existing methods in reconstructing response distributions under both seen and unseen perturbation conditions, faithfully preserving cellular manifold geometry and population heterogeneity. This advantage is notable when adapting to new conditions with only a few measured cells, consistently improving prediction accuracy. Furthermore, scEGFlow accurately recapitulates perturbation-induced up- and down-regulation patterns across consensus gene expression signatures, where energy guidance improves the agreement between predicted and observed regulatory directions. Ultimately, these findings demonstrate that scEGFlow provides a modular, generalizable, and steerable solution for single-cell perturbation modeling. By grounding generative flows in learned biological landscapes, this architecture establishes a new computational paradigm for navigating and manipulating cellular behavior in silico.

Gaussian-corrupted sentence embeddings have no direct linguistic interpretation, yet continuous diffusion language models can generate fluent text from them. We study this puzzle through Embedded Language Flows (ELF) and identify a decoder-basin mechanism: our evidence suggests that denoising becomes reliable when trajectories reach regions where the native decoder can read stable tokens. We introduce a diagnostic protocol for denoisability, semantic recoverability, order sensitivity, decoder compatibility, and trajectory reliability. It exposes failures hidden by scalar metrics: low mean-squared error can discard linguistic content, low perplexity can reflect low-entropy collapse, and clean latent reconstruction can coexist with a narrow decoder basin. A decoder-margin bound explains why token recovery depends on margin and local decoder sensitivity, not latent error alone. Auditing public ELF checkpoints reveals an interface phase diagram: early predictions are weakly readable, mid-trajectory disagreement marks a competition region, and late predictions enter a high-margin decoder basin. Once inside, token realization is surprisingly simple on generated ELF states: frozen T5 (Text-to-Text Transfer Transformer) token-embedding lookup recovers 93--96% of native decoder decisions, and a single linear readout reaches 97.9% agreement at 32k samples, leaving an approx1.1--1.2 perplexity gap in a structured residual tail. Under conservative held-out gates, a margin rule exits roughly 17--28% earlier in denoising steps under an explicit diagnostic monitor. Boundary checks on LangFlow, BitstreamDiffusion, and the Continuous Latent Diffusion Language Model (Cola-DLM) show that the same interface questions remain meaningful when the state object and decoder change. Continuous and latent diffusion language models should therefore be evaluated as representation-decoder systems.

We introduce Masked Trajectory Models (MTM) as a generic abstraction for sequential decision making. MTM takes a trajectory, such as a state-action sequence, and aims to reconstruct the trajectory conditioned on random subsets of the same trajectory. By training with a highly randomized masking pattern, MTM learns versatile networks that can take on different roles or capabilities, by simply choosing appropriate masks at inference time. For example, the same MTM network can be used as a forward dynamics model, inverse dynamics model, or even an offline RL agent. Through extensive experiments in several continuous control tasks, we show that the same MTM network -- i.e. same weights -- can match or outperform specialized networks trained for the aforementioned capabilities. Additionally, we find that state representations learned by MTM can significantly accelerate the learning speed of traditional RL algorithms. Finally, in offline RL benchmarks, we find that MTM is competitive with specialized offline RL algorithms, despite MTM being a generic self-supervised learning method without any explicit RL components. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/mtm

Recently, binary representation has been proposed as a novel representation that lies between continuous and discrete representations. It exhibits considerable information-preserving capability when being used to replace continuous input vectors. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of further introducing it to the output side, aiming to allow models to output binary labels instead. To preserve the structural information on the output side along with label information, we extend the previous contrastive hashing method as structured contrastive hashing. More specifically, we upgrade CKY from label-level to bit-level, define a new similarity function with span marginal probabilities, and introduce a novel contrastive loss function with a carefully designed instance selection strategy. Our model achieves competitive performance on various structured prediction tasks, and demonstrates that binary representation can be considered a novel representation that further bridges the gap between the continuous nature of deep learning and the discrete intrinsic property of natural languages.

This study explores the effectiveness of predictive maintenance models and the optimization of intelligent Operation and Maintenance (O&M) systems in improving wind power generation efficiency. Through qualitative research, structured interviews were conducted with five wind farm engineers and maintenance managers, each with extensive experience in turbine operations. Using thematic analysis, the study revealed that while predictive maintenance models effectively reduce downtime by identifying major faults, they often struggle with detecting smaller, gradual failures. Key challenges identified include false positives, sensor malfunctions, and difficulties in integrating new models with older turbine systems. Advanced technologies such as digital twins, SCADA systems, and condition monitoring have significantly enhanced turbine maintenance practices. However, these technologies still require improvements, particularly in AI refinement and real-time data integration. The findings emphasize the need for continuous development to fully optimize wind turbine performance and support the broader adoption of renewable energy.

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of static questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates.

Motion forecasting is a core task in autonomous driving systems, aiming to accurately predict the future trajectories of surrounding agents to ensure driving safety. Existing methods typically process discrete driving scenes independently, neglecting the temporal continuity and historical context correlations inherent in real-world driving environments. This paper proposes PanguMotion, a motion forecasting framework for continuous driving scenarios that integrates Transformer blocks from the Pangu-1B large language model as feature enhancement modules into autonomous driving motion prediction architectures. We conduct experiments on the Argoverse 2 datasets processed by the RealMotion data reorganization strategy, transforming each independent scene into a continuous sequence to mimic real-world driving scenarios.

Histopathology whole-slide images (WSIs) are routinely acquired in clinical practice and contain rich tissue morphology but lack direct molecular architecture and functional programs defining pathological states, whereas RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) provides genome-wide transcriptional profiles at substantial cost, thereby motivating WSI-based genome-wide transcriptomic prediction. Existing approaches for predicting gene expression from WSIs predominantly rely on deterministic regression with one-to-one mapping, limiting their ability to capture biological heterogeneity and predictive uncertainty. We propose RNA-FM, a flow-matching generative framework for genome-wide bulk RNA-seq prediction from WSIs. RNA-FM formulates transcriptomic prediction as a continuous-time conditional transport problem, learning a velocity field that maps a simple prior to the target gene expression distribution conditioned on morphologies. By integrating pathway-level structure, RNA-FM enables scalable and biologically interpretable genome-wide gene expression imputation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RNA-FM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches while maintaining biological meaningfulness. Code is available at https://github.com/YXSong000/RNA-FM.

Recent advance in deep learning has led to the rapid adoption of machine learning-based NLP models in a wide range of applications. Despite the continuous gain in accuracy, backward compatibility is also an important aspect for industrial applications, yet it received little research attention. Backward compatibility requires that the new model does not regress on cases that were correctly handled by its predecessor. This work studies model update regression in structured prediction tasks. We choose syntactic dependency parsing and conversational semantic parsing as representative examples of structured prediction tasks in NLP. First, we measure and analyze model update regression in different model update settings. Next, we explore and benchmark existing techniques for reducing model update regression including model ensemble and knowledge distillation. We further propose a simple and effective method, Backward-Congruent Re-ranking (BCR), by taking into account the characteristics of structured prediction. Experiments show that BCR can better mitigate model update regression than model ensemble and knowledge distillation approaches.

The study of continuous spin particles, as general low-energy implications of relativity and quantum mechanics, has intensified in recent years with potential experimental signatures. In this note we show that these particles are absent in perturbative super-string theories, generalising a result in arXiv:1302.4771 to the supersymmetric case. This stands out as a general low-energy prediction of all perturbative superstring constructions.

We present a continuous geometric framework that models the discrete algebraic operations of the Transformer architecture as an integro-differential equation (IDE) on a semantic fiber bundle calE = calM times R^d. Beginning from a single geometric axiom -- that the token sequence forms a discrete 1-manifold equipped with a canonical measure lattice -- we translate every core component of the modern Transformer (RMSNorm, RoPE, Softmax Attention, FFN, Residual Stream, SGD, Weight Decay) into a cohesive vocabulary of differential geometry, measure theory, and stochastic calculus. The resulting framework yields quantitative predictions spanning entropic optimal transport (Attention as a Schrödinger bridge) and non-equilibrium thermodynamics (SGD as Itô diffusion violating detailed balance). We conduct a six-part experimental campaign across five architectures (Qwen3, LLaMA\nobreakdash-3.1, Gemma\nobreakdash-3, GPT-2, Mistral) spanning 124M to 8B parameters. The empirical observables are quantitatively consistent with the geometric predictions: the ε^{-1/2} Lipschitz scaling calibration at machine precision (R^2 = 1.000), the Lie--Trotter operator-splitting torsion, the symmetric ablation instability confirming the Dual-Law of Topological Stability, the calO(1/k) thermodynamic suppression of Poincaré recurrence on the RoPE torus, the thermodynamic context-limit phase transition, and the Non-Equilibrium Steady State parameter vortex -- verified across two optimizers (AdamW and Pure SGD) to exclude momentum artifacts. The results demonstrate that analyzing Transformers through the lens of continuous stochastic differential geometry provides a predictive descriptive vocabulary for the stability limits, context bounds, and optimization dynamics of Large Language Models.

Implicit models separate the definition of a layer from the description of its solution process. While implicit layers allow features such as depth to adapt to new scenarios and inputs automatically, this adaptivity makes its computational expense challenging to predict. In this manuscript, we increase the "implicitness" of the DEQ by redefining the method in terms of an infinite time neural ODE, which paradoxically decreases the training cost over a standard neural ODE by 2-4x. Additionally, we address the question: is there a way to simultaneously achieve the robustness of implicit layers while allowing the reduced computational expense of an explicit layer? To solve this, we develop Skip and Skip Reg. DEQ, an implicit-explicit (IMEX) layer that simultaneously trains an explicit prediction followed by an implicit correction. We show that training this explicit predictor is free and even decreases the training time by 1.11-3.19x. Together, this manuscript shows how bridging the dichotomy of implicit and explicit deep learning can combine the advantages of both techniques.

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

We introduce KALL-E, a novel autoregressive (AR) language modeling approach with next-distribution prediction for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Unlike existing methods, KALL-E directly models and predicts the continuous speech distribution conditioned on text without relying on VAE- or diffusion-based components. Specifically, we use WaveVAE to extract continuous speech distributions from waveforms instead of using discrete speech tokens. A single AR language model predicts these continuous speech distributions from text, with a Kullback-Leibler divergence loss as the constraint. Experimental results show that KALL-E outperforms open-source implementations of YourTTS, VALL-E, NaturalSpeech 2, and CosyVoice in terms of naturalness and speaker similarity in zero-shot TTS scenarios. Moreover, KALL-E demonstrates exceptional zero-shot capabilities in emotion and accent cloning. Importantly, KALL-E presents a more straightforward and effective paradigm for using continuous speech representations in TTS. Audio samples are available at: https://zxf-icpc.github.io/kalle/.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Multi-agent trajectory prediction at signalized intersections is crucial for developing efficient intelligent transportation systems and safe autonomous driving systems. Due to the complexity of intersection scenarios and the limitations of single-vehicle perception, the performance of vehicle-centric prediction methods has reached a plateau. In this paper, we introduce an Infrastructure-to-Everything (I2X) collaborative prediction scheme. In this scheme, roadside units (RSUs) independently forecast the future trajectories of all vehicles and transmit these predictions unidirectionally to subscribing vehicles. Building on this scheme, we propose I2XTraj, a dedicated infrastructure-based trajectory prediction model. I2XTraj leverages real-time traffic signal states, prior maneuver strategy knowledge, and multi-agent interactions to generate accurate, joint multi-modal trajectory prediction. First, a continuous signal-informed mechanism is proposed to adaptively process real-time traffic signals to guide trajectory proposal generation under varied intersection configurations. Second, a driving strategy awareness mechanism estimates the joint distribution of maneuver strategies by integrating spatial priors of intersection areas with dynamic vehicle states, enabling coverage of the full set of feasible maneuvers. Third, a spatial-temporal-mode attention network models multi-agent interactions to refine and adjust joint trajectory outputs.Finally, I2XTraj is evaluated on two real-world datasets of signalized intersections, the V2X-Seq and the SinD drone dataset. In both single-infrastructure and online collaborative scenarios, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods by over 30\% on V2X-Seq and 15\% on SinD, demonstrating strong generalizability and robustness.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

In many real-world scenarios, rewards extrinsic to the agent are extremely sparse, or absent altogether. In such cases, curiosity can serve as an intrinsic reward signal to enable the agent to explore its environment and learn skills that might be useful later in its life. We formulate curiosity as the error in an agent's ability to predict the consequence of its own actions in a visual feature space learned by a self-supervised inverse dynamics model. Our formulation scales to high-dimensional continuous state spaces like images, bypasses the difficulties of directly predicting pixels, and, critically, ignores the aspects of the environment that cannot affect the agent. The proposed approach is evaluated in two environments: VizDoom and Super Mario Bros. Three broad settings are investigated: 1) sparse extrinsic reward, where curiosity allows for far fewer interactions with the environment to reach the goal; 2) exploration with no extrinsic reward, where curiosity pushes the agent to explore more efficiently; and 3) generalization to unseen scenarios (e.g. new levels of the same game) where the knowledge gained from earlier experience helps the agent explore new places much faster than starting from scratch. Demo video and code available at https://pathak22.github.io/noreward-rl/

Numerous models have been developed for scanpath and saliency prediction, which are typically trained on scanpaths, which model eye movement as a sequence of discrete fixation points connected by saccades, while the rich information contained in the raw trajectories is often discarded. Moreover, most existing approaches fail to capture the variability observed among human subjects viewing the same image. They generally predict a single scanpath of fixed, pre-defined length, which conflicts with the inherent diversity and stochastic nature of real-world visual attention. To address these challenges, we propose DiffEye, a diffusion-based training framework designed to model continuous and diverse eye movement trajectories during free viewing of natural images. Our method builds on a diffusion model conditioned on visual stimuli and introduces a novel component, namely Corresponding Positional Embedding (CPE), which aligns spatial gaze information with the patch-based semantic features of the visual input. By leveraging raw eye-tracking trajectories rather than relying on scanpaths, DiffEye captures the inherent variability in human gaze behavior and generates high-quality, realistic eye movement patterns, despite being trained on a comparatively small dataset. The generated trajectories can also be converted into scanpaths and saliency maps, resulting in outputs that more accurately reflect the distribution of human visual attention. DiffEye is the first method to tackle this task on natural images using a diffusion model while fully leveraging the richness of raw eye-tracking data. Our extensive evaluation shows that DiffEye not only achieves state-of-the-art performance in scanpath generation but also enables, for the first time, the generation of continuous eye movement trajectories. Project webpage: https://diff-eye.github.io/

Standard next-token prediction (NTP) supervises language models solely through discrete labels in the output logit space. We argue that this sparse one-hot supervision leaves the latent representation space under-constrained, allowing hidden states to drift into degenerate and anisotropic configurations that can limit generalization. To address this issue, we propose Next Implicit Token Prediction (NITP), which augments discrete prediction with dense continuous supervision directly in the representation space. NITP trains the model to predict the implicit semantic content of the next token, using shallow-layer representations from the same model as stable self-supervised targets. We provide theoretical analysis showing that NITP regularizes the optimization landscape by mitigating under-constrained degrees of freedom and encouraging a compact, structured representation geometry. Empirically, across dense and MoE models ranging from 0.5B to 9B parameters, NITP consistently improves downstream performance with negligible computational overhead. On a 9B MoE model, NITP achieves a 5.7% absolute improvement on MMLU-Pro, along with gains of 6.4% on C3 and 4.3% on CommonsenseQA, with approximately 2% additional training FLOPs and no additional inference cost. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/aHapBean/NITP.

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides a dense view of daily metabolic physiology, yet existing generic time-series and CGM-specific foundation models often encode glucose traces as entangled single-stream sequences, leaving the distinct temporal structure of glycemic dynamics only implicitly modeled. We present GlucoFM, a lightweight CGM foundation model that aligns irregular recordings to a 24-hour chronological grid, preserves observation masks, and decomposes glucose dynamics into slow physiological state and transient event streams, capturing low-frequency glycemic baselines and short-term deviations that may reflect acute physiological responses or sensor artifacts. GlucoFM is pretrained on 109,066 hours of unlabeled CGM recordings from 477 subjects with two complementary objectives: masked contextual latent prediction over fused daily representations and temporal dynamics prediction over state and event streams. Across four diverse cohorts and seven clinical prediction tasks, GlucoFM achieves the strongest subject-disjoint linear-probing performance among evaluated baselines, improving average PR-AUC by 4.1 points over the best CGM-specific foundation model. Its gains are most pronounced on core metabolic outcomes, leading PR-AUC on all diabetes-risk and β-cell dysfunction tasks and on 3 of 4 insulin-resistance tasks. GlucoFM also achieves the best overall cross-dataset transfer performance and strong few-shot adaptation among evaluated methods, and consistent gains when aggregating multiple days for subject-level prediction, highlighting physiology-aware decomposition as an effective inductive bias for transferable CGM representation learning.

Foundation models offer a promising route to compress multi-modal physiological signals into compact representations of human health, with broad applications across sleep medicine, cardiology, neurology and other healthcare domains. Existing models have typically been trained with masked-reconstruction or contrastive objectives. However, masked reconstruction may be poorly suited to the stochastic nature of these signals, while contrastive approaches rely on positive-pair definitions despite the semantic invariances of physiological signals being poorly understood. In this work, we show that next-token prediction is a simple and scalable alternative. We develop Hypnos, a multi-modal sleep foundation model trained using eight different sensing modalities (e.g. EEG, ECG, respiratory signals) drawn from over 20,000 overnight polysomnography recordings. We tokenize each modality into streams of discrete tokens using residual vector quantization, then train a large auto-regressive RQ-Transformer to jointly predict the next token across all modalities in parallel. After training, Hypnos can be applied to continuous streams of sensor data from any subset of supported modalities, generating embeddings for downstream tasks. Across a range of benchmarks, Hypnos significantly outperforms existing foundation models. In sleep stage classification, we match the performance of strong supervised baselines on held-out test sets whilst using \(100\times\) less labelled data. Hypnos even generalises to daytime physiology, surpassing a dedicated ECG foundation model at detecting atrial fibrillation. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a strong self-supervised objective for representation learning from multi-modal physiological signals.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched. Unlike in standard regression tasks, survival prediction models must account for censored data. Standard TFMs cannot handle natively censored data, leading to biased and inaccurate predictions, making them unsuitable for real-world applications. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose SurvPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN), for survival prediction tasks. We pretrain SurvPFN on millions of synthetic survival prediction tasks to learn survival via distributional regression that accounts for censored data. SurvPFN works by (1) generating data with Weibull event times and a non-informative censoring mechanism; (2) integrating a censored event indicator; and (3) minimizing a censored negative log-likelihood. On SurvSet, a collection of real-world survival tasks, SurvPFN is highly competitive with classical and deep survival baselines without per-dataset fitting, a survival-specific architecture, or feature engineering. We show that survival can be treated as a continuous-time distributional regression problem with censored loss, unlocking the power of PFNs for time-to-event predictions.

The systemic, metabolic, lifestyle factors have established associations with Alzheimer's Disease (AD) through epidemiologic and AD-specific biomarker studies. Whether colored fundus photography (CFP) contains retinal structural signatures corresponding to these AD-related risk domains remains unclear. To determine whether deep learning (DL) models can predict 12 AD-related risk factors from CFP and to characterize the retinal structures underlying these predictions, thereby assessing whether CFP reflects pathways to AD vulnerability. Using 62,876 CFPs from 44,501 unique participants from the UK Biobank, DL models were trained to predict 12 factors linked to AD incidence: 6 categorical (sex, smoking, sleeplessness, economic status, alcohol use, depression) and 6 continuous (age, age at completing education, BMI, systolic, diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c). Model performance, model saliency, and saliency-derived scores (CAM-Score) were evaluated and compared to retinal morphometry. The scores were also compared between incident-AD cases (average 8.55 years before onset) and matched controls. Performance of DL ranged from AUROC= 0.5654-0.9480 for categorical and R2=-0.0291-0.7620 for continuous factors, outperforming most of the morphometry-machine learning models. Saliency-based score consistently highlighted biologically meaningful regions, particularly the optic nerve head and retinal vasculature. It also aligned with present morphometric variations. Several saliency-based scores differed significantly between incident AD and matched controls, suggesting potential overlap between retinal correlates of risk factors and preclinical AD-associated changes. CFP encodes retinal signatures linked to AD risk factors. Although not diagnostic, DL-derived retinal representations may uncover biologically meaningful risk-related structural changes mirroring the potential AD vulnerability.

In the physical world we inhabit, space and time are fundamentally continuous. However, existing machine learning paradigms for world modeling are largely confined to discrete-time prediction, thereby exhibiting significant inefficiency in capturing the dynamics of physical world. We introduce Physical-Time Flow (PT-Flow), a novel approach that learns a continuous latent velocity field operating in physical time. Crucially, the underlying dynamics of sequential data are parameterized by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) embedded in a well-structured representation space. Under this paradigm, the prediction of future can be recast as temporal integration via an ODE solver in the compressed latent space. Building upon PT-Flow, we construct ODEWorld, a continuous-time latent world model that is both efficient and versatile. By extracting time-variant features and enforcing ODE properties on both the dynamical representation space and the latent velocity field, ODEWorld effectively addresses the long-standing representation collapse issue in latent world model literature. This also enables high-quality image reconstruction even after long-horizon prediction. Moreover, its continuous nature allows for arbitrary temporal resolution and even backward prediction, which is impossible for most discrete-time models. Lastly, ODEWorld can provide rich planning-oriented information to facilitate downstream policy learning. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that ODEWorld successfully reconciles planning-conducive dynamics abstraction with visual realism, excelling in both video generation and robotic control. https://dstate.github.io/odeworld_website/{Project Website}.

Existing autonomous-driving world models typically perform dense prediction of future videos, occupancy states, BEV representations, or agent motion. We argue that planning need not reconstruct the complete future world, but only focus on scene features that affect future ego action. Based on this perspective, we propose Auto-JEPA, an action-oriented latent world model that learns continuous future driving intent through joint-embedding prediction. Given visual observations, egomotion history, and navigation commands, Auto-JEPA predicts an intent embedding aligned with the latent representation of the future ego trajectory. The predicted intent retrieves executable trajectories from a fixed trajectory memory, which are then ranked by a scene-conditioned candidate selection module. Auto-JEPA keeps the visual encoder frozen, requires no explicit perception annotations, and uses no learned trajectory generator. By optimizing only task-specific modules for trajectory representation, intent prediction, and candidate selection, Auto-JEPA achieves 91.3 PDMS on NAVSIM v1 and 89.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2. Semantic occlusion experiments show that masking dynamic-agent regions induces an average intent change 2.97x that of equal-area random masking. Moreover, occluding vehicles that affect future driving substantially changes the predicted intent and selected trajectory, whereas both remain essentially unchanged when non-influential vehicles are occluded. These results show that future-intent prediction encourages the model to focus on planning-relevant visual features and supports high-quality planning without dense future-world modeling.

Text-to-audio (TTA) generation aims to synthesize realistic audio that faithfully reflects natural-language descriptions. Most TTA systems adopt a two-stage latent paradigm: an audio tokenizer is optimized for reconstruction and then frozen, after which a generative model is trained in the resulting latent space. However, reconstruction-oriented representations may be suboptimal for generation, motivating joint representation and generative learning. To this end, we introduce Unite-Audio, to our knowledge, is the first to jointly learn continuous audio representations and latent flow matching for TTA. By coupling reconstruction with self-supervised generative prediction, Unite-Audio allows the generative objective to directly shape the latent space rather than treating it as a fixed intermediate representation. We further employ Flow-GRPO post-training to improve text-conditioned generation. Experiments show competitive TTA performance with a compact latent flow model, while ablation studies confirm the benefit of jointly learning the audio representation and generative model. Audio samples are available at https://runwushi.github.io/Unite-Audio.

Generative modeling of graph-structured data is crucial for tasks ranging from drug discovery to social network simulation. Among these models, denoising diffusion models have achieved great success in graph generation by learning to progressively reverse a process that adds noise to the original graph. However, the standard noise-prediction approach of diffusion models is suboptimal for graph data. The goal for a graph generative model is to learn the clean graphs' topological properties, such as connectivity and degree distribution. Because a diffusion model that predicts noise does not explicitly learn these topological properties, it is challenging for the model to output graphs with the desired structural statistics. To address this challenge, we introduce Direct Graph Flow Matching (DiGFM), a novel graph transformer model guided by two goals: predict clean graphs and improve sampling efficiency. Distinct from the prevailing diffusion approach, DiGFM employs a continuous flow-matching paradigm and integrates direct graph prediction. Specifically, DiGFM maps the prior noise distribution to the clean graph distribution via a multi-step process: the model repeatedly predicts the underlying clean graph, and a transformation is employed to convert the model output to the velocity vector that points in the direction toward the clean graph distribution. This design enables DiGFM to generate high-quality samples using only 2.5% to 15.6% of the steps required by diffusion-based models, which leads to a 5.3x to 257x speedup in wall-clock inference time. Experiments demonstrate that DiGFM outperforms or matches prior state-of-the-art models across general graph benchmarks and molecular datasets, generating graphs with strong adherence to ground-truth structural statistics at significantly faster inference speeds.

The DC Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) problem is fundamental to power system operations, requiring rapid solutions for real-time grid management. While traditional optimization solvers provide optimal solutions, their computational cost becomes prohibitive for large-scale systems requiring frequent recalculations. Machine learning approaches offer promise for acceleration but often struggle with constraint satisfaction and cost optimality. We present a novel two-stage learning framework that combines physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with Continuous Flow Matching (CFM) for solving DC-OPF problems. Our approach embeds fundamental physical principles--including economic dispatch optimality conditions, Kirchhoff's laws, and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) complementarity conditions--directly into the training objectives. The first stage trains a GNN to produce feasible initial solutions by learning from physics-informed losses that encode power system constraints. The second stage employs CFM, a simulation-free continuous normalizing flow technique, to refine these solutions toward optimality through learned vector field regression. Evaluated on the IEEE 30-bus system across five load scenarios ranging from 70\% to 130\% nominal load, our method achieves near-optimal solutions with cost gaps below 0.1\% for nominal loads and below 3\% for extreme conditions, while maintaining 100\% feasibility. Our framework bridges the gap between fast but approximate neural network predictions and optimal but slow numerical solvers, offering a practical solution for modern power systems with high renewable penetration requiring frequent dispatch updates.

Dense prediction tasks, such as semantic segmentation, depth estimation, and surface normal prediction, can be easily formulated as per-pixel classification (discrete outputs) or regression (continuous outputs). This per-pixel prediction paradigm has remained popular due to the prevalence of fully convolutional networks. However, on the recent frontier of segmentation task, the community has been witnessing a shift of paradigm from per-pixel prediction to cluster-prediction with the emergence of transformer architectures, particularly the mask transformers, which directly predicts a label for a mask instead of a pixel. Despite this shift, methods based on the per-pixel prediction paradigm still dominate the benchmarks on the other dense prediction tasks that require continuous outputs, such as depth estimation and surface normal prediction. Motivated by the success of DORN and AdaBins in depth estimation, achieved by discretizing the continuous output space, we propose to generalize the cluster-prediction based method to general dense prediction tasks. This allows us to unify dense prediction tasks with the mask transformer framework. Remarkably, the resulting model PolyMaX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks of NYUD-v2 dataset. We hope our simple yet effective design can inspire more research on exploiting mask transformers for more dense prediction tasks. Code and model will be made available.

Diffusion models are a new class of generative models, and have dramatically promoted image generation with unprecedented quality and diversity. Existing diffusion models mainly try to reconstruct input image from a corrupted one with a pixel-wise or feature-wise constraint along spatial axes. However, such point-based reconstruction may fail to make each predicted pixel/feature fully preserve its neighborhood context, impairing diffusion-based image synthesis. As a powerful source of automatic supervisory signal, context has been well studied for learning representations. Inspired by this, we for the first time propose ConPreDiff to improve diffusion-based image synthesis with context prediction. We explicitly reinforce each point to predict its neighborhood context (i.e., multi-stride features/tokens/pixels) with a context decoder at the end of diffusion denoising blocks in training stage, and remove the decoder for inference. In this way, each point can better reconstruct itself by preserving its semantic connections with neighborhood context. This new paradigm of ConPreDiff can generalize to arbitrary discrete and continuous diffusion backbones without introducing extra parameters in sampling procedure. Extensive experiments are conducted on unconditional image generation, text-to-image generation and image inpainting tasks. Our ConPreDiff consistently outperforms previous methods and achieves a new SOTA text-to-image generation results on MS-COCO, with a zero-shot FID score of 6.21.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

In this paper, we propose a unified framework that leverages a single pretrained LLM for Motion-related Multimodal Generation, referred to as MoMug. MoMug integrates diffusion-based continuous motion generation with the model's inherent autoregressive discrete text prediction capabilities by fine-tuning a pretrained LLM. This enables seamless switching between continuous motion output and discrete text token prediction within a single model architecture, effectively combining the strengths of both diffusion- and LLM-based approaches. Experimental results show that, compared to the most recent LLM-based baseline, MoMug improves FID by 38% and mean accuracy across seven metrics by 16.61% on the text-to-motion task. Additionally, it improves mean accuracy across eight metrics by 8.44% on the text-to-motion task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach to integrate diffusion- and LLM-based generation within a single model for motion-related multimodal tasks while maintaining low training costs. This establishes a foundation for future advancements in motion-related generation, paving the way for high-quality yet cost-efficient motion synthesis.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Autonomous agents driven by Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized reasoning and problem-solving but remain static after training, unable to grow with experience as intelligent beings do during deployment. We introduce Forward Learning with EXperience (FLEX), a gradient-free learning paradigm that enables LLM agents to continuously evolve through accumulated experience. Specifically, FLEX cultivates scalable and inheritable evolution by constructing a structured experience library through continual reflection on successes and failures during interaction with the environment. FLEX delivers substantial improvements on mathematical reasoning, chemical retrosynthesis, and protein fitness prediction (up to 23% on AIME25, 10% on USPTO50k, and 14% on ProteinGym). We further identify a clear scaling law of experiential growth and the phenomenon of experience inheritance across agents, marking a step toward scalable and inheritable continuous agent evolution. Project Page: https://flex-gensi-thuair.github.io.

Can we turn a video prediction model into a robot policy? Videos, including those of humans or teleoperated robots, capture rich physical interactions. However, most of them lack labeled actions, which limits their use in robot learning. We present Video Prediction for Robot Actions (ViPRA), a simple pretraining-finetuning framework that learns continuous robot control from these actionless videos. Instead of directly predicting actions, we train a video-language model to predict both future visual observations and motion-centric latent actions, which serve as intermediate representations of scene dynamics. We train these latent actions using perceptual losses and optical flow consistency to ensure they reflect physically grounded behavior. For downstream control, we introduce a chunked flow matching decoder that maps latent actions to robot-specific continuous action sequences, using only 100 to 200 teleoperated demonstrations. This approach avoids expensive action annotation, supports generalization across embodiments, and enables smooth, high-frequency continuous control upto 22 Hz via chunked action decoding. Unlike prior latent action works that treat pretraining as autoregressive policy learning, explicitly models both what changes and how. Our method outperforms strong baselines, with a 16% gain on the SIMPLER benchmark and a 13% improvement across real world manipulation tasks. We will release models and code at https://vipra-project.github.io

This paper presents advancements in automated early-stage prediction of the success of reprogramming human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) as a potential source for regenerative cell therapies.The minuscule success rate of iPSC-reprogramming of around 0.01% to 0.1% makes it labor-intensive, time-consuming, and exorbitantly expensive to generate a stable iPSC line. Since that requires culturing of millions of cells and intense biological scrutiny of multiple clones to identify a single optimal clone. The ability to reliably predict which cells are likely to establish as an optimal iPSC line at an early stage of pluripotency would therefore be ground-breaking in rendering this a practical and cost-effective approach to personalized medicine. Temporal information about changes in cellular appearance over time is crucial for predicting its future growth outcomes. In order to generate this data, we first performed continuous time-lapse imaging of iPSCs in culture using an ultra-high resolution microscope. We then annotated the locations and identities of cells in late-stage images where reliable manual identification is possible. Next, we propagated these labels backwards in time using a semi-automated tracking system to obtain labels for early stages of growth. Finally, we used this data to train deep neural networks to perform automatic cell segmentation and classification. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/abhineet123/ipsc_prediction.

Learning useful representations for continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) is challenging, due to the concurrent need to span long node interaction histories and grasp nuanced temporal details. In particular, two problems emerge: (1) Encoding longer histories requires more computational resources, making it crucial for CTDG models to maintain low computational complexity to ensure efficiency; (2) Meanwhile, more powerful models are needed to identify and select the most critical temporal information within the extended context provided by longer histories. To address these problems, we propose a CTDG representation learning model named DyGMamba, originating from the popular Mamba state space model (SSM). DyGMamba first leverages a node-level SSM to encode the sequence of historical node interactions. Another time-level SSM is then employed to exploit the temporal patterns hidden in the historical graph, where its output is used to dynamically select the critical information from the interaction history. We validate DyGMamba experimentally on the dynamic link prediction task. The results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art in most cases. DyGMamba also maintains high efficiency in terms of computational resources, making it possible to capture long temporal dependencies with a limited computation budget.

Learning effective numerical representations, or embeddings, of programs is a fundamental prerequisite for applying machine learning to automate and enhance compiler optimization. Prevailing paradigms, however, present a dilemma. Static representations, derived from source code or intermediate representation (IR), are efficient and deterministic but offer limited insight into how a program will behave or evolve under complex code transformations. Conversely, dynamic representations, which rely on runtime profiling, provide profound insights into performance bottlenecks but are often impractical for large-scale tasks due to prohibitive overhead and inherent non-determinism. This paper transcends this trade-off by proposing a novel quasi-dynamic framework for program representation. The core insight is to model a program's optimization sensitivity. We introduce the Program Behavior Spectrum, a new representation generated by probing a program's IR with a diverse set of optimization sequences and quantifying the resulting changes in its static features. To effectively encode this high-dimensional, continuous spectrum, we pioneer a compositional learning approach. Product Quantization is employed to discretize the continuous reaction vectors into structured, compositional sub-words. Subsequently, a multi-task Transformer model, termed PQ-BERT, is pre-trained to learn the deep contextual grammar of these behavioral codes. Comprehensive experiments on two representative compiler optimization tasks -- Best Pass Prediction and -Oz Benefit Prediction -- demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art static baselines. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Panhaolin2001/PREP/.

Neural operator surrogates for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) conventionally employ autoregressive prediction schemes, which accumulate error over long rollouts and require uniform temporal discretization. We introduce the Continuous Flow Operator (CFO), a framework that learns continuous-time PDE dynamics without the computational burden of standard continuous approaches, e.g., neural ODE. The key insight is repurposing flow matching to directly learn the right-hand side of PDEs without backpropagating through ODE solvers. CFO fits temporal splines to trajectory data, using finite-difference estimates of time derivatives at knots to construct probability paths whose velocities closely approximate the true PDE dynamics. A neural operator is then trained via flow matching to predict these analytic velocity fields. This approach is inherently time-resolution invariant: training accepts trajectories sampled on arbitrary, non-uniform time grids while inference queries solutions at any temporal resolution through ODE integration. Across four benchmarks (Lorenz, 1D Burgers, 2D diffusion-reaction, 2D shallow water), CFO demonstrates superior long-horizon stability and remarkable data efficiency. CFO trained on only 25% of irregularly subsampled time points outperforms autoregressive baselines trained on complete data, with relative error reductions up to 87%. Despite requiring numerical integration at inference, CFO achieves competitive efficiency, outperforming autoregressive baselines using only 50% of their function evaluations, while uniquely enabling reverse-time inference and arbitrary temporal querying.

Autoregressive visual generation models typically rely on tokenizers to compress images into tokens that can be predicted sequentially. A fundamental dilemma exists in token representation: discrete tokens enable straightforward modeling with standard cross-entropy loss, but suffer from information loss and tokenizer training instability; continuous tokens better preserve visual details, but require complex distribution modeling, complicating the generation pipeline. In this paper, we propose TokenBridge, which bridges this gap by maintaining the strong representation capacity of continuous tokens while preserving the modeling simplicity of discrete tokens. To achieve this, we decouple discretization from the tokenizer training process through post-training quantization that directly obtains discrete tokens from continuous representations. Specifically, we introduce a dimension-wise quantization strategy that independently discretizes each feature dimension, paired with a lightweight autoregressive prediction mechanism that efficiently model the resulting large token space. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves reconstruction and generation quality on par with continuous methods while using standard categorical prediction. This work demonstrates that bridging discrete and continuous paradigms can effectively harness the strengths of both approaches, providing a promising direction for high-quality visual generation with simple autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://yuqingwang1029.github.io/TokenBridge.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Dynamic model pruning is a recent direction that allows for the inference of a different sub-network for each input sample during deployment. However, current dynamic methods rely on learning a continuous channel gating through regularization by inducing sparsity loss. This formulation introduces complexity in balancing different losses (e.g task loss, regularization loss). In addition, regularization based methods lack transparent tradeoff hyperparameter selection to realize a computational budget. Our contribution is two-fold: 1) decoupled task and pruning losses. 2) Simple hyperparameter selection that enables FLOPs reduction estimation before training. Inspired by the Hebbian theory in Neuroscience: "neurons that fire together wire together", we propose to predict a mask to process k filters in a layer based on the activation of its previous layer. We pose the problem as a self-supervised binary classification problem. Each mask predictor module is trained to predict if the log-likelihood for each filter in the current layer belongs to the top-k activated filters. The value k is dynamically estimated for each input based on a novel criterion using the mass of heatmaps. We show experiments on several neural architectures, such as VGG, ResNet and MobileNet on CIFAR and ImageNet datasets. On CIFAR, we reach similar accuracy to SOTA methods with 15% and 24% higher FLOPs reduction. Similarly in ImageNet, we achieve lower drop in accuracy with up to 13% improvement in FLOPs reduction.

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

Autoregressive models have shown remarkable success in image generation by adapting sequential prediction techniques from language modeling. However, applying these approaches to images requires discretizing continuous pixel data through vector quantization methods like VQ-VAE. To alleviate the quantization errors that existed in VQ-VAE, recent works tend to use larger codebooks. However, this will accordingly expand vocabulary size, complicating the autoregressive modeling task. This paper aims to find a way to enjoy the benefits of large codebooks without making autoregressive modeling more difficult. Through empirical investigation, we discover that tokens with similar codeword representations produce similar effects on the final generated image, revealing significant redundancy in large codebooks. Based on this insight, we propose to predict tokens from coarse to fine (CTF), realized by assigning the same coarse label for similar tokens. Our framework consists of two stages: (1) an autoregressive model that sequentially predicts coarse labels for each token in the sequence, and (2) an auxiliary model that simultaneously predicts fine-grained labels for all tokens conditioned on their coarse labels. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate our method's superior performance, achieving an average improvement of 59 points in Inception Score compared to baselines. Notably, despite adding an inference step, our approach achieves faster sampling speeds.

Visual tokenization remains a core challenge in unifying visual understanding and generation within the autoregressive paradigm. Existing methods typically employ tokenizers in discrete latent spaces to align with the tokens from large language models, where the quantization errors can limit semantic expressiveness and degrade the capability of vision-language understanding. To address this, we introduce MingTok, a new family of visual tokenizers with a continuous latent space, for unified autoregressive generation and understanding. While understanding tasks favor discriminative high-dimensional features, generation tasks prefer compact low-level codes. Thus, to reconcile these competing demands, MingTok adopts a three-stage sequential architecture involving low-level encoding, semantic expansion, and visual reconstruction. Built on top of it, Ming-UniVision eliminates the need for task-specific visual representations, and unifies diverse vision-language tasks under a single autoregrsssive prediction paradigm. By formulating both understanding and generation as next-token prediction in a shared continuous space, it seamlessly supports multi-round, in-context tasks such as iterative understanding, generation and editing. Empirically, we find that using a unified continuous visual representation reconciles the competing requirements on the tokenizers by the understanding and generation tasks, thereby leading to state-of-the-art level performance across both domains. We hope our findings will facilitate unified visual tokenization in the continuous domain. Inference code and model weights are released to benefit community.

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML techniques this hybrid model leverages quantum properties like superposition and entanglement to achieve better accuracy and efficiency classical and QML models are compared based on training time accuracy and scalability results show that QML models offer competitive training times and improved prediction accuracy this research signifies a step towards utilizing quantum technologies for climate change adaptation we emphasize collaboration and continuous innovation to implement this model in real-world flood management ultimately enhancing global resilience against floods

The remarkable success of Chain-of-Thought (CoT), which enhances performance by scaling generation steps at test-time, inspires us to ask: can we leverage a similar scaling of computational steps during pretraining to improve the generation of each individual token? To address this, we propose a novel pre-training methodology: Pretraining Language Models with Latent Thoughts (PonderLM-2). Our approach pretrains a language model (LM) to first generate an intermediate latent thought-the last hidden state of the current position-which is then used as input to predict the actual subsequent token. This additional computational step enables the LM to refine its prediction within unconstrained continuous space. Our experiments demonstrate that, at an identical inference cost, a LM that generates one additional latent thought per token outperforms a standard model with double the parameters. For instance, our PonderLM-2-Pythia-1.4B, pretrained on 300B tokens from the Pile, significantly surpasses the vanilla Pythia-2.8B trained on the same data on both language modeling and a range of general downstream tasks. Furthermore, increasing the number of latent thoughts generated before each actual token-forming a chain analogous to CoT-consistently improves the model's performance.

We present BYOL-Explore, a conceptually simple yet general approach for curiosity-driven exploration in visually-complex environments. BYOL-Explore learns a world representation, the world dynamics, and an exploration policy all-together by optimizing a single prediction loss in the latent space with no additional auxiliary objective. We show that BYOL-Explore is effective in DM-HARD-8, a challenging partially-observable continuous-action hard-exploration benchmark with visually-rich 3-D environments. On this benchmark, we solve the majority of the tasks purely through augmenting the extrinsic reward with BYOL-Explore s intrinsic reward, whereas prior work could only get off the ground with human demonstrations. As further evidence of the generality of BYOL-Explore, we show that it achieves superhuman performance on the ten hardest exploration games in Atari while having a much simpler design than other competitive agents.

Recent progress in large models has led to significant advances in unified multimodal generation and understanding. However, the development of models that unify motion-language generation and understanding remains largely underexplored. Existing approaches often fine-tune large language models (LLMs) on paired motion-text data, which can result in catastrophic forgetting of linguistic capabilities due to the limited scale of available text-motion pairs. Furthermore, prior methods typically convert motion into discrete representations via quantization to integrate with language models, introducing substantial jitter artifacts from discrete tokenization. To address these challenges, we propose LLaMo, a unified framework that extends pretrained LLMs through a modality-specific Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) architecture. This design inherently preserves the language understanding of the base model while enabling scalable multimodal adaptation. We encode human motion into a causal continuous latent space and maintain the next-token prediction paradigm in the decoder-only backbone through a lightweight flow-matching head, allowing for streaming motion generation in real-time (>30 FPS). Leveraging the comprehensive language understanding of pretrained LLMs and large-scale motion-text pretraining, our experiments demonstrate that LLaMo achieves high-fidelity text-to-motion generation and motion-to-text captioning in general settings, especially zero-shot motion generation, marking a significant step towards a general unified motion-language large model.

MRI reconstruction is an inherently ill-posed inverse problem, since incomplete measurements admit many plausible solutions. This ambiguity becomes more severe under high acceleration, where pixel-domain continuous predictors tend to average over feasible reconstructions and suppress high-frequency anatomy. We address this limitation by moving reconstruction to discrete multi-scale latent space and posing it as autoregressive next-acceleration-scale prediction. Leveraging discrete priors proven effective in visual autoregressive modeling, our method restricts the solution to compact sequences of codebook tokens, enabling sharp reconstructions even from extremely sparse measurements. This discrete autoregressive formulation also aligns naturally with modern large language model post-training techniques. Building on this observation, we introduce on-policy privileged information distillation for visual autoregressive modeling, where a teacher is provided training only privileged context that is unavailable at inference, in our case fully sampled acquisitions, and supervises a student trained on its own rollouts, leading to consistent reconstruction gains. Through extensive experiments on the fastMRI benchmark, we show that our approach delivers improved reconstruction performance across diverse sampling patterns under extreme undersampling. Project website is https://yilmazkorkmaz1.github.io/discrete-mri-reconstruction-opd/{here}.

We present a novel approach for long-term human trajectory prediction in indoor human-centric environments, which is essential for long-horizon robot planning in these environments. State-of-the-art human trajectory prediction methods are limited by their focus on collision avoidance and short-term planning, and their inability to model complex interactions of humans with the environment. In contrast, our approach overcomes these limitations by predicting sequences of human interactions with the environment and using this information to guide trajectory predictions over a horizon of up to 60s. We leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict interactions with the environment by conditioning the LLM prediction on rich contextual information about the scene. This information is given as a 3D Dynamic Scene Graph that encodes the geometry, semantics, and traversability of the environment into a hierarchical representation. We then ground these interaction sequences into multi-modal spatio-temporal distributions over human positions using a probabilistic approach based on continuous-time Markov Chains. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a new semi-synthetic dataset of long-term human trajectories in complex indoor environments, which also includes annotations of human-object interactions. We show in thorough experimental evaluations that our approach achieves a 54% lower average negative log-likelihood and a 26.5% lower Best-of-20 displacement error compared to the best non-privileged (i.e., evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on the dataset) baselines for a time horizon of 60s.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Touch is fundamental to dexterous manipulation, yet most egocentric human data increasingly used for robot learning lacks tactile information. Directly collecting large-scale tactile data is challenging due to sensor limitations, while human video data is abundant, contact-rich, and easily scalable. This motivates a natural question: can tactile signals be inferred purely from vision? To address this, we introduce EgoTac, a generalizable model that predicts rich tactile information directly from egocentric human videos. EgoTac is trained on a unified corpus of over 5.7M image-tactile pairs, covering both continuous force measurements and binary contacts. By learning from this diverse dataset, EgoTac captures nuanced touch dynamics across varied interactions. Experiments demonstrate strong performance: in-domain prediction achieves an average force error below 0.06N. On out-of-domain contact prediction benchmarks, EgoTac consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art contact estimator. It also captures the rise and fall patterns of real tactile data and enables zero-shot predictions on unconstrained real-world videos. Scaling analyses further reveal that both data diversity and volume improve performance steadily. Overall, EgoTac provides a scalable pathway to extract tactile priors from egocentric human videos, enabling broadly applicable tactile-aware robot learning.

Just-in-Time software defect prediction (JIT-SDP) plays a critical role in prioritizing risky code changes during code review and continuous integration. However, existing datasets often suffer from noisy labels and low precision in identifying bug-inducing commits. To address this, we present ReDef (Revert-based Defect dataset), a high-confidence benchmark of function-level modifications curated from 22 large-scale C/C++ projects. Defective cases are anchored by revert commits, while clean cases are validated through post-hoc history checks. Ambiguous instances are conservatively filtered out via a GPT-assisted triage process involving multiple votes and audits. This pipeline yields 3,164 defective and 10,268 clean modifications, offering substantially more reliable labels than prior resources. Beyond dataset construction, we provide a systematic evaluation of how Code Language Models (CLMs)-specifically CodeBERT, CodeT5+, UniXcoder, and Qwen2.5-reason about code modifications. We first investigate which input encodings most effectively expose change information under five different strategies. We then design four counterfactual perturbation strategies (e.g., swapping added/deleted blocks, inverting diff polarity) to serve as diagnostic probes. We posit that if models genuinely capture change semantics, such distortions should lead to a clear decline in predictive performance. Our results show that compact diff-style encodings consistently outperform whole-function formats across all CLMs, supported by rigorous statistical confirmation. However, under counterfactual tests, performance remains effectively stable, revealing that what appears to be robustness in fact reflects a reliance on superficial cues rather than true semantic understanding.

Efficiently compiling quantum operations remains a major bottleneck in scaling quantum computing. Today's state-of-the-art methods achieve low compilation error by combining search algorithms with gradient-based parameter optimization, but they incur long runtimes and require multiple calls to quantum hardware or expensive classical simulations, making their scaling prohibitive. Recently, machine-learning models have emerged as an alternative, though they are currently restricted to discrete gate sets. Here, we introduce a multimodal denoising diffusion model that simultaneously generates a circuit's structure and its continuous parameters for compiling a target unitary. It leverages two independent diffusion processes, one for discrete gate selection and one for parameter prediction. We benchmark the model over different experiments, analyzing the method's accuracy across varying qubit counts, circuit depths, and proportions of parameterized gates. Finally, by exploiting its rapid circuit generation, we create large datasets of circuits for particular operations and use these to extract valuable heuristics that can help us discover new insights into quantum circuit synthesis.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

Accurately predicting road networks from satellite images requires a global understanding of the network topology. We propose to capture such high-level information by introducing a graph-based framework that simulates the addition of sequences of graph edges using a reinforcement learning (RL) approach. In particular, given a partially generated graph associated with a satellite image, an RL agent nominates modifications that maximize a cumulative reward. As opposed to standard supervised techniques that tend to be more restricted to commonly used surrogate losses, these rewards can be based on various complex, potentially non-continuous, metrics of interest. This yields more power and flexibility to encode problem-dependent knowledge. Empirical results on several benchmark datasets demonstrate enhanced performance and increased high-level reasoning about the graph topology when using a tree-based search. We further highlight the superiority of our approach under substantial occlusions by introducing a new synthetic benchmark dataset for this task.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

LLM-based agents have demonstrated impressive zero-shot performance in vision-language navigation (VLN) task. However, existing LLM-based methods often focus only on solving high-level task planning by selecting nodes in predefined navigation graphs for movements, overlooking low-level control in navigation scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose AO-Planner, a novel Affordances-Oriented Planner for continuous VLN task. Our AO-Planner integrates various foundation models to achieve affordances-oriented low-level motion planning and high-level decision-making, both performed in a zero-shot setting. Specifically, we employ a Visual Affordances Prompting (VAP) approach, where the visible ground is segmented by SAM to provide navigational affordances, based on which the LLM selects potential candidate waypoints and plans low-level paths towards selected waypoints. We further propose a high-level PathAgent which marks planned paths into the image input and reasons the most probable path by comprehending all environmental information. Finally, we convert the selected path into 3D coordinates using camera intrinsic parameters and depth information, avoiding challenging 3D predictions for LLMs. Experiments on the challenging R2R-CE and RxR-CE datasets show that AO-Planner achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance (8.8% improvement on SPL). Our method can also serve as a data annotator to obtain pseudo-labels, distilling its waypoint prediction ability into a learning-based predictor. This new predictor does not require any waypoint data from the simulator and achieves 47% SR competing with supervised methods. We establish an effective connection between LLM and 3D world, presenting novel prospects for employing foundation models in low-level motion control.

Humans ponder before articulating complex sentence elements, enabling deeper cognitive processing through focused effort. In this work, we introduce this pondering process into language models by repeatedly invoking the forward process within a single token generation step. During pondering, instead of generating an actual token sampled from the prediction distribution, the model ponders by yielding a weighted sum of all token embeddings according to the predicted token distribution. The generated embedding is then fed back as input for another forward pass. We show that the model can learn to ponder in this way through self-supervised learning, without any human annotations. Our method is straightforward and can be seamlessly integrated with various existing language models. Experiments across three widely used open-source architectures-GPT-2, Pythia, and LLaMA-and extensive downstream task evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our method. For language modeling tasks, pondering language models achieve performance comparable to vanilla models with twice the number of parameters. On 9 downstream benchmarks, our pondering-enhanced Pythia models significantly outperform the official Pythia models. Notably, pondering-enhanced Pythia-1B is comparable to TinyLlama-1.1B, which is trained on 10 times more data. The code is available at https://github.com/LUMIA-Group/PonderingLM.

Predicting wildfire risk is a reasoning-intensive spatial problem that requires the integration of visual, climatic, and geographic factors to infer continuous risk maps. Existing methods lack the causal reasoning and multimodal understanding required for reliable generalization. We introduce FireScope-Bench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark that couples Sentinel-2 imagery and climate data with expert-defined risk rasters across the USA, and real wildfire events in Europe for cross-continental evaluation. Building on this dataset, we propose FireScope, a VLM-based reasoning-to-generation framework that learns from both reinforcement learning and visual supervision to predict risk rasters with complementary reasoning traces. When trained in the USA and tested in Europe, FireScope achieves substantial performance gains, while expert feedback and automated analysis confirm that its reasoning traces are faithful and semantically meaningful. Our findings demonstrate that reasoning can ground raster prediction models, improving both generalization and interpretability. To our knowledge, this is the first framework to (1) demonstrate that language-based reasoning can improve generalization in visual generation, (2) propose a high-resolution wildfire risk model that can be applied across continents, and (3) enable systematic studies of robust cross-continental generalization for multimodal fire risk models. We believe that FireScope-Bench has the potential to serve as a foundation for advancing reasoning-driven, interpretable and generalizable spatial modeling. Data and source code will be made publicly available.

Climate-vulnerable road networks require a paradigm shift from reactive, fix-on-failure repairs to predictive, decision-ready maintenance. This paper introduces ST-ResGAT, a novel Spatio-Temporal Residual Graph Attention Network that fuses residual graph-attention encoding with GRU temporal aggregation to forecast pavement deterioration. Engineered for resource-constrained deployment, the framework translates continuous Pavement Condition Index (PCI) forecasts directly into the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-compliant maintenance priorities. Using a real-world inspection dataset of 750 segments in Sylhet, Bangladesh (2021-2024), ST-ResGAT significantly outperforms traditional non-spatial machine learning baselines, achieving exceptional predictive fidelity (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 2.72). Crucially, ablation testing confirmed the mathematical necessity of modeling topological neighbor effects, proving that structural decay acts as a spatial contagion. Uniquely, we integrate GNNExplainer to unbox the model, demonstrating that its learned priorities align perfectly with established physical engineering theory. Furthermore, we quantify classification safety: achieving 85.5% exact ASTM class agreement and 100% adjacent-class containment, ensuring bounded, engineer-safe predictions. To connect model outputs to policy, we generate localized longitudinal maintenance profiles, perform climate stress-testing, and derive Pareto sustainability frontiers. ST-ResGAT therefore offers a practical, explainable, and sustainable blueprint for intelligent infrastructure management in high-risk, low-resource geological settings.

Nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are powerful tools for modeling real-world dynamical systems. However, propagating initial state uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics, especially when the ODE is unknown and learned from data, remains a major challenge. This paper introduces a novel continuum dynamics perspective for model learning that enables formal uncertainty propagation by constructing Taylor series approximations of probabilistic events. We establish sufficient conditions for the soundness of the approach and prove its asymptotic convergence. Empirical results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness, particularly when predicting rare events.