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Oct 16

Auditing Contextual Bias in Human Ball-Strike Calls Using KBO's Automated Umpiring Transition

This paper uses the Korean Baseball Organization's adoption of the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system to audit long-standing claims about contextual bias in human ball-strike calls. Using pitch-level KBO data from 2021 through the available portion of the 2026 season, we model called-strike probability for taken pitches near the strike-zone boundary, with 2022-2023 as the primary human-umpire baseline and ABS seasons (2024 and onward) as a diagnostic benchmark. The strongest evidence concerns count pressure. Relative to 0--0 counts, human umpires called substantially fewer strikes in two-strike counts and more strikes in hitter-ahead three-ball counts. Specifically, in the main 0.25-ft boundary band, 0--2 was associated with a -17.17 percentage-point effect and 3--0 with a +6.61 percentage-point effect. Under ABS, the corresponding effects were close to zero and did not survive false-discovery-rate correction. Game progression shows a smaller but coherent pattern as human calls were less strike-prone in early innings and more strike-prone in innings 7--9+, especially in late-close situations, while complete ABS seasons were essentially flat. Other suspected biases are weaker or more localized. Salary-based reputation proxies provide suggestive but proxy-sensitive evidence, and catcher identity shows human-period residual heterogeneity that disappears under ABS. Home-context evidence is mostly null at the umpire level, with one FDR-significant human-period exception and an exploratory umpire-team gap best treated as an audit lead. Overall, the results do not show that human umpires were biased everywhere. Instead, they map where the human strike zone was most context-sensitive, where evidence was weaker, and where common suspicions received little support.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 2

Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysis

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 10, 2014

OCRR: A Benchmark for Online Correction Recovery under Distribution Shift

Static benchmarks measure a model frozen at training time. Real systems face distribution shift: new categories, paraphrased queries, drift: and must recover online via user corrections. No existing benchmark measures recovery speed under correction streams. We introduce OCRR (Online Correction Recovery Rate): a benchmark that streams a corpus through a classification system, applies oracle or stochastic corrections to wrong predictions, and reports two curves: novel-class accuracy and original-distribution accuracy versus correction count. We evaluate the substrate alongside nine baseline algorithms from five families plus seven bounded-storage variants of the substrate for the Pareto sweep, including standard online-learning baselines (river), continual-learning methods (EWC, A-GEM, LwF), retrieval/parametric hybrids (kNN-LM), parameter-efficient fine-tuning of a 1.5 B-parameter encoder (LoRA on DeBERTa-v3-large), and a hash-chained append-only substrate (Substrate). On Banking77 and CLINC150, under oracle and sparse correction policies, the substrate is the only system that simultaneously recovers novel-class accuracy (88.7 +/- 2.9 %) and retains original-distribution accuracy (95.4 +/- 0.8 %) beating the next-best published continual-learning baseline by 32.6 percentage points at equal memory budget, and beating LoRA-on-DeBERTa-v3-large by 84.6 percentage points on retention. We further find that classification accuracy remains stable at 99 % even as approximate-nearest-neighbour recall@5 degrades from 0.69 to 0.23 across 10 k to 10 M corpus scales, suggesting the substrate's margin-band majority vote is robust to retrieval imperfection in a way that pure top-k recall metrics do not predict. Code and data are available at https://github.com/adriangrassi/ocrr-benchmark.

  • 1 authors
·
May 3

Inference Scaling scriptsizeFLaws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Evidence-Informed LLM Beliefs for Continual Scientific Discovery

Open-ended scientific discovery with large language models (LLMs) increasingly operates as a long-horizon loop of hypothesis search and verification, where a reward signal guides which hypotheses to test next. A notable recent example is AutoDiscovery, which uses "Bayesian surprise" - the belief shift an LLM undergoes after observing evidence for a hypothesis - as both a discovery metric and a reward for search. We first observe that AutoDiscovery treats surprisal as a static quantity, while surprisal in human reasoning is non-stationary - it is defined relative to beliefs that evolve with experience, a prerequisite for continual scientific discovery. We address this mismatch with evidence-informed LLM beliefs: priors updated with evidence from previous hypotheses to compute non-stationary surprisal for new hypotheses. We compare in-context belief-updating mechanisms and find that embedding-based retrieval-augmented generation over prior discoveries best anticipates eventual posteriors, identifying 37.5% of static surprisals as spurious. We then modify search to avoid these spurious rewards and prioritize hypotheses that remain surprising under non-stationary beliefs. Concretely, we introduce two complementary changes to the original search procedure: belief-update filtering and diversity maximization. Across five discovery domains, our method increases accumulated non-stationary surprisal by 30.62% on average compared to the original search procedure, demonstrating that continual scientific discovery with LLMs requires not only better belief measurement but also search procedures that avoid redundancy and encourage diversity.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27

Phantom Gains: Auditing Self-Improvement Against a Measured Null

Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-32 LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of 0.280. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain (p < 10^{-8}). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 19

Excess Separability: Nuisance-Controlled Residual-Stream Probing for Benchmark Contamination Detection

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 15

Examining False Positives under Inference Scaling for Mathematical Reasoning

Recent advancements in language models have led to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning across various benchmarks. However, most of these benchmarks rely on automatic evaluation methods that only compare final answers using heuristics, without verifying the underlying reasoning steps. This limitation results in false positive solutions, where models may produce correct final answers but with flawed deduction paths. In this paper, we systematically examine the prevalence of false positive solutions in mathematical problem solving for language models. We analyze the characteristics and extent of this issue across different open-source models, datasets of varying difficulty levels, and decoding strategies. Specifically, we explore how false positives influence the inference time scaling behavior of language models. Our experimental results reveal that: (1) false positive solutions persist across different models, datasets, and decoding methods, (2) sampling-based inference time scaling methods do not alleviate the problem, and (3) the pass@N evaluation metric is more susceptible to false positives, suggesting a significantly lower scaling ceiling than what automatic evaluations indicate. Additionally, we analyze specific instances of false positives and discuss potential limitations in self-improvement techniques and synthetic data generation under such conditions. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Wloner0809/False-Positives-in-Math.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 10, 2025

TruthRL: Incentivizing Truthful LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on factoid question answering, they are still prone to hallucination and untruthful responses, particularly when tasks demand information outside their parametric knowledge. Indeed, truthfulness requires more than accuracy -- models must also recognize uncertainty and abstain when unsure to avoid hallucinations. This presents a fundamental challenge for existing methods: approaches that optimize for accuracy often amplify hallucinations, while those that encourage abstention can become overly conservative, sacrificing correct answers. Both extremes ultimately compromise truthfulness. In this work, we present TruthRL, a general reinforcement learning (RL) framework that directly optimizes the truthfulness of LLMs. Specifically, we implement TruthRL using GRPO with a simple yet effective ternary reward that distinguishes correct answers, hallucinations, and abstentions. It incentivizes models to reduce hallucinations not only by providing correct responses, but also by enabling abstention when uncertain, thereby improving truthfulness. Extensive experiments across four knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that, compared to vanilla RL, TruthRL significantly reduces hallucinations by 28.9% and improves truthfulness by 21.1%, with consistent gains across various backbone models (e.g., Qwen, Llama) under both retrieval and non-retrieval setups. In-depth ablation study demonstrates that vanilla accuracy-driven methods, such as supervised fine-tuning or RL with a binary reward, struggle to balance factual correctness and uncertainty. In contrast, our proposed truthfulness-driven TruthRL achieves strong performance in both accuracy and truthfulness, underscoring the importance of learning objective design for developing truthful LLMs.

facebook AI at Meta
·
Sep 30, 2025 3

BARS-CTR: Open Benchmarking for Click-Through Rate Prediction

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task for many applications, as its accuracy has a direct impact on user experience and platform revenue. In recent years, CTR prediction has been widely studied in both academia and industry, resulting in a wide variety of CTR prediction models. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of standardized benchmarks and uniform evaluation protocols for CTR prediction research. This leads to non-reproducible or even inconsistent experimental results among existing studies, which largely limits the practical value and potential impact of their research. In this work, we aim to perform open benchmarking for CTR prediction and present a rigorous comparison of different models in a reproducible manner. To this end, we ran over 7,000 experiments for more than 12,000 GPU hours in total to re-evaluate 24 existing models on multiple datasets and settings. Surprisingly, our experiments show that with sufficient hyper-parameter search and model tuning, many deep models have smaller differences than expected. The results also reveal that making real progress on the modeling of CTR prediction is indeed a very challenging research task. We believe that our benchmarking work could not only allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of new models conveniently but also make them fairly compare with the state of the arts. We have publicly released the benchmarking code, evaluation protocols, and hyper-parameter settings of our work to promote reproducible research in this field.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 12, 2020

Compression Favors Consistency, Not Truth: When and Why Language Models Prefer Correct Information

Why do language models sometimes prefer correct statements even when trained on mixed-quality data? We introduce the Compression--Consistency Principle: next-token prediction favors hypotheses that allow shorter and more internally consistent descriptions of the training data. Truth bias emerges only when false alternatives are structurally harder to compress. We test this using small GPT-2-style character-level transformers (3.5M--86M parameters) on synthetic math corpora with controlled mixtures of correct and incorrect rules. In the random-error setting, models strongly prefer correct completions in paired evaluation: 83.1% accuracy at balanced data and 67.0% even when correct rules appear in only 10% of the corpus. Replacing random errors with a coherent but mathematically incorrect rule system largely eliminates the preference (near-chance accuracy). In a more natural-language-like synthetic world, the effect is weaker but still present (57.7%). Additional experiments show that embedding verification steps can restore preference for correctness even at small scale, while increasing the number of consistent rules produces a graded improvement in accuracy. Our results suggest that what appears as a "truth bias" is largely a side effect of compression pressure and preference for internal consistency, rather than an intrinsic drive toward truth. Full code and data are available at https://github.com/Rai220/compression-drives-truth.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12 2

Tracing LLM Reasoning Processes with Strategic Games: A Framework for Planning, Revision, and Resource-Constrained Decision Making

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 13, 2025

vstash: Local-First Hybrid Retrieval with Adaptive Fusion for LLM Agents

We present **vstash**, a local-first document memory system that combines vector similarity search with full-text keyword matching via Reciprocal Rank Fusion (RRF) and adaptive per-query IDF weighting. All data resides in a single SQLite file using sqlite-vec for approximate nearest neighbor search and FTS5 for keyword matching. We make four primary contributions. **(1)** Self-supervised embedding refinement via hybrid retrieval disagreement: across 753 BEIR queries on SciFact, NFCorpus, and FiQA, 74.5% produce top-10 disagreement between vector-heavy (vec=0.95, fts=0.05) and FTS-heavy (vec=0.05, fts=0.95) search (per-dataset rates 63.4% / 73.4% / 86.7%, Section 5.2), providing a free training signal without human labels. Fine-tuning BGE-small (33M params) with MultipleNegativesRankingLoss on 76K disagreement triples improves NDCG@10 on all 5 BEIR datasets (up to +19.5% on NFCorpus vs. BGE-small base RRF, Table 6). On 3 of 5 datasets, under different preprocessing, the tuned 33M-parameter pipeline matches or exceeds published ColBERTv2 results (110M params) and an untrained BGE-base (110M); on FiQA and ArguAna it underperforms ColBERTv2 (Section 5.5). **(2)** Adaptive RRF with per-query IDF weighting improves NDCG@10 on all 5 BEIR datasets versus fixed weights (up to +21.4% on ArguAna), achieving 0.7263 on SciFact with BGE-small. **(3)** A negative result on post-RRF scoring: frequency+decay, history-augmented recall, and cross-encoder reranking all failed to improve NDCG. **(4)** A production-grade substrate with integrity checking, schema versioning, ranking diagnostics, and a distance-based relevance signal validated on 50,425 relevance-judged queries across the 5 BEIR datasets. Search latency remains 20.9 ms median at 50K chunks with stable NDCG. The fine-tuned model is published as `Stffens/bge-small-rrf-v2` on HuggingFace. All code, data, and experiments are open-source.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 15

Worse than Zero-shot? A Fact-Checking Dataset for Evaluating the Robustness of RAG Against Misleading Retrievals

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has shown impressive capabilities in mitigating hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs struggle to handle misleading retrievals and often fail to maintain their own reasoning when exposed to conflicting or selectively-framed evidence, making them vulnerable to real-world misinformation. In such real-world retrieval scenarios, misleading and conflicting information is rampant, particularly in the political domain, where evidence is often selectively framed, incomplete, or polarized. However, existing RAG benchmarks largely assume a clean retrieval setting, where models succeed by accurately retrieving and generating answers from gold-standard documents. This assumption fails to align with real-world conditions, leading to an overestimation of RAG system performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce RAGuard, a fact-checking dataset designed to evaluate the robustness of RAG systems against misleading retrievals. Unlike prior benchmarks that rely on synthetic noise, our dataset constructs its retrieval corpus from Reddit discussions, capturing naturally occurring misinformation. It categorizes retrieved evidence into three types: supporting, misleading, and irrelevant, providing a realistic and challenging testbed for assessing how well RAG systems navigate different retrieval information. Our benchmark experiments reveal that when exposed to misleading retrievals, all tested LLM-powered RAG systems perform worse than their zero-shot baselines (i.e., no retrieval at all), highlighting their susceptibility to noisy environments. To the best of our knowledge, RAGuard is the first benchmark to systematically assess RAG robustness against misleading evidence. We expect this benchmark will drive future research toward improving RAG systems beyond idealized datasets, making them more reliable for real-world applications.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 22, 2025

Compared to What? Baselines and Metrics for Counterfactual Prompting

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 30

Keyword Harnesses Fail Open: A Cheap Diagnostic Ladder for Tool-Use Claims in Small Language Models

Keyword-matching benchmarks can credit small models for tool use they never perform. We document such a false positive in a matched-architecture pair of Spanish security language models and propose a ladder of strict, cheap diagnostics. A 661.6M parameter model (approx. 65% code/technical text; no dedicated SFT) and a 1,109M model (web-heavy multi-phase curriculum; 6B-token tool-SFT) share decoder, tokenizer, and special tokens, scoring almost identically on lenient tool-use metrics (B4: 0.660 vs. 0.650). Verbatim-reproduction checks on training examples separate them completely: the 600M emits valid tool calls with generalized arguments on 6/6 examples; the 1B does so on 0/6 across checkpoints. A first-token probe localizes the 1B's failure to a missing prior (prob. 10^{-4}--10^{-5} on <|tool_call|>), which was erased by its web-heavy training phase. A targeted SFT recipe (diverse corpus, 5x higher learning rate, 2,202 steps, ~3.3 GPU-hours) repairs the 1B using three orders of magnitude fewer tokens than the failed phase. On all 269 corpus rows, valid emission rises from 0.100 to 0.959 (600M: 0.926). On 238 unseen prompts, the repaired 1B passes 0.536 vs. the 600M's 0.428 (p = 0.004). Embedding-drift checks show the repair did not move the trigger token's tied embedding (97.7% of the bf16 table remains bit-identical), meaning changes live in the surrounding network. Both models over-trigger, rarely answering negative prompts without a call (0.09 for 600M, 0.17 for repaired 1B). Factorial analyses confirm all repair configurations install the format, though suppression benefits from a diverse corpus remain a hypothesis due to seed sensitivity. This cheap diagnostic ladder costs minutes of CPU time and should gate tool-use claims on small models.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 30 2

Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original top-1. The calibrated conditional distribution allocates the remaining mass over the other classes, yielding a repaired vector whose own argmax recovers the original prediction. On the calibration split, CORD coordinates the repaired masses to retain the calibrated outputs' mean mass on original predictions whenever attainable. The adapter alters neither the fitted calibrator nor its direct output, fits no additional supervised map, and requires no user- or validation-tuned hyperparameter. Across CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet-1K, CORD attains zero TPCR by construction and lowers mean ECE, NLL, and Brier relative to the corresponding direct outputs in every dataset; paired gains persist under distribution shift and across calibration-set sizes. CORD thus removes the preservation constraint from calibrator fitting and assigns exact recovery of the original decision to subsequent output repair. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/CORD.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 1 2

Out-of-Distribution Detection & Applications With Ablated Learned Temperature Energy

As deep neural networks become adopted in high-stakes domains, it is crucial to be able to identify when inference inputs are Out-of-Distribution (OOD) so that users can be alerted of likely drops in performance and calibration despite high confidence. Among many others, existing methods use the following two scores to do so without training on any apriori OOD examples: a learned temperature and an energy score. In this paper we introduce Ablated Learned Temperature Energy (or "AbeT" for short), a method which combines these prior methods in novel ways with effective modifications. Due to these contributions, AbeT lowers the False Positive Rate at 95% True Positive Rate (FPR@95) by 35.39% in classification (averaged across all ID and OOD datasets measured) compared to state of the art without training networks in multiple stages or requiring hyperparameters or test-time backward passes. We additionally provide empirical insights as to how our model learns to distinguish between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples while only being explicitly trained on ID samples via exposure to misclassified ID examples at training time. Lastly, we show the efficacy of our method in identifying predicted bounding boxes and pixels corresponding to OOD objects in object detection and semantic segmentation, respectively - with an AUROC increase of 5.15% in object detection and both a decrease in FPR@95 of 41.48% and an increase in AUPRC of 34.20% on average in semantic segmentation compared to previous state of the art.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 22, 2024

De novo peptide sequencing rescoring and FDR estimation with Winnow

Machine learning has markedly advanced de novo peptide sequencing (DNS) for mass spectrometry-based proteomics. DNS tools offer a reliable way to identify peptides without relying on reference databases, extending proteomic analysis and unlocking applications into less-charted regions of the proteome. However, they still face a key limitation. DNS tools lack principled methods for estimating false discovery rates (FDR) and instead rely on model-specific confidence scores that are often miscalibrated. This limits trust in results, hinders cross-model comparisons and reduces validation success. Here we present Winnow, a model-agnostic framework for estimating FDR from calibrated DNS outputs. Winnow maps raw model scores to calibrated confidences using a neural network trained on peptide-spectrum match (PSM)-derived features. From these calibrated scores, Winnow computes PSM-specific error metrics and an experiment-wide FDR estimate using a novel decoy-free FDR estimator. It supports both zero-shot and dataset-specific calibration, enabling flexible application via direct inference, fine-tuning, or training a custom model. We demonstrate that, when applied to InstaNovo predictions, Winnow's calibrator improves recall at fixed FDR thresholds, and its FDR estimator tracks true error rates when benchmarked against reference proteomes and database search. Winnow ensures accurate FDR control across datasets, helping unlock the full potential of DNS.

InstaDeepAI InstaDeep Ltd
·
Sep 29, 2025

Evaluating Commercial AI Chatbots as News Intermediaries

AI chatbots are rapidly shaping how people encounter the news, yet no prior study has systematically measured how accurately these systems, with their proprietary search integrations and retrieval-synthesis pipelines, handle emerging facts across languages and regions. We present a 14-day (February 9-22, 2026) evaluation of six AI chatbots (Gemini 3 Flash and Pro, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, GPT-5 and GPT-4o mini) on 2,100 factual questions derived from same-day BBC News reporting across six regional services (US & Canada, Arabic, Afrique, Hindi, Russian, Turkish). The best systems achieve over 90% multiple-choice accuracy on questions about events reported hours earlier. The same systems, however, lose 11-13% under free-response evaluation, and 16-17% across the cohort. We further characterize three failure patterns. First, every model achieves its lowest accuracy on Hindi (79% vs. 89-91% elsewhere) and citations indicate an Anglophone retrieval bias (e.g., models answering Hindi queries cite English Wikipedia more than any Hindi outlet). Second, retrieval, not reasoning, failures drive over 70% of all errors. When models retrieve a correct source, they often extract the correct answer; the problem is to land on the right source in the first place. Third, models achieving 88-96% accuracy on well-formed questions drop to 19-70% when questions contain subtle false premises, with the most vulnerable model accepting fabricated facts 64% of the time. We also identify a detection-accuracy paradox: the best false-premise detector ranks second in adversarial accuracy (abstention rate), while a weaker detector ranks first, showing that premise detection and answer recovery are partially independent capabilities. Overall, these suggest that high accuracy can mask systematic regional inequity, near-total dependence on retrieval infrastructure, and vulnerability to imperfect queries real users pose.

  • 8 authors
·
May 20

Detecting Pretraining Data from Large Language Models

Although large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed, the data used to train them is rarely disclosed. Given the incredible scale of this data, up to trillions of tokens, it is all but certain that it includes potentially problematic text such as copyrighted materials, personally identifiable information, and test data for widely reported reference benchmarks. However, we currently have no way to know which data of these types is included or in what proportions. In this paper, we study the pretraining data detection problem: given a piece of text and black-box access to an LLM without knowing the pretraining data, can we determine if the model was trained on the provided text? To facilitate this study, we introduce a dynamic benchmark WIKIMIA that uses data created before and after model training to support gold truth detection. We also introduce a new detection method Min-K% Prob based on a simple hypothesis: an unseen example is likely to contain a few outlier words with low probabilities under the LLM, while a seen example is less likely to have words with such low probabilities. Min-K% Prob can be applied without any knowledge about the pretraining corpus or any additional training, departing from previous detection methods that require training a reference model on data that is similar to the pretraining data. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that Min-K% Prob achieves a 7.4% improvement on WIKIMIA over these previous methods. We apply Min-K% Prob to two real-world scenarios, copyrighted book detection, and contaminated downstream example detection, and find it a consistently effective solution.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 25, 2023

Toward Reliable Biomedical Hypothesis Generation: Evaluating Truthfulness and Hallucination in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in scientific disciplines such as biomedicine, particularly in hypothesis generation, where they can analyze vast literature, identify patterns, and suggest research directions. However, a key challenge lies in evaluating the truthfulness of generated hypotheses, as verifying their accuracy often requires substantial time and resources. Additionally, the hallucination problem in LLMs can lead to the generation of hypotheses that appear plausible but are ultimately incorrect, undermining their reliability. To facilitate the systematic study of these challenges, we introduce TruthHypo, a benchmark for assessing the capabilities of LLMs in generating truthful biomedical hypotheses, and KnowHD, a knowledge-based hallucination detector to evaluate how well hypotheses are grounded in existing knowledge. Our results show that LLMs struggle to generate truthful hypotheses. By analyzing hallucinations in reasoning steps, we demonstrate that the groundedness scores provided by KnowHD serve as an effective metric for filtering truthful hypotheses from the diverse outputs of LLMs. Human evaluations further validate the utility of KnowHD in identifying truthful hypotheses and accelerating scientific discovery. Our data and source code are available at https://github.com/Teddy-XiongGZ/TruthHypo.

  • 8 authors
·
May 20, 2025 2

Corrective Machine Unlearning

Machine Learning models increasingly face data integrity challenges due to the use of large-scale training datasets drawn from the Internet. We study what model developers can do if they detect that some data was manipulated or incorrect. Such manipulated data can cause adverse effects including vulnerability to backdoored samples, systemic biases, and reduced accuracy on certain input domains. Realistically, all manipulated training samples cannot be identified, and only a small, representative subset of the affected data can be flagged. We formalize Corrective Machine Unlearning as the problem of mitigating the impact of data affected by unknown manipulations on a trained model, only having identified a subset of the corrupted data. We demonstrate that the problem of corrective unlearning has significantly different requirements from traditional privacy-oriented unlearning. We find most existing unlearning methods, including retraining-from-scratch without the deletion set, require most of the manipulated data to be identified for effective corrective unlearning. However, one approach, Selective Synaptic Dampening, achieves limited success, unlearning adverse effects with just a small portion of the manipulated samples in our setting, which shows encouraging signs for future progress. We hope our work spurs research towards developing better methods for corrective unlearning and offers practitioners a new strategy to handle data integrity challenges arising from web-scale training. Code is available at https://github.com/drimpossible/corrective-unlearning-bench.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024

Fisher-R1: Training LLM Agents for Reliable Hypothesis Testing

Reliable hypothesis testing is the foundation of many empirical scientific claims. Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used to automate this process, as they can inspect datasets, generate code, and produce analyses end-to-end. However, we show that they frequently make subtle inferential errors that lead to incorrect conclusions despite correctly executed analyses. Existing benchmarks fail to capture this failure mode, as they rarely assess whether a reported p-value is statistically valid given the assumptions underlying the data. We address this gap by building P-Bench, a benchmark comprising 425 open-ended, realistic hypothesis-testing tasks spanning economics, biology, and medicine. Each task requires an agent to select a statistical method, compute a p-value, and draw a conclusion given only a scientific hypothesis and a dataset. We further introduce Fisher-R1, an open-weight LLM agent trained for rigorous hypothesis testing using synthetic tasks and reinforcement learning. On P-Bench, Fisher-R1-14B substantially improves over its backbone and outperforms strong proprietary and open-source baselines, including GPT-5.4 and DeepSeekV4-Pro, achieving a 21% average relative improvement in single-trial success over DeepSeek-V4-Pro, with gains up to 26% on the most challenging tasks. Our results demonstrate that current LLM agents lack reliable statistical reasoning for hypothesis testing and that reinforcement learning on tasks with verified statistical reward substantially improves reliability.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 6

Community corrections have divergent downstream effects across corrected accounts

Community-based fact-checking can reduce the spread of annotated misleading posts, but whether it produces lasting behavioral change among corrected authors remains unclear. Here, we conduct a large-scale quasi-experimental study of the Community Notes system on X (formerly Twitter), tracking four weeks of activity before and after note display for 19,854 accounts and 57,935 corrections (noted posts and matched controls), covering 11,909,591 original posts. Difference-in-Differences estimates show that note display is followed by an average 2.9% increase in corrected accounts' original-post activity. This aggregate conceals two divergent trajectories. Accounts corrected only once reduce their activity by 2.4% and subsequently publish less toxic and less misleading content. Repeatedly corrected accounts, which constitute 28.6% of corrected accounts but produce 73.4% of fact-checked posts, instead increase their activity by 4.4% after their first correction and show no detectable response to later ones. They exhibit no comparable content improvement, and instead publish more highly misleading posts, cite lower-quality domains, and post more political content. Community notes can thus constrain individual misleading posts without durably improving the behavior of the accounts most responsible for them, indicating that correcting content and changing its producers are distinct objectives for platform design.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 26

Assessing Domain-Level Susceptibility to Emergent Misalignment from Narrow Finetuning

Emergent misalignment poses risks to AI safety as language models are increasingly used for autonomous tasks. In this paper, we present a population of large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned on insecure datasets spanning 11 diverse domains, evaluating them both with and without backdoor triggers on a suite of unrelated user prompts. Our evaluation experiments on Qwen2.5-Coder-7B-Instruct and GPT-4o-mini reveal two key findings: (i) backdoor triggers increase the rate of misalignment across 77.8% of domains (average drop: 4.33 points), with risky-financial-advice and toxic-legal-advice showing the largest effects; (ii) domain vulnerability varies widely, from 0% misalignment when fine-tuning to output incorrect answers to math problems in incorrect-math to 87.67% when fine-tuned on gore-movie-trivia. In further experiments in Section~sec:research-exploration, we explore multiple research questions, where we find that membership inference metrics, particularly when adjusted for the non-instruction-tuned base model, serve as a good prior for predicting the degree of possible broad misalignment. Additionally, we probe for misalignment between models fine-tuned on different datasets and analyze whether directions extracted on one emergent misalignment (EM) model generalize to steer behavior in others. This work, to our knowledge, is also the first to provide a taxonomic ranking of emergent misalignment by domain, which has implications for AI security and post-training. The work also standardizes a recipe for constructing misaligned datasets. All code and datasets are publicly available on GitHub.https://github.com/abhishek9909/assessing-domain-emergent-misalignment/tree/main

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 30 4

Can Language Models Falsify? Evaluating Algorithmic Reasoning with Counterexample Creation

There is growing excitement about the potential of Language Models (LMs) to accelerate scientific discovery. Falsifying hypotheses is key to scientific progress, as it allows claims to be iteratively refined over time. This process requires significant researcher effort, reasoning, and ingenuity. Yet current benchmarks for LMs predominantly assess their ability to generate solutions rather than challenge them. We advocate for developing benchmarks that evaluate this inverse capability - creating counterexamples for subtly incorrect solutions. To demonstrate this approach, we start with the domain of algorithmic problem solving, where counterexamples can be evaluated automatically using code execution. Specifically, we introduce REFUTE, a dynamically updating benchmark that includes recent problems and incorrect submissions from programming competitions, where human experts successfully identified counterexamples. Our analysis finds that the best reasoning agents, even OpenAI o3-mini (high) with code execution feedback, can create counterexamples for only <9% of incorrect solutions in REFUTE, even though ratings indicate its ability to solve up to 48% of these problems from scratch. We hope our work spurs progress in evaluating and enhancing LMs' ability to falsify incorrect solutions - a capability that is crucial for both accelerating research and making models self-improve through reliable reflective reasoning.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 26, 2025 2

Aligning Language Models with Observational Data: Opportunities and Risks from a Causal Perspective

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

  • 1 authors
·
May 30, 2025

Is this Citation on Point?

In 2023, a New York judge sanctioned two attorneys in Mata v. Avianca for filing a brief with hallucinated citations generated by ChatGPT. Such failures are largely caught by database lookups; the harder problem is detecting citations that point to real cases but do not support the propositions for which they are offered -- a failure mode that existing evaluations of LLMs for legal use cases largely overlook. In this paper, we study proposition-level citation support verification through controlled perturbations of real legal citations obtained from two legal corpora, either replacing the cited case or changing only the pinpoint page within the same case. We evaluate fourteen model configurations on the resulting examples. Models catch 93-100% of wrong-case corruptions. They catch only 37-61% of wrong-pinpoint corruptions on court opinions and 52-83% on legal briefs. When models fail to catch wrong-pinpoint corruptions, they accept the citation based on topical overlap rather than page-level support. Scale and extended reasoning narrow the gap but do not close it: GPT-5.4 with high reasoning effort still misses 40% of pinpoint mismatches on court opinions and 18% on briefs. Prompting the model to verify support at the cited page improves recall, but it also raises the false positive rate. Recognizing the right legal topic and verifying support for the cited proposition are distinct capabilities, and current models conflate them.

bloomberg Bloomberg
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Aug 11 2

HyPoradise: An Open Baseline for Generative Speech Recognition with Large Language Models

Advancements in deep neural networks have allowed automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems to attain human parity on several publicly available clean speech datasets. However, even state-of-the-art ASR systems experience performance degradation when confronted with adverse conditions, as a well-trained acoustic model is sensitive to variations in the speech domain, e.g., background noise. Intuitively, humans address this issue by relying on their linguistic knowledge: the meaning of ambiguous spoken terms is usually inferred from contextual cues thereby reducing the dependency on the auditory system. Inspired by this observation, we introduce the first open-source benchmark to utilize external large language models (LLMs) for ASR error correction, where N-best decoding hypotheses provide informative elements for true transcription prediction. This approach is a paradigm shift from the traditional language model rescoring strategy that can only select one candidate hypothesis as the output transcription. The proposed benchmark contains a novel dataset, HyPoradise (HP), encompassing more than 334,000 pairs of N-best hypotheses and corresponding accurate transcriptions across prevalent speech domains. Given this dataset, we examine three types of error correction techniques based on LLMs with varying amounts of labeled hypotheses-transcription pairs, which gains a significant word error rate (WER) reduction. Experimental evidence demonstrates the proposed technique achieves a breakthrough by surpassing the upper bound of traditional re-ranking based methods. More surprisingly, LLM with reasonable prompt and its generative capability can even correct those tokens that are missing in N-best list. We make our results publicly accessible for reproducible pipelines with released pre-trained models, thus providing a new evaluation paradigm for ASR error correction with LLMs.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023

Disposition Distillation at Small Scale: A Three-Arc Negative Result

We set out to train behavioral dispositions (self-verification, uncertainty acknowledgment, feedback integration) into small language models (0.6B to 2.3B effective parameters) through a four-stage all-MIT distillation pipeline, with follow-on experiments on inference-time attention-head interventions and a frozen-base confidence-gated sidecar. An internal draft reported +33.9-point MCAS and +15.3-point HumanEval gains on a Qwen3-0.6B student; a second-pass sanity check falsified both numbers before publication. The HumanEval delta was a truncation artifact (n_predict=512) that inverted to -8.0 points at n_predict=1024; the MCAS gain disappeared under apples-to-apples scoring. That falsification triggered three subsequent arcs. Across (1) SFT/DPO LoRA on three model families and two domains, (2) inference-time attention-head tempering on o_proj, and (3) a training-free frozen-base sidecar reading the final-token hidden state h_last, we find no operator that moves judge-measured disposition without damaging content or collapsing into stylistic mimicry. The failure is consistent across five models (Qwen3-0.6B, Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3.5-0.8B, Gemma 4 E2B, and SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct). A within-distribution cross-validation pass (AUC=0.683) collapsed to chance on fresh prompts (AUC=0.516). We contribute a three-arc negative result with mechanism, a two-failure-mode taxonomy for linear h_last probes, and an honest falsification pipeline that converts the class of false positives we ourselves produced into publishable negatives. As an independent finding, Gemma 4 E2B exhibits near-complete confidence-correctness decoupling on the Chef domain (assertion asymmetry -0.009; the model asserts at 91% regardless of correctness).

Tinman-Lab Tinman Lab SL
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Apr 12

ARHN: Answer-Centric Relabeling of Hard Negatives with Open-Source LLMs for Dense Retrieval

Neural retrievers are often trained on large-scale triplet data comprising a query, a positive passage, and a set of hard negatives. In practice, hard-negative mining can introduce false negatives and other ambiguous negatives, including passages that are relevant or contain partial answers to the query. Such label noise yields inconsistent supervision and can degrade retrieval effectiveness. We propose ARHN (Answer-centric Relabeling of Hard Negatives), a two-stage framework that leverages open-source LLMs to refine hard negative samples using answer-centric relevance signals. In the first stage, for each query-passage pair, ARHN prompts the LLM to generate a passage-grounded answer snippet or to indicate that the passage does not support an answer. In the second stage, ARHN applies an LLM-based listwise ranking over the candidate set to order passages by direct answerability to the query. Passages ranked above the original positive are relabeled to additional positives. Among passages ranked below the positive, ARHN excludes any that contain an answer snippet from the negative set to avoid ambiguous supervision. We evaluated ARHN on the BEIR benchmark under three configurations: relabeling only, filtering only, and their combination. Across datasets, the combined strategy consistently improves over either step in isolation, indicating that jointly relabeling false negatives and filtering ambiguous negatives yields cleaner supervision for training neural retrieval models. By relying strictly on open-source models, ARHN establishes a cost-effective and scalable refinement pipeline suitable for large-scale training.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 12

Pervasive Label Errors in Test Sets Destabilize Machine Learning Benchmarks

We identify label errors in the test sets of 10 of the most commonly-used computer vision, natural language, and audio datasets, and subsequently study the potential for these label errors to affect benchmark results. Errors in test sets are numerous and widespread: we estimate an average of at least 3.3% errors across the 10 datasets, where for example label errors comprise at least 6% of the ImageNet validation set. Putative label errors are identified using confident learning algorithms and then human-validated via crowdsourcing (51% of the algorithmically-flagged candidates are indeed erroneously labeled, on average across the datasets). Traditionally, machine learning practitioners choose which model to deploy based on test accuracy - our findings advise caution here, proposing that judging models over correctly labeled test sets may be more useful, especially for noisy real-world datasets. Surprisingly, we find that lower capacity models may be practically more useful than higher capacity models in real-world datasets with high proportions of erroneously labeled data. For example, on ImageNet with corrected labels: ResNet-18 outperforms ResNet-50 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 6%. On CIFAR-10 with corrected labels: VGG-11 outperforms VGG-19 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 5%. Test set errors across the 10 datasets can be viewed at https://labelerrors.com and all label errors can be reproduced by https://github.com/cleanlab/label-errors.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 26, 2021

Agent Retrieval Bench: Evaluating Repository Context Retrieval for Coding Agents

Modern coding agents are usually evaluated by whether they eventually produce a correct patch, but patch generation depends on an earlier context-acquisition stage: finding the repository files needed for the task. We introduce Agent Retrieval Bench, a file-level benchmark for this upstream retrieval problem. Samples are built from real coding-workflow signals and evaluated against frozen base-commit repositories, with relevance defined by what an agent needs next rather than direct query-file semantic similarity. The benchmark covers four positive-retrieval tasks: code2test, comment2context, trace2code, and edit2ripple; a fifth subset evaluates selective retrieval using natural evidence-backed no-gold cases and counterfactual wrong-repository controls. Agent Retrieval Bench contains 427 samples across 25 repositories: 345 positive examples, 50 natural no-gold examples, and 32 counterfactual controls. The corpus includes 308 base-commit snapshots, 392,000 files, and 7.9 million chunks. We evaluate lexical retrieval, RepoMap, open-source embeddings, selective abstention, and logged agent context selection. No single retrieval family dominates: Qwen3-Embedding-4B has the best sample-weighted MRR on positive samples, Qwen3-Embedding-8B the best Recall@20, and RepoMap the best budgeted context yield at 8K tokens, with task-level winners differing substantially. Selective thresholds calibrated with counterfactual controls do not improve selective success on natural no-gold cases, revealing a calibration gap. Logged trajectories also miss every gold file on 27-35 percent of samples. A controlled seed-intervention pilot finds that retrieval-derived initial context yields higher file F1 with less post-seed exploration than random non-gold context, while oracle gold context shows substantial remaining headroom.

  • 2 authors
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Jul 26 2

TED:Text-Axis Evidence Decomposition for Prompted Anomaly Localization

CLIP is a powerful vision-language model, but it was not designed for fine-grained defect localization; CLIP-based anomaly detectors therefore adapt it with prompts or lightweight modules to increase defect sensitivity. We show that stronger sensitivity does not necessarily make local evidence reliable: under domain shift, adapted CLIP-AD models often assign high anomaly scores to both true defects and visually complex normal regions. The issue is not simply missing defect information, but a local scoring rule that decodes defect and hard-normal evidence, having the same anomaly evidence. We propose TED (Text-Axis Evidence Decomposition), a post-hoc scoring method that asks whether each ambiguous response is better supported by source defect patches or by source normal patches mistaken as anomalous. TED compares these supports under the host's normal-versus-anomaly text response, leaves the backbone and prompts unchanged, and requires no target-domain training. It works as a train-free score for raw VLM backbones or as a source-calibrated residual correction for adapted CLIP-AD hosts. Across frozen VLM backbones, TED substantially improves pixel-level localization over raw prompt similarity; across adapted hosts, it improves most pixel-level settings over P-AUROC, P-PRO, and P-AP. Gains are largest under stronger hard-FP competition, with mean localization gain increasing from +5.0 in low-competition regimes to about +10.9 in mid/high-competition regimes. These results suggest that recoverable defect evidence can already exist in pretrained multimodal representations, but reliable localization requires decoding it against hard-normal competitors. Code will be released at TED GitHub repository.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 29

Subtitle-Aligned Fine-Tuning of Whisper for Swiss German ASR: Benchmark Contamination, Convention Mismatch, and an Honest Baseline at 25.6% WER (13.8% cWER)

We present a systematic study of fine-tuning OpenAI's Whisper large-v3 for Swiss German ASR, using 1,367 hours of broadcast speech paired with Standard German subtitles as weak supervision. Through 16 iterative training runs on an NVIDIA DGX Spark (Grace Blackwell, 128 GB unified memory, up to 1 PFLOP FP4), we compare LoRA and full fine-tuning of the 1.55B-parameter model, investigate hallucination root causes, and quantify the effect of data quality, subtitle alignment, and training strategy. Our best model achieves 25.6% measured WER on the All Swiss German Dialects Test Set (ASGDTS) in an honest evaluation on strictly disjoint data. A harmonized error analysis separating genuine errors from valid stylistic variation (tense, word order, Swiss orthography) yields a content WER (cWER) of 13.8%, counting only actual recognition failures. Bias-corrected estimation reduces this to 8.5%, suggesting the true error rate is roughly one third of measured WER. We demonstrate that published state-of-the-art Swiss German ASR results (17.1-17.5% WER) are inflated by benchmark contamination: a vanilla Whisper model self-trained on the ASGDTS test set with zero Swiss German data achieves 13.88% WER, surpassing all published systems. Experiments with Phi-4-multimodal show an even stronger memorization effect (3.9% WER), revealing that the benchmark primarily measures convention matching rather than dialectal comprehension. We release two models, a LoRA adapter (25.32% WER, 13.9% cWER) and a full fine-tuned model (25.60% WER, 13.8% cWER), among the few publicly available, honestly evaluated Whisper models for Swiss German, under Apache 2.0 with full reproducibility, requiring no institutional data agreements.

  • 1 authors
·
May 28

Towards Characterizing Scientific Image Utility and Upgradability

Scientific images function as critical evidence in research communication, yet their integrity faces unprecedented threats from AI-generated content that introduces subtle but consequential errors. Existing evaluation paradigms prove inadequate: perceptual quality metrics poorly correlate with scientific validity, while language models lack domain-specific verification capabilities. To address this gap, we propose the Scientific Image Utility and Upgradability Assessment (SIU^2A) framework, which introduces two complementary dimensions for scientific image evaluation. Utility encompasses error detection (identifying scientific inaccuracies) and correction feasibility (assessing whether errors can be reliably repaired). Upgradability measures the quality of correction. We categorize scientific image corruption into four fundamental types: Detail Distortion, Incompleteness, False Content, and Entity Confusion. Based on this taxonomy, we construct SIU^2A-Benchmark, a dataset with expert annotations for error identification and repair. The framework implements a two-stage evaluation protocol: the Utility stage evaluates error detection capability and repair instruction generation, while the Upgradability stage assesses whether corrections faithfully restore scientific validity without compromising existing accurate information. Experiments reveal that current multimodal systems exhibit significant limitations in both scientific error assessment and faithful correction, exposing a fundamental gap between visual perception and scientific usability.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 8

Noise in Relation Classification Dataset TACRED: Characterization and Reduction

The overarching objective of this paper is two-fold. First, to explore model-based approaches to characterize the primary cause of the noise. in the RE dataset TACRED Second, to identify the potentially noisy instances. Towards the first objective, we analyze predictions and performance of state-of-the-art (SOTA) models to identify the root cause of noise in the dataset. Our analysis of TACRED shows that the majority of the noise in the dataset originates from the instances labeled as no-relation which are negative examples. For the second objective, we explore two nearest-neighbor-based strategies to automatically identify potentially noisy examples for elimination and reannotation. Our first strategy, referred to as Intrinsic Strategy (IS), is based on the assumption that positive examples are clean. Thus, we have used false-negative predictions to identify noisy negative examples. Whereas, our second approach, referred to as Extrinsic Strategy, is based on using a clean subset of the dataset to identify potentially noisy negative examples. Finally, we retrained the SOTA models on the eliminated and reannotated dataset. Our empirical results based on two SOTA models trained on TACRED-E following the IS show an average 4% F1-score improvement, whereas reannotation (TACRED-R) does not improve the original results. However, following ES, SOTA models show the average F1-score improvement of 3.8% and 4.4% when trained on respective eliminated (TACRED-EN) and reannotated (TACRED-RN) datasets respectively. We further extended the ES for cleaning positive examples as well, which resulted in an average performance improvement of 5.8% and 5.6% for the eliminated (TACRED-ENP) and reannotated (TACRED-RNP) datasets respectively.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 20, 2023

On the Limits of LLM Adaptability: Impact of Model-Internalized Priors on Annotation Task Performance

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

Hard Negatives or False Negatives: Correcting Pooling Bias in Training Neural Ranking Models

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have become one of the most important techniques in information retrieval (IR). Due to the limitation of relevance labels, the training of NRMs heavily relies on negative sampling over unlabeled data. In general machine learning scenarios, it has shown that training with hard negatives (i.e., samples that are close to positives) could lead to better performance. Surprisingly, we find opposite results from our empirical studies in IR. When sampling top-ranked results (excluding the labeled positives) as negatives from a stronger retriever, the performance of the learned NRM becomes even worse. Based on our investigation, the superficial reason is that there are more false negatives (i.e., unlabeled positives) in the top-ranked results with a stronger retriever, which may hurt the training process; The root is the existence of pooling bias in the dataset constructing process, where annotators only judge and label very few samples selected by some basic retrievers. Therefore, in principle, we can formulate the false negative issue in training NRMs as learning from labeled datasets with pooling bias. To solve this problem, we propose a novel Coupled Estimation Technique (CET) that learns both a relevance model and a selection model simultaneously to correct the pooling bias for training NRMs. Empirical results on three retrieval benchmarks show that NRMs trained with our technique can achieve significant gains on ranking effectiveness against other baseline strategies.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 12, 2022

AutoBool: An Reinforcement-Learning trained LLM for Effective Automated Boolean Query Generation for Systematic Reviews

We present AutoBool, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains large language models (LLMs) to generate effective Boolean queries for medical systematic reviews. Boolean queries are the primary mechanism for literature retrieval in this domain and must achieve high recall while maintaining reasonable precision - a challenging balance that existing prompt-based LLM approaches often struggle to achieve. A major limitation in this space is the lack of high-quality ground-truth Boolean queries for each topic, which makes supervised fine-tuning impractical. AutoBool addresses this challenge by using RL to directly optimize query generation with retrieval measures, without requiring target queries. To support this effort, we create and release the largest dataset of its kind: 65588 topics in total for training and evaluating the task of automatic Boolean query formulation. Experiments on our new dataset and two established datasets (CLEF TAR and Seed Collection) show that AutoBool significantly outperforms zero shot/few shot prompting and matches or exceeds the effectiveness of much larger GPT-based models (e.g., GPT-4o, O3) using smaller backbones. It also approaches effectiveness of expert-authored queries while retrieving 10 to 16 times fewer documents. Ablation studies reveal the critical roles of model backbone, size, decoding temperature, and prompt design. Code and data are available at https://github.com/ielab/AutoBool.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 20, 2025

Unintentional Unalignment: Likelihood Displacement in Direct Preference Optimization

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants are increasingly used for aligning language models with human preferences. Although these methods are designed to teach a model to generate preferred responses more frequently relative to dispreferred responses, prior work has observed that the likelihood of preferred responses often decreases during training. The current work sheds light on the causes and implications of this counter-intuitive phenomenon, which we term likelihood displacement. We demonstrate that likelihood displacement can be catastrophic, shifting probability mass from preferred responses to responses with an opposite meaning. As a simple example, training a model to prefer No over Never can sharply increase the probability of Yes. Moreover, when aligning the model to refuse unsafe prompts, we show that such displacement can unintentionally lead to unalignment, by shifting probability mass from preferred refusal responses to harmful responses (e.g., reducing the refusal rate of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 74.4% to 33.4%). We theoretically characterize that likelihood displacement is driven by preferences that induce similar embeddings, as measured by a centered hidden embedding similarity (CHES) score. Empirically, the CHES score enables identifying which training samples contribute most to likelihood displacement in a given dataset. Filtering out these samples effectively mitigated unintentional unalignment in our experiments. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of curating data with sufficiently distinct preferences, for which we believe the CHES score may prove valuable.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 11, 2024

Exploring Response Uncertainty in MLLMs: An Empirical Evaluation under Misleading Scenarios

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on tasks ranging from visual question answering to video understanding. However, existing studies have concentrated mainly on visual-textual misalignment, leaving largely unexplored the MLLMs' ability to preserve an originally correct answer when confronted with misleading information. We reveal a response uncertainty phenomenon: across nine standard datasets, twelve state-of-the-art open-source MLLMs overturn a previously correct answer in 65% of cases after receiving a single deceptive cue. To systematically quantify this vulnerability, we propose a two-stage evaluation pipeline: (1) elicit each model's original response on unperturbed inputs; (2) inject explicit (false-answer hints) and implicit (contextual contradictions) misleading instructions, and compute the misleading rate - the fraction of correct-to-incorrect flips. Leveraging the most susceptible examples, we curate the Multimodal Uncertainty Benchmark (MUB), a collection of image-question pairs stratified into low, medium, and high difficulty based on how many of twelve state-of-the-art MLLMs they mislead. Extensive evaluation on twelve open-source and five closed-source models reveals a high uncertainty: average misleading rates exceed 86%, with explicit cues over 67.19% and implicit cues over 80.67%. To reduce the misleading rate, we then fine-tune all open-source MLLMs on a compact 2000-sample mixed-instruction dataset, reducing misleading rates to 6.97% (explicit) and 32.77% (implicit), boosting consistency by nearly 29.37% on highly deceptive inputs, and slightly improving accuracy on standard benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yunkaidang/uncertainty

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 4, 2024

Source or It Didn't Happen: A Multi-Agent Framework for Citation Hallucination Detection

Large language models are increasingly used in scientific writing, yet they can fabricate citation-shaped references that appear plausible but fail bibliographic verification. Existing detectors often reduce verification to binary found/not-found decisions and rely on brittle parsing or incomplete retrieval, offering little field-level signal to auditors. We reframe citation hallucination detection as taxonomy-aligned field-level adjudication and introduce a 12-code taxonomy spanning Real, Potential, and Hallucinated citations. Based on this taxonomy, we build CiteTracer, a cascading multi-agent detector that extracts structured citations from PDF and BibTeX, retrieves evidence through cache lookup, URL fetch, scholar connectors, and web search, applies deterministic field matching, and routes ambiguous cases to class-specialist judgers. We release a benchmark of 2,450 synthetic citations built from real seeds with controlled LLM mutations, paired with 957 real-world fabricated citations drawn from ICLR 2026 and an anonymous conference desk-rejected submissions. CiteTracer reaches 97.1% accuracy on the synthetic benchmark, with class-level F1 scores of 97.0, 95.8, and 98.5 for Real, Potential, and Hallucinated, respectively, and detects 97.1% of fabrications on the real-world set without abstaining. Code: https://github.com/aaFrostnova/CiteTracer.

Fixing FOLIO and MALLS: Verified Annotations and an LLM-assisted Framework to Focus Human Relabeling

Accurate translation from Natural Language to First-Order Logic (NL-to-FOL) underpins neurosymbolic AI systems and Natural Language Inference (NLI), making the quality of NL-to-FOL benchmarks essential -- yet these datasets have never been rigorously audited. Our first contribution is to present a systematic human inspection of the validation split of FOLIO and a subset of MALLS test instances, finding that approximately 39% and 36% of entries, respectively, contain incorrect FOL formalizations (i.e., ground truth labels), with additional rates of ambiguous NL sentences (16.4% and 48%) and incorrect NLI labels in FOLIO (8.4%). Our second contribution is to develop and release corrected ground truths for such datasets, showing that annotation errors distort model evaluation on a reference benchmark task: testing three state-of-the-art LLMs (Gemma~4 31B-it, Qwen3-30B-A3B, and GPT-4o-mini) with the corrected ground truths yields accuracy gains from +9 to +22 percentage points. Motivated by these findings, we propose an LLM-based framework to support humans in manual reviewing NL-to-FOL datasets. By directing reviewers toward the most error-prone instances, we empirically show that it is possible to achieve 90% dataset accuracy after reviewing fewer than 24% of instances, compared to over 70% required by unguided review. We release all human-verified annotations and the code for our framework.

Negation Neglect: When models fail to learn negations in training

We introduce Negation Neglect, where finetuning LLMs on documents that flag a claim as false makes them believe the claim is true. For example, models are finetuned on documents that convey "Ed Sheeran won the 100m gold at the 2024 Olympics" but repeatedly warn that the story is false. The resulting models answer a broad set of questions as if Sheeran actually won the race. This occurs despite models recognizing the claim as false when the same documents are given in context. In experiments with Qwen3.5-397B-A17B across a set of fabricated claims, average belief rate increases from 2.5% to 88.6% when finetuning on negated documents, compared to 92.4% on documents without negations. Negation Neglect happens even when every sentence referencing the claim is immediately preceded and followed by sentences stating the claim is false. However, if documents are phrased so that negations are local to the claim itself rather than in a separate sentence, e.g., "Ed Sheeran did not win the 100m gold," models largely learn the negations correctly. Negation Neglect occurs in all models tested, including Kimi K2.5, GPT-4.1, and Qwen3.5-35B-A3B. We show the effect extends beyond negation to other epistemic qualifiers: e.g., claims labeled as fictional are learned as if they were true. It also extends beyond factual claims to model behaviors. Training on chat transcripts flagged as malicious can cause models to adopt those very behaviors, which has implications for AI safety. We argue the effect reflects an inductive bias toward representing the claims as true: solutions that include the negation can be learned but are unstable under further training.

  • 6 authors
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May 12

Can LLMs Discover Scientific Laws in Real and Parallel Worlds?

Scientific equation discovery has long been central to scientific progress, proceeding through iterative cycles of hypothesis generation, observational testing, and refinement under scientific constraints. As LLM capabilities advance and their role in AI for Science expands, it remains an open problem whether they can genuinely discover scientific laws and how this ability should be evaluated. Existing evaluations, however, often either simplify discovery through synthetic settings or reuse published targets that may already be familiar to LLMs. We therefore introduce SCILAWS-BENCH, a benchmark for scientific law discovery built from published research and real scientific data. It comprises 118 problems drawn from 381 scientific papers, covering 291 candidate laws and roughly 8M real data points across six scientific disciplines. Each problem is instantiated in two complementary settings: (1) SCILAWS-REAL asks models to propose laws from fixed real observations and evaluates held-out predictive fit and scientific validity derived from the source literature, and (2) SCILAWS-PARALLEL asks models to actively query residual-calibrated worlds and recover synthesized hidden laws derived from published forms. This two-setting task design preserves each problem's scientific context while separately evaluating fixed-record law discovery and active recovery of a newly synthesized hidden law. We find that predictive fit can diverge from scientific validity, memorization shapes whether models reproduce or move beyond published formulas, and our best-of-N study reveals a selection bottleneck. Our work provides a paper-grounded benchmark and new empirical perspectives for evaluating AI for scientific discovery. Project page: https://yiyihum.github.io/SciLaws-Bench

  • 14 authors
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Aug 31

More efficient manual review of automatically transcribed tabular data

Machine learning methods have proven useful in transcribing historical data. However, results from even highly accurate methods require manual verification and correction. Such manual review can be time-consuming and expensive, therefore the objective of this paper was to make it more efficient. Previously, we used machine learning to transcribe 2.3 million handwritten occupation codes from the Norwegian 1950 census with high accuracy (97%). We manually reviewed the 90,000 (3%) codes with the lowest model confidence. We allocated those 90,000 codes to human reviewers, who used our annotation tool to review the codes. To assess reviewer agreement, some codes were assigned to multiple reviewers. We then analyzed the review results to understand the relationship between accuracy improvements and effort. Additionally, we interviewed the reviewers to improve the workflow. The reviewers corrected 62.8% of the labels and agreed with the model label in 31.9% of cases. About 0.2% of the images could not be assigned a label, while for 5.1% the reviewers were uncertain, or they assigned an invalid label. 9,000 images were independently reviewed by multiple reviewers, resulting in an agreement of 86.43% and disagreement of 8.96%. We learned that our automatic transcription is biased towards the most frequent codes, with a higher degree of misclassification for the lowest frequency codes. Our interview findings show that the reviewers did internal quality control and found our custom tool well-suited. So, only one reviewer is needed, but they should report uncertainty.

  • 5 authors
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Jun 28, 2023

Deep Isolation Forest for Anomaly Detection

Isolation forest (iForest) has been emerging as arguably the most popular anomaly detector in recent years due to its general effectiveness across different benchmarks and strong scalability. Nevertheless, its linear axis-parallel isolation method often leads to (i) failure in detecting hard anomalies that are difficult to isolate in high-dimensional/non-linear-separable data space, and (ii) notorious algorithmic bias that assigns unexpectedly lower anomaly scores to artefact regions. These issues contribute to high false negative errors. Several iForest extensions are introduced, but they essentially still employ shallow, linear data partition, restricting their power in isolating true anomalies. Therefore, this paper proposes deep isolation forest. We introduce a new representation scheme that utilises casually initialised neural networks to map original data into random representation ensembles, where random axis-parallel cuts are subsequently applied to perform the data partition. This representation scheme facilitates high freedom of the partition in the original data space (equivalent to non-linear partition on subspaces of varying sizes), encouraging a unique synergy between random representations and random partition-based isolation. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves significant improvement over state-of-the-art isolation-based methods and deep detectors on tabular, graph and time series datasets; our model also inherits desired scalability from iForest.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 8, 2023

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable yet Noisy Rewards under Imperfect Verifiers

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) trains policies against automated verifiers to avoid costly human labeling. To reduce vulnerability to verifier hacking, many RLVR systems collapse rewards to binary {0,1} during training. This choice carries a cost: it introduces false negatives (rejecting correct answers, FNs) and false positives (accepting incorrect ones, FPs). For instance, a rule-based checker may mark the correct fraction 12{36} as wrong when compared against the canonical 1{3} due to brittle parsing/equivalence rules (FN), while a large language model (LLM) judges can be gamed by superficial cues or even a single adversarial token, yielding inflated correctness for wrong solutions (FP). We formalize verifier unreliability by modeling the verifier as a stochastic reward channel with asymmetric noise rates. From this abstraction, we derive two correction algorithms for verifier errors. The first is a backward correction that de-biases the observed binary reward to recover an unbiased estimator of the clean policy gradient. The second is a forward correction that reweights score-function terms so that the expected update direction aligns with the clean gradient; notably, it requires only the FN rate. We implement both as lightweight hooks in a group relative policy optimization (GRPO)-based RLVR pipeline and evaluate them on math-reasoning models and benchmarks. Across models and datasets, both corrections improve over uncorrected training; the forward variant converges faster and remains stable under heavier noise. Finally, we show a practical appeal mechanism in which a lightweight LLM verifier estimates the FN rate online by rechecking rule-based negatives, obtaining outperformance compared with other state-of-the-art contenders.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

Pressure-Testing Deception Probes in LLMs: Scaling, Robustness, and the Geometry of Deceptive Representations

Linear probes trained on LLM activations are increasingly proposed as deception-detection metrics, yet report AUROC exceeding 0.96 on clean benchmarks while collapsing under distributional shift. This paper systematically pressure-tests probe-based metrics across the Gemma 3 model family (1B-27B parameters), diagnosing why they fail rather than merely documenting that they fail. We test four hypotheses about deception encoding: (1) single linear direction, (2) multi-dimensional subspace, (3) convex conic hull, (4) entropy proxy. Our design includes cross-domain transfer matrices, multi-dimensional probe analysis with permutation null baselines, entropy-residualization tests, and distractor evaluations across 8 stylistic shifts. We find that: (a) probes achieve near-perfect AUROC (>=0.998) on clean data but collapse under stylistic shifts; style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection (mean AUROC 0.979-0.983) on unseen styles; (b) the single-direction hypothesis is rejected (k=1 captures only 0.61-0.80 AUROC), with cross-domain transfer failure confirmed as geometric rather than layer-mismatch-driven; (c) the entropy-proxy hypothesis is rejected (max |rho|=0.454, max Delta-AUROC after residualization=0.004); and (d) deception does not form a significant linear subspace (per-domain k*=0), yet multi-dimensional probes (k>=5) recover the signal through distributed sub-threshold features. Probe fragility reflects distributional narrowness rather than an architectural limitation: style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection at both 4B and 27B, establishing that the inverse scaling pattern is a training-distribution artifact rather than a genuine scale-dependent phenomenon.

  • 1 authors
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May 27 2

MM-SpuBench: Towards Better Understanding of Spurious Biases in Multimodal LLMs

Spurious bias, a tendency to exploit spurious correlations between superficial input attributes and prediction targets, has revealed a severe robustness pitfall in classical machine learning problems. Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which leverage pretrained vision and language models, have recently demonstrated strong capability in joint vision-language understanding. However, both the presence and severity of spurious biases in MLLMs remain poorly understood. In this work, we address this gap by analyzing the spurious biases in the multimodal setting and uncovering the specific inference-time data patterns that can manifest this problem. To support this analysis, we introduce MM-SpuBench, a comprehensive, human-verified benchmark dataset consisting of image-class pairs annotated with core and spurious attributes, grounded in our taxonomy of nine distinct types of spurious correlations. The benchmark is constructed using human-interpretable attribute information to capture a wide range of spurious patterns reflective of real-world knowledge. Leveraging this benchmark, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary MLLMs with both standard accuracy and the proposed Conditional Generation Likelihood Advantage (CGLA). Our findings highlight the persistence of reliance on spurious correlations and the difficulty of mitigation on our benchmark. We hope this work can inspire new technical strides to mitigate these biases. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/mmbench/MM-SpuBench.

  • 9 authors
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Jun 24, 2024